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Treasury Economics Research
February 18, 2011
Budget FY12: Where is the headroom, Mr. Mukherjee?
Key expectations‐Budget FY12
FY11 fiscal deficit likely at 4.9% of GDP
Government to announce fiscal deficit close to medium‐term target of 4.8% of GDP in FY12 ;slippages likely to
push ratio to 5.1‐5.2% of GDP
Gross borrowings likely to be close to Rs 4,70,000 cr in FY12 against Rs 4,50,000 cr in FY11
No changes in excise duty rates but income tax exemption limit could be hiked from Rs 1,60,000 to Rs 2,00,000
CST could be trimmed to 1% and exemptions on specific products could be scaled back
Customs; excise duty on petroleum products could be reduced
Service tax net likely to be widened to include retail services, gas and water distribution, research and
experimental development
Food security bill implementation ;firm global commodity prices to keep subsidy bill elevated
Social sector to remain focal point for plan spending but unspent allocations from FY11 could curtail incremental
budgetary support in FY12
Schemes such as MGNREGS,Sarva Shiksha Abhyan ( Right to education),Bharat Nirman and Rajiv Gandhi
Vidyutikaran Yojana likely to get a leg up and additional emphasis likely on agricultural investment and supply
chain management.
Government to target disinvestments of Rs 40,000 cr in FY12
Recapitalization of RRBs to the tune of Rs 1,100 cr likely over FY11 and FY12
DTC;GST implementation unlikely before April,2012
Extension of profit‐linked tax incentives for infrastructure beyond March,2012
Finance reform bill likely to be pushed through
The budgeting process for FY12 is especially complicated by the string of risks that have emerged for the domestic
economy‐high inflation, a widening current account deficit, rising interest rates and perceptions of a “governance” deficit.
At this stage, there are two things that the Finance Minister can do to swing popular sentiment back in the government’s
favour. First, resurrect the reform and governance agenda. We can think of a number of things that could be done in this
regard‐‐ provide some clarity on the GST, articulate the government’s stance on allowing greater organized sector
(including foreign firms) participation in retail trade to squeeze intermediation margins and rein in prices as well as
discuss the options regarding black money. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, focus hard on fiscal consolidation.
A higher denominator will help the ratios but a bloated numerator will push up the ‘absolutes’
Pruning the fisc is tricky, especially when the economy is showing signs of a slowdown, cash‐guzzling social sector
projects are due to be announced and high commodity prices globally are likely to bloat the subsidy bill. There are some
comforts though to begin with, however superficial they may seem. For one, the upward revision of the GDP base (GDP
for FY11 is likely to be Rs 78,77,947 cr against Rs 69,34,700 cr assumed by the budget) should help fiscal ratios and is
likely to push the fiscal deficit for FY11 to 4.9% of GDP against the budgeted ratio of 5.5% (6.3% in FY10). This
denominator effect will continue to help in FY12. However, ratios can hide more than they reveal and what would matter,
at least to the financial markets, will be the absolute level of deficit. Thus despite a lower fiscal deficit to GDP ratio in
FY11, the absolute level of the deficit is actually likely to be slightly higher than the initial projections.
Going by this ‘absolute gauge’ FY12 could be worse. Large subsidy payouts and heavy social sector spending in FY12 in
the absence of one‐off revenue gains such as those amassed in the current year through the 3‐G and broadband wireless
auctions ( Rs 1,06,000 cr or 1.3% of GDP) is likely to mean that the absolute level of the deficit could be much higher than
FY11. We project a deficit number of Rs 4,65,863 cr in FY12 compared to Rs 3,87,498 cr in FY11. This could take the deficit
close to 5.1‐5.2% of GDP in FY12. We feel that this is a realistic estimate. However the government often tends to ‘under
budget’ in February and make adjustments through the year through supplementary demands. It is therefore likely that
the government will announce a deficit ratio close to its medium‐term target of 4.8% of GDP ( or Rs 4,34,863 cr) largely
by under‐budgeting for non‐plan spending.
