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June 11, 2010 – Housing and Banking caused the Recession and Problems Continue
The 30-Year Treasury auction was well bid, but traded weaker after the auction, which pulled the
10-Year yield well above Wednesday’s auction level. Gold is consolidating gains to Tuesday’s all
time high at $1254.5. The euro is poised for an oversold rally that could test my quarterly pivot
at 1.2450. Crude oil breaks the trading range to the upside so watch my annual pivot at $77.05.
The Power of the Pivots gets the NASDAQ to 2215.
US Treasury Yields –Yesterday’s 30-Year bond auction was bid strongly as the US Treasury sold $13
billion at 4.182% with the issue trading above that yield after the auction. The bid to cover was strong at
2.78 times and the Indirect Bid was 36%, within my 30% to 40% neutral zone. For the 10-Year,
quarterly support is 3.467 with today’s resistance at 3.235. The range on the daily chart appears to be
from the 200-day simple moving average at 3.55 and the year to date low yield at 3.05.
Nymex Crude Oil – shows rising MOJO on its daily chart with the 200-day simple moving average at
$76.75. Today’s support is $72.75 with my annual risky level at $77.05.
Daily Dow: The Dow could not take out its 200-day simple moving average at 10,299 (now 10,310) last
week. MOJO is rising making the daily chart neutral. The 21-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving
averages are resistances at 10,234, 10,665 and 10,310. It seems that the April 26th high at 11,258 ends
the bear market rally since March 2009, and starts the second leg of the multi-year bear market. We
need a weekly close above my annual pivot at 10,379 to extend the rally next week.