You are on page 1of 21

www.charlestonmarketreport.

com

March 2009 Edition

In This Issue:
Dr. Tim Allen joins the CMR
Save the Date!!
CMR Website Redesigned
Diversified Capital Advisors, LLC
Charleston Real Estate
What does a Trillion Dollars Look Like?
AIG, Bailouts, Pork, Stimulus, Congress, etc.
USA Credit Rating
Ponzi to Money Laundering Economy
Change is Possible
Why Economists Missed the Boondoggle
Stock Market

Howdy from pollen filled yet BEAUTIFUL Charleston, South Carolina! That means spring has arrived folks! ☺
Azaleas blooming and the Masters are upon us. The picture above is from Waterfront Park in downtown Charleston
if you are curious. Nice huh?

The soap opera “As The Economy/World Turns” continues on Wall Street and Washington DC (Which could be
considered the new Wall St) as the Shadow Banking System, Masters of the Universe and our Fearless Leaders try to
grapple with the economic boondoggle. Do not worry if you can not stand the suspense of each day’s events as the
cast of characters lie, cheat and steal because there are many more episodes left. This stuff puts the daytime soaps to
shame. No competition!
.

Charleston Market Report 1


© 2009
Nothing has made our world smaller and closer than this economic downturn. There has been no other time in
our history like today. This is a time when we have to really look for "blessings in disguise" at the position we have
all put ourselves in, economically, emotionally and spiritually. It is a time to realize that the only real and deep
help we get will come from taking stock of our own actions and habits of managing our individual lives. We will
come out of this much better people but we will do it one day at a time, one person at a time.

Now there are some public service messages I need to address before we get into the rest of the report.

Dr. Tim Allen Joins the CMR


I would like to formally welcome Dr. Tim Allen to the Charleston Market Report as an analyst. Dr. Allen and myself
have been working together for the past couple of months on an “Institutional” Real Estate Report we can provide to
individuals and businesses for a subscription fee that will go into greater detail on the trends of the local and national
real estate market and economy. I will make an announcement soon when the new subscription service will be ready.
We will also work together on specific consulting studies that anyone needs in the local Charleston real estate market.
We can work on projects related to residential or commercial real estate in the Tri-County area.

Here is a brief background on Dr. Allen. I would include his resume but it is ten pages long! ☺ Not only does Dr.
Tim have an impressive background he is also a great guy who is doing a wonderful job of educating students in the
real estate profession at the new Carter Real Estate Center at the College of Charleston.

Professor Allen holds the Charleston Trident Association of Realtors Endowed Professorship in the School of
Business and Economics and is the Director of the Carter Real Estate Center at the College of Charleston. He earned
his doctorate in Real Estate Finance and Economics from the Terry College of Business at the University of Georgia
in 1992. He spent the first 17 years of his academic career at Florida Atlantic University (Boca Raton/Ft. Lauderdale)
where he earned the rank of tenured full professor and served as the Director of the Real Estate Program in the Barry
Kaye College of Business.

Professor Allen has published more than 60 academic and professional writings in top-ranked research journals and
has made more than 30 professional presentations to groups around the world. He has received several research
awards from organizations such as the American Real Estate Society and the Academy of Business Disciplines. He
has received numerous distinguished teaching awards, including recognition from Lambda Alpha international as an
Charleston Market Report 2
© 2009
outstanding educator in the field of land economics. He currently sits on the editorial boards of several academic
journals and is an active member of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, the American Real
Estate Society, the Southern Finance Association, the National Association of Realtors, the Institute for Green
Professionals, and several other local and national organizations.

He is a Licensed Real Estate Broker in South Carolina and Florida and a State Certified General Real Estate
Appraiser in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. He maintains an active consulting practice involving advanced
econometric and statistical tools for litigation support, property valuation, and investment analysis with an emphasis
on special-use properties.

Save The Date!!!!


When: April 14th, 2009 from 6:00-8:00pm
Where: Beatty Center (Wachovia Auditorium)

“Twenty years of Charleston home values” by Dr. Tim Allen


“Charleston Real Estate Trends and Forecast” by Brad Rundbaken

If you plan on attending our presentation you can email me at brundbaken@comcast.net. Just let me know how
many will be attending. Our presentations are going to be informative and very enlightening to anyone interested in
the local Charleston real estate and economic trends. Reserve your seats early because I am anticipating a packed
house! The presentation will be sponsored by the Post and Courier so there will probably be more details in the paper
in the next couple of weeks. I look forward to seeing many of you there!

