~ Pergamon

Ar_.,.,. ... c h,,""_"f Vol. :9. So. 16. pp. !9o&3-1955. 1995 Copyright C 1995 ElscV1Cf Sa~ l'~ Printed in Great BmalD. All nglUS rnerved IlS~-ZJ10;9S 59.SO" CWO

1352-2310(94)00362-9

ENSO VARIATIONS AND DROUGHT OCCURRENCE IN INDONESIA AND THE PHILIPPINES

J. R. E. HARGER UNESCOjROSTSEA, l1n. M.H. Thamrin 14. Jakarta, Indonesia

(First received 20 January 1993 and in final form 6 October 1994)

Abstract-The "EI Nino-Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) consists of a sympathetic movement involving the Pacific ocean and associated atmosphere in an essentially chaotic manner along the equator. The system oscillates between extremes of the so-called "warm events" usually lasting 1 or 2 yr and involving movement of warm sea water from the western Pacific along the equator to impact on the west coast of the American continent and "cold events" associated with easterly trade-wind-induced flows of colder water from the eastern Pacific towards the west.

Information drawn from meteorological records in southeast Asia clearly indicates that each event is unique in terms of the signature which it imposes on the rainfall and temperature from location to location. Nevertheless, a strong underlying pattern within the context of each event. itself apparently initiated or molded by the character of the preceding years. can be detected. This pattern permits relatively circumscribed predictions of forward conditions (drought intensity) for 2-3 yr. to be made once the event "locks in" for the duration of the warm event and at least 1 yr beyond. The character of the intervening non-ENSO years can also be projected but in a more tenuous, though fairly regular manner.

When the non-ENSO years leading up to a warm event are scored in terms of the extent to which they depart from the secular warming trend for the warmest month using data from Jakarta and Sernarang on the north coast of Java. the cumulative temperature deviations signal the character of the upcoming E~SO event. This signal does not. however. allow an exact determination to be made with respect to whether or not an ENSO event will occur in the next year. For the available historical instrumental data. all markedly upward-moving traces eventually delivered a hOI dry season in east Indonesia. This sort of tendency within non-ENSO blocks can thus serve as a caution in the sense that a very hot ENSO event is likely in the offing. The background data can also be used to predict actually the probable intensity of an EN SO in the upcoming year in terms of its drought potential, should such an event take place in reality. In this respect the correlation between the cumulative temperature deviation of the inter-ENSO blocks in relation to the temperature deviation of the first ENSO year is 0.43.

In the region of southeast Asia represented by Indonesia and the Philippines. relatively secure predictions concerning likely upcoming droughts can be made in specific instances once an ENSO event "locks in" for successive years (2-4) until the warm event set terminates. In the case of Java and within succeeding inter-ENSO years. further predictions can be made with reference to successive years in terms of the character of preceding years. This system. in conjunction with predictions generated by models could form the basis of a crop advisory service for prediction of drought or rainfall within dry seasons from one year to the next. It is anticipated that a broad description of temperature and rainfall patterns associated with space and time with ENSO events will lead to better food security for the region as long as sudden changes do not occur.

Ke» word inde:c: EI Nino. southeast Asia. drought. prediction, global change. warm events.

with easterly trade-wind-induced flows of colder

water from the eastern Pacific towards the west. An The "El Nino-Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) consists atmospheric pressure relationship described by the of a sympathetic movement involving the Pacific difference in sea-level air pressure between Tahiti and ocean and associated atmosphere in an essentially Darwin. reverses as the two extremes are approached. chaotic manner along the equator. The system moves This pressure difference is termed the "Tahiti-Darwin between extremes of the so-called "warm events", here index" (T -D Index) or "southern oscillation index" termed ENSO events, usually lasting one or two years (SOl). A strong downward trend with a consequent and involving movement of warm sea water from the low (negative) index value takes place with prowestern Pacific along the equator to impact on the---,ressive development of ,a "high" over Darwin and west coast of the American continent and "cold a "low" over Tahiti Indicating the start of an ENSO events", here termed non-ENSO events, associated warm event. This condition apparently coincides with

INTRODt:CTION

1943

1944

1. R. E. HARGER

the release of water from the region of the western Pacific and the subsequent west to east transmission in the form of a "Kelvin wave" channeled along the equator, and often with the establishment of drought conditions over much of Indonesia, particularly in the eastern region.

