DEMAND FORECASTING

Why Forecast?

• Many decisions have to be made in advance of events.

• Forecasting is important for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain.

• Forecasts of product demand are an important input to scheduling, acquiring resources, and determining resource requirements such as materials, labor, financing.

Forecasting Methods

• Qualitative methods are subjective in nature since they rely on human judgment and opinion.

• Quantitative methods use mathematical models based on historical demand or. relationships between variables.

Forecasting

Forecasting is the art and science of predicting future events

Some Issues In Forecasting

Forecasts are not always correct. lots of examples of poor forecasts and consequent problems/losses.

IBM. Dell. Toyota. Infosys. Indo Rama. Nike Shoes.

Every forecast should include an estimate of the forecast error. The greater the degree of aggregation eg for families or groups of products the more accurate the forecast as compared to item forecasts.

long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts.

The higher the rate of technological change in a given industry. the more difficult the forecast.

The fewer the barriers to entry the more inaccurate the forecasts. The more elastic the demand the more inaccurate the forecasts.

Forecasting Methods

Qualitative (Subjective)

- Sales force method

- Delphi method

- Market experiment

- Customer surveys

- Executive opinion

Quantitative (Objective)

- Causal models Y = f(X1' X2, .... , Xn) - Time series models Y,= f(Y'_1' Yt-2,·:·, Yt-n) moving averages exponential smoothing trend method

- Input-output method

1

Some Qualitative Methods

li' Jury of Executive Opinion (opinions of a small group of high-level managers is pooled).

~ Sales Force Composite (aggregation of salespersons estimate of sales in their territory).

~ Consumer Survey Method (solicit input from customers or potential customers regarding future purchasing plans).

li' De/phi Method (a forecasting group uses a staff to prepare, distnbute, collect, and summarize a series of questionnaires and survey results from geographically dispersed respondents, whose judgements are valued). Experts are unknown to each other.

Time Series Models

• Prediction based exclusively on previously observed values.

• General Idea: Detect patterns.

• Short term demand prediction.

• Assumptions of Time Series Models - There is information about the past;

- This information can be quantified in the form of data;

- The pattern of the past will continue into the future.

Time Series: Smoothing Techniques

• Moving averages

• Exponential smoothing

Causal Models

• Use data other than the Series predicted

• Principal tool: Regression analysis - Y = aD + a1X1 + a2X2 + .. ,. anXn

- Estimates aj to minimise "sum of

squares of errors between actual Y and estimated Y".

Time Series Patterns

• Random

No pattern - Moving average; Exponential smoothing methods

• Trend

Linear or nonlinear - Regression method

• Seasonality

Repetition at fixed intervals - Ratio to trend method.

Cyclic

Long term economy - Leading indicator method

Moving Averages

N

Ft = 1 L A-n = 8t-1 + 8t-2 + ... + 8t-N

N n=1 N

where Ai: actual observed demand in period i. N : moving average period selected .

• Useful when time series show a lot of random variation Simple average of last N periods

• No pattern

• Large N : greater is the smoothing effect since each observation receives less weight.

The N past observations are equally weighted

• Observations older than N are not included at all

2

Moving Averages

How To Choose Moving Av. Period N?

• That N should be chosen which gives the smallest root mean squared error.

RMSE = j L ffi! ~ F!i where n is the number of forecasts.

Exponential Smoothing

F, = a.A,.! + (l-a).F,.!

= F,.! + a.(A,.! - F,.!) = F,., + c.e.:

where e,.! = A,., - F,.1 is the last error

• New forecast = weighted average of last demand and last forecast.

• a is the smoothing parameter (O<a<l)

• The greater the value.of a, th~ g~eater.is the weight given to the value of lime senes In penod (t-l) as opposed to previous periods.

• Useful when time series show a great deal of irregular or random variation.

Exponential Smoothing: Concept

Includes all past observations

• Weight recent observations much more heavily than very old observations:

O<a<i

weight

Decreasing weight given to older observations

--a

a(l-a) H-t-- a(1-a)2

Io-+-t-+-- a(l-ai

today

Moving Average Example

Saturday Occupancy at a 100-room Hotel

Three-period Moving
Saturday Period Occupancy Average Forecast
Aug. 1 1 79
8 2 84
15 3 83
22 4 81 82
29 5 98 83
Sept. 5 6 100 87
12 7 93 'i

Exponential Smoothing

• Forecasts are modified according to observed errors. If Ft < At ,then Ft+l is set higher than Ft and vice versa.