Charleston Market Report 3


© 2009
Charleston Real Estate
The rumor in the street and local media is traffic is up but sales are way down compared to last year. We like to call
these people who are looking “tire kickers” because they want to buy but they are just not sure they really want to buy
in many cases. The problem is fear and uncertainty with regards to real estate and the economy right now. The
psychology of the current buyer is very tough to gauge right now and many of these buyers are filled with confusion,
uncertainty and skepticism for many good reasons. Keep in mind that half of the wealth in this country has been
destroyed during this massive correction so buyers are going to be very careful with their next home purchase. I
expect many of the “tire kickers” will get spring fever and increase sales volume in the Charleston area. That is an
easy call because real estate is a seasonal sales process. The question is how many will get qualified, buy and what
will be the sales price?

I would be very careful with some of the listings in the MLS since they are just not priced correctly based on my
analysis and future economic scenarios. A good Realtor in Charleston should be able to guide you through this
process. Just make sure you use someone with some solid experience instead of your friend or relative who just got
into the biz.

If you go to the website and look at the CMR Indicators there are still problems and no indications of a bottom
forming yet. Existing home sales, new building permits, monthly inventory and foreclosure trends are getting worse.
The only CMR indicator that is working in our favor is interest rates thanks to the US government artificially keeping
them low by printing money and buying long term treasuries. So there is nothing wrong with buying a home right
now to take advantage of the low interest rate environment but I would be very certain on your price and future price
trends of the area you are purchasing in. There are some good deals out there and some bad ones as well.

I plan on discussing all of these issues in more detail on April 14th at the presentation me and Dr. Tim Allen are going
to give regarding the local Charleston real estate market.

I was optimistic before President Obama came into office and even a few weeks ago but now after watching him and
his administration in action I am bearish regarding current and future market conditions. I am simply a realist and
telling you like I see it. You do not have to listen to me because there are many others around Charleston or the city
you live in that are going to be much more positive and call me a doom and gloom guy. That could not be further
from the truth because I focus on managing risk. It is as simple as that. I can find decent residential and commercial
investments in Charleston but each one has to be evaluated in detail on a case by case basis. Right now I am nervous
about what is going on in the Congress, credit markets and currency markets that many of you may not understand or
care to understand. I see some “Black Swans” on the horizon that make justifying a leveraged real estate purchase a
delicate process.

Residential Review
It is really a tale of two markets in Charleston right now. All the action (if you want to call it that) is on the lower
priced homes. This town desperately needs some more affordable housing!! The inventory situation for detached
homes is much better than attached homes. My assumption is that it is becoming more difficult and expensive to get
financing in the condo/townhouse market because the underwriters are seeing more risk in this part of the market. In
February 80% of the sales from properties less than $400k were for single family and only 20% were
condos/townhomes.

The Over $400k market is DEAD and inventory is being pulled off the MLS since it is not selling. I am extremely
worried about the $400k+ market in both attached and detached homes. Obviously, the higher priced homes are
where you need to be most careful if you are looking to buy because this is where the large price corrections are going
to occur. The single family homes only accounted for 10% of the February sales and condos/townhomes were 2%.
There are many reasons behind the low sales volume for the upper end of the market. The main factors are Jumbo
loans are difficult to obtain and buyers are really scaling back and becoming frugal right now. I believe the buyer for

Charleston Market Report 4


© 2009
the more expensive home is worried about prices coming down more in this segment of the market so there is a fear
factor going on.

It is my opinion that the real estate community which includes banks, realtors, appraisers, builders and city
officials need to come together and start communicating about the problems on the horizon. I see some very
worrisome trends in the short sale/foreclosure area of the market that needs to be addressed ASAP. This
market needs to figure out some solutions regarding transparency in the distressed real estate market before it
gets worse. The last time I checked only about 5% of the current MLS listings are categorized as “distressed.”
The question is how many distressed properties are the banks holding on their books right now? I have no
idea and neither does anyone else.

Single Family Residential – Tri-County


Less than $400,000

Greater than $400,000

Charleston Market Report 5


© 2009
Condo/Touwnhomes – Tri-County
Less than $400,000

Greater than $400,000

Charleston Market Report 6


© 2009
Charleston Market Report 7
© 2009
What does a Trillion Dollars look like?
Source: http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html

Charleston Market Report 8


© 2009
AIG, Bailouts, Pork, Stimulus, Congress, etc.
I am going to keep my comments short and sweet regarding the government policies we are currently witnessing.
I got mine ready! How about you?