Timing for the onset of the major warm event activity is essentially unpredictable. Limited success in identifying some aspects of preconditions associated with ENSO events has recently appeared possible; however, the overall character of the interaction remains obscure. This paper describes some of the regular features linked with temperature fluctuations and ENSO associated droughts which have been described as "teleconnections". The database consists mainly of atmospheric temperature and rainfall records from ground stations in Indonesia and the Philippines from 1866-1993, a period in which 28 ENSO events have been recorded. The information clearly indicates that each event is unique in terms of the signature which it imposes on the rainfall and temperature from location to location. Nevertheless, a strong underlying pattern within the context of each event, itself apparently initiated or molded by the character of the preceding non-ENSO years, can be detected. This pattern permits relatively circumscribed predictions of forward conditions (drought intensity) for 2-3 yr, to be made once the event "locks in". The character of the intervening non·ENSO years can also be projected but in a more tenuous. though fairly regular manner.

TELECONNECTIONS

Nicholls (1987) describes particular effects associated with the 1982-1983 ENSO (warm) event and defines ENSO.c1imate teleconnections as "climate anomalies which tend to occur during most if not all ENSO events". The influence of the ENSO (warm) events is apparently far reaching. Mullan (1991) reports that during such situations in the Pacific seasonal rainfall is increased for Kiribati. Tuvalu and the northern Cooks but decreased in southern Cooks, Fiji, and Tonga. Brookfield and Allen (1991) cite the "great dry event" of 1877-1878 as associated with global impact being the proximal cause of millions of deaths from famine in India and China.

A general account of suspected teleconnections associated with ENSO events is given by Kerr (1992) which may be summarized as warm and dry in southeast Asia extending north and south of the equator with a wet area around the equator in the central Pacific with another dry area in the northeast of south America. Wet areas in the southeast and southwest of the U.S.A as well as northeast of south America, southeast of south America and also east Africa. Warm areas occur in south Asia, east Asia. northwest of north America, southeast Africa, southeast Australia and east of south America.

Most of the "teleconnections" illustrated by Kerr (1992) appear to have been based on the effects of ENSO occurrences in recent years particularly the 1981-t983 response. Simpson (1992) gives a detailed description of the effects observed along the west coast of north America as the result of events in 1982-1983 and 1940-1941. Rainfall effects are also reported along the coast of Chile by Nunez et al, (1992) after analyzing 26 yr of information. Here. the northern sector (18° south to 330 south) exhibited almost no response. the central area (330 south to ·ne south) was associated with diminished rainfall in the cold-ENSO (non-ENSO) phase with colder winters lasting up to 2-3 yr and warm-EN SO (ENSO) phase with rainfall 2-3 times the average of 300-"+00 mm yr- 1. The southern section (370 south to ..+20 south) showed a slightly less severe positive rainfall anomaly in the ENSO effect and a smaller negative rainfall anomaly in the non-EN SO phase. The MSLA (mean sea level anomaly) at Caldera, in the north. was correlated (r = 0.6) with the rainfall anomalies in central and southern Chile with a 6 month positive lag thus enabling its use as a "physical advisory". E~-SO effects are reported as affecting communities of marine organisms on the west coasts of north and south America (Glynn, 1988).

In southeast Asia rainfall is correlated , ... ·ith Wright's (1989) sea surface temperature-southern oscillation index so that cross-correlation coefficients in eastern Indonesia are - 0.7-l for Ujung Pandang (Sulawesi), - 0.61 Denpasar (Bali), - 0.78 Banda.

- 0.57 Samarinda (Kalimantan) and so forth for rainfall data from 1911-1939 (Moore, personal communication). The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively relate patterns shown by ENSO events to some of the resulting teleconnections. particularly those associated with droughts. by drawing on data from southeast Asia in the main.

INDO~ESIA

Historical data indicate that ENSO years as experienced by the Island of Java are either much warmer than non-ENSO years or only slightly. if at all, warmer than normal (non-ENSO) years. A distinct oscillation is detectable within the ENSO warm event set of the cycle (defined as those years wherein the Sal index is consistently negative) so that, in eastern Indonesia, hot-dry years are almost always followed by cooler wet years and r;ice cersa. This pattern also extends to include the year immediately following the terminal year of an ENSO warm event set.

The initial year of an ENSO warm event set may be either hot with a long dry season or relatively cool (nearer to the temperature of a non·ENSO year) and having a short dry season. Additionally, this first year also shows a strong tendency to parallel the character of the year immediately following the terminal year of the previous warm event set (18/27). The increasing

ENSO variations and drought in Indonesia and The Philippines

1945

annual trend in air temperature exhibited by the mean monthly values over the period 1866-1993, for data taken together from both Jakarta (06'11" south, 106°50" east) and Serna rang (07°00" south, 11OQ24" east) is 1.9'C (0.014'C per year from 25.45' to 27.35°C).

