Public Assessment of The Government Performance & Political Leadership in Andhra Pradesh

Public Assessment of the
Government Performance & Political Leadership

in Andhra Pradesh – Presentation of Findings
Prepared for:
Rachana Television Pvt. Ltd

Prepared by : The Nielsen Company
Date: 26th Jan 2011
Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company

Background
Rachana Television Pvt. Ltd., Hyderabad launched its regional 24X7 live
Telugu news channel NTV in mid 2007 and celebrated its 3rd anniversary in
2010
As a part of its initiative to establish itself as a credible player in the news
space, NTV partnered with Nielsen and revolutionized the concept of doing
periodic large scale opinion polls to assess the public sentiment and sharing it
with public through its prime time programming
Having successfully predicted the outcome for 2009 Assembly Polls, NTV
wishes to continue its partnership with Nielsen in doing periodic public
assessment and sharing it with public.
The following presentation details out the findings of the Opinion Poll carried
out in Jan 2011 in Andhra Pradesh to help assess the mood of the public on
performance of the state government and political leadership in the state.
Public Assessment of AP Government &

17-Feb-11 Page 2 Confidential & Proprietary
Political Leadership (Jan 2011) Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company
Research Objectives
 Overall assessment of the performance of the current Congress Government

and that of opposition parties in the state
 Leadership assessment of the various political parties
 Likely political trends based on the current mood of the public
 Views of public regarding key issues such as – Division of the state and the
Farmers issue

Target Respondent
We polled the public who met the following criteria -

• Males/Females
• 18+ years (Registered voter)
Quotas were maintained to adequately represent

• Gender – Male & Female
• Age groups – 18-24 years, 25-44years and 45+years

Target ACs
• 75 Assembly Constituencies were chosen to be studied
• The sampling was done across the regions representing the relative strengths of
the parties across ACs (based on the vote share of the different parties in the 2009
legislative assembly elections)

Research Methodology
In the identified ACs, a fixed number of polling booths were randomly identified
using a systematic random sampling approach. And a fixed number of eligible voters
were interviewed around each polling booth
Face-to-Face interviews were carried out with the respondents using a fully
structured questionnaire. Ballot boxes were used to gather past voting pattern and
future intention to vote for a specific party to avoid response bias
Quotas were set to adequately represent all age groups and both males and females
Based on the announcements in the media, the emergence of new party has been
considered for assessment.

Sample Design
Sample Size
12052 respondents were

interviewed across 75 AC’s, 16
polling booths in each AC and
10 interviews in every selected
polling booth.
FIELDWORK PERIOD : Jan 8th – Jan 17th

Region Split
Region AC
Telangana Sirpur, Chennur(SC), Mancherial, Armur, Yellareddy, Nizamabad (Urban), Dharmapuri (SC),
Sircilla, Huzurabad, Narsapur, Zahirabad (SC) Gajwel, Quthbullapur, Chevella (SC), Vicarabad
(SC), Goshamahal, Bahadurpura, Kodangal, Mahbubnagar, Wanaparthy, Nagarkurnool,
Achampet (SC), Devarakonda (ST), Nagarjuna Sagar, Nakrekal (SC), Palakurthi, Dornakal (ST),
Narsampet, Bhupalpalle, YELLANDU (ST), Khammam, Palair, Sathupalli
Costal Andhra Amadalavalasa, Rajam (SC), Palakonda (ST), Kurupam (ST), Gajapathinagaram,
Srungavarapukota, Visakhapatnam East, Gajuwaka, Payakaraopet (SC), Peddapuram,
Anaparthy, Amalapuram (SC), Mandapeta, Rajahmundry City, Achanta, Narasapuram,
Bhimavaram, Gannavaram, Kaikalur, Pamarru (SC), Jaggayyapeta, Tadikonda (SC), Vinukonda,
Parchur, Santhanuthalapadu (SC), Kandukur, Kanigiri, Nellore City, Nellore Rural, Survepalli
Rayalaseema Badvel (SC), Pulivendla, Kamalapuram, Kurnool, Panyam, Banaganapalle, Singanamala (SC),
Hindupur, Puttaparthi, Punganur,GANGADHARA NELLORE (SC), PALAMANER

Research Findings
9
Assessment of Andra Pradesh Government
Performance of the
government and the
opposition
10
Overall assessment of performance of the Congress Government
in the State after being re-elected in 2009
Figs in %
January 2011 INC Mean 3.37 3.05 2.1