The upshot is that market borrowings by the government in FY12 are likely to remain large and keep the upward bias on
interest rates intact. Our sense is that the government is likely to announce a gross borrowing target of close to Rs
4,70,000 cr ( slightly higher than the Rs 4,50,000 cr announced in FY11) but slippages from subsidy payouts over the course
of the year could see additional borrowings of as much as Rs 30,000 cr.
Table 1: Fiscal Deficit projections, FY11 and FY12
Budgeted Likely Scenario 1 Scenario 2
% Y‐o‐Y % Y‐o‐Y % Y‐o‐Y % Y‐o‐Y
Amt. in Rs crores FY11 growth FY11f growth FY12 growth FY12 growth
A.Total receipts ex borrowings (1+2) 722212 19.7 831652 37.7 905699 8.9 905699 8.9
1. Revenue Receipts 682212 18.2 786987 36.3 858699 9.1 858699 9.1
1.1 Tax Revenue (net to Centre) 534094 14.8 567869 22.1 695625 22.5 695625 22.5
1.2 Non‐tax Revenue 148118 32.0 219118 95.3 163074 ‐25.6 163074 ‐25.6
2. Capital Receipts ex borrowings 40000 49.4 44665 64.8 47000 5.2 47000 5.2
2.1.Other receipts 40000 54.1 44665 72.1 40000 ‐10.4 40000 ‐10.4
B. Total expenditure (3+4) 1108749 8.5 1219150 19.3 1340561 10.0 1371561 12.5
3.Non‐plan expenditure of which 735657 4.1 834843 18.2 911506 9.2 942506 12.9
3.1Interest payments 248664.0 13.3 248664 13.3 308028 23.9 308028 23.9
3.2 Subsidies 116224.0 ‐11.3 196224 49.8 137000 ‐30.2 168000 ‐14.4
3.2.1. Food 55578.2 ‐0.8 75578 35.0 60000 ‐20.6 70000 ‐7.4
3.2.2 Petroleum 3108.0 ‐79.2 38108 154.8 14000 ‐63.3 20000 ‐47.5
3.2.3. Fertilizers 49980.7 ‐5.7 74981 41.5 55000 ‐26.6 70000 ‐6.6
4. Plan expenditure 373092 18.4 389307 23.5 429056 10.2 429056 10.2
Fiscal deficit (A‐B) ‐386537 ‐387498 ‐434863 ‐465863
% of GDP ‐5.5 ‐4.9 ‐4.8 ‐5.1
GDP MP 7027945 7877947 9059639 9059639
% nominal growth 12.5 20.3 15.0 15.0
Source: Budget documents & HDFC Bank
Note: 1.Assuming average oil price of USD 90 per barrel and govt. share in subsidy at 33%.
2.Assuming de‐control of urea in FY12 for fertilizer subsidy bill.
3.Assuming Food security bill is implemented
4. Scenario 1 pertains to the targeted deficit likely to be announced in Budget FY12
5.Assuming ONGC FPO worth Rs 13,000 cr goes through in FY11
One‐off gains to cushion FY11 deficit as government spending gathers pace in March
While the fiscal deficit at present stands at a mere 45% of its budgeted target( April‐Decembre,2010) ,our sense is that a
pick up in government spending in March could even out the skew between the traction in revenue growth and
expenditure. Revenue growth between April‐December,2010 stood at 50% while growth in spending was substantially
lower at 11.3%. A large portion of the allocations made towards the two supplementary demand for grants passed over
the year( totaling close to Rs 74,000 cr) have yet to be spent and are likely to eat into the Rs 71,000 cr windfall to the
centre’s exchequer on account of the telecom auctions. Further, much of the gains from a higher than anticipated traction
in tax buoyancy ( the tax revenue target has been revised higher by Rs 37,000 cr) are likely to be allocated to incremental
outlay on subsidies through the third and final supplementary demand for grants . Additional payouts for oil subsidy for
instance could be close to Rs 21,000 cr 1 while that for fertilizer and food could be close to Rs 20,000 cr and Rs 10,000 cr
respectively. As a result, the absolute fiscal deficit for FY11 could be close to Rs 10,000 cr higher than the budgeted
target of Rs 3,81,408 cr taking the FY11 fiscal deficit ratio to 4.9%.
