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NHM CH TIU NG

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Contents
1

Thi gian hon vn c chit khu

Hin gi thu nhp thun

Sut li nhun ni ti

So snh ch tiu NPV v IRR

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Ti sao phi dng ch tiu chit khu trong nh

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gi hiu qu ti chnh cc d n u t?
Dng tin ca d n c lin quan n cc khon chi v thu ca ch
u t. Cc khon chi v thu ny xy ra cc thi im khc nhau
trong vng i ca d n lm xut hin gi tr theo thi gian ca
tin t, do cn quy i chng v cng mt mc thi gian so
snh, tc l xem xt dng tin trong trng thi ng.
Mt d n c th c u t bng nhiu ngun vn khc nhau v
chi ph s dng vn do cng khc nhau. Mt sut chit khu
c la chn tnh ton s i din cho chi ph s dng vn
chung ca d n ng thi b p cho nhng ri ro c th
gp phi v ph hp vi kh nng sinh li m ch u t yu cu.
Cc d n thng c thi gian hot ng ko di trong nhiu nm,
s dng phng php chit khu khi nh gi s gip trnh c
hin tng li gi l tht di tc ng ca lm pht, trt gi.

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Nhm ch tiu ng

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Xt cho trng hp th trng vn hon ho. Nu

ng trn gic th trng vn th mt tr
trng vn hon ho c c trng bi cc
im sau:
Nhu cu v vn lun c tha mn v khng b
rng buc hn ch no.
Li sut phi tr khi i vay vn v li sut nhn c
khi cho vay vn phi bng nhau.
Thng tin v th trng vn c bo m
thng sut cho mi ngi tham gia kinh doanh.
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THI GIAN HON VN C CHIT KHU- DPP

(Discounting Payback Period)

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Thi gian hon vn c chit khu l thi gian cn thit thu
hi hin gi vn u t bng hin gi ngn qu rng

Cng thc:
P(It) = P(CFt)
P(It): hin gi vn u t (tng gi tr quy i v hin ti ca cc khon
u t)
P(CFt): hin gi ngn qu rng (tng gi tr quy i v hin ti ca dng
ngn qu rng)

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V d

Tnh thi gian hon vn c chit khu ca d n K c dng

ngn qu nh sau (cho rng ch u t chn sut li
nhun cn thit l 12%)

Nm

CFt

(2700)

900

950

920

850

700

(triu ng)

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Li gii
Nm
u t

2700

CFt
P(CFt)

-2700

Vn cn li 2700

900

950

920

850

700

803,57

757,33

654,83

540,19

397,19

484,27

-55,92

1896,43 1139,10

DPP = 3 nm 10 thng 23 ngy

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Nhn xt

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Dng ngn qu ca d n c quy i v gi tr tng

ng hin ti, dng tin nhng nm cng v sau cng
c ri ro cao hn do gi tr tng ng ca chng
cng nh i
Thi gian hon vn c chit khu thng t c mun
hn so vi thi gian hon vn khng chit khu
Ch tnh n dng tin trc hon vn

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HiN GI THU NHP THUN- NPV

(Net Present Value)

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NH NGHA

Hin gi thu nhp thun (hay hin gi thun) l

hiu s gia hin gi thu nhp v hin gi chi ph
ca d n u t

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Hin gi thu nhp thun

CNG THC
n

NPV =

t=1

Bt - C t
(1 + i)t

Ch tiu hiu qu: D n c chp nhn nu NPV >0

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V d

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Vi d n K trn y nu ch u t i hi sut
li nhun cn thit l 12% th tr s NPV c
tnh nh sau:
NPV = 803,57+757,33+654,83+540,19+397,19 2700
= 453,11 (triu ng)
NPV > 0 vy d n ny c th u t

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Hin gi thu nhp thun

NHN XT

NPV l mt s tuyt i cho bit li nhun (s tin) m ch u

t k vng t c sau qu trnh u t

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Nhn xt

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u im:
+ C tnh n s bin ng ca cc ch tiu theo
thi gian, tnh n gi tr ca tin t theo thi gian,
tnh ton bao trm c i d n.
+ C tnh n trt gi v lm pht thng qua vic
iu chnh cc ch tiu Bt v Ct v iu chnh tr s
ca i.
+ C tnh n nhn t ri ro ty theo mc tng
tr s sut chit khu i
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Nhn xt

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Nhc im:
+ Ch m bo chnh xc trong iu kin th trng vn hon
ho, trong coi li sut cho vay, li sut i vay v sut thu li
ti thiu i l nh nhau, iu ny khng ph hp vi thc t.
+ Kh d bo chnh xc cc ch tiu cho c i d n.
+ Kt qu la chn phng n ph thuc rt vo ln ca tr
s sut chit khu i v vic xc nh tr s i gp nhiu kh khn.
+ Hiu qu th hin di dng tr s tuyt i, khng c th
hin di dng t s v cha c so snh vi mt ngng
hiu qu c tr s khc 0.
+ Cc phng n yu cu vn u t t v ngn hn thng c
li th hn.

