RS 44 Pakistan’s defence policy in a tough neighbourhood.

Introduction

Pakistan has completely volunteer forces The Pakistan Army has active service
manpower of 550,000 reserves together with the air force and navy ranks as the 7th
largest military force in the world. The army has implemented a plan to reduce the size
of the army by 50,000.

There are reserve forces of an additional 513,000 and additional paramilitary forces such
as the National Guard (185,000), Pakistan Rangers (35,000) and Frontier Corps
(35,000). The Army was created at partition in 1947 and is organised along on British
regimental lines. Its strength and structure (2006) is more fully described in UK Defence
Forum paper FS 60.

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF is 45,000 strong, and its primary combat aircraft are
Mirages and F-16s (some of the latter being nuclear-capable).

The Pakistan Navy is small but undergoing expansion of its above and sub surface
fleets, with follow on vessels being built in Pakistan. It has a strength of around 26,000 –
of which about 1,000 are Marines, and about 2,000 Maritime Security Agency.

The annual budget for defence of 250 bn Pak Rupees ($4.17bn) for 2006-07 was
announced by the Government (Financial Times 6th June 2006). The latest Business
Monitor International predicts 'a rise to 294.22 bn Pak Rupees in 2007 from a base of
188.43 bn Pak Rupees in 2003’.

Assessment of the Army

The army is large, well trained, reasonably well equipped and has good morale. Senior
leadership is of a high quality and there is no evidence of religious extremism among
senior officers, largely due to monitoring of promotion and selection boards by

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 successive army chiefs, although it appears there may be some extremists in junior
ranks despite arrests following the last assassination attempts on the President.

Following the 1989 exercise Zarb-e-Momin (‘Believer's blow’), it was made clear to
commanders that logistics mattered, that resupply was not to be treated as ‘out of
exercise’ or ‘notional,’ and that all exercises were to have a credible logistics plan.
Analysis of Zarb-e-Momin resulted in considerable restructuring, including the creation of
Air Defence Command and Artillery Divisions. It was assessed that Command, Control,
Communication, Computers and Intelligence (C4I) had serious defects, especially in the
passage of tactical information from higher HQ to unit level, but improvement in this
aspect has been slower than desired, mainly because of financial constraints. With the
injection of US equipment, this situation is expected to improve. (In May 2006 it was
announced that the US would supply 18 new and 26 second hand F-16s over the
following 30 months. The country had paid $650 million for F-16s which were never
delivered.)

Some use is made of satellite communications, although it is accepted these are

insecure and there have been notable advances in the development and production of
secure systems, although these do not appear to be available other than in strike
formations and special and independent forces. Subsequent exercises have tested the
development matrix generated by Zarb-e-Momin, but budget limitations have precluded
conduct of trials on the scale necessary to test, prove, and modify doctrine and
procedures to the extent desired by commanders and GHQ.

Cessation of overseas training arrangements by developed countries as a result of their

disapproval of Pakistan's nuclear tests has not affected professional knowledge or
standards seriously, but officers were denied exposure to the wider horizons offered by
such nations. Western influence has been reduced to the point of creating significant
resentment, especially at junior level. Such anti-Western feelings might be manipulated
by a small number of zealots within and outside the armed forces in an attempt to attract
adherents to more rigid forms of Islam than desired by senior officers (and the West).

The US IMETS military training co-operation agreement has been resurrected, as have
Commonwealth and European programmes, and it is to be hoped that new generations
of Pakistani officers will be reintroduced to their profession in global contexts. A perhaps

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 unintended consequence of those imposing sanctions was in some measure to drive
Pakistan inwards and to rely more on Islamic partners. This did not entirely happen, but
much work has to be done to correct what damage has occurred.

It has been argued that the army's main weaknesses are poor co-operation with the
Pakistan Air Force (PAF) and inadequate appreciation that Indian tactical air power is a
serious threat. Some planning has been based on unrealistic assessment of
achievement of local air superiority over the forward edge of the battle area. There is
emphasis on ground air defence by surface-to-air missiles (such as the Swedish RBS70
and US Stinger) and gun systems. Both strike corps have considerable air defence
assets intended to be deployed rapidly during obstacle crossings and breakout, but few
are yet self-propelled which would be a disadvantage in the concept of the Riposte.

Role of the Air Force

Pakistan has officially abandoned the pre-emptive strike as doctrine, although in conflict
with India Pakistan will have to deal with an Indian advantage in combat airpower.

However, no matter how well-trained, it is unlikely the air force would be able to avoid
India swamping Pakistan’s airspace in the early phases of conflict, to achieve, for
example, the IAF aim of total local air superiority during an advance over major man-
made and natural obstacles along the border.