Social sector spending; large subsidy bill to weigh on FY12 fiscal balance
With FY12 unlikely to see the one‐off revenue gains made in the current fiscal year, fiscal consolidation is likely to be
difficult. Indeed, after adjusting the FY11 fiscal balance for the telecom auction windfall , the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio
is likely to have been close to 5.8%‐just a tad lower than the 6.3% ratio in FY10. Heavy social sector spending and a
large subsidy bill in the absence of comforts on the revenue side are likely to therefore make trimming the fiscal deficit a
challenging task. As indicated earlier, while it is entirely possible for the Finance Minister to show a fiscal deficit to GDP
ratio in line with the medium‐term target of 4.8% of GDP by under‐budgeting for non‐plan spending, our analysis reveals
that even after assuming fairly aggressive revenue and conservative expenditure projections, a ratio below 5.1‐5.2%
of GDP is unlikely ( assuming 15% nominal GDP growth in FY12). This is premised on the following:
1. Service tax net expansion and reduction in CST exemptions could continue to support tax buoyancy: We
assume tax buoyancy at 1.5‐a little higher than the 1.3 figure for the current fiscal year. While a cut in customs and
excise duty on petroleum products is likely (customs duty on petrol and diesel was hiked in FY11 to 7.5% and that for
crude to 5% while the excise duty on petroleum products was hiked by Re 1 per litre) to offset the upside pressures from
rising global crude prices it is likely that efforts to expand the service tax net ( to include services such as retail trade, gas
and water distribution, research and experimental development) as well as a cut in the CST ( from 2% to 1%) and the
scaling back of excise duty exemptions for some products (tax on consumer non‐durables such as breakfast cereal, cakes
and biscuits could be hiked from the current rate of 4%) could keep buoyancy supported. A reduction in excise duty from
the current rate of 10% as an anti‐inflationary tool is unlikely but the income tax exemption limit could be hiked to Rs
2,00,000 from Rs 1,60,000 in the run up to the implementation of the DTC. A moderation in nominal growth from 20% in
FY11 to 15% in FY12 is likely to however dampen growth in gross tax revenue from close to 25% in FY11 to 22% in
FY12 and downside risks to our forecast remain.
2. Non‐tax revenue to shrink while disinvestment related receipts could be close to FY11 levels: Absence of
revenue from the 3‐G and broadband wireless auctions is likely to pull down non‐tax revenue growth by 25%. We
target a disinvestment mop‐up of Rs 40,000 cr although this remains contingent on the state of the domestic financial
market. Were local equity markets to remain volatile, slippages to our FY12 fiscal deficit figure could get exaggerated. At
least 8‐9 PSUs have been identified for disinvestments in FY12 including IOC,MMTC and PFC. While there is some
indication that the Rs 13,000 cr ONGC FPO could go through this fiscal, delay in subsidy payout by the government could
dampen valuations and push the offer to next year.
