Canadian Journal on Electrical and Electronics Engineering Vol. 1, No.

3, April 2010

Crisis of Electrical Energy in Pakistan and Future guide

line for policy makers
Sifat Shah, A. Rashid, M.K.L Bhatti, Shahid Khattak, Laiq Khan

Abstract: This paper analyses the problem of shortfall in the supply of electrical energy that is presedntly being faced

by Pakistan. The root causes of the shortfall in supply are mentioned. A forecast for next 10-12 years has been made

using empirical data and preliminary calculations. A brief review is given about the potential of Pakistan to produce

electricity and energy sources it has. Importance of utilizing coal resources of Pakistan also discussed in it. Also

potential of water resource for construction of hydro-electric power station is described with mentioning the

importance of run of river power station. Short and long term solutions to overcome this crisis are also given.

Importance of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power is discussed in this article. This article provides

a brief review of energy crisis in Pakistan and the main area to be focused to minimize shortfall of electricity in

Pakistan.

Key Words: Energy Crisis, Renewable Energy, Energy Sources

1. INTRODUCTION

Pakistan has been facing an unprecedented energy crisis since the last few years. The problem becomes more severe during
summers. During the peak load there was a power shortage of 8 t0 12 hours every day. Around the world, through out every
country, electricity is the most wide spread and desirable form of energy, and it is a basic requirement for the economic
development and for an adequate slandered of living for a country, as population grows and economic growth continues,
electrical energy is in short supply. Its conservation, its careful and efficient use is of general and urgent concern, improving
energy efficiency in electrical system must begin in our energy consuming sector. The deficit is some what reduced due to
cheep power produced through hydel energy and natural gas, but the deficit cannot change substantially, unless bulk of
electricity is produced through hydel energy. The government should take serious action on urgent bases to overcome the
shortage problem of electricity. For this purpose government and private sector have to plan in three categories’

Almost two years ago the, WAPDA chairman admitted that WAPDA cannot meet the current demand for electricity. It is
surprising that such a senior and experienced person took so long time to find out this problem .On top of that the government
which talked about Pakistan’s supposedly booming economy failed to understand the gravity of the situation. General
Musharraf (R) after becoming Chief Executive used to talk about building dams especially Kalabagh Dam. This was one of
the many promises he failed to keep. Even after that very few power plants have been set up to meet the demand for
electricity. In these days Pakistan is under energy crisis. If we think as a nation about this crisis, it is totally due to lack of
future planning and forecasting, which is very important for the future planning and development of a country.

Any power system has 3 major parts

1. Generation system
2. Transmission system
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 Canadian Journal on Electrical and Electronics Engineering Vol. 1, No.3, April 2010

3. Distribution system

T.L Total generating capacity in Pakistan by all sectors is

G Transmission
Load 19681MW.detail
.detail of it is presented in table 1

Line Table 1
Public sector MW %
Generator GridStation GridStation Distribution WAPDA 6444 33
(Generation) (Distribution) System GENCOs 4834 25
PAEC 462 2
Sub-total 11740 60
Private sector
IPPs 6185 31
KESC 1756 9
Sub-total 7941 40
G. total 19681 100

ergy crisis problems are exists due to insufficiency of any component of our Power
In generally major causes of energy
System in Pakistan. Which are

• Insufficient Generation.
• Insufficient Transmission Lines.
• Insufficient Transformers and Grid Stations.
• insufficient Distribution System
• high transmission line losses
• high distribution line losses

Energy crisis is also generated by

• Mis management
• Improper planning and Forecasting
• Untimely development of new ggenerating stations and Power Plants
• No new Transmission/Distribution networks & grid stations
• Unexpectedly rapid growth of load

Historical peak demand of Pakistan for year2007 are calculated in table 2

Table 2 Historical peak demand 2002

2002-2007
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 Canadian Journal on Electrical and Electronics Engineering Vol. 1, No.3, April 2010

WAPDA* KESC Country**

Year Growth Growth Growth
MW MW MW
rate rate Rate
2001-
10109 40.02% 1885 1.34% 11875 3.59%
02
2002-
10481 3.68% 1973 4.67% 12330 3.11%
03
2003-
11078 5.70% 2073 5.07% 13021 6.35%
04
2004-
12035 8.46% 2197 5.98% 14091 8.22%
05
2005-
13212 9.78% 2223 1.18% 15282 8.45%
06
2006-
15138 14.6% 2349 5.67% 17314 13.33%
07
2007-
16484 8.9% 2673 13.85% 18983 9.7%
08
wapda computed demand, **Maximum Demand with diversity factor of 1.01