Given an initial forecast Fl and smoothing parameter a, this method can be used.

• That value of a is chosen, that which gives the smallest RMSE.

Exponential Smoothing: Maths

F, = aA,.! + (l-a)[ aA,.2 + (1-a)F,.2]

F, = aA,.! + a(1-a)A,.2 + (1-aFF'.2

F, = aA,.! + a(1-a)A,.2 + (l-aF[ aA,.3 + (1-a)F,.3]

F, = aA,.! + a(1-a)A'.2 + a(1-a)2A,.3 + a(1-a)3A,.4 + .

3

Exponential Smoothing Hotel Example

Saturday Hotel Occupancy (a = 0.5)

Actual Forecast
Period Occupancy Value(lnitial) Forecast
Saturday t A, F, F,
Aug. 1 1 79 7900
8 2 84 79
15 3 83 8150
22 4 81 82.25
29 5 98 81.63
Sept. 5 6 100 89.81 1-0 Economics - General Equilibrium Analysis

• When we examine the economic behaviour of individual units in an economic system we assume that each economic agent maximises something and thus attains equilibrium position.

The assumption of ceteris paribus is used whenever it is required to isolate the market under study from the rest of the economy. This approach of study of individual markets or individual units of the economy is called partial equilibrium analysis.

• In reality, an economic system is an integrated mechanism in which various elements are interlinked together.

1-0 Economics - General Equilibrium Analysis

• The GEA helps us study all such impacts together. GEA examines the inter-relationships that exist among all the decision making units and studies their behaviour simultaneously with the objective of working out the equilibrium position of the entire economic system.

• To analyse certain economic problems like structural analysis of the economy, economic development & growth, sectoral interdependency in the economy, movement of general price indices, forecasting of macroeconomic variables etc., the GEA is quite relevant.

ROL.E OF INPUT·OUTPUT ECONOMICS IN INDUSTRY FORECASTING

1-0 Economics - General Equilibrium Analysis

• The consumers, producers, the commodity and factor markets, traders, creditors and economic administration of the govt. etc. have significant interdependence with each other in the system.

• If there is a change anywhere in the system it will have impacts on the other components of the system in varying degrees.

• For example an increase in money wage rate in one industry will have an effect across the economy.

The General Equilibrium Analysis: 1-0

Approach

In 1758, a French economist, Francois Quesnay published a "Tableau Economique" which was a diagrammatic representation of how expenditures can be traced through an ,economy in a systematic way. '.'

• Another Frenchman, Leon Walras (1874) utilised a set of production coefficients that related the quantities of factors required to produce a unit of a particular product to levels of total production of that product.

Leontiefs 1-0 model is an approximation of the Walrasian model with several important simplifications that allow a theory of GEA to be applied. He presented the theoretical framework & US 1-0 tables for 1919 and 1929 in 1936. Later table for 1939 also.

4

FUNDAMENTALS OF MATRIX OPERATIONS

• Order Of A Matrix

[ 2 3 1)

A = 1 4 G 2X3

[2 1]

B-3 4

1 G 3X2

A is a (2X3) order matrix having 2 rows and 3 columns B is a (3X2) order matrix having 3 rows and 2 columns

FUNDAMENTALS OF MATRIX OPERATIONS

• Matrix. Multiplication

For matrix A to be conformable for multiplication with matrix B, if the order of [Alm,n' then it is necessary that matrix B has order [Bln,p' The resultant matrix C = AB is of the order [Clm.p' Also AB P BA. If

and B,x, = (: n then

A-(347J

'x, - 5 6 1

AB = C X2 = ((3X2)+(4X3)+(7XG)

a (5X2)+(GX3)+(1 XG)

(3Xl)+(4X5)+(7X2)] (5Xl )+(GX5)+(1 X2)

rso 37J

i.e C,x, = L34 37

FUNDAMENTALS OF MATRIX OPERATIONS

• Determinant Of A Matrix

If A =

[::: ::: :::J, then determinant of A, i.e

a~1 a32 a~3

I A 1= al1(a22·a33 - a23·ad - ada21·a33 - a23·a31) + a'3(a2,·a32 - a22·a31)

i.e I A I = all(cofactor of all) - a12(cofactor of ad + a13(cofactor of a13).

