MEMORANDUM

Date: June 23, 2010

RE: Public Perceptions of Alberta Government

Spotlight recently commissioned a few questions about the public mood

regarding the current provincial government. Following are the findings
(detailed charts attached):

Right Track/Wrong Track

Spotlight is of the opinion that this is one of the most important questions
that can be asked about government/political performance, but is rarely
included in polls that are released publicly. This essentially asks whether the
public believes the government is more or less on the right track, or is going
down the wrong track. It is a more reliable indicator of their satisfaction with
the government than is any snapshot poll of voting intention.

The results show that 64% of Albertans believe the government is on the right
track more or less, and only 31% believe it is on the wrong track more or less.
These are very good numbers compared with other governments and
situations: governing parties frequently have a 50/50 result, or even a modest
“wrong track” result because voters are typically more inclined to remember
the things they don’t like than the things they do like, or to give greater
weight to the decisions they disliked.

Handling of the Recession

This question tested the public perception of the government’s handling of

the economic recession. Spotlight views this as an indicator of the public’s
view of the government’s competence in tough times, and consequently
whether it is generally acknowledged to be a steady and reliable performer.
Our experience shows that the state of the economy is one of the primary
underlying factors in how people actually cast their vote at election time.

18% of respondents said that the provincial government’s policies were

appropriate; and another 42% said that while they disagreed with some
actions, unusual times require unusual steps. This second response is
important, because the media (and commentators) often put emphasis on
people’s disagreements with public policy, but the important question is
whether people understand why it was done and are prepared to accept it
even if they don’t like it. These responses suggest that people understood.
Another 25% felt the policies did not buffer Albertans from the recession, and only 11% felt the
policies made the recession worse. That 11% likely coincides with people who would never
consider voting PC under any circumstance.

The Snapshot Question

This question is often called the headline question, because it is what gets the headlines in the
media. Spotlight asked the headline question, but also asked the undecided voters if they were
leaning in any direction; and also asked everyone for their second choices. This is a more in
depth means of testing peoples’ voting intentions, because campaigns do matter. Local
candidates matter. Issues matter. The vote is not going to be held today, so what is the range of
choices people are prepared to consider?

Voting Intention: Solid

PC: 25%
WRA: 15%
Lib: 10%
NDP: 6%
Green: 5%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 24%
Wouldn’t vote: 5%
DK/NR: 9%

Voting Intention: Solid plus Leaning

PC: 40%
WRA: 24%
Lib: 17%
NDP: 8%
Green: 8%
Other: 3%

Voting Intention: Second Choice

PC: 21%
Lib: 19%
WRA: 15%
NDP: 11%
Green: 7%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 11%
DK/NR: 13%
Together, this suggests that the PC Party has room for growth in an actual campaign, as a
greater number of currently undecided voters are leaning to them; and they also capture more
second choice votes in the event that a voter’s first choice loses appeal.

Key Issues

Finally, which issues matter to voters when they decide how they will vote? Detailed results are
on the charts attached, but in short, the issues stack up like this (number indicates the total of
Very Important and Important for voters in deciding how they will cast their vote):

Health Care: 82%

Environment: 77%
Controlling health costs: 75%
Funding Education: 74%
Reducing crime: 71%
Infrastructure: 69%
In touch with Grassroots: 68%
Improving fiscal situation: 67%
Keeping taxes low: 65%
Fast growth economy: 63%
More oil & gas: 45%

Analysis

On the basis of these six key questions, Spotlight believes that the position of the government
may be stronger than what is portrayed in the media, or assumed from the top-line Headline
Polls that report only the “if the vote were held today” question. The government shows some
strength in the “leaning” and “second choice” categories. They also show good results on how
they handled the recession, and quite frankly excellent results on the right track-wrong track
question. There is some foundational strength in their position – room to grow from an unusual
economic event that put virtually every government in a difficult position in 2008-09.

The issue results suggest that voters are looking for real results in health care, but with an eye
to balancing services with costs. The appearance of Environment and Education high on the list
suggests that Albertans are not only interested in low taxes, an improving fiscal (debt) situation,
and a growing economy (all of which rank lower), but care about quality of life issues. Being in
touch with grassroots opinion ranks in the middle range, suggesting that there is room for
improvement but it is less of an opinion-driver than the quality of life issues.

Questions?

Susan Elliott: (403) 539-4995 or susan.elliott@spotlightstrategies.com.

 Research Results
Spotlight Strategies
Direction of the Provincial Government
Thinking of all of the issues that the Province of Alberta is dealing with today, do you believe the provincial government
is on the right track, more or less OR on the wrong track, more or less?

Right track Wrong track

Total 64% 31%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Provincial Government Handling of the Economic Recession
Thinking of the recent worldwide economic recession, which of the following statements is closer to your view?

The provincial government's policies were appropriate and helped Alberta weather the downturn

While the provincial government did some things I disagree with, the unusual circumstances
required unusual steps
The provincial government's policies did not buffer Alberta from the recession

The provincial government's policies made the recession worse

Total 18% 42% 25% 11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Voting Intention: Solid
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?

Conservative Party Wildrose Alliance Party NDP

Liberal Party Green Party Other
Undecided Would not vote DK/NR

Total 25% 15% 6% 10% 5%1% 24% 5% 9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Voting Intention: Leaning
(IF UNDECIDED): In that case, which party would you favour or lean towards?

Conservative Party Wildrose Alliance Party NDP

Liberal Party Green Party Other
DK/NR

Total 30% 15% 4% 15% 7% 5% 24%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Voting Intention: Solid and Leaning
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?

Conservative Party Wildrose Alliance Party NDP

Liberal Party Green Party Other

Total 40% 24% 8% 17% 8% 3%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Voting Intention: Second Choice
Which party would be your second choice if you decided not to vote for your first choice?

Conservative Party Wildrose Alliance NDP

Liberal Party Green Party Other
Undecided DK/NR

Total 21% 15% 11% 19% 7% 2% 11% 13%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

 Issue Importance in Vote Intention
How important will each of the following issues be in terms of deciding which party you vote for in the next election?

Very important (7) Important (5,6) Neither (4) Unimportant (1-3)

Improving access to health care services 51% 31% 10% 8%

More funding for education 40% 34% 13% 13%

Protecting the environment 37% 40% 10% 12%

Reducing crime 37% 34% 10% 18%

Controlling health costs 35% 40% 8% 15%

Having a government that is in touch with the grass roots 33% 35% 10% 18%

Keeping taxes low 30% 35% 13% 21%

Improving Alberta's fiscal position 22% 45% 12% 19%

Planning a next generation fast growth economy for Alberta 21% 42% 15% 18%

Investing in infrastructure like roads, transit and facilities 21% 48% 17% 14%

Encouraging more oil and gas exploration, production and refining activity 14% 31% 16% 37%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Methodology
Sample size

Total 804

North (66)
Edmonton (257)
Region Central (81)
Calgary (304)
South (96)

Field dates May 19 to May 26, 2010

Average Survey Length 5 minutes