Quan Ly Rui Ro Du An XD Cho SASCO 19-5-2016

QUN L RI RO D N
U T XY DNG
Ti liu lu hnh ni b
Ging vin: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn, IU VNU HCM
Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn
QUN L RI RO D N
XY DNG
Ti liu lu hnh ni b
Ging vin: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn, IU VNU HCM
Tnh hung nghin cu

1. Theo cc anh/ch s c tai nn trong tnh
hung c th phng trnh c khng?
2. Nu cu tr li l c, lm n cho bit
nu l nh qun l d n, bn s lm g
phng trnh nhng tai nn nh th?
1.1. CC KHI NIM C BN
RUI RO LA G ?
o Cha c nh ngha thng nht v ri ro
o Theo trng phi truyn thng, ri ro c xem l
s khng may mn, s tn tht mt mt, nguy
him.
o Ri ro c xem l iu khng lnh, iu khng tt, bt
ng xy n.
o Ri ro l s tn tht v ti sn hay l s gim st li
nhun thc t so vi li nhun d kin.
o Ri ro cn c hiu l nhng bt trc ngoi mun
xy ra trong qu trnh kinh doanh, sn xut ca
doanh nghip, tc ng xu n s tn ti v pht
trin ca mt doanh nghip
RUI RO LA G ?
o Theo trng phi hin i, ri ro (risk) l s bt
trc c th o lng c, va mang tnh tch
cc, va mang tnh tiu cc.
o Ri ro c th mang n nhng tn tht mt mt cho
con ngi nhng cng c th mang li nhng li ch,
nhng c hi.
o Nu tch cc nghin cu ri ro, ngi ta c th tm ra
nhng bin php phng nga, hn ch nhng ri ro
tiu cc, n nhn nhng c hi mang li kt qu tt
p cho tng lai
RUI RO LA G ?
o Ri ro ph thuc vo ng cnh, nu con ngi khng
c khi nim hoc khng lin quan n th h khng c
ri ro.
o V d tri ma s l ri ro vi ngi i ng
nhng ngi trong phng ng kn ca, khng b
nh hng th khng c ri ro.
o Ri ro ph thuc vo cm nhn ca tng ngi
o Ngi ny thch nh bi, ngi khc li khng thch
RUI RO D N LA G ?
o Ri ro d n l mt s kin c th e do v cn
tr vic thc hin d n theo tin thi gian v
trong khun kh ngn sch (http://voer.edu.vn/c/xac-dinh-ruiro/10d828a4/16f382b1)
QUN L RUI RO D N
o Qun l ri ro d n l qu trnh
o nhn dng,
o xc nh, phn tch, o lng mc ri ro,
o trn c s la chn, trin khai v qun l cc hot
ng i ph vi ri ro m c th xy ra trong sut
vng i d n
QUN L RUI RO D N
o Qun l ri ro nhm ngn chn v gim thiu
nhng tn tht do ri ro gy ra cho d n
o Qun l ri ro l qu trnh lin tc trong tt c
cc giai on ca vng i d n
10
1.2. QUY TRNH QUN L

RI RO D N
11
QUY TRNH QUN L RI RO D N
4. Phn tch
nh lng
ri ro
3. Phn
tch nh
tnh ri
ro
5. Lp k hoch
i ph ri ro
6. Kim
sot ri
ro
Qu trnh
qun l ri
ro
1. Lp k
2. Xc nh
ri ro
hoch qun l
ri ro
12
1.3. K HOCH QUN L

RI RO D N
13
LP K HOCH QUN L RI RO D N
(KHQLRRDA)
o KHQLRRDA nh r lm th no m cc ri
ro lin quan n d n .. s c nhn dng ,
phn tch v qun l.
o N trnh by cc hot ng qun l ri ro s
c thc hin, c ghi li v c theo
di xuyn sut vng i d n v cung cp
cc thc hnh ng ph theo th t u tin
vi cc ri ro
14
LP K HOCH QUN L RI RO D N
o L bc u tin nhng c bit quan trng
bi v n quyt nh s thnh cng ca 5 bc
cn li
o Ti sao quan trng?
15
CU TRC CA MT K HOCH QUN

