2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹

ⷨお᡹ਞgᅣ㾖㒣⌢gᑈᑺ᡹ਞ

2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

䏣Ϟ᳝⽣߽๲䭓П䏃

᡹ਞ㽕⚍ Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

™ ĀकѠѨāᓔਃĀ᳝⽣߽๲䭓āüü೑⇥᳈དഄߚѿ㒣⌢๲䭓ⱘ៤ᵰˈሙ⇥ 䇌ᓎ㢇
⬉䆱˖010-84588756
⍜䌍೼ GDPĀ㲟㊩āЁⱘӑ乱Ϟछ˗ᡩ䌘๲䭓ϡ‫ݡ‬ᰃЎњߎষˈ㗠ᰃЎњ
䚂ӊ˖zhujf@citics.com
⒵䎇᮹Ⲟ๲䭓ⱘ೑‫ݙ‬䳔∖˗䌘⑤ǃ㛑⑤⍜㗫䰡Ԣˈ㓓㡆Ԣ⺇ˈ⦃๗੠⫳⌏ક
ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010207100114
䋼ᕫࠄᬍ୘˗ᮄ݈ѻϮᅲ⦄䎼䍞ᓣথሩˈ⫳ѻ੠⫳⌏ᗻ᳡ࡵϮऴ᥂ѻϮЏᇐDŽ 
™ ϝ໻䳔∖‫ݡ‬ᑇ㸵ˈ֗䖯᳝⽣߽๲䭓DŽ⍜䌍乚䎥㒣⌢๲䭓ˈࢇࡼ᡹䝀↨䞡Ϟछ ᄭ〇ᄬ
⬉䆱˖010-84588015
ᦤछሙ⇥⍜䌍⥛ 2-3 Ͼⱒߚ⚍˗ᡩ䌘䕀ܹ‫ݙ‬䳔偅ࡼൟˈ催䪕ǃֱ䱰᠓ǃ㽓䚼 䚂ӊ˖sunwc@citics.com
ᓔথĀϝ㢅唤ᬒā˗ߎষ⬅Ā乎Ꮒ㄀ϔā䕀৥⽣߽Ӭ‫ˈܜ‬೑䰙ᬊᬃ䍟Ѣᑇ㸵ˈ ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010210010244
催ᡔᴃǃԢ㛑㗫ǃⶹ䆚ᆚ䲚ൟѻકߎষ↨䞡ᦤछDŽ
㘨㋏Ҏ˖ਈ⥝ゟ
™ ѻϮ㒧ᵘϝ㓈বᤶ˖ᎹϮব㓓ˈѻϮব䕏ˈᡔᴃᱎ㛑࣪DŽӴ㒳ࠊ䗴Ϯ⬅㉫ᬒ
⬉䆱˖010-84588230
๲䭓䕀৥㓓㡆๲䭓˗Ԣ⺇ൟǃᱎ᜻ഄ⧗ൟᮄ݈ѻϮᅲ⦄䎼䍞ᓣথሩˈ乘䅵ᑈ
䚂ӊ˖wuyl@citics.com
ഛ๲䭓䍙䖛 25%˗ජ䬛࣪ǃࠊᑺব䴽ˈҹঞࠊ䗴Ϯ᳡ࡵ࣪ˈ᥼ࡼ᳡ࡵϮ䖯ܹ

ᖿ䔺䘧ˈ乘䅵ᑈഛ๲䭓㑺 17%DŽ
㘨㋏Ҏ˖߬䳪ᵫ
™ 2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢೒᱃DŽϔ䏃䍄催ⱘ䗮㚔᳝ৃ㛑೼ 2011 ᑈথ⫳ᬍবˈ᯹㡖ৢ ⬉䆱˖010-84588023
䗮㚔Ϟछࡼ࡯ᇚ‫ޣ‬ᔅˈᘏԧϞਜ⦄ࠡ催ৢԢḐሔˈ乘䅵 2011 ᑈ CPI Ϟछ㑺 䚂ӊ˖liull@citics.com

3.8%DŽ᥻䗮㚔ӮĀ⡎⡆ā䚼ߚ๲䭓ˈԚ 2011 ᑈᰃĀकѠѨāᓔሔПᑈˈᮄ

ϔ䕂ᡩ䌘ਃࡼˈ⍜䌍┰㛑ᣕ㓁䞞ᬒˈᅣ㾖䇗᥻гᇚ㾚䗮㚔ব࣪㗠Ⳍᴎᡝᢽˈ 㘨㋏Ҏ˖䰜ᔎ݉
⬉䆱˖010-84420174
಴ℸˈ㒣⌢ֱᣕⳌᇍ䕗ᖿ๲䭓ҡᰃৃ㛑ⱘˈ乘䅵 2011 ᑈ GDP ๲䭓 9.5%DŽ
䚂ӊ˖chenqb@citics.com
™ ㋻㓽ᗻᬓㄪৃ㛑ਜ⦄Āࠡ㋻ৢᵒā䍄࢓DŽ乘䅵 2011 ᑈ䋻Ꮥֵ䌋๲䭓 16%Ꮊ
Ⳍ݇ⷨお
েˈᮄ๲䌋ℒ㑺 7.5 ϛғˈ䋻ᏕᬓㄪᘏԧϞЁᗻ‫أ‬㋻DŽ乘䅵ᬓㄪ࡯ᑺᇚḍ᥂
1.ljᅣ㾖㒣⌢ϧ乬üҢ೑䰙㒣偠ⳟЁ೑᠓
䗮㚔ব࣪㗠ࡼᗕᖂ䇗ˈ2011 ᑈᑈЁৃ㛑ᰃᬓㄪ䇗ᭈⱘ݇䬂ᯊ⚍ˈ៪಴䗮㚔
ѻ⿢ᬍ䴽NJ ................................. 2010-11
ಲ㨑㗠᳝᠔ᵒࡼˈҹ֗Փ㒣⌢ಲछDŽ
2.lj2010 ᑈಯᄷᑺᅣ㾖㒣⌢ሩᳯü䎼䍞Ԣ
Ёֵ䆕ࠌᅣ㾖㒣⌢乘⌟ ˄%˅ ⚍NJ .............................................2010-09
2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F
3.ljᅣ㾖㒣⌢ϧ乬üĀЁ೑᳡ࡵā䍊䍙ĀЁ
GDP 13.0 9.6 9.1 10.2 9.5
೑ࠊ䗴ā
NJ ...................................2010-08
CPI 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.3 3.8
PPI 3.1 6.9 -5.4 5.5 4.6 4.ljᅣ㾖㒣⌢ϧ乬üҢ᮹ᴀĀ‫ס‬๲䅵ߦā
ܼ⼒Ӯ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘 24.8 25.5 30.1 24.0 23.0 ⳟ៥೑ᬊܹߚ䜡ᬍ䴽NJ.............2010-08
⼒Ӯ⍜䌍ક䳊ଂ 16.8 21.6 15.5 18.5 18.0 5.lj2010 ᑈϟञᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯüᓔਃᮄ
ߎষ 25.6 17.2 -16.0 31.6 16.4 ๲䭓˖㒣⌢䕀ൟϢ㒧ᵘछ㑻NJ ..2010-07
䖯ষ 20.6 18.5 -15.7 38.8 18.7
߽⥛˄1 ᑈᳳᄬℒ˅ 4.14 2.52 2.25 2.75 3.25 6.ljᅣ㾖㒣⌢ϧ乬üֱ䱰᠓ᬓㄪৃ䙓‫ܡ‬㒣
∛⥛˄RMB/USD˅ 7.31 6.83 6.83 6.61 6.30 ⌢Ѡ⃵᥶ᑩNJ .............................2010-05

7.ljᅣ㾖㒣⌢ϧ乬ü䕀ൟ֗๲䭓NJ2010-03
20101Q 20102Q 20103Q 20104Q˄F˅ 20111Q˄F˅ 20112Q˄F˅ 20113Q˄F˅ 20114Q˄F˅ 8.ljᅣ㾖㒣⌢ϧ乬ü‫֗⿢ޣ‬䕀ൟNJ2010-02
GDP 11.9 10.3 9.6 9.0 8.7 9.1 9.8 10.2
CPI 2.2 2.9 3.5 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.8 2.9
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ ⊼˖ग़৆᭄᥂Ў㒳䅵ሔ݀Ꮧ᭄᥂

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

Ⳃ ᔩ

ϔǃᓩ㿔 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 1
Ѡǃ2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢೒᱃.......................................................................................................................................... 1
2.1 ᥻䗮㚔“⡎⡆”䚼ߚ๲䭓................................................................................................................................ 1
2.2 ᡩ䌘ᓩ᪢ߛᤶ ............................................................................................................................................... 2
2.3 ᳡ࡵࡽ᥼⍜䌍 ............................................................................................................................................... 6
2.4 ߎষ๲䭓Ёᵶϟ⿏ ....................................................................................................................................... 8
2.5 䗮㚔ϟञᑈᇚಲ㨑㟇ড়⧚∈ᑇ ................................................................................................................. 10
2.6 ⳌᇍӋḐ䇗ᭈϡӮᓩথ䭓ᳳ䗮㚔 ............................................................................................................. 14
ϝǃ㋻㓽ᗻᬓㄪৃ㛑ਜ⦄Āࠡ㋻ৢᵒā䍄࢓ ........................................................................................................ 20
3.1 䋻ᏕᬓㄪᑈЁ៪ᢽᴎᖂ䇗 ......................................................................................................................... 20
3.2 ⿃ᵕⱘ䋶ᬓᬓㄪᇚ䌃こܼᑈ ..................................................................................................................... 21
3.3 ѻϮᬓㄪ“㒘ড়ᓣ”ߎৄ.............................................................................................................................. 22
ಯǃ᳝⽣߽๲䭓ϟⱘϝ໻䳔∖ ................................................................................................................................ 23
4.1 ਞ߿Ԣ⽣߽๲䭓 ......................................................................................................................................... 23
4.2 ⍜䌍乚䎥๲䭓 ............................................................................................................................................. 25
4.3 ᡩ䌘䕀ܹ‫ݙ‬䳔ᇐ৥ ..................................................................................................................................... 31
4.4 ߎষҢ乎Ꮒ㄀ϔࠄ⽣߽Ӭ‫ ܜ‬..................................................................................................................... 37
Ѩǃ᳝⽣߽๲䭓ϟⱘѻϮᮄḐሔ ............................................................................................................................ 42
5.1 ѻϮ䕀ൟⱘ⦄ᅲ㚠᱃ ................................................................................................................................. 43
5.2 ѻϮ㒧ᵘϝ㓈䇗ᭈ˖ᎹϮব㓓ˈѻϮব䕏ˈᡔᴃᱎ㛑࣪...................................................................... 48
䰘ᔩ˖៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ 2015 ᑈࠡ᱃ሩᳯ .............................................................................................................. 54

ᦦ೒Ⳃᔩ

೒ 1˖2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢๲䭓Ϣ䗮㚔ࡼᗕ................................................................................................................... 2
೒ 2˖〇‫ֵⱘع‬䌋ᬓㄪᇐ㟈ᡩ䌘⬹᳝ϟ䰡................................................................................................................ 3
೒ 3˖᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘๲䗳ᇚᖿ䗳ಲ㨑............................................................................................................................ 4
೒ 4˖㺙໛ࠊ䗴ϮϢ㛑⑤ѻકࠊ䗴Ϯऴ↨䕗催........................................................................................................ 5
೒ 5˖ࠊ䗴Ϯߚ㉏ൟᡩ䌘๲䗳 ................................................................................................................................... 5
೒ 6˖亳કӋḐϞ⍼᥼ࡼ 2011 ᑈ‫ݰ‬Ϯᡩ䌘ࡴᖿ...................................................................................................... 5
೒ 7˖2011 ᑈᡩ䌘๲䗳ϸ๲ϸ‫ޣ‬............................................................................................................................... 6
೒ 8˖2011 ᑈಯ㉏ᡩ䌘ऴ↨ᚙ‫މ‬............................................................................................................................... 6
೒ 9˖2011 ᑈ䳊ଂ๲䗳ֱᣕ೼ 18%Ꮊে .................................................................................................................. 7
೒ 10˖⍜䌍ᇍ㒣⌢ⱘ䋵⤂⥛ᣕ㓁Ϟछ...................................................................................................................... 7
೒ 11˖令佂ᦤछ䗳ᑺ催Ѣଚક䳊ଂ.......................................................................................................................... 7

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2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 12˖ৃ䗝⍜䌍ક๲䗳Ϣ㒣⌢๲䗳᳈Ⳍ.................................................................................................................. 7
೒ 13˖Ѹ䗮ⱘᅠ୘ᇚ᥼ࡼᮙ␌⍜䌍๲䭓.................................................................................................................. 7
೒ 14˖䰶㒓䆒ᮑϢ⬉ᕅ⼼᠓ᬊܹⳌ䕙Ⳍ៤.............................................................................................................. 7
೒ 15˖Ё೑੠Ϫ⬠䋻⠽ߎষ๲䗳ⱘ催ᑺⳌ݇ᗻ...................................................................................................... 8
೒ 16˖㕢⃻᮹ⱘ㒣⌢๲䭓⥛乘⌟.............................................................................................................................. 8
೒ 17˖Ё೑ᇍЏ㽕䌌ᯧӭԈⱘߎষ↨䞡.................................................................................................................. 9
೒ 18˖Ё೑ǃᖋ೑ǃ᮹ᴀⱘ䌌ᯧ乎Ꮒऴ GDP ↨䞡................................................................................................ 9
೒ 19˖㕢೑䌌ᯧ䗚Ꮒ੠ᇍЁ೑䗚Ꮒᚙ‫މ‬................................................................................................................ 10
೒ 20˖2010-2011 ᑈ CPI ੠ PPI 䍄࢓乘⌟ ............................................................................................................. 10
೒ 21˖CPI Ϣ῵ᢳⱘ CPI ......................................................................................................................................... 11
೒ 22˖PPI Ϣ῵ᢳⱘ PPI.......................................................................................................................................... 11
೒ 23˖Ⳃࠡⱘ㒣⌢๲䗳ᑊϡᵘ៤ᯢᰒⱘ䗮㚔य़࡯................................................................................................ 11
೒ 24˖㒣⌢๲䭓ᬒ㓧‫ޣ‬㓧ࢇࡼկ∖य़࡯................................................................................................................ 11
೒ 25˖ܼ⧗㒣⌢๲䭓ᰃ໻ᅫଚકӋḐϞछⱘ෎⸔................................................................................................ 12
೒ 26˖㕢‫⥛∛ܗ‬Ϟछᇍ໻ᅫଚકӋḐ᳝ϔᅮⱘᡥࠊ............................................................................................ 12
೒ 27˖໻ᅫଚકӋḐϟ䰡᳝ࡽ㓧੠䕧ܹᗻ䗮㚔.................................................................................................... 12
೒ 28˖2010 ᑈ৘᳜ॳᴤ᭭ᑧᄬᣛ᭄催Ѣग़৆∈ᑇ............................................................................................... 12
೒ 29˖2010 ᑈ৘᳜亳ક㸠Ϯᑧᄬᣛ᭄催Ѣग़৆∈ᑇ........................................................................................... 13
೒ 30˖ӕϮ๲ࡴᑧᄬᢝࡼњ亳કӋḐϞछ............................................................................................................ 13
೒ 31˖⫳⣾ᄬᷣԢ⚍ 6 Ͼ᳜ৢ⣾Ӌϟ䎠................................................................................................................ 13
೒ 32˖㬀㦰ӋḐ⍼ᐙᇚ䗤ℹಲ㨑............................................................................................................................ 13
೒ 33˖亳કӋḐ਼ᳳϢ乘⌟ ................................................................................................................................... 14
೒ 34˖䋻Ꮥ๲䭓ᇍ䗮㚔乘ᳳѻ⫳ϔᅮᕅડ............................................................................................................ 14
೒ 35˖㒣⌢๲䭓ϟ䰡‫ޣ‬㓧Ꮉ䌘Ϟ⍼य़࡯................................................................................................................ 15
೒ 36˖Ꮉ䌘Ϟ⍼Џ㽕ᰃ䋻Ꮥ⦄䈵............................................................................................................................ 15
೒ 37˖᮹ᴀ䋻ᏕǃᎹ䌘Ϣ CPI ................................................................................................................................ 15
೒ 38˖03 ᑈ-09 ᑈ৘㸠ϮᎹ䌘⍼ᐙ ........................................................................................................................ 16
೒ 39˖03-09 ᑈ৘㸠ϮᎹ䌘⍼ᐙϢᎹ䌘ℷⳌ݇ ..................................................................................................... 16
೒ 40˖Ꮉ䌘Ϟ⍼Џ㽕ᰃ㸹ٓᗻⱘ............................................................................................................................ 17
೒ 41˖03 ᑈ-09 ᑈජᏖ⫳⌏ᖙ䳔કӋḐ⍼ᐙ ........................................................................................................ 17
೒ 42˖䖛এЁ೑Ꮉ䌘Ϟछᑊϡᰃ⠽ӋϞछⱘॳ಴................................................................................................ 17
೒ 43˖‫ݰ‬ѻકϢᎹϮѻકӋḐব࣪........................................................................................................................ 18
೒ 44˖2009 ᑈⳌᇍѢ 2003 ᑈⱘӋḐ∈ᑇ............................................................................................................. 18
೒ 45˖৘೑䋻Ꮥ๲䭓Ϣ䗮㚔 ................................................................................................................................... 19
೒ 46˖Ё೑䋻Ꮥᘏ䞣Ϣ⍜䌍⠽Ӌ∈ᑇ.................................................................................................................... 19
೒ 47˖〇‫ⱘع‬䋻Ꮥᬓㄪᇚ䱣ⴔ䗮㚔य़࡯ⱘব࣪㗠ᖂ䇗........................................................................................ 20
೒ 48˖ֵ䌋㡖༣ᇚ䱣䗮㚔य़࡯㗠䇗ᭈ.................................................................................................................... 20
೒ 49˖ֱᣕ⠽ӋⳌᇍᑇ〇䳔㽕㓈ᣕℷ߽⥛............................................................................................................ 21
೒ 50˖ӕϮⲜ߽䖒ࠄ䕗催∈ᑇ................................................................................................................................ 21
೒ 51˖Ҏ⇥Ꮥᇚֱᣕᑈഛछؐ 5%Ꮊে ................................................................................................................. 21
೒ 52˖㒻㓁ᅲᮑ⿃ᵕⱘ䋶ᬓᬓㄪ............................................................................................................................ 21
೒ 53˖䋶ᬓ䌸ᄫϢ㒣⌢๲䭓 ................................................................................................................................... 21

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 54˖乎Ꮒ‫ޣ‬ᇥˈሙ⇥ᬊܹᦤछ............................................................................................................................ 23
೒ 55˖ࢇࡼ᡹䝀ᏺࡼሙ⇥⍜䌍↨䞡ᦤछ................................................................................................................ 23
೒ 56˖៥೑ऩԡ GDP 㗫㛑‫أ‬催.............................................................................................................................. 24
೒ 57˖៥೑໻໮᭄␪⊞∈ᑧ䛑໘Ѣ∈䋼᳔Ꮒⱘࡷč㑻............................................................................................ 24
೒ 58˖ऩԡ㛑㗫䰡Ԣ ............................................................................................................................................... 24
೒ 59˖೼᳝⮙ϡԣ䰶ⱘሙ 70%ҹϞⱘ↨՟ᰃ⬅Ѣ㒣⌢ೄ䲒.................................................................................. 24
೒ 60˖ሙ⇥⫳⌏∈ᑇᦤछֵᖗ䳔㽕ᦤछ................................................................................................................ 24
೒ 61˖៥೑Ⳍᇍࢇࡼ៤ᴀ೼ϟ䰡............................................................................................................................ 25
೒ 62˖2010 ᑈҹ᳔ࠡԢᎹ䌘⍼ᐙԢѢ GDP ๲䗳................................................................................................. 25
೒ 63˖៥೑ሙ⇥⍜䌍Ⳍ↨݊Ҫ೑ᆊᯢᰒ‫أ‬Ԣ........................................................................................................ 25
೒ 64˖៥೑Ꮖ㒣ℹܹ⍜䌍⥛ᦤछⱘ䰊↉................................................................................................................ 26
೒ 65˖៥೑৘ⳕҎഛජᏖ䘧䏃䴶⿃੠Ҏഛ≑䔺ᢹ᳝䞣៤ℷ↨ .................................................................................. 26
೒ 66˖䘧䏃Ѹ䗮ᓎ䆒᮹䍟ᅠ୘................................................................................................................................ 26
೒ 67˖2011 ᑈৢ៥೑ⱘࢇࡼҎষ↨䞡ᇚߎ⦄ϟ䰡............................................................................................... 27
೒ 68˖ህϮᏖഎ⬅Ā໻ᄺ⫳կ㒭ϡ䎇ā䕀ЎĀ⇥Ꮉ㤦ā.................................................................................... 27
೒ 69˖ᔧࠡࢇࡼ࡯կ∖⶯ⳒЏ㽕䲚Ё೼Ԣッቫԡ................................................................................................ 27
೒ 70˖៥೑催㋴䋼Ҏᠡկ㒭‫ܙ‬䎇............................................................................................................................ 28
೒ 71˖↣ 100 ৡࢇࡼ㗙Ёফ䖛催ㄝᬭ㚆ⱘҎ᭄.................................................................................................... 28
೒ 72˖៥೑ए⭫կ㒭Ϲ䞡ϡ䎇................................................................................................................................ 28
೒ 73˖៥೑ⱘए⭫Ҏਬկ㒭㔎ষᕜ໻.................................................................................................................... 29
೒ 74˖ए⭫⍜䌍կ㒭Ϲ䞡ϡ䎇................................................................................................................................ 29
೒ 75˖ए⭫կ㒭≵᳝䎳ϞҎষ㗕啘࣪.................................................................................................................... 29
೒ 76˖‫ݏ‬㗕᳡ࡵҎਬկ㒭Ϲ䞡ⷁ㔎........................................................................................................................ 29
೒ 77˖᳡ࡵϮЁⱘࢇࡼ᡹䝀↨䞡ᯢᰒ催ѢᎹϮ䚼䮼............................................................................................ 30
೒ 78˖៥೑ⱘࢇࡼ᡹䝀੠᳔㒜⍜䌍↨䞡䍄࢓催ᑺϔ㟈........................................................................................ 30
೒ 79˖Ё೑ሙ⇥⍜䌍㒧ᵘⳌᇍ䶽೑ⱘᏂᓖ............................................................................................................ 31
೒ 80˖Ё೑ሙ⇥⍜䌍㒧ᵘⳌᇍ᮹ᴀⱘᏂᓖ............................................................................................................ 31
೒ 81˖᳾ᴹ 5 ᑈ៥೑ 20-30 ቕҎষ੠ 65 ቕҹϞⱘ㗕啘Ҏষ↨䞡ᇚ䕗ᖿᦤ催................................................... 31
೒ 82˖෎ᓎᡩ䌘䖯ܹᑇ〇ᖿ䗳থሩᳳ.................................................................................................................... 32
೒ 83˖䪕䏃ᡩ䌘Ꮖ䖒ࠄϔᅮ㾘῵............................................................................................................................ 32
೒ 84˖催䪕ᡩ䌘໻༈೼ĀकѠѨā........................................................................................................................ 33
೒ 85˖䪕䏃ᡩ䌘๲䗳〇Ё᳝छ................................................................................................................................ 33
೒ 86˖Ё䭓ᳳ催䪕㾘ߦ ........................................................................................................................................... 33
೒ 87˖ⷁᳳ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘㓈ᣕ催ԡ............................................................................................................................ 34
೒ 88˖᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘ᇍᭈԧᡩ䌘ⱘ䋵⤂⥛䖒ࠄ 34.5% ............................................................................................ 34
೒ 89˖2009 ᑈҹֱࠡ䱰᠓ᡩ䌘ऴ↨䕗ᇣ............................................................................................................... 34
೒ 90˖Ё㽓䚼ࢇࡼ࡯៤ᴀӬ࢓ߌᰒ........................................................................................................................ 35
೒ 91˖ϰ䚼ೳഄӋḐ䖰催ѢЁ㽓䚼........................................................................................................................ 35
೒ 92˖㽓䚼ഄऎᎹϮ↯߽⥛䕗催............................................................................................................................ 35
೒ 93˖䖥 5 ᑈ๲䗳᳔ᖿⱘकϾ FDI ഄऎ ............................................................................................................... 35
೒ 94˖“कѠѨ”ᳳ䯈ᡩ䌘๲䗳ᇚ᳝᠔ಲ㨑 ............................................................................................................ 37
೒ 95˖៥೑ᎹϮࠊ៤કऴߎষ↨䞡........................................................................................................................ 38

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 96˖2009 ᑈ৘೑ᎹϮࠊ៤કऴߎষ乱↨䞡....................................................................................................... 38
೒ 97˖៥೑᳡㺙ߎষऴϪ⬠ӑ乱............................................................................................................................ 38
೒ 98˖催䰘ࡴؐᎹϮࠊ៤કऴߎষӑ乱ϡᮁϞछ................................................................................................ 39
೒ 99˖Ҏ⇥Ꮥⳳᅲ᳝ᬜ∛⥛ ˄2005=100˅ ......................................................................................................... 39
೒ 100˖Ё೑ⱘࢇࡼ࡯বᕫ䌉䞡䍋ᴹ...................................................................................................................... 40
೒ 101˖Ё೑ⱘ䌌ᯧ乎Ꮒ ......................................................................................................................................... 40
೒ 102˖2009 ᑈ৘೑ଚϮ᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧߎষ乱ऴϪ⬠ᘏ䞣ⱘ↨䞡............................................................................. 41
೒ 103˖߱㑻ѻકǃⷓѻકऴ៥೑䖯ষ乱↨䞡...................................................................................................... 42
೒ 104˖Ё೑㊂亳䖯ষߎষऴϪ⬠ᘏ䞣ⱘӑ乱...................................................................................................... 42
೒ 105˖᳾ᴹ 5 ᑈѻϮ䇗ᭈḐሔሩᳯ...................................................................................................................... 42
೒ 106˖៥೑∈䌘⑤⫳ѻ⥛ᯢᰒ‫أ‬Ԣ...................................................................................................................... 43
೒ 107˖৘೑ CO2 ᥦᬒ䞣ऴ↨ ................................................................................................................................. 44
೒ 108˖ѻϮ㒧ᵘᰃᇐ㟈䌘⑤㑺ᴳ⫊乜᮹Ⲟࡴ࠻ⱘЏ㽕ॳ಴.............................................................................. 44
೒ 109˖᮹ᴀࢇࡼ࡯Ꮉ䌘Ϟछ֗䖯⍜䌍᳡ࡵϮ...................................................................................................... 45
೒ 110˖᮹ᴀࢇࡼ࡯Ꮉ䌘Ϟछ֗䖯⍜䌍ࠊ䗴Ϯ...................................................................................................... 45
೒ 111˖ܼ㽕㋴⫳ѻ⥛˄TFP˅ߚ㾷 ....................................................................................................................... 46
೒ 112˖6 ໻㒣⌢ԧᡔᴃᬜ⥛ব࣪˄TE˅ .............................................................................................................. 46
೒ 113˖ᡔᴃ䖯ℹ˄TP˅ব࣪ ................................................................................................................................. 46
೒ 114˖ܼ㽕㋴⫳ѻ⥛˄TFP˅ব࣪....................................................................................................................... 46
೒ 115˖Џ㽕೑ᆊܼ㽕㋴⫳ѻ⥛˄TFP˅ব࣪੠ᡔᴃ䖯ℹ˄TP˅....................................................................... 46
೒ 116˖៥೑䌘⑤ᆚ䲚ൟ㸠Ϯⱘ䌌ᯧゲѝӬ࢓䗤ℹࠞᔅ.......................................................................................... 47
೒ 117˖៥೑ࠊ䗴Ϯ䌌ᯧゲѝ࡯ᣛ᭄䗤ℹᦤछ...................................................................................................... 47
೒ 118˖ডؒ䫔ゟḜ䇗ᶹ੠᳔㒜㺕‫އ‬᭄䞣〇Ё᳝๲.............................................................................................. 47
೒ 119˖᮹ᴀᴎẄ㸠Ϯ‫ݙ‬䳔ऴܼ䚼䳔∖↨䞡䍙䖛 60%.......................................................................................... 47
೒ 120˖ѻϮ㒧ᵘ䕀ব˖ᵘᓎᮄⱘѻϮԧ㋏.......................................................................................................... 48
೒ 121˖ѻϮᖂュ᳆㒓 ............................................................................................................................................. 49
೒ 122˖៥೑ᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ⥛Ў 26.5%ˈ䖰ԢѢথ䖒೑ᆊ 35%-40%ⱘᑇഛ∈ᑇ.................................................. 50
೒ 123˖ᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ⥛⬅ 26.5%ᦤछ㟇 30%Ꮊে .................................................................................................. 51
೒ 124˖Ӵ㒳ࠊ䗴Ϯऩԡѻؐ㛑㗫ᯢᰒϟ䰡ˈ乘䅵 2015 ᑈᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ㛑㗫䕗 2010 ᑈϟ䰡 20% .................. 51
೒ 125˖2011-2015 ᑈ᳡ࡵϮ๲ࡴؐऴ GDP ↨䞡ᦤ催 4% ................................................................................... 53
೒ 126˖2011-2015 ᑈ᳡ࡵϮህϮ↨䞡ᦤ催㑺 5% ................................................................................................. 53
೒ 127˖Ё೑⾳䌕੠ଚࡵ᳡ࡵϮࡴ䗳থሩ.............................................................................................................. 53
೒ 128˖೑‫ݙ‬ሙ⇥䳔∖ᢝࡼᮙ␌Ϯ㸠Ϯᖿ䗳থሩ.................................................................................................. 53
೒ 129˖᭛࣪߯ᛣѻϮ๲䗳䍙䖛 20% ..................................................................................................................... 54
೒ 130˖乘䅵 2010-2015 ᑈජᏖൗഒ໘⧚⬅ 69%ᦤ催㟇 80%ˈ㜅⸿ǃ㜅∂ㄝ໻⇨∵ᶧ໘⧚ѻϮᑈഛ๲䭓⥛
15%-20% ..................................................................................................................................................... 55
೒ 131˖乘䅵 2010-2015 ᑈ∵∈໘⧚⥛⬅ 70%ᦤ催ࠄ 80%ˈ∵∈໘⧚ಲᬊ߽⫼⥛⬅ 8.5%ᦤछࠄ 10%ˈ∵∈໘
⧚ѻϮᑈ๲䭓⥛ 20% ................................................................................................................................. 55
೒ 132˖ܼ⧗⦃ֱѻϮᏖഎ㾘῵๲䭓䍟࢓ঞ㸠Ϯ㒧ᵘ.......................................................................................... 55
೒ 133˖㡖㛑⦃ֱ᳡ࡵᬊܹ䍙䖛⦃ֱѻકᬊܹ๲䭓.............................................................................................. 55
೒ 134˖
ĀकѠѨāܼ೑⼒Ӯ⦃ֱᡩ䌘ᘏ乱㑺Ў 3.1 ϛғ‫ˈܗ‬ऴ GDP ↨䞡ᦤ催㟇 1.6%Ꮊে ................................ 56
೒ 135˖2009 ᑈЁ೑㛑⑤㒧ᵘ ................................................................................................................................ 57