RAINFALL PATIERNS

As the result of the severe drought in Java of 1877-1878, which was ENSO-related (Kiladis and Diaz, 1986), rainfall data were collected in a systematic manner in Indonesia. Not surprisingly, rainfall during the dry season in Java (June-October) is negatively associated with annual temperature and in particular with that or the warmest month. Since regular warming can be detected throughout the available record, the character of a given year can be measured by examining the extent to which it departs from the secular trend. The length of the dry season (number of months with less than 100 mm rainfall) in central Java, Wonosari at Wonogiri (7°58" south, 110°30" east), a station having an almost continuous rainfall record since 1909, can be related to the Jakarta/Sernarang temperature record. The warmest month deviation from the secular trend is directly correlated with the length of the dry season, r = 0.46, n = 78, p = 0.00002 for all available years to 1993.

Because of the above-noted oscillations within the ENSO warm event set, deviations from the secular trend shown by the warmest months in ENSO years for the Jakarta/Sernarang data set also show a strong

negative relationship with the length of the following dry season (number of months with less than 100 mm rainfall) at Wonosari in central lava, r = - 0.66. n = 28, p < 0.0002 (1909-1993), Fig. 1.

Rainfall records are available from a wider variety of Indonesian stations from 1951 onwards and a similar relationship with the J akarta/Sernarang temperature record and the length of the following dry season can be seen across a number of dispersed Java locations (Jakarta, Tegal, Yogyakarta. Surabaya. Banguwangi) together with a station from east Indonesia (Mataram in Lombok) when taken in combination, r = - 0.36, n = 78, p = 0.00137 (1951- 1990). Fig. 2.

The mean monthly rainfall inside the current year dry season defined as June, July, August. September, October for 1909-1993 in the Wonosari data set is significantly related to the temperature deviates of the warmest months of the Jakarta/Semarang record. r = - 0.58, n = 78, p < 0.00001. The total amount of rain falling inside the following year dry season is also positively related to the preceding ENSO year warmest month temperature deviate, r = 0.60, n ,.. 23. P = 0.00076 for this period, Fig. 3.

A similar response using rainfall data from 1951 to 1991 for the Java stations mentioned above (Jakarta. TegaJ, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, Banguwangi), together with the station from east Indonesia (Matararn in Lombok), is also positive and significant, r = 0.38. n = 78, P = 0.0005 with respect to the temperature deviates of the Jakarta/Sernarang data set in the preceding ENSO years. Fig. 4.

" ra

CI'J o

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identified by,reference to x'axis.

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Res idua 1 waracst lIonth teJllp. deg C. Ja.karta..

Fig. 1. Length of subsequent year dry period vs ENSO year wannest month deviation.

1946

1. R. E. HARGER

• - - ...

- - -:-

19

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Deuiation frOll secular trend. degrees C. 1966-1991 trend. D.ta 1951-1991.

Fig, 2. Deviation from secular trend warmest months ENSO years vs next dry period.

69

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Fig. 3. Mean monthly rainfall. dry season subsequent year vs ENSO year warmest month deviation.

Particular ENSO events are distinctly associated with drought in Java and they also coincide with low sea-level. Figure 5 is a plot of mean annual (raw or unadjusted) sea-level measurements at Panjung, in the Sunda Strait and the mean monthly rainfall over the

five dry months (June, July, August, September, October) at Tegal in northwest Java.

The relationship is strong (r = 0.7) with high rainfall over the dry season associated with high sea-level and low rainfall with low sea-level.

ENSO variations and drought in Indonesia and The Philippines

19.17

129

'Stations"4re':"'~xarta~"'Teqal~'~'Joqya~rta',"'Sur4bd!ia;'';';'_

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WarlllCSt mnth Jakarta, dcuiation fro. sccular trcnd 1866-1991 trend. Data 1951-1991

Fig. 4. Deviation from secular trend warmest months ENSO years vs next dry period.

Furthermore, the ENSO events of 1976, 1982-1983, 1986-1987 are all clustered on the bottom left-hand side of the graph. low rainfall and low sea-level. This relation arises because water in the Pacific has "surged" back to the east and the remainder of the ocean has "thinned-out" on the western margin. In general, it is thought that the warm-water surge drags the towering cumulus rain-clouds (Hadley cells) away from Indonesia and off over the Pacific ocean resulting in the droughts in Java, the Philippines and Australia.