Want to know a good reason why we are really bailing out AIG?

The top 10 recipients of cash contributions from AIG in 2008


1. Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., $103,100
2. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., $101,332
3. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., $59,499
4. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., $35,965
5. Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., $24,750
6. Former Gov. Mitt Romney, (R) Pres $20,850
7. Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., $19,975
8. Rep. John Larson, D-Conn, $19,750
9. Sen. John Sununu, R-N.H., $18,500
10. Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (R) Pres $13,200
11. Rep. Paul Kanjorski, D-Pa., $12,000
12. Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., $11,000

Major CMR kudos go out to the governor of South Carolina, Mark Sanford who is trying to demonstrate fiscal
responsibility and discipline that our federal government desperately lacks. Sanford has it right on the money
to take the bailout funds and pay off debt instead of taking taxpayer’s money to spend that will require us to
eventually borrow more money to pay off interest in just a few years. Spending now to pay later is a dead end
road!
Below is the article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123759827524401409.html

This AIG media outrage is really just a sideshow to divert attention away from other major problems. Every time you
see the “Drive by media” as Rush Limbaugh calls them, act in concert on a story you have to think from a contrarian
and suspect point of view. It is not by accident.

Charleston Market Report 9


© 2009
Source: www.caglecartoons.com

Charleston Market Report 10


© 2009
We might as well bring in a “Bailout Mascot” that all of us Americans can visualize and be patriotic about as the The
Great Bezzle is implemented from the halls of our great capital in Washington DC. Ladies and gentlemen I introduce
to you the BAILOUT MASCOT!

USA Credit Rating


Once of my biggest fears regarding the exploding US debt and deficits, which is the fault of both the Republicrats
AND Demopublicans, is a real possibility of the U.S. losing our AAA credit rating. General Electric and Berkshire
Hathaway just lost their AAA rating so I am real confused how we (United States) still have ours. That leaves just
five companies with AAA ratings: Automatic Data Processing, Exxon Mobil, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, and
Pfizer.

Not to long ago, US Treasuries were considered safe but are now they are being viewed more and risky and the
default premium is soaring. Just like the investment banks before they collapsed. As default insurance on
Treasuries soars, the actual credit rating will decline, and bond prices will drop and interest rates will spike
during the recession making it worse.

FYI, when the Treasury CDS reaches 400 basis points it will be all over the main stream media news and if it reaches
1,000 we will have a major crisis on our hands. God forbid if that happens many of you will probably be joining me
with our pitchforks and torches and taking a trip to DC along with millions of other pissed off Americans. Let us all
pray it does not come to this but it is a possibility.

Charleston Market Report 11


© 2009
Now take a look at the chart below. A very nice looking chart since the January 2009 isn’t it? Unfortunately, this is a
Proshares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ETF. In other words the worse US Treasuries are doing the better
this chart is going to perform. I was expecting this chart to break out to the upside on 3/17/09 when evaluating some
trends in the bond market.

Charleston Market Report 12


© 2009
But wait one minute. One day after I pulled this chart above (3/17/09) the Fed pulled a fast one on me and many
other investors and yields fell because the Fed said it would buy $300 billion worth of government debt. Stocks rose -
with the Dow up 90 points. And the dollar fell heavily against the euro...down to less than $1.31/euro. The moves
may more than double the Fed's balance-sheet assets by September to $4.5 trillion from $1.9 trillion, said John
Ryding, founder of RDQ Economics LLC in New York.

Check out what happened to TBT after Bernanke announced he was going to press the “Print” button on the Printing
Press.

This type of “quantitative easing” as the media calls it was used by Germany in the 1920s, because her war
reparations burden was greater than she could sustain. Argentina did it in the 1980s, because it owed too much money
to too many foreigners. And Zimbabwe did it in 2003-2009, for reasons of its own. Not good examples of countries
that we should follow in their financial footsteps. All eventually experienced hyperinflation.

In response to the Fed's latest move, the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell more than any time since they started
keeping records in 1962. From 3.01% it had fallen to 2.48% when last we looked. Simply unbelievable stuff if you
work in the financial industry!