Demand forecasting for year2020 are calculated as shown in table 3

Table 3 Demand Forecasting 2008-2020

201 201 202

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015
3 4 0
PEPCO/ 2246 241 259 2802 411
16484 17868 19352 20874
NTDC 0 26 19 9 32
418 456 815
KESC 2673 2916 3206 3509 3841
6 5
4976
9
PEPCO 302
2606 280 3270 488
&KESC 18983 20594 22353 24161
2 54
07
4 43
**
OTHER
288 318 551
GENER 1720 1906 2121 2358 2621
9 7
3513
6
ATION
TOTAL
2868 309 333 3621 543
Country 20703 22500 24474 26520
3 44 94 7 19
Demand
*actual , **after diversity maximum demand 1.009

For the planning to overcome energy crisis government

should work in three phases

1) Short term planning

2) Medium term planning

3) Long term planning

In table 4 shown the forecasting of generation demand and possible deficit.

Short term Medium term Long term

Years 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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 Canadian Journal on Electrical and Electronics Engineering Vol. 1, No.3, April 2010

a Existin
gGener
ation
Hydel 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444
Gen.Co 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580
s
IPPs 5541 5541 5541 5541 5541 5541 5541 5541 5541 5541 5541 5541 5541
Rental 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285
SPPs 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
Total 1592 15920 15920 15920 15920 15920 15920 15920 15920 15920 15920 15920 1592
A 0 0
b Commi
tted
Under 215 2466 5501 7806 7806 7556 7256 7256 7256 7256 7256 7256 7256
process
generat
ion
c Total 1613 18386 21421 23726 23726 23476 23176 23176 23176 23176 23176 23176 2317
A+B 5 6
d 0.8×C 1290 14709 17137 18981 18981 18781 18541 18541 18541 18541 18541 18541 1854
8 1
e Deman 207022500 24474 26520 28683 30944 33394 36217 40648 43864 46689 50152 5431
d 3 9
summe
r peak
f Surplus - -7791 -7237 --7539 - -12273 - -1 - - - - -
/deficit 7805 10702 14853 22107 25323 28148 31611 3573
generat 8
ion
Table 4 Supply and demand position: 2008
2008—2020

100%
90% 1885 1973 2073 2197 2223 2349 2400
80%
70%
60%
50% KESC
40% 10109104811107812035132121513815890
30% WAPDA
20%
10%
63
0%
Canadian Journal on Electrical and Electronics Engineering Vol. 1, No.3, April 2010

if we see the situation the deficit is increasing beside increasing generation, so government must take some extra steps to
overcome this crisis. For this purpose we recommend some solutions.

2. Short term solution

2.1 Line losses control

In short term, the foremost immediate action which can give some relief is the conservation of energy by implementing
energy saving rule. the government should take certain measurement like reduces the high generating losses transmission and
distribution losses, over all losses in wapda is 24% by reducing these losses up to 10 % we can save energy up to 3MW .theft
control, and shutting down shops excessive and unnecessary lighting .the cities be divided in zones, and the market on these
zones can be closed on different days, can also save peak time energy usage.

18000
16000 2.2 Improving Power generating capacity
14000
it has been survey that the wapda and IPPs thermal power plants
12000 are running average about 50 percent plant factor which means
10000 that they are not being used to their potential level,75 to 80
percent plant factor is quite feasible. This would require better
8000 WAPDA maintenance of such plants. Higher plant factor on these power
6000 station can provided 20 to 30 %more energy which will
KESC
4000 circumvent the present shortage to a certain extent. Improving the
power plant factor of the existing plant is far more economical
2000 then setting up new power plants.
0
3. Medium Term solutions

The policy makers of Pakistan have so far failed to understand

one thing. They do talk about making dams and setting up nuclear
power plants but why do they not understand the importance and benefits of alternate energy (renewable source of energy)
sources such as solar, windmill energy, etc. They are cheap and quick methods for producing electricity. Pakistan is a very
blessed country because solar energy is available in most cities all year round similarly wind energy is readily available in the
coastal areas. These energy sources if tapped can be of great help in reducing the current demand supply gap.

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Canadian Journal on Electrical and Electronics Engineering Vol. 1, No.3, April 2010

3.1 Wind Energy

Now a day the world is giving concentration toward the renewable energy resources. Especially toward the wind energy.
America, Canada and china has research and developed their system to get maximum energy from wind energy. They have
achieved 30000MW from wind.
Wind power is now the fastest-growing energy source worldwide. However, land clearing for vast "wind farms" may produce
environmental concerns. Many predict that wind energy will provide more U.S. electrical production as new turbine designs
enhance economic and environmental viability.
Germany, with over 12,000 megawatts of wind power at the end of 2002, leads the world in
generating capacity. Spain and the United States, at 4,800 and 4,700 megawatts, are second and
third. Tiny Denmark is fourth with 2,900 megawatts, and India is fifth with 1,700 megawatts.
Although a score of countries now generate electricity from wind, a second wave of major players is
coming onto the field, including the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Brazil, and China.