Individual ENSO-blocks are defined here as constituting the sequence starting with the year immediately following the terminal year of a warm event set and running through to include the next warm event set. Thus, an ENSO-block is terminated by the last year of a warm event set and the subsequent year initiates the new ENSO-block. The character of individual ENSO-blocks can be determined by the extent to which constituent years depart from the overall secular warming shown by the warmest month temperatures in successive years. The years between one ENSO warm event set and the next are herein termed "inter-ENSO years". Figure 6 shows the patterns of cumulative ENSO-block deviations of warmest months from the overall secular trend for the Jakarta/Sernarang data.

The cumulative ENSO-block warmest month temperature deviations from the secular trend shown by the Jakarta/Sernarang data indicated in Fig. 6 are also associated with the mean monthly dry season

rainfall of successive (current) years in Wonosari (Fig. 7). The relationship is r = - 0.36. n = 75. p = 0.001. A similar relationship exists between the cumulative temperature deviations and the length of the current dry season at Wonosari (Fig. 8, r = 0.23, n = 75, P = 0.04). These trends are strongly influenced by the ENSO years, as shown later. The inter-ENSO years show an even more marked effect. The cumulative inter-ENSO-block temperature deviations and the mean monthly current dry season rainfall correlation is r = - 0.45, n = 50, p = 0.00 1. The correlation between the cumulative inter-ENSOblock temperature deviations and the length of the dry season is: r = 0.4, n = 50, p = 0.0036. These relationships are almost as sharp as those between the individual warmest month temperature deviations and the character of the concurrent dry season for each year (r = - 0.61, n = 78, p < 0.00001 and r = 0.47, n = 78, P = 0.0001) for mean dry season rainfall and length of dry season, respectively (all years), and they show that the overall temperature pattern reflected in Fig. 6 also has a systematic association with dry season rainfall.

The cumulative ENSO-block temperature deviations from the secular trend, including the final ENSO years are significantly correlated with the character of the dry season in the following year. In the case of mean monthly rainfall during the dry season, using the Jakarta/Semarang temperature record and the rainfall at Wonosari the relation is r = - 0.39, n = 73, P = 0.0005 (Fig. 9).

1948

1. R. E. HARGER

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Sea-leveL height in CIII, Panjang station. Sanda Strait.

Fig. S. Tegal, lava-rainfall vs sea-level in Sunda St.

1669

1687

19'35

1914

1941

1968

T t.e (years)

S~lIIbo I sets: 1,2.3 ..... 5.6.7.8.9.a.+ ,- ,A .**.$.0 ,x,>.< ,= ,-,], [, { .} .) I ( ,@ (tata.l=Z8)

Fig. 6. Cumulative temperature deviations from secular trend (OC).

---

For length of the subsequent dry season, the domin~teij-:by the effects of the ENSO years

relationship is: r = 0.45, ,. = 73, p = 0.00007 (Fig. 10). themselves since when these are removed from the Although Figs 9 and 10 show the existence of data set the relationships become relatively tenuous. a marked pattern overall. it is nonetheless one that is This means that the correlation does not provide

ENSO variations and drought in Indonesia and The Philippines

1949

zeo

129

X=Jahrtd/Seurdll!J teaperatnres .J

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Cumllatiue FJIStl-block tell perature deuiation

Fig. 7. Cumulative ENSO-block temperature deviations and dry season rainfall.

8

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Cunulatiue EKSO-block te.perature deuiation

Fig. 8. Cumulative ENSO-block temperature deviations and dry season rainfall.

a particularly secure predictive mechanism from 1 yr to the next; however, it can still be used to develop a meaningful "indication" of the likely situation to corne (r = - 0.22, n = 51, p = 0.12 and r = 0.18,

n = 51, P = 0.18 for mean monthly rainfall and length of dry season respectively).

Examination of available air temperature and rainfall records for selected stations in Java, Indonesia

1950
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Fig. 9. Cumulative warmest month temperature deviations and next dry season rainfall.

8

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Fig. 10. Cumulative warmest month temperature deviations and length next dry season.

shows that for ENSO years responses, as indicated above are, largely predictable from year to year, based on recurring ENSO-related patterns once a warm-event "locks-in". The following example outlines the result of predictions made 1 yr ahead of the dry seasons in 1992 and 1993.