FUNDAMENTALS OF MATRIX OPERATIONS

• Addition Of 2 Matrices

To add two matrices, their order must be the same. Each corresponding elements of the two matrices are added. Given -

A= (: : J B= [: : J ' then

A + B = C = (: 1~ J

FUNDAMENTALS OF MATRIX OPERATIONS

• Transpose Of A Matrix

If A = (X, x, x'J Then trans.pose,o~ A r~: ~: J

X4 x, x, I.e A - l~3 x,

• Crow Matrix

If A = [X, x, X,], then crow of A, i.e A = [:,~, ::J

FUNDAMENTALS OF MATRIX OPERATIONS

• Inverse Of A Matrix

AI = (adjoint A) IAI

where (adj A) is transpose of the cofactor matrix i.e (adj A) = (cof A)'

It A = [! ; !J then IAI=1(21-4)-2(15-8)+3(5-14)

2 3 i.e I AI = 17 - 14 - 27 = -24

~~ ~ 1 ·1 ~ ~ 1 1 U]

(Col A) = ~ ~ i 112 ~! 112 ~ 1

~ ~I 'i~ ~i I~ ~I

(~: ~: -~~J

·9 ·3

[1.: ~; .:]

·13 11 ·3

(adj A) = (cot A)'

Then

[-0.71

0.29 0.375

.1. [~: ::

24 .9

.13J

11

-3

0.125 0.125 -0.175

THE INPUT ~OUTPUT APPROACH

• Developed by Wassily Leontief in the 1930s in America.

• !t deals with the quantitative analysis of the Interdependence among various producing sectors of an economy as well as the final consuming sectors. The fundamental purpose of the 1-0 framework is to analyse the interdependence of industries in an economy.

An 1-0 model consists of a system of linear equations each of which describes the distribution of an industry's product throughout the economy.

1-0 analysis is a form of General Equilibrium Analysis.

THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE

The 1-0 table of an economy shows the flow of goods and services from a sector of the economy to all the other sectors over a specified period.

It is a two way table.

The rows of the table describe the distribution of outputs of sectors to purchasing sectors and final users.

The columns describe the purchase of intermediate and primary inputs by the different sectors of the economy.

• All entries are in value terms

0.54J

-0.46

0.175

FUNDAMENTALS OF MATRIX OPERATIONS

• Identity Matrix

In an identity matrix non principal diagonal elements are zero and principal diagonal elements are unity. That is,

1=

o

o

THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE

Total lnterIndustry

Use

~

Producing
sectors
Ss
e e
I c.
I I I Xij
i 0
n r Inter-
gs Industry
Matrix·IIM
Tj Total Inter-
industry
input
IVj I Value-
Added
IXj I Total
Output
Fik
Final
Demand
Matrix I V I Value-Added I k . .

By Final Demand Categories

THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE

• The transactions in an 1-0 table can be classified into 4 different types.

1. The transactions among producing sectors comprise the major portion of the 1-0 table. These are repres~nted as delivery. of output of sector i to sector j (Xu), Since each sector IS represented once as a selling (ItS output) sector and once ~sa produclnq (by consuming Inputs) sector. this mterlndustry transactions form a square matrix.

The sum of the deliveries of the output of sector i to all producing sectors, including itself. is represented as Wi In the column vector of total intermediate use.

Similarly, !h.e sum. of all intermediate inputs purchased by sector J. Includlr:tg the purchase of its own outputs is represented as Tj In the row vector of total intermediate inputs.

Total output

6

THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE

2. The deliveries of sectoral outputs to F.D represent the second kind of transactions recorded in 1-0 tables. The categories of F.O include private consumption, govt consumption, investment, inventories, exports & imports. The sectoral deliveries to FD are shown as the output of sector i delivered to the kth category of final expenditures, denoted as Fik·

3. The third type of transactions recorded in 1-0 tables refer to the purchases of primary inputs by producing sectors. Land, labour & capital stock are commonly regarded as primary inputs.