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 136˖2015 ᑈЁ೑㛑⑤㒧ᵘሩᳯ............................................................................................................................ 57
೒ 137˖2010-2015 ᑈ䴲⷇࣪㛑⑤⍜䌍ᑈഛ๲䗳 12.9%ˈ亢㛑ǃ໾䰇㛑੠⫳⠽䋼㛑ᑈഛ๲䗳ᇚ᥹䖥 29% .... 57
೒ 138˖2011-2020 ᑈ໾䰇㛑Ḍ㛑੠亢㛑ѻؐ㾘῵................................................................................................... 57
೒ 139˖Ё೑䴲⷇࣪㛑⑤↨䞡ᯢᰒԢѢথ䖒೑ᆊ.................................................................................................. 57
೒ 140˖⏋ড়ࡼ࡯≑䔺ᑈഛ๲䗳 58% ..................................................................................................................... 58
೒ 141˖㒃⬉ࡼ≑䔺ᑈഛ๲䗳 37% ......................................................................................................................... 58
೒ 142˖➗᭭⬉∴≑䔺໡ড়๲䗳 10% ..................................................................................................................... 58
೒ 143˖ܼ⧗ѥ䅵ㅫᏖഎ㾘῵ᑈഛ๲䭓 26% ......................................................................................................... 58
೒ 144˖ѥ䅵ㅫᏖഎᇚ៤Ў䕃ӊѻϮ๲䭓᳔ᖿⱘ㒚ߚᏖഎПϔ .................................................................................. 58
೒ 145˖Ё೑㺙໛㸠Ϯ๲ࡴؐϡᮁ๲䭓ˈऴ GDP ↨䞡ᦤछ................................................................................ 59
೒ 146˖2009 ᑈ⍋⋟ѻϮѻؐऴ GDP ↨䞡䍙䖛 9.55% ....................................................................................... 61
೒ 147˖⍋⋟乚ඳ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ.......................................................................................................................... 61
೒ 148˖Џ㽕⍋⋟ѻϮথሩᚙ‫މ‬.............................................................................................................................. 61

㸼ḐⳂᔩ

㸼 1˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌᅣ㾖㒣⌢乘⌟ ................................................................................................................................... 2
㸼 2˖2011 ᑈ Ё೑㒣⌢๲䭓ࡼ࡯ߚ㾷..................................................................................................................... 2
㸼 3˖2010-2020 ᑈ䪕䏃ᓎ䆒シᎹ䞠⿟ᚙ‫ މ‬............................................................................................................. 3
㸼 4˖03-09 ᑈ৘㸠ϮᎹ䌘⍼ᐙϢᎹ䌘 ................................................................................................................... 16
㸼 5˖ᬓᑰ᥻ࠊ݀݅ѻકऴ CPI ↨䞡 ..................................................................................................................... 19
㸼 6˖ࢇࡼ࡯կ∖⶯ⳒЏ㽕䲚Ё೼Ԣッቫԡ.......................................................................................................... 27
㸼 7˖៥೑ⱘए⭫‫ݏ‬㗕䌘⑤㔎ষᕜ໻...................................................................................................................... 28
㸼 8˖Ā䗖ᑺ䍙ࠡāᰃĀकѠѨāѸ䖤ᓎ䆒݇䬂䆡................................................................................................ 32
㸼 9˖ߚऎඳ催䗳݀䏃㾘ߦ ..................................................................................................................................... 32
㸼 10˖䖥ϸᑈ৘㸠ϮህϮবࡼᚙ‫މ‬........................................................................................................................ 36
㸼 11˖៥೑ᎹϮ㛑⑤⍜㗫䞣ԡሙϪ⬠㄀ϔ............................................................................................................... 43
㸼 12˖៥೑ CO2 ᥦᬒᘏ䞣ԡሙϪ⬠㄀Ѡ ............................................................................................................... 44
㸼 13˖Ԣ⺇㒣⌢ㄝᮄ݈ѻϮᰃ᳾ᴹϪ⬠৘೑ゲѝⱘᮄ⛺⚍................................................................................ 45
㸼 14˖᳾ᴹ 5-10 ᑈӴ㒳ࠊ䗴Ϯᭈড়ᇚӮࡴ䗳ˈ᳝ᳯপᕫᅲ䋼ᗻさ⸈............................................................... 49
㸼 15˖ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈ᵘᓎ⎬≄㨑ৢѻ㛑ⱘ䭓ᬜᴎࠊˈᔎ࣪㑺ᴳᗻᷛ‫ࠊⱘޚ‬ᅮ੠ᅲᮑ .................................. 50
㸼 16˖ֵᙃ࣪᱂ঞ⥛ᦤ催üüᎹϮ⫼ᴎ఼Ҏ᭄.................................................................................................... 51
㸼 17˖Ԣ⺇ൟǃᱎ᜻ഄ⧗ൟᮄ݈ѻϮᅲ⦄䎼䍞ᓣথሩ........................................................................................ 52
㸼 18˖䞡⚍㸠Ϯ乚ඳᡩ䌘䳔∖乘⌟........................................................................................................................ 56
㸼 19˖催ッ㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ哧ࢅ㉏㒚ߚ㸠Ϯ៪乚ඳ.................................................................................................... 59
㸼 20˖ᮄᴤ᭭哧ࢅ㉏㒚ߚ㸠Ϯ៪乚ඳ.................................................................................................................... 60
㸼 21˖⫳⠽ѻϮ哧ࢅ㉏㒚ߚ㸠Ϯ៪乚ඳ................................................................................................................ 60
㸼 22˖⍋⋟ѻϮথሩ㾘ߦ ....................................................................................................................................... 61

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

ϔǃᓩ㿔
ेᇚ᣹߿ⱘ 2010 ᑈˈᰃЁ೑㒣⌢໡ᴖ໮বǃ䎠ᅩ䍋ӣⱘϔᑈDŽϔᄷᑺᢙᖗ㒣⌢Ā䖛⛁ā
˗Ѡᄷᑺᖻ㰥㒣
⌢ĀѠ⃵᥶ᑩā˗ϝᄷᑺᨚ㜅๲䭓ϟ⒥䰈䴒ǃ㒣⌢ӕ〇ಲछ˗ಯᄷᑺজᮟे䱋ܹ䗮㚔ࡴ࠻ᛕѥˈ⬅ℸᓩথ䇗
᥻᥾ᮑ໮ㅵ唤ϟˈᦤ催ᄬℒ‫ޚ‬໛䞥⥛ǃࡴᙃǃߎৄ⠽Ӌ᥻ࠊĀ೑ 16 ᴵāDŽব࣪ПᖿǃডᏂП໻ˈᇍᏖഎ‫ߏކ‬
Пᔎ⚜ˈЎ䖥ᑈ᠔㔩㾕DŽ

⦄೼ˈ៥Ӏህᇚ䖜ܹ 2011 ᑈDŽ䙷М᳾ᴹϔᑈЁ೑㒣⌢জᇚབԩⓨ㒢ˈ䗮㚔Ӯ༅᥻৫ˈ๲䭓ಲछ࢓༈Ӯ

಴᥻䗮㚔㗠䗚䕀৫˛2011 ᑈᰃĀकѠѨā㾘ߦⱘᓔሔПᑈˈĀकѠѨā㾘ߦᇚᓔਃҔМḋⱘ๲䭓೒᱃ˈ᳾ᴹ
ѨᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ⱘࡼ࡯ᴹ㞾ԩᮍ˛

៥Ӏⱘⳟ⊩ᰃ˖

ህⷁᳳ㗠㿔ˈⳂࠡϔ䏃䍄催ⱘ䗮䋻㝼㚔᳝ৃ㛑೼ 2011 ᑈথ⫳ᬍবˈ᯹㡖ৢ䗮㚔Ϟछࡼ࡯ᇚ‫ޣ‬ᔅˈᘏԧ

Ϟਜ⦄ࠡ催ৢԢḐሔˈ乘䅵 2011 ᑈ CPI Ϟछ㑺 3.8%DŽ᥻䗮㚔ӮĀ⡎⡆ā䚼ߚ๲䭓ˈԚ 2011 ᑈᰃĀकѠѨā
ᓔሔПᑈˈᮄϔ䕂ᡩ䌘ਃࡼˈ⍜䌍┰㛑ᣕ㓁䞞ᬒˈᅣ㾖䇗᥻гᇚ㾚䗮㚔ব࣪㗠Ⳍᴎᡝᢽˈ಴ℸˈ㒣⌢ֱᣕⳌ
ᇍ䕗ᖿ๲䭓ҡᰃৃ㛑ⱘˈ乘䅵 2011 ᑈ GDP ๲䭓 9.5%DŽ

ሩᳯĀकѠѨāˈЁ೑㒣⌢ᇚ䖜৥Ā᳝⽣߽๲䭓āDŽ䖛এ 20 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢催䗳๲䭓ˈ៤ህВϪ⵽ⳂˈԚ㕢
Ёϡ䎇ⱘᰃ೑⇥⽣߽ᑊ≵᳝ᕫࠄৠㄝᐙᑺⱘᦤ催DŽϔᮍ䴶ˈሙ⇥ᬊܹ๲䭓㓧᜶ˈ⍜䌍⒲ৢˈ೑⇥≵᳝‫ߚߚܙ‬
ѿ㒣⌢๲䭓ⱘ៤ᵰ˗঺ϔᮍ䴶ˈ㒣⌢๲䭓Ҭߎњᕜ催ⱘ䌘⑤ǃ⦃๗ҷӋDŽᅲ䰙Ϟˈ䖭ᰃϔ⾡䕗Ԣ⽣߽ⱘ๲䭓ˈ
ĀकѠѨā㾘ߦᇚᬍব䖭⾡ĀԢ⽣߽๲䭓ā⢊ᗕDŽ

ҢĀԢ⽣߽๲䭓āࠄĀ᳝⽣߽๲䭓āˈ䖭ᰃϔϾ‫݋‬᳝ߦᯊҷᛣНⱘ䞡໻䕀বDŽ
Ā᳝⽣߽๲䭓āᛣੇⴔˈ೑
⇥ᇚ‫ߚܙ‬ѿফ㒣⌢থሩ៤ᵰˈሙ⇥ᬊܹᇚᕫࠄ᳈ᖿᦤछˈ䳔∖Ḑሔᇚ᳈ࡴഛ㸵ˈ೑⇥⽣߽ᦤ催ᇚ䍙䍞㒣⌢๲
䭓˗ѻϮ㒧ᵘᇚ䖯ϔℹӬ࣪ˈӴ㒳ࠊ䗴Ϯ⬅㉫ᬒ๲䭓䕀৥㓓㡆๲䭓ˈԢ⺇ൟǃᱎ᜻ൟᮄ݈ѻϮᇚᅲ⦄䎼䍞ᓣ
থሩˈফⲞѢජ䬛࣪੠ࠊᑺব䴽ˈ᳡ࡵϮথሩ䖯ܹᖿ䔺䘧DŽ

Ѡǃ2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢೒᱃

2.1 ᥻䗮㚔Ā⡎⡆ā䚼ߚ๲䭓

᥻䗮㚔Ꮖᰃ᳔䞡㽕ᬓㄪ䗝乍DŽ2010 ᑈҹᴹˈ䗮㚔∈ᑇϡᮁϞछˈ㟇 11 ᳜ CPI Ꮖ䖒ࠄ 5.1%ˈ䗮㚔Ꮖ㒣

↨䕗Ϲ䞡ˈড䗮㚔࢓೼ᖙ㸠ˈ乘䅵ᅣ㾖ᬓㄪˈ⡍߿ᰃ䋻Ꮥᬓㄪˈᇚᯢᰒᬊ㋻DŽⷁᳳ䗮㚔य़࡯ձ✊↨䕗໻ˈԚ
ᰃ೼ᬓㄪࡴᔎ䇗᥻ⱘᚙ‫މ‬ϟˈ⠽ӋϞछⱘय़࡯೼᯹㡖ৢᇚ᳝᠔‫ޣ‬㓧DŽ乘䅵 2010 ᑈܼᑈ CPI Ϟछ 3.3%ˈ2011
ᑈ CPI Ϟछ 3.8%ˈ݊ЁϞञᑈ CPI ೼ 4%ҹϞˈϟञᑈ䗮㚔य़࡯ᇚ᳝䕀ᡬᗻব࣪ˈᑈᑩಲ㨑㟇 3%ᎺেDŽ

᥻䗮㚔ӮĀ⡎⡆ā䚼ߚ㒣⌢๲䭓DŽ乘䅵 2011 ᑈ㒣⌢๲䗳ᇚ೼ 2010 ᑈⱘ 10.2%ಲ㨑㟇ⱘ 9.5%Ꮊেˈ೼

ড䗮㚔ⱘय़࡯ϟˈϞञᑈ㒣⌢๲䭓ᇚফࠄϔᅮⱘᡥࠊˈ2011 ᑈ㄀ϔᄷᑺ GDP ๲䗳ᇚ䕗 2010 ᑈ㄀ಯᄷᑺ๲䗳
᳝᠔ᬒ㓧˗䱣ⴔ䗮㚔᳝᠔ᬒ㓧ˈGDP ๲䗳ᇚ᳝᠔ಲछˈGDP ๲䭓ᇚਜ⦄ࠡԢৢ催ⱘ䍄࢓DŽ

2011 ᑈ㒣⌢๲䭓ⱘᢝࡼ࡯ᇚЏ㽕ᴹ㞾Ѣ‫ݙ‬䳔๲䭓DŽ⬅Ѣ 2011 ᑈܼ⧗㒣⌢๲䭓ᇚ↨ 2010 ᑈ᳝᠔䰡Ԣˈ

Ё೑ߎষ๲䗳ᇚ᳝᠔ϟ䰡ˈᬙߎষᇍ๲䭓ⱘ䋵⤂гᇚϟ䰡ˈሑㅵ䖬ᄬ೼䕗໻㾘῵乎ᏂˈԚᰃᇍ๲䭓ⱘ䋵⤂ᇚ
䕀Ў䋳ⱘDŽሑㅵᰃĀकѠѨāᓔሔПᑈˈԚ⬅Ѣ䗮㚔य़࡯↨䕗໻ˈ䋻Ꮥֵ䌋ᬓㄪᇚ᳝᠔ᬊ㋻ˈ಴ℸᡩ䌘๲䗳
ҡᇚ⬹᳝ಲ㨑ˈᡩ䌘ᇍ㒣⌢๲䭓ⱘᢝࡼᇚϟ䰡˗⬅Ѣ哧ࢅ⍜䌍ⱘᬓㄪ੠⍜䌍┰㛑䞞ᬒˈ⍜䌍๲䭓᳝ᳯֱᣕᑇ
〇ˈᇍ㒣⌢ⱘᢝࡼ԰⫼Ⳍᇍ〇ᅮDŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 1
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 1˖2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢๲䭓Ϣ䗮㚔ࡼᗕ ˄%˅

GDP CPI˄ে˅
16 10
乘
⌟ 8
14
6
12
4
10
2
8 0

6 -2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㸼 1˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌᅣ㾖㒣⌢乘⌟ ˄%˅
2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F
GDP 13.0 9.6 9.1 10.2 9.5
CPI 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.3 3.8
PPI 3.1 6.9 -5.4 5.5 4.6
ܼ⼒Ӯ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘 24.8 25.5 30.1 24.0 23.0
⼒Ӯ⍜䌍ક䳊ଂ 16.8 21.6 15.5 18.5 18.0
ߎষ 25.6 17.2 -16.0 31.6 16.4
䖯ষ 20.6 18.5 -15.7 38.8 18.7
߽⥛˄1 ᑈᳳᄬℒ˅ 4.14 2.52 2.25 2.75 3.25
∛⥛˄RMB/USD˅ 7.31 6.83 6.83 6.61 6.30

20101Q 20102Q 20103Q 20104Q˄F˅ 20111Q˄F˅ 20112Q˄F˅ 20113Q˄F˅ 20114Q˄F˅

GDP 11.9 10.3 9.6 9.0 8.7 9.1 9.8 10.2
CPI 2.2 2.9 3.5 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.8 2.9
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ ⊼˖ग़৆᭄᥂Ў㒳䅵ሔ݀Ꮧ᭄᥂

㸼 2˖2011 ᑈ Ё೑㒣⌢๲䭓ࡼ࡯ߚ㾷 ˄%˅

⍜䌍 䌘ᴀᔶ៤ ‫ߎޔ‬ষ
GDP
ᢝࡼ GDP 䋵⤂ ᢝࡼ GDP 䋵⤂ ᢝࡼ GDP 䋵⤂
2008 4.2 43.3 4.6 47.7 0.8 9.0 9.6
2009 4.8 53.1 8.4 94.6 -4.1 -47.7 9.1
2010F 4.9 48.0 5.2 51.0 0.1 1.0 10.2
2011F 4.8 50.5 4.9 51.5 -0.2 -2.0 9.5
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

2.2 ᡩ䌘ᓩ᪢ߛᤶ

2010 ᑈϟञᑈˈ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘๲䗳ਜ䗤᳜ϟ⒥ᗕ࢓ˈԚ䖯ܹಯᄷᑺˈϟ⒥ᗕ࢓Ꮖ㒣䗤ℹᬒ㓧ˈᡩ䌘๲
䭓Ꮖࠄ䖒ᑩ䚼ऎඳDŽ2011 ᑈˈ⬅Ѣ䋻Ꮥᬓㄪ䕀৥〇‫ֵˈع‬䌋๲䭓ᇚফࠄϔᅮⱘ᥻ࠊˈᡩ䌘䲒ҹߎ⦄໻ᐙ๲䭓DŽ
Ң 2005 ᑈ㟇 2010 ᑈˈ䋻Ꮥᬓㄪ㒣ग़њҢ〇‫ࠄع‬Ң㋻‫ࠄݡ‬䗖ᑺᆑᵒⱘ䕀বˈᡩ䌘г䱣Пߎ⦄⊶ࡼDŽⳂࠡˈ⬅
Ѣ⌕ࡼᗻⱘ䖛࠽ˈ䋻Ꮥᬓㄪ䞡ᮄ䕀৥〇‫ˈع‬ᡩ䌘๲䭓ৃ㛑Ӯᡓফϔᅮⱘय़࡯DŽԚ໘೼ĀकѠѨā㾘ߦᓔሔП
ᑈˈᮄᓔᎹᡩ䌘乍ⳂӮ᳝᠔๲ࡴˈৠᯊҞᑈϟञᑈĀ㡖㛑‫ޣ‬ᥦāᬓㄪϟय़ᡥⱘ䚼ߚᡩ䌘೼ 2011 ᑈৃ㛑Ӯ᳝
᠔䞞ᬒˈ಴ℸҢᭈԧϞⳟˈ2011 ᑈᡩ䌘๲䗳⬹᳝ϟ䰡ˈ乘䅵ܼᑈЎ 23%Ꮊেˈ㗠ᡩ䌘ᇍ㒣⌢ⱘ䋵⤂⥛ড㗠
Ӯ⬹छ˄಴Ў GDP ๲䭓ᰃಲ㨑ⱘ˅DŽ

2 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

㄀ϔˈ䋻Ꮥֵ䌋ᬊ㋻ϡ㟇Ѣߎ⦄ᡩ䌘䌘䞥ᴹ⑤䖛ᑺ㋻ᓴDŽ佪‫ܜ‬Ңֵ䌋䌘䞥ⳟˈ乘䅵 2011 ᑈֵ䌋㾘῵೼

7-7.5 ϛғП䯈ˈ㾘῵෎ᴀϢҞᑈᣕᑇDŽℸ໪㒧ᵘϞⳟˈ䴲ሙ⇥ⱘֵ䌋䌘䞥䖬Ӯ᳝᠔๲ࡴDŽ2010 ᑈࠡ 10 Ͼ᳜
6.88 ϛғֵ䌋ᘏ乱Ёˈ25%Ўሙ⇥䭓ᳳ䌋ℒ˄Џ㽕⫼Ѣ᠓䌋˅ˈ㗠䖭ϔ↨՟೼ҹᕔᑈӑϔ㠀Ў 15%ҹϟˈ䱣
ⴔ᠓ഄѻ佪Ҭⱘᦤ催ˈ2011 ᑈ䌁᠓ᴴᴚ⥛ᇚ᳝᠔䰡Ԣˈ乘䅵㛑㒧ԭ 7000 ғᎺে䌘䞥⫼Ѣ䴲ሙ⇥䭓ᳳֵ䌋˗
݊⃵ˈⲜ߽ད䕀ՓᕫӕϮ߽⫼㞾ㅍ䌘䞥䖯㸠ᡩ䌘ⱘ⿃ᵕᗻ๲ᔎˈ2010 ᑈϝᄷᑺᎹϮӕϮᑇഛ ROA 䖒ࠄ 7.9%ˈ
㱑✊䕗Ѡᄷᑺ᳝᠔ಲ㨑ˈԚҡ催Ѣ䌋ℒ߽⥛ˈ乘䅵᳾ᴹᡩ䌘䌘䞥ᴹ⑤ЁˈӕϮ㞾ㅍ䌘䞥ऴ↨ᇚᦤ催˗໪ଚⳈ
᥹ᡩ䌘ᇚ᳝᠔๲ࡴˈ2010 ᑈࠡ 10 Ͼ᳜ˈ໪ଚⳈ᥹ᡩ䌘㌃䅵㾘῵ 820 ғ㕢‫ˈܗ‬ҙ↨ܼ⧗䌌ᯧԢ䈋ⱘ 2009 ᑈ
๲䭓 13%ˈᭈԧ㾘῵Ϣ 2008 ᑈ෎ᴀᣕᑇˈ乘䅵䱣ⴔ໪䳔ⱘ䗤ℹད䕀ˈ໪ଚⳈ᥹ᡩ䌘гᇚ᳝᠔๲ࡴˈ೼ϔᅮ
⿟ᑺϞ㓧㾷ֵ䌋ᬊ㋻ⱘᡩ䌘䌘䞥य़࡯DŽ

೒ 2˖〇‫ֵⱘع‬䌋ᬓㄪᇐ㟈ᡩ䌘⬹᳝ϟ䰡 ˄%˅

䌋ℒ๲䗳 ㌃䅵ᡩ䌘๲䗳˄ে䕈˅
䗖ᑺᆑᵒ
40 36
〇‫ع‬ 〇‫ع‬
Ң㋻
30 32

20 28

10 24

0 20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㄀Ѡˈ෎ᓎᡩ䌘催๲䭓䖬ᇚ㓈ᣕˈ2011 ᑈ乘䅵๲䭓 21%ᎺেDŽ2009-2010 ᑈᰃ෎ᓎᡩ䌘ᮄᓔᎹ乍Ⳃ䲚Ё

䞞ᬒⱘϔᑈˈПৢᇚᰃ乍Ⳃⱘᣕ㓁ᓎ䆒ᳳDŽ㒧ᵘϞⳟˈࠡᳳⱘ䆒໛䌁㕂ᡩ䌘াऴ෎ᓎᡩ䌘䕗ᇣϔ䚼ߚˈҹ催
䪕ᓎ䆒乍ⳂЎ՟ˈ䆒໛䌁㕂ᡩ䌘ऴ↨ϡ䎇 15%ˈৢ㓁ⱘᓎ䆒ᡩ䌘ᠡᰃ෎ᓎᡩ䌘ⱘЏԧDŽ㒣ग़ 1 ᑈ໮ⱘ‫ޚ‬໛ৢˈ
ৢ㓁ᡩ䌘᳝ᳯᖿ䗳๲䭓ˈҢ催䪕ᓎ䆒䖯⿟ⳟˈⳂࠡシᎹⱘ䪕䏃䞠⿟䭓ᑺҙऴܼ䚼催䪕㾘ߦ䭓ᑺⱘ 7%ˈ93%
ⱘ催䪕䞠⿟㾘ߦ䳔㽕೼ 2011-2014 ᑈᡩܹᑊᅠ៤ˈᡩ䌘๲䭓ぎ䯈䖬䕗໻DŽ

㸼 3˖2010-2020 ᑈ䪕䏃ᓎ䆒シᎹ䞠⿟ᚙ‫މ‬ ˄݀䞠˅

䪕䏃シᎹ䞠⿟˄݀䞠˅ ᅶ䖤ϧ㒓 ජ䰙䔼䘧Ѹ䗮 䋻䖤䏃㔥 ᘏ䅵
2010 4257 847 88511 93615
2012 11468 2178 94779 108426
2015 21357 4375 103414 129146
2020 22680 7130 111694 141505
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖䪕䘧䚼ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

Ё㽓䚼෎ᓎᡩ䌘᳝ᳯࡴᖿDŽ೼ĀकѠѨā㾘ߦЁˈ㽓䚼ᡩ䌘㹿ᬒ೼ऎඳᘏԧ㾘ߦⱘḌᖗԡ㕂ˈᬓㄪᇚ䖯
ϔℹؒ᭰ˈᮄ⭚ǃ㽓㮣ㄝऎඳⱘ䪕䏃ǃ݀䏃ᓎ䆒᳝ᳯࡴᖿ˗ৠᯊᬓㄪᇍЁ䚼ऎඳⱘᅮԡ᳈ࡴᯢ⹂ˈे䖯ϔℹ
ᔎ࣪݊Ѹ䗮ᵶ㒑ഄԡˈҹ℺∝ǃ䞡ᑚЎЁᖗⱘĀ℺∝ü࣫Ҁā ǃ
Ā℺∝üϞ⍋āǃ
Ā䞡ᑚü߽Ꮁāㄝ催䗳䪕䏃䛑
ᇚ೼ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈シᎹᅠ៤ˈᘏ䞠⿟䍙䖛 3000 ݀䞠ˈᣝ✻催䪕ᡩ䌘↣݀䞠 6000-8000 ϛ䅵ㅫˈ⍝ঞᡩ䌘
䖒ࠄ 2000 ғ‫ܗ‬DŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 3
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

ĀकϔѨā㾘ߦ ĀकѠѨā㾘ߦ ⚍䆘
മᣕᡞ㽓䚼໻ᓔথ៬⬹ᬒ೼ऎඳথሩᘏԧ ᔎ࣪㽓䚼ᓔሩⱘᘏԧ៬⬹ˈ
㽓䚼 㒻㓁᥼䖯㽓䚼໻ᓔথ
៬⬹ⱘӬ‫ܜ‬ԡ㕂 ᬓㄪᇚ䖯ϔℹؒ᭰
ᡧད㊂亳Џѻऎᓎ䆒ˈথሩ᳝↨䕗Ӭ࢓ⱘ㛑 ֗䖯Ё䚼ഄऎዯ䍋ˈথ᣹ᡓϰਃ㽓ⱘऎԡӬ
ᬓㄪᣛ৥᳈ЎᯢᰒˈЁ䚼෎
Ё䚼 ⑤੠ࠊ䗴Ϯˈࡴᔎ෎⸔䆒ᮑᓎ䆒ˈࡴᖿᓎゟ ࢓ˈᬍ୘ᡩ䌘⦃๗ˈໂ໻Ӭ࢓ѻϮˈথሩ⦄
ᓎᡩ䌘ᇚࡴᖿ
⦄ҷᏖഎԧ㋏ ҷѻϮԧ㋏ˈᔎ࣪Ѹ䗮䖤䕧ᵶ㒑ഄԡ
ࡾ࡯ᦤ催㞾Џ߯ᮄ㛑࡯ˈࡴᖿᅲ⦄㒧ᵘӬ࣪ ೼᳈催ሖ⃵খϢ೑䰙㒣⌢ড়԰੠ゲѝˈ೼䕀
ϰ䚼 छ㑻੠๲䭓ᮍᓣ䕀বˈᦤ催໪৥ൟ㒣⌢∈ᑇˈ ব㒣⌢থሩᮍᓣǃ䇗ᭈ㒣⌢㒧ᵘ੠㞾Џ߯ᮄ ϰ䚼ᇚ䍄೼៬⬹䕀ൟⱘ᳔ࠡ⊓
๲ᔎ೑䰙ゲѝ࡯੠ৃᣕ㓁থሩ㛑࡯ Ё䍄೼ܼ೑ࠡ߫
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ᭈ⧚

㄀ϝˈ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘๲䗳ᇚϟ䰡ˈ2011 ᑈ乘䅵๲䭓 20%ᎺেDŽ2010 ᑈˈ೼催᠓ӋҹঞⳌᇍᆑ㺩⌕ࡼᗻⱘ

݅ৠ԰⫼ϟˈ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘ᖿ䗳๲䭓ˈ1-10 ᳜᠓ഄѻᓔথᡩ䌘ৠ↨๲䭓 36.5%ˈ๲䗳໘Ѣ䖥 5 ᑈᴹⱘ催ԡDŽҢ
ӴᇐϞⳟˈଚક᠓䫔ଂ乚‫ܜ‬᠓ഄѻᮄᓔᎹ 1 Ͼᄷᑺˈ᠓ഄѻᮄᓔᎹ乚‫ܜ‬ᡩ䌘 1-2 ϾᄷᑺˈⳂࠡଚક᠓䫔ଂ๲
䗳Ꮖ㒣Ңᑈ߱ 60%Ꮊেϟ䰡㟇 17%ˈ㗗㰥ࠄ᠓ഄѻ䇗᥻ᬓㄪⱘᓊ㓁ˈ乘䅵᳾ᴹଚક᠓䫔ଂ䖬ᇚ೼Ԣԡ㓈ᣕϔ
↉ᯊ䯈ˈ䖭ᇚᇐ㟈᠓ഄѻଚᮄᓔᎹ⿃ᵕᗻ䰡ԢˈҢ㗠ᕅડ 2011 ᑈⱘ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘DŽ

