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Platinum 17 32 SO 60 31 48 36 '38 39 . S3 SO 40 SO 46 43
Cop 42 57 61 90 63 67 86 73 69 60 79 67 58 68 67
Com 29 35 29 27 37 28 18 25 30 33 26 32 35 29 28
eat 36 39 30 18 36 28 47 34 36 17 27 35 3S 33 31
Oats 23 27 22 36 33 2S 19 26 27 18 24 27 38 25 27
Soybeans 21 27 21 9 27 19 6 12 19 12 12 22 59 29 23


011 21 27 22 18 28 23 6 15 21 17 14 21 47 23 22
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Co 55 30 28 22 30 2S 17 31 26 50 30 31 62 43 41
Cocoa 36 34 34 30 26 34 31 32 33 27
29 27 21 26 29

Sugar 54 55 50 10 4S 4S 13 26 38 18 14 33 27 19 24
IUin 82 5,S S3 90 72 S9 46 73 60 38 58 60 SO 4S 614


Cotton 82 72 77 70 73 76 31 61 63 73 58 6S 67 57 65
lJveCattle 69 67 64 45 6S 61 47 S4 S9 71 54 62 88 69 64
UveH IS 28 33 36 30 31 33 28 31 41 37 33 50 41 3S
Pork Bellies 8 30 34 30 27 30 14 17 27 44 29 28 57 38 31
CD Index 18 32 43 56 37 41 31 3S 37 36 41 36 46 38 37 Fi

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Introduction to Futures Trading (Video Seminar Series #1) 1

Figure 1-1: What is a Commodity Futures Contract? 2

Figure 1- 2: Three Types of "Players in Futures Markets 3

Figure 1-3: Diagram of Trading Floor at the Chicago

. Mercantile Exchange 4

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g re -. e 1 very Months In Corn · · . · .5

Figure 1-5: Delivery Months in Pork Bellies 6

Figure 1-6: Deli very Months in Crude Oil 7

Figure 1-7: Market Leverage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8

Figure 3-8: Orange Juice Weekly Seasonal Futures Chart 25 .

Figure 3-9: TBonds Weekly Seasonal Futures Chart 26

Figure 3-10: Feeder Cattle Weekly Seasonal Futures Chart 27

Figure 3-11: Wheat Daily Seasonal Futures Chart · · · · · .28

Figure 3-12: What Traders Want to Know 29

Figure 3-13: Orange Juice Daily Seasonal Futures Chart · · .30

Figure 3-14: Swiss Franc Daily Seasonal Futures Chart · · · · .31

Figure 3-15: Coffee Daily Seasonal Futures Chart · · · · · .32

Figure 3-16: S&P Daily Seasonal Futures Chart 33

Introduction To Seasonals (Video Seminar Series #3) 17

Figure 3-1: Sample Seasonal Array 18

Figure 3- 2: Corn Monthly Seasonal · .19

Figure 3-3: Corn Monthly Seasonal 1960-1992 Overlay 20

Figure 3-4: Seasonal Cash Chart for Oats 21

Figure 3-5: Split Decade Seasonal for Oats 22

Figure 3-6: Crude Oil Array 23

Figure 3-7: January Lumber Weekly Seasonal Futures Chart · .. 24

Seasonals Part II (Video Seminar Series #4) · · · · · .35

Figure 4-1: Lumber Key Date Seasonal · · · · · · · · · · .36

Figure 4-2: Cash Petroleum Seasonal 37

Figure 4-3: Dow Jones Key Date Seasonal 38

Figure 4-4: Dow Jones Key Date Seasonal April 6th-April 16th · · · · · · .39

Figure 4-5: Key Date Seasonal in Wheat · · · · · .40

Figure 4-6: Key Date Seasonal in TBond Futures 41

Figure 4-7: Art Merrill's Chart of Pre-Holiday Behavior in the

Stock Market 42

Figure 4-8: Key Date Seasonal Live Hogs · · · · · · · · .43

Figure 4-9: March/September Oats Spread ' .. 44

Figure 4-10: July/November Soybean Spread 45

Figure 4-11: April Live Cattlel April Live Hog Spread · · · · · · · .46

Figure 4-12: June/April Live Hog Spread 47

Figure 4-13: December WheatlDecember Oats Spread . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48

Figure 4-14: March CornlMarch Oats Spread 49

Cycles in Futures Trading (Video Seminar Series #2) 9

Figure 2-1: Interest Rates 1900-1995 10

Figure 2-2: Short Term Interest Rates 1800s to 1995 11

Figure 2-3: Soybeans Cycles _ · · 12

Figure 2-4: British Pound Cycles 13

Figure 2- 5: Pork Bellie Cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14

Figure 2-6: Corn Cycle 15

Figure 2- 7: Shell Egg Prices 1968-1977 16

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Jake Bernstein's Introduction to Seasonals

Cash corn



prices

had a very reliable seasonable history. This is the shorter term chart for tbem,

HIOH I SER!ONRL UP HONTHSa JAN APR MRY DEC HIGH I SEASONRL DOWN MONTHS: JUN RUG SEP OCT I DEAL SEASONAL HIGH: JUL

I DEAL SEASONAL LOW I NOV

<DIllS

JRN FEB MAR APR HRY JUN . JUL. AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
1.4 .8 1.2 1.2 2.6 1.B .1 -2.5 -2.9 -2.5 -.7 3.4
76.7 62.1 SB.S 78.1 77.4 "S5.B -54.8 -68.7 -73.3 -721.0 -5'4. B 71.9
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Figure 3·3: Corn Monthly Sessonal1960 - 1992 Overlay

20

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.....

Jake Bemstelrts Introduction to Seasonals

MONTHLY SERSONAL CASH TENDENCY: OATS

Yeors 1915 - 1994

HIGH I SEASONAl UP MONTHS: JAN SEP OCT NOV DEC HIGH I SERSONRl DOWN MONTHS: FEB JUN JUL AUG (DEAL SERSONAL HIGH: JRN

IDERL SERSONAL LOW: RUG

This chart shows

the seasonable pattern in oats over

a period

of many years.