The payments for primary factors of production corresponds to the concept of value added. These transactions in the 1-0 table are represented as Vj where j refers to the jth producing sector.

IMPORTANT IDENTITIES IMPLIED IN INPUT~OUTPUT TABLE

The total production of sector i, denoted as Xi' is defined as the sum of all deliveries of the output of sectors i to all producing sectors and final users. That is,

n m

Xi = L Xij + L Fik

j=1 k=1

(i = 1,2, ... ,n)

• Since the total sectoral production is equal to the total cost of production in each sector, in the 1-0 table, the row sum is equal to the column sum for a given industry. Thus,

n m

L Xij + L Fik

j=1 k=1

n

LXij + Vj i=1

(i = 1,2, ,n)

0= 1,2, ,n)

THE INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL

Technical Coefficient Matrix

From the inter-industry matrix, it can be derived. The technical coefficients describe the amount of each input required in the production of a given unit of output. For example,

X" all e •. --~.--

x,

Assuming that there are n sectors in an economy, the equations describing the total output of each industry can be represented as:

X, = X11 + X12 + ."X'n + F, X, = X" + X22 + ... X", + F,

THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE

4. The final type of transactions shown in 1-0 tables is the payment for primary inputs by final demand categories. These are recorded as Vk.

The elements in this matrix represent payments by final consumers for labour services (for example household payments for say, domestic help); govt payments to govt workers and also include other VA entries, for example, interest payments by households, etc.

The inclusion of this matrix in the 1-0 table is necessary for the total of an 1-0 table to be consistent with national income and product aggregates.

IMPORTANT IDENTITIES IMPLIED IN INPUT ~OUTPUT TABLE

• The sum of all intermediate deliveries plus the sum of all deliveries to final demand must be equal to the sum of all intermediate deliveries plus the value added.

nn nm nn n

L L Xij + L L Fik L L Xij + L Vj

i=1 j=1 i=1 k=1 j=1 i=1 j=1

• It follows from above equation that the sum of value added is equal to sum of all deliveries to final users. That is,

n n m

L Vj L L Fik = GOP at market price

j=1 i=1 k=1

THE INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL

• If we substitute aijXj for the corresponding Xij terms then the above equation can be written as:

X1 :;: a11X1 + a12X2 + + a1nXn + F1

X2:;: a21X1 + a22X2 + + a2nXn + F2

7

THE INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL

• This set of equations can be written in matrix notation as:

X=AX+F

Where X = nx1 vector of gross output A = nxn matrix of technical coefficients

F = nx1 vector of final demand

• That is, X = (I - A)-1F

• This basic equation is used to compute and forecast sectoral output levels

The Leontief Inverse Matrix - Round By Round Effect

• Then X = (I - A)-IF can be written as :

X = (I + A+N+ A3 + __ )F; i.e.

X = F + AF + NF + NF + .

G' A ~.15 0.25J [ 600 J
Iven = & F - . we have
0.20 0.05 - 1500 '
AF· [ 465 J A'F = ~18.50J A'F = (43.44 J A4F = (13.83 J
195 102.75 28.80 10.20 A'F = ( :::: J A'F = (:::: J A'F = ( :::: J

i.e the Individual terms in the power series simply represent the magnitude of round by round effects.

The Leontief Inverse Matrix - Round By Round Effect

• Elements of (I - A)-' = [Rij I are very useful and important numbers.

Each Rij lith row. jth column element of (I - A)" I shows the direct and indirect stimulus to the ith gross output when the jth FD only changes by one unit.

• Each Rij element captures in a single number an entire series of direct and indirect effects.

The Leontief Inverse Matrix - Round By Round Effect

By definition we know that A matrix (coefficient matrix) is a non negative matrix implying aij ~ 0 for all i & j (i.e A ~ 0).

Also, given the reasonable assumption that each sector uses some inputs from the VA sector (labour etc.), then each column sum of Interind. matrix will be less than 1.

n

i.e Laij < 1 for all j. i=1

• Given these two characteristics, we can write

(1- A)·I = (I + A + N + N + ......... ); given A < 1

The Leontief Inverse Matrix - Round By Round Effect

For Sector 1, the sum of these round by round effects (= Rs647.53), plus the original demand of RS.600 is Rs1247.53.