೒ 3˖᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘๲䗳ᇚᖿ䗳ಲ㨑 ˄%˅
᠓ሟᮄᓔᎹ ଚક᠓䫔ଂ ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

 ᑈ໻㾘῵ֱ䱰᠓㾘ߦϡㄝѢ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘催๲䭓DŽ䳔㽕ᣛߎⱘᰃˈሑㅵᖿ䗳๲䭓ⱘֱ䱰᠓ᡩ䌘ᰃᭈ
ԧ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘ⱘĀ〇ᅮ఼āˈԚ៥Ӏ䅸ЎᇍѢ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘ᴹ䇈ˈֱ䱰᠓㾘ߦᑊϡᰃ䍞໻䍞དˈ໻㾘῵ᡩ䌘㾘
ߦгϡϔᅮᛣੇⴔᡩ䌘ⱘ催๲䭓DŽᣝ✻Ҟᑈⱘ㾘ߦˈֱ䱰᠓ᓎ䆒ᅲ䰙㛑ᅠ៤ 500 ϛ༫Ꮊেˈ݊Ё 300 ϛ༫Ў
ҞᑈᮄᓔᎹᅠ៤ˈ200 ϛ༫ЎࠡᳳᓔᎹ㟇Ҟᑈᅠ៤DŽབᵰᯢᑈ㾘ߦ 1000 ϛ༫ˈᅲ䰙ᅠ៤ 650 ϛ༫ˈֱ䱰᠓
ᡩ䌘๲䗳ᇚ䍙䖛 40%ˈ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘๲䗳㑺Ў 20%ᎺেDŽԚབᵰֱ䱰᠓㾘ߦᅠ៤໻ᐙ䍙乘ᳳˈ⦄᳝ଚક᠓Ꮦഎ
կ䳔ᇚফࠄᎼ໻ⱘ‫˄ߏކ‬2009 ᑈଚક᠓䫔ଂ䴶⿃ 9.47 ғϛᑇ㉇ˈᣝ 80 ᑇ㉇/༫䅵ㅫˈϡ䎇 1200 ϛ༫ˈ2010
ᑈ乘䅵гህ 1300 ϛ༫˅ˈଚક᠓ᡩ䌘๲䗳ৃ㛑Ӯಲ㨑㟇Ͼԡ᭄ˈ㗠ֱ䱰᠓ᡩ䌘෎᭄Ꮖ㒣䕗催ˈ݊ᮄ๲䚼ߚ
䲒ҹᓹ㸹ଚક᠓ᡩ䌘ⱘϟ䰡ˈĀ Ā᣸ߎᬜᑨāⱘᄬ೼Փᕫ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘๲䗳ড㗠ৃ㛑ߎ⦄ϔᅮᐙᑺⱘϟ䰡DŽ

㄀ಯˈࠊ䗴Ϯᡩ䌘ߚ࣪ˈ2011 ᑈ乘䅵๲䭓 23%ᎺেDŽ⬅Ѣࠊ䗴Ϯᇍᑨⱘ 30 Ͼᄤ㸠Ϯ⡍ᕕ᳝᠔ϡৠˈ៥

Ӏᇚ݊ߚЎ㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ˄Џ㽕ࣙᣀ≑䔺ǃᴎẄǃ⬉⇨䆒໛ǃҾ఼Ҿ㸼ㄝ˅ǃ⫳⌏⫼કࠊ䗴Ϯ˄㒎㒛ǃ亳કǃ
佂᭭ǃ⚳㤝ㄝ˅ǃॳᴤ᭭ࠊ䗴Ϯ˄䩶䪕ǃ᳝㡆ǃ䴲䞥ሲⷓㄝ˅੠݊Ҫࠊ䗴Ϯ݅ 4 ㉏ˈⳂࠡಯ㉏ᡩ䌘ऴ↨ߚ߿
Ў 36.2%ǃ15.2%ǃ36.4%੠ 12.2%DŽҢ๲䗳ϞⳟˈⳂࠡ㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯᡩ䌘๲䗳᳔ᖿˈ2010 ᑈ 1-10 ᳜䖒ࠄ 32.8%ˈ
催ߎᭈԧࠊ䗴Ϯᡩ䌘๲䗳 7.1 Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈ⬅Ѣ㡖㛑‫ޣ‬ᥦᬓㄪⱘ䰤ࠊˈॳᴤ᭭ࠊ䗴Ϯᡩ䌘๲䭓䕗᜶ˈ1-10 ᳜๲
䭓 19.6%DŽ2011 ᑈˈԈ䱣ⴔĀकѠѨāѻϮᬓㄪⱘᅲᮑˈࠊ䗴Ϯᡩ䌘ߚ࣪Ḑሔᇚ᳈ЎᯢᰒDŽ㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯᡩ䌘
ᇚᣕ㓁催ԡ䖤㸠ˈ乘䅵ܼᑈ๲䭓 30%˗㱑✊㡖㛑‫ޣ‬ᥦᬓㄪࠄᯢᑈৃ㛑⬹᳝ᬒᵒˈԚ催㛑㗫ǃ催∵ᶧ㸠Ϯྟ㒜
ᰃᬓㄪ䇗᥻ⱘⳂᷛˈ೼ֵ䌋㾘῵᳝䰤ⱘᚙ‫މ‬ϟˈ݊ᮄ๲ᡩ䌘๲䭓Ӯ䴶Ј䕗໻य़࡯ˈ乘䅵䖭䚼ߚᡩ䌘ܼᑈ๲䭓
10%Ꮊে˗⫳⌏⫼કࠊ䗴Ϯ੠݊Ҫᡩ䌘೼෎᭄ᕅડϟˈ๲䗳гӮᇣᐙϟ䰡DŽ

4 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 4˖㺙໛ࠊ䗴ϮϢ㛑⑤ѻકࠊ䗴Ϯऴ↨䕗催 ೒ 5˖ࠊ䗴Ϯߚ㉏ൟᡩ䌘๲䗳˄%˅

2010E 2011E
12%
35 32.8
37% 30
30
㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ 25.6 25.5
25 22
⫳⌏⫼કࠊ䗴Ϯ 19.6
20 18

ॳᴤ᭭ࠊ䗴Ϯ 15
10
10
݊Ҫ
36% 5
15% 0
㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ ⫳⌏⫼કࠊ䗴Ϯ ॳᴤ᭭ࠊ䗴Ϯ ݊Ҫ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㄀Ѩˈ‫ݰ‬Ϯ੠᳡ࡵϮᡩ䌘๲䗳ᇚ໻ᐙᦤ催ˈ2011 ᑈ乘䅵๲䭓 29%ᎺেDŽⳂࠡ᳡ࡵϮᡩ䌘๲䭓ਜ⦄ᑩ䚼

ӕ〇ⱘḐሔˈ1-10 ᳜๲䭓 16.6%ˈԢѢᭈԧᡩ䌘๲䗳㑺 6 Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈ㒧ᵘϞⳟˈҞᑈ䕃ӊ䗮ֵϮ˄-5.2%˅ǃ
ᬭ㚆˄13.7%˅
ǃए⭫˄13.6%˅ㄝ㸠Ϯᡩ䌘๲䭓䖬䕗᜶ˈ㗠lj哧ࢅ੠ᓩᇐ⇥䯈ᡩ䌘ⱘ㢹ᑆᛣ㾕NJᏆ㒣Ў᳡ࡵ
Ϯᡩ䌘ⱘᖿ䗳๲䭓ᠧᓔњぎ䯈ˈ ĀकѠѨā㾘ߦ䖯ϔℹᣛߎ㽕Ā໻࡯থሩ⫳ѻᗻ᳡ࡵϮ੠⫳⌏ᗻ᳡ࡵϮāˈ乘
䅵䱣ⴔᬃᣕ᳡ࡵϮⳌ݇㒚߭ⱘ䰚㓁ߎৄˈ᳡ࡵϮᡩ䌘ᇚࡴ䗳๲䭓DŽ3Gǃϝ㔥㵡ড়ǃए⭫᳡ࡵᬒᓔǃ⦃ֱϧ
乍㾘ߦᇍᑨⱘֵᙃӴ䕧ǃ䅵ㅫᴎ᳡ࡵ੠䕃ӊϮҹঞए⭫ǃᬭ㚆੠⦃ֱㄝ᳡ࡵϮᡩ䌘᳔‫࡯┰݋‬DŽ

亳કӋḐϞ⍼᥼ࡼ 2011 ᑈ‫ݰ‬Ϯᡩ䌘ࡴᖿDŽⳂࠡ㊂亳ᅝܼㄝ䯂乬ⱘ㋻䖿ᗻᑊ᳾⍜䰸ˈᬓㄪ䖬ᇚ㒻㓁ᬃᣕ

‫ݰ‬ϮⳌ݇ᡩ䌘˗঺ϔᮍ䴶ˈҞᑈϟञᑈ亳કӋḐᣕ㓁Ϟ⍼ˈ10 ᳜亳કӋḐৠ↨Ϟछ 10.1%ˈ๲䗳䖲㓁 5 Ͼ᳜
ᦤ催DŽ㊂亳㒜ッӋḐⱘϞ⍼᳝ᳯᏺᴹ‫ݰ‬Ϯ㞾Џᡩ䌘ⱘ๲ᔎˈҢӴᇐ਼ᳳⳟˈ亳કӋḐ乚‫ݰܜ‬Ϯᡩ䌘 6-8 Ͼ᳜ˈ
಴ℸ乘䅵 2011 ᑈ‫ݰ‬Ϯᡩ䌘ᇚᯢᰒࡴᖿˈܼᑈ᳝ᳯさ⸈ 40%ˈᰃҞᑈ‫ݰ‬Ϯᡩ䌘๲䗳ⱘϸ‫ס‬DŽ

೒ 6˖亳કӋḐϞ⍼᥼ࡼ 2011 ᑈ‫ݰ‬Ϯᡩ䌘ࡴᖿ ˄%˅

‫ݰ‬Ϯᡩ䌘๲䗳 CPI˄亳કǃে䕈ǃ乚‫ܜ‬8Ͼ᳜˅
120 128

100 123

80 118

60 113

40 108

20 103

0 98
05-04 06-06 07-08 08-10 09-12 11-02

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

⬅Ѣ᠓ഄѻ䇗᥻ᬓㄪⱘᓊ㓁੠ҹঞ䋻Ꮥᬓㄪⱘᬊ㓽ˈ乘䅵 2011 ᑈ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘Ϣࠊ䗴Ϯᡩ䌘ߚ߿๲䭓 20%

੠ 23%ˈ䕗Ҟᑈߚ߿ಲ㨑 12 Ͼ੠ 3 Ͼⱒߚ⚍DŽԚ䱣ⴔĀकѠѨā㾘ߦ㒚߭ⱘ䰚㓁ߎৄҹঞ᳡ࡵㅵࠊ乚ඳⱘ
ᬒᓔˈ෎ᓎᡩ䌘੠‫ݰ‬ϮϢ᳡ࡵϮᡩ䌘๲䭓Ӯ᳝᠔ࡴᖿˈ2011 ᑈߚ߿๲䭓 21%੠ 29%ˈ䕗Ҟᑈᦤ催 1 Ͼ੠ 10
Ͼⱒߚ⚍DŽ2011 ᑈ෎ᓎᡩ䌘ǃࠊ䗴Ϯᡩ䌘ǃ᠓ഄѻ੠‫ݰ‬Ϯঞ᳡ࡵϮᡩ䌘ऴ↨ߚ߿Ў 27%ǃ31%ǃ23%੠ 19%DŽ
ᭈԧϞⳟˈ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘๲䗳ᇚ⬹᳝ϟ䰡ˈ乘䅵ܼᑈ๲䭓 23%ᎺেDŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 5
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 7˖2011 ᑈᡩ䌘๲䗳ϸ๲ϸ‫ޣ‬ ೒ 8˖2011 ᑈಯ㉏ᡩ䌘ऴ↨ᚙ‫މ‬

2010E 2011E
40% 19% 27%
32%
29% ෎⸔䆒ᮑ
30% 26%
23%
20%21% 20% 19% ࠊ䗴Ϯ
20%
᠓ഄѻ
10%
‫ݰ‬ϮϢ᳡ࡵϮ
23%
0% 31%
෎⸔䆒ᮑ ࠊ䗴Ϯ ᠓ഄѻ ‫ݰ‬ϮϢ᳡ࡵϮ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

2.3 ᳡ࡵࡽ᥼⍜䌍

2011 ᑈⱘ⍜䌍෎ᴀᓊ㓁Ҟᑈⱘ䍟࢓ˈ䳊ଂᘏ乱ৡН๲䗳〇ᅮ೼ 18%ᎺেˈⳌᇍ 2010 ᑈ⬹᳝ϟ䰡ˈ㗠᳡

ࡵ⍜䌍߭ࡴ䗳๲䭓ˈᭈԧ⍜䌍ᇍ㒣⌢ⱘ䋵⤂⥛᳝᠔ϞछDŽҢሙ⇥⍜䌍ⳟˈሙ⇥⍜䌍⒲ৢᬊܹ๲䭓㑺 3 Ͼᄷᑺˈ
⬅Ѣ≑䔺ǃᆊ⬉ǃ⷇⊍ࠊકㄝৃ䗝⍜䌍કⱘ෎᭄䕗催ˈᯢᑈ䚼ߚࠎ▔ᬓㄪৃ㛑䗔ߎˈ乘ᳳ䖭㉏ᅲ⠽⍜䌍๲䗳
ᇚ⬹᳝ϟ䰡DŽҢᬓᑰ⍜䌍ⳟˈ䋶ᬓᬃߎᇚ⬅ᓎ䆒ᗻ䋶ᬓ䕀৥᳡ࡵᗻ䋶ᬓˈ䚼ߚ䋶ᬓᬃߎᇚⳈ᥹⫼Ѣ⍜䌍ˈᬓ
ᑰ⍜䌍๲䗳ᇚ෎ᴀֱᣕ〇ᅮDŽ

ফ㒣⌢๲䗳䍟㓧੠ᬓㄪ䖍䰙ᬜᑨ‫ޣ‬ᔅᕅડˈৃ䗝⍜䌍ક๲䗳ᇚ⬹᳝ϟ䰡DŽ⬅Ѣৃ䗝⍜䌍કⱘ๲䗳੠㒣⌢
݇㘨᳔Ўᆚߛˈ㗠≑䔺ᆊ⬉ㄝᬓㄪⱘࠎ▔ᬜᵰᇚ೼ᯢᑈ᳝᠔‫ޣ‬ᔅˈ಴ℸ 2011 ⱘৃ䗝ક๲䗳ᇚ᳝᠔䰡Ԣˈ㗠
ᖙ䳔ક๲䗳ᇚֱᣕ〇Ё᳝छDŽߚѻકⳟˈ㱑✊៥೑≑䔺ֱ᳝䞣ձ✊೼ᖿ䗳Ϟछ䗮䘧ЁˈԚ㗗㰥ࠄ 09ǃ10 ᑈ
ϸᑈⱘ催෎᭄ᕅડˈҹঞᯢᑈ䚼ߚࠎ▔ᬓㄪⱘ䗔ߎˈ乘ᳳ 2011 ᑈ≑䔺䫔ଂܼᑈ๲䗳೼ 20%ᎺেˈⳌᇍҞᑈ
ⱘ䖥 30%᳝᠔䰡ԢDŽৠᯊˈᆊ⬉ㄝĀҹᮻᤶᮄāᬓㄪⱘ䖍䰙ᬜᑨᇚ᳝᠔‫ޣ‬ᔅˈ㓐ড়㗗㰥ᮄ๲ 19 ⳕᏖ㑺 1500
ғ䫔ଂ乱ˈ៥Ӏ乘ᳳ 2011 ᑈᆊ⬉㉏ѻકⱘ⍜䌍ᇚ㓈ᣕ೼ 20%Ꮊেⱘ๲䗳ˈⳌᇍҞᑈⱘ 25%䰡Ԣ㑺 5 Ͼⱒߚ
⚍DŽ亳ક᳡㺙㉏ᖙ䳔⍜䌍ક߭Ⳉ᥹ফⲞѢ೑ᆊᇍԢッᬊܹҎ㕸ⱘᬊܹ䇗㡖ᬓㄪˈফ䗮㚔ᕅડˈ๲䗳ᇚ↨Ҟᑈ
⬹᳝ϞछDŽᘏԧ㗠㿔ˈ៥Ӏ䅸Ў 2011 ᑈ䳊ଂ乱๲䗳ಲ㨑ˈЏ㽕ᰃ䚼ߚৃ䗝⍜䌍કফ㒣⌢๲䗳䍟㓧੠ᬓㄪࠎ
▔‫ޣ‬ᔅⱘᕅડDŽ

⹀ӊᅠ୘੠ᬓㄪ֗䖯ᇚ᥼ࡼ᳡ࡵ⍜䌍䖯ϔℹᦤ䗳DŽ2010 ᑈࠡ 10 ᳜ˈ令佂⍜䌍๲䗳ᦤछ䗳ᑺ䗤ℹ催Ѣଚ
ક䳊ଂˈ೼䳊ଂᘏ乱Ё᠔ऴⱘ↨䞡г䗤ℹᦤछˈԧ⦄ߎሙ⇥⍜䌍ℷ೼⊓ⴔҹĀ亳ǃ㸷ǃԣǃ㸠ǃ㚆ǃФāⱘ
ᮍ৥ࠡ㸠DŽ៥Ӏ䅸Ў⹀ӊ䆒ᮑⱘᅠ୘੠ᬓㄪⱘ֗䖯ᇚ៤Ў᳡ࡵ⍜䌍ᦤछⱘЏ㽕᥼ࡼ࡯DŽ佪‫ˈܜ‬៥೑᮹Ⲟᅠ୘
ⱘ෎⸔䆒ᮑЎ᳡ࡵ⍜䌍ᦤկӬ䋼ⱘ⹀ӊ⦃๗ˈ↨བ໻㾘῵ⱘᮄᓎ݀䏃䪕䏃ˈ៤Ўᮙ␌Ϯথሩⱘ䜡༫෎⸔ˈ㗠
៥೑᭄䞣᫔छⱘ䰶㒓䆒ᮑˈϢᗹ࠻Ϟछⱘ⬉ᕅ⼼᠓ᬊܹⳌ䕙Ⳍ៤ˈ䖭㸼ᯢᅠ୘ⱘ෎⸔䆒ᮑℷ೼ᦤ䗳᳡ࡵ⍜䌍DŽ
݊⃵ˈᬓᑰᇚᠧ⸈൘ᮁ֗䖯ए⭫ֱ‫ع‬᳡ࡵકⱘկ㒭ˈ᥼ࡼ๲ؐ⿢ᬍ䴽Ўଚ䌌⌕䗮乚ඳ‫ˈ⿢ޣ‬ᇍ᭛࣪ѻϮ੠ֵ
ᙃѻϮㄝ䖯㸠ᬓㄪᡊᣕˈᇍᖂ߽ӕϮ䖯㸠⿢ᬊ‫ܡޣ‬ㄝˈ๲ࡴሙ⇥᳡ࡵ㉏⍜䌍կ㒭DŽ៥Ӏ乘ᳳ 2011 ᑈⱘ᳡ࡵ
⍜䌍ᇚ៤Ўᢝࡼ⍜䌍๲䭓ⱘЏ㽕ࡼ࡯DŽ

⍜䌍ᇍ㒣⌢ⱘ䋵⤂⥛ᇚᣕ㓁ϞछDŽҢ 2010 ᑈⳟˈࠡϝᄷᑺ⍜䌍ક䳊ଂᘏ乱 111029 ғ‫ˈܗ‬

ৠ↨๲䭓 18.3%ˈ
ᣝϢ 09 ᑈֱᣕϔ㟈ⱘ䳊ଂ㒳䅵ষᕘᡬㅫ˄2010 ᑈⱘ䳊ଂ㒳䅵ষᕘ᳝᠔䇗ᭈ˅ˈ1-9 ᳜䳊ଂᘏ乱ऴ GDP ↨䞡
Ў 39.5%ˈᰒ㨫催Ѣग़৆ৠᳳ∈ᑇˈ⍜䌍ᇍ㒣⌢ⱘ䋵⤂⥛ℷ໘೼ᖿ䗳Ϟछ䗮䘧ˈ乘ᳳ 2010 ᑈ⍜䌍ᇍ㒣⌢ⱘ
䋵⤂⥛ᇚ䖒ࠄ䖥 50%ˈ㗗㰥ࠄ⍜䌍Ҏষ↨䞡ⱘᣕ㓁Ϟछˈ2011 ᑈ᳝ᳯさ⸈ 50%DŽ

6 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 9˖2011 ᑈ䳊ଂ๲䗳ֱᣕ೼ 18%Ꮊে ˄%˅ ೒ 10˖⍜䌍ᇍ㒣⌢ⱘ䋵⤂⥛ᣕ㓁Ϟछ ˄%˅

ࠡϝᄷᑺ䳊ଂ乱ऴGDP↨䞡
䳊ଂᅲ䰙๲䗳
GDP๲䗳˄ে䕈ˈ⒲ৢಯᳳˈᄷᑺᑇ⒥˅ 40
24 15
39
22 14
13 38
20
18 12 37
11 36
16
10
14 35
9
12 8 34
10 7 33
8 6

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
00

02

04

06

08

10

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 11˖令佂ᦤछ䗳ᑺ催Ѣଚક䳊ଂ ˄%˅ ೒ 12˖ৃ䗝⍜䌍ક๲䗳Ϣ㒣⌢๲䗳᳈Ⳍ݇ ˄%˅

ଚક䳊ଂ๲䗳 令佂๲䗳
ৃ䗝⍜䌍ક๲䗳 ৡНGDP๲䗳
50 ᖙ䳔⍜䌍ક๲䗳
22 45
40
20 35
30
18 25
20
15
16
10
5
14 0
1᳜ 2᳜ 3᳜ 4᳜ 5᳜ 6᳜ 7᳜ 8᳜ 9᳜ 10᳜ 200703 200803 200903 201003 201103

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 13˖Ѹ䗮ⱘᅠ୘ᇚ᥼ࡼᮙ␌⍜䌍๲䭓 ˄ғ/݀䞠˅ ೒ 14˖䰶㒓䆒ᮑϢ⬉ᕅ⼼᠓ᬊܹⳌ䕙Ⳍ៤ ˄ғ/ഫ˅

ᮙ␌ᬊܹ:ᘏ䅵 ᮄᓎ݀䏃˄ে䕈˅ ⼼᠓ᬊܹ 䫊ᐩ᭄˄ে䕈˅
12,000. 120,000 120 7000
100 6000
10,000. 100,000
80 5000
8,000. 80,000 4000
60
3000
6,000. 60,000 40 2000
40,000 20 1000
4,000.
0 0
2,000. 20,000
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010乘ᳳ

0. 0
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 7
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

2.4 ߎষ๲䭓Ёᵶϟ⿏

2011 ᑈ៥೑ߎষ๲䭓 16%ᎺেDŽሩᳯ 2011 ᑈˈᕅડЁ೑ߎষ᳔䞡㽕ⱘ಴㋴ᰃ໪䳔ˈЁ೑ⱘߎষ๲䗳੠Ϫ

⬠ⱘᘏ䖯ষ๲䗳催ᑺⳌ݇DŽḍ᥂ IMF ੠ OECD ㄝ೑䰙ᴎᵘⱘ乘⌟ˈϪ⬠䌌ᯧᘏ乱ⱘ๲䗳ᯢᑈ໻㑺Ў 8.8%DŽಲ
ᔦߚᵤ㸼ᯢˈ៥೑ᯢᑈⱘ䌌ᯧ๲䗳໻㑺Ў 20.4%DŽ೼㒳䅵῵ൟП໪ˈ៥Ӏজ㗗㰥њЁ೑㒣⌢ 2011 ᑈᇚ䴶Јⱘ
ϔѯ݊Ҫ಴㋴˄៥ӀӮ೼ϟ䴶䅼䆎䖭ѯ಴㋴˅ DŽ೼㗗㰥䖭ѯ಴㋴ৢˈ៥ӀԄ䅵 2011 ᑈ៥೑ߎষ๲䗳໻㑺 16%DŽ

೒ 15˖Ё೑੠Ϫ⬠䋻⠽ߎষ๲䗳ⱘ催ᑺⳌ݇ᗻ ˄%˅
Ϫ⬠䖯ষ๲䗳 Ё೑ߎষ๲䗳
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WTOˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

ࠊ㑺៥೑ߎষ㒻㓁ᖿ䗳๲䭓ⱘ಴㋴ࣙᣀЏ㽕䌌ᯧӭԈⱘ㒣⌢๲䭓У࡯ǃ៥೑Ꮖ㒣䕗໻ⱘߎষ㾘῵෎᭄ǃ
ᑇ㸵೑䰙ᬊᬃⱘय़࡯ㄝ಴㋴DŽ

㄀ϔˈ៥೑ⱘЏ㽕䌌ᯧӭԈ˄㕢೑ǃ⃻ⲳǃ᮹ᴀ˅䛑䴶Јⴔ㒣⌢໡㢣㓧᜶ǃ㒧ᵘᬍ䴽य़࡯໻ⱘೄ๗DŽ㕢
೑ⱘᆊᒁ੠ӕϮҡ✊೼এᴴᴚ࣪ⱘ䖛⿟ЁDŽሑㅵ᳔䖥޴ϾᄷᑺӕϮᡩ䌘Ꮖ㒣᳝䕗໻ⱘ䍋㡆ˈԚᰃ᠓ഄѻӋḐ
੠᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘ҡ✊Ԣ䗋DŽЎњׂ໡䌘ѻ䋳؎㸼ˈ㕢೑ᆊᒁⱘ‫ټ‬㪘⥛ৃ㛑㒻㓁ᦤ催DŽ঺໪ˈ催༅Ϯ⥛г䰤ࠊњ
ᆊᒁⱘᬊܹˈሙ⇥⍜䌍ᕜ䲒᳝ᣕ㓁ⱘ催๲䭓DŽ᳔ৢˈ㕢೑䫊㸠Ϯⱘֵ⫼ᠽᓴҡ✊㓧᜶ˈҢ㗠䰤ࠊњ㒣⌢๲䭓DŽ
㓐ড়㗗㰥ˈ㕢೑㒣⌢ⱘ໡㢣Ӯ↨䕗㓧᜶ˈᇍ໪೑ଚકⱘ䳔∖๲䭓ᇚᬒ㓧DŽ

⃻⌆೑ᆊ䴶ЈⴔЏᴗ؎ࡵॅᴎ੠⃻‫ܗ‬ऎ䞥㵡ԧ㋏㔎У〇ᅮᗻⱘೄᡄˈᬓᑰ䴶Јⴔ䋶ᬓ㋻㓽ⱘᔎ໻य़࡯ˈ
Ҟৢ᭄ᑈⱘ๲䭓гᇚ↨䕗㓧᜶DŽ᮹ᴀⱘ㗕啘࣪ࡴ࠻ˈᬓᑰ؎ࡵ催ӕˈ㒣⌢ҡ✊໘೼䗮㓽ⱘ䖍㓬ˈ䖭ѯ಴㋴г
䅽᮹ᴀᕜ䲒ਜ⦄ᔎࢆⱘ๲䭓DŽҢ៥೑ⱘߎষⳂⱘഄ㒧ᵘϞⳟˈ៥೑ᇍ㕢⃻᮹੠ϰⲳⱘߎষऴ៥೑ߎষᘏ䞣ⱘ
ϔञҹϞDŽ೼䖛এⱘकᑈЁˈᇍ⃻ⲳߎষᖿ䗳๲䭓ˈ⃻ⲳᏆ㒣៤Ў៥೑᳔໻ⱘߎষⳂⱘഄˈপҷњ㕢೑ⱘԡ
㕂DŽ៥೑ᇍ᮹ᴀⱘߎষӑ乱߭㒣ग़њᖿ䗳ⱘϟ䰡ˈ㗠ᇍϰⲳⱘߎষӑ乱߭೼〇ℹϞछDŽሑㅵϰⲳⱘ㒣⌢๲䭓
ᚙ‫Ⳍމ‬ᇍФ㾖ˈԚᰃ⬅Ѣ㕢⃻᮹ϝ໻থ䖒㒣⌢ԧ๲䭓㓧᜶ˈ៥೑ᯢᑈⱘߎষ๲䗳гᇚӮᬒ㓧DŽ

೒ 16˖㕢⃻᮹ⱘ㒣⌢๲䭓⥛乘⌟ ˄%˅
᮹ᴀ ⃻ⲳ 㕢೑
4

-2

-4

-6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖IMFˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

8 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 17˖Ё೑ᇍЏ㽕䌌ᯧӭԈⱘߎষ↨䞡 ˄%˅
ᇍ᮹ᴀߎষ↨䞡 ᇍ㕢೑ߎষ↨䞡
ᇍ⃻ⲳߎষ↨䞡 ᇍϰⲳߎষ↨䞡
25

20

15

10

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㄀Ѡˈ៥೑䚼ߚѻકܼ⧗Ꮦഎऴ᳝⥛ᕜ催ˈ㒻㓁ᦤ催ऴ᳝⥛䲒ᑺࡴ໻DŽ៥೑ⱘᎹϮࠊ䗴કⱘᏖഎӑ乱Ꮖ
㒣䍙䖛ᖋ೑៤ЎϪ⬠㄀ϔ˄09 ᑈӑ乱ᰃ 9.6%˅DŽ೼䆌໮㒚ߚѻકᏖഎϞˈ៥೑ⱘᏖഎऴ᳝⥛߭᳈催DŽ↨བˈ
2009 ᑈ៥೑೼Ϫ⬠᳡㺙ߎষᏖഎϞⱘӑ乱᥹䖥 34%DŽ⬅Ѣ䕗催ⱘ෎᭄ˈ㒻㓁ᦤ催ⱘ䲒ᑺӮ๲໻DŽ