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. ·····21

-~----'----------.... ._. -----_.-

_. -----.

Jake Bemsteitvs Introduction to Seasonals

This chart shows

the

ten year analysis of oats

1925 - 1934



prices.

lltS ~ 1151

1175 ~ 1_

1_ .. 1112

1915 - 1112

OATS

SPLIT DECADE SERSONAlS

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Figure 3-&: SpHt Decade Seasonal for Oats

22

. _ -

MONTHLY SEASONAL CASH ARRr:lY ANAL Y5..1 5 I FUELO l~L

~ .... - .. ~'''~ ...... -

................................ -----~..........._.....__+-----_...._......----....._...._-----

Years 1962 - 1994

til MAR erR. HRY JUN A. 8W 2Er. OLT ~ U£k

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Jake Bernstein's Introduction to Seasonals

. tJ\eaOS

-51.6 -.53. 1 -56.2 59.4 80.13
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MONTHLY SEASONAL· CASH TENDENCY: FUELOIL

~~~ .. _ .. _- _._ .-----~-

.. "

Yeore 1962 - 1994

By using the array analysis, W"e can find the best opportunities historically.

HIOA S SERSONAL UP MONTHS,_ RUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

HIGH S SERSONAL DOWN MONTHS: APR

IDEAL SEASONAL HIGH: DEC

I DEAL SEASONAL LOV r JUN

Figure 3·6: Crude Oil AlTay

. .... .

'., ·'23

Lumber has been avery seasonal market.

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..

MBH COMMODITY ADVISORS. INC.

WEEKLY SEASONAL COHPOS"I TE FUTURES CHART

""

JAN LUMBER

·1972 THRU 1992

@ aJlYR "In ,112 MIlt

ALL YEARS BULLISH YEARS BEARISH YEARS

---------.----~-.

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Figure 3·7: January Lumber Weekly Seasonal Futures Chart

24

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PI L J'Ii'k.

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...... - " ..

Jake Bernstein's Introduction to Seasonals

- ...

r MEH COHHOlJ i TY ROV J SORS. INC.

Orange Juice futures tend to decline once the fear of frost is over.

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25

Jake Bemsteirts Introduction to Seasonals

DllY

HBH

C(»POSI TE FUTIJIIES DAlT DEC TREASURY BONDS 1978 TtttU 1993

CD 1_1.-

• WEEklY

fl.L YEM5

.8l.l.L r :5ti YEM'S _ .... - .. - - • .... - .. • - - ..

rSH YEARS



Note the tendancy for treasury bond futures to rally late in the year.



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Figllre 3 .. 9: TBonds Weekly Seasonal Futures Chart

Jake Bernsteirts Introduction to Seasonals

MBH COMMon I T Y ROV I SORS • r NC • VEEKL y SEASONAL COtPOSI TE FUTLES CI ART MAR FEEDER CATTLE

1978 TtflU 1993

ILL YEARS Il,tLL I SH YEARS ISH YEARS

.......

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., pd. :;l1li 775f

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Figure 3-10:. Feeder Cattle Weekly Seasonal Futures Chart

," -

27

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Jake Bemsteirrs Introduction to Seasonals

...

..

auf5H TEMS

- --.... "' .. - .. • -. ... •• • ..... • - • + •

t. HIGH I LP ~. HIGH I DOVN

8EPJt ISH YEARS

- .......

17 II 75 71 77 78 81 82

1411 •• '1

fLL YEMS

..--_ ...•••... _ ..

1117 THRU 1884

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One of the most seasonal markets is wheat.

1

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Figure 3-11: Wheat Daily Seasonal Futures Chart

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This Important list of items should be studied and followed by all traders.

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Jake Bernstein's Introduction to Seasonals

-_. -- ---,

J1BH COMMOD J TY ADV 150RS • J NC ~ DR J L Y SEASONAl COMPOS) TE FUTURES CHART

-

MRR ORANGE JUICE

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BULLISH YEARS

~--~.~-.--~-------