3
13
Very Poor
19
32
16
Poor
32
33
Average 36
30
Good
28
21
Very Good 16 8
10
3
2008 2010 2011
Average Score: 2.1 ; Top 2 Box: 11 %; Bottom 2 Box: 68%
A clear and a significant dip in the public assessment of Congress Government’s

performance post Dr. YSRs demise.
Base All Respondents :
TOP TWO BOXES : BOTTOM TWO BOXES : 2008-All-87389; 2010-All-14102; 2011–All-12052
Very Good / Good Very Poor / Poor

Overall assessment of Congress Govt across regions when compared
with previous assessment in 2008
Figs in %
Comparison
56 53
49
45 44
38 36
31
TOP TWO BOXES :
Very Good /Good
11 12 13
8
Overall Rayalaseema Telangana Costal Andhra
2008 2010 2011
Public assessment of the Congress Government across all the 3 regions is a

consistent dip and very significant.
2008-All-87389; Telangana-35356; Rayalseema-18335; Coastal Andhra-33697
TOP TWO BOXES : 2011-All-12052; Telengana-5274; Rayalseema-1926; Coastal Andhra-4852
Very Good / Good

Overall assessment of performance of TDP as opposition in the state
during last 1 year
Figs in %
January 2011 TDP Across Region
31
27 28 27 27
25 24 24
21
TOP TWO BOXES :

19
Very Good /Good

16
11
Average Score: 2.3 ; Top 2 Box: 16 %; Bottom 2 Box: 64% 2008 2010 2011
Assessment of TDP as an opposition has also dipped a marginal improvement in the

last assessment in 2010. (Contributed mainly by the dip for TDP in Telangana region)

TOP TWO BOXES : BOTTOM TWO BOXES : 2011-All-12052; Telengana-5274; Rayalseema-1926; Coastal Andhra-4852

Overall assessment of performance of PRP as opposition in the state
during last 1 year
Figs in %
January 2011 PRP Across Region
12 12
10
8.1
TOP TWO BOXES :

Very Good /Good
5 5
3.7
Overall Rayalaseema Telangana Coastal Andhra
Average Score: 1.8 ; Top 2 Box: 5 %; Bottom 2 Box: 82% 2010 2011
PRP assessed very poorly in the state. The assessment is poor across regions.

TOP TWO BOXES : BOTTOM TWO BOXES : 2011-All-12052; Telengana-5274; Rayalseema-1926; Coastal Andhra-4852

People’s confidence on the current government’s stability
Figs in %
January 2011
71
52
30
22
It will survive and last its full term There will be mid term elections
until 2014
2010 2011
The confidence of public in the current Government has reduced and half of
them feel there would be mid term elections

2010- All- 14102; 2011 – All - 12052

People’s confidence on the current governments stability (By regions)
Figs in %
January 2011
56 56
47
33
29
22
Rayalaseema Telangana Costal Andhra
It will survive and last its full term until 2014
There will be mid term elections
The confidence in current government has gone across regions with more
than half predicting mid term elections in the state
2011-All-12052; Telengana-5274; Rayalseema-1926; Coastal Andhra-4852

State of Congress party after death of Dr. YSR Reddy
Figs in %
January 2011
80 83 82
76
22
18 16
14
1 1 1 1
It has weakened
It has remained same as before
It has strengthened
Most of the electorate feel that Congress party has weakened post death of Dr. YSR Reddy. The
assessment similar across regions

Reasons for weakening of Congress party
Figs in %
Coastal
January 2011
Rayalseema Telangana Andhra
48 29 33
20 35 33
11 15 15
11 10 8
8 8 10
0 2 2
The main reasons for weakening for Congress party as
per the public are Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy’s decision to Base All Respondents :
quit Congress as well as lack of good leadership within 2011-All-9657; Telengana-4341; Rayalseema-1608; Coastal Andhra-3708
Congress party.

Leaders’ assessment
19
Best CM Of AP after next elections
Figs in %
January 2011
More than 1/3rd see Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy as their next CM followed by N Chandrababu
Naidu, K Chandrasekhar Rao and N Kiran Kumar Reddy Base All Respondents : 2011-12052

Best CM Of AP after next elections (Across regions)
Figs in %
January 2011
BEST CM ACROSS
REGIONS
ALL 35 19 19 15 5
RAYALSEEMA 66 20 0 9 4
TELANGANA 12 14 43 16 1
COASTAL ANDHRA 48 23 0 17 11
Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy is seen as the frontrunner for the CM position in Rayalseema as well as Coastal
Andhra
K Chandrasekhar Rao finding a favour only among Telangana people

