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Development

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fortunes of the developing world over
the last two decades. Which countries
have had the most rapid growth? How
does the rise of the Asian giants affect
CUSTOMERS IN NORTH AMERICA the rest of the developing world? And
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HOW HAVE THE FORTUNES OF THE DEVELOPING WORLD
CHANGED IN THE LAST TWO DECADES?
For most developing economies, the 1990s were another
disappointing decade for economic growth, beset by financial
crises and instability. In the 2000s, much of the developing world
enjoyed the first decade of strong growth in years. The number
of developing countries beginning to converge with the affluent
countries leapt from 12 to 65, and the total number of poor
countries more than halved, dropping from 55 to 25. Thanks to
this growth, the developing world will account for 57% of world
GDP in 2030, compared to just 38% in 1990. The rapid growth of
China and India, in particular, accounts for much of this increase.
1990s
2000s
Poor Struggling Converging Affluent
Source: OECD Development Centre
Did you know?
Growth in the developing world has outpaced that in affluent
economies for more than a decade.
HAS POVERTY IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD BEEN
REDUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS GROWTH?
In the last two decades, the number of people living on less
than a dollar-a-day has fallen by nearly 500 million. About 90%
of this poverty reduction took place in China: in 1990, 60%
of China’s population was poor; by 2005 this figure was just
16%. Excluding China, the picture is mixed, and the Millennium
Development Goal of halving poverty by 2015 is still some way
off. Also worryingly, inequality within rapidly growing developing
economies has been increasing, which could undermine both
poverty reduction and growth over the long-run.
DID YOU KNOW?
China once accounted for over one-third of global poverty;
now it accounts for less than one-sixth.
HOW DOES THE RISE OF THE ASIAN GIANTS AFFECT THE
REST OF THE DEVELOPING WORLD?
Thanks to their rapid growth and sheer size, India and China
are now economic heavyweights in the global economy. They
therefore influence key macroeconomic variables that matter for
poor countries: interest rates, the price of raw materials, and
wage levels for low-skill jobs. Poor countries are more vulnerable
to these macro fluctuations; negative impacts, in particular, are
felt more.
The economic growth of the Asian giants and other large deve-
loping countries also affects smaller developing countries through
the direct flows of trade, aid and investment. These South-South
linkages are increasing and intensifying. For example, between
1990 and 2008 world trade expanded almost four-fold, but
South-South trade multiplied more than twenty times.
Did you know?
Non-OECD countries give over 100 times more aid to developing
countries than they did in 1990.
WHAT CAN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DO TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE CHANGES?
Poor and "struggling" countries will need national development
strategies which are adapted to the new economic landscape.
Developing countries should capitalise on the potential of South-
South trade, aid and foreign direct investment. For example,
simulations by the OECD suggest that boosting South-South
trade by reducing tariffs between southern countries to levels
prevailing in North-North trade would net USD 59 billion for the
developing world. This gain is worth almost double that which
is achievable by a similar reduction in tariffs in North-South
trade. In foreign direct investment, government investment in
national innovation systems would help capture the development
benefits of FDI by helping to transfer technology and knowledge
to domestic firms.
Did you know?
In 2009, China became the leading trade partner of Brazil,
South Africa and India, and is set to surpass Germany as the
world’s largest trading nation in 2010.
Potential Gains From South-South Trade Liberalisation
Billion Primary Sector Manufacturing Sector
60
52.9 Billion
50
40
30 27.7 Billion
20
10
5.8 Billion 6.5 Billion
0
North-South tariffs reduced South-South tariffs reduced
Source: OECD Development Centre