74 76 78 80 85 87 88 89

90

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BEARISH YEARS 86 91

ALL YEARS

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DRTE :

Jake Bernstein's Introd~ction to Seasonals

lULL J SH YEARS

-.-._------_ .. _--_

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S. NC. DRILY SEASONAL CO~05ITE FUTURE5 CHRPtT DEC SWISS FRANC

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HM I 5H YEM5

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em il 82 83 84

RLL YEM5

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DRTE

. ~ ~ ~ .~ • - • ~ • • • - • - - - - ~ - -........ ~ • • ~ • ~ ~ • • ~ • - -. + • - -. - - • • • - - - ~~~~~~~~~--~~--~~~~~~~~~

.- _ -. .-. .. - :

The Swiss Franc shows many reliable seasonal patterns.

Figure 3·14: Swiss Franc Daily Seasonal Futures Chart

. . . .

... :: ... 3· ··t·····

. , .

. . . . . '. . . . :"

Jake Bernsteirts Introduction to Seasonals

1· HIDH I UP .J,. HIOH I DOVN

MBH C

NC. DRILY I(A50NAl. CQHflOSIT£ FUTURES tHf!l~T .MAR COFFEE

.Plft ISH YEM'

--

II I] 18 III V2

lULL 15H YEM!

AlL YEARS

..

1973 IHRU 1992

73 7 C 77 7g 81 84 II II 87

aPTl11IfI' 1" ..

~--~------------------.-----~.~-~~------~----------~~-, ---- __ ~---- ~~~----------------------'_-T----------------~------~~~~--~--------------~~----------------------L-------------------------~--~~~

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DATE

• a

. ~ - ~ ~~ ..

.. ..... - •••• ++.-.~ ...

Coffee is

one of the most seasonal markets.

Figure 3-15: Coffee Daily Seasonal Futures Chart

32

DRTE

Jake Bernstein's Introduction to Seasonals

:OMl'OS I TE FUTURES CHART S&P INDEX

t· HIGH I UP ~. HIGH I DOWN

lULL 15M T£M5

~ . . . - . ~ - ~ . - . . - - . .

D' 8! II 17 II 11 12 93

BEAR 151-1 YEARS 84

~L YEARS

III ::zI ... F ....

Id'

Iitl

___ ........ .... IIW

1983 THRU t 993

1M tIN-

,J.ty

1~3

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Even the stock market has seasonal patterns.

/

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Figure 3-18: SAP Daily Seasonal Futures Chart

..

33

....

..

..

aining Manual

L

311

..

_. • : .-. I • • : •••••

• ••• .. I _. • ...

------ENTRy------

--DATE-- -PRICE-

-------EXIT-------

PROFIT LOSSC-)

% PROFIT ACCUM LOSS(-) TOTAL

CONTRACT

--DATE--

-PRICE-

•••• 1111 ••

a==:&I1 _

_ ...... -14- .. ._. =

-~---- .......

== .... =_ ... _- .. --~~

...-_-. ....... --- ..... -~~-----.

-._--_ ....... .. ~-.---~

+

77.0

. 1 03 . e

138.3 134.7 1 09 . 1 146.9

178.9

202.6 214.3 214 . 1

1BO.7

1 L· a: 1 JtJ.

7101lB 7201LB 7301LB

7401LB 7S01LB 7601LB 7701LB 1801LB 7901LB 800'1 LB 8101lB

S201LS 8301LB

8401LB 8501LB

8601LB 8701LB 8801LB 8901LB 9001LB

9101LB

9201LB 9301LB 94011_B

11 /23/7·0 11122/71 11/21/72

11/21 /73 11/21/74 11/2·,/75

1"/22/76

11/21/77 11 /21/78 t 1/21 /79

1 1/·2 1/80 I 1 123/81 11 /22/82 11,'21/83 1 1 /: 1/84

11 /Z 1/85 11 /·21 /86 11/23/87 11121/88

. 75.8 102.0 135.8

134.3 108.7 154.3 178.0 196.7 197.3

224.6 189 . 1 152.8 166.3

-1 78 . 2

149.6

121 1/70 121 1171 12/ 1/72

121 3/73 1 Z/ Z/~74

11/25/75

1 .2 1 . S

1 .58 1 .76

1 .84-

.30 .37 -4.80 c· 1 .:...1

.4 .4 -7.4

.9 5.9 17.0 -10.5

-8.4

3.00 8.62 -4 ./)""

-4.44

1 . 5 1 .. 60

2'.69 4.29 1 .83

10.04 5.62 -2.56

1" I c.1

12/~ 1/'77 1 2 / 1 ,"·78 11 /28,/79

11/26l'80

12/" 12,1

1 2,'

1 " ./

1-.1

1 i~~ 1 1/82 1 • '83

3 ..... 84

' .. ' .., L . ~.

167.3 183.0

156.0

144.8 185.3 184.2 175.2 1 ~J7 . 3

1 . 0 'I- . E: 6.4 ? 6

1;..

14,_,

1,/ 2/85 1Z/ 1186 121 1/87

.: 12/ 1/S:3

1 2~/ 1 /~J9 12. / 3/'JO

.70 1 . II 0

3.51 9.63

168.4 1 '74 • 4

17'1.8 1:35.6 157.0

16.9

-4.6

.

1 1 /1 Z l/fJ9

1 1 /2 1/'"JO t 1.,.';~ I /9 1

11 123/92 1 1 i' 2 2 /':13