The maximum mean monthly air temperature from the Jakarta/Semarang data (Java. Indonesia) in 1991, the first year of an ENSO event lasting over 4 yr, was 29.1°C. This represented a positive deviation of O.4sac from the secular trend 1866-1991. This infonnation when related to past trends in Wonosari

ENSO variations and drought in Indonesia and :!Jle Philippines

1951

central Java suggested that the 1992 dry period would be around 4 months (low 3.2, high 4.7) with rainfall less than 100 mm and that the monthly rainfall for this period would be around 56 mm (low 40 rnm, high around 75 mm) per month. Since the 1991 warmest month was much hotter than predicted by the secular trend, the 1992 dry season was therefore expected to be relatively short. In 1992 for Jakarta, the dry season spanned 2.5 months (from late August through to the beginning of November) and the mean monthly rainfall over the period June-October was 127.4 mm. The equivalent interval in Wonosari was 1.3 months and the rainfall 96.2 mm mo - 1. In aggregate, the prediction was verified in that the dry season was restricted in 1992 although it was somewhat wetter than expected. The 1992 data in turn suggested that the Jakarta dry season for 1993 would be hotter than normal (by + 0.3°C) with a relatively long dry period in the area of Wonosari (estimated as 7 months with rainfall less than 100 mm and with rainfall around 5 mm mo - 1 for June-October) because 1992 was relatively cool (warmest month deviation - 0.69°C) and wet.

For 1993, the length of the dry season at Wonosari was 5.1 months and the rainfall was 35.8 mm mo -1. In Jakarta. the warmest month for 1993 was 0.51°C warmer than the secular trend for all ENSO years since l866 but the dry season was interrupted with several bouts of rain so that a period of only 2.3 months was recorded with rainfall less than 100 mm and was thus wetter than the region to the east (Wonosari) which indeed suffered a drought although not as severe as expected. Figures 1 and 3 show the relationship between ENSO warmest month temperature deviates from the secular trend and the characteristics of the following dry season for the period 1909-1993. To review, Fig. 1 shows the overall relationship between the deviation of the warmest month temperature from the Jakarta/Sernarang secular trend for ENSO years and the length of the subsequent dry season at Wonosari (consecutive months with rainfall tess than 100 mm). Figure 3 shows the same response as measured by mean rainfall for the months June, July, August, September and October (that is, the normally "expected" dry season).

As mentioned. although the temperature prediction for 1993 was. by and large verified, the rainfall at Wonosari somewhat exceeded the estimate. This might be related to the unusual situation wherein the SOl initially fell towards the end of 1989, recovered briefly by the middle of 1990 and then fell again to remain low throughout 1991 to mid- 1994 (at time of writing). This drop spans over 4 yr (57 months with 6 + vel and has been paralleled in the instrumental record from 1911-1914 (33 months with 2 +ve) and 1939-1942 (37 months with 1 +ve). The Indonesian record. however, shows no particular pattern in regard to rainfall following ENSO years 1911, 1913, 1914, 1941, 1942, 1991. and 1992 (see Figs 1 and 3).

Hints of droughts associated with similar situations involving extended ENSO conditions can also be found in indications of reduced run-off from river systems in northeast Australia at earlier times (Kenchington R., personal communication). The situation posed by the conditions of 1991 and 1992 led to wetter dry seasons than suggested by the data overall (from 1907 to 1993) but the responses are still well inside the 95% confidence limits indicating that as far as the systematic pattern experienced in Java was concerned. the system was otherwise not seeming to display any form of gross abnormality.

Kiladis and Diu (1989) demonstrated that preENSO years show higher rainfall in Indonesia in the dry season than in the following ENSO years. There are three exceptions to this generalization: 1929, 1967 and 1985. Of these 1929 and 1967 were exceptionally dry for identified non·ENSO years but both show positive deviations from the secular warming trend and the reduced rainfall is otherwise consistent with this pattern. Variations of this type raise a question concerning "partial oscillations" on the western boundary of the Pacific such as that indicated by the lowered SOl index in 1990 (down to - 3.4; Kousky, 1993) prior to the initiation of the larger deviation associated with the ENSO starting in 1991. In this case the length of the 1990 Wonosari dry period was 6.3 months, a figure equivalent to the conditions pertaining in many "warm·ENSO" situations. In recent years the Kelvin wave associated with an ENSO event has often been detected in NovemberDecember and the warming trend noted above for the northern hemisphere also seems to build up at around the same time. This was not the case in 1993, however, where a Kelvin wave was detected first in August then again in late October (Kousky, 1993).

The Philippines annual temperature record tends to be bimodal with the major peak in April-May and the minor in October-November. The deviations from the secular trend for the warmest months of ENSO years in the Jakarta/Semarang data set and those of the Manila record are positively associated (r = 0.508, n = 23, p = 0.0112). The dry season in Manila covers December of the preceding year followed by January-April and the warmest month occurs usually in April or May. The warmest month in Manila can be used to predict the upcoming warmest month in the dry season affecting Java (usually June-October). The regression equation for ENSO years is y = 0.00014 + 0.238:, where y is the predicted de .. 'ia~on ',;. degrees centigrade from the secular trend for the warmest month data in Jakarta and x is the warmest month deviation for Manila for ENSO years (r = 0.37, n = 26, p = 0.06). For all years. r = 0.23, n = 81, P = 0.042.

