National Seminar on State and Challenges of GIS and Remote Sensing Applications in Water Sector Islamabad 25-26 June 2008 PROCEEDINGS Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources IslamabadMonitoring Global Warming Impact on Glacier Environment Using GIS Application A. Ashraf, R. Roohi, S. az, B. Ahmad and R. Naz ‘iter Roscutces Research inituta (WARD, AARC, Pan Rosa idanbad omseuny aBGe® ,wesiom Hinalaa are being ataced by goal veming and a depiing a Hrnmwuate alin recent decades. Ths has boon roveaiod inthe sity caries out Acuna yo Morn nate, akstn, An tayated Googie inometon syton (aS) and reese eine at nc, Ne, been flowed to mvestgate the behuvor of gncers ar aca ales ener acon eS) seas i coatnsamnarl aah of aces enronmen ws aad eu and Wenders oe Parameters woe sued lth actor behav ard eas angie dons ee iy deci isng Wend of a ree ace erronment of Pe monsoon bo of Himayes stows a high responce to oboing ciate, The fia 82 of BS and GIS tchneues wih spate Isis tai found het h mostonay aoe inaey asm eae nentring of lars and ual les, ana igaten measice se eos crea in atecas aceite lai lak outburst food (Or hacar Wah cones feng ots eee ne Fagen | > Sep beter sates to cope wine potions ef cminaing wer oseeoal note ree region, Keywords: Spato Temporal Ary, GLOF, Remote Sesing, Crcsphere, Westom Hinalajos, INTRODUCTION rong changes in ice caps occurrences and corresponding impacts on physical high-mountain tems could be among the most directly visible signals of global warning, This ke ase enerot ihe Primary reasons why glacier observations have been used for climate systam monitoring for Tatunal ears (Haeberl, 1990). Gis is rapidly becoming a standard tool for managerregt of pale) Zesources. The effort to perform comprehensive analysis of management soenatice mal Pe aubstantially reduced by an easily accessible database, a conveniont intorace teneeey alabase and existing models, visualization and analysis utities. Recentiy, GIS nes anciney Gimension Cone Gimeng the computer too's for decision support of problome with a spattal ath Cho can Seeman and Jaeschke, 1290). The integration of visual and digital image analysis GIS can provide useful tool for the study of climate change impact. in many remote sensing and GIS based studies on glacier environment, the glacior cover of (rounlain regions worldwide has indicated significant decrease during recent years ae a eect of temperstere tance ecardng to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the mean global ie pearature in 2005 is deviated by +0.47°C from the average of the normal potiod 1961: 1aue i anet Seect the warmest years and currently ranks as the second warmest year worlds (aust, 2005). A recent compavison of historical glacier data with images liom the money (eavance Spacebome Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) insttument oo NeSae TERRA satolite by the United States’ Geological Survey revealed a signiticart shrinkage of (Woecalg piers in the Andes, the Himalayas, the Alps and the Pyrenees over the past detec {iiessels et al, 2001). A study by Dyurgerov and Meier (1997) who considered ths voce Galance changes of aver 200 mountain glaciers globally, concluded that the redeeton rs global See aos, amounted to between 6,000 and 8,000 km# over a 30 year period between ioet (WOM) teaming #© Haebeti and Hoelzle (2001) of the World Glacier Monitoring Serves TREN ST, sregmeasurements taken over tho last contury clearly reveal a general shikegs of ‘mounlain glaciers on 2 Global scale. They observed that the trend was most pronounced during 125the first half of the 20th centu The Himalayan glaciers have also been found to (Mayewski and Jaschke, 1979). Since the mid-1970s the average air temperature measured Genttons of the Himalayan region rose by 1°C with high oat sites warming the (Hasnain, 2000), n order to analyse the impacts of elimac change on glaciers, the nature global warming impact with respect to series of glaciers hrvon individual drainage basin neg be understood. ‘The aim of the present study is to analyse the behavior and response of glacier envirom wp fesbect to increase in glabal warming trough application by GIS and remote se \cehniques, The study area has been selected in the sruinaesrer art of Astore River time fonaitudes range 748 35'- 74 45° and laiudes range ale Sth 342 58' in the nort Raciated region of Pakistan (Figure 1). 