1 ... ., II I

1 sa . 1

1 . 1

1 ~"l ,

... I I.. ~

2 tJ"'" . 0 253.9

II a_, -, f) ..., c..' "

12/ 1 /'12- l~.·.' 1)")3

'3 '

.. . o

I POSITIVE: 20

AVERAG'E PROF 1 T :

I NEGA.T I VE · 4 * UNCH:

.

6 .31· ( 3 . Oll-X) AVE'RASE LOSS:

X TRADES PROFITABLE: 83.33

o -I TOTAL: 24

~. 7 . 73 (- 4. 1 ZX)

KEY PRICE: CLOSE

..

38

1 .2 3.0

5.5 5.9 6.3 - 1 . 1

5.7

1 2 I~'

. . ...

3.8 6 I 1 . 7 . 1

11 .9 18.3

20.9

37.8 47.6 43.0

44 .: ,

45.3 49 . 1 57.7

. . •.• "r: 1 • ... • ••••

• • "":.... • ... ·1 • : •• •

• ••• •• : ": •••• 1 r " ..... :.... - ... 'I r, .. . . -.... ... .. ..

Even the



price of

petroleum has been predictable with

seasonal patterns.

PtONIHLY

_. 1

YeG"'. 1

. Y :

. , .

HIGH S SE THS, JAN SEP OCT NOV I£C

. .

HIGH I SE NAL ,THS I MAR APR I1AY

I DEAl. SEASO H·I, GH , DEC

r DEAL SEASONAL LO I

... _,





-
FEB APR .t1AY SEP OCT NOV DEC
.

2.7 -.6 "1.1 -.8 -.7 .. 4- .7 2.3 1.6 1.8 1.5 2.5
• •

,
87.4 54.3 ·~a. .. 76.2 -85.8 -61.5 Sg. t.1 .7 .7 78.8 .,~ ~
,~
I ~
;
..
. .
...

Fi 4-2: Cash Petroleu Seasonal
-
.... . .

t

-

. .. .. .

" ..., .

. -

• 01,... r

_....._.....,..~----- -_._---------------------------

• • •• - ._ •• _. 'I r - •• I' 'I I. I.. .. _ ••• __ _ •• • _ _ _ _ _ _.... ',_ _ '_ • _.. • • _ • _. _ __ • r _. r _... • _ • I -.. .' • __ • ••• _ _ -.'1 '''I' __ I. _ •• I •• __ __ _.... _. ._. • _ __ •

ENTRY: 1 2/15

SL: S.OX

E)( IT: 12/30

BUY CLOSE

~--~--ENTRY-~-~~~ CONTRACT --DATE-- -PRICE-

••••••••

PROFIT LOSS(-)

"PROFIT ACCUM LOSS(-) TOTAL

.... OATE .. -

-PRICE-

•••••••• • ••••••

= •• =D===E=== •• =.=z=m.==a.~.=aaa====.=z=.=.==:=Z===ZK======= •• _== •••• =.==.=a •• ==

. .

• POS I T I VE : 34

AVERAGE PROFIT4

5012DJ 5112DJ S212DJ

5312DJ

S412DJ 5S12DJ ~612DJ 5712DJ

5812DJ ~912DJ 60120J 6112DJ

6212DJ

6312DJ

64120J 6S12DJ 6612DJ 6712DJ 6812DJ b912DJ

70120J 7112DJ 72120J 7312DJ 7412DJ 7512DJ 761ZDJ 7712DJ 7812DJ 791ZDJ 8012DJ

8112DJ 82120J 83120J

8412DJ

8512DJ 861Z0J 8712DJ 881Z0J 8912DJ 9012DJ 9 11 2 OJ 9Z120J

931 ZOJ

12/1S/50 12/17/51 12/15/52

12/15/53

12/:'5/54 12/15155 12/17/56 12/16/57

12/15/58 12/15/59 12/15/60 12/15/61 12/17/62 12/16/63 12/15/64 12/1~/6S 12/1~/66 12/1:5/67 12/16/68 '2/15/69 12/1~/70 12/15/71 12/15/72 12/17/73 12/1&/74 12/15/75

12/15/76 12/15/77 12/15/78 12/17/79 12/15/80 12/15/81 12/1S/SZ

12/15/83

12/17/84 12/16/85 12/1~/86

12/15/87

12/15/88 12/15/89 12/17/90 12/16/91 12/15/92 12/15/93



ere IS

another

seasonal tendancy in the stock market.

Fi

• •••••••

224.72 265479 28S.99 279.52 388.92 480.72 493.75 433.40 :563.98 673.78 610.76 729.40

645.49 761 .64

837.45 958.74 809 . 18 880.61 976.32 784.05 819.60 863.90

1027.20 811.10 586.80 836.60 983.90 817.90 805.30

844.60 917-00 975.90 992.60

1236.80 1 176 .80 1553.10 1922.80 1941 . SO

2133.00 2739.60 2593.3

12/29/50 12/31/51 12/30/52 12/30/S3

12/30/54 12/30/5:5

. 12/31/56

12/30/57 12/30/58 12/30/59 12/30/60 12/29/61 12/31/62

12/30/63 12/30/64 12/30/65 12/30/66

12/29/67 12/30/68 12/30/69 12/30/70

12/30/71 12/29/72 12/31/73 12/30/74 12/30/75 12/30/76 12/30/77 12/29/18

12/31/79 12/30/80 12/30/81 12/30/82 12/30/83 12/31/84 12/30/8~ 12/30/86

12/30/87 , 2/30/88 12/29/89 12/31/90

12/30/91 12/30/92 12/30/93

235.42 269.23 292.00 280.43

40 1 .97 488a40 499.47 431 .78 581 .85 676.97 615.89 731 . 14 652 . 10 759.90 868.69 963.69 785.69 90S.11

945.11 794.68 84 t .30 889 . 1 0

1020tOO 850.90 603.30 852.40 999 . 1 0 83 1 .20 805.00

838.70 962.00 873. 1 0

1047.40 1258.60 12 11 .60 1550~SO 1908460 1950 .. 1 0

2168.60 27~3.Z0 2633.7

10.70 3.44 6.01 .91

13.05 7.68 ~~72 -1 .62

17.87 3.19 5.13 1 .74 6.61 ~ 1 .74

11 .24 4e9~ -23.49

24.50 -31.21

10.63 21 .70 25.30 "7~20 J9~90

16.50 15.80 15.30 13.30