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Ch tiu NPV

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Phm vi ng dng: c p dng cho hu ht cc d n u t.

Nu NPV>0 ta ch nn ni d n c li, khng nn ni d n l
kh thi v tnh kh thi ca d n ph thuc nhiu yu t ch
khng ring g NPV.
Hn na nu NPV >0 m khng ln th cng cha xng
ng u t, ngha l cng cha kh thi.

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SUT LI NHUN NI TI- IRR

(Internal Rate of Return)

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NH NGHA
Sut li nhun ni ti l mt sut chit khu sao
cho hin gi thu nhp bng hin gi chi ph ca
d n u t

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Sut li nhun ni ti

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- Tiu chun ng gi ca mt d n u t da
trn ch s IRR l : khi sut thu li ca mt d
n u t no khng nh hn Sut thu li
ti thiu chp nhn c - MARR (Minimum
Attractive Rate of Return), th d n c gi
l ng gi v mt kinh t.
- Nh vy tiu chun chp nhn hay gt b
mt d n khi phn tch theo sut thu li l gi
tr MARR.
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Nhn xt

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Sut thu li ni ti l mc thu li trung bnh ca ng vn

u t tnh theo cc kt s cn li ca vn u t u
cc thi on (nm) ca dng tin t, do ni ti ca
phng n m suy ra v vi gi thit l cc khon thu
c trong qu trnh khai thc d n u c em u
t li ngay lp tc cho d n vi sut thu li bng chnh
IRR ca d n ang cn tm.
V mt ton hc IRR l mt mc li sut c bit m khi
ta dng n lm h s chit tnh qui i dng tin t
ca phng n th gi tr hin ti ca thu nhp s cn
bng vi gi tr hin ti ca chi ph, ngha l NPV=0.
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Nhn xt

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- Phng n ng gi l phng n c IRR > MARR.

- Tr s IRR khc vi tr s i ch, tr s IRR c tm ra t ni
b phng n ang xt m khng phi c chn t bn ngoi
nh tr s i.
- Ngoi ra tr s IRR cn c hiu l li sut ln nht m
phng n c th chu ng c nu phi vay vn u t.

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Phng php tnh IRR

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(1) Gii phng trnh NPV = 0 tm i. Gi tr ca i

lm cho NPV = 0 chnh l sut li nhun ni ti IRR
(2) Dng phng php gn ng tm IRR
(3) S dng bng tnh Excel

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Tnh IRR bng phng php gn ng

S NPV dng tnh IRR
NPV

NPV1

i1

IRR

i2

i(%)

NPV2

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Tnh IRR bng phng php gn ng

Bc 1: chn i bt k v tnh NPV. Nu NPV qu ln th tng

i ln v tnh li NPV sao cho c c NPV >0 (gn 0), k hiu
l NPV1 ng vi i1
Bc 2: tng i ln v tnh li NPV sao cho c c NPV < 0
(gn 0), k hiu l NPV2 ng vi i2
Bc 3: dng cng thc ni suy tnh IRR
IRR = i1 +

NPV1 (i2 i1)

NPV1 + NPV2

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V d

Tnh IRR ca d n K nh sau:

- Chn i1 = 18% NPV1 = 49,68 (triu ng)
- Chn i2 = 19% NPV2 = - 9,99 (triu ng)
IRR = 18,83%

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SO SNH CH TIU NPV V IRR

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Khi s dng cc ch tiu NPV v IRR nh gi

cc d n u t c th cho ra kt lun trng khp
nhau nhng i khi cng xy ra mu thun.

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So snh ch tiu NPV v IRR

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Trng hp xem xt s ng gi v mt kinh t

ca mt d n u t, hai ch tiu NPV v IRR
cho kt lun ging nhau

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So snh ch tiu NPV v IRR

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Trng hp so snh la chn mt trong hai

d n loi tr nhau th hai ch tiu NPV v IRR
i khi cho cc kt lun mu thun

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So snh ch tiu NPV v IRR

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V d: c 2 d n A v B loi tr nhau vi dng ngn qu

nh sau:
D n

Nm
0

NPV
(i = 10%)

IRR
(%)

(20)

5,36

22%

(20)

10

22,3

6,68

20%

Nguyn nhn no gy ra mu thun khi nh gi d n bng

hai ch tiu trn?

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So snh ch tiu NPV v IRR

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(1) Mc ti u t khc nhau

D n

Nm
0

NPV
(i = 12%)

(150)

100

100

10,5

16,1%

(150)

222,5

10,5

14,5%

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IRR

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So snh ch tiu NPV v IRR

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Phng php dng IRR: ngn qu to ra t d n

c coi nh ti u t vi t sut sinh li ni b
trong thi gian cn li ca d n
Phng php dng NPV: ch coi vic ti u t
ngn qu sinh ra vi mc t sut sinh li yu cu

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So snh ch tiu NPV v IRR

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(2) Quy m d n u t khc nhau

D n

Nm

NPV

IRR

(i = 10%)

(100)

51,23

51,23

51,23

27,4

25%

(400)

190

190

190

72,5

20,1%

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