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Ekonometri I
Oleh:
Listiana Ulya Maulida
252176 / 16673
3.22
a.
600 Price
of Gold
500
$ (dollar)
400
CPI
300
200
NYSE
100
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Year
b.
Price of Gold = b1+b2 CPI+ u
700
600
500
Gold Price ($)
200
100
0
0 50 100 150
CPI ($)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,384863
R Square 0,14812
Adjusted R
Square 0,08259
Standard Error 104,8233
Observations 15
ANOVA
Significanc
df SS MS F eF
Regression 1 24836,65 24836,65 2,260359 0,156623
Residual 13 142843 10987,92
Total 14 167679,6
Model Summary
Adjusted R Std. Error of
Model R R Square Square the Estimate
1 ,385(a) ,148 ,083 104,82328
a Predictors: (Constant), CPI
ANOVA(b)
Sum of
Model Squares Df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regressio
24836,645 1 24836,645 2,260 ,157(a)
n
Residual 142842,95
13 10987,920
7
Total 167679,60
14
2
a Predictors: (Constant), CPI
b Dependent Variable: GOLDPRIC
Coefficients(a)
Unstandardized Standardized
Coefficients Coefficients
250
200
NYSE Index ($)
150
NYSE
Linear (NYSE)
100
50
0
0 50 100 150
CPI ($)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,932561002
R Square 0,869670022
Adjusted R
Square 0,859644639
Standard Error 19,71813164
Observations 15
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significanc
eF
Regression 1 33727,57007 33727,57 86,7468 4,0784E-07
Residual 13 5054,4613 388,8047
Total 14 38782,03137
Model Summary
ANOVA(b)
Sum of
Model Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regressio
33727,570 1 33727,570 86,747 ,000(a)
n
Residual 5054,461 13 388,805
Total 38782,031 14
a Predictors: (Constant), CPI
b Dependent Variable: NYSE
Coefficients(a)
Unstandardized Standardized
Coefficients Coefficients
9000
8000
7000
6000
NGDP ($
5000 NGDP
4000 RGDP
3000
2000
1000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
b. NGDP= β1+β2Year+μ
9000
NGDP (current dolars in billion)
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000 NGDP
3000 Linear (NGDP)
2000
1000
0
-10001950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2000
Year
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,963189
R Square 0,927732
Adjusted R
Square 0,925779
Standard Error 651,3667
Observations 39
ANOVA
Significanc
df SS MS F eF
Regression 1 2,02E+08 2,02E+08 474,9858 1,05E-22
Residual 37 15698308 424278,6
Total 38 2,17E+08
Model Summary
ANOVA(b)
Sum of
Model Squares Df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regressio 201526312 201526312,56
1 474,986 ,000(a)
n ,562 2
Residual 15698307,
37 424278,592
902
Total 217224620
38
,464
a Predictors: (Constant), YEAR
b Dependent Variable: NGDP
Coefficients(a)
Unstandardized Standardized
Coefficients Coefficients
NGDP=-986,332 + 201,977Year+ μ
RGDP=β1+β2Year+μ
Real GDP for U.S.
8000
Real GDP (1992 billions of
7000
6000
5000
dollars)
RGDP
4000
Linear (RGDP)
3000
2000
1000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,995713
R Square 0,991445
Adjusted R
Square 0,991214
Standard Error 138,2259
Observations 39
ANOVA
Significanc
df SS MS F eF
Regression 1 81928883 81928883 4288,031 7,29E-40
Residual 37 706937,3 19106,41
Total 38 82635820
Model Summary
Sum of
Model Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regressio 81928883,
1 81928883,047 4288,031 ,000(a)
n 047
Residual 706937,29
37 19106,413
0
Total 82635820,
38
337
a Predictors: (Constant), YEAR
b Dependent Variable: RGDP
Coefficients(a)
Unstandardized Standardized
Coefficients Coefficients
RGDP=1907,715 + 128,782Year+ μ
β1 =1907,715 =titik potong pada sumbu y,=akan terjadi NGDP
sejumlah 1907,715 pada tahun ke 0.
Pada NGDP:
β2 =201,977=koefisien kemiringan garis= setiap penambahan 1 unit
variabel tahun akan terjadi kenaikan NGDP secara rata-rata
sebesar 201,977.
Pada RGDP:
β2 =128,782=koefisien kemiringan garis=setiap penambahan 1 unit
variable tahun akan terjadi kenaikan RGDP secara rata-rata
sebesar 128,782.
e. From the results what you can say about the nature of inflation in the
United States over the sample period?