... ~JO

"5.90 45.00

"'2.80 54.80 21 .80 34~80 -2.60

-14.20

8.00 35.60 13 . 60' 40.4

244~8 36~7 S9tO

4.16 1 .29 2.10 .33

3~36 1660 1.16 -.37 3.17 .47

.84 .24

1 .02 --.23 , .31

.~2 "2.90 2.78 -3.20

1 .36 2.6~ 2.93 ... 70

4.91

. 2.81

1 a 89 1 . S6 1 .63

-.04

-.70

4.91 --432 5.52

1 .76 2.96 ~ * 17 .... 74

.44 1 .67 .50 1 . ~6 8~39 1 A 12 1 .59

10.70 14. 14 20 ~ 15 21 .06

34. 11 41 .79 47.S1 45.89 63.76 66.95 72.08 73.82

90.43 78.69 89.93 94.88 71 .39

95.89 64.68 75.31 97.01

122.31 115.11 154.91 171.41 187.21

202.51 215.81 215~51 209.61 254.61 251.81 306.61 329~41 363.21

-

360.61

346.41 355.01 390.61 404.21

444.6 689.4 726 ~ 1 785. 1

.

2919 . 1

3284.4 3716.9

. .

3163.9

332 1 . 1 3775.9

• NEGATIVE: 10 • UNCH:

. .

25.77 ( Z.Z1X) AVERAGE LOSS:

X TRADES PROFITABLE: 77.27

o

• TOTAL:

44

--9.11 ( ~~94X)

KEY PRICE: CLOSE

4-3: DOW JOneS Key Date seasonal

,.

38

shows the strong tendancy for the

.S. Stock arket to go higher

om April 6th

th April 16th.

f

,

Fi

ENTRV: 41 6

,

EXIT: 4/16

SL: 5.0X

BUY CLOSE

-~~~~~ENTRY-~~~~~ CONTRACT ~-OATE~~ -PRICE~

PROFIT LOSS(~)

X PROFIT ACCUM LOSS(--) TOTAL

.....

--OATE~~

~PRICE~

,.

=:~==:== az==c== : ••• ==.=

4.512DJ 4612DJ 47120J 4812DJ 4912DJ 5012DJ 5112DJ 521Z0J SJ12DJ S412DJ S.512DJ 5612DJ 5712DJ S812DJ

59120J 601ZDJ 6112DJ 6212DJ

63120J 6412DJ

6512DJ 6612DJ

671Z0J 6812DJ 691ZDJ 701ZDJ

7112DJ 7212DJ 73120J

,7412DJ

7512DJ 7612DJ 7712DJ 7812DJ 79t2DJ

8012DJ 81120J eZ12DJ 8312DJ 84120J

8S12DJ

8612DJ

8712DJ 8812DJ 8912DJ

90 '2D~ 91 12DJ

9212DJ 9312DJ

41 6/45 41 9/46 41 7/47 4/ 6/48 4/ 6/49 41 6/50 4/ 6/51 41 7/52 4/· 6·/53 4/ 6154 41 6/55 'II 6/56 41 8/57 41 7/58 4/'6/59 4/ 6/60 41 6/61 41 6/62

41 9/63 41 6/64 41 6/65 41 6/66

41 6/67 41 8/68 41 7/69 4/ 6/70

41 6/71 41 6/72 41 6/73 41 9/74 41 7/7S 41 6/71,

41 6/77 41 6/78 41 6/79 41 7/80 41 6/81

4' 6/82 41 6/83

41 6/84 41 8/85

4/ 7/86 41 6/87 41 6/88 41 6/99 4/ 6/90 41 8/91 41 6/92 4/ 6/93

1~5.8S 205.43

·1 7S t 39 178~77 176&71

2 1 2 ~ , 0

250.83 263.38

2 74 ~ 1 0 304.26 416.42 521 ~ OS 479.04 440.09

611.16 628.31 . 679.34 699~6J

706.03 824~76 E:91 ~ 90 945 ~ 26

861 125

884442 917~78 791 620 912.70 959.40 931 . 1 0 840~OO

742~90

100' t 70 914.70

764.00 875.70 769.30 994 .20 8J9~30

1 11 3 . 50 11 32 ~ 20 1253pQO

17JS.~O

2405 150 206 1 .70 2292.00

271 7 j 1 2918.6 3275.5 3377.9

4/16/45 4/16/46 4/16/47 4/16/48 4/18/49 4/17/50 4/16/51 4/16/52 4/16/53 4/19/54 4/18/55 4/16/56 4/16/57 4/16/58 4/16/59 4/18/60 4/17/61 4/16/62

4/1~/63 4/16/64 4/19/6S 4/18/66

4/17/67 4/16/68 4/16/69 4/16/70 4/16/71 4/17/72 4/16/73 4/16/74 4/16/75 4/19/76 4/18/77 4/17/78 4/16/79 4/16/80 4/16/81 4/16/82 4/18/83 4/16/94 4/16/95

4/16/86 4/14/87 4/18/88 4/17/89 4/16/90 4/16/91 4/16/92 4/16/93

162.43

207.97 169.22 180t61 1 77 . 1 6

214.41

6.58 2.54 .. 7 ~ 17

1 .84 .45 2.31 4.02 -1 .90

2.64 7.52 12~OO

-·11 .90

5.28 4.26 6~42 2~46

17 . 38 ~ 1 S . ,57

'.89 .89

20.86

"3~2S 5 34 22J36 5171 .. 15.30

27.50

7a20

2'~60 21 ~ 20

72~80

"13.60 28. 10 46.10 -1~+30 3.00 11 ~ 40 4. 10 69.70 29.20 16~50

112~50 ~1~2aSO ~53~60

45.80 46.0 68.3 9' .0

100.8

4422 1 . 2" ~4.09

1 .03 ~25 1 .09 1 ,60

-~12 .96 2.47 2.98 -2.28

1 . 1 0 ~97 1 .05 ~39 2~56 --2.23

~69 . 1 1 2.34

~.35

~62

2~53 .62 .. 1 .93

360 1

~7S 2.75 2.~2 9.80

-1 .36 3107 6.03 ~ 1 ~ 7S

~39 1 ~ 15 ~49 6.26 2 49 1 I 32

6,48 --6.34

-2~6Q

2.00 1 .69

2.34 2.78 2.98

6158 ·9 . 12

1 · 95 3.79 4 p 24 6.SS

10657 8~67 11 .31 18.83 30.93

18.93 24.21 28.47 34.89 37.35 54a73 39.16

44.05 44&94 65.80

bZ.S2 67.86 90~2Z 95.93

80.63

108 6 1 J 115~J3 140.93 162 . 1 J

234.93 221 .3j

249.43 295.53

290.23-

283.23 294~63 298.73 368.43 396.63 413.13 525.63 373. '3 319.53

365.33