Image of Various leaders in the past one year
Figs in %
January 2011
Among all the main leaders in the state, the leaders whose image have improved in the last one
year are Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy as well as K Chandrasekhar Rao
The leaders whose image have deteriorated in the state are Chiranjeevi, Rosaiah, Sonia Gandhi
as well as Rahul Gandhi
Base All Respondents : 2011-12052

Quality of Life
23
Do you feel that the overall Quality of life of people in general has improved,
remained the same, deteriorated?
Figs in %
January 2011
Last one Year 12
Deteriorated/Will 26
Deteriorate
44
Same
58
44
Improved/Will Improve
16
Present Future
Future
Although most of them feel there is no change

in the quality of life in the last 1 year, close to
half are optimistic about the future
Base All Respondents : 2011-All-12052

Do you feel that the overall Quality of life of people in general has improved,
remained the same, deteriorated?
January 2011 May 2010

12 7 6
Deteriorated/Will 26 Deteriorated/Will
Deteriorate Deteriorate
46
44 56
Same Same
58
44 47
Improved/Will Improve 38
16
Present Future Present Future
Regarding the overall quality of life, people were far more positive in the
previous assessment

2010- All- 14102; 2011 – All - 12052

Do you feel that your personal economic situation has improved, remained
the same or deteriorated ?
Figs in %
January 2011
Last one Year 14

Deteriorated/Will 28
Deteriorate
41
Same
58
44
14
Present Future
Future
There is optimism with regards to the

future state of personal economic
situation, despite not so positive
assessment now.
Base All Respondents : 2011-All-12052

Do you feel that your personal economic situation has improved, remained the
same or deteriorated ?
January 2011 May 2010
11 11
14
Deteriorated/Will Deteriorated/Will
28
Deteriorate Deteriorate
41 44
54
Same
Same
58
44 Improved/Will Improve 45
Improved/Will Improve 34
14
Present Future Present Future
On comparison with previous assessment, people feel that their present

personal economic situation has deteriorated

2010- All- 14102; 2011 – All - 12052

Vote
Vote Share
Share and
and
Assembly
Assembly Seats
Seats
Assessment
Assessment
28
Assessment of Andra pradesh Government
AP LA 2009 (May) Results and Vote Share
INC TDP TRS CPI/ PRP Others

CPIM
No. of seats 156 92 10 5 18 13
won
13
TDP
28
TRS
PRP
CPI/CPIM
36
4 INC
3 16
Others

AP LA 2010 (May-June)
Predicted Seats and Vote Share

CPIM
No. of seats 132-142 70-80 52-60 1-2 9-12 12-17
won
13
TDP
26
TRS
PRP
33 CPI/CPIM
13 INC
3 12
Others
Note: The predictions are based on voters current assessment and disposition to vote for political
parties (without candidate names) and assuming that all parties contest across all ACs.

AP LA 2011 (January)
Predicted Seats and Vote Share
INC TDP TRS CPI/ PRP Jagans Others

CPIM YSR
No. of seats 28-33 32-37 70-74 1-2 3-4 139-153 10-15
won
18 TDP
35
TRS
PRP
CPI/CPIM
20 INC
5
16 1 5 Others
Jagans YSR
Note: The predictions are based on voters current assessment and disposition to vote for political parties (without
candidate names) and assuming that all parties contest across all ACs.

Seat Predictions – APLA (May-June 2010)
All parties contest INC TDP TRS CPI/ PRP Others
independently CPIM
No. of seats predicted 132-142 70-80 52-60 1-2 9-12 12-17

(All Andhra Pradesh)

CPIM
Telangana (119)
26-30 18-23 52-60 1-2 1-2 10-12
Regions

CPIM
Coastal Andhra (123)
72-76 34-40 - 0 7-10 2-4

CPIM
Rayalaseema (52)
33-36 15-17 - 0 1-2 0-1

Seat Predictions – APLA (January 2011)
All parties contest INC TDP TRS CPI/ PRP Jagans Others
independently CPIM YSR
No. of seats 28-33 32-37 70-74 0-1 2-4 139-153 10-14

predicted (AP)
294

CPIM YSR
Telangana
(119) 12-14 15-17 70-74 0-1 0 12-14 8-10
Regions

CPIM YSR
Coastal Andhra
(123) 12-14 14-16 - 0 2-4 87-94 0-2

CPIM YSR
Rayalaseema
(52) 3-5 3-5 - 0 0 41-45 1-2

Vote Share Predicted for APLA (May-June 2010)
Parties Contesting INC TDP TRS CPI/ PRP Others

CPIM
individually
All APLA 33% 26% 13% 3% 12% 13%
Vote Share
Telangana INC TDP TRS CPI/ PRP Others