For sector 2, this total is Rs341.57 + 1500 = Rs.1 841.57 These total outputs are the same as those found by using the Leontief inverse -

Given A = [0.15 0.251, we get (1- A)" as = [1.2541 0 .. 3300 J

0.20 0.05) 0.2640 1.1221

Then X = (1- A)-'F is equal to-

x = 0·2541 0.3300J ( 600 J = (1247.46 J

lO.2640 1.1221 1500 1841.55

That is, to satisfy 600 Rs demand of sector 1 and Rs 1500 FD of sector 2, sector 1 needs to produce Rs 1247.46 of total output while sector 2 needs to produce Rs 1841.55 worth of output (which includes FD use + interindustry use).

Causal Methods: Regression Analysts

The application of statistical techniques to study relationships in economic data is called econometrics

What is econometrics useful for? Describe economic reality

- Use econometric techniques to quantify economic relationships

Hypothesis testing

- Empirically evaluate theoretical models (hypotheses) on the relationships between variables (e.g., higher advertising expenditure implies higher sales)

Forecast the future based on the past

8

Examples of Using Regression

Can the square footage of a house, the number of bedrooms, and the average neighborhood income be used to predict the price for which a house is sold?

Can an athlete's performance be predicted by age, height, weight and body mass index?

Can the average operating hours, the average miles driven, and the mean daily temperature be used to predict the demand for repair parts for a farm tractor?

REGRESSION

A statistical technique used to discover the apparent dependence of one variable upon one or more other variables

Six Steps are involved:

1. Identification of causal variables.

2. Collection of data on the variable under forecasting and on its determinants.

3. Selection of appropriate functional form for the function.

4. Estimation of the function.

5. Derivation of forecasts for the independent (causal) variables in the function.

6. Derivation of forecast for the dependent variable.

REGRESSION (Contd.)

The error term accounts for-

• Effects of omitted determinants of dependent variable Y

• Error in measurement of variables Misspecification error if any.

The optimisation problem is to:

A

• Minimise 2: (YI - YI )2 with respect to a and b I

Independent (predictor, X) variables Dependent (predicted, Y) variable

... _-_._- ... _------ ---------~

Can the square footage of a house, the number of bedrooms, and the average neighborhood income be used to predict the price for which a house is sold?

Can~, height, weight and body mass index predict an athlete's performance?

Can the average operating hours, the average miles driven, and the mean daily temperature be used to predict the demand for repair parts for a farm tractor?

REGRESSION

OLS method is used for estimating parameters of the regression equation.

A typical regression equation for estimation V,=a +blC, + e,

Its estimated version is:

VI = a + bXt I where

A denoted estimated values n is sample size

at is error term

VI is dependent variable lC, is explanatory variable

a & b are parameters to be estimated

FUNCTIONAL FORMS

• Linear Form:

Y = a + bX

• Exponential Form:

Y = aebX

• Double Log Form:

Y= aXb

• Quadratic Form:

Y= aX2 + bX+ c

9

Some Functions

Rs

• Linear TR

• Quadratic Te

• Quadratic Profit

The Simple Linear Regression Model

In the above model, we hypothesize that the relationship between these two variables is linear

• Is ADVT the only factor that determines the true (theoretical) value of SALES?

- Omitted explanatory variables

- Measurement errors

- Incorrect functional form

To capture the impact of all these factors, we add a stochastic error term in the model

SALES = a + b (ADVT) + e

The Estimated Model and Residuals

For example, using a sample of Y (SALES) and X (ADVT), suppose the estimated equation is

Y = 140.6+ 251.8* X

Y;-hat is the estimated or fitted value of Y from the estimated model for the ith observation

The closer is the estimated value of Y to the actual (observed) value, the better is the fit of our estimated regression model

The Simple Linear Regression Model (LRM)

Suppose we hypothesize that higher advertising expenses imply higher sales for any finm

The above statement implies a relationship

SALES = f (ADVT)

Suppose that the above relationship can be represented with a simple linear model

SALES = a + b (ADVT)

The Simple Linear Regression Model • Using more general notation, we can write Y=a+bX+e