㄀ϝˈܼ⧗‫ݡ‬ᑇ㸵ᇍ៥೑ߎষᵘ៤य़࡯DŽ೼ 2005-2010 ᳳ䯈ˈ៥೑䌌ᯧ乎Ꮒऴ GDP ⱘᑇഛ↨䞡ᰃ޴Ͼ

乎Ꮒ໻೑Ё᳔催ⱘDŽ䖛໻ⱘ乎Ꮒ೼֗䖯៥೑㒣⌢๲䭓ⱘৠᯊˈгᏺᴹњϔѯ䋳䴶ⱘᬜᵰDŽϔᮍ䴶ˈ໻䞣ⱘ䌌
ᯧ乎Ꮒ๲ࡴњ៥೑໪∛‫ټ‬໛ㅵ⧚ⱘ䲒ᑺDŽ៾㟇 2010 ᑈ 10 ᳜ˈ៥೑ⱘ໪∛‫ټ‬໛ᘏ䞣䍙䖛њ 2.6 ϛғ㕢‫ˈܗ‬ԡ
ሙϪ⬠㄀ϔDŽ䱣ⴔ䌘ѻ㾘῵ⱘᠽ໻ˈ䅽䖭ヨ䌘ѻֱؐ๲ؐⱘӏࡵ䍞ᴹ䍞㡄ᎼDŽ᳈Ў䞡㽕ⱘᰃˈ⬅Ѣ៥೑ⱘЏ
㽕乎Ꮒᴹ⑤೑㕢೑㒣⌢๲䭓У࡯ǃ༅Ϯ⥛催ӕˈᇍ㕢䌌ᯧ乎ᏂՓ៥೑䴶Ј䍞ᴹ䍞໻ⱘ೑䰙य़࡯DŽ

೒ 18˖Ё೑ǃᖋ೑ǃ᮹ᴀⱘ䌌ᯧ乎Ꮒऴ GDP ↨䞡 ˄%˅

ᖋ೑ Ё೑ ᮹ᴀ
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖IMFˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㕢೑ᰃϪ⬠Ϟ᳔໻ⱘ䌌ᯧ䗚Ꮒ೑DŽ⬅Ѣ㕢೑㒣⌢䴶Ј༅Ϯ⥛催ǃ㒣⌢໡㢣㓧᜶ⱘೄ๗ˈ㕢೑䗝⇥੠ᬓᑰᇍ
䌌ᯧ䗚Ꮒⱘᆍᖡᑺ䍞ᴹ䍞ԢDŽ㞾 2005 ᑈҹᴹ㕢೑ⱘ䌌ᯧ䗚Ꮒऴ GDP ⱘᘏԧ䍄࢓ᰃᬊじⱘDŽ㕢೑ᬓᑰ᳔䖥ᔎ䇗
Ϫ⬠㒣⌢ⱘ‫ݡ‬ᑇ㸵ˈे乎Ꮒ೑㽕๲ࡴ䖯ষҹ‫ޣ‬ᇥ乎Ꮒˈ㗠䌌ᯧ䗚Ꮒ೑㽕๲ࡴߎষҹ‫ޣ‬ᇥ䗚ᏂDŽ⬅ѢЁ೑೼䖛এ
ⱘकᑈЁ䗤⏤៤Ў㕢೑᳔໻ⱘ䌌ᯧ䗚Ꮒᴹ⑤೑ˈ㕢೑ⱘ䌌ᯧゟഎᇍ៥೑ⱘߎষ‫݋‬᳝䞡㽕ᕅડDŽ೼㕢೑ⱘ䖯ষଚ
કᏖഎϞˈЁ೑ӑ乱Ң 2000 ᑈⱘ 8.5%๲䭓ࠄ 2009 ᑈⱘ 19.3%DŽ៥೑Ꮖ㒣ᰃ㕢೑䖯ষⱘ㄀ϔ໻ᴹ⑤೑ˈ䍙䖛⃻
ⲳ੠ࡴᣓ໻DŽ⬅Ѣ䖭Ͼॳ಴ˈফࠄ㕢೑ᮄ䌌ᯧᬓㄪᕅડ᳔໻ⱘᇚᰃЁ೑DŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 9
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 19˖㕢೑䌌ᯧ䗚Ꮒ੠ᇍЁ೑䗚Ꮒᚙ‫މ‬ ˄%˅
ᇍЁ೑䗚Ꮒऴ㕢೑ᘏ䌌ᯧ䗚Ꮒ↨䞡˄Ꮊ䕈˅
㕢೑䌌ᯧ䗚ᏂऴGDP↨䞡˄ে䕈˅
40 7
35 6
30 5
25
4
20
3
15
10 2
5 1
0 0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖IMFˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

2.5 䗮㚔ϟञᑈᇚಲ㨑㟇ড়⧚∈ᑇ

2011 ᑈᑈ᳝߱䕗ᔎⱘ䗮㚔य़࡯ˈ⠽Ӌ∈ᑇҡӮ䕗ᖿϞछˈ乘䅵 2011 ᑈϞञᑈ䗮㚔∈ᑇⳌᇍ䕗催ˈϟञ

ᑈᇚ᳝᠔ಲ㨑DŽҢ CPI ⱘব࣪䍟࢓ᴹⳟˈܼᑈⱘ䗮㚔䍄࢓ᇚᰃࠡ催ৢԢˈ᯹㡖ৢ䗮㚔ⱘय़࡯ᇚ᳝᠔‫ޣ‬㓧DŽ乘
䅵 2010 ᑈ CPI Ў 3.3%ˈ2011 ᑈЎ 3.8%ˈPPI2010 ᑈЎ 5.5%ˈ2011 ᑈЎ 4.6%DŽ
೒ 20˖2010-2011 ᑈ CPI ੠ PPI 䍄࢓乘⌟ ˄%˅

6 CPI 8 PPI
7
5
6
4
5
3 4
3
2
2
1 1
0 0
10-1 10-7 11-1 11-7 10-1 10-7 11-1 11-7

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

䗮䋻㝼㚔ᰃᘏկ㒭੠ᘏ䳔∖ব࣪ⱘ㒧ᵰDŽḍ᥂㒣‫⧚ⱘ݌‬䆎ˈ‫އ‬ᅮᘏկ㒭੠ᘏ䳔∖ⱘ಴㋴ࣙᣀ˖㒣⌢๲䭓ǃ
䗮㚔乘ᳳǃ៤ᴀ‫ࣙ(ߏކ‬ᣀ໻ᅫଚકӋḐϞछǃ໪⫳ᗻ‫ݰ‬ѻક⫳ѻব࣪)ˈ಴ℸˈᕅડ䗮㚔ⱘ಴㋴Џ㽕᳝㒣⌢
๲䭓ǃ໻ᅫଚકӋḐব࣪ҹঞ‫ݰ‬Ϯ⫳ѻⱘ໪⫳ব࣪DŽ߽⫼ҹϞಯϾ಴㋴៥Ӏৃҹ῵ᢳ䗮㚔ⱘ䍄࢓ˈ݊㒧ᵰབ
೒ 1ˈ䖭ѯ಴㋴㛑㾷䞞៥೑ CPI বࡼⱘ 80%੠ PPI ⱘ 90%DŽϟ䴶៥Ӏ䗤ϔߚᵤ䖭ѯ಴㋴ᇍ䗮㚔ⱘᕅડDŽ

10 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 21˖CPI Ϣ῵ᢳⱘ CPI ˄%˅ ೒ 22˖PPI Ϣ῵ᢳⱘ PPI ˄%˅

CPI ῵ᢳⱘCPI 䇃Ꮒ˄ে˅ PPI ῵ᢳⱘPPI 䇃Ꮒ˄ে˅
10 18 12 20
8 16
6 14 8 16
4 12 4 12
2 10
0 8 0 8
-2 6
-4 4 -4 4
-6 2 -8 0
-8 0
-10 -2 -12 -4
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

佪‫ⱘࠡⳂˈܜ‬㒣⌢๲䭓䗳ᑺᑊϡӮᇍ䗮㚔䗴៤ᣕ㓁ⱘय़࡯DŽ㒣⌢๲䭓ᇍ䗮㚔᳝ᯢᰒⱘᢝࡼ԰⫼ˈGDP 乚
‫ܜ‬䗮㚔 2-3 ϾᄷᑺDŽ2010 ᑈҹᴹˈGDP ๲䗳᳝᠔ϟ䰡ˈ㒣⌢๲䭓ᑊϡᬃᣕ⠽Ӌᣕ㓁Ϟ⍼DŽ⬅Ѣ䖥ᳳ㒣⌢๲䗳
᳝᠔ಲ㨑ˈࢇࡼ࡯Ꮦഎկ∖㋻ᓴⱘሔ䴶Ꮖ㒣᳝᠔㓧㾷ˈ䖭ᇍᣕ㓁ⱘ䗮㚔य़࡯ᇚӮ᳝᠔‫ޣ‬䕏DŽབᵰ 2011 ᑈЁ೑
㒣⌢๲䗳ಲ㨑㟇 9%-10%П䯈ˈࢇࡼ࡯Ꮦഎⱘ㋻ᓴ⢊‫މ‬ᇚᯢᰒϟ䰡ˈ䙷Мˈᇍ䗮㚔ⱘय़࡯гᇚ᳝᠔㓧㾷DŽ

೒ 23˖Ⳃࠡⱘ㒣⌢๲䗳ᑊϡᵘ៤ᯢᰒⱘ䗮㚔य़࡯ ˄%˅ ೒ 24˖㒣⌢๲䭓ᬒ㓧‫ޣ‬㓧ࢇࡼկ∖य़࡯ ˄%˅

GDP˄乚‫ܜ‬3Ͼᄷᑺ˅ CPI˄ে˅ GDP 㘠ԡկ∖↨˄ে˅

17 9 16 1.10

15 7
14 1.05
13 5
12 1.00
11 3
10 0.95
9 1
8 0.90
7 -1

5 -3 6 0.85
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё೑㒳䅵ᑈ䡈ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

݊⃵ˈ䕧ܹᗻ䗮㚔य़࡯ⷁᳳ‫ݙ‬㱑✊᳝᠔ࡴᔎˈԚᰃᯢᑈܼᑈ䲒ҹߎ⦄ᣕ㓁䍄ᔎⱘᗕ࢓DŽ໻ᅫଚકӋḐЏ
㽕⬅㕢‫⥛∛ܗ‬੠ܼ⧗㒣⌢๲䭓᠔‫އ‬ᅮDŽ2011 ᑈܼ⧗㒣⌢๲䭓ᇍ໻ᅫଚકӋḐ≵᳝ᔎⱘᬃᣕDŽ2010 ᑈܼ⧗㒣
⌢๲䭓 4.9%ˈ㗠 2011 ᑈ乘䅵๲䭓 4.2%ˈ๲䗳䕗 2010 ᑈϟ䰡DŽབᵰ 2011 ᑈܼ⧗㒣⌢๲䭓Ў 4.2%ˈ䙷М໻
ᅫଚકᑇഛϞ⍼ᐙᑺЎ 10%ᎺেDŽབᵰⳂࠡⱘ໻ᅫଚકӋḐϡবˈ䙷М 2011 ᑈ໻ᅫଚકӋḐᑇഛϞछ㑺
8.3%ˈ಴ℸˈ2011 ᑈ㒣⌢๲䭓ᇍ໻ᅫଚકӋḐᬃᣕ᳝䰤DŽ㄀ѠϾᕅડܼ⧗໻ᅫଚકⱘ಴㋴ᰃ㕢‫ⷁˈ⥛∛ܗ‬
ᳳ‫ݙ‬㕢೑㒻㓁ᅲᮑ䞣࣪ᆑᵒⱘ䋻Ꮥᬓㄪˈ㕢‫ܗ‬䖬ᇚ㒻㓁䌀ؐˈ಴ℸˈⷁᳳ‫ݙ‬໻ᅫଚકӋḐϞछᇐ㟈ⱘ䕧ܹᗻ
䗮㚔य़࡯䖬ᇚࡴᔎDŽԚᰃ䱣ⴔ 2011 ᑈ㕢೑㒣⌢䍄〇ˈ㕢‫ܗ‬㒻㓁໻ᐙᑺ䌀ؐⱘৃ㛑ᗻ೼ϟ䰡ˈ㒻㓁ᓩ䍋໻ᅫ
ଚકӋḐᖿ䗳Ϟछⱘࡼ࡯ᇚ‫ޣ‬ᔅDŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 11
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 25˖ܼ⧗㒣⌢๲䭓ᰃ໻ᅫଚકӋḐϞछⱘ෎⸔ ˄%˅ ೒ 26˖㕢‫⥛∛ܗ‬Ϟछᇍ໻ᅫଚકӋḐ᳝ϔᅮⱘᡥࠊ˄%˅

ܼ⧗๲䭓 ଚકӋḐব࣪˄ে˅ 㕢‫ܗ‬ᣛ᭄ ଚકӋḐᣛ᭄˄ে˅
6 30 140 240
220
5 20 130
200
4 10 120 180
3 0 110 160
140
2 -10 100 120
1 -20 90 100
80
0 -30 80
60
-1 -40 70 40
93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 27˖໻ᅫଚકӋḐϟ䰡᳝ࡽ㓧੠䕧ܹᗻ䗮㚔 ˄%˅

໻ᅫଚકӋḐব࣪ PPIRM˄ে˅ PPIRM PPI

80 20 16
60 15 12
40 10 8
20 5 4
0 0 0
-20 -5 -4
-40 -10 -8
-60 -15 -12
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೼໻ᅫଚકӋḐϡߎ⦄໻ᐙᑺϞ⍼ⱘᚙ‫މ‬ϟˈ೑‫ॳݙ‬ᴤ᭭ӋḐϞ⍼ⱘᐙᑺгᇚ᳝䰤DŽ⬅Ѣॳᴤ᭭ӋḐᇍ
ᎹϮકӋḐᕅડᯢᰒˈ಴ℸˈ೼䕧ܹᗻ䗮㚔य़࡯ϡ໻ⱘᚙ‫މ‬ϟˈ೑‫ ݙ‬PPI ⱘϞ⍼ᐙᑺ᳝䰤DŽ঺໪ˈⳂࠡ೑‫ݙ‬
ॳᴤ᭭ᑧᄬձ✊‫ܙ‬䎇ˈⳌᇍѢग़৆ᑇഛ∈ᑇ⬹དDŽҢ PMI ⱘᑧᄬᣛ᭄ᴹⳟˈ⬅Ѣᄬ೼䗮㚔乘ᳳˈҞᑈॳᴤ
᭭ᑧᄬ↨ग़ᑈᑇഛ∈ᑇ᳈催ˈ䖭᳝ࡽѢ᳾ᴹॳᴤ᭭ӋḐಲ㨑ˈ᳔㒜ᏺࡼ PPI ಲ㨑DŽ

೒ 28˖2010 ᑈ৘᳜ॳᴤ᭭ᑧᄬᣛ᭄催Ѣग़৆∈ᑇ ˄%˅

2010ᑈ৘᳜ॳᴤ᭭ᑧᄬPMI 䖛এ6ᑈᑇഛᣛ᭄
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㄀ϝˈ亳કӋḐϞछय़࡯ⷁᳳࡴᔎˈ᯹㡖ৢᇚ‫ޣ‬ᔅDŽ亳કӋḐⷁᳳ‫ݙ‬䖬᳝Ϟछⱘय़࡯ˈԚᰃˈ2011 ᑈ亳
કӋḐϞ⍼Ӯ‫ޣ‬㓧DŽ

12 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

Ңᑧᄬᚙ‫މ‬ᴹⳟˈᴀ䕂亳કӋḐϞछЏ㽕ফࠄ⠽ӋϞ⍼乘ᳳᕅડˈկ㒭ᮍ䴶ⱘⷁ㔎ᑊϡ䴲ᐌϹ䞡ˈ᳾ᴹ
乘ᳳᬍবˈৃ㛑ᇐ㟈⠽ӋϞछ‫ޣ‬㓧DŽ⬅Ѣߎ⦄亳કӋḐϞछ乘ᳳˈӕϮࡴ໻њ亳કॳᴤ᭭ⱘᑧᄬˈ䖭೼ⷁᳳ
‫ࡴݙ‬໻њ亳કӋḐϞछⱘय़࡯DŽ㾖ᆳ亳કࡴᎹ㸠Ϯⱘॳᴤ᭭ᑧᄬᚙ‫މ‬থ⦄ˈ8 ᳜ӑܼ⧗亳કӋḐϞछˈ䖭ᇐ
㟈њ೑‫ݙ‬ӕϮࡴ໻њॳᴤ᭭ⱘᑧᄬˈҢ㗠гᇐ㟈೑‫ݙ‬亳કӋḐᖿ䗳ϞछDŽԚᰃ䖭⾡ᑧᄬᣕ㓁Ϟछϔ↉ᯊ䯈ҹ
ৢˈᇚ䲒ҹᬃᣕӋḐϞछˈ⫮㟇Ӯᇐ㟈݊ӋḐϟ䰡DŽҢग़৆ᴹⳟˈ೼催ᑧᄬᣕ㓁ϔ↉ᯊ䯈ৢˈ亳કӋḐⱘ⍼
ᐙᇚ᳝᠔ϟ䰡DŽ

೒ 29˖2010 ᑈ৘᳜亳ક㸠Ϯᑧᄬᣛ᭄催Ѣग़৆∈ᑇ˄%˅ ೒ 30˖ӕϮ๲ࡴᑧᄬᢝࡼњ亳કӋḐϞछ ˄%˅

2010ᑈ亳કࡴᎹ㸠Ϯᑧᄬᣛ᭄ 䖛এ6ᑈഛؐ PMIᄷ䇗亳કࡴᎹ㸠Ϯॳᴤ᭭ᑧᄬ˄3MMA˅
60 ᄷ䇗亳કӋḐ⦃↨˄3MMA,ে˅
58 57 3
56
55
54 2
52 53
50
51 1
48
46 49
44 0
47
42
40 45 -1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 05-03 06-03 07-03 08-03 09-03 10-03

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё䞛੼䆶ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё䞛੼䆶ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

Ң䚼ߚ亳ક਼ᳳᴹⳟˈ䚼ߚ亳કӋḐ䖯ܹ⍼Ӌ਼ᳳⱘৢᳳDŽ⣾㙝ӋḐϞछᰃᴀ⃵亳કӋḐ਼ᳳⱘϔϾ䞡
㽕᥼ࡼ಴㋴ˈҢ݊ব࣪ⱘ਼ᳳᴹⳟˈ݊ӋḐᏆ㒣䖯ܹ⍼Ӌ਼ᳳⱘৢᳳˈᯢᑈ᯹㡖ৢˈ݊ӋḐ䲒ҹ㒻㓁ᖿ䗳Ϟ
छDŽ䖥ᳳˈ⬅Ѣ‫ݏ‬⣾ⱘⲜ߽∈ᑇᯢᰒᦤ催ˈ⫳⣾ᄬᷣᯢᰒᘶ໡ˈ᳾ᴹկ㒭ᇚᯢᰒ๲ࡴˈ㙝㉏ӋḐᇚϟ䰡DŽ㬀
㦰ӋḐгᇚ䖯ܹӋḐಲ㨑ᯊᳳˈ⬅Ѣ㬀㦰ӋḐᣕ㓁Ϟछⱘᯊ䯈੠ᐙᑺഛ↨䕗໻ˈ䖭ᇚ਌ᓩ᳈໮ⱘ⫳ѻᡩܹˈ
䖥ᳳ⍼ᐙࡴ໻њᇍ㬀㦰⫳ѻⱘ㸹䌈ˈ಴ℸˈ᳾ᴹ㬀㦰ⱘկᑨгᇚ๲ࡴˈ݊ӋḐгৃ㛑ಲ㨑DŽ

೒ 31˖⫳⣾ᄬᷣԢ⚍ 6 Ͼ᳜ৢ⣾Ӌϟ䎠 ˄%˅ ೒ 32˖㬀㦰ӋḐ⍼ᐙᇚ䗤ℹಲ㨑 ˄3MMAˈ%˅

⫳⣾ᄬᷣ ⱑᴵ㙝ӋḐ˄ে˅ 50
47500 19
40
47000 18
46500 30
17
46000 20
45500 16
45000 10
15
44500 0
14
44000
13 -10
43500
43000 12 -20
08-12 09-3 09-6 09-9 09-12 10-3 10-6 10-9 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 13
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 33˖亳કӋḐ਼ᳳϢ乘⌟ ˄%˅
25

20

15

10

-5
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㄀ಯˈᬓㄪ䇗᥻ᇍ䗮㚔乘ᳳӮᔶ៤ᯢᰒⱘᕅડDŽ䖥ᳳ亳કӋḐϞछᏆ㒣ᓩ䍋ᬓᑰ催ᑺ݇⊼ˈ৘Ͼ㘠㛑䚼
䮼ᇍ♦԰‫ݰ‬ѻકӋḐࡴ໻њᠧߏ࡯ᑺˈ䚼ߚഄऎᇍ亳કӋḐ䖯㸠ᑆ乘DŽ䖭⾡ᬓㄪⷁᳳ‫ݙ‬ᑊϡӮᬍ୘կ∖Ḑሔˈ
Ԛᰃᇍ䗮㚔乘ᳳӮᔶ៤ϔᅮⱘᕅડDŽ݊⃵ˈࡴ໻䋻Ꮥ㋻㓽࡯ᑺˈгӮᕅડ䗮㚔乘ᳳDŽ䖥ᳳˈЁ༂ᇍ䗮㚔᥻ࠊ
ⱘᬓㄪ‫އ‬ᖗ೼ࡴᔎˈ乘䅵ᯢᑈ䋻Ꮥ๲䗳ᇚᯢᰒϟ䰡ˈ䖭ᇍ䗮㚔乘ᳳӮѻ⫳ϔᅮⱘᕅડDŽ

೒ 34˖䋻Ꮥ๲䭓ᇍ䗮㚔乘ᳳѻ⫳ϔᅮᕅડ ˄%˅
M2 ᳾ᴹ⠽Ӌ乘ᳳᣛ᭄˄ে˅
35 85
80
30
75
25 70

20 65
60
15
55
10 50
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

2.6 ⳌᇍӋḐ䇗ᭈϡӮᓩথ䭓ᳳ䗮㚔

ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈䗮㚔Ϟछৃ㛑⍝ঞⱘЏ㽕಴㋴ࣙᣀ˖Ꮉ䌘Ϟछᏺᴹⱘ៤ᴀ᥼ࡼ಴㋴ˈ䌘⑤⦃๗៤ᴀ᥼ࡼ
ⱘ⠽ӋϞछҹঞ݀݅ѻક䇗Ӌᏺᴹⱘ䗮㚔ϞछDŽ᳝ѯ㾖⚍᥂ℸ䅸ЎĀकѠѨā៥೑ᇚ㒣ग़催䗮㚔ˈ៥Ӏ䅸Ўˈ
བᵰ䋻Ꮥᬓㄪϡߎ⦄໻ⱘ༅䇃ˈ៥೑ϡӮߎ⦄䭓ᳳ䗮㚔DŽ

ϡᑨ䆹ᡞᎹ䌘Ϟ⍼ⳟ԰ᰃ䗮㚔Ϟछⱘ᳔㒜⑤༈DŽĀकѠѨāᯊᳳࢇࡼ࡯Ꮉ䌘ⱘব࣪ᇚ៤ЎϔϾ䞡㽕ⱘ㒣
⌢䆂乬DŽ䖥ᳳԢッࢇࡼ࡯ӋḐߎ⦄њᯢᰒϞछˈ䖭ᓩ䍋њ៤ᴀ᥼ࡼൟ䗮㚔ⱘᢙᖻDŽབᵰ᳾ᴹࢇࡼ࡯ӋḐϞछ
ᇐ㟈៤ᴀ᥼ࡼൟ䗮䋻㝼㚔ˈ䙷М䳔㽕ߚᵤϸϾ䯂乬ˈࢇࡼ࡯ӋḐϞछⱘ᥼ࡼ಴㋴ᰃҔМˈ݊⃵ˈࢇࡼ࡯ӋḐ
Ϟछᰃ৺ϔᅮ㛑Ӵᇐࠄ㒜ッ⠽ӋˈᑊϨᇐ㟈㒜ッ⠽ӋϞ⍼DŽ

Ꮉ䌘Ϟछ䳔㽕ᘏ䳔∖ᢝࡼDŽЁ೑䖛এⱘࢇࡼ࡯ӋḐϞछ෎ᴀᰃ䳔∖Ϟछᇐ㟈ⱘDŽࢇࡼ࡯ӋḐϞछᴀ䑿ϡ
ᑨ䆹៤Ўߚᵤ䗮㚔ⱘ䍋⚍ˈࢇࡼ࡯ӋḐⱘ‫އ‬ᅮгᰃ㒣⌢䖤㸠ᴀ䑿‫އ‬ᅮⱘDŽ䖛এϔ↉ᯊ䯈ҹᴹˈ䋻Ꮥկᑨ䖛ᖿ
ᰃᎹ䌘Ϟछ䖛ᖿⱘॳ಴DŽ䖛এᎹ䌘Ϟछ䕗ᖿⱘᑈӑˈ䛑ᰃ㋻䱣䋻Ꮥᖿ䗳ϞछⱘᑈӑDŽ⬅Ѣ䋻Ꮥկ㒭ࡴᖿˈᇐ
㟈䳔∖Ϟछˈ᠔ҹгᇐ㟈Ꮉ䌘ϞछDŽᎹ䌘ϞछЏ㽕䖬ᰃկ∖‫އ‬ᅮⱘˈ㒣⌢๲䭓‫އ‬ᅮࢇࡼⱘ䳔∖DŽ᮹ᴀ᳒㒣ߎ

14 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

⦄ⱘᎹ䌘੠ӋḐϞछ䛑ᰃ䋻Ꮥկᑨࡴᖿᓩ䍋ⱘDŽҢ៥೑㒣⌢๲䭓੠Ꮉ䌘๲䭓ᴹⳟˈ㒣⌢๲䗳Ꮖ㒣ᯢᰒϟ䰡ˈ
乘䅵᳾ᴹ㒣⌢๲䭓 9-10%ˈ಴ℸˈᎹ䌘᳾ᴹϡӮߎ⦄໻ᐙᑺϞछˈᑇഛ๲ᐙЎ 13%ᎺেDŽ

೒ 35˖㒣⌢๲䭓ϟ䰡‫ޣ‬㓧Ꮉ䌘Ϟ⍼य़࡯˄%˅

GDP˄5ᑈ⿏ࡼᑇഛ˅ GDP ᑇഛᎹ䌘˄ে˅

ᑇഛᎹ䌘˄5ᑈ⿏ࡼᑇഛˈে˅ 15
13 23 32
14
21
12 13 27
19 12 22
11 17 11
17
10 15 10
12
13 9
9 8 7
11
8 9 7 2
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 36˖Ꮉ䌘Ϟ⍼Џ㽕ᰃ䋻Ꮥ⦄䈵 ˄%˅ ೒ 37˖᮹ᴀ䋻ᏕǃᎹ䌘Ϣ CPI ˄%˅

M2 ᑇഛᎹ䌘˄ে˅ M2 WI˄ে˅ ˄ে˅

CPI
40 30 30

35 32 25
25
30 27
20
22 20
25
15
20 17 15
10
15 12
10 5
10 7
5 2 5 0
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

Ԣッࢇࡼ࡯ӋḐϞछϡᑨ䆹ⳟ԰ᰃࢇࡼ࡯ӋḐ᱂䘡Ϟछⱘ⦄䈵DŽ᳔䖥Ԣッࢇࡼ࡯ⱘᎹ䌘ϞछᏆ㒣៤Ўϔ
ϾᑓЎ݇⊼ⱘ䯂乬ˈ᳝ⱘ㾖⚍䅸Ўˈ䖭ᰃЁ೑ࢇࡼ࡯⬅䖛࠽৥ⷁ㔎ⱘ䕀বˈ಴ℸ䖭ᇚ᥼ࡼЁ೑㒣⌢䖯ܹ催䗮
㚔ᯊᳳDŽ✊㗠䖭⾡㾖⚍Ԑᰃ㗠䴲ˈᑊ≵᳝ⳟࠄԢッࢇࡼ࡯Ꮉ䌘Ϟ⍼ⱘॳ಴ᑊϡᰃᴹ㞾Ѣࢇࡼ࡯ⱘⷁ㔎ˈ㗠ᰃ
ᴹ㞾ѢԢッࢇࡼ࡯Ꮉ䌘ⱘ㸹ٓᗻϞ⍼DŽҢԢッࢇࡼ࡯ⱘ㸠ϮߚᏗᴹⳟˈ䖭ѯህϮҎਬЏ㽕ߚᏗ೼ࠊ䗴ϮǃԢ
ッ᳡ࡵϮǃ‫ݰ‬Ϯ੠ᓎㄥϮˈ⍝ঞ㸠ϮЏ㽕ᰃ‫ݰ‬Ϯǃ令佂Ϯǃ᠓ഄѻᓎㄥǃᆊᬓ᳡ࡵ੠ࠊ䗴ϮDŽҢ 2003 ᑈࠄ
2009 ᑈ䖭ѯ㸠ϮⱘᎹ䌘⍼ᐙᯢᰒԢѢᑇഛᎹ䌘⍼ᐙˈᎹ䌘ਜ⦄ߎথᬷⱘ䍟࢓˄े催Ꮉ䌘㸠ϮᎹ䌘Ϟछ䗳ᑺ
䍞ᖿ˅ DŽ⬅ѢԢッࢇࡼ࡯Ꮉ䌘Ϟ⍼䗳ᑺ㓧᜶ˈ㗠ϨජᏖ෎ᴀ⫳⌏䌍⫼ᖿ䗳ᦤ催˄ԣ᠓੠⫳⌏ᖙ䳔કӋḐϞ⍼˅ˈ
಴ℸˈԢッࢇࡼ࡯ⱘֱ⬭Ꮉ䌘˄߬ᯧᮃ᠔䇈ⱘ᳔ԢᎹ䌘˅䳔㽕ᦤ催DŽབᵰ㒣⌢๲䭓ֱᣕ䗖ᑺ๲䭓ˈ䋻Ꮥկ㒭
ֱᣕড়⧚∈ᑇˈ䙷МˈᎹ䌘ᘏԧ∈ᑇⱘϞ⍼ህ䲒ҹᣕ㓁໻ᐙ䍙䍞㒣⌢๲䭓ˈࢇࡼ࡯ᘏԧᚙ‫މ‬ህϡӮߎ⦄կϡ
ᑨ∖ˈাӮߎ⦄ϡৠ㉏ൟⱘࢇࡼ࡯Ꮉ䌘ⱘϞछᐙᑺϡϔ㟈ⱘব࣪ˈ䙷Мˈ䖭ᇍ䗮㚔ϡӮ䗴៤ᣕ㓁ⱘᕅડDŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 15
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 38˖03 ᑈ-09 ᑈ৘㸠ϮᎹ䌘⍼ᐙ ˄%˅

