國防大學理工學院國科所兵器工程組

課程：兵器系統效益評估

作業 20100914
學號：1030510404
姓名：周 宜 平
教授：王春和教授
24.2
(a) Find the probability distribution of X1, that is , Pxi(i)
Ans：
Px1(1)=P(ω1)＋P(ω2)=1/3＋1/5=8/15
Px1(2)=0
Px1(3)=0
Px1(4)= P(ω3)=3/10
Px1(5)= P(ω4)=1/6
(b) Find E(Xi)
Ans：
E(X1)=∑Xi×Px1(i)
=8/15×1＋3/10×4＋1/6×5
=77/30

(c) Find the probability distribution of the random varille X1+X2,

that is , Px1＋x2(i)
Ans：
Px1＋x2(2)=(1/3＋1/5)×(1/3＋1/5＋3/10)=4/9
Px1＋x2(3)=0
Px1＋x2(4)=0
Px1＋x2(5)=(3/10)×(1/3＋1/5＋3/10)=1/4
Px1＋x2(6)=(1/3＋1/5)×(1/6)＋(1/6)×(1/3＋1/5＋3/10)
=41/180
Px1＋x2(7)=0
Px1＋x2(8)=0
Px1＋x2(9)=(3/10)×(1/6)=1/20
Px1＋x2(10)=(1/6)×(1/6)=1/36
Checking calculation：
∑ Px1＋x2(i)=4/9＋1/4＋41/180＋1/20＋1/30＝1
24-6
(a)What is the probability that a tube will survive 250 hours of
operation ?
Ans：
The probability of the tube survive 250 hours is
fx(250)=0
Because the probability has been defined as an area under
the density function,P(x=c) will be taken to be zero for all values
of c. That means the this event can occur, but it occurs with the
probability zero.
But if the question is the tube will survive at least 250 hours, the
probability will be ：
P(x)=∫fx(y)dy=∫100/y2dy=－(100/∞－100/250)=0.4

2010/9/14