Charleston Market Report 13


© 2009
All I am doing is painting a picture of potential risk on the horizon with regards to the US credit rating, bond market
and interest rates. If the future projections above play out this would spell disaster for the real estate industry since
bond prices would drop and yields would increase. Let us all hope and pray this “Black Swan” does not materialize
or we could experience some major disruptions in the credit markets which is the last thing this economy needs right
now.

“… I think the US government bond market is a disaster waiting to happen for the simple reason that the
requirements of the government to cover its fiscal deficit will be very, very high,” said Marc Faber in a CNBC
interview. “There will be a time when the Federal Reserve will have to increase interest rates to fight inflation, and
it will be reluctant to do so because the cost of servicing government debt will rise substantially.”

The government’s actions also fall perfectly into place our Tactical Inflation Protection Portfolio (TIPP) which was
discussed in the following White Paper below that was written in November 2008:
http://charlestonmarketreport.com/modules.php?name=Documents&doc=Doc33.pdf

Charleston Market Report 14


© 2009
I really believe the AIG media distraction was to divert attention away from the Treasury and China issue. There is
economic warfare going on between the U.S. and China right now. You really do not hear about it in the MSM but it
is very real and has major implications. Keep in mind that China does NOT float their currency, Yuan, like other
countries do which gives them an unfair advantage in international trade. The recent global slowdown has had a
major impact on China as their exports have slowed down. It works to their benefit if they devalue the Yuan so their
export business picks up again so the Chinese can get back to work. It is difficult for the U.S. to bully the Chinese
around on economic issues when they own a large percentage of our Treasuries. The Chinese have recently expressed
discontent over the devaluing nature of the U.S. government's activities toward their investment.

This sequence of events has had a major impact on the U.S. Dollar, which has shown some relative strength weakness
recently. If the U.S. Dollar continues to weaken this would have an impact on oil which is showing signs of getting
stronger. The last thing the U.S. consumer needs right now is Oil to climb back up to $100+ per barrel prices.

Charleston Market Report 15


© 2009
Ponzi to Money Laundering Economy
The Ponzi Economy will never be abolished and replaced with a true Capitalistic structure until the Shadow Banking
System is dismantled. The way I see it is that from 2000 on was the formation of the Ponzi Economy and then in
September 2008 once TARP was passed began the era of Money Laundering Economy. Think about it. The large
banks responsible for creating this mess such as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BofA, Citigroup, etc. make tons of
money with the expansion of the real estate market due to creative financing and then once the bubble burst they get
to make (steal) money on the way down. Simply unbelievable!

Note to reader: Not all banks are bad! Many small and regional banks in Charleston or your city did not get
involved in these crazy lending practices so do not blame them for this mess. It was really caused by a few large
banks and an aggressive mortgage broker industry.

What is the Shadow Banking System (SBS)?

The SBS is really the centerpiece of the Ponzi Economy we are witnessing collapse before our very eyes. My
analogy to what is happening today is the equivalent of a gigantic money laundering scheme to the tune of trillions of
dollars. Only in America and our great free market system can the banksters and the SBS make trillions of money by
creating the Great Credit/Housing Bubble of the 21st Century and then make trillions more as it collapses. You may
be asking yourself that these banksters and the SBS are going bankrupt and losing money so how are they making
money? The unfortunate employees who helped build up the wealth of these various companies through hard work
and dedication is many of the victims whom have now received pink slips. There are a select few “Masters of the
Universe” who are in the Upper Management, Board of Directors, Government, etc. who are siphoning off the TARP
and Stimulus Bailouts after creating Financial Boondoggle. Guys like Andrew Mozillo from Countrywide, Alan
Greenputz, Henry “Punk Ass” Paulson, Hank “Putz” Greenberg (Former AIG Chairman), etc.

Here is how it works. The Banksters and SBS work seamlessly together to create credit and make trillions in fees
through Wall Street, the securitization of loans, the creation of exotic financial instruments such as Credit Default
Swaps, raiding pension funds, etc. Then once The Gig is up they take a private jet to Washington D.C and ask for a
bailout. They tell or should I say sell the idiots in DC on the story that they are too big to fail (BRILLIANT!) and if
they do not siphon off trillions of dollars of our money in bailouts the entire global financial system will collapse. It
will be FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON and we will go back to the barter system. I could care less! Let it blow up
and let’s start over. We will have moonshine and spam parties here in Charleston until we can reinvent the financial
system into a true capitalistic free market. We will live off the land and have a good old time which would be much
better IMO than bailing out these egotistical and machiavellian SUITS.