1 comprises part ot Wesiem Himalaya lying east Nanga Parbat mountain range. Astore River draine the Glaciated watershed via a tnbuta ‘Shodas running southwest to noriheast The study area which falls partially in the m and large glaciers and associated glacial lakes, jonsoonal climate belt possesses numerous 5 MATERIAL AND METHODS Data used The satellite remote sensing (SRS) data of periods 1993, 2001 and 2005 acquired from ‘satelite ground station SUPARCO, Islamabad, were used as primary data. For historical trend analysis, glaciers cover from epographic map of 1:50,000 scale of year 1964 was acquired from Survey of Pakistan, The digital elevation model (DEM) data of SRTM available at 90 m resolution was used rec atacterzation of glaciers and glacial gos Location of Study Area in Norham Paki {akes. Time series data of hydro-meteorology rerpatore basin was used to study the trends in climate data ie summer and temperatures (max& min), precipitation including rainfall nad suns ata, and river discha monitored by Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), Pekin, Methodology RS image data coupled with topographic _maps was used to identify and deline Poundaries of glaciers and glacial lakes. The SAS images mare ‘ge0-referenced and re-say feonnoranion coordinate system i.e. Transverse Mercator, and spate resolution of 15 m, ipannraue of digital image analysis facilitates image onhancemect ora spectral classificatio Fac iound features and, hence, greatly helps in identiyins ona delineating boundarie Glaciers and glacial lakes, Five glaciers and five associated glacal lakes were selected in Astore basin of fiimalaya. It comprises glaciers and associated glacial lakes tr series, with one glacial Folviidentifed as potentially dangerous of outburst flood (GLOF). Spatial data layers of g and glacial lakes were developed through on-screen oh 126Spatial data layers of glaciers and glacial lakes in GIS. Time series dats oy hydro-meteorology Slimate cata ie. summer and winter temperatures (max& min), Precipitation and Astore river discharge. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 1962 1966 1960 1971 1976 1977 1960 1969 1806 1989 1862 1995 1098 2001 2004 Year Figure 2: Alsing Trend of Summer Temperatures (July-September) Dunng 1962-2008 Period Glacier Area (70643005) ~ Lake Area (1993-2005) | CaS [ine Toes | SE | oe [ee] eee | 2s | ten ies acca ozs = lca iat] ae "900 all Sea cal eal css : wera] es] 0 [ 28] 0m| amr lata soot) ea toa| ost a97| a0] ons sim | 20520| osea] ions 256] 2419 soa| 155i] aa tone [sos] 17] ua] 50] am om] am[ Toe 1272005 is shown in Figure 5. The increase in lakes area i than before. The depletion/expansion of glaciers/lakes var upon topography and local climatic conditions. In order to behavior, the analysis can be extended to whole Himalaya Figure 3: Spatio. Temporal Analysis of Glaciers and Glacial Lakes During Last Four Decadesremem Sf | tam aro saan a000 20 thee rr er Figure 4 Vaiaton i Glace Area Dung 19642005 Poros Figure 6: Vaaton in Glacial Les Ara Cun 1069-2008 Ponod CONCLUSIONS The results of the study reveal that glaciers in this part of Himalayan region are being affected by global warming. The integrated use of RS and GIS techniques with sparse in-situ data is found helpful in analyzing the glaciers behavior of Northern Pakistan. The mapping of glaciers and glacial lakes can be facilitated by the use of high resolution remote sensing data (IKONOS, Quick Bird, aerial photographs) combined with large scale topographic maps. Regular monitoring of glaciers and glacial lakes, and mitigation measures aro. required especially in areas susceptible to GLOF hazards. The impacis of global warming on cryosphere of northem glaciated region need to be investigated in detail in order to cope up with the situations like, diminishing water resources especially because of glacial retreats and flood hazards in the downstream areas. REFERENCES: Dyurgerov, M.B and Meier, M.F. (1997). "Mass Balance of Mountain and Sub-polar Glaciers: ‘ANew Global Assessment for 1961-1990", Arctic and Alpine Research, 29(4): 379-291 Faust E. (2005). Climate Review, Munich Re, Topics Geo, Annual Review: Natural Catastrophes 2005, (Knowledge Series). 51p. Haberl, W and Hoelzle, M. (2001), The World Glacier Monitoring Service, Haeberl, W. (1990). “Glacier and Permatrost Signals of 20" Century Warming’, Annals of Glaciology, 14: 99-101 Hasnain S. |. (2000). Stalus of the Glacier Research in the HKH Region. ICIMOD, Kathmandu, Nepal. Mayweski P. and P. A. Jaschke (1979). “Himalaya and Trans Himalayan Glacier Fluctuation since A. D. 1812”. Arctic and Alpine Research, 11(3): 267-287, Pillmann, W. & Jaeschke, A. (eds.) (1990). Proceedings of the 5" Symposium on: Infromatics for Environmental Protection, Vienna 1990, Informatik-fachberichte 256. Wien: Springer. Verlag, Roohi, R., Mool, P. Ashraf A., Bajracharya S., S. Amjad and R. Naz (2005). Inventory of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes the Identification of Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Floods affected by Global Warming in the Mountains of Himalayan Region, Indus Basin, Pakistan. ICIMOD, Nepal & PARC, Pakistan (CD). Wessels, R.L., Kargel, J.S., and Kieffer, HH. (2001). Global Land lee Measurements from Space: Documenting the Demise of Earth's Glaciers using ASTER. American Geophysical Union 2001 Spring Meeting, May 2001 129