2009 Top 10 Small Business Trends

2009 Top 10 Small Business Trends
May 29th, 2009
Carolyn Ockels & Steve King

Emergent Research
Emergent Research
www.emergentresearch.com
Emergent Research
• Our focus is identifying, analyzing and forecasting the
trends and forces impacting small business.
– economic trends
– social and demographic shifts
– impact of technology
– changes in industrial structure
• Reports and resources: www.emergentresearch.com
• Blog: www.smallbizlabs.com
• Twitter: @smallbizlabs
• Intuit Future of Small Business reports and resources:
www.intuit.com/futureofsmallbusiness
The Entrepreneurial Economy is Here
• Small businesses:
– Employ over half of America’s
private workforce.
– Generate over half of America’s
non-farm GDP
– Create 60-80% of America’s net
new jobs
– Extremely diverse in size, style
and goals
The Long Term Drivers of Economic
Decentralization and the Growth of Small Business
• The Growth of Market Three Eras of Transformation

Capitalism Leads to Growth of Small Business
• Deregulation
• Technology
• Globalization
• Information and Market
Efficiency
27 Million U.S. Small Businesses
Only 17,000 businesses with more than 500 employees
Average
# of Firms Revenues # of Employees
Large Small Business

90K $31M 100 - 499
Mid
630K $6.1M Market 20-99
1.8M $1.2M Main Street

5-19
24.5 M $65k
Micro & Personal 0-4
About 2/3 of Personal

Businesses are Significant
Contributors to Family
Income
Sources: Intuit Main Street Quant Survey 2006, Intuit Segmentation Survey 2008, US Census data 2008 & 2009, US BLS data 2008 & 2009, Emergent
Research estimates 2009
The Next Decade
The New Artisan Economy
• Over 40 million U.S. small business by 2017

• Roughly 32 million personal businesses
• Over 13% of Americans self employed
• The new artisans will be knowledge workers, but
many will make things
• They will be amplified by technology and highly
networked
Source: New Artisan Economy research report (www.intuit.com/futureofsmallbusiness)
• Economic Trends
– The recession drives small business innovation
– Government plays an increasing role in the economy
– Global infrastructure and stimulus spending
– The number of small businesses will increase in 2009
– Small business globalization will temporarily slow
• Demographic Trends
– Baby boomer retirement problems leads them to small business
– Gen Y turns to small business
• Technology Trends
– Mobile computing continues strong growth
– Cloud computing becomes mainstream for smallbiz
– Small business use of online marketing tools expands
Economic Trends
The Recession is Dominant Issue for Small

Business in 2009 – And Drives Innovation
• Small businesses focus on

cash flow, cost containment,
customer retention and
survival
• Re-evaluate, re-design and
refine all aspects of their
business to create opportunity
• Improvements through
incremental and business
model innovation common
Economic Trends
Government Plays an Increasing Role

in the Economy
• Economic turmoil, corporate

malfeasance and regulatory failure
lead to greater global government
economic oversight
• Long term, global trend towards
market capitalism still in place
• Small business awareness of federal,
state and local government policies
and programs required
Economic Trends
Global Infrastructure and Stimulus Spend
• Stimulus package will

create or save 1.6
million small business
jobs
• Global stimulus
spending over $1.5
trillion
• Construction, clean
tech, IT largest
spending areas
Source: The Stimulus Package: What it

Means for Growing Businesses (www.myventurepad.com)
Economic Trends
Small Business Numbers Will

Increase in 2009
• Job losses will lead to “necessity

entrepreneurs”
• Easier and cheaper to start a
small or personal business than
in prior recessions
• Small business failure rates will
increase, but net will be positive
Source: Warrillow, SBA; employer businesses only.

Economic Trends
Small Business Globalization Will

Temporarily Slow
• Recession and currency market

turmoil reduce export opportunities
• Small businesses will focus on
local markets
• Long term trend towards small
business globalization will
continue.
Demographic Trends
Baby Boomers Will Work Past Retirement Age
Small Business Formation by Age

• Want to work 1.4
1.2 27%
• Want change & work/life balance 1 More likely
to start a
0.8
• Skills, Ability, Flexibility 0.6
smallbiz
0.4
• Recession and stock market 0.2
losses mean many will have to 0
work. Avg 45-54 55-64 65+
Sources: Kauffman Foundation, US Census www.emergentresearch.com

Demographic Trends
Generation Y Will Turn to Small Business
• Digital natives with excellent Percentage of Teens
end user tech skills Who Want to Work For:

80
• Don’t trust corporations 70
60
• Values oriented 50
% 40
• Limited near term employment
30
opportunities do to recession 20
10
0
Someone
Themselves
Else
Source: Gallup Poll
Technology Trends
Mobile Computing Continues Strong Growth
• Internet access devices

• Smartphones
• Ubiquitous WiFi
• Cellular nets
• Broadband
• Search
• Cloud resources
Technology Trends
Cloud Computing Becomes Mainstream for

Small Business
• Lowers capital costs
• Turns fixed costs into variable costs
• Scalable solutions
• Many cloud issues seen as
advantages by small businesses:
– Security
– Reliability
– Control of data
Technology Trends
Small Business Expands Use of Online Marketing
• Small business online presence growing

• Growing understanding of online
marketing
• Starting to understand social media and
search engine optimization
• Clear metrics and ROI
• Lead generation in a recession
May 29th, 2009
Carolyn Ockels & Steve King

Emergent Research
Emergent Research

2009 Top 10 Small Business Trends

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2009 Top 10 Small Business Trends

May 29th, 2009

Carolyn Ockels & Steve King

• The Growth of Market Three Eras of Transformation

Large Small Business

1.8M $1.2M Main Street

About 2/3 of Personal

• Over 40 million U.S. small business by 2017

Source: New Artisan Economy research report (www.intuit.com/futureofsmallbusiness)

The Recession is Dominant Issue for Small

• Small businesses focus on

Government Plays an Increasing Role

• Economic turmoil, corporate

Global Infrastructure and Stimulus Spend

• Stimulus package will

Source: The Stimulus Package: What it

Small Business Numbers Will

• Job losses will lead to “necessity

Source: Warrillow, SBA; employer businesses only.

Small Business Globalization Will

• Recession and currency market

Baby Boomers Will Work Past Retirement Age

Small Business Formation by Age

work. Avg 45-54 55-64 65+

Sources: Kauffman Foundation, US Census www.emergentresearch.com

Generation Y Will Turn to Small Business

• Digital natives with excellent Percentage of Teens

end user tech skills Who Want to Work For:

Mobile Computing Continues Strong Growth

• Internet access devices

Cloud Computing Becomes Mainstream for

Small Business Expands Use of Online Marketing

• Small business online presence growing

Carolyn Ockels & Steve King

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