220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
ֵᙃ

᠓ഄѻ

ԣᆓ令佂

ሙ⇥᳡ࡵ

݀݅ㅵ⧚

ଚࡵ᳡ࡵ

ࠊ䗴Ϯ

‫ݰ‬Ϯ

ᓎㄥϮ

᭛ԧ

ि⫳

㸠Ϯᑇഛ

Ѹ䗮䖤䕧

∈⬉✸⇨

ᬭ㚆

⾥ⷨ

ᡍথ䳊ଂ

䞛ᥬϮ

䞥㵡ֱ䰽
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё೑㒳䅵ᑈ䡈ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㸼 4˖03 -09 ᑈ৘㸠ϮᎹ䌘⍼ᐙϢᎹ䌘 ˄%ˈ‫˅ܗ‬

㸠Ϯ Ꮉ䌘⍼ᐙ 2009 ᑈᑇഛᎹ䌘 2003 ᑈᑇഛᎹ䌘
ֵᙃ 86 59919 32244
᠓ഄѻ 90 32591 17182
ԣᆓ令佂 91 21193 11083
ሙ⇥᳡ࡵ 99 25704 12900
݀݅ㅵ⧚ 103 24551 12095
ଚࡵ᳡ࡵ 108 34318 16501
ࠊ䗴Ϯ 113 26599 12496
‫ݰ‬Ϯ 114 14911 6969
ᓎㄥϮ 115 24625 11478
᭛ԧ 122 38319 17268
ि⫳ 122 36380 16352
Ѹ䗮䖤䕧 127 36224 15973
∈⬉✸⇨ 128 42668 18752
ᬭ㚆 143 35042 14399
⾥ⷨ 146 50866 20636
ᡍথ䳊ଂ 165 29031 10939
䞛ᥬϮ 179 38224 13682
䞥㵡ֱ䰽 213 70265 22457
㸠Ϯᑇഛ 125 35635 15838
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё೑㒳䅵ᑈ䡈ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 39˖03-09 ᑈ৘㸠ϮᎹ䌘⍼ᐙϢᎹ䌘ℷⳌ݇˄ࠨ䰸ֵᙃ㸠Ϯ˅ ˄%ˈ‫˅ܗ‬

240 240
y = 0.0034x + 77.253 y = 0.0019x + 63.052
220 Ꮉ 220 Ꮉ
䌘 R2 = 0.1678 R2 = 0.5386
200 200 䌘
⍼ ⍼
180 ᐙ 180
ᐙ
160 160
140 140
120 120
100 100
80 2003ᑈᑇഛᎹ䌘 80 2009ᑈᑇഛᎹ䌘
60 60
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 10000 30000 50000 70000

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё೑㒳䅵ᑈ䡈ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

16 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 40˖Ꮉ䌘Ϟ⍼Џ㽕ᰃ㸹ٓᗻⱘ ˄%˅

25 ᳔ԢᎹ䌘๲䗳 ࢇഛৡНGDP๲䗳

20

15

10

0
2006ᑈ 2007ᑈ 2008ᑈ 2009ᑈ 2010ᑈ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 41˖03 ᑈ-09 ᑈජᏖ⫳⌏ᖙ䳔કӋḐ⍼ᐙ ˄%˅

50 45

40
32
30
20
20

10

0
亳ક ∈ǃ⬉ঞ➗᭭ ᠓⾳

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё೑㒳䅵ᑈ䡈ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

Ꮉ䌘Ϟछᑊϡϔᅮᇐ㟈⠽ӋϞ⍼DŽᎹ䌘Ϟ⍼ᇐ㟈᳔㒜⠽ӋϞ⍼䳔㽕⒵䎇ϸϾᴵӊ˖㄀ϔˈᎹ䌘Ϟ⍼ᖿѢ
ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛Ϟछ˗㄀ѠˈӕϮ㛑໳䕀႕Ꮉ䌘Ϟ⍼ᏺᴹⱘ៤ᴀϞ⍼DŽᎹ䌘Ϟ⍼བᵰԢѢࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛ⱘᦤ催ˈϡ
ԚϡӮ䗴៤⠽ӋϞ⍼ˈড㗠ৃ㛑ᇐ㟈⠽Ӌϟ䰡DŽᎹ䌘Ϟ⍼ӕϮ᳝ᯊ‫׭‬ᑊϡ㛑䗮䖛ѻક⍼Ӌⱘᮍᓣᇚ៤ᴀ䕀႕
ߎএˈ݊㒧ᵰᰃⲜ߽ऴ GDP ⱘ↨䞡ϟ䰡DŽ1997 ᑈҹৢˈᎹ䌘Ϟछ䗳ᑺ↨䕗ᖿˈ㗠ৠᳳ䗮㚔ᑊϡᰒ㨫ˈ䖭Џ
㽕ᰃࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛ⱘᦤ催DŽĀकѠѨā㾘ߦᦤߎࢇࡼ᡹䝀Ϣ㒣⌢ৠℹ๲䭓ˈᎹ䌘ⱘ๲䭓Ϣࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛ৠℹ๲䭓ˈ
䖭ᑊϡӮᇐ㟈䗮㚔DŽ

೒ 42˖䖛এЁ೑Ꮉ䌘Ϟछᑊϡᰃ⠽ӋϞछⱘॳ಴ ˄%˅

ᑇഛᎹ䌘ᣛ᭄ CPI˄ে˅
34 23

29 18
24
13
19
8
14

9 3

4 -2
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 17
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

៥ӀҢ㒧ᵘᮍ䴶ᴹ㗗ᆳᎹ䌘Ϟ⍼ϢѻકӋḐϞ⍼П䯈ⱘ݇㋏DŽ⬅Ѣࠊ䗴Ϯ੠‫ݰ‬Ϯⱘѻકᇍ⍜䌍⠽Ӌⱘᕅ
ડ᳔໻ˈ៥ӀҢ㸠Ϯ㾦ᑺᴹ㗗ᆳᎹ䌘Ϟ⍼Ϣ᳔㒜⠽ӋП䯈ⱘ݇㋏˄㗗ᆳᑈӑҡЎ 2003-2009 ᑈⱘ㌃䅵⍼ᐙ˅ DŽ
2003 ᑈࠄ 2009 ᑈˈࠊ䗴Ϯ੠‫ݰ‬ϮⱘᎹ䌘⍼ᐙߚ߿Ў 113%੠ 114%ˈԚᰃˈPPI ੠‫ݰ‬ѻકᬊ䌁ӋḐᣛ᭄ߚ߿
Ϟ⍼ 19.6%੠ 53.1%DŽӋḐⱘব࣪ড᯴ⱘᰃϡৠ㒣⌢䚼䮼ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛ⱘব࣪ˈࡴܹ WTO ҹৢˈЁ೑ࠊ䗴Ϯ
䖙䗳থሩˈࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛໻ᐙᦤ催ˈ㗠‫ݰ‬Ϯࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛ᦤ催䕗᜶ˈ಴ℸˈ‫ݰ‬Ϯ䚼䮼ⱘࢇࡼ᡹䝀ⱘᦤ催䳔㽕䗮䖛
ѻકӋḐᦤ催ᴹ㸹ٓˈ㗠ᎹϮ䚼䮼ⱘᎹ䌘ᦤ催䗮䖛ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛ᦤ催ህৃҹ㸹ٓDŽ2010 ᑈ䚼ߚ‫ݰ‬ѻકӋḐ໻
ᐙϞछˈ݊Ё⥝㉇ǃẝ㢅ǃ㊪ǃ∈ᵰ੠㬀㦰ӋḐϞ⍼ᯢᰒˈ䰸㬀㦰ҹ໪ˈ݊Ҫ‫ݰ‬ѻકӋḐ䛑ᰃ䖛এ 7 ᑈ⍼ᐙ
䕗Ԣⱘѻકˈ䖭Џ㽕ᰃ↨Ӌ䇗ᭈˈϢ݊ࢇࡼᆚ䲚⿟ᑺᑊ≵᳝ᯢᰒ݇㋏ˈ಴ℸˈгϡᰃࢇࡼ៤ᴀϞछ᠔᥼ࡼⱘDŽ

೒ 43˖‫ݰ‬ѻકϢᎹϮѻકӋḐব࣪ ˄2003 ᑈ=100˅

PPI ‫ݰ‬ѻક⫳ѻӋḐᣛ᭄
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
03 04 05 06 07 08 09

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 44˖2009 ᑈⳌᇍѢ 2003 ᑈⱘӋḐ∈ᑇ ˄2003 ᑈ=100˅

220

200

180

160

140

120

100
⾡ỡϮ
䈋⠽
ᇣ呺
』䈋
⥝㉇
໻䈚
⊍᭭
ẝ㢅
㊪᭭
㬀㦰
∈ᵰ
ᵫϮ
⬰⠻Ϯ
⣾
⠯
㕞
ᆊ⾑
㲟㉏
ཊ㉏
⏨Ϯ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

䌘⑤ӋḐ䇗ᭈǃࡴᔎ⦃๗ֱᡸϡӮᇐ㟈⠽Ӌⱘᣕ㓁ϞछDŽЁ೑໻䚼ߚ㛑⑤੠ⷓѻ䌘⑤䛑ᰃ೑䰙໻ᅫଚકˈ
䖭䚼ߚӋḐᏆ㒣ᅠܼϢܼ⧗໻ᅫଚકӋḐ᥹䔼ˈⳂࠡӋḐᏆ㒣Ꮦഎ࣪њˈᑊ≵᳝ᯢᰒԢԄDŽབᵰܼ⧗㒣⌢๲
䭓ֱᣕⳌᇍ〇ᅮˈ䙷М᳾ᴹ໻ᅫଚકӋḐгϡӮߎ⦄ᣕ㓁ⱘ໻ᐙᑺϞ⍼DŽೳഄ੠∈䌘⑤ⱘӋḐⳂࠡЏ㽕⬅ᬓ
ᑰ‫އ‬ᅮˈೳഄ៤ᴀ೼䖛এϔ↉ᯊᳳᏆ㒣ᯢᰒϞछˈ㗠ϨᏆ㒣ড᯴೼᠓ഄѻӋḐ䞠䴶˄Ԛᰃˈ᠓ӋⱘϞछˈⳂ
ࠡᑊ≵᳝ᅠܼড᯴೼⍜䌍⠽Ӌ੠⫳ѻ⠽Ӌ䞠䴶ˈ಴ℸˈ᳾ᴹ䱣ⴔ᠓⾳ӋḐⱘϞछˈ䖭ᇍ䗮㚔ⱘᕅડᇚ䗤ℹᰒ
⦄ˈ㗗㰥ࠄԣ᠓ᬃߎ↨䞡ϡ催ˈ᳾ᴹᇍ䗮㚔ⱘᕅડᇚ᳝䰤˅DŽ⦃๗៤ᴀⱘᦤ催ᇍ⠽ӋϞ⍼Ӯѻ⫳ᕅડˈԚᰃ
䖭⾡ᕅડᰃৃҹ᥻ࠊⱘDŽ⬅Ѣ⦃๗៤ᴀⱘϞछৃҹḍ᥂⼒Ӯৃҹ᥹ফⱘᮍᓣ䗤ℹ๲ࡴDŽḍ᥂᳒⤂ॄ˄2004 ᑈ˅
ḌㅫˈЁ೑⬅Ѣ⦃๗∵ᶧϢ⦃๗䗔࣪䗴៤ⱘ㒣⌢ᤳ༅໻㑺Ў GDP ⱘ 5-10%ˈབᵰ㑴ℷ䖭ϔᤳ༅г䳔㽕๲ࡴ
៤ᴀऴ GDP ⱘ 5-10%ˈᑊϨ೼ϔϾⳌᇍ䭓ⱘᯊ䯈䞠䖯㸠㑴ℷˈ䙷М䖭䗴៤ⱘ⠽ӋϞछᑊϡᰃ䴲ᐌᯢᰒDŽ

݀݅ѻકӋḐᬍ䴽Ӯᇍ⠽ӋϞछ䗴៤ϔᅮᕅડˈԚᕅડгϡӮᕜ໻DŽⳂࠡᬓᑰᅮӋⱘЏ㽕⍜䌍કᰃ∈ǃ
⬉ǃ✸⇨ǃᏖ‫ݙ‬Ѹ䗮੠ए⭫ᬭ㚆ㄝѻકDŽ∈ǃ⬉ǃ✸⇨੠Ꮦ‫ݙ‬Ѹ䗮ӋḐⳂࠡ䕗Ԣˈ᳾ᴹ䳔㽕ᯢᰒϞछˈԚᰃˈ

18 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

䖭ѯ݀݅ѻકऴ⍜䌍ⱘᬃߎ↨䞡↨䕗ԢˈⳂࠡাऴᘏ⍜䌍ᬃߎⱘ 5.5%ˈབᵰӋḐϞछ 1 ‫ˈס‬ᏺᴹ⍜䌍⠽Ӌ

ⱘϞछгা᳝ 5.5%DŽ㗠ए⭫੠ᬭ㚆ⱘӋḐᯢᰒ‫أ‬催ˈⷁᳳϡᑨ䆹⍼Ӌˈড㗠䳔㽕䰡ӋDŽ

㸼 5˖ᬓᑰ᥻ࠊ݀݅ѻકऴ CPI ↨䞡 ˄%˅

Ꮦ‫ݙ‬Ѹ䗮 ∈⬉➗᭭ ড়䅵
ऴ CPI ↨䞡 1.1% 4.4% 5.5%
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

Ң䭓ᳳᴹⳟˈᇐ㟈⠽ӋϞछⱘЏ㽕಴㋴ᰃ䋻Ꮥ಴㋴DŽ䋻Ꮥկ㒭‫އ‬ᅮњᘏ䳔∖ˈҢ㗠‫އ‬ᅮњࢇࡼⱘ䳔∖ˈ
䖯ϔℹᕅડࢇࡼ࡯៤ᴀˈ᳔㒜ᇐ㟈ѻકӋḐϞछDŽབᵰ䋻Ꮥⱘ䭓ᳳ๲䗳Ϣ㒣⌢ⱘ┰೼๲䭓Ⳍऍ䜡ˈ䙷Мˈࢇ
ࡼ៤ᴀⱘϞछা᳝ⷁᳳⱘᕅડˈাᰃ㑴ℷᖂ㾖㒣⌢乚ඳⱘӋḐϡড়⧚ˈ៪㗙ҙҙᰃ㸹ٓᗻⱘϞ⍼ˈϡӮߎ⦄
ᣕ㓁ⱘϞछˈ಴ℸˈгϡӮᇍ䗮㚔ѻ⫳ᣕ㓁ⱘय़࡯DŽ㓐ড়ҹϞ಴㋴ˈབᵰ㒣⌢๲䭓Ⳃᷛ⬹᳝ϟ䰡ˈ䋻Ꮥ๲䗳
ಲᔦЁᗻˈ䙷Мˈ䭓ᳳⱘ䗮㚔य़࡯Џ㽕ᴹ㞾ѢଚકӋḐⱘ↨Ӌ䇗ᭈ˄ࣙᣀ݀݅ѻક੠ࢇࡼ࡯ӋḐ˅ˈབᵰ䇈
᳾ᴹ 10 ᑈ䖭ѯӋḐᡁ᳆㛑໳㑴ℷˈ䙷М᳾ᴹ䗮㚔ৃҹֱᣕ೼ 3-4%ᎺেDŽ

೒ 45˖৘೑䋻Ꮥ๲䭓Ϣ䗮㚔 ˄%˅

䋻Ꮥ๲䭓Ϣ⍜䌍⠽Ӌ 䋻Ꮥ๲䭓Ϣᘏԧ⠽Ӌ๲䭓
60 60

40 40
inflation
inflation

20 20

0 0
45-degree angle 45-degree angle

0 20 40 60 0 20 40 60
Money Money

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖IMFˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 46˖Ё೑䋻Ꮥᘏ䞣Ϣ⍜䌍⠽Ӌ∈ᑇ ˄%˅
M2 CPI˄ে˅
700000 125
600000 120
500000
115
400000
110
300000
105
200000
100000 100

0 95
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 19
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

ϝǃ㋻㓽ᗻᬓㄪৃ㛑ਜ⦄Āࠡ㋻ৢᵒā䍄࢓
2010 ᑈ䗮㚔ϡᮁϞछˈ䖭֗Փᬓㄪ‫ߎخ‬ᖙ㽕ⱘ䇗ᭈDŽ2008 ᑈᑈᑩҹᴹˈ㒣⌢ᬓㄪ᥾ᮑϔⳈ䞛⫼ᆑᵒⱘ
䋻Ꮥᬓㄪǃ⿃ᵕⱘ䋶ᬓᬓㄪ੠᥼ࡼ㒧ᵘ䕀ൟⱘѻϮᬓㄪ੠ऎඳᤃ݈㾘ߦDŽ៥Ӏ䅸Ўˈ2011 ᑈᓔྟˈᬓㄪ㒘ড়
ᇚথ⫳ব࣪ˈ݊Ёˈব᳔࣪ᯢᰒⱘᰃ䋻Ꮥᬓㄪˈ乘䅵䋻Ꮥᬓㄪᇚ⬅ॳᴹ䗖ᑺᆑᵒ䕀৥〇‫ع‬DŽ㗠 2011 ᑈЁˈ
⬅Ѣ䗮㚔य़࡯ⱘ㓧㾷ˈᬓㄪᇚৃ㛑᳝᠔䇗ᭈDŽ

3.1 䋻ᏕᬓㄪᑈЁ៪ᢽᴎᖂ䇗

䋻Ꮥᬓㄪ䕀৥〇‫ˈع‬᭄䞣ൟ੠ӋḐൟⱘᬓㄪᎹ‫݋‬䛑ᇚ‫ߎخ‬䇗ᭈDŽ佪‫ˈܜ‬ḍ᥂䖛এ 9 ᑈ䗮㚔Ϣ䋻Ꮥᬓㄪⱘ
݇㋏ᴹⳟˈ䗮㚔催ᛣੇⴔ᳾ᴹ䋻Ꮥֵ䌋๲䗳ϟ䰡ˈ⬅Ѣ䖥ᳳ䗮㚔↨䕗催ˈ಴ℸˈ᳾ᴹ䋻Ꮥֵ䌋๲䗳ᇚ᳝᠔ಲ
㨑ˈ៥Ӏ乘ᳳ M2 ໻㑺๲䭓Ў 15-16%ˈֵ䌋๲䭓 15-16%Ꮊেˈेᮄ๲䌋ℒ㑺 7-7.5 ϛғᎺেDŽЎњ᥻ࠊ䋻
Ꮥֵ䌋ⱘ๲䗳ˈᄬℒ‫ޚ‬໛䞥Ꮉ‫݋‬੠݀ᓔᏖഎ᪡԰䛑ᇚՓ⫼DŽ䖭ϸϾᬓㄪᎹ‫݋‬䜡ড়Փ⫼ˈ᳔㒜ᇍ‫ކ‬䌌ᯧ乎Ꮒǃ
FDIǃࠄᳳ༂⼼੠⛁䪅ᏺᴹⱘ෎⸔䋻ᏕᡩᬒDŽ

៥Ӏ䅸Ўˈ2011 ᑈ〇‫ⱘع‬䋻ᏕᬓㄪϡӮ೼ܼᑈПЁֱᣕϡবⱘ࡯ᑺˈᇚḍ᥂䗮㚔ব࣪㗠ࡼᗕᖂ䇗DŽ2011
ᑈϟञᑈ䗮㚔य़࡯ᇚ᳝᠔‫ޣ‬ᔅˈ䋻Ꮥֵ䌋ⱘ᥻ࠊ㡖༣гᇚ䱣Пᖂ䇗ˈ᥻ࠊ࡯ᑺ᳝᠔ᬒᵒDŽҢ䗮㚔੠๲䭓ⱘࡼ
ᗕᴹⳟˈ2011 ᑈᑈЁৃ㛑ᰃᬓㄪᖂ䇗݇䬂ᯊ⚍DŽ

೒ 47˖〇‫ⱘع‬䋻Ꮥᬓㄪᇚ䱣ⴔ䗮㚔य़࡯ⱘব࣪㗠ᖂ䇗˄%˅ ೒ 48˖ֵ䌋㡖༣ᇚ䱣䗮㚔य़࡯㗠䇗ᭈ ˄%˅

CPI˄䗚䕈˅ M2˄ে˅ PPI˄䗚䕈˅ 䌋ℒ˄ে˅

15 40
乘 30 12 乘
6 ⌟ ⌟ 35
9
30
25 6
1 3 25
20 0 20
-3
-4 15
15 -6
-9 10
-9 10 -12 5
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

݊⃵ˈ乘䅵߽⥛䳔㽕㒻㓁Ϟ䇗 2-3 ⃵ᎺেDŽϔᮍ䴶ˈ2011 ᑈ䗮㚔ᇚ䖒ࠄ 3.8%ˈϞञᑈᇚ䖒ࠄ 4%ҹϞˈ

䖭ϔ⢊‫މ‬ϟˈ䋳߽⥛↨䕗Ϲ䞡ˈ䖭䳔㽕ᦤ催߽⥛∈ᑇDŽ঺ϔᮍ䴶ˈӕϮⲜ߽⢊‫މ‬㡃དˈROA Ϣ䌋ℒ߽⥛ⱘ
Ꮒ乱䖒ࠄग़৆ᮄ催ˈ䖭ϔᏂ乱∈ᑇᛣੇⴔӕϮ‫݋‬᳝ᔎ⚜ⱘᡩ䌘䳔∖੠䌋ℒ䳔∖ˈЎњՓ䖭ϔᏂ乱∈ᑇಲࠄড়
⧚∈ᑇˈབ 2005-2006 ᑈⱘ∈ᑇˈ䌋ℒ߽⥛䳔㽕೼Ⳃࠡⱘ෎⸔ϞϞ䇗 3 ⃵Ꮊেˈ݊Ёˈ乘䅵 2010 ᑈ 1 ⃵ˈ
2011 ᑈ 2 ⃵DŽ

20 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 49˖ֱᣕ⠽ӋⳌᇍᑇ〇䳔㽕㓈ᣕℷ߽⥛ ˄%˅ ೒ 50˖ӕϮⲜ߽䖒ࠄ䕗催∈ᑇ ˄%˅

CPI 1ᑈᄬℒ߽⥛ ⳳᅲ߽⥛ ROA 䌋ℒ߽⥛ ROA-䌋ℒ߽⥛

12 8 2
10 7 1
8 6 0
6 -1
5
4 -2
4
2 -3
0 3 -4
-2 2 -5
-4 1 -6
-6 0 -7
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㄀ϝˈ乘䅵Ҏ⇥Ꮥᇚ㒻㓁छؐ 5%ᎺেDŽҎ⇥Ꮥछؐⱘ䍟࢓䖬ᇚ㒻㓁ֱᣕˈ᳾ᴹҎ⇥Ꮥछؐⱘ䗳ᑺЏ㽕
㗗㰥೑‫ݙ‬ѻϮⱘᡓফ㛑࡯ˈҹঞ⫳ѻ㽕㋴Ңߎষ䚼䮼䕀৥‫ݙ‬䳔䚼䮼ⱘ䗳ᑺˈ಴ℸˈҎ⇥Ꮥ∛⥛ϡӮߎ⦄໻ᐙ
ᑺⱘ䇗ᭈˈ2011 ᑈҡᇚछؐ 5%ᎺেDŽ
೒ 51˖Ҏ⇥Ꮥᇚֱᣕᑈഛछؐ 5%Ꮊে ˄%˅
ᅲ䰙᳝ᬜ∛⥛ ৡН᳝ᬜ∛⥛ 㕢‫ܥܗ‬Ҏ⇥Ꮥ˄ে˅
125 8.5

120
8.0
115

110 7.5

105
7.0
100

95 6.5
05 06 07 08 09 10

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

3.2 ⿃ᵕⱘ䋶ᬓᬓㄪᇚ䌃こܼᑈ
2011 ᑈ໪䳔ᄬ೼䕗໻ⱘϡ⹂ᅮᗻˈ೼䋻Ꮥᬓㄪᬊ㋻ⱘᚙ‫މ‬ϟˈ䋶ᬓᬓㄪབᵰ䕀৥㋻㓽ⱘ䆱ˈ䖭ᇚᇐ㟈㒣
⌢๲䗳ᯢᰒϟ䰡ˈЎℸ䋶ᬓᬓㄪ䖬ᇚ㒻㓁ֱᣕ⿃ᵕⱘপ৥ˈ乘䅵䖬ᇚᅝᥦ䋶ᬓ䌸ᄫ 8000 ғᎺেˈऴ GDP ⱘ
↨䞡Ў 2%ᎺেDŽℸ໪ˈ2010 ᑈ䋶ᬓᬊܹᖿ䗳๲䭓ˈ䋶ᬓ᳝ϔᅮⱘⲜԭˈ㒻㓁ᅲᮑ⿃ᵕⱘ䋶ᬓᬓㄪ᳝↨䕗ད
ⱘ෎⸔DŽ
೒ 52˖㒻㓁ᅲᮑ⿃ᵕⱘ䋶ᬓᬓㄪ ˄%˅ ೒ 53˖䋶ᬓ䌸ᄫϢ㒣⌢๲䭓 ˄%˅
ߎষ๲䗳 ⳳᅲ䋶ᬓᬃߎ๲䗳˄ে˅ GDP 䋶ᬓ䌸ᄫ/GDP˄ে˅
40 25 15 1
14 乘
30 ⌟
20 13 0
20 12
15
10 11 -1
10 10
0
9 -2
-10 5
8
-20 0 7 -3
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 21
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

⿃ᵕⱘ䋶ᬓᬓㄪᇚ೼ҹϟϝᮍ䴶ᕫҹԧ⦄˖
ϔᰃ䞡⚍᥼䖯㒧ᵘᗻ‫⿢ޣ‬DŽ1˅‫ܡޣ‬ЁᇣൟӕϮ⿢䋳ˈᇍ㡖㛑‫ޣ‬ᥦ੠ᖂ߽ӕϮ䖯㸠䌈ᙃˈ䖯ϔℹ⏅࣪ᠻ
㸠lj೑ࡵ䰶݇Ѣ䖯ϔℹ֗䖯ЁᇣӕϮথሩⱘ㢹ᑆᛣ㾕NJˈⳌ݇⿢⥛᳝ᳯ䖯ϔℹϟ䇗˗2˅ࡴᖿ᥼䖯๲ؐ⿢䕀ൟˈ
⫳ѻൟ᳡ࡵϮҹ๲ؐ⿢পҷ㧹Ϯ⿢᥼䖯䗳ᑺ᳝ᳯࡴᖿˈⳌ݇㸠Ϯ㓐ড়⿢⥛᳝ᳯҢ 5%ϟ䰡㟇 4%˗3˅ሙ⇥Ͼ
Ҏ᠔ᕫ⿢ⱘ䇗ᭈˈ䍋ᕕ⚍੠⿢⥛᳝ᳯ‫⃵ݡ‬䇗ᭈ˗4˅ᰃ᥼䖯䌘⑤⿢ᬍ䴽ˈⳂࠡ䌘⑤⿢ᬍ䴽Ꮖ㒣೼ᮄ⭚៤ࡳ䆩
⚍ˈ᳾ᴹᇚᠽ໻䆩⚍ऎඳ੠䆩⚍ѻકDŽ✸⚁ǃ∈੠ⷓ⷇᳝ᳯ៤Ў㄀Ѡᡍ䌘⑤⿢ᬍ䴽ક⾡DŽ
Ѡᰃᓊ㓁ᬃᣕ⇥⫳ˈᦤ催⼒Ӯ⽣߽DŽ1˅᥼䖯ᬊܹߚ䜡ᬍ䴽ˈ䗮䖛ᦤ催ЁԢᬊܹҎ㕸Ꮉ䌘䕙ҹ䰡ԢϾҎ
᠔ᕫ⿢䋳䖒ࠄ֗⇥⫳ⱘⳂⱘ˗2˅ᬃᣕֱ䱰ᗻԣ᠓ᓎ䆒DŽֱ䱰ᗻԣ᠓ᓎ䆒ᰃЁ༂催ᑺ䞡㾚ⱘ⇥⫳Ꮉ⿟ˈ᳾ᴹ
ᡩ䌘㾘῵ᇚ㒻㓁ᠽ໻ˈЁ༂䋶ᬓᬃᣕ࡯ᑺгᇚᯢᰒ๲ᔎ˗3˅⬅ѢⳂࠡᵕッ໽⇨䍞ᴹ䍞乥㐕ˈ‫ݰ‬ᴥ∈߽ᓎ䆒
᳝ᳯ៤Ў 2011 ᑈ䋶ᬓ䞡⚍ᬃᣕⱘ乍ⳂDŽ
ϝᰃऎඳϞ᥼ࡼЁ㽓䚼ഄऎথሩˈ⡍߿ᰃ㽓䚼ᇥ᭄⇥ᮣഄऎⱘ㒣⌢থሩDŽ2011 ᑈᇚ㒻㓁ࡴ໻ᇍ㽓䚼ഄ
ऎ㒣⌢থሩⱘᬃᣕˈᬓㄪЏ㽕ⴔ࡯Ѣ㽓䚼෎⸔䆒ᮑᓎ䆒੠ѻϮ䕀⿏䜡༫ᓎ䆒DŽ㽓䚼ᇥ᭄⇥ᮣഄऎⱘথሩᇚ᳝
᠔ࡴᖿˈЏ㽕⍝ঞⳕऎᰃᮄ⭚ǃ㽓㮣੠䴦⍋ㄝⳕऎDŽ2010 ᑈᇍᮄ⭚ⱘᇍষᬃᧈᬓㄪᇚ䖯ϔℹ㨑ᅲˈᮄ⭚ⱘ
ᎹϮ࣪䖯⿟ᇚࡴ໻᥼䖯DŽ