• The above equation has two components - Deterministic: a + bX

- Stochastic or random: e

• The deterministic component shows the value of Y that is

determined by a given value of X in the regression model

• Y is the dependent variable

• X is the independent variable

• a and b are two constants to be estimated

The Estimated Model and Residuals

• The difference between the estimated value of Y and the actual value of Y is the residual

e=Y-Y

• Note: the stochastic error term shows the difference between the actual (observed) value of Y and the true (theoretical) regression model

1(

True and Estimated Regression Model

y

Y, = a+bX,

x

Slope

• b

• The inclination of a regression line as compared to a base line

• Change in Y with respect to a very small change in X

160 Vi 150 r 140

Least-Squares Regression Line

130

o 0 0 4-_______ Actual Y

Actual Y 0

120

110

Y"haf'

y "har 0

100

o 0

90

80

70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 X

Y intercept

• a

• An intercepted segment of a line

• The point at which a regression line intercepts the Y-axis

Regression Line and Slope

130

120

110

100

90

80

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 x

The Least-Square Method

• Uses the criterion of attempting to make the least amount of total error in prediction of Y from X. More technically, the procedure used in the least-squares method generates a straight line that minimizes the sum of squared deviations of the actual values from this predicted regression line.

11

1

I,

The Least-Square Method

• A relatively simple mathematical technique that ensures that the straight line will most closely represent the relationship between X and Y.

OLS Method

~

ei = Y;. Y; (The "residual")

Y, = actual value of the dependent variable

Y; = estimated value of the dependent variable (Y hat) n = number of observations

= number of the observation

The Overall Fit of the Estimated Model

How can we tell if our estimated model fits the sample data well or not?

We can examine the proportion of variation in the dependent variable (Y) that is explained by the estimated regression model

Examining the estimated model's overall fit is useful because

- We can evaluate the quality Of the regression

- We can compare models with different data samples, different specification forms or different combinations of variables

Regression - Least-Square Method

. .

IS mmimum

The Logic behind the LeastSquares Technique

• No straight line can completely represent every dot in the scatter diagram.

• There will be a discrepancy between most of the actual scores (each dot) and the predicted score.

Uses the criterion of attempting to make fhe least amount of total error in prediction of Y from X.

The Overall Fit of the Estimated Model

• The coefficient of determination or R2 is a measure of how well the estimated OLS regression line fits the data

R2 = explained variation / total variation

• Implication: The higher the R2 the better the estimated model fits the data.

12

The Overall Fit of the Estimated Model

• One reason for a low R-sq may be that our model has left out significant explanatory variables

- For example, even though ADVT may explain SALES, the model may leave a considerable portion of SALES variation unexplained

Statistical Significance

• As a rule of thumb, an estimated coefficient is statistically significant if t <!2, e.g.

. • 4' b 0.00025 6

t statisnc lor = = 3.

0.00007

• Then, b is statistically significant (or statistically different from zero)

• Alternatively, look for (small) P-values

Multiple Regression

The coefficients of the independent variables in the multivariate Model are called partial regression coefficients

Interpretation of coefficient b: indicates the change in the dependent variable from a one-unit change in the independent variable holding al/ other independent variables constant

Example: Suppose we estimate the following model for SALES

SALES = 50.8 + 0.65 ADVT + 0.8 COMPT PRICE

The estimated coefficient of ADVT tells us that SALES will increase by 65 paise for every rupee increase in ADVT given the COMPT PRICE.

Statistical Significance

• Is X really important in affecting Y?

• One way to measure this for each estimated coefficient is the t-statistic

t t ti ti Absolute value of regression coefficient s a IS IC = -::---:---:----_;::_--___:.:...:_:..;_:_=

Standard error of regression coefficien t

Multiple Regression

In our example of the simple model of SALES, is it reasonable to assume that ADVT is the only explanatory variable?

- Unit Price

- Competitor Price

In general, the multivariate linear regression model can be represented as

Multiple Regression

• The OLS estimation approach can be applied in a similar way to the multivariate Model as in the case of the simple LRM

• The R-sq is again used as a measure of the goodness of fit of the multivariate Model

13

Example of Multiple Regression

Dependent Variable: SALES

Explanatory Variables Coefficient t-stat
Constant 50.8 5.9
ADVT 65 7.5
PRICE -80 -2.3
COMPT PRICE 23 15
R' 048 14