411 . J 479~6 570.6 67144

,.

,

254.85

.-

261 .48 276~74 J 11· . 78 428.42 509 I 1 ~ 484.32 444.35 617.58 630.77 696.72 684.06

710~92 825.65 9i2.76 94 t .99

866~59 906.78 923.49 775.90 940.20 966.60

.

956170

961 .20 81~.70 988. 10 942.90 810.10 860~40 711 .30

1005.60

843~40 1183~20 1160 p 40 1269~SO 1948-00

2253.00 2008.10 2337~80

2763 . 1 2986.9 3366.5 3478.6

••••• S •••••••••••••• ·.·····2.~ •••• a •••••••••••• s ••••••••••••••••••• : ••••••••••••

• NEGATIVE: 10 • UNCH~ 0 • TOTAL; 49

24.66 ( 2.23X) AVERA8E LOSS: -29.0t (-2.36~1

. .

X TRADES PROFITABLE: 79.59 KEY PRICE: CLOSE

• POSITIVE: 39

..

'_VERAGE PROFIT;

4-4: . Dow Jones Key Date Seasonal Ap • 6th -- April 16th

..

a8--

. ,

This list shows how

have gone higher ve often during the indicated dates.

S012W 5112W S212W S312W 5412W

S~12" ~612W

:5712" 5812W S912W 6012W 6112111

6212W 6312W 6412W 6~12W

6612W 6712111 6812W

691ZW 7012W

71' 2W 7212W

7312W 7412W 7S12W

76'211'

7712W

78t2W 7912W 8012W 8112W 8212W 8312W 8412W 8S12W

8612W 8712W 8812W

8912W 9012W 9112W 9Z12W 9J12W 9412W

9/ 1/S0 9/ 4/51 91 2/:52 91 1/53 91 1/54 9/ 1/S5 9/ 4/56

9/ 3/~7 9/ 1/58 91 1/59 9/ 1/60 91 1/61 9/ 4/62

9/ 3/63 9/ 1/64 9/ 3/65 9/ 1/66 91 1/67 9/ 3/68

9/ 2/69 91 1/70 9/ 1/71 91 1/72 9/ 4/73 9/ 3/74 91 2/75 91 1/76 9/ 1/77 9/ 1/78

9/ 4/79 9/ 2/80 9/ 1/81 91 1/82 91 1/83 91 4/84 9/ 3/8:5

9/ 2/96 91 1/87 9/ 1/88 9/ 1/89 9/ 4/90 91 3/91 91 1/92 9/ 1/93 9/ 1/94

230. , 245.0 238.3

194.7 220.0 196.9

226.2 223." 1 192.5 197.9 192.4

204.0 216.5 185.2 148.5 145~5 195.4 151.1

122.0

133. 1 162.5 149.4

198.5

477.6 428.0 414.9 326.8 230.2 333.7 436.2 492.5

423.5 360.5 405.8 354.2 286~7 2S7.7 288.5 416.7 402.2 274~2 323.9 337.9

313.6

38' .0

10/24/50 1·0/24/51 10/24/52 10/26/53 10/25/~4 10/24/5' 10/24/56 10/24/57 10/24/58 10/26/59 10/24/60 10/24/61 10/ S/62 10/24/63 10/26/64 10/25/65

9/21/66 10/241'67 10/24/68

10/24/69 10/26/70 10/25/71 10/24/72 10/15/73 10/24/74 10/23/75

9120176 10/24/77 10/24/78 10/24/79 10/24/90

10/26/81

9116/82 9/14/83 10/24/84 10/24/85 10/24/86 10/26/87 10/24/88

10/24/89 10/24/90 10/24/91 10/26/92 10/2~/93 10/24/94

222~6 2S4.2 236.9

196.~ 221 .0 199_0

233.1 216.3 192e9 200.4 196.7 205 ,1

,

205.5

212.9

15' ~ 0 146.5

18S.4 153.8 124.7

136.0 175.0 159.4

217.5 442.0 526.5 392.3 309.0 2S2.0 340.4 437.0 SJ8~O

4l7.2 341 .7 384.2

364~5 317.7 288.0 297.7 41e~7 407.0 264~7 367.6 344.2 336.4 404.0

"7.5 9.3

- 1 .4 1 .8 1 .0 2 . 1 6.9

,

-6.9

.4 2.5 4.4 , . 1

--11 .0 27.6 2.5 1 .0

-10.0 2.6 2.8 2.9

12.5 10~O 19.0

"3~.6 98.5 --22·.6

-17.7

21 .7 6.6 .8 4S.S

13.7 ~18.7

--21 . ~ 10.2 J 1 .0 30.2 9.3 2.0 4.8

"9~5 43.7 6.4 22.7 23.0

-3.26 3.78+

-.~8

*90 ~4~

1 .08

3.04 -3.08 . 19 1 .26 2.27 ~5S -5.08 14.91 1 .68 .69 --5.12 , .74

"

2.25

2 .16 7.69 6.69 9.57

-7.46 23.01 -5.45

,

-7.5 I ~ e .4 2 . 1 3 . 1 5.3 12 . ,

S~J 5e6 9 ~ 1

12~5 1J~6

2.6 30~2 32.7 33.7 . 23.7 26.4 29 .1 32.0 44.5 54.5 73.5

37.9 136.4 , 13.7

96.0 117 . 7 124.4 125 . 1 170.6

184.4 165.6 144. ,

154.4 185.4

21~.6 224.9 226~9

231 .6 222 .1 26S~9 272.2 29~.O 318rO

ENTRY; 9/ 1 . EXIT:10/24

SL: 5.0"

BUV CLOSE

CONTRACT

-~---~ENTRV--~~~~~DATE~~ -PRICE-

---~---EXIT~-·--~--

~"DATE-"

-PRICE~

PROFIT LOSS(")

X PROFIT· ACCUf1 LOSS(-) TOTAL

••••••••

•••••••• • ••••••

••••••••

••••••• • •••••••

•••••••• • ••••••

"5.43 9.45

1 .99 . 17 9.24

3.2~ "~.20 ~S.JO

2.89

10~81 11 ~ 74 3~21 .48 1 . 18 -3.46 13.51 1 .99

7.25 6.04

Fi

.

e 4-5: Key Date seasonal in

eat

.ZZ.~ ••• = ••• Z=ZC ••••••••••••••••••••••••• as= •••••••• =& •••••••••••••••••••••••••

• POSITIVE: 34 AVERAGE PROFIT:

• NEGATIVE: 11 • UNCH: ·0 • TOTAL: 4S

. .

14.13 ( 4.91X) AVERAGE LOSS: -14~77 (-4.49X)