Although in the Manila data set the warmest month temperature is not clearly associated with ENSO conditions as is the case with Jakarta, the intensity of the dry season is systematically related to the deviation from the secular trend of the warmest

1952

1. R. E. HARGER

month. For instance, the length of the dry season (contiguous months with less than 100 mm rainfall) and the average rainfall for the 5 months of the dry season (December, January-April) are significantly correlated with the warmest month deviations from the secular trend for all years (respectively, r = 0.49 and r = 0.39, n == 79, P < 0.001).

The warmest month deviation from the secular trend for Manila and Jakarta are correlated (r = 0.42), all years. For Manila 1903-1993 (14°35" north, 120"59" east) the length of the following dry season (months < 100' mm rainfall) is also negatively related to the warmest month deviation from the secular trend of the preceding ENSO year (r = - 0.5, n = 15, P = 0.052). In the Manila record, ENSO years have longer dry periods than non~ENSO years. The deviation of the warmest month mean temperature from the overall secular trend exhibited by the data . forENSO years is related to the length of ~the accompanying dry season r ""' 0.56, n = 25, p = 0.009. This means that within ENSO years as a whole the wanner ENSO years are associated with long dry seasons and cooler ENSO years with short dry seasons. Heat forcing due to insolation is presumably mediated by removal of cloud-cover eastwards into the Pacific.

As mentioned previously, the conditions associated with the dry season in an ongoing ENSO year for Manila (December, January-April), can be used to estimate the dry season productivity of Java just before its onset. There is, however, no significant association between the Java warmest month deviation in the ENSO year and the following Manila warmest month deviation. The effect of a warming event in the western Pacific thus appears to show up a little earlier in the northern hemisphere. The tendency of the deviations from the secular trend for both data sets to be associated for all years is also underlined by the relationship between the Jakarta/ Semarang deviations from the secular trend shown by the annual mean temperatures (degree centigrade) in relation to the deviations from the Manila secular trend for annual mean temperature (r = 0.423, n = 77, p = O.OOO11).

Forward relationships can also be determined for other places in the Philippines. In Davao, 1947-1990 (07"07" north, 125<>39" east) the warmest ENSO month deviation from the secular trend is positively related to the mean monthly rainfall over the driest months (December, January-April) of the following year (r = 0.55, n = 14, P = 0.041). The deviation of the mean temperature for November is also significantly correlated with the length of the dry season (months less than 100 mm rainfall) following an ENSO year (r ~ 0.75, n "" 16, P = 0.0007), Fig. 11.

In Baguio (16°25" north, 120"36" east), the Philippines, the air temperature data are available from 1921-1991 with the rainfall from January 1951 to 1991. The mean temperature of the hottest month of the year has increased from 18.92 to 21.45°C over

the period 1921-1991. The temperature of the warmest months of ENSO years does not differ significantly from that of non·ENSO years. The annual temperature curve is bimodal, Rainfall is at a minimum for 5 months (December. January. February, March, April). The deviation from the secular trend shown by the mean temperature of the warmest months of ENSO years is positively associated with the mean monthly dry season rainfall on the subsequent year p = 0.03, r = 0.58, n = 15 (Fig. 12). A similar trend is also intimated for all years p =' 0.07. r = 0.28, n = 40.

The Baguio rainfall data for all available years show that the precipitation in the wettest month has been increasing steadily since 1951 (y = - 222525 -i- 11.89x, n == 41,r ::::;; 0.35, p ""' 0.024), where y is the maximum monthly rainfall in a given year (mm) and x is time (yr), The deviations of this rainfall and warmest month temperature from the secular trends are also negatively associated at this station. Thus, the conditions in the preceding dry season can be used to predict potential rainfall impact in the upcoming wet season (within the time frame of the data). Although some GeMs have predicted that global warming will be accompanied by shorter periods of heavier rainfall the record from non-mountain stations such as Manila (rainfall 1865-1991) does not clearly show this tendency. For non-ENSO years the trend has on the whole been upward since 1870 but very high rainfall (1469.1 mm in September) was recorded in l867 which largely negates the relationship overall, Very high rainfall (1983.0 mm) was also recorded in August 19 L 9 (an ENSO year). There is no significant upward trend for the period 1951-1991 in this station for all years but the non-ENSO years have shown an increase. For Cebu (10° 18" north, 123058" east) the temperature deviation of the wannest month in all years is associated with the mean monthly rainfall in the following dry season-January, February, March. April, Max (r = - 0.3, n = 40. p = 0.53).

