Impact Calculus

 Three basic types of impact calculus

1. Probability (one impact is more likely)

e.g. Economic collapse is more probable than an outbreak of grey goo
therefore, the risk of economic collapse outweighs the risk of a grey
goo disaster.

2. Timeframe (one impact will happen faster)

e.g. An asteroid impact will cause extinction before Global warming
will, therefore an asteroid Impact outweighs Global Warming.

3. Magnitude (one impact is bigger)

e.g. Nuke war kills more people than car accidents.

 Other types of impact calculus

1. Impact inclusivity (one impact is inclusive of the other)

e.g. Global war is inclusive of a Taiwan war, therefore global war
outweighs Taiwan war.

2. X creates Y (one impact causes the other impact to happen)

e.g. War causes genocide, therefore war outweighs genocide

3. Internal link short-circuiting (one impact prevents a positive impact

from happening)
e.g. Nuke war halts clean air efforts in U.S, therefore nuclear war
outweighs clean air efforts.
4. Reversibility
e.g. Civil liberties lost in the name of security during a time of crisis
can be restored later, but deaths caused by a lack of security are
irreversible.

5. Pre-Fiat (as opposed to Post-Fiat)

e.g. Actual in-round education and actions should be weighed more
than “imaginary” post-fiat impacts.

Framework arguments can also be considered impact calculus.

Arguments as to why the judge should adopt a utilitarian or
consequentialist perspective or conversely a deontological perspective
may change the way they compare impacts.