L RI RO D N
1. M U
1.1
Mc ch ca K hoch qun l ri ro d n
(KHQLRRDA)
2 TH TC QUN L RI RO D N
2.1
Quy trnh
2.2
Nhn dng ri ro
2.3
Phn tch ri ro
2.3.1
Phn tch nh tnh
2.3.2
Phn tch nh lng
2.4
K hoch phn ng vi ri ro
2.5
Theo di, kim sot v bo co ri ro
16
CU TRC CA MT K HOCH QuN

L RI RO D N
3 CC CNG C
PH DUYT K HOCH QUN L RI RO D N
CC PH LC
17
1.4. XC NH RI RO
18
Xc nh
ri ro
Nhn
thc ri
ro
Nhn
dng ri
ro
19
1.4. XC NH RI RO - NHN
THC RI RO
NHN THC RI RO
Ban qun l d n t nh gi: c hay chng d n
m h ang qun l s i din vi cc ri ro
Nu cu tr li l c, th d n ca bn s c th gp
ri ro v bn nn nhanh chng thc hin bc k tip.
Kinh nghim v trc gic l cha kha ca bc
ny
Pht trin RBS (Risk Breakdown Structure) nhn
ng ngun ca ri ro
20
21
Bin son & ging: TS. Lu Trng Vn
22
23
24
RBS for Construction Design (Chapman, 2001)
25
1.4. XC NH RI RO - NHN DNG RI RO

Ban qun l d n cn c vo:
Kinh nghim QLDA
Tnh cht d n
Mi trng xung quanh d n
Cc bn tham gia d n
Quy nh ca a phng

Xc nh cc ri ro m d n c th gnh chu
26
1.4. NHN DNG RI RO - cc cng c
Danh mc ca cc ri ro
S nhn qu
NHN DNG
RI RO
Phng vn
27
Mt danh mc ca nhng ri ro
Bn c th t xy dng checklist t:
Cc bi bo khoa hc cng b
Cc sch v QLDA v qun l ri ro
C s d liu ca cng ty QLDA
kin chuyn gia
Bien soan va giang: Luu Truong Van, Ph.D candidate, PKNU, Busan, Korea
28
V d Danh mc kim tra

Kieu cua rui ro
Nha thau
Chu au t
T van
ieu kien a chat

S thay oi cua khoi lng
Kh hau
Sai lam ve tai chanh
Sai lam cua thau phu
Tai nan tai cong trng
S thieu kha nang cua quan ly
Lam phat
S tr hoan trong cong viec
Kiem soat ve moi trng
nh cong
Mau thuan trong tai lieu thit k
Bien soan va giang: Luu Truong Van, Ph.D candidate, PKNU, Busan, Korea
Thiet ke co sai sot
29
1.4. NHN DNG RI RO - cc cng c S

nhn qu
30
1.4. NHN DNG RI RO - cc cng c Phng

vn
Phng vn cc nhn vt ch cht ca

cc bn tham gia d n lun ra
nhng ri ro tim nng m d n c th
i din.
Thit k bng cu hi => Mt cng vic
khng n gin
31
1.4. NHN DNG RI RO - cc cng c Cc

