made by civil engineers, hydrologists and geologists, to define more closely the hydropower projects. Also, withe | | ownggoeal in the second phase, studies were = ‘begun to forecast the most probable | aT demands for electrical energy up to | _[minjate the year 2000, and this ultimately oe formed input data for the optimi- zation process. ‘With the catalogue of hydropower projects established in the second thwart! ot phase, together with geothermal and thermal alternatives including steam and gas turbines, diesel and nuclear units, an optimal development sche- ule was established for the adopted pres caus planning period, | ies Tn the third phase, any possible — rc interconnection system with -neigh- nk of on] [ova tra bouring countries was considered, Soest nas and a financial analysis was made of T the recommended extension pro- ea eget gramme. The interrelations between fo different activities carried out during the establishment of the electricity supply plan are shown schematically in Fig. 1 Sanerten ca era Actual power supply system Soa ie “nese ‘The Frans joscalle’ capaci, avail- re oe able for public supplies is 225-8 MW, 209-6 MW of which correspond to | PZ the interconnected system. The re- | [seiner ics mainder corresponds to capacity | | ' re owned by isolated private and muni- ‘en oman cimenan Sonny "Spam tae cipal supply utilties, The trans- scan mission system includes a 138 kV t 80 jer ation rode Tine, various 69 KV lines, and also Tear cee eae ome 50 KY lines which are now an el ‘Sater being replaced. © The annual electric power gener- poerereara] femmes ation of the interconnected system is ‘ropa coos” | about 108) GWh and the annual rma consumption is about 960 GWh. i ma] Sa apa Demand for electricity : oun een ‘section ‘The estimation of future demand, both in terms of energy and maxi- mum load, has been based on national, sectoral and regional con- sumption forecasts, The national forecast of demand up to the year 2000 was calculated using corre- lations with macro-economic indi- ators, principally gross domestic product. Account was taken of the demand of potential consumers with private generating capacity, the short term installation pro- gramme and mining and industrial projects, which, because of their size, location and other characteristics cannot be adequately represented in the national values, related to overall economic growth, In total, four possible perspectives of economic growth were considered. The most probable gives a peak demand of 1108 MW in the year 1990 and 2986 MW in the year 2000; this demand forecast was used as input data to optimize the construction sequence, In considering the growth in electrical consumption, it is useful to note the effect of the earthquake in 1976, which ‘caused serious damage to the generation, transmission and distribution system. On the day of the earthquake, peak demand of the interconnected system fell to 35,per cent of Fig. 1. Data and logic used to estabih the electrification plan for Guatemala. (ep teeratprc 98 seamen ication of data updating TE | teramion power tins "5 | roto decease peak demand of the previous day. However, it recovered very quickly when compared with the magnitude of the damage inflicted. Taking into consideration the rapid re- covery in generation and consumption of electrical energy in the four weeks following the earthquake, and the fact that it was possible to repair transmission and distribution facilities rapidly, and resume generation, it can be expected. that the highest value of that January will soon be reached and surpassed, In view of the efficiency of the measures which are being undertaken for reconstructing the destroyed parts of Guatemala, an economic boom can be expected in the years to come The high internal demand for power, together with effective international aid for the reconstruction of the ‘economic and social infrastructure, will lead to high growth rates and probably also to higher demand for electrical energy, if it can be supplied.