From: Harold Ickes [mailto:hickes@ickesenright.com] Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2007 9:43 PM To: Hilary 08 - howard Wolfson ; Lester, Beth; Hillary 08 - neera Tanden ; Hillary 08 - patti solis doyle; Harold Ickes; rillary 08 - kim molstre; hillary 08 - Mandy Grunwald; PSP Penn; “Tan Ritchie FWD"; hillary 08 - mike henry; hillary 08 - patti sols via adam Subject: assumptions 3.29.07 Attached is a revised set of assumptions coming out of our meeting earlier this week. Please let me have you edits. Thanks Harold3.29.07 Key assumptions Likely three way race until at least NH (HRC, BO & JE) 5 February likely to decide putative nominee HRC “must” to win either IA or NH. BO & JE can lose both and still come back ‘+ Very difficult for HRC to lose both IA & NH, even narrowly, and carry on * Given rule of proportional representation, it is possible for HRC to lose both 1A & NH very narrowly, win one of NV or SC, and still win enough delegates on 5 February, but only if viable three way race into 5 February * Prolonged and repeated personal contact by voters/caucus participants with HRC very much works in her favor -- argues for substantial HRC time in 1A. © HRC has stronger support among down scale voters compared to up scale and among Democrats compared to Independents, thus IA, where only Democrats, ‘may participate in the caucuses, is better for her than NH, where Independents ‘may participate in the primary > Need research to test these propositions — down scale/upscale & Democrat/Independent Currently HRC is the “incumbent” which is not best position in primary fight If HRC comes to be seen as slipping, a substantial portion of current leadership/opinion maker support likely to melt BO cuts heavily into HRC’s otherwise potential Black vote BO will substantially reduce HRC vote in CA None will take pre-convention federal matching funds None will take general election federal grant BO may well out pace HRC, or at least keep even, on fundraising Very difficult to raise more that $75 million during calendar 2007 that can be spent pre-convention © Due to lag in receipts from fundraising in January 08, need $25 million cash on hand as of 12.31.07 Key assumplions, 329.07 hillary 08