3.3 ѻϮᬓㄪĀ㒘ড়ᓣāߎৄ

ࡴᖿ⎬≄㨑ৢѻ㛑ˈ᥼䖯㡖㛑‫ޣ‬ᥦDŽࡴᖿ䕀ব㒣⌢থሩᮍᓣǃ䇟∖㓓㡆থሩˈᰃ៥೑ĀकѠѨā㾘ߦⱘ
Џ㽕ӏࡵ੠ⳂᷛDŽ
ĀकѠѨā㾘ߦᇚӮࠊᅮ᳈ࡴϹḐⱘ㡖㛑⦃ֱ㾘ߦˈ䰸⒵䎇ऩԡ GDP 㛑㗫੠Ѡ⇻࣪⺇ϟ䰡
ⱘ㑺ᴳᗻᣛᷛ໪ˈ䖬ᇚᔎ࣪⦃ֱǃ䋼䞣ㄝᣛᷛⱘ㑺ᴳᗻ԰⫼ˈ᥼䖯䌘⑤કⱘӋ⿢ᬍ䴽ˈࡴᖿᔶ៤᳝߽Ѣ㨑ৢ
ѻ㛑䗔ߎⱘ䭓ᬜᴎࠊDŽ↨བˈ೼⦃ֱ㾘ߦЁᇚ๲ࡴ⇼∂੠⇼⇻࣪⠽ϸϾĀᅲᮑᘏ䞣᥻ࠊāⱘᮄᣛᷛˈ䗤ℹ⬅
ऩϔ∵ᶧ⠽᥻ࠊ䕀৥໮䞡∵ᶧ⠽᥻ࠊDŽ2011 ᑈᰃĀकѠѨāᓔሔᑈˈ៥Ӏ乘䅵ৃ㛑䖯ϔℹߎৄⱘᬓㄪࣙᣀ˖
㒻㓁ᅠ୘Ⳍ݇㸠Ϯ‫ܹޚ‬ᷛ‫ޚ‬ǃᡔᴃᷛ‫ޚ‬ㄝᷛ‫ޚ‬ԧ㋏ⱘࠊᅮ˗㒻㓁ࠊᅮ䞡⚍㸠Ϯ⎬≄㨑ৢѻ㛑ⱘ‫݋‬ԧӏࡵ˗ࡴ
໻䞡⚍㸠Ϯǃ䞡⚍ഄऎⱘ㡖㛑䰡㗫੠‫ޣ‬ᥦ⊏∵⊏⧚ˈࠊᅮ䩜ᇍ䞡⚍㸠Ϯ੠䞡⚍ഄऎⱘЏ㽕∵ᶧ⠽ᥦᬒⳂᷛ˗
ࡴ໻Ё༂䋶ᬓ䌈ᙃⱘࡲ⊩ᡩܹ໻䞣䌘䞥ˈ᥼䖯੠ᬃᣕӕϮᡔᴃᬍ䗴˗໻࡯থሩᕾ⦃㒣⌢ˈᡞ䌘⑤㓐ড়߽⫼ǃ
‫ࠊݡ‬䗴ǃ‫⫳ݡ‬䞥ሲ߽⫼ǃ೎ԧᑳ⠽߽⫼ㄝ԰Ўᬃᣕⱘ䞡⚍ᮍ৥DŽ
᥼䖯Ӵ㒳㸠ϮѻϮ䕀⿏੠‫ݐ‬ᑊ䞡㒘DŽ2010 ᑈ೑ᆊⳌ㒻ߎৄњlj݇Ѣ֗䖯ӕϮ‫ݐ‬ᑊ䞡㒘ⱘᛣ㾕NJǃlj݇Ѣ
ࡴᖿए㥃㸠Ϯ㒧ᵘ䇗ᭈⱘᣛᇐᛣ㾕NJǃ lj݇Ѣࡴᖿ✸ⷓӕϮ‫ݐ‬ᑊ䞡㒘㢹ᑆᛣ㾕ⱘ䗮ⶹNJㄝϔ㋏߫᥼䖯㸠Ϯ‫ݐ‬ᑊ
䞡㒘ⱘᬓㄪˈ៥Ӏ乘䅵 2011 ᑈᬓᑰӮࡴᖿ䜡༫ᬓㄪⱘࠊᅮ੠㨑ᅲˈ䖭ᇚࡴᖿҹए㥃ǃ≑䔺ǃ䩶䪕ǃ∈⊹ǃ
ᴎẄࠊ䗴ǃ⬉㾷䪱ǃ⿔ೳǃ✸⚁ㄝЎҷ㸼Ӵ㒳ѻϮⱘᭈড়䗳ᑺˈᦤ催䲚Ёᑺǃ᥼䖯ᡔᴃ䖯ℹ੠㞾Џ߯ᮄǃ⎬
≄㨑ৢѻ㛑ǃय़㓽䖛࠽ѻ㛑ǃ֗䖯㡖㛑‫ޣ‬ᥦDŽℸ໪ˈ2011 ᑈೈ㒩lj݇ѢЁ㽓䚼ഄऎᡓ᥹ѻϮ䕀⿏ⱘᣛᇐᛣ㾕NJ
੠lj݇Ѣ᥼䖯㒎㒛ϮѻϮ䕀⿏ⱘᣛᇐᛣ㾕NJⱘ䜡༫ᬓㄪᇚӮ䗤ℹᅠ୘ˈ䖭ᇚ᥼ࡼ㒎㒛Ϯǃ᳡㺙ǃ⥽‫݋‬ǃᆊ⬉ǃ
㺙໛ǃ⷇࣪ㄝ㸠ϮҢϰ䚼ഄऎ৥Ё㽓䚼ഄऎⱘẃᑺ䕀⿏DŽ
෍㚆੠থሩᮄ݈ѻϮDŽ乘䅵 2011 ᑈ䩜ᇍ㡖㛑⦃ֱǃᮄϔҷֵᙃᡔᴃǃᮄ㛑⑤ǃᮄ㛑⑤≑䔺ǃ⫳⠽ǃ催
ッ㺙໛ࠊ䗴੠ᮄᴤ᭭ㄝᮄ݈乚ඳⱘ‫݋‬ԧᡊᣕᬓㄪӮⳌ㒻ߎৄDŽ↨བˈᇍᮄ݈ѻϮ乚ඳⱘӕϮᡔᬍ乍Ⳃǃᡔᴃ
߯ᮄ⌏ࡼ㒭ќᬓㄪᗻᬃᣕˈৃ㛑↣ᑈᅝᥦ 200 ғ‫ⱘܗ‬ᡔᬍᡩ䌘ᬃᣕ㟾ぎ㟾໽ǃ⍋⋟Ꮉ⿟㺙໛੠催ッᱎ㛑㺙໛
㸠Ϯথሩ˗প⍜᱂䗮≑䔺⿢䌍Ӭᚴҹࠎ▔ᮄ㛑⑤≑䔺⍜䌍ˈ乘䅵 2011 ᑈᇣᥦ䞣Ь⫼䔺䌁㕂⿢Ӭᚴᬓㄪᇚ㹿
প⍜ˈ݇Ѣ≑䔺ϟеӬᚴǃ≑䔺ҹᮻᤶᮄⱘ㸹䌈ᬓㄪ៪㓽∈៪প⍜˄䖲㓁ᠻ㸠䖥ϸᑈ≑䔺ҹᮻᤶᮄᬓㄪˈг
ᇚѢ 12 ᳜ 31 ᮹ࠄᳳˈ㸹䌈⬇䇋ⱘফ⧚ᳳ䰤៾㟇 2011 ᑈ 1 ᳜ 31 ᮹ˈᕜৃ㛑 2011 ᑈϡ‫ݡ‬ᠻ㸠˅˗ࡴ໻ᮄ݈ѻ
Ϯ⿢ᬊӬᚴ࡯ᑺˈ೼Āϝ‫ܡ‬ϝञāӬᚴᳳ⒵ৢˈ㗗㰥ߎৄᇍ݊᠔ᕫ⿢೼ 15%෎⸔Ϟ‫ޣ‬ञᕕᬊⱘ⿢ᬊӬᚴᬓㄪˈ
ㄝㄝDŽ
֗䖯‫ݰ‬Ϯ੠᳡ࡵϮথሩDŽЎ֗䖯ѻϮ㒧ᵘ⬅ᎹϮЏᇐ䕀৥ϝ⃵ѻϮण䇗থሩˈ2011 ᑈᬓᑰӮᇍ‫ݰ‬Ϯ੠
᳡ࡵϮ᳝᠔ؒ᭰DŽ乘䅵‫ݰ‬Ϯᮍ䴶ᇚӮࡴ໻‫߽∈⬄ݰ‬ᓎ䆒ᡩ䌘˗䞛প䌋ℒ䌈ᙃ੠䋶ᬓ㸹ࡽϸ⾡ᮍᓣˈࡴ໻೑ᆊ
ᡊᣕথሩ‫ݰ‬ϮѻϮ࣪ⱘᡊᣕ࡯ᑺˈ䋶ᬓ㸹ࡽ䌘䞥䞡⚍⫼Ѣ⾡ỡ෎ഄ乍Ⳃǃ‫ݏ‬Ⅺ෎ഄ乍Ⳃǃ‫ݰ‬ѻકࡴᎹ乍Ⳃǃ
⌕䗮䆒ᮑ乍ⳂㄝಯϾᮍ䴶˗᳡ࡵϮᮍ䴶ˈ乘䅵ᇚӮࠊᅮᡊᣕᖂൟ᳡ࡵ㉏ӕϮ੠⫳ѻᗻ᳡ࡵϮথሩӬᚴᬓㄪˈ
ᅠ୘᥼䖯lj݇Ѣࡴᖿᆊᬓ᳡ࡵϮথሩⱘᛣ㾕NJ㨑ᅲⱘ䜡༫ᬓㄪ˗᥼䖯᳡ࡵϮ乚ඳㅵ⧚ԧࠊᬍ䴽ˈ↨བԢぎぎ
ඳㅵ⧚ԧࠊᬍ䴽ǃড়ৠ㛑⑤ㅵ⧚ԧࠊㄝDŽ

22 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

ಯǃ᳝⽣߽๲䭓ϟⱘϝ໻䳔∖

4.1 ਞ߿Ԣ⽣߽๲䭓

䖥ᑈᴹˈ៥೑㒣⌢ֱᣕњ催䗳๲䭓ˈGDP ᑈᑇഛ๲䗳᥹䖥 10%ˈ09 ᑈ GDP ᘏ䞣ԡܼ߫⧗㄀ϝˈ✊㗠ˈ㒣

⌢ᘏ䞣ᖿ䗳᫔छⱘ㚠ৢˈሙ⇥⽣߽ⱘⳌᇍᦤछ䗳ᑺ߭ᯢᰒ⒲ৢˈᭈԧ㒣⌢๲䭓໘ѢԢ⽣߽⢊ᗕˈЏ㽕ԧ⦄೼˖

佪‫ˈܜ‬៥೑ሙ⇥ᬊܹⱘᦤछ䗳ᑺ㨑ৢѢৠᳳⱘ㒣⌢๲䗳ˈࢇࡼ᡹䝀↨䞡ϟ䰡ˈ㗠ৠᳳ໪䌌乎Ꮒ߭໻ᐙᦤ
छˈ䖭㸼ᯢ䭓ᳳⱘ催乎Ꮒᰃҹय़ԢᎹҎᎹ䌘੠⡎⡆ሙ⇥⽣߽ЎҷӋⱘDŽ៥೑᳔ԢᎹ䌘⍼ᐙ೼ 2010 ᑈПࠡ䛑
ԢѢৡН GDP ๲䗳ˈԢッࢇࡼ࡯ӋḐ๲䗳㓧᜶ˈᎹ䌘ⱘ๲䗳㽕䖰ԢѢࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛ⱘ๲䗳DŽ

݊⃵ˈ䭓ᳳ催乎Ꮒ᠔⿃㌃ⱘᎼ乱໪∛‫ټ‬໛ˈㄝѢ៥೑৥㕢೑ᦤկԢ៤ᴀⱘ䭓ᳳ䌋ℒˈϢℸⳌᇍⱘᰃˈ೑
‫ֱ⼒ݙ‬ए⭫䌘⑤կ㒭ϡ䎇ˈ೼᳝⮙ϡԣ䰶ⱘҎ㕸Ёˈ70%ҹϞⱘ↨՟ᰃ⬅Ѣ㒣⌢ೄ䲒DŽ

㄀ϝˈӕϮ䭓ᳳ߽⫼⼒ӮⱘĀԢӋ䌘⑤ā⫮㟇Ā‫ܡ‬䌍䌘⑤āˈ䌘⑤㽕㋴ӋḐ‫أ‬Ԣϡҙ䗴៤Ϲ䞡⌾䌍ˈӕ
Ϯ⫳ѻ㒣㧹䖬㔎У䰡Ԣ㛑㗫ⱘ▔ࢅDŽ៥೑↣߯䗴 1 㕢‫ ⱘܗ‬GDP ᠔⍜㗫ⱘ㛑⑤ᰃ㕢೑ⱘ 4 ‫ˈס‬᮹ᴀⱘ 8 ‫ˈס‬
Ⳃࠡ៥೑㛑⑤߽⫼ᬜ⥛ҙЎ 33%ˈ↨থ䖒೑ᆊԢ 10 Ͼⱒߚ⚍ᎺেDŽ㉫ᬒൟ㒣⌢ᏺᴹϹ䞡ⱘ⦃๗∵ᶧˈҹ␪
⊞Ў՟ˈ៥ӀϝߚПϔҹϞⱘ␪⊞∈ᑧ∈䋼䛑໘Ѣ᳔Ꮒⱘࡷč㑻DŽ

ᭈԧⳟˈሙ⇥೼ᬊܹǃ⦃๗ǃ⼒ֱ乚ඳЁⱘ⽣߽๲䭓㨑ৢѢ㒣⌢๲䗳ˈ䖭ᇐ㟈ሙ⇥ϾҎ⫳⌏ֵᖗᑺ᳝᠔
ϟ䰡ˈGDP ⱘ๲䭓ᑊ≵᳝᳝ᬜֱ䱰ජеሙ⇥ⱘ⫳⌏䋼䞣ˈᅣ㾖㒣⌢থሩ៤ᵰ≵᳝Ⳍᑨԧ⦄ࠄሙ⇥ᖂ㾖㒣⌢
߽ⲞᛳফϞDŽ

៥Ӏ䅸Ўˈ᳾ᴹ㒣⌢ᖙᇚ䕀৥᳝⽣߽ⱘ๲䭓῵ᓣˈЏ㽕ԧ⦄೼˖㄀ϔˈࢇࡼ᡹䝀↨䞡ᦤछˈ⍜䌍๲䗳䍙
䖛㒣⌢๲䭓˗㄀Ѡˈᡩ䌘ҹ‫ݙ‬䳔Ўᇐ৥ˈ᳡ࡵѢሙ⇥ሙԣǃѸ䗮ǃए⭫ㄝ෎⸔ֱ䱰ˈ֗䖯Ё㽓䚼ण䇗থሩ˗
㄀ϝˈᨦᓗĀ乎Ꮒ㄀ϔāⱘᇐ৥ˈ䌌ᯧᬊᬃ䗤⏤ᑇ㸵˗㄀ಯˈᓔਃѻϮᮄḐሔˈᬍ䗴⎬≄Ӵ㒳㨑ৢѻϮˈᦤ
छᮄ݈ѻϮ↨䞡ˈ๲ࡴᎹϮ䰘ࡴؐ⥛DŽ

೒ 54˖乎Ꮒ‫ޣ‬ᇥˈሙ⇥ᬊܹᦤछ ˄%˅ ೒ 55˖ࢇࡼ᡹䝀ᏺࡼሙ⇥⍜䌍↨䞡ᦤछ ˄%˅

乎ᏂऴGDP↨䞡 ሙ⇥⍜䌍↨䞡 ࢇࡼ᡹䝀↨䞡

11 55
ᅲ䰙ජ䬛ሙ⇥ᬊܹ๲䗳ϢGDP๲䗳Ꮒ乱
9 50
7
45
5
3 40
1
35
-1
-3 30
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 23
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 56˖៥೑ऩԡ GDP 㗫㛑‫أ‬催 ˄ग‫⊍ܟ‬ᔧ䞣/㕢‫˅ܗ‬ ೒ 57˖៥೑໻໮᭄␪⊞∈ᑧ䛑໘Ѣ∈䋼᳔Ꮒⱘࡷč㑻˄%˅

ऩԡGDP㛑㗫
0 3.9
0.8
19.2 ĉ㉏
0.6 34.6
Ċ㉏
0.4
ċ㉏
0.2 Č㉏
č㉏
0
23.1
᮹ᴀ

䶽೑

㣅೑

㕢೑

Ꮘ㽓

ॄᑺ

Ё೑
ࡷč㉏
֘㔫ᮃ

19.2

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ĀЁ೑⦃๗㒳䅵݀᡹ 2009āˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 58˖ऩԡ㛑㗫䰡Ԣ ˄ৼᷛ‫✸ޚ‬/ϛ‫˅ܗ‬ ೒ 59˖೼᳝⮙ϡԣ䰶ⱘሙ 70%ҹϞⱘ↨՟ᰃ⬅Ѣ㒣⌢ೄ䲒

ऩԡGDP㛑㗫:ܼ೑˄ৼᷛ‫✸ޚ‬/ϛ‫˅ܗ‬
1.40

1.30 11.3
7.7 㒣⌢ೄ䲒㗠᳾ԣ䰶
1.20
कϔѨऩԡGDP㛑㗫䰡Ԣ20%
1.10 㞾䅸Ў≵ᖙ㽕
10.7
1.00 ᮴ᯊ䯈
0.90 कѠѨ䰡Ԣ17.3% 70.3 ݊Ҫ
0.80

0.70
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ि⫳䚼ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 60˖ሙ⇥⫳⌏∈ᑇᦤछֵᖗ䳔㽕ᦤछ ˄5 ߚࠊ˅

ᇍ೑ᆊ㒣⌢থሩⱘֵᖗ ᇍϾҎ⫳⌏∈ᑇᦤछⱘֵᖗ
4.5

3.5

3
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ā2009 ᑈЁ೑ሙ⇥⫳⌏䋼䞣ᣛ᭄䇗ᶹ᡹ਞāˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

24 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 61˖៥೑Ⳍᇍࢇࡼ៤ᴀ೼ϟ䰡 ೒ 62˖2010 ᑈҹ᳔ࠡԢᎹ䌘⍼ᐙԢѢ GDP ๲䗳 ˄%˅

ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛˄ग‫ܗ‬/Ҏ˅ ҎഛᎹ䌘˄ग‫˅ܗ‬ ᳔ԢᎹ䌘๲䗳 ࢇഛৡНGDP๲䗳

70 25
60
20
50
40 15

30 10
20
5
10
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006ᑈ 2007ᑈ 2008ᑈ 2009ᑈ 2010ᑈ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

4.2 ⍜䌍乚䎥๲䭓

4.2.1 ৢᎹϮ࣪ᯊᳳˈᅠ୘ⱘ෎⸔䆒ᮑᇚ᥼ࡼ⍜䌍⥛ⱘᦤछ
ĀकѠѨā㾘ߦᓎ䆂ᯢ⹂ᦤߎ˖Āᡞᠽ໻⍜䌍䳔∖԰Ўᠽ໻‫ݙ‬䳔ⱘ៬⬹䞡⚍ˈ䖯ϔℹ䞞ᬒජеሙ⇥⍜䌍
┰࡯ˈ䗤ℹՓ៥೑೑‫ݙ‬Ꮦഎᘏԧ㾘῵ԡሙϪ⬠ࠡ߫DŽā೑䰙↨䕗ⳟˈ៥೑ᔧࠡ䌁ф࡯ᑇӋϟⱘҎഛ GDP ҟѢ
ЁԢᬊܹ೑ᆊ੠Ёㄝᬊܹ೑ᆊП䯈ˈ㗠䖭ϸ㉏೑ᆊⱘሙ⇥⍜䌍߭䖒ࠄ 55%ˈ催Ѣ៥೑ሙ⇥⍜䌍 20 Ͼⱒߚ⚍DŽ
៥೑ⱘሙ⇥⍜䌍⥛Ⳍᇍৠㄝᬊܹⱘ೑ᆊᯢᰒ‫أ‬Ԣˈ㗠ᬓᑰ⍜䌍⥛߭෎ᴀヺড়ᑇഛ∈ᑇˈ䖭㸼ᯢᠽ໻ሙ⇥⍜䌍
ᰃᠽ໻‫ݙ‬䳔ⱘ݇䬂DŽ

៥Ӏ䅸Ўˈҹ⡎⡆ԢッࢇࡼᎹҎ⽣߽ⱘߎষᇐ৥๲䭓῵ᓣᇚ೼᳾ᴹᕫҹᬍবˈᦤछሙ⇥ᬊܹˈ֗䖯⍜䌍
ᠽ໻‫ݙ‬䳔ᇚ៤ЎЏᇐ๲䭓῵ᓣDŽ䱣䱣ⴔ៥೑㒣⌢থሩࠄᎹϮ࣪ৢᳳˈህϮ㒧ᵘⱘব࣪੠೑ᆊᬓㄪⱘ᥼ࡼˈ᳾ᴹ
5 ᑈሙ⇥⍜䌍⥛ᇚϞछDŽ៥೑䖯ܹᎹϮ࣪ৢᳳˈ໻䞣ⱘ෎⸔ᓎ䆒Ꮖ㒣ᅠ៤ˈЎ⍜䌍ⱘᦤछᠧདњ৘乍⹀ӊ෎
⸔ˈࢇࡼկ∖݇㋏থ⫳ϔᅮᬍবˈ᳈໮ࢇࡼ࡯ᇚ䕀৥ࢇࡼ᡹䝀↨䞡䕗催ⱘ᳡ࡵϮ䚼䮼ˈࡴϞᬓᑰᬊܹߚ䜡ᬓ
ㄪⱘ䜡ড়ˈᇚ᥼ࡼࢇࡼ᡹䝀ऴ೑⇥ᬊܹ↨䞡ⱘϞछˈ㗠䗤ℹᅠ୘ⱘ⼒ֱǃ෎ᓎㄝ䜡༫᥾ᮑˈ᳔㒜ᇚ֗䖯ሙ⇥
⍜䌍⥛ⱘಲछDŽ

೒ 63˖៥೑ሙ⇥⍜䌍Ⳍ↨݊Ҫ೑ᆊᯢᰒ‫أ‬Ԣ ˄%˅

ሙ⇥᳔㒜⍜䌍 ᬓᑰ᳔㒜⍜䌍 ҎഛGDP˄ে䕈PPP˅

80 40000
70 35000
60 30000
50 25000
40 20000
30 15000
20 10000
10 5000
0 0
Ԣᬊܹ೑ᆊ ЁԢᬊܹ೑ᆊ Ё೑ Ёㄝᬊܹ೑ᆊЁ催ᬊܹ೑ᆊ 催ᬊܹ೑ᆊ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WDIˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㒣⌢থሩ䰊↉Ϟⳟˈᣝ✻䪅㒇䞠ߚ㉏⊩ˈЁ೑Ⳃࠡ໘ѢᎹϮ࣪ⱘৢ䕀ൟᯊᳳDŽ៥೑䖥ᑈᴹ໻㾘῵෎⸔䆒
ᮑᡩ䌘ˈϔ㋏߫Ѹ䗮੠ජᏖᓎ䆒ˈᏆ㒣Ўሙ⇥⍜䌍༴ᅮњ䴲ᐌདⱘ⹀ӊ෎⸔DŽҹ≑䔺⍜䌍Ў՟ˈ៥೑৘ⳕҎ
ഛජᏖ䘧䏃䴶⿃੠Ҏഛ≑䔺ᢹ᳝䞣៤ℷ↨ˈ䖭㸼ᯢᅠ୘෎⸔䆒ᮑⱘᴵӊϟˈሙ⇥ᇚ᳈ؒ৥Ѣ䌁ф≑䔺ˈৠᯊˈ
থ䖒ⱘ䘧䏃ᓎ䆒ᇚ䰡Ԣߎ㸠៤ᴀˈ᥼ࡼᮙ␌Ϯⱘ๲䭓ˈ䖯㗠ᢝࡼ令佂ଚϮⱘ㐕㤷ˈ᳔㒜ᦤछሙ⇥⍜䌍⥛DŽℸ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 25
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

໪ˈ䱣ⴔ⼒ֱࠊᑺⱘᅠ୘ˈሙ⇥乘䰆ᗻ‫ټ‬㪘ᇚ䗤ℹϟ䰡DŽ᳾ᴹᑈ‫ࠊ؛‬ᑺⱘ᥼ᑓ੠ଚϮֱ䰽ⱘ᱂ঞˈᇚⳈ᥹֗
䖯ሙ⇥⽣߽∈ᑇⱘϞछˈ᳝߽Ѣ֗䖯ᮙ␌ㄝ᳡ࡵѻϮⱘথሩ੠ሙ⇥ֱ䰽ѻકⱘ⍜䌍DŽ

೒ 64˖៥೑Ꮖ㒣ℹܹ⍜䌍⥛ᦤछⱘ䰊↉ ˄%ˈ㕢‫˅ܗ‬

᳔㒜⍜䌍⥛ ҎഛGDP˄ে䕈PPP˅
100 40000
35000
80
30000
60 25000
20000
40 15000
10000
20
5000
0 0
Ԣᬊܹ೑ᆊ ЁԢᬊܹ೑ᆊ Ё೑ Ёㄝᬊܹ೑ᆊ Ё催ᬊܹ೑ᆊ 催ᬊܹ೑ᆊ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WDIˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 65˖៥೑৘ⳕҎഛජᏖ䘧䏃䴶⿃੠Ҏഛ≑䔺ᢹ᳝䞣៤ℷ↨ ೒ 66˖䘧䏃Ѹ䗮ᓎ䆒᮹䍟ᅠ୘ ˄ϛ݀䞠˅

ҎഛජᏖ䘧䏃䴶⿃˄ᑇᮍ㉇˅ 䫎ㄥ݀䏃䞠⿟
250
14
ⱒ᠋ᆊᒁ≑䔺ᢹ᳝䞣

12 200
10
150
8
6 100
4
50
2
0 0
6 11 16 21 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

4.2.2 ࢇࡼ᡹䝀ᇚᦤछ
៥೑ህϮ㒧ᵘⱘবࡼᇚ᥼ࡼࢇࡼ᡹䝀ⱘᦤछˈᑊ៤Ў⍜䌍⥛ಲछⱘ‫ݙ‬೼ࡼ࡯DŽ⬅ѢԢッࢇࡼ࡯կ䳔Ⳍᇍ
㋻ᓴˈᎹ䌘Ϟ⍼ˈߎষᇐ৥ⱘ㒣⌢ᔶᗕ䗤ℹ䕀বˈ᳈໮ࢇࡼ࡯䕀৥᳡ࡵϮˈᦤछܼ⼒Ӯࢇࡼ᡹䝀↨䞡㑺 2 Ͼ
乘ᳳࢇࡼ᡹䝀↨䞡ᇚ೼ 5 ᑈ‫ݙ‬Ϟछ 3 Ͼⱒߚ⚍DŽ
ⱒߚ⚍ˈ㗗㰥ࠄ೑ᆊ㒧ᵘᗻ‫⿢ޣ‬ᬓㄪⱘ䖯ϔℹ᥼䖯ˈ乘

Ԣッࢇࡼ࡯կ∖䍟㋻ᇚ᥼ࡼሙ⇥ᬊܹ⢊‫މ‬ᬍ୘DŽ᳾ᴹ៥೑ࢇࡼ࡯կ∖㋻ᓴЏ㽕䲚Ё೼Ԣッࢇࡼ࡯㗠䴲ᘏ
䞣⶯Ⳓˈࢇࡼ࡯ӋḐবࡼ䍟࢓ᰃĀᡔᎹӋḐ䍊䍙ⱑ乚ā ˈ䇗ᭈЏ㽕䲚Ё೼Ԣッࠊ䗴Ϯ੠ϔѯᡔᴃ৿䞣䕗Ԣⱘ
Ꮉ⾡ˈϞ⍼ⱘЏ㽕ࡼ࡯ᰃ⫳⌏៤ᴀⱘᖿ䗳ᦤछ੠㸹ٓᗻϞ⍼ˈ᳔㒜㸠Ϯ䯈੠㸠Ϯ‫ݙ‬䚼ⱘᬊܹᏂ䎱ᇚ㓽ᇣˈ䖭
ᇚᦤछࢇࡼ㗙ⱘ⽣߽∈ᑇDŽ㾖ᆳࢇࡼᏖഎⱘ㒧ᵘব࣪থ⦄ˈ䖥ᑈᴹˈ䱣ⴔ໻ᄺᠽ᢯ˈࢇࡼ࡯䳔∖㔎ষⱘᄺग़
㽕∖䗤ℹҢ 2001 ᑈⱘĀ໻ᄺҹϞāবЎњᔧࠡⱘĀ催Ёঞҹϟā
ˈᭈԧࢇࡼ࡯Ꮦഎ⢊ᗕҢकᑈࠡⱘĀᴥ䞠ᴹ
њϾ໻ᄺ⫳ā䕀বЎĀ⇥Ꮉ㤦āDŽ

26 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 67˖2011 ᑈৢ៥೑ⱘࢇࡼҎষ↨䞡ᇚߎ⦄ϟ䰡 ˄%˅

58

56

54

52

50
D1980 D1985 D1990 D1995 D2000 D2005 D2010 D2015 D2020

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑䰙ࢇᎹᑈ䡈ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 68˖ህϮᏖഎ⬅Ā໻ᄺ⫳կ㒭ϡ䎇ā䕀ЎĀ⇥Ꮉ㤦ā
˄%˅ ೒ 69˖ᔧࠡࢇࡼ࡯կ∖⶯ⳒЏ㽕䲚Ё೼Ԣッቫԡ˄%˅

2001 2006 2010.3Q ࢇࡼ࡯䳔∖੠կ㒭๲䗳Ꮒ乱

25
1.3
20
15
1.1
10

0.9 5
0
0.7 -5
-10
0.5 -15
໻ᄺҹϞ ᡔ᷵໻ϧ 催Ёঞҹϟ ߱㑻ᡔ㛑 Ё㑻ᡔ㛑 催㑻ᡔ㛑 ᡔᏜ 催㑻ᡔᏜ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё೑ࢇࡼ࡯ᏖഎˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё೑ࢇࡼ࡯ᏖഎˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㸼 6˖ࢇࡼ࡯կ∖⶯ⳒЏ㽕䲚Ё೼Ԣッቫԡ ˄%˅
ࢇࡼ࡯䳔∖๲䗳 ࢇࡼ࡯կ㒭๲䗳 ࢇࡼ࡯䳔∖੠կ㒭๲䗳Ꮒ乱
߱㑻ᡔ㛑 20.90 2.20 18.70
Ё㑻ᡔ㛑 10.80 0.50 10.30
催㑻ᡔ㛑 18.40 11.70 6.70
ᡔᏜ 10.70 22.80 -12.10
催㑻ᡔᏜ 11.20 8.90 2.30
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё೑ࢇࡼ࡯ᏖഎˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