Although the Shaheen II 2,500 Km range ballistic missile was successfully tested in May
2006, and Shaheen III with a range of 3,500 Km is under development, the PAF’s F-16s
would be a prime delivery means of nuclear weapons – the country’s “credible minimum
deterence” - and tactics have been practiced accordingly. The air force would, in the first
instance, be tasked with countering India’s planned advance into Pakistani territory by
seeking to prevent the IAF from achieving local tactical air superiority together with
striking surface-to-surface missile launchers– if these can be identified. It would be
called upon to provide air cover for the strike corps in their limited advance to occupy
Indian territory, but it is doubtful that the necessary assets would be available for this. 8
(Mirage) squadron at Masroor is dedicated to maritime strike/fleet defence and would
join the land/air battle only in an extreme emergency.

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 Early in 2006 the first four women trainee pilots joined the Air Force Academy in Risalpur
near Peshwar.

The Pakistan Navy

The Navy is in an expansionary mode to counter India’s rapid naval expansion, with
negotiations being on the acquisition of four second hand frigates from Greece for
delivery in early 2007. This is partially dependant on the onward sale of former Dutch
Navy ships.

At present the principal warships of the PN are ex Royal Navy Type 21 destroyers,
supported by mine hunters, patrol craft, missile boats, fast attack boats and logistics
vessels.

In 2005 Pakistan signed a deal to buy four Chinese frigates for delivery from 2009 –
three to be built in China, one within Pakistan to complete the class by 2013.

The first of the latest class of submarines, the 2000 tonne Agosta-90B, came into service
in 1999 following construction in France. The second and third were built in Pakistan.
They are cruise missile equipped, and have been retrofitted with air-independent
propulsion.

Strategic defence policy

Pakistan’s defence policy is one of offensive defence in that its armed forces will
endeavour to anticipate and act against any perceived attack by seizing and holding
tactically important ground.

Operational art and tactical doctrine

From the time of the 1965 war, through that of 1971 and until the Indian Army's exercise
Brass Tacks in 1987, emphasis was on static defence of the line of control (LOC) and
the border. Penetration of Indian territory would be undertaken only on an opportunity

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 basis. The doctrine was flawed, mainly because of the lack of strategic depth in
Pakistan, but no alternative was given serious consideration until it was realised that a
‘stand and fight’ doctrine would probably result in deep penetration by Indian forces
without Pakistani forces being able to manoeuvre effectively. The Indian Army would
have gained and retained the initiative, enabling it to destroy Pakistani formations
piecemeal as they reacted to Indian thrusts.

The ‘Riposte’ is simple in concept: it is intended that the two strike corps conduct a
limited advance along narrow fronts with the objective of occupying Indian territory near
the border, probably to a depth of 40 to 50 km. Pakistan considers that international
pressure would result in a ceasefire after a maximum of three weeks of conflict, enough
time to gain some territory to be used in subsequent bargaining. There would be
acceptance of Indian penetration, which would be inevitable given the comparative lack
of mobility within the infantry-heavy divisions. Independent armoured and mechanised
brigades are intended for quick counter-attack and exploitation and would add
considerable weight to advances by the strike corps.

The ‘Riposte’ is practised at all levels. Major exercises involve the crossing of water
obstacles and minefields at night with emphasis on subsequent breakout and rapid
advance. So far as has been seen, the concept has been adequately translated into
workable plans which are continuously being refined. However, complete mechanisation
of the strike corps and other formations was slowed by the effects of US sanctions and it
will take some time for them to achieve desired mobility, although US army surplus
equipment is now being delivered, and local manufacture and rebuilding of US-supplied
AFV/APC has received considerable impetus, thus improving the mechanisation
process.

The army took great interest in the Indian army/air force exercise Vajra Shakti (‘Thunder
Power’, conducted in Punjab from 1-10 May 2005), in view of its emphasis on
maintaining mobility while operating closed-down against nuclear attack. Pakistan’s own
counter-nuclear preparedness is patchy, and it is doubtful that even the strike corps
could fight through a nuclear battlefield.

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 The traditional threat has been India and the Kashmir dispute has been an important
item on the agenda. New confidence building measures resulting from high level
dialogue have helped reduce the threat of direct hostilities between India and Pakistan,
but the threat remains that local engagements could escalate into nuclear war. However
talks are in progress and on the Sichian Glacier and other issues and since the major
earthquake firing across the line of control has ceased and relief supplies and free
passage of relatives has been allowed which is a positive development from a terrible
tragedy. There is perhaps more reason to be optimistic about a settlement on Kashmir
but it is a slow process.

The recent nuclear agreement between the United States and India was deemed to be a
dangerous regional escalation by the National Security Council (NSC) of Pakistan
because it felt it will leave India with excess fissile material with which to make more
nuclear devices. NSC sanctioned further purchases of 36 PRC F-10s and 44 F-16s are
taking place and the Chinese fighter the JF-17 (Thunder) multi-role –aircraft will be
manufactured in Kamara, Pakistan in 2007. The first operational flight is due to take
place of a China-built JF-17 in mid 2006.

Two major factors affect defence policy in Pakistan. One is geographical, in that Lahore,
and Islamabad the seat of government, are very close to India. Islamabad is 1000 miles
from the commercial capital Karachi. Pakistan is a long thin country which is difficult to
defend and vulnerable to a possible split by an attack by Indian forces dividing the North
and South of the country perhaps via Rajasthan.

