Assessment of Iran’s Nuclear Program

Press Event
Tuesday, September 14, 2004

Dr. Charles D. Ferguson

Science and Technology Fellow
 Capsule History
• Iranian nuclear program dates back at least to
1957 – Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi signed
a nuclear cooperation agreement with the U.S.
The Shah wanted self-sufficiency 
complete nuclear fuel cycle
• 1979 Islamic revolution to early 1980s: nuclear
hiatus
• Mid-1980s to present: revitalized nuclear
program (e.g., 1985: start of centrifuge program)
 Dual-Use Dilemma
• Two routes to making a nuclear bomb or
civilian nuclear fuel:
enriching uranium
making and separating/reprocessing
plutonium

• Iran has acquired technology to do both 

striving for mastery of both front and back
ends of nuclear fuel cycle
 Latest IAEA Report: Outstanding Issues
Front End of Fuel Cycle:
• Centrifuge Enrichment Program
 P-2 advanced centrifuges: Absence of activity
between 1995 and 2002?
 Enriched uranium contamination
• Uranium Conversion
 37 tons yellowcake to UF6 this month potentially
enough for half dozen crude bombs
• Laser Enrichment

Back End of Fuel Cycle:

• Plutonium Separation Experiments and Heavy Water
Plant and Reactor
 Latest IAEA Report: Outstanding Issues
(continued)
Polonium-210:
 Nuclear weapon initiator or nuclear battery power
source?
 Lab experiments between 1989 and 1993
 Other research?
Lavisan-Shian:
 Site in Tehran where there was alleged nuclear
activities
 Razed to the ground after November 2003
 “possibility of a concealment effort by Iran”
 Environmental samples and documents being
analyzed by IAEA
How Soon Before Iran Can Make a Nuclear Bomb?
• July 29, 2004 EU-Iran meeting:
Could produce enough weapons-grade HEU
within one year of decision to do so
Could make nuclear device within 3 years

• CIA Past Estimates:

 1992: Bomb by 2000
 1995: Bomb by 1998-2000
 2000: Bomb cannot be ruled out
 Feb. 2004: DCI Tenet, “significant challenge for
intelligence to confidently assess whether that
red line had been crossed”