Charleston Market Report 16


© 2009
Sorry folks but our fearless leaders bought into “The Bezzle” hook line and sinker even with the worst salesman in the
world presenting the case, Hank “Punk Ass” Paulson. So after the majority of the US population screams to Congress
not to bailout these clowns out they do it anyway because that would have ruined the money laundering machine.
Now our future tax dollars go to Shitigroup, The Goldman Gangsters, AIG, Deushbag Bank, etc. Sometimes the
money is funneled to AIG (See chart below) who in turn siphons it off to Goldman, BofA, Citi, etc. There are
probably hundreds of different ways the money gets printed by the US Mint and funneled to these Financial Maniacs
but at the end of the day we are all getting RIPPED OFF. Ain’t life grand? Woooooo hooooooo!

What a cowinkidink that Hank Paulson’s Goldman Gangsters received $8.1 BILLION from the AIG money
laundering operation. Want to prosecute him don’t you? It is too bad because he had a clause in the first TARP that
basically gave him diplomatic immunity to steal from us, the taxpayers. The stupid idiots in Congress let him get
away with it. Get your Pitchforks and Torches ready! What company makes pitchforks? That may be a good stock
to buy soon!

Disclaimer: I do not own any positions with companies that make pitchforks or torches.

Charleston Market Report 17


© 2009
The Ponzi Portfolio

Change is Possible!
I have discussed many times in past CMR issues that many of our problems lie within our own minds. The Main
Stream Media (MSM) and even what I have to write about sometimes do not help. At the end of the day no matter
how bad this economy is there is opportunity for everyone to change their lives if they are unhappy about their present
situation. I firmly believe in all my heart that the current economic boondoggle is happening for a reason. If the “go
go” days had continued our society’s ego would have exploded to dangerous levels or many will say that this is
exactly what happened. Regardless, the current sequence of events have offered a chance for many to bring our time
on earth into perspective. While we are here we might as well do something positive with it and I thought I would
share this post from Leland Kaiser who is a very wise man.

“The easiest way to change anything you do not like in the present is to change it in the future. In the third dimension,
time is sequential -- your changed future must somehow be an extension of your present and the only way is for your
present to change accordingly to fit your new future. In this dimension, there must be a sequential flow from past to
present to future.

Most people struggle to change their present. Here the forces that oppose you are at their maximum. By contrast,
there are no opposing forces in your future. So -- you imagine you are in future time living the way you want to live.
See everything as real. This imagined future state is a reality in the fourth dimension. Because of the trickle-down
effect -- the forces you have set into motion in the fourth dimension enter the third dimension and begin rearranging
events to comply with the new vision.
Charleston Market Report 18
© 2009
Let's try a practical application of this idea. I seldom try to solve the current problems a hospital medical staff is
experiencing. Rather, I have medical staff members imagine the best way they could work with each other in the
future. They become inspired by their collective vision - create a blueprint for the future and then begin working in
the present to make the blueprint happen. I would have little luck wading through their current problems -- the
opposing forces are too great. Instead, I focus on helping them change their future. Their probable future before the
imagination exercise would have been a simple extension of their current bickering and dissatisfaction. Now, their
probable future is a newly envisioned working relationship. They collectively change their future which now feeds
back to change their present.

How about you? Are you still trying to solve unsolvable problems in the present or are you imagining a more
desirable future, which is not a simple extension of your present problems”

Imagining a better future is the first step in creating it. Your experienced reality is simply where you attention is
focused. Rather than focus on your current problems, focus on a future without those problems and then act to
make that future happen.

You move ahead on the spiritual path very rapidly when you change from a problem solving orientation to a potential
invoking approach. Why get mired down in the present when you can have your desired future?

Leland Kaiser
http://gnosticnotes.blogspot.com/

Why Economists Missed the Boondoggle


ALAN BLINDER, Princeton University: I think the fair answer is nobody thought that this might happen. Things
can go wrong. But the number of things that have gone wrong and the ferocity with which they have gone wrong, I
think, was beyond the imagination of almost everyone.
CMR: Wrong answer. You just do not know how to process the information and measure risk. Your models were
wrong because you are too busy sitting in your ivory tower instead of being on the front lines. It is kind of like trying
to fight a war from Washington DC.