Secondly the ethnic diversity of the provinces which make it such an exciting place to
visit also expose Pakistan to internal vulnerability due to regional tensions over
resources (especially water). Balochistan, North West Frontie Province, Sindh and
Punjab have significant differences in their make up but this is true of most regions on
the subcontinent.

The Pakistan Army is the single largest contributor to UN peace peacekeeping missions
worldwide and has worked alongside Indian and Bangladeshi troops for example in the
Congo. As of April 2006 it had over 9,000 troops on a mission (see Table3, section 2.2
FS 60) No Pakistan Air Force units are deployed on such missions.

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 The Pakistan Navy assumed command of the Coalition Maritime Task Force TF 150,
responsible for prevention of terrorist movements in the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea and
Red Sea, in May 2006 (following on from Dutch, Germans, French and British
command). Task Force 150 is the maritime component from 12-15 nations of the US led
maritime interdiction operations being conducted in support of Operation Enduring
Freedom and comprises warships and other naval assets of 12-15 allied nations
grouped together. The Pakistan Navy’s cooperation with the US in the North Arabian
Sea contributes towards the common goal of fighting against terrorists and bringing
stability to the region.

Pakistan Navy ships were the first on station, and rescued 367 Western tourists from
islands of Maldives following the Tsunami in December 2004. Rear Admiral M. Asif
Sandila and Captain Muhammad Amjad of Pakistan Navy were decorated with the
French Order of Merit with the grade of Knight for their meritorious services for saving
the lives of 19 nationalities including 30 French citizens.

Later two PN ships with organic helicopters provided medical supplies, mobile hospital
and engineering support to Indonesia.

The Army took a key role following the devastating earthquake in October 2005 , which
struck remote parts of Pakistan administered Kashmir and North West Frontier Province
(NWFP). The army rapidly responded, despite losing many of its own soldiers among
the 73,000 people who perished saved thousands more lives and though criticised by
some politicians, made a sustained effort throughout the winter to get supplies to remote
areas and evacuate those at risk to camps at lower altitude. Pakistan’s own air assets
were supplemented by helicopters around the world including NATO.

The neighbourhood

The mountainous terrain in this region makes it one of the most difficult to police in the
world. The Afghan and Pakistani tribes in the NWFP, many of whom are tied by blood,
are proud, war like and well armed. Their warrior tradition stretches back centuries, as

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 many invading or colonial powers have cause to remember including the British in three
Afghan wars and uncounted actions against the tribes.

Taliban and al-Qaeda activity have caused Pakistan with US encouragement to deploy
thousands of regular army troops and a similar number of para military Frontier Corps
soldiers in the Federally Administered tribal areas, mainly in Waziristan. Considerable
resentment has been created in the tribal areas and in Pakistan as a whole by US
strikes from Afghanistan that have killed tribals, including women and children.

Balochistan has also seeing a marked increase in terrorist attacks by the Baloch
Liberation Army but this is more to do with Balochistan being a gas rich area, causing
feudal tribal leaders to demand more generous subsidies from the central government.

In addition there is the border with Iran and the importance of maintaining good relations
with a powerful neighbour, with close local ties with Balochistan and Afghanistan
(particularly Herat). It is unfortunate that Iran’s relations with the US and Europe over
the nuclear issue are so bad. Pakistan’s position as an ally of Americans in the war
against terrorism puts it right in the front line. Indeed a question has been asked
recently in the House of Commons about re-supply of British forces in Afghanistan via
Pakistan.

The Army and politics

On several occasions since independence the Army has intervened to take over the
political reins in Pakistan. In the case of the defeat of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan
the West had reason to be grateful to Pakistan for the role it played. It then abandoned
the region leaving Pakistan to care for millions of Afghan refugees (there are still 3 to 4
million living in Pakistan).

The army, as in other countries like Turkey and Algeria, has often felt obliged to step in,
though this intervention is always strongly contested by the political class. The most
recent intervention was in October 1999.

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 As General Musharraf’s plane , which was a civilian flight, finally landed at Karachi
Airport on its return from Sri Lanka despite the refusal of the authorities to allow it to do
so, with the fuel tank nearly empty and the economy of the country almost at the point of
default with the IMF, also running on empty, his supporters argue that he had no option
but to act for this is indeed a tough neighbourhood.

The UK Defence Forum published two related papers in June 2006: The strength and
structure of the Pakistan Air Force 2006 (FS 59), and The strength and structure of the
Pakistan Army 2006 (FS 60). These are available on request.

Disclaimer

The views of authors are their own. The UK Defence Forum holds no corporate view on
the opinions expressed in papers or at meetings. The Forum exists to enable politicians,
industrialists, members of the armed forces, academics and others with an interest in
defence and security issues to exchange information and views on the future needs of
Britain’s defence. It is operated by a non-partisan, not for profit company.

UK Defence Forum papers are archived at www.ukdf.org.uk - the last three years being
accessible only to members and subscribers. Prior to that they are in the public domain
subject to usual conventions.

May 2006

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