X TRADES PROFITABLE: 7~.56 KEY PRICE: CLOSE

. .

"40

EXIT: LJ./26

SL ~

SE L L c LO::3E

--·---ENTRV---~-_nDATE-... PRICE-

- ... ~ - - ~ - E X I T - - ._ - - - --

PR1~)F "IT· L. C) £; ~3 ( -_ )

CONTRACT

--DATE---

- PR Ic:.E-

•••••• a.

=====-a.

-======

7eO~TR 7'40GTR 8006TR

8106TR

8206TR 83Ci6TR

8406TR eSOfjTR

8e06TR

~

8706TR

8806TR 8906TR

9006TR 9106TR

9206TR 9.306TR

4/18/78 4/18/79 4/18/80 4/20/81

'1/19/82 "/18/83 ""/iS/St&.

96. 1 ~eJ25 89.21875 76.2:5000 64.1S625

64. 12:500

'-"/26/78 I..J. / 2 6 / 7 ~)

4/22/80 4/27/21

4/26182

q./26./83

4/26184 4/26/S~

LI-/28/8(.) 1+127/87 ~/26/88 4-/26/89

4/26/90 4/2€·/91 ~/28/9C'

~/26/93

95 . 12500 ea 1 a7~'J 77 ~ C'3 1 2S 03.09375

64.09375 77.312~O

65.18750 71 .00000

1.03125 1,03125 -.78125 1 " 0"32 SO .0312!5 " ~)3750

-.12500

1 - \)'~2 50 l~ . 2 1 875 1 .3"-/5()0

.03125 . 187~O -1 .5937:5 .06250 .25000 1 . 1 2500

.

78.2~OOO

6~.062S0

~/18/85 72.06250 q/18/86 103.87500 ~/20/e7 92.~62~O

4/18/88 88.56250 4/18/89 89.84375

~/18/90 90.18750 4/18/91 _ 96.28125

~/20/92 98.50000

I

4/19/93 112"~6e7S

~j 9 · (j 5 (5 2 5 .~ 1 " 1 8750 88.53125 89.65625 RS.5937S 96.21875 98.25000

111.34375

•••

••

II: •• =- ~ :& _ • =- = • II: •• =- • = = ;: = -- = :: :I: = = = = = = = :: = = ... - z. :: = :I: = = = = = = ~ ::I = •••• - •• = :I _ ;.:I • • •• ,:c

POSITIVE: 14

AVERAGE PROFIT:

NEGATIVE:

o

2

1 .00 ( 1 . 11-'.) AVERAGE LOSS:

% TRADES PROFITABLE:' 87.50

This "no-brainer" shows a bearish tendancy in

ondFut

8

,

41

... __

.,. PROFIT LOSS ( -. )

ACCUM ,·OTAL

1 .07 1 . 16 - 1 .02 1 .66

.05 1 .20 - . 19 1 . ~7

4.06

1 . "'9 .014-

.21 1 .77

.06 .25 1 .00

1. 0312~· 2 .062S()

1.28125 2.34375

2.37500 3.31250 3 . 1 8750 4.25000 8.4-6875 9.8~375 9.87500

10.06250 11.6~625 11.71875

11.96875 13.09375

TOTAL: 16

-- • LI-:S ( - • 6 1 ,. )

KEV PR ... ~ :E: CLOSE



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Live og prices have gone higher

from

ctober 30th to

ovem er 27th.



... ~

ENTRY: 10/30

EXIT: 1 1/27 SL :

6.0%

BllY CLOSE

CONTRACT

------ENTRy------

--DATE-- -PRICE-

ACCUf1 TOTAL

-------EXIT-------

--DATE-- -PRICE-

PROFIT LOSS(-)

% PROFIT LOSS(-)

,... ..... ----~ ...... __ ..-._--,__.._._

--- ._.~-- ..

-- ~

_. .... __ _

.............. ~ ,..

.... _ ..... _ ._.._.

-._..-.--. ~-

_ 4iIIIIII .....

-_ -

.. -- .............

_ _ .... __ -----

~- .. ._- -

...... _--_ _

£\712LH 6812LH t!,912LH

7012l_H 7112LH

7212LH 731ZLH

7412L.H '7512LH

7e.12Lr~

7"'7 • ~L~

t L , .•

10/30/67 10/30/68 10/'30./09

1 0/30,/70 111 1171 1 0/30/·72

10/30l'l73

1 0/'30/74 1 0_,'30/'75 11,·/ 1/76 10./31/77 1 O/30/'7:;:~

10/30179 10 . ./30/80

1 0_,'30/81 11/ 1/82

1 0" / ~3 1 ,"" 8 3 1 0 .I :3 0 " ::: 4

19.32 19.00 26.55

16. 14 2 1 . 19 2.9.07 43.50 40 . 19 52.20 30 . 19 31? . 1 2

50 . 17

37.39 51 .27

48.70 52.97

4:3 , 32

II :.:: n r.

., ~ to ... ._}

11/27/67 11/27 /"68 11/28/69 1 1/2 7 /' ~lO

11/29/71 ., 1/2 7/'72

11/27/73 1 112 7/7 q. 11 12:3/'75 11/29/76 11 128/77 1 1 ,12 7 /°78

11/27/79 11.128/80 1 1 /. 2 o 18 1 11129,/82

19~45 20.20 28.92

16.55 22.25 .30 .30 44 .07'

41.72. 53.45 33.76 41 .95 53.32

. 1 3 1 .20 2.37 ,41

1 .06 1 .23 .57

1 .53

.67 6.32

8.93 2.54 5.00 1.1-. 23

1 .31

3 · E: 1 2.39 11.}33

7 . 23 6.28

13.00

- 1 . ~.O

. 13 1 .33 3.70 4- . 11 5 0 17 6.40 6.97

8.50 9.75

·,3 . 32

3.57

2.83 3 . 15 4_86

'6. 15 .J 9 . 2~O

24. 16

!l 7 7/1 t( ., • .:J ~ ,j'"

7812LH 7\~ 12LH

80 'f 2LI1

a 1 12 LH 8212LH

42.25

50.45 45 . 17 56.42

42.00 52 - 6fJ

r~." .. .. .:; c.:

.~~ 57

.~. . ...

19.81

n 7 ?L

l. ~.J • '~~I

3 . .q.s

6.51

'~71"~' H

I~' ...... ' .c... L .

1 1/'28.l83 11/27;€:4

-1 .32 4.55

-3.05 9.47

2 1 .94 2 I:, · 49

8412L.H

