Increasing current food production more than proportional to population growth is required so as to provide most

humans with an adequate diet. Food prices have been raising since 2000, spiked in early 2008, and may remain high
for another ten years. Continued uncertainties about the extent of the drought damage in Russia and other Black Sea
exporters initially prompted more speculative buying of futures, despite generally ample global grain supplies.
Confirmation by Russia on 5 August 2010 of a temporary export ban saw another surge in wheat and barley values
on the day, but prices subsequently eased in generally overbought futures markets.
Serious degradation and loss of the world's arable land is taking place and expansion of irrigation, vital for food
production, is becoming more costly and difficult.
The 1992 population was 5.5 billion. World population is now increasing at about 1.7% yr, corresponding to a
doubling time of 40 years. The world population would reach 10 billion in 2050. World population is projected to
continue increasing well into the next century. A central question is whether and how global food production may be
increased to provide for the coming population expansion. It would be necessary to increase current levels of food
production more than proportional to population growth so as to provide most humans with an adequate diet.
Some 20 years ago, Africa produced food equal to what it consumed; today it produces only 80% of what it
consumes. About 38% of the world's grain production is now fed to livestock.
THE FUTURE:
To obtain a realistic picture of future food requirements, we also must examine the reasons for the increase in
demand for food and agricultural products and the possibilities of meeting that demand.
Depending on the assumptions used to estimate population growth and predict future dietary patterns, annual world
food demand will be between 7.3 billion metric tons and 18.8 billion metric tons of grain equivalents. The food grain
production of India for the 2009-10 seasons is estimated to decline by 7.51%.
According the second advance food grains estimate released by the India Government, the country's food grains
output is estimated at 216.85 million tons in the 2009-10 season while in 2008-09 season it was reported 234.47
million tons. Whilst future population growth will aggravate food insecurity, its significance is often exaggerated.
Current global food production is more than sufficient to meet the FAO’s minimum dietary requirement for all – it is
the eating habits of the existing population and the resolve to distribute resources fairly that will dictate future food
security. For example, 33% of the World’s grain production is fed to animals. Despite projections that global food
production must rise by 70% by 2050 to meet the needs of the projected 40% growth in world population, the FAO
has repeatedly expressed “cautious optimism” that this demand can be met.
Estimates indicate that the additional quantity of food that will need to be produced over the next forty years will equal
the total quantity of food produced since agriculture began. To produce this amount will require us to double or triple
production per hectare.
Farming everywhere will depend more on information-intensive agricultural management procedures. Population
growth is assumed to follow the UN medium projection leading to about 10 billion people by 2050, soil erosion
continues to degrade land productivity, salinization and water logging of the soil continues, and groundwater overdraft
continues with supplies in some aquifers being depleted; there is a modest expansion of cropland at the expense of
world forests, and a slight expansion of irrigation.
India's population growth rate has leveled off at 2.1%/year and China's at 1.3%/year.
Significantly reduced wheat and barley crop prospects, especially in the CIS and the EU, cut the 2010/11 global
grains crop forecast by 8m. tons from July, to 1,745m., 2.4% below the previous year’s record. Buffered by
substantially higher carry-in stocks, the decline in total availabilities is forecast to be less steep. Because of the
downward revision in the production forecast and an increased consumption estimate, world stocks of grain at the
end of 2010/11 are placed 9m. tons lower than before, at 360m. The past month’s sharp rise in international grain
prices has further reduced the outlook for global trade in 2010/11, now forecast to fall to 232m. tons, 2m. less than
projected in July and 7m. below the 2009/10 estimate. However, the sharp fall in Black Sea region exports will see a
marked shift in trade flows, with US exports in particular placed much higher than before.
TOTAL GRAINS*
(million tonnes) 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
est forecast
29.07 26.08
Production 1588 1697 1801 1787 1753 1745
Trade 222 239 249 239 234 232
Consumption 1629 1685 1723 1764 1774 1779
Carryover stocks 281 294 371 394 369 360
Year/Year -41 +13 +77 +23 - -34
change
Exporters** 115 111 150 154 132 122
Source: INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL
(* Wheat and coarse grains) (** Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, United States)