Current

Fixed Cost
Demand
FearUs
Oops
Revenue
Cash Flow
Proposed
Fixed Cost
Demand
Probability

600000
0
0.2
0
0.1
0
600000
0

1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2

2
0.4
0.8
0.4
0.8

3
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.6

4
0.2
0.8
0.1
0.4

1
0.05
0.05

2
0.14
0.28

3
0.17
0.51

4
0.24
0.96

-600
0.8
288000
592425
769.691497

-450
0.9
182250

-300
0.8
72000

-150
0.1
2250

0
0.23
0

-600
0.02
7200
67500
259.807621

-450
0.05
10125

-300
0.14
12600

-150
0.17
3825

0
0.24
0

0
0.02
0.32
3
1.73205081

1
0.05
0.45

2
0.14
0.56

3
0.17
0.17

4
0.24
0

Loss
Revenue
Cash Flow

525000
0
0.02
0
3000
576000
48000

Revised
Fixed Cost
Loss
Revenue
Cash Flow

300000
102000
270000
-132000

Cash Flow
Probability
Variance
Std Dev
Cash Flow
Probability
Variance
Std Dev
Demand
Probability
Variance
Std Dev

Covariance
X
Y
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
Variance
Std Dev

Prob
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4

0.82
0.90553851

E(X)
0.08
0.07
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.05
0.02
0.01
0
0
0.07
0.21
0.1
0.02
0
0
0.03
0.06
0.01
0
0.01
0.11
0.02
0.06

E(Y)
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

X-E(X)
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

-2
-1
0
1
2
-2
-1
0
1
2
-2
-1
0
1
2
-2
-1
0
1
2
-2
-1
0
1
2

2
4 PLANES
2

5
0.17
0.85

6
0.14
0.84

7
0.05
0.35

8
0.02
0.16

150
0.14
3150

300
0.19
17100

450
0.03
6075

600
0.06
21600

150
0.17
3825

300
0.14
12600

450
0.05
10125

600
0.02
7200

5
0.17
0.17

6
0.14
0.56

7
0.05
0.45

8
0.02
0.32

Y-E(Y)

Prod
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2

Prob*Prod
4
0.32
2
0.14
0
0
-2
-0.02
-4
-0.04
2
0.04
1
0.05
0
0
-1
-0.01
-2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-2
0
-1
0
0
0
1
0.06
2
0.02
-4
0
-2
-0.02
0
0
2
0.04
4
0.24