t3 c:; 1 1"; t H 1 O/·~30./85 47. .. t 1 1 ""7 '81:' 48 :'0 1 ~ .:. ':\ ..,7 27. 54
" . · Ij · i
' \.: ~ .... ~ \J / La. I J ' .... I L. ~ L ... '

,-. A 'J ., l H 1 0 ! -x 0 i::'j 6 c." '7 to 1 1 , .... , P J~ ,-. .& r.-I) .60 2 50 4 71 30 · 04
':. ~ c. _. ~ ........ , ., / I.. • I ( .. r. "\..} ..
I"".J _. _..- \....", r.' .. J ... • ..
:3 7 1 2l~ '~1 10/-30/:=:·7 42 .97 1 1 l~ .... , /r'7 44. 7'~ , 7r: 4 07 31 79
' / L. f / C1 t~ · ,)
........ · i-
.::;. CI f :::' L H 1 0 "'31 /(:'-0 -4 1 15 1 1 :I ~ ~ .. "I / i'., ':' '79 t~ ? 'I .7 t~ 63 27 .30 46
.... .. ...
1: I I • .1,. ,. (.t t_J to ~._ I :.... c. IJ . _, .. (All' ~ ._;III.,.. .. ..
- ...... . , t.r.. f "" · .. . ... ..

r
.-:.~ 1 '~l H .. 0 » -; G ) Ct .-.. 45 75 1 1 /» 7/c:,.;, SO . 4 (I 5 1 5 1 ., 26 """'1: 61
.... ., t'" L.. , I t I ' .. - .' I,J 7 '" c... .. \. .- .' .:., ~t
.. · • . • •
.",. r 12LH 1 0 .,' .~ 0 _,. ... M. li e- t 42 ·t 1 / 2. '7 ft' ~~J 0 .... ~ e: 0 1 .08 2 1 0 36 . 1-,9
. -I l 5,-
.. t ~ , ... ' ....1'
..... J -._ , ., .. • · 'III oil ..... 1 1 ,.., 1 H 1 o .I··~~O /9 1 .{~ 1 ~ 1:- 1 1 /?~ #91 42 07 q.r 1 (J 1 37 1 1
'. ).
.... , 1\. 1 ;' I;.... , I .-
.. t ....... ....,. ~ .. ..... - • • • ..
.;J" 'J '~1 I H 10/30,/92 4 '=' q. " -I t I ":., ·7 I' Q '.:' .q. q. -". 2 20 r: 19 39 i 1
,e, l1li I') .. .J
J< .._ 4 ~ '- _ La... • t "'~ t... I .'" L J ... t.... iIII __ J
- ,- ... .. • .. P'
".: t .~ 1 '"\ I 'I 1 1 ./ 4 ,,~~ 49 '-' ....... 1 , .1 1 0 /";' 3 ~.~ .. 1 7 -- 7 Cor r ... h ~O ~l t 26
"41" _. f: ., •. I c.. • ,.~ .J C.
-~ ,. .1 ~ .... (._ . ~ 'I' 'lit
.. .... -:; ~ .... olio .. - • • .... ...... ~ .. .... .-...- ,...a. ~ - ,.,."... - _- - .. _._ ,_. .,... ,.... ...- ilia.- ._. -- .. !til __ ._. __ ~ _. 111'l1li" .,._.... ,.. _.. iIIIIIIIII .....

..... .__.. ~ ~ ,... ~ --- ~ ...-. ~ ..,. - ~ ..- __ .-. ""111 __ ~ _ III __ ~ ~ "'~ ...

oM- P i-·-' I I I \ I f~_- .

~ U~:r I" '-

5

# TOT~~L:

27

o

., 1 ,;

L. _ w·

5 II I~ ~t \ ~ "'~.~J

% TRADES PROFITABLE:



Fi

e 4-8: Key Date Seasonal Live Hogs

..

43

HE·H COHHOD I T Y ROV I SORS • ! Nt •

..
I , I •
s_ ,

_ i
,
, •
.. " I I , , •• ~
A ,t I t

----.......... I '" '" ,~ .

%

l "':-_!I II _. ~ •• __ I_~_f.~ .L~ .... ~ . I .•• ~ .•. '~ \t, ~"_ .,~ 11 14.1 I~ l_~ I~. 'I • • _ ,_ .. , , • • I I

The July/ ovember

---oybean Sprea is

ve popular but not too

~

reli·able.

t

...

:I

I

" I

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~t'~~~~~~~ '~~'~'~'_'t.'~'~.~'~~~~I~~~r~t·~~~~~~I~~~k~~~~r~~r~'~~ '~~~~~I ~~"", .~~~,~~ .'~(~:~.~t'~::"~~~ ;~~~~~"iiL~'"~C~~~~,~~:~ I~ ,""~~"~-\~~~ •• J~ '~"~:~'~'~' ~["I"' ~ ~JP',~.\ "P.~", _ " ," ", "~~I" ". -: ""'"'" """ "

" pli~""""""'-"iI':';t,N'tli-.<~ ~<;\-eoI. " "~ .... ' ,~' .. ~ ... "," • "," :' "_", P_ .... ~ ".".-

i.l. _'.'IIIII'Ii" ~~'''' LT , W'W:6~t',.I.t:I;-'II. ~ Ii:t,) ,.. I-II~~ ~~ ~II : ....,. I. I~J I •• ", :', I... r ; •. .I' • •• _ • I I. I • .'. •

• • - _. •• - - •• _ ••• - _ • -'. ._- • - r" • • - • • • •• ••• •• I ••• _ _ _ • •• _ _ _ • _ I ••• _ :. •• '. • 1_. I' '1. I ••• •• ._

Jll. SOYBEANS' va. NOV SOYBEANS

1967 TttRU 1992

SEASONAL JEEKLY SPRERD COHPOSITE (VartRt- 1-

,

Tt£RE ,~ ,. f. (5K OF LOS5 I N FUTURE5 TftAD I tt.J

I

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. .

. . .

. } ':.

a e . erns eitvs

. .

-

HBH COHHODITY ADVISORS, INC.

WEEKLY SPREAD CO~SITE () I.

ltOE ISA IISIC ~ LOSS IN fUTURE5 lRADINO

t •. w= ..-.._~. ~~-...-........~~__._ ____- ~- ~~ . _. • __

INOEll

SEA

, I The September
. arc
-
.
, I Oats Spread has
,
been ve reliable


I
on seasonals.

I I •

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ttAR OATS "I. SEP OATS

........

W. • II • ., .. .1 .e II II II II. .., • • .• I I I tIK.

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