ࢇࡼ࡯ᇚ᳈໮䕀৥᳡ࡵϮˈ᳝ࡽѢࢇࡼ᡹䝀↨䞡ᦤछDŽ᳾ᴹⱘࢇࡼ࡯Ꮦഎϡҙᄬ೼ⴔⳌᇍӋḐϞⱘ䇗ᭈˈ
㸠ϮߚᏗϞгᇚߎ⦄ϔᅮⱘব࣪ˈԢッࢇࡼ࡯᭄䞣ⱘ‫ޣ‬ᇥ੠Ꮉ䌘ⱘϞ⍼ˈᇚ֗Փ᳈໮ࢇࡼ࡯Ңߎষ䚼䮼䞞ᬒ
ߎᴹˈ䕀৥᳡ࡵϮᏖഎDŽ

㄀ϔˈ催㋴䋼Ҏᠡկ㒭‫ܙ‬䎇ˈ‫ܙ‬䎇ⱘҎ࡯䌘ᴀ䗖ড়催ッ᳡ࡵϮথሩDŽҢկ∖⢊‫މ‬ᇍ↨ⳟˈᔧࠡҎ࡯㔎ষ
Џ㽕䲚Ё೼Ԣᡔᴃ৿䞣ⱘ߱㑻ቫԡˈ㗠໻ϧҹϞҎᠡⱘࢇࡼ࡯կ㒭‫ܙ‬䎇ˈᔧࠡ䚼ߚҎ࡯䌘ᴀ䖬≵᳝ԧ⦄೼㒣
⌢⌏ࡼЁˈ᳾ᴹҎ࡯䌘ᴀⱘᦤछ䖬᳝䕗໻ぎ䯈ˈ䖭ᇚ᳝ࡽࢇࡼ࡯կ㒭⬅ऩ㒃᭄䞣๲ࡴ䗤ℹ৥䋼䞣ᦤछ䕀বˈ
⒵䎇催ッ᳡ࡵϮⱘথሩ䳔㽕DŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 27
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 70˖៥೑催㋴䋼Ҏᠡկ㒭‫ܙ‬䎇 ೒ 71˖↣ 100 ৡࢇࡼ㗙Ёফ䖛催ㄝᬭ㚆ⱘҎ᭄ ˄Ҏ˅

ቫԡկ∖↨ 14
1.2
1.1 12
1 10
0.9
0.8 8
0.7 6
0.6
0.5 4
催Ё

໻ϧ

໻ᄺ

⸩຿
߱Ёঞҹϟ

2
0
1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё೑㒳䅵ᑈ䡈ˈ೑䰙ࢇᎹᑈ䡈ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㄀Ѡˈए⭫ǃ‫ݏ‬㗕ҹঞሙ⇥᳡ࡵㄝᄬ೼䕗໻ህϮ㔎ষDŽि⫳䚼lj2010 Ё೑ि⫳㒳䅵ᑈ䡈NJᰒ⼎ˈҹ䶽
೑ᔧࠡⱘᷛ‫᥼ޚ‬ㅫˈ៥೑एᏜǃষ㜨एᏜǃᡸ຿੠ए⭫ᑞԡⱘ㔎ষߚ߿೼ 40 ϛǃ82 ϛǃ460 ϛ੠ 770 ϛDŽ
ৠᯊˈҢ 1980 ᑈ㟇 2008 ᑈˈ៥೑ 65 ቕҹϞ㗕啘Ҏষ↨䞡ᦤछњ 3 Ͼⱒߚ⚍ҹϞˈԚ↣गҎⱘएᏜ᭄ै෎
ᴀ≵᳝ব࣪ˈ៥೑ⱘҎষ㗕啘࣪䍟࢓䳔㽕᳈໮ⱘए⭫‫ݏ‬㗕᳡ࡵկ㒭DŽ2010 㟇 2020 ᑈ䯈ˈ៥೑ 65 ቕҹϞҎ
ষᇚ๲ࡴ 5500 ϛˈ65 ቕҹϞҎষ↨䞡ᇚҢᔧࠡⱘ 8.2%ᦤछ㟇 11.7%DŽᣝ✻থ䖒೑ᆊ‫ݏ‬㗕᳡ࡵᷛ‫ޚ‬䅵ㅫˈ៥
೑‫ݏ‬㗕ᑞԡ㔎ষ೼ 300 ϛᓴᎺেˈᡸ⧚Ҏਬ㔎ষ೼ 160 ϛҎᎺেDŽ

㸼 7˖៥೑ⱘए⭫‫ݏ‬㗕䌘⑤㔎ষᕜ໻
Ё೑˄↣ϛҎ˅ 䶽೑˄↣ϛҎ˅ ᮹ᴀ˄↣ϛҎ˅ ៥೑ᘏ㔎ষ˄ϛҎ˅
एᏜ 14 17 21 40
ষ㜨एᏜ 1 14 7 82
ए⭫䌘⑤
ᡸ຿ 10 44 95 460
ए⭫ᑞԡ 30 86 139 770
Ё೑˄↣ϛ㗕Ҏ˅ থ䖒೑ᆊϔ㠀∈ᑇ˄↣ϛ㗕Ҏ˅
‫ݏ‬㗕䌘⑤ ᡸ⧚Ҏਬ 20 170 160
‫ݏ‬㗕ᑞԡ 230 500 300
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖lj2010 Ё೑ि⫳㒳䅵ᑈ䡈NJˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 72˖៥೑ए⭫կ㒭Ϲ䞡ϡ䎇 ˄ϛҎᑇഛ˅

Ё೑ ᮹ᴀ 䶽೑
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
एᏜ ষ㜨एᏜ ᡸ຿ ᑞԡ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖lj2010 Ё೑ि⫳㒳䅵ᑈ䡈NJˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

28 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 73˖៥೑ⱘए⭫Ҏਬկ㒭㔎ষᕜ໻ ˄ϛ˅ ೒ 74˖ए⭫⍜䌍կ㒭Ϲ䞡ϡ䎇 ˄%˅

⦄᳝ 㔎ষ ए䰶ᑞԡ๲䗳 ԣ䰶Ҏ᭄๲䗳
20

ᑞԡ 400 770
15
ᡸ຿ 130 460
10
ষ㜨एᏜ 13 82
5
एᏜ 180 40
0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖lj2010 Ё೑ि⫳㒳䅵ᑈ䡈NJˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖㒳䅵ᑈ䡈ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 75˖ए⭫կ㒭≵᳝䎳ϞҎষ㗕啘࣪ ˄%/Ҏ˅ ೒ 76˖‫ݏ‬㗕᳡ࡵҎਬկ㒭Ϲ䞡ⷁ㔎 ˄%˅

65ቕҹϞҎষ↨䞡 ↣गҎएᏜ᭄˄ে䕈˅ ⦄᳝ 㔎ষ
12 4
10
3 ᡸ⧚Ҏਬ 20 160
8
6 2
4
1 ‫ݏ‬㗕ᑞԡ 260 300
2
0 0
1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2008

2010

2015

2020

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖㒳䅵ᑈ䡈ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖lj2010 Ё೑ि⫳㒳䅵ᑈ䡈NJˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㄀ϝˈ᳡ࡵϮህϮ↨䞡ⱘϞछᇚᦤछ೑⇥ᬊܹЁⱘࢇࡼ᡹䝀↨䞡DŽ⬅Ѣ᳡ࡵϮⱘࢇࡼ᡹䝀↨䞡ᯢᰒ催Ѣ
ᎹϮ䚼䮼ˈ᳡ࡵϮ↨䞡ⱘᦤछ᳝ࡽѢᭈԧߚ䜡Ḑሔ৥᳝߽Ѣࢇࡼӑ乱ⱘᮍ৥থሩDŽҙए⭫‫ݏ‬㗕ㄝሙ⇥᳡ࡵϮˈ
ህ䳔㽕 1000 ϛᎺেⱘህϮ䕀⿏ˈ㓐ড়㗗㰥ࠄ⫳ѻᗻ᳡ࡵϮ੠⫳⌏ൟ᳡ࡵϮⱘথሩ䳔∖ˈ៥Ӏ乘ᳳĀ ĀकѠѨā
ᳳ䯈᳡ࡵϮህϮҎ᭄㟇ᇥ๲ࡴ 6000 ϛҎˈ᳡ࡵϮህϮऴᘏህϮҎ᭄ⱘ↨䞡ᦤछ 5 Ͼⱒߚ⚍ҹϞDŽ

ህϮ㒧ᵘⱘব࣪੠ᬓㄪⱘ᥼ࡼᇚ೼ҹϟ޴ᮍ䴶ᕅડ߱⃵ߚ䜡Ёࢇࡼ᡹䝀ⱘ↨䞡DŽ佪‫⬅ˈܜ‬Ѣ᳡ࡵϮࢇࡼ
᡹䝀ⳌᇍᎹϮ䚼䮼催ߎ 20 Ͼ໮ⱒߚ⚍ˈ᳡ࡵϮህϮ↨䞡ᦤछ 5 Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈ䖭ᇚⳈ᥹ᦤछࢇࡼ᡹䝀㑺 1.5 Ͼ
ⱒߚ⚍˗݊⃵ˈ㗗㰥ࠄᎹϮ䚼䮼Ԣッࢇࡼ࡯ᬊܹⱘᬍ୘ˈ᳾ᴹ৘ⳕϞ䇗᳔ԢᎹ䌘ᷛ‫ⱘޚ‬ᐙᑺᇚ催ѢৡН GDP
๲䗳ˈᇚՓࢇࡼ᡹䝀ᦤछ㑺 0.5 Ͼⱒߚ⚍˗᳔ৢˈ㗗㰥ࠄ೑ᆊⱘ㒧ᵘᗻ‫⿢ޣ‬ᬜᵰˈ2009 ᑈˈ๲ؐ⿢ᬍ䴽‫⿢ޣ‬
㑺 1400 ғˈ៥Ӏ乘ᳳ䱣ⴔ๲ؐ⿢ᬍ䴽ⱘϡᮁ᥼䖯ˈ᳾ᴹ↣ᑈ๲ؐ⿢੠ᖂ߽ӕϮ⿢ᬊ‫ܡޣ‬㑺 1000 ғˈ๲ࡴࢇ
㓐ড়ҹϞߚᵤˈ乘ᳳᭈԧࢇࡼ᡹䝀Ӯ೼᳾ᴹ 5 ᑈ
ࡼ᡹䝀㑺 600 ғˈ㌃䅵 5 ᑈᕅડᬜᵰৃ䖒 1 Ͼⱒߚ⚍ᎺেDŽ㓐
Ϟछ㑺 3 Ͼⱒߚ⚍DŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 29
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 77˖᳡ࡵϮЁⱘࢇࡼ᡹䝀↨䞡ᯢᰒ催ѢᎹϮ䚼䮼 ˄%˅

㸠Ϯ‫ࡼࢇݙ‬᡹䝀↨䞡˄2004˅
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
ᎹϮ ᓎㄥϮ ᳡ࡵϮ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈlj㒣⌢ⷨおNJˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

4.2.3 ሙ⇥⍜䌍⥛Ϟछ 2-3 Ͼⱒߚ⚍

⬅Ѣሙ⇥ᬊܹᰃ⍜䌍ⱘ᳔Џ㽕ᕅડ಴㋴ˈࢇࡼ᡹䝀↨䞡Ϟछ 1 Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈᇚᦤछሙ⇥⍜䌍⥛ᇚᦤछ 0.79
Ͼⱒߚ⚍DŽ䗮䖛ᇍࢇࡼկ∖Ḑሔⱘ⌟ㅫˈ៥Ӏ乘ᳳࢇࡼ᡹䝀ᇚ೼ 2015 ᑈϞछ 3 Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈ䖭ᇚ᥼ࡼሙ⇥⍜
䌍⥛Ϟछ 2-3 Ͼⱒߚ⚍DŽҢ៥೑᳾ᴹ 5 ᑈⱘҎষᑈ啘㒧ᵘব࣪䍟࢓Ϟⳟˈ݊ЁϢᑈ䕏ҎⳌ݇ⱘሙԣǃစФ㉏
⍜䌍੠㗕ᑈҎⱘए⭫⍜䌍ᇚᰃЏ㽕๲䭓ⱘ䞡⚍DŽ

೒ 78˖៥೑ⱘࢇࡼ᡹䝀੠᳔㒜⍜䌍↨䞡䍄࢓催ᑺϔ㟈 ˄%˅

ሙ⇥⍜䌍↨䞡 ࢇࡼ᡹䝀↨䞡
55

50

45

40

35

30
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖UN dataˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

Ā20+ā੠Ā65+āᇚ᥼ࡼሙԣǃ≑䔺ǃᆊ⬉ǃစФǃए⭫⍜䌍DŽϡৠᯊᳳⱘҎষᑈ啘ᵘ៤ˈ㛑໳೼ϔᅮ
⿟ᑺϞЏᇐ৘㉏⍜䌍કⱘⳌᇍ๲䗳ˈҢ៥೑᳾ᴹ 5 ᑈⱘҎষ㒧ᵘ๲䭓䍟࢓ϞⳟˈϢᑈ䕏ҎⳌ݇ⱘሙԣ㉏ǃစ
Ф㉏⍜䌍੠㗕ᑈҎⱘए⭫⍜䌍ᇚᰃЏ㽕ⱘ๲䭓⚍DŽ

佪‫ˈܜ‬ৠ᮹ᴀǃ䶽೑Ⳍ↨ˈ៥೑ሙ⇥⍜䌍Ёⱘ亳ક㸷ⴔ↨՟ᯢᰒ‫أ‬催ˈ㗠Ѹ䗮䗮䆃੠᭛စ↨䞡᳝߭ϔᅮ
Ꮒ䎱ˈ䱣ⴔ៥೑ሙ⇥∈ᑇⱘᦤछˈሙ⇥⫳⌏ᮍᓣᖙ✊Ӯ৥থ䖒㒣⌢ԧ䴴ᢶDŽ

݊⃵ˈ᳾ᴹ 5 ᑈ៥೑ 20 㟇 30 ቕ੠ 65 ቕҹϞⱘ㗕啘Ҏষ↨䞡ᇚ䕗ᖿᦤ催DŽ2006 ᑈᓔྟˈ៥೑ 20 㟇 29

ቕⱘҎষ↨䞡ߎ⦄䕗ᖿϞ⍼ˈ䖭⊶Ϟ⍼ᇚᣕ㓁ࠄ 2013 ᑈˈᑊ೼ 2017 ᑈࠡ䛑㓈ᣕ䕗催∈ᑇDŽᑈ䕏Ҏᢹ᳝᳈催
ⱘᑇഛ⍜䌍⥛ˈܼ⼒Ӯ 20-30 ቕҎষ↨䞡ⱘᦤछˈᇚᣕ㓁‫⫳ڀ‬ᇍԣ᠓ǃ≑䔺ǃᆊ⬉ǃစФㄝ⍜䌍કⱘ䳔∖DŽ
Ϣℸৠᯊˈ65 ቕⱘҎষ↨䞡ᇚ㞾 2010 ᑈ䍋ߎ⦄䕗ᖿⱘ๲䭓ˈए⭫ֱ‫ع‬ㄝᇚᣕ㓁៤Ў⛁⚍⍜䌍DŽ

᳔ৢˈҢկ㒭ሖ䴶Ϟ䆆ˈ᭛࣪ѻϮ੠ए⭫ѻϮгᰃ೑ᆊᬓㄪ䞡⚍ᡊᣕⱘᇍ䈵ˈ䱣ⴔए⭫ㄝ݀݅џϮ乚ඳ
൘ᮁ䗤ℹᬒᓔˈ᳾ᴹᬓㄪᇚ哧ࢅথሩଚϮए⭫‫ݏ‬㗕ᴎᵘˈ᥼ᑓ‫ݏ‬㗕ᡸ⧚ֱ䰽ˈᑊৃ㛑ᇍԢᬊܹ㗕Ҏܹԣ‫ݏ‬㗕
ᴎᵘ䖯㸠㸹䌈ᬓㄪˈ䖭ѯ䛑ᇚ᳝ࡽѢ๲ࡴկ㒭ˈᦤछⳌ݇᳡ࡵѻક⍜䌍DŽ

30 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 79˖Ё೑ሙ⇥⍜䌍㒧ᵘⳌᇍ䶽೑ⱘᏂᓖ ೒ 80˖Ё೑ሙ⇥⍜䌍㒧ᵘⳌᇍ᮹ᴀⱘᏂᓖ
11 15

11
7
7
3
3
-1
-1

-5 -5
ᆊᒁ䆒໛

ए⭫ֱ‫ع‬

Ѹ䗮䗮ֵ

ᬭ㚆᭛စ

ᆊᒁ䆒໛

ए⭫ֱ‫ع‬

Ѹ䗮䗮ֵ

ᬭ㚆᭛စ
亳ક

㸷ⴔ

ሙԣ

亳ક

㸷ⴔ

ሙԣ
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 81˖᳾ᴹ 5 ᑈ៥೑ 20-30 ቕҎষ੠ 65 ቕҹϞⱘ㗕啘Ҏষ↨䞡ᇚ䕗ᖿᦤ催 ˄%˅

20㟇29ቕҎষऴ↨ 65ቕҹϞ
23
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
7
5
D1990 D1995 D2000 D2005 D2010 D2015 D2020

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖㘨ড়೑Ҏষ᭄᥂ᑧˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

4.3 ᡩ䌘䕀ܹ‫ݙ‬䳔ᇐ৥

Ⳍ↨ĀकϔѨāᳳ䯈ᡩ䌘ⱘĀ໻㣗ೈǃ໻㾘῵āˈ
ĀकѠѨā㾘ߦᦤߎĀֱᣕᡩ䌘ড়⧚๲䭓ˈӬ࣪ᡩ䌘㒧
ᵘˈᦤ催ᡩ䌘䋼䞣੠ᬜⲞāⱘᘏԧᣛᇐॳ߭ˈ䖭乘⼎ⴔ᳾ᴹѨᑈԢ
Ԣᬜ⥛ǃԢ⽣߽ⱘᡩ䌘῵ᓣᇚ㹿ᨦᓗˈᡩ৥
ᇚ᳝᠔䕀বDŽ

4.3.1 Ā催䪕ā乚䎥෎ᓎᡩ䌘
2008 ᑈПৢˈԈ䱣೑ᆊಯϛғᡩ䌘䅵ߦⱘᅲᮑˈ෎⸔䆒ᮑᡩ䌘ᯢᰒࡴᖿˈ2009 ᑈ෎⸔䆒ᮑᡩ䌘๲䗳䖙
䗳⬅ 20%ᦤ催ࠄ 45%ᎺেDŽ೑ᆊ෎⸔䆒ᮑᓎ䆒Ꮖ㒣䖒ࠄϔᅮ㾘῵ˈ៾㟇 2009 ᑈˈܼ೑݀䏃䗮䔺ᘏ䞠⿟᭄᥹
䖥 400 ϛ݀䞠ˈ䪕䏃㒓䏃 8.6 ϛ݀䞠ˈ᥂Ϫ⬠ࠡϸԡDŽԚ㒧ᵘϞⳟˈ催䗳݀䏃䪕䏃ⱘऴ↨䖬䕗Ԣˈ2009 ᑈ催
䗳݀䏃䗮䔺䞠⿟ 6.5 ϛ݀䞠ˈ催䗳䪕䏃 7000 ݀䞠ˈऴ↨ߚ߿ҙЎ 1.6%੠ 8.1%DŽҢĀकѠѨā㾘ߦЁᦤߎⱘ
Ā֓᥋ǃᅝܼǃ催ᬜāⱘ䘧䏃䖤䕧ԧ㋏㽕∖ⳟˈ催䗳݀䏃Ϣ催䗳䪕䏃ⱘᡩ䌘๲䭓᳔‫࡯┰݋‬DŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 31
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 82˖෎ᓎᡩ䌘䖯ܹᑇ〇ᖿ䗳থሩᳳ ˄%˅ ೒ 83˖䪕䏃ᡩ䌘Ꮖ䖒ࠄϔᅮ㾘῵ ˄ғ‫˅ܗ‬

෎⸔䆒ᮑᡩ䌘ৠ↨๲䗳 ܼ೑䪕䏃ᓎ䆒ᡩ䌘ᘏ乱 ܼ೑䪕䏃෎ᴀᓎ䆒ᡩ䌘
෎⸔䆒ᮑᡩ䌘໡ড়๲䗳 9000
60
8000
50 7000
40 6000
5000
30 4000
20 3000
2000
10
1000
0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈ˈ乘䅵෎ᓎᡩ䌘ᑈഛ๲䭓 15%ᎺেDŽϢĀकϔѨā㾘ߦϡৠⱘᰃˈ ĀकѠѨā㾘ߦᯢ⹂

ᦤߎ㽕ᣝ✻Ā䗖ᑺ䍙ࠡāⱘॳ߭ࡴᖿѸ䖤෎⸔䆒ᮑᓎ䆒DŽҹ催䗳݀䏃Ў՟ˈĀकϔѨāᳳ䯈ˈܼ೑㌃䅵೼ᓎ
催䗳݀䏃 8.6 ϛ݀䞠ˈ݊Ёᓎ៤ 6.5 ϛ݀䞠ˈࠄ 2020 ᑈ䅵ߦᅠ៤催䗳݀䏃ᓎ䆒 15.4 ϛ݀䞠ˈᰃⳂࠡⱘ 2.37
‫ˈס‬ᣝ↣݀䞠 6000-8000 ϛⱘᡩ䌘ᴹ䅵ㅫˈ㗗㰥䅵ߦⱘ䗖ᑺ䍙ࠡ˄ᦤࠡ 2 ᑈᅠ៤䅵ߦ˅ˈ↣ᑈ催䗳݀䏃ᡩ䌘
㑺 6700-8800 ғ‫ˈܗ‬ᑈഛ๲䭓 18%ᎺেDŽḍ᥂lj䪕䏃Ё䭓ᳳ㾘ߦNJ ˈ᳾ᴹЁ೑ᇚᓎゟĀಯ῾ಯ㒉āⱘ催䗳䪕
䏃㔥ˈ೼⦄᳝ 7000 ݀䞠催䗳䪕䏃ⱘ෎⸔Ϟˈࠄ 2020 ᑈ㒻㓁ᮄᓎ 4.1 ϛ݀䞠ˈ݊Ё䍙䖛 60%ⱘ乍Ⳃ㽕೼Āक
ѠѨāᳳ䯈ᅠᎹˈ಴ℸ乘䅵催䪕ᡩ䌘ᇚ㒻㓁㓈ᣕ催๲䭓DŽ㗗㰥ࠄ᱂䗮䪕䏃੠䏃ḹᓎ䆒ⱘᬒ㓧ˈ乘䅵ĀकѠѨā
ᳳ䯈෎ᓎᡩ䌘ᑈഛ๲䭓 15%ᎺেDŽ

㸼 8˖Ā䗖ᑺ䍙ࠡāᰃĀकѠѨāѸ䖤ᓎ䆒݇䬂䆡
㸠Ϯ ĀकϔѨā㾘ߦ ĀकѠѨā㾘ߦ
ᣝ✻䗖
䗖ᑺ䍙ࠡॳ߭ˈᵘᓎ֓᥋ǃᅝܼǃ催ᬜⱘ㓐ড়䖤䕧ԧ㋏DŽ෎ᴀ
㒳ㅍ㾘ߦǃড়⧚ᏗሔѸ䗮෎⸔䆒ᮑˈ‫خ‬ད৘⾡䖤䕧ᮍ
ᓎ៤೑ᆊᖿ䗳䪕䏃㔥੠催䗳݀䏃㔥ˈথሩ催䗳䪕䏃ǃࡴᔎⳕ䰙䗮䘧
Ѹ䗮䖤䕧Ϯ ᓣⳌѦ㸨᥹ˈথ᣹㒘ড়ᬜ⥛੠ᭈԧӬ࢓ˈᓎ䆒֓᥋ǃ
੠೑ⳕᑆ㒓݀䏃ᓎ䆒ǃ⿃ᵕথሩ∈䖤ǃᅠ୘␃ষ੠ᴎഎᏗሔˈᬍ䴽
䗮⬙ǃ催ᬜǃᅝܼⱘ㓐ড়䖤䕧ԧ㋏DŽ
ぎඳㅵ⧚ԧࠊDŽ
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖āकѠѨā㾘ߦˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㸼 9˖ߚऎඳ催䗳݀䏃㾘ߦ ˄݀䞠˅
ഄऎ 2010ᑈ˄ĀकϔѨā೼ᓎ˅ 2020ᑈ䅵ߦᓎ៤ ഄऎ 2010ᑈ˄ĀकϔѨā೼ᓎ˅ 2020ᑈ䅵ߦᓎ៤
࣫ҀᏖ 1050 1100 ␪࣫ⳕ 4500 6000
໽⋹Ꮦ 1200 1260 ␪फⳕ 3587 4989
⊇࣫ⳕ 4000 6000 ᑓϰⳕ 5500 7300
ቅ㽓ⳕ 3000 6160 ᑓ㽓ໂᮣ㞾⊏ऎ 3000 5590
‫ݙ‬㩭স㞾⊏ऎ 2600 9200 ⍋फⳕ 810 1080
䖑ᅕⳕ 3709 5000 䞡ᑚᏖ 1900 3888
ঢ়ᵫⳕ 2000 5000 ಯᎱⳕ 3160 8600
咥啭∳ⳕ 4000 4000 䌉Ꮂⳕ 1278 6851
Ϟ⍋Ꮦ 800 1000 ѥफⳕ 3200 6000
∳㢣ⳕ 4000 5700 㽓㮣㞾⊏ऎ 0 3300
⌭∳ⳕ 4000 5000 䰩㽓ⳕ 3000 5000
ᅝᖑⳕ 3500 5500 ⫬㙗ⳕ 200 4000
⽣ᓎⳕ 3000 6100 䴦⍋ⳕ 750 5650
∳㽓ⳕ 3000 4800 ᅕ໣ಲᮣ㞾⊏ऎ 3500 1600
ቅϰⳕ 5000 6200 ᮄ⭚㓈਒ᇨ㞾⊏ऎ 2240 5453
⊇फⳕ 5000 6840 ড়䅵 86,484 154,161
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

32 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 84˖催䪕ᡩ䌘໻༈೼ĀकѠѨā ೒ 85˖䪕䏃ᡩ䌘๲䗳〇Ё᳝छ

䪕䏃ᡩ䌘๲䗳
7.2% 250

21.7% 2010ᑈ
200
32.5%
2011ᑈ
150
2012ᑈ
100
2013ᑈ

2014ৢ 50

16.9% 21.7% 0
200610 200710 200810 200910 201010

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖䪕䘧䚼ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 86˖Ё䭓ᳳ催䪕㾘ߦ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖䪕䘧䚼ǃ㔥ᯧǃЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

4.3.2 ֱ䱰᠓ᓎ䆒ᓔਃ⽣߽᠓ᮄᯊҷ
1998 ᑈҹࠡˈЁ೑᠓ഄѻᏖഎҹ⽣߽ᗻߚ᠓ЎЏˈПৢⱘ᠓ᬍ䞛⫼Ꮦഎ࣪ⱘկ䳔ᴎࠊᇚ᠓ഄѻ᥼৥Ꮦ
എˈᅶ㾖Ϟ▔ࢅњ㸠Ϯⱘ䖙䗳থሩDŽԚ⦄Ҟ᠓ӋϢᬊܹⱘ๲䭓ᯢᰒϡऍ䜡ˈЁԢᬊܹҎ㕸䴶ЈϹዏⱘԣ᠓䲒
䯂乬DŽᔧࠡ໻㾘῵ⱘֱ䱰ᗻԣ᠓䅵ߦᅲ䰙ϞህᰃЎњ㾷‫އ‬ЁԢᬊܹҎ㕸ⱘ෎ᴀԣ᠓䳔∖ˈᅲ⦄᳝⽣߽ⱘ๲䭓DŽ
៥Ӏ乘䅵ˈ ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈ˈֱ䱰ᗻԣ᠓ᡩ䌘ᇚ⬅䞣বࠄ䋼বˈᡩ䌘ऴ↨ᇚᦤ催㟇 20%DŽᔧࠡˈ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘
Ꮖ㒣᳓ҷ෎⸔䆒ᮑᡩ䌘៤Ўᢝࡼ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘๲䭓᳔໮ⱘ㸠Ϯˈ1-10 ᳜᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘๲䗳䖒ࠄ 34.6%ˈᇍ೎ᅮ
䌘ѻᡩ䌘ⱘ䋵⤂⥛䖒ࠄ 34.5%ˈ݊ব࣪ᇍᭈԧᡩ䌘ⱘᕅડВ䎇䕏䞡DŽ⬅Ѣ䇗᥻ᬓㄪⱘᓊ㓁ˈⷁᳳ‫ݙ‬ଚક᠓ᡩ
䌘ᇚফࠄय़ࠊˈԚֱ䱰᠓ᬃᣕᬓㄪᇚ᥼䖯䖭䚼ߚᡩ䌘ᣕ㓁催๲䭓ˈ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘ᭈԧᇚֱᣕᑇ〇DŽ䳔㽕⊼ᛣⱘ
ᰃˈĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈ˈֱ䱰᠓ᡩ䌘ᇍᭈԧ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘ⱘ԰⫼ᇚথ⫳Ң䞣বࠄ䋼বⱘ䕀বDŽ2009 ᑈҹֱࠡ䱰᠓
෎ᴀҹ㒣⌢䗖⫼᠓ЎЏˈ݊ᡩ䌘ऴᭈԧᡩ䌘ⱘ↨䞡ϡ䎇 4%ˈᇍᭈԧᡩ䌘ⱘ䋵⤂г䕗ᇣDŽ2010 ᑈ䱣ⴔֱ䱰᠓
ᬓㄪⱘ໻࡯᥼䖯ˈ݊ᡩ䌘ऴ↨ᇚ䖒ࠄ 10%DŽ乘䅵᳾ᴹ 3 ᑈˈֱ䱰᠓ⱘᓎ䆒㾘῵䖬ᇚ㓈ᣕˈ㢹ҹ↣ᑈᓎ䆒 500
ϛ༫ˈ↣༫ԣ᠓ 60 ᑇ㉇䅵ㅫˈ↣ᑈֱ䱰᠓կᑨᇚ䖒ࠄ 3 ғᑇ㉇ˈऴᭈԧ᠓ഄѻᏖഎկᑨ䞣ⱘ 25%ˈ㗗㰥ࠄ
ֱ䱰᠓ᓎㄥᡩ䌘ৃ㛑ԢѢଚક᠓ˈ݊ᡩ䌘ऴ↨᳝ᳯ䖒ࠄ 20%ˈᇍ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘ⱘ䋵⤂⥛ᇚᰒ㨫 㨫ᦤछDŽ乘䅵Āक
ѠѨāᳳ䯈᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘๲䗳ᇚ㓈ᣕ೼ 16%ᎺেDŽ