k thut khc
Brainstorming: nhn dng SWOT (c

hi/nguy c v im mnh/im yu) ca
d n
32
Ma trn SWOT
S iem manh
S1- Ban giam oc co nhieu kinh nghiem trong
quan ly thi cong, co moi quan he rong
rai vi khach hang.
S2 Co uy tn vi khach hang truyen thong
S3 Co kha nang canh tranh ve gia
S4 Co lc lng thi cong nhieu kinh nghiem
W iem yeu
W1 Thiet b thi cong lac hau
W2 Cha co giai phap quan ly chat
lng, tien o, cung ng vat t toan
dien.
W3 Lc lng can bo ky thuat ke tha t,
cha co nhieu kinh nghiem
W4 Hieu qua s dung von cha cao
O C hoi
O1 Von au t cho XDCB tang
O2 Tang trng kinh te mc cao
O3 Nhng thay oi cac qui nh phap
luat ve quan ly va au t trong xay
dng
O4 Qua trnh hoi nhap kinh te khu vc
Ket hp S/ O
SO-1: Gi vng va phat trien toi a th trng
truyen thong trong tnh
(O1,O2,S1,S2,S3,S4)
SO-2: M rong th trng ra cac tnh lan can
(O1, O2, O4, S3, S4)
Ket hp W/ O
WO-1: au t thiet b thi cong e ap ng
yeu cau khach hang ve chat lng,
tien o. (O1, O2, W1)
WO-2: Tng bc xay dng he thong quan
ly chat lng theo tieu chuan ISO
9001:2000 (O1, O2, O4, W2)
WO-3: Thu hut va ao tao lc lng can
bo ky thuat (O1, O2, O4, W3)
WO-4:Tang cng hieu qua cong tac thu
hoi von (O1, O2, O3, W4)
T Nguy c
T1 Tnh trang giai ngan von cham
T2 Canh tranh khong lanh manh trong
au thau
T3 Canh tranh trong nganh ngay cang
gay gat.
T4 Cac cong ty t nhan, co phan trong
khu vc ngay cang phat trien ln
manh.
Ket hp S/ T
ST-1: ay manh cong tac tiep th, quang ba
thng hieu. (T2, T3, S1, S2, S3, S4)
Ket hp W/ T
WT-1: Han che nhan thau cac cong trnh
cha co san ve von (T1, W4)
33
1.4. XC NH RI RO - cc cng c Cc k
thut khc
Nghin cu nhng d n tng t hon

thnh, t nhn ra nhng ri ro tim nng
cho d n ca chng ta
Phn tch cc gi nh v cc rng buc ca
d n lun ra nhng ri ro tim nng m d
n c th i din
Phn on ca chuyn gia
34
1.5. PHN TCH RI RO
35
1.5. Phn tch nh tnh ri ro

y l giai on nh tnh 2 thuc tnh chnh ca ri ro: kh
nng xut hin (probablity) v tc ng (impact)
Thng thng, kh nng xut hin (probablity) c chia ra
3 mc: thp (low), trung bnh (medium) v cao (high).
Thng thng, tc ng (Impact) c chia ra 4 mc: c th
b qua (nil), thp (low), trung bnh (medium) v nghim trng
(severe). Cng c khi chia lm 3 mc: thp, trung bnh v cao.
Tch hp kh nng xut hin (probablity) v tc ng
(Impact) thnh 1 ma trn (cc ti liu English gi l PI
matrix)
36
V d v nh ngha mc kh nng
xy ra ri ro
Kha nang
rui ro xay
ra
Mc o
Mo ta
Kha nang t (low)
Hon ton khong the

xay ra hoc Khong the
xay ra nhng co the nhan
biet c
Co the xay ra
Co kha nang
(Medium)
Kha nang cao (High) Xay ra thng xuyen
37
V d v nh ngha mc nh gi tc ng ca
ri ro tin chm
Mc o anh
hng
Mc o
Mo ta
Co the bo qua c (Nil)
Khong tang chi ph, tien o tre

khong ang ke
Thp (Low)
Gia tang mot t ve chi ph, va lam

tre mot t tien o d an
Anh hng (Medium)
Tre nhieu va gia tang chi ph
Anh hng cao (Severe)
Tre cc nhieu va gia tang chi ph

rat cao, khong tuan thu tieu
chuan ky thuat
38
1.5. Phn tch nh tnh ri ro
39
1.5. nh tnh ri ro cc cng c