CAROLINE HOXBY, Stanford University: It was easy to say this individual housing, mortgage investment is risky,
but it was very difficult for any -- even a very good economist to say, "I understand how all of these different
investments, when they all start collapsing together, even just a little bit, are going to aggregate up and roll onto one
other."
CMR: This is a ridiculous statement. If you did not see this coming you were paid off or simply do not understand
how the financial markets work.

FRANK LEVY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology: I think part of the reason that many people didn't know is
that the people who were issuing all these derivatives had big incentives to keep what they were doing secret.
CMR: Tell us something we don’t know Levy.

WILLIAM DARITY, Duke University: There is not much of a tendency to hire economists who think outside of the
box. And so, as a consequence, I think there was sort of an ideological blinder that was on -- on peoples' eyes.
CMR: Trust me even though I am not a trained economist I know this feeling. Often times you get hired to submit
data in the manner your client wants it. Those of us who are honest and no BS often get blackballed from performing
the necessary risk management on deals that could potentially implode.

KEN ARROW, Stanford University: Exactly. Well, I feel a little responsible, in a way. I should have. We just
assumed, if we knew it, so did the people, the smart people -- that would have no reason to distrust their intelligence -
- in the investment banks, so we took it for granted these people protect themselves. We were wrong, obviously.
Charleston Market Report 19
© 2009
CMR: I am glad one economist has the gahoonies to admit he was wrong.

ANDREW LO, Massachusetts Institute of Technology: It turns out that neuroscientists have shown that financial
gain triggers the exact same reward circuitry in the brain that cocaine does.
CMR: That’s right Mr. Low blame it on the cocaine. LOL!

Source:
Economists Explain Why Hints of the Economic Crisis Eluded Them
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/jan-june09/economists_01-09.html

Stock Market

Here’s a short list of only the highest quality, blue chip, penny stocks:
• Fannie Mae (70 cents)
• Freddie (73 cents)
• Unisys (49 cents)
Almost penny stocks:
• AIG ($1.26 cents)
• Citigroup ($2.62 cents)
• E*Trade ($1.18 cents)
• Ford ($2.75)
• GM ($3.18)
• Las Vegas Sands ($2.41)
• MGM ($3.05)
• CIT ($2.45)
• Kodak ($3.76)
• Bank of America ($6.19)
• New York Times ($4.42)
• News Corp ($6.89)
• Xerox ($4.34)
• International Paper ($7.08)
• Alcoa ($6.54)
• GE ($9.54)
• Dow Chemical ($7.68)
• Wells Fargo ($13.99)
• Dell ($9.88)
Prices taken from the 3/19/09 closing prices.
Amazing what a difference a year makes!

Is the bull back?

Inquiring financial minds may want to know. As many of you know I use technical analysis, which measures the
supply and demand of the stock market, to determine what the heck is going on in the stock market. What we are
watching is a nice rally at this point but strong trends are not established in such a short period of time so we are still
cautious. The mood is obviously a little brighter than it was two weeks ago. And it is very easy now to fall into the
trap that “The market is up 10%, so things must be all right!" Remember that we have seen this price action in the
major stock market indices over the last few months. That is, they get extremely “oversold”, show a slight upward
bias for a few weeks, and then move right back down in price.Remember the news that sparked this two week old
stock market rally has come from the heads of the top U.S. banking companies and federal government officials.But
we have to have a little more patience to wait out the difference between a short-term news-based stock market rally
and a much more meaningful change of direction of the long-term direction of the stock market.
Charleston Market Report 20
© 2009
Right now, we have a short-term priced-based move up. What we need instead, is a confirmed change in the long-
term trend of the stock market. This confirmation has not occurred yet so the best course of action is to remain
patient and not listen to spinmeisters on TV.

This current rally has some more upside but IMO it will eventually end and the stock market will eventually retreat to
its normal bear roots. There are just too many “Black Swans” floating around and when you add the poor leadership
within Congress and the current Administration I am not optimistic right now. I truly hope I am wrong.

That is it for this month. Be careful out there and feel free to email me if anyone needs help with anything. Have a
great month and remember that even though there are some confusing and negative economic issues we are
dealing with right now I am confident we will all get through this together.

I hope to see everyone on April 14th at the College of Charleston.

Ciao,
Brad

Charleston Market Report 21


© 2009

You might also like