ֱ䱰᠓ᓎ䆒᠔䳔䌘䞥ৃ䗮䖛᠓ѻ⿢㸹䎇DŽᔧֱࠡ䱰᠓᥼䖯䲒ᑺ䕗໻ⱘ䞡㽕ॳ಴ᰃഄᮍᬓᑰ䋶࡯ϡ䎇DŽ‫؛‬
ᅮĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈↣ᑈᓎ䆒ֱ䱰᠓ 500 ϛ༫ˈҹ↣༫䴶⿃ 60 ᑇ㉇ˈ䗴Ӌ 1800 ‫ܗ‬/ᑇ㉇䅵ㅫˈ↣ᑈ᠔䳔䌘䞥
䖒ࠄ 5400 ғ‫݊ˈܗ‬Ёഄᮍᬓᑰߎ䌘 40%ˈ䖒ࠄ 2160 ғ‫ˈܗ‬ऴഄᮍᬓᑰ䋶ᬓᬊܹⱘ 6.6%ˈഄᮍᬓᑰ᳝ϔᅮ
ⱘय़࡯DŽ㗠᠓ഄѻ⿢ⱘᬍ䴽ৃҹ㾷‫އ‬䖭ϔ䯂乬ˈḍ᥂ĀकѠѨā㾘ߦˈ᠓ഄѻ⿢ᬍ䴽ᇚࡴᖿ᥼䖯ˈ݊ᬍ䴽᳝
ᳯ↣ᑈ๲ࡴഄᮍᬓᑰ䋶ᬓᬊܹ 3000 ғ‫˄ܗ‬䆺㾕ϧ乬᡹ਞljҢ೑䰙㒣偠ⳟЁ೑᠓ѻ⿢ᬍ䴽NJ˅ ˈᅠܼ㸹䎇ֱ䱰
᠓ᓎ䆒᠔䳔䌘䞥ˈৠᯊĀֱ䱰᠓+᠓ѻ⿢āⱘ㒘ড়ൟᬓㄪгᇚ᳈᳝ᬜⱘ֗䖯᠓ഄѻᏖഎⱘ‫ع‬ᒋথሩDŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 33
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 87˖ⷁᳳ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘㓈ᣕ催ԡ ˄%˅ ೒ 88˖᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘ᇍᭈԧᡩ䌘ⱘ䋵⤂⥛䖒ࠄ 34.5%˄%˅

೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘 ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘˄ে䕈˅ ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘䋵⤂⥛

36 40 40
34.5
34 35 35 31.2
32 30 30
30 25 25 20.9 21.3
28 20 20 16.2
26 15 15
24 10 10
22 5 5
20 0 0
200510 200610 200710 200810 200910 201010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 89˖2009 ᑈҹֱࠡ䱰᠓ᡩ䌘ऴ↨䕗ᇣ

ֱ䱰᠓ᡩ䌘ऴ↨
11 10.0
10
9
8
7
6
5
3.6 3.6 3.3 3.2
4 3.1
3
2
1
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

4.3.3 ѻϮ䕀⿏ᔶ៤㽓䚼ᮄ๲䭓ᵕ
㒣⌢๲䭓Џ㽕প‫އ‬Ѣࢇࡼ࡯ǃ䌘ᴀ੠ᡔᴃ䖯ℹDŽ䱣ⴔ㒣⌢থሩࠄϔᅮ∈ᑇˈ䌘ᴀ੠ᡔᴃⱘ⌕ࡼᏆⳌᇍ乎
⬙ˈ೼䖭⾡ᚙ‫މ‬ϟˈ‫݋‬໛ࢇࡼ࡯੠ೳഄ䌘⑤Ӭ࢓ⱘ㽓䚼ഄऎথሩぎ䯈᳈໻DŽ

㽓䚼ⱘ࠽ԭࢇࡼ࡯ⳌᇍЄᆠˈࢇࡼ࡯៤ᴀгⳌᇍ䕗ԢDŽⳂࠡЁ㽓䚼ⳕӑࢇࡼ࡯ⱘ㄀ϔѻϮህϮ↨䞡䖒ࠄ
40%ҹϞˈ݊Ё㽓䚼ഄऎ㄀ϔѻϮህϮ催䖒 50%DŽ䖭ᛣੇⴔ㽓䚼ഄऎ䖬᳝䕗໮ⱘ࠽ԭࢇࡼ࡯ৃҹ䕀⿏DŽ݊⃵ˈ
㽓䚼ⱘᎹ䌘ᯢᰒԢѢϰ䚼ˈᑊϨ䖭ϔᏂ䎱䖬೼ᢝ໻DŽ

㽓䚼ೳഄ䌘⑤Єᆠˈೳഄ៤ᴀⳌᇍ䕗Ԣˈৠᯊ‫݋‬໛‫ܜ‬໽ⱘⷓѻ䌘⑤Ӭ࢓DŽԢᒝⱘ㽕㋴ӋḐՓᕫ㽓䚼ഄऎ
ӕϮ‫݋‬᳝᳈催ⱘ↯߽⥛ˈ2010 ᑈ 5 ᳜ˈϰЁ㽓䚼ഄऎᎹϮӕϮ↯߽⥛ߚ߿Ў 14.9ǃ17.6 ੠ 19.7.ˈ㽓䚼ഄऎ
↯߽⥛催ߎϰ䚼ഄऎ 4.8 Ͼⱒߚ⚍DŽℸ໪ˈҢবࡼ䍟࢓ⳟˈ2009 ᑈ㟇 2010 ᑈˈϰ䚼ഄऎᎹϮӕϮ↯߽⥛㓈
ᣕ〇ᅮˈ㗠Ё㽓䚼ഄऎᎹϮӕϮ↯߽⥛ഛ᳝᠔๲䭓DŽഄऎ䯈ⱘ㸠Ϯ߽⍺⥛ᏂᓖᇚՓᕫⳌ݇ѻϮ䕀⿏䗳ᑺࡴᖿˈ
᥼ࡼ㽓䚼ഄऎ㒣⌢᳈ᖿথሩDŽ

34 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 90˖Ё㽓䚼ࢇࡼ࡯៤ᴀӬ࢓ߌᰒ ˄‫ܗ‬/ᑈ˅ ೒ 91˖ϰ䚼ೳഄӋḐ䖰催ѢЁ㽓䚼 ˄‫ܗ‬/ᑇᮍ㉇˅

ϰ䚼ҎഛᎹ䌘 Ё䚼ҎഛᎹ䌘 㽓䚼ҎഛᎹ䌘 2008 2009

30000 4000
3500
25000
3000
20000 2500
15000 2000
1500
10000
1000
5000 500
0 0
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 ϰफऎ 㽓फऎ ढ࣫ऎ Ёफऎ 㽓࣫ऎ ϰ࣫ऎ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 92˖㽓䚼ഄऎᎹϮ↯߽⥛䕗催 ˄%˅

2009 2010
25
19.2 19.7
20 17.6
16.7
14.9 14.9
15

10

0
ϰ䚼 Ё䚼 㽓䚼

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ढ䗮ҎˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

ℸ໪ˈѻϮ䕀⿏ᔶ៤㽓䚼ऎඳᡩ䌘ᮄ๲䭓ᵕDŽĀकѠѨā㾘ߦᦤߎ㽕Āമᣕऎ߿ᇍᕙǃߚ㉏ᣛᇐǃᓩᇐ
ᡩ䌘᳈໮ᡩ৥Ё㽓䚼ഄऎā DŽ䖭ᅲ䰙Ϟᰃ䗮䖛ᡩ䌘䖒ࠄ䌘⑤೼ऎඳ䯈ഛ㸵ߚ䜡ˈҹ䖒ࠄ݅ৠথሩⱘⳂⱘDŽ䖥
5 ᑈᴹˈ⬅Ѣ೑ᆊᬓㄪⱘᬃᣕˈ㽓䚼ऎඳᡩ䌘Џ㽕䲚Ё೼෎ᓎϢ᠓ഄѻ⇥⫳Ꮉ⿟ㄝᮍ䴶DŽ䱣ⴔ㽓䚼ഄऎ⹀ӊ
ᴵӊⱘϡᮁᅠ୘ˈѻϮ䕀⿏ⱘ਌ᓩ࡯᮹Ⲟ๲ᔎˈѻϮ䕀⿏ᓩথⱘᡩ䌘៤Ў㽓䚼ᡩ䌘ᮄ๲䭓ᵕˈ ĀकѠѨāᳳ
䯈ˈ㽓䚼ࠊ䗴Ϯᡩ䌘᳝ᳯ䖯ϔℹࡴᖿˈ᳝ᳯ᥼ࡼᭈԧࠊ䗴Ϯᡩ䌘ᑈഛ๲䭓 20%ᎺেDŽ

⬅Ѣ FDI ᇍѢᭈԧᡩ䌘ᮍ䴶᳝ϔᅮⱘ‫ܜ‬ᇐᬜᑨˈߚᵤऎඳ䯈ⱘ FDI ᚙ‫މ‬᳝ࡽѢ៥Ӏњ㾷᳾ᴹᡩ䌘ⱘ䍄࢓DŽ

㒧ᵘϞⳟˈࠊ䗴Ϯǃ᠓ഄѻϮ੠᳡ࡵϮ FDI ⱘऴ↨ߚ߿Ў 51%ǃ19%੠ 28%ˈ಴ℸ FDI ⱘЏ㽕ᡩ৥ᰃѻϮᡩ
䌘DŽߚऎඳⳟˈ䖥 䖥 5 ᑈ๲䗳᳔ᖿⱘकϾഄऎЁˈ᳝ 6 Ͼ㽓䚼ⳕӑ˄৿Ⳉ䕪Ꮦ˅ ǃ3 ϾЁ䚼ⳕӑ੠ϔϾϰ䚼Ⳉ䕪
Ꮦˈ݊Ё๲䭓᳔ᖿᰃ䞡ᑚˈ䖥 5 ᑈ FDI ᑈഛ໡ড়๲䗳䖒ࠄ 58.22%ˈ催ߎܼ೑ᑇഛ∈ᑇ䖥 50 Ͼⱒߚ⚍DŽ

೒ 93˖䖥 5 ᑈ๲䗳᳔ᖿⱘकϾ FDI ഄऎ ˄%˅

䞡ᑚᏖ 58.21945354
ᅝᖑⳕ
ѥफⳕ
⊇फⳕ
ಯᎱⳕ
‫ݙ‬㩭স
⫬㙗ⳕ
໽⋹Ꮦ
ᑓ㽓
␪फⳕ
ܼ೑ 8.228075611
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 35
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

㽓䚼ᡓ᥹ϰ䚼ѻϮ䕀⿏ⱘ䍟࢓䖬ৃҹҢህϮᮍ䴶㾖⌟DŽ៥Ӏ㒳䅵њ䖥ϸᑈϰЁ㽓䚼䞛ᥬϢࠊ䗴ϮⱘህϮ
বࡼᚙ‫މ‬DŽᭈԧϞⳟˈϰЁ㽓䚼ህϮߚ߿๲䭓њ 6.7%ǃ9.9%ǃ7.8%ˈ㽓䚼ഄऎ催ߎϰ䚼ഄऎ 1.1 Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈ
݊Ёࢇࡼᆚ䲚ൟⱘ㸠Ϯབ㒎㒛᳡㺙ǃᆊ‫ࠊ݋‬䗴Ϯǃ⷇⊍ࡴᎹ੠࣪ᄺ㑸㓈㸠Ϯ䕀⿏ⱘ⡍ᕕ᳔Ўᯢᰒˈ㽓䚼ህϮ
䕗ϰ䚼ߚ߿๲ࡴ 17ǃ50ǃ6.6 ੠ 16 Ͼⱒߚ⚍DŽ≑䔺ǃ⬉⇨䆒໛ǃ䗮⫼䆒໛ࠊ䗴Ϯгᄬ೼ϔᅮⱘህϮ䕀⿏ᬜ
ᵰDŽᇍѢ䰘ࡴؐ䕗催ǃ᳝ϔᅮߎষձᄬᑺⱘҾ఼Ҿ㸼੠䗮ֵ䆒໛ࠊ䗴ϮˈѻϮ䕀⿏Ⳍᇍ㓧᜶˗ℸ໪䩶䪕ǃ᳝
㡆ㄝ㸠Ϯ⬅Ѣ䌘ѻⱘ೎ᅮᡩܹ↨䕗໻ˈ಴ℸ䕀⿏ᬜᑨᑊϡᯢᰒDŽ

㸼 10˖䖥ϸᑈ৘㸠ϮህϮবࡼᚙ‫މ‬ ˄%˅
 ϰ䚼 Ё䚼 㽓䚼
ܼ䚼 6.68 9.89 7.81
06-✸⚁ᓔ䞛੠⋫䗝Ϯ 0.66 -0.62 8.28
07-⷇⊍੠໽✊⇨ᓔ䞛Ϯ -5.12 0.14 -2.88
08-咥㡆䞥ሲⷓ䞛䗝Ϯ 6.83 10.89 8.09
09-᳝㡆䞥ሲⷓ䞛䗝Ϯ -0.06 8.34 7.91
10-䴲䞥ሲⷓ䞛䗝Ϯ 6.33 9.92 8.36
11-݊Ҫ䞛ⷓϮ -37.22 68.63 25.27
13-‫ࡃݰ‬亳કࡴᎹϮ 6.95 13.92 12.16
14-亳કࠊ䗴Ϯ 8.55 10.31 16.40
15-佂᭭ࠊ䗴Ϯ 4.75 9.16 13.95
16-⚳㤝ࠊકϮ 1.01 2.15 -18.06
17-㒎㒛Ϯ -0.21 3.39 -4.11
18-㒎㒛᳡㺙ǃ䵟ǃᐑࠊ䗴Ϯ 0.45 19.62 17.68
19-Ⲃ䴽ǃ↯Ⲃǃ㖑↯(㒦)ঞ݊ࠊકϮ 0.14 14.49 0.34
20-᳼ᴤࡴᎹঞ᳼ǃネǃ㮸ǃẩǃ㤝ࠊકϮ 8.13 13.45 12.89
21-ᆊ‫ࠊ݋‬䗴Ϯ 7.26 19.30 57.78
22-䗴㒌ঞ㒌ࠊકϮ 2.53 6.80 6.49
23-ॄࠋϮ੠䆄ᔩၦҟⱘ໡ࠊ 5.54 10.46 3.05
24-᭛ᬭԧ㚆⫼કࠊ䗴Ϯ 3.49 14.37 9.96
25-⷇⊍ࡴᎹǃ⚐⛺ঞḌ➗᭭ࡴᎹϮ 8.06 3.30 14.68
26-࣪ᄺॳ᭭ঞ࣪ᄺࠊકࠊ䗴Ϯ 6.26 8.60 3.82
27-ए㥃ࠊ䗴Ϯ 6.82 8.30 6.97
28-࣪ᄺ㑸㓈ࠊ䗴Ϯ 3.79 -28.42 18.55
29-‵㛊ࠊકϮ 5.87 8.71 7.12
30-ล᭭ࠊકϮ 9.06 16.11 11.21
31-䴲䞥ሲⷓ⠽ࠊકϮ 6.17 12.32 10.53
32-咥㡆䞥ሲ‫⚐ފ‬ঞय़ᓊࡴᎹϮ 4.30 2.56 7.64
33-᳝㡆䞥ሲ‫⚐ފ‬ঞय़ᓊࡴᎹϮ 3.28 6.22 7.96
34-䞥ሲࠊકϮ 8.07 16.41 12.52
35-䗮⫼䆒໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ 8.41 13.04 6.72
36-ϧ⫼䆒໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ 9.04 9.18 5.14
37-Ѹ䗮䖤䕧䆒໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ 11.86 8.66 15.14
39-⬉⇨ᴎẄঞ఼ᴤࠊ䗴Ϯ 13.65 20.66 14.71
40-䗮ֵ䆒໛ǃ䅵ㅫᴎঞ݊Ҫ⬉ᄤ䆒໛ࠊ䗴 18.46 23.97 9.12
41-Ҿ఼Ҿ㸼ঞ᭛࣪ǃࡲ݀⫼ᴎẄࠊ䗴Ϯ 10.45 19.28 4.99
42-Ꮉ㡎કঞ݊Ҫࠊ䗴Ϯ 0.77 5.01 -2.02
43-ᑳᓗ䌘⑤੠ᑳᮻᴤ᭭ಲᬊࡴᎹϮ 16.97 46.42 -32.42
44-⬉࡯ǃ⛁࡯ⱘ⫳ѻ੠կᑨϮ -14.51 38.11 3.59
45-➗⇨⫳ѻ੠կᑨϮ 2.60 0.60 12.13
46-∈ⱘ⫳ѻ੠կᑨϮ 3.88 3.00 4.90
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ढ䗮ҎˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

乘䅵ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈˄2011-2015˅ᡩ䌘๲䗳ᇚಲ㨑㟇 20%ᎺেDŽ
ĀбѨāᳳ䯈ˈᡩ䌘๲䭓Ⳍᇍ㓧᜶ˈᑈ
ഛᡩ䌘๲䗳ҙ 10.9%DŽ2000 ᑈৢˈ෎⸔䆒ᮑᓎ䆒໻㾘῵ሩᓔˈৠᯊ㡃དⱘ㒣⌢⦃๗᥼ࡼࠊ䗴Ϯᡩ䌘䎳䖯ˈᭈ
ԧᡩ䌘๲䗳䖙䗳ᦤ催ˈ ĀकϔѨāᳳ䯈ᑈഛᡩ䌘๲䗳䖒ࠄ 26%ⱘ催ԡDŽ2010 ᑈජ䬛೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘᳝ᳯさ⸈ 23

36 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

ϛғˈ㢹ㅔऩϢ GDP Ⳍ↨䕗ˈᡩ䌘Ꮖ㒣䖒ࠄ GDP 㾘῵ⱘ 61%DŽ಴ℸˈሑㅵ᳾ᴹѨᑈᡩ䌘ᭈԧ㾘῵ᑊϡӮ໻

ᐙᑺϟ䰡ˈԚ݊ҹᕔ 2.5 ‫ס‬Ѣ GDP ๲䭓ⱘ䗳ᑺᇚ᳝᠔ᬒ㓧ˈᡩ䌘ᇍ㒣⌢๲䭓ⱘ䋵⤂гӮ᳝᠔䰡Ԣˈ乘䅵Āक
ѠѨāᳳ䯈ᡩ䌘ᑈഛ๲䗳ᇚಲ㨑㟇 20%ᎺেDŽ

೒ 94˖ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈ᡩ䌘๲䗳ᇚ᳝᠔ಲ㨑 ˄%˅

Ѩᑈ䅵ߦᳳ䯈ᑈഛᡩ䌘๲䭓 GDPᑇഛ๲䗳˄ে䕈˅
30 12
26
25 23.4 11
20
20 10

15 10.9 9

10 8

5 7

0 6
1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015E

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

4.4 ߎষҢ乎Ꮒ㄀ϔࠄ⽣߽Ӭ‫ܜ‬

៥೑ҹߎষ֗䖯㒣⌢๲䭓ⱘḐሔᔶ៤Ѣ 1990 ᑈҷDŽԢᒝⱘࢇࡼ࡯Ꮉ䌘೼⊓⍋ഄऎ֗䖯њߎষ⡍߿ᰃࡴ

Ꮉ䌌ᯧߎষⱘ催䗳থሩDŽ៥೑䖯ষ䋻⠽ⱘᕜ໻䚼ߚгᰃҹߎষЎ᳔㒜ⳂⱘⱘDŽ೼៥೑ࡴܹ WTO ৢˈϔѯഄ
ऎ催ᑺձ䌪ߎষᴹᢝࡼ GDPˈᇍ䌌ᯧ乎Ꮒⱘ䗑∖޴Т㹿ᬒ೼䌌ᯧᬓㄪⱘ佪㽕ԡ㕂DŽ៥೑䖛໻ⱘ乎Ꮒᏺᴹњ
ᕜ໮䋳䴶԰⫼DŽ㄀ϔˈ៥೑य़ԢӋḐҹ֗䖯ߎষˈᅲ䰙Ϟᙊ࣪њ៥೑ⱘ䌌ᯧᴵӊDŽ㄀Ѡˈ៥೑⿃㌃ⱘ໻䞣䌌
ᯧ乎ᏂҹᕜԢⱘಲ᡹‫׳‬㒭㽓ᮍ೑ᆊˈ䖭г䰡Ԣњ៥೑ⱘ⽣߽∈ᑇDŽ ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈ˈ៥೑ⱘ䌌ᯧᬓㄪᇚ᳝ᕜ
໻ⱘ䕀বˈेҢॳᴹⱘҹ䗑∖ߎষ㾘῵੠䌌ᯧ乎ᏂЎ㄀ϔⳂᷛⱘ䌌ᯧᬓㄪ䕀বЎҹᦤ催ሙ⇥⽣߽ЎḌᖗⱘ䌌
ᯧᬓㄪDŽᮄ䌌ᯧᬓㄪⱘḌᖗᰃᬍ୘䌌ᯧᬊᬃǃӬ࣪䌌ᯧ㒧ᵘDŽ

4.4.1 䌌ᯧᬊᬃ䗤⏤ᑇ㸵
Ё䭓ᳳ៥೑ߎষ๲䗳ᇚᬒ㓧ˈ䌌ᯧ㒧ᵘᇚᬍ୘DŽ᳾ᴹЁ೑ߎষ๲䗳ᇚӮࠄ 15%Ꮊেⱘ䍟࢓∈ᑇDŽ䖭Џ㽕
᳝བϟ޴Ͼॳ಴DŽ

㄀ϔˈᬓㄪϡ‫ݡ‬䗑∖䖛ᖿⱘߎষ๲䭓DŽḍ᥂ଚࡵ䚼ⱘⳌ݇㾘ߦˈ៥೑᳾ᴹ䞡⚍㽕ࡴᔎ䌌ᯧ㒧ᵘⱘᬍ୘ˈ
㗠ϡ‫ݡ‬ᡞߎষ䗳ᑺⳟ԰᳔䞡㽕ⱘᣛᷛDŽ

㄀Ѡˈ៥೑ߎষⱘЏ㽕ѻકᰃᎹϮࠊ៤ક↨䞡೼ 2006 ᑈৢ෎ᴀ〇ᅮ೼ 95%ⱘ∈ᑇˈऴ᥂៥೑ߎষӑ乱

᥹䖥ϔञⱘᴎẄঞ䖤䕧䆒໛↨䞡гਜ⦄ߎᑇ〇ⱘ࢓༈DŽ៥೑ᎹϮⱘ催䗳๲䭓੠ࢇࡼ⫳ѻ⥛ⱘϡᮁᦤ催ᰃ៥೑
ࠊ䗴કߎষӑ乱ϡᮁϞछⱘ䞡㽕ॳ಴DŽ೼៥೑ᎹϮѻߎऴ GDP ↨䞡䖒ࠄ 40%ҹϞⱘ催∈ᑇৢˈᎹϮѻߎⱘ
๲䭓ᇚ䍟ৠѢ GDP ⱘ๲䗳DŽⳌᑨⱘˈᎹϮࠊ៤કⱘߎষऴ៥೑ᘏߎষⱘӑ乱гᇚ䍟Ѣᑇ〇DŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 37
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 95˖៥೑ᎹϮࠊ៤કऴߎষ↨䞡 ˄%˅
ᎹϮࠊક↨䞡 ᴎẄঞ䖤䕧䆒໛↨䞡
100

80

60

40

20

0
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 96˖2009 ᑈ৘೑ᎹϮࠊ៤કऴߎষ乱↨䞡 ˄%˅

100

80

60

40

20

0
Ё೑ 㕢೑ ϰⲳ फ㕢ಯ೑ Ёफ㕢ಯ೑

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WTOˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖फ㕢ಯ೑ࣙᣀ˖Ꮘ㽓ˈ䰓ḍᓋˈРᢝഁˈᏈᢝഁ˗Ёफ㕢ಯ೑
ࣙᣀ⦏߽㓈Ѯˈ⾬剕ˈक़⪰໮ᇨˈહӺ↨Ѯ

㄀ϝˈ೼ϔѯӴ㒳ⱘߎষ乚ඳˈ៥೑೼Ϫ⬠Ꮦഎ᠔ऴⱘӑ乱Ꮖ㒣䴲ᐌ催DŽ↨བˈ೼᳡㺙ᏖഎϞˈЁ೑ӑ乱
Ң 2005 ᑈⱘ 27%ᦤ催ࠄњ 2009 ᑈⱘ 34%DŽҢӕϮ⫳ѻⱘ㾦ᑺ䆆ˈ೼ϔᅮ䰊↉ˈѻߎᠽᓴⱘॖଚ䖍䰙៤ᴀӮ
Ϟछˈ㗠ѻߎ‫ޣ‬ᇥⱘॖଚ䖍䰙៤ᴀӮϟ䰡DŽ䖭ϔ๲ϔ‫ޣ‬ᇚࠞᔅ乚‫ܜ‬ॖଚⱘ៤ᴀӬ࢓ˈ䖯㗠ᦤ催ᠽ໻Ꮦഎӑ乱ⱘ
䲒ᑺDŽ೼Ϫ⬠ᏖഎϞˈབᵰ໻ὖഄᡞ೑ᆊⳟ៤ᰃॖଚˈϞ䗄ॳ⧚ᇚՓ㒻㓁ᦤ催Ё೑Ꮦഎӑ乱ⱘ䲒ᑺ䍞ᴹ䍞໻DŽ

೒ 97˖៥೑᳡㺙ߎষऴϪ⬠ӑ乱 ˄%˅
2005 2009
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Ё೑ ⃻ⲳ ೳ㘇݊ ॄᑺ ݊ᅗ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WTOˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

38 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

ሑㅵ៥೑ᎹϮࠊ៤કᘏ䞣ߎষ๲䗳ᇚᬒ㓧ˈԚᰃߎষѻક㒧ᵘᇚӮᬍ୘DŽ՟བˈ៥ӀⳟࠄϧϮǃ⾥ᄺঞ
᥻ࠊҾ఼㺙㕂ǃ⬉࡯ᴎẄǃ⡍⾡ᎹϮϧ⫼ᴎẄㄝ催䰘ࡴؐѻકⱘߎষऴ៥೑ᎹϮࠊ៤કⱘߎষӑ乱೼ϡᮁᦤ
催DŽ催䰘ࡴؐѻકߎষ↨䞡Ϟछᇚᬍ୘៥೑ⱘ䌌ᯧᴵӊˈᦤछ䌌ᯧᏺᴹⱘ㒣⌢⽣߽DŽ

೒ 98˖催䰘ࡴؐᎹϮࠊ៤કऴߎষӑ乱ϡᮁϞछ ˄%˅
ϧϮǃ⾥ᄺঞ᥻ࠊ⫼Ҿ఼੠㺙㕂 ⡍⾡ᎹϮϧ⫼ᴎẄ
⬉࡯ᴎẄǃ఼‫݋‬ঞ݊⬉⇨䳊ӊ(ে䕈˅
4 14
3.5 12
3 10
2.5
8
2
6
1.5
1 4
0.5 2
0 0
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WTOˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㄀ಯˈ䱣ⴔҎ⇥Ꮥⱘ䗤⏤छؐˈ៥೑ߎষ೼೑䰙ᏖഎϞⱘゲѝ࡯ᇚফࠄϔᅮⱘᕅડDŽ⬅Ѣ៥೑ⱘ䌌ᯧ乎
Ꮒ䕗໻ˈҎ⇥Ꮥᄬ೼ϔᅮⱘछؐय़࡯DŽ೼䞥㵡ॅᴎৢˈ⬅Ѣ⃻㕢㒣⌢໡㢣㓧᜶ˈҎ⇥Ꮥ∛⥛䯂乬៤Ў೑䰙㒣
⌢ⱘϔϾЏ㽕⛺⚍DŽ៥೑䴶Јⱘछؐय़࡯г䍞ᴹ䍞໻DŽ2005 ᑈ 1 ᳜ࠄ 2010 ᑈ 10 ᳜ˈҎ⇥Ꮥⳳᅲ᳝ᬜ∛⥛
໻㑺छؐњ 23%DŽ䰸њ೼ 2008 ᑈ᳝䕗ᖿछؐ໪ˈ2005 ᑈ㟇Ҟ໻䚼ߚⱘᯊ䯈䞠Ҏ⇥Ꮥᅲ䰙᳝ᬜ∛⥛ⱘछؐ䖛
⿟↨䕗ᑇ〇DŽϔѯᄺᴃ⬠ⱘⷨお㸼ᯢˈҎ⇥Ꮥ㓧᜶छؐ೼ⷁᳳ‫ݙ‬ᇍ䖯ߎষⱘᕅડᐙᑺᑊϡ໻DŽԚᰃ䭓ᳳᴹⳟˈ
䱣ⴔҎ⇥Ꮥ㌃䅵छؐᐙᑺⱘᦤ催ˈ៥೑ѻક೼೑䰙ᏖഎϞⱘӋḐゲѝ࡯ᇚ᳝᠔ϟ䰡ˈҢ㗠ᇍߎষѻ⫳ϔᅮ䋳
䴶ᬜᵰ

೒ 99˖Ҏ⇥Ꮥⳳᅲ᳝ᬜ∛⥛ ˄2005=100˅

130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑䰙⏙ㅫ䫊㸠

㄀Ѩˈࢇࡼ࡯ӋḐᇚϞछˈᬊܹߚ䜡ᇚᬍ୘DŽ䖭ৃҹ֗䖯⍜䌍‫ݙ‬䳔ˈ᳝߽Ѣ೑‫ݙ‬㒣⌢㒧ᵘ䇗ᭈ੠໪䚼㒣
⌢ᑇ㸵DŽ೼ 2006 ᑈˈ៥೑ⱘࠊ䗴Ϯࢇࡼ࡯↣ᇣᯊᎹ䌘៤ᴀЎ 0.81 㕢‫ˈܗ‬ԢѢॄᑺⱘ 0.91 㕢‫˄ܗ‬㕢೑ࢇᎹ䚼
᭄᥂DŽᎹ䌘㹿ᅮНЎӕϮЎ䲛Էࢇࡼ᠔ᬃҬⱘ᠔᳝៤ᴀDŽ˅DŽϢℸⳌᇍ✻ˈ2006 ᑈ៥೑ҎഛৡН GDP ᥹䖥ॄ
ᑺⱘ 2.6 ‫ס‬DŽ៥೑ࢇࡼ࡯