Kinh nghim
Phn tch c s d liu

ca nhng d n tng t
Kh nng xut
hin ca ri ro
D liu thng k c cng b
40
1.5. nh tnh ri ro cc cng c
kin chuyn gia / kinh nghim
C s d liu
ca nhng d n tng t
hon thnh
Tc ng ca
ri ro
D liu thng k c cng b
41
Stt
Ri ro
Mc Tc ng n kt qu
d n
Gii php i ph cc
ri ro
1 Kt qu kho Trung
st a cht sai bnh
lch vi thc
t
Nn mng cng trnh ln Tng cng gim st

st;
Phi iu chnh trong

qu trnh thi cng, pht
sinh kinh ph
Trung
H s k thut bnh
sai st,thiu
hng mc
La chn nh thu c
nhiu kinh nghim,
nh gi h s thit k
ngay t lc ban u tham
gia u thu
D n ko di nhiu nm,
3 Khng hong Nghim Gi c leo thang, nh
kinh t
trng thu gp kh khn trong cn tnh n h s trt
ti chnh, khng thc
gi, xc nh cc phng
hin cam kt theo hp
thc hp ng kinh t
Binng
son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn ph hp
42
1.5. Phn tch nh lng ri ro

Dng phng php chm im xp hng ri ro
Thang im l ty chn, nhng thng thng chn thang
im 10 hay 5.
Thang im 5:
Ty theo kh nng xut hin ca ri ro m ngi nh gi
s chn mc (1 l thp v 5 l cao)
Ty theo mc tc ng ca ri ro m ngi nh gi s
chn mc ph hp (1 l thp v 5 l nghim trng)
im ca ri ro = im kh nng xut hin * im tc
ng
43

ST
T M t ri ro
Kt qu kho
st a cht
sai lch vi
1
thc t
H s k thut
sai st, thiu
2
hng mc

Kh
nng
xut
hin
Tc
Xp hng
ng
ri ro
Bn gnh
chu
ch yu
15
Ch d n
Ch d n
44
1.5. Phn tch nh lng ri ro ma

trn nh lng ri ro
45
Xc sut xy ra ri ro
Cao
Trung
Cao
Cao
Thp
Trung
Cao
Thp
Thp
Trung
TB
Thp
Thp
TB
Cao
Mc nh hng
46

cc cng c khc
Cc cng c khc nh lng nhng ri ro c

th:
Phng php EMV (Expected Monetary Value): l
trng hp c bit ca PP cy quyt nh; dng
ra quyt nh.
Cy quyt nh (decision tree): dng ra quyt
nh
Phn tch nhy:
M phng (simulation): thng c dng
lng ha cc ri ro ti chnh
kin chuyn gia
47
1.6. LP K HOCH NG
PH RI RO
48
1.6. Lp k hoch i ph ri ro
K hoch i ph ri ro l tp hp cc bin
php phn ng khi ri ro xy ra
LP K
HOCH
I PH
RI RO
D N
QU
TRNH
LA CHN
QU
TRNH
XUT
CC HOT NG NHM TN
DNG C HI V GIM BT HIM
HA CA RI RO I VI D N
49
Nguyn l:
Tp trung cc n lc qun l vo nhng ri ro c
im xp hng cao.
a ra cc gii php ng ph nu nhng ri ro
ni trn xut hin
u tin nhn lc sn sng ng ph vi ri ro
C th b qua hoc khng tp trung vo cc ri ro
c im xp hng thp
50
51
Cn nhc thi i vi ri ro a ra cc
phng thc ph hp
Thng thng, c 4 phng thc i ph ri
ro:
52
Phng thc i ph ri ro
N TRNH RI RO
CHP
NHN RI
RO
Text
Text
Text
Text
GIM NH RI RO
CHUYN
GIAO
RI RO
53
1.6. Lp k hoch i ph ri ro V d v cc phng