3. Non‐plan spending likely to remain a drag: Non‐plan spending for FY11 is likely to overshoot the budgeted target
largely on account of a higher subsidy bill. Our sense is that non‐plan spending as a proportion of GDP is likely to be
close to 10.6% against the budgeted ratio of a mere 9.3% while the subsidy bill is likely to be close to 2.5% of GDP against
the budgeted ratio of 1.5% and 2% in FY10. While we assume a slight moderation in these ratios for FY12( we assume
non‐plan spending as a proportion of GDP at 10.4% and the subsidy bill at 2% of GDP), upside risks to our
projection remain. In particular, were the food security bill to be implemented, the subsidy bill could be upwards of Rs
75,000 cr 2 while de‐control of urea prices amidst firm global commodity prices could keep the fertilizer subsidy bill above
Rs 70,000 cr. Additionally, crude prices are unlikely to slip below the USD 85‐90 per barrel mark and this could mean a
petroleum subsidy bill of at least Rs 20,000 cr. 3
1 The government has already allocated Rs 8,000 cr and has promised another Rs 13,000 cr to OMCs for FY11. Under‐recoveries are
estimated at Rs 75,000 cr for FY11
2 The food security bill in its first phase aims to cover 72% of the population. Under the bill,35 kg of rice/wheat per family is to be provided
to BPL households (97 mn) while 25 kg per family of the same is to be supplied to APL households (89 mn)
3 Assuming government share in subsidy is 33%
4. Unspent allocations from FY11 could curtail incremental budgetary support to FY12 plan expenditure:
Given that 2011‐12 is the terminal year of the 11th five year plan, the focus will be to ramp up plan expenditure to meet
the plan target set in 2007‐08. Despite this, however, incremental allocations in FY12 are unlikely to be dramatically
large with allocations to several large schemes still to be fully utilized in the current fiscal year. The allocation for
MGNREGS for instance is likely to be kept flat –around the FY11 target of Rs 40,000 cr‐ despite rising wage payments
(wages under the scheme have been revised higher by 17‐30% from January, 2011). By the end of December, only Rs
20,854 cr had been spent under the scheme and the expectation is that the scheme could start FY12 with an opening
balance of Rs 10,000 cr. The status of several other large schemes is likely to be similar. After accounting for the gross
budgetary support targeted under the 11th five‐year plan( Rs 12,40,581 cr out of which Rs 8,51,388 cr have been allocated
during FY08‐FY11) we expect plan expenditure to increase by 15% in FY12. Social sector schemes such as MGNREGS,
Sarva Shiksha Abhyan ( Right to education), Bharat Nirman and Rajiv Gandhi Vidyutikaran Yojana are likely to remain
the core area of emphasis but additional stress could be laid on agricultural investment and supply‐chain management.
Government borrowings likely to remain “large”
While the government is likely to announce a fiscal deficit to GDP ratio of 4.8% in an effort to calm market sentiment, it
is unlikely to go a long way in ameliorating concerns on the market borrowing target. In particular:
Assuming that 92% of the fiscal deficit is likely to be funded through borrowings from the market and adjusting
for redemptions over the year, we expect net borrowing for FY12 at close to Rs 4,00,000 cr. This compares with
net borrowings of close to Rs 3,30,000 cr in FY11 implying even if the government targets a lower fiscal deficit
the absolute size of the borrowing programme will remain large. Further, additional slippages over the course
of the year (that will likely take the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio to at least 5.1‐5.2%) could mean a Rs 30,000 cr
increase.
Some offsets are likely though. We expect the government to close the fiscal year with cash balances of Rs
35,000‐40,000 cr with the RBI and a portion of this could be used to finance the fiscal deficit in FY12. A cash
draw‐down could therefore be used to trim the market borrowing programme. Additionally, the RBI could
undertake an OMO buyback programme ( the RBI bought back Rs 37,000 cr in FY11) to offset the net draft of the
government on the market.
Assuming some moderation in credit growth from the current rate of 23‐24% to 20‐21% in FY12, we target a yield of 8.50‐
8.60% on the 10‐yr benchmark G‐sec by March,2012.
Table 2: Market borrowing projections of the centre,FY12
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Amt in Rs crores FY10 FY11 FY12f FY12f
Fiscal deficit 414041 384369 434863 465863
as % of GDP ‐6.3 ‐4.9 ‐4.8 ‐5.1
Gross borrowings 418000 444000 469306 497516
Less redemptions 55590 112132 73581 73581
Net market borrowings 362410 331868 395725 423935
Source: RBI, Budget documents & HDFC Bank Note: Assuming market borrowings@92% of deficit
Treasury Economics Research Team
Abheek Barua,
Chief economist
Phone number: +91 (0) 124‐4664327
Email ID: abheek.barua@hdfcbank.com
Shivom Chakravarti,
Economist
Phone number: +91 (0) 124‐4664354
Email ID: shivom.chakravarti@hdfcbank.com
Jyotinder Kaur,
Economist
Phone number: +91 (0) 124‐4664338
Email ID: jyotinder.kaur@hdfcbank.com
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