CPIM
Vote Share 22% 18% 30% 5% 6% 19%

Regions
Coastal Andhra INC TDP TRS CPI/ PRP Others

CPIM
Vote Share 40% 32% - 2% 18% 8%
Rayalaseema INC TDP TRS CPI/ PRP Others

CPIM
Vote Share 47% 34% - 1% 10% 8%

Vote share Predictions – APLA (January 2011)
All parties contest INC TDP TRS CPI/ PRP Jagans Others
independently CPIM YSR
Vote share (%)

(All AP) 16 18 20 1 5 35 5

CPIM YSR
Vote share (%)
13 14 50 1 1 13 8
Telangana
Regions
Vote share (%) INC TDP TRS CPI/ PRP Jagans Others
CPIM YSR
Coastal Andhra 19 22 - 1 11 45 2
Vote share (%) INC TDP TRS CPI/ PRP Jagans Others
CPIM YSR
Rayalaseema 15 17 - 0 3 59 6

Summary
Government assessment
Public assessment of the Congress Government’s performance is poor and at its
the lowest level now as compared to all the previous assessments since 2007.
All the state level established parties - Congress, TDP and PRP are losing out
while TRS fighting for Telangana and the new party (to be launched) Jagans’ YSR
party are gaining popularity emerging stronger.
Leadership assessment
YS Jagan is emerging as the most popular leader post Dr.YSR. He is considered
amongst public as someone who would make the best CM after the next elections.
All leaders, except YS Jagan and KCR are losing ground. Congress loyalists
(although a smaller group) seem to be connecting with Mr.Kiran Kumar Reddy as
their leader.
Political Party Strengths
Congress seems to be losing ground across all regions, is likely to be relegated
to fourth position in the state in terms of vote share after Jagan’s, TRS, and TDP.
TDP is also losing ground after a modest revival post Dr.YSRs death again across
regions.
TRS has managed to gain significantly in Telangana at the cost of both Congress
and TDP.
PRP is losing ground and is likely to emerge as the weakest amongst all parties
across regions.

Thank you
37

Public Assessment of The Government Performance & Political Leadership in Andhra Pradesh

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Public Assessment of the

Government Performance & Political Leadership

Rachana Television Pvt. Ltd

Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company

Public Assessment of AP Government &

 Overall assessment of the performance of the current Congress Government

 Leadership assessment of the various political parties

 Likely political trends based on the current mood of the public

Public Assessment of AP Government &

We polled the public who met the following criteria -

Quotas were maintained to adequately represent

Public Assessment of AP Government &

• 75 Assembly Constituencies were chosen to be studied

Public Assessment of AP Government &

Public Assessment of AP Government &

12052 respondents were

FIELDWORK PERIOD : Jan 8th – Jan 17th

Public Assessment of AP Government &

Public Assessment of AP Government &

January 2011 INC Mean 3.37 3.05 2.1

A clear and a significant dip in the public assessment of Congress Government’s

Public Assessment of AP Government &

Overall Rayalaseema Telangana Costal Andhra

2008 2010 2011

Public assessment of the Congress Government across all the 3 regions is a

Public Assessment of AP Government &

January 2011 TDP Across Region

TOP TWO BOXES :

Very Good /Good

Overall Rayalaseema Telangana Costal Andhra

Assessment of TDP as an opposition has also dipped a marginal improvement in the

Base All Respondents :

Public Assessment of AP Government &

January 2011 PRP Across Region

TOP TWO BOXES :

Overall Rayalaseema Telangana Coastal Andhra

Base All Respondents :

2010-All-14102; Telangana-7196; Rayalseema-1920; Coastal Andhra-4986

Public Assessment of AP Government &

Base All Respondents :

Public Assessment of AP Government &

Rayalaseema Telangana Costal Andhra

It will survive and last its full term until 2014

There will be mid term elections

2011-All-12052; Telengana-5274; Rayalseema-1926; Coastal Andhra-4852

Public Assessment of AP Government &

Overall Rayalaseema Telangana Costal Andhra

Base All Respondents :

2011-All-12052; Telengana-5274; Rayalseema-1926; Coastal Andhra-4852

Public Assessment of AP Government &

Public Assessment of AP Government &

Public Assessment of AP Government &

Base All Respondents :

2011-All-12052; Telengana-5274; Rayalseema-1926; Coastal Andhra-4852

Public Assessment of AP Government &

Public Assessment of AP Government &

Although most of them feel there is no change

Base All Respondents : 2011-All-12052

Public Assessment of AP Government &

January 2011 May 2010

Present Future Present Future

Base All Respondents :

Public Assessment of AP Government &