Some measure of a response to the dry season conditions first developing in the Philippines and then in Indonesia might be seen in the instigation of famine-inducing droughts in the Horn of Africa starting in the beginning of the year following the appearance of high-temperature low-rainfall dry seasons in equatorial southeast Asia. Ayalew (personal communication), indicates that. in recent years, famine events associated with droughts have occurred in Ethiopia after I yr following the warm events terminating the ENSO-blocks of 1952-1953, 1959-1963, 1970-1912, 19i5~1983, 1984-1987, 1988 -1992. With reference to the Jakarta reco rd (Fig. 6), the ENS 0 blocks endin g in 1878. 1891, 1902, 1914, 1951, 1953, 1958, 1963, 1969, t983 and 1992-1993 were apparently trending warmer than average. It is in association with these last-mentioned peaks that pronounced warm-event teleconnections might have occurred along with the geographical patterns noted earlier and the particular associated

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(Fig. 13), p = 0.00001, n = 242. ENSO years are 1 month longer than non-ENSO years throughout the time frame.

Since the T-D index is significantly correlated with the secular deviation for warmest month temperature (Jakarta/Semarang) for concurrent years, r = - 0.61. n = 110, p < 0.0001, it might be anticipated that the mean ENSO year values might also be related to the following year dry season (dry season length or mean monthly rainfall) at Wonosari. This is the case for the period 1909-1993, r = 0.41, n = 28, p = 0.029 and r = - 0.41, n = 28, p = 0.088, respectively. Both correlations are less than the equivalent relationships with the warmest month deviations from the secular trend in the Jakarta/Sernarang data set and are therefore not as useful in forming the basis of rainfall predictions from 1 yr to the next. The mean SOl index for the ENSO-year dry months (June, July, August. September and October) is not significantly correlated with either the length or the monthly rainfall of the upcoming dry season. The maximum value taken by Wright's sea surface index in non-ENSO years is loosely correlated with the mean monthly rainfall at Wonosari in subsequent years (r = - 0.26, n = 50, p = 0.06).

DISCUSSION

The most obvious time periods to seek temperature ind uced changes in biomass burning of sou theast Asia associated with global warming would undoubtedly correspond to ENSO warm-event years and particularly those in which marked positive deviations

from the overall secular trend are apparent. In recent years these are: 1991, 1987, 1983. 1982. 1972. 1963. 1958(?), 1957, 1953 and 1951. In addition to warm air temperatures these years would also be associated with ENSO associated warm pool effects resulting from through-flow of water from the Pacific to the Indian oceans. If the warm ENSO events increase in intensity and frequency in association with global warming. as perhaps exemplified by the current situation (end 1989-mid-1994), southeast Asia could face difficulties in maintaining food security.

Although the ascending cumulative temperature deviation-traces shown in Fig. 6 do not allow an exact determination to be made with respect to the occurrence of an ENSO event in the next year, all of the markedly upward-moving traces eventually delivered a long hot dry-season in east Indonesia. This sort of tendency within non-ENSO blocks can thus serve as a caution in the sense that a very hot ENSO event is likely in the offing. The background data can be used beyond this to predict actually the probable intensity of an ENSO in the upcoming year in terms of its drought potential (Figs 9 and (0), should such an event take place in reality. In this respect the correlation between the cumulative temperature deviation of the inter-ENSO blocks in relation to the temperature deviation of the first ENSO year is 0.43, n = 27, p = 0.02. This can also be translated into a projection for the dry season rainfall of the first ENSO year using the W onosari data. The resulting exponential relation is r = - 0.5. n = 17, P = 0.03 for mean monthly rainfall. The expression is y = exp(2.28 - l.3x) where y is mean monthly

ENSO variations and drought in Indonesia and The Philippines

1955

dry-season rainfall at Wonosari and x is the total cumulative inter·ENSO block temperature deviation obtained 'from the Jakarta/Sernarang data.

CONCLt.:SION

In the region of southeast Asia represented by Indonesia and the Philippines relatively secure predictions concerning likely upcoming droughts can be made in specific instances once an ENSO event "locks in" for· successive years (2-4) until the warm event set terminates. In the case of Java and within succeeding inter·ENSO years, further predictions can be made with reference to successive years in terms of the character of preceding years. This system, in conjunction with predictions generated by models could form the basis of a crop advisory service for prediction of drought or rainfall from 1 yr to the next. It is anticipated that a broad description of temperature and rainfall patterns associated with space and time with ENSO events will lead to better food security for the region as long as sudden changes do not occur.