thc i ph ri ro
Trnh n ri ro:
Mc d khng th loi tr c mi ri ro, con ngi
thng tm cch trnh n mt s ri ro no
V d:
Thay v chn 1 nh thu mi vi kinh nghim km, bn
c th chn nh thu c uy tn v tin cy. Tt nhin gi
c s cao hn. chnh l s nh i khi trnh n ri
ro.
Gim phm vi hot ng trnh cc hot ng c ri
ro cao
54
1.6. Lp k hoch i ph ri ro V d v cc
phng thc i ph ri ro
Chuyn giao ri ro:
Thng lin quan n khon ph m bn th 3 phi
gnh chu ri ro
Cc bin php thng dng:
- Mua bo him
- Bo lnh tin tm ng
- Bo m thc hin hp ng
- Hp ng trn gi
-
55
Dng iu khon hp ng chuyn ri ro
56
phng thc i ph ri ro
Gim nh ri ro:
L tm cch gim bt xc sut hoc mc tc ng
bt li n mt ngng chp nhn no
Cc bin php thng dng:
- Kho st k lng
- La chn nh cung cp n nh
- D phng thi gian
- D phng chi ph
-
57
phng thc i ph ri ro
Chp nhn ri ro:
Ban QLDA quyt nh khng thay k hoch d
n i ph vi mt ri ro no hoc l khng c
kh nng xy dng bt c chin lng i ph ph
hp no
Chp nhn tch cc: pht trin mt k hoch ng ph
Chp nhn tiu cc: Khng lm g ht cho n ri ro
xut hin
58
1.7. Kim sot ri ro

y l qu trnh duy tr vic kim sot cc ri ro
xc nh bc 2, phn tch li cc ri ro
xy ra, hiu chnh cc hnh ng trong k hoch
ng ph.
Nu ri ro thc t xy ra khng nm trong danh
mc ri ro c xc nh t trc b sung
v iu chnh danh mc ri ro bc 2
Rt ra cc bi hc kinh nghim ri t liu ha v
lu tr cc bi hc kinh nghim.
59
Bi tp nhm v Qun l ri ro
Hy thit lp K HOCH QUN L RI RO cho 01
d n ti cng ty ca cc anh/ch
Xc nh cc ri ro tim nng m d n c th chm trn
Phn tch nh tnh v phn tch nh lng cc ri ro
nhn dng
Theo gc nhn ca ch u t d n, hy xut cc
bin php i ph vi cc ri ro
60
Xin cam n!
Chuc cac ban, cac SV at nhieu thanh
qua tot trong cong tac !
61

Quan Ly Rui Ro Du An XD Cho SASCO 19-5-2016

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Quan Ly Rui Ro Du An XD Cho SASCO 19-5-2016

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

QUN L RI RO D N

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

Tnh hung nghin cu

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

1.1. CC KHI NIM C BN

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

1.2. QUY TRNH QUN L

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

QUY TRNH QUN L RI RO D N

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

1.3. K HOCH QUN L

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

CU TRC CA MT K HOCH QUN

CU TRC CA MT K HOCH QuN

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

Bin son & ging: TS. Lu Trng Vn

Bin son & ging: TS. Lu Trng Vn

Bin son & ging: TS. Lu Trng Vn

RBS for Construction Design (Chapman, 2001)

Bin son & ging: TS. Lu Trng Vn

1.4. XC NH RI RO - NHN DNG RI RO

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

1.4. NHN DNG RI RO - cc cng c

Bin son & ging: TS. Lu Trng Vn

1.4. NHN DNG RI RO - cc cng c

1.4. NHN DNG RI RO - cc cng c

V d Danh mc kim tra

ieu kien a chat

Thiet ke co sai sot

1.4. NHN DNG RI RO - cc cng c S

Bin son & ging: TS. Lu Trng Vn

1.4. NHN DNG RI RO - cc cng c Phng

Phng vn cc nhn vt ch cht ca

Bin son & ging: TS. Lu Trng Vn

1.4. NHN DNG RI RO - cc cng c Cc

Brainstorming: nhn dng SWOT (c

Bin son & ging: TS. Lu Trng Vn

Bin son & ging: TS. Lu Trng Vn

Nghin cu nhng d n tng t hon

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

1.5. PHN TCH RI RO

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

1.5. Phn tch nh tnh ri ro

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

Kha nang t (low)

Hon ton khong the

Bin son & ging: TS. Lu Trng Vn

Co the bo qua c (Nil)

Khong tang chi ph, tien o tre

Gia tang mot t ve chi ph, va lam

Anh hng (Medium)

Tre nhieu va gia tang chi ph