3.2 Solar Energy

Pakistan has wide spectrum of high potential of renewable energy sources, a very large part of the rural areas does not have
the electrification facilities because they are either too remote or to expensive to connect to the national grid station. So
Pakistan like other developing countries of the region is facing a serious challenge of energy deficit. The development of the
renewable energy sources can play an important role in meeting this challenge. Pakistan being in the sunny belt is ideally
located to take advantage of the solar energy technologies. This energy sources is widely distributed and abundantly available
in the country. During last 15 years Pakistan has shown quite encouraging development in photovoltaic cells. Currently solar
energy technology is being used is encourageble. in Pakistan some public parks has been electrify by solar system in
Peshawar (khalid bin waleed park) another parks illuminated by solar system in Rawalpindi (race course ) .the public health
department has installed many solar water pump for drinking purposes in different parts of the country. Both public and
private sector are playing their role in up grading of photovoltaic system in the country. If we take this technology in mass
commercial production of electricity we can easily reduces of energy shortage problem.

4. Long term solution

4.1 Coal Potential in Pakistan

Pakistan has the 5th largest coal reservoir in the world total Coal reserves in Pakistan: 185.175 billion tones in Pakistan,
Thar is largest coal reserves which is approximately 75.5 billion tones. if Pakistan use all coal resources it can generate
more than 100000 Mw of electricity for next 30 years, but at present Pakistan has generate only 0.79% of its total
electricity ,coal contributes approximately 39% of the total global primary energy demand . Share of coal in total
electricity produced in different countries is

PAKISTAN 0.79%
USA 56%
UK 58%
China 81%

4.2 Hydel power potential

Pakistan also has a huge potential to produce electric power from different sources, like nuclear power plants and hydro-
electric power plants. In table 5 presents a view of electric power generation with the power plants whose feasibility is
completed or under process. Construction of all these plants gives almost 55 000 MW, which meet the requirement of
Pakistan for next 20-25 years.

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Canadian Journal on Electrical and Electronics Engineering Vol. 1, No.3, April 2010

Table. 5. Pakistan’s Total Power Potential

Station/Projects Capacity
(MW)
Hydel Stations in Operation 6596
Under Implementations 1965
Chasnupp- 2 300
Feasibility Study Completed 1780
8840
i. Run Of River
ii. Multipurpose

Feasibility Studies in Hand 10331

Projects Feasibility Studies are to be 25000
Carried Out
Total 54711

From the table 5 we can see that hydro-electric power has a great potential, some detail of these projects are given in table
6.These plants can give low cast electricity and as they are run of river plants, they can easily install with minimum cost and
time.

Table 6. Run of river projects with their feasibility status.

Name of Project Capacity Feasibility Status

(MW)

Basho 28 Completed
Harpo 28 "
Phandar 80 "
Doyian 425 "
Naltar 32 "
Kohala 600 "
Gulpur 100 "
Kotli 100 "
Daral Khwar 35 "
Bunji 5400 In Hand
Dasu 3700 "
Gabral 105 "
Keyel Khwar 130 "
Lawi 65 "
Spat Gah Lower
545 "
scheme
Chor Nullah Lower
386 "
scheme

Total 10331

Conclusion
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Canadian Journal on Electrical and Electronics Engineering Vol. 1, No.3, April 2010

The policy makers of Pakistan have so far failed to understand one thing. They do talk about making dams and setting up
nuclear power plants but why do they not understand the importance and benefits of alternate energy (renewable source of
energy) sources such as solar, windmill Tidal, Wave, and Geothermal energy, etc. They are cheap and quick methods for
producing electricity. Pakistan is a very blessed country because solar energy is available in most cities all year round
similarly wind energy is readily available in the coastal areas. These energy sources if tapped can be of great help in reducing
the current demand supply gap. Despite the renewable energy also potential of coal and hydro-electric run of river plants must
be considered seriously for the long term planning.

References

1. Demand side management Concept and Methods, C.W. Gelling and J.H chamberlain Fairmont press Lilburn,
Georgia 1988.

2. Electrical Engineering Management Georgia Institute of Technology 1981

3. IAEE (International Association for Energy Economics), 1988 south and Southeast Asia Pricing issue, v.9,

4. US Department of energy 2002, office of energy efficiency and Renewable Energy, Geothermal Energy Program

5. FBS, 1998, 50 years of Pakistan in statistics. Federal Bureau of Statistics Government of Pakistan Vol.1,p.1-140

6. FBS, 2002a statistical pocket book of Pakistan 2002: Government of Pakistan January 2002

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