Acknowledgements-Agencies and individuals contributing data: Meteorological data for the Philippines: Ada M. Jose, Chief, Climatology Branch. Department of Science and Technology, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Republic of the Philippines. Meteorological data from El Salvador: (in part): Lopez Vega CA, (no date) Balance hidrico superficial de la cuenca del Rio Pampe. Universidad Tecnologica Salvador. El Salvador, Centro America. Undated Document, UNESCO. Meteorological data for Indonesia: courtesy Badan Meterologi dan Geofisika, Jakarta. Indonesia and Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture. Oceanographic data from Indonesia: P30- LIP I. Indonesian Institute of Sciences. Wasser H. 1., Associate Expert in Hydrology, UNESCOj ROSTSEA assisted in gathering and interpreting data from both Indonesia and El Salvador. Neville Nicholls provided the SOl data and Michael D, Moore provided Wright's sea-surface indices.

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Ayalew M. (1993) Personal communication. 27 October 1993, Food Security Project. Relief and Rehabilitation Commission. Addis Ababa. Ethiopia.

Boerema 1. (1940) Royal M aqnetical and .\-I eteoroloqical Obsercatorv ar Batavia, Observations made at secondary stations in rhe Netherlands Indies, Climatological Tables. Results of observations of air pressure. air temperature, relative humidity. rainfall and wind velocity. XIX A.

Boden T. A .• Sepanski R. J. and Stoss F. W. (eds) (1992) Trends '91, A compendium of data on global change. Highlights. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Oak Ridge. Tennessee 37831-6335. Publication #- ORNLCDIAC--+9 ESD publication # 3797.

Brookfield H. and Allen B. (1991) Environmental and human responses to climatic variability in the west Pacific Maritime Continent Region. Proc. Souih Pacific Environments, Interactions wich Weazher and Climate. C ni v, of Auckland, Auckland. New Zealand, 2-7 September 1991, ISSN~0114-590 Env, Sc. ace. Pub., 6.

Glynn P. W. (1988) El Nino-southern oscillation 1982-1983: nearshore population, community, and ecosystem responses. Ann. Rev. Ecol. SYSI. 19,309-19.345.

Kenchington R. (1993) Personal communication. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, P,O. Box 1379, Townsville, Queensland 4810, Australia.

Kerr R. A. (1992) A successful forecast of an El Nino winter.

Science 155, 402.

Kiladis G. N. and Diaz H. F. (1986) An analysis of the 1877-78 ENSO Episode and comparison with 1982-83. Mon. Weach. Rev. 114. 1035-1047.

Kiladis G. N. and Diaz H. F. (1989) Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the southern oscillation. J. Clim. 2. 1069-1090,

Kousky V. E. (ed.) (1993) C1im. diag, bull. U,S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA. National Weather Service. National Meteorological Center, World Weather Building, 5200 Auth Rd .. Washington. DC.

Moore M. D. (1993) Personal communication. Catastrophic El Ninos and Indonesian Droughts. a 500 year history from reef corals. Field season in eastern Indonesia JulyOctober. Reef Research Group, Museum of Paleontology, UC Berkeley, California.

Mullan A. B. (1991) Atmospheric circulation processes and features in the south-west Pacific. Proc. South Pacific Environments, Interactions wim Weather and Climate Univ. of Auckland, Auckland" New Zealand ':-7 September 1991. ISSN-Oll .. -590 Env. Sc. Occ. Pub .. 6.

Nicholls N. (1987) The El Nino/Southern oscillation phenomenon. In Impact Climare Crisis, The Societal Impacts Associated with the 1982-83 Worldwide Climate Anomalies (edited by Glantz M .. Katz R. and Krenz ~l.l. ISBN #92-807-1169-5. United Nations Publication Room DC2-0853, New York.

Nunez R. H .• O'Brien 1. 1. and Shriver J. F. (1992) The effect of ENSO on rainfall in Chile (1964-1990). TOGA Sores 4-7.

Simpson J. J. (1992) Response of the southern California current system to the mid-latitude north Pacific coastal warming events of 1982-1983 and 19~19ol1. Fish. Ocean. 1. 1.

Wasser H. 1. (1993) Personal communication. UNESCO, P.O. Box 873372. Panama 7, Republic of Panama and UNESCO Oficina Regional de Ciencia y Tecnoiogia para merica Latina y el Caribe ORCYT Casilla 850. 11000 Montevideo. Uruguay.

Wright P. B. (1989) Homogenized long-period southern oscillation indices. InC. J. Clim. 9, 33-54.

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