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Decision Making: The Essence of Managers' Job: by Muhammad Iqbal Malik
Decision Making: The Essence of Managers' Job: by Muhammad Iqbal Malik
Key Topics
Introduction
The Decision-making process
Decision-making models
Decision Styles
A discussion on Group Decisions
Part I
Introduction
Organizations
Organizations are systems
Involve people, structure and a
common purpose
Have limited resources
Need to perform a series of functions to
meet its objectives
Managers
Managers are responsible for effective
and efficient execution of these
organizational functions.
A typical manager performs a number
of functions that are categorized as:
Interpersonal
Informational
Decisional
Managers
One of the key traits that distinguish
managers from operatives is the ability to
make independent decisions.
Part II
Decision-making
What is decision-making?
The word decision is defined as:
A choice between two or more
alternatives.
Thus decision-making can be defined as:
the selection of a course of action from
among alternatives .
Decision-making Process
Identifying a problem
Identifying decision criteria
Allocating weights to criteria
Developing alternatives
Analyzing alternatives
Selecting an alternative
Implementing the alternative
Evaluation (of decision effectiveness)
Problem Definition
Problem is a discrepancy (difference)
between an existing and a desired state.
Example:
The manager has resigned, and we need
another manager
Here the phrase manager has resigned
reflects the current state while need
another manager represents a desired
state.
Weight
Relevant qualifications
Leadership skills
Communication skills
Analytical skills
Professional experience
Developing Alternatives
Involves defining the possible
alternatives (or choices) that would
resolve the problem.
In our case, the alternatives would be a
list of candidates or job applicants.
Analyzing Alternatives
Alternatives are rated and analyzed
on the basis of the criteria
The rating can be based on a specified
scale, say 1 5 etc.
Rating may be subjective in nature
and thus,may depend on the judgment
of the individual(s)
Qualification
Leadership
Communication
Analysis
Experience
Kamran Ashraf
Rahila Mushtaq
Tasaduq Hussain
Zubair Ahmed
Maliha Javed
Qualification
Leadership
Communication
Analysis
Experience
Total
Kamran Ashraf
15
38
Rahila Mushtaq
12
33
12
10
42
Zubair Ahmed
25
16
54
Maliha Javed
12
25
12
12
63
Tasaduq Hussain
Selecting an alternative
Involves choosing the best alternative,
based on the above rating and analysis
Generally implies selecting the
alternative with the highest score.
Evaluation
Evaluation forms an integral part of any
process
Involves evaluation of the outcome based on
the desired goal and criteria
Involves assessing the effectiveness and
efficiency of the outcome (or the entire
process)
In case of any undesired results, each step
of the process is carefully reviewed to trace
the root causes
Decision-making Models
Model
A simplified representation or description
of a system or complex entity
Examples
A model of a building
A globe (Earth model)
Rational/Bounded Rational
So Rational and Bounded Rational Models
are cognitive models that describe how
managers make rational decisions
2. Set goals
External and
internal
Environ. forces
3. Search for
alternative
solutions
6. Implement
the solution
selected
5. Choose 4. Compare
among
and evaluate
alternative
solution
solutions
Intuition
An unconscious process of making
decisions on the basis of experience and
judgment
Intuition
Involves gut feeling
May also have rational basis
The feeling arises from past
experience and knowledge
Involves quicker response
Does not involve systematic analysis
Decision Types
Effective managers make various kinds of
decisions. In general, these decisions are
either
Programmed decisions
Non-programmed decisions
Programmed Decisions
A decision that is repetitive and routine
A definite method for its solution can be
established
Does not have to be treated a new each time
it occurs
Procedures are often already laid out
Examples: pricing standard customer
orders, determining billing dates, recording
office supplies etc.
Non-programmed Decisions
A decision that is novel (new or unique)
or Ill structured
No established methods exist, because
it has never occurred before or because
It is too complex
Non-programmed Decisions
Organizational
Levels
Nature of
Problems
Nature of
Decision-making
Non-programmed Decisions
Are tough decisions that involve risk
and uncertainty and
call for entrepreneurial abilities
Such decisions draw heavily on the
analytical abilities of the manager
Examples: Moving into a new market,
investing in a new unproven
technology, changing strategic direction
Decision Styles
Decision-making, though a rational
process does include some subjective
elements
Thus in real organizational settings, the
quality of decision does depend on the
ability, style and approach of the
manager
Group Decision-making
The factors requiring group decisions
include:
Involving sensitive issues
High cost alternatives
Involving very high risk factor
Strategic impact
Short time
Unimportant to group
Manager can take decision
Dominate the decision
Destructive conflict
Members hesitant
Confidential data
Incapability of members
Managers dominance
Indirect effect on group members
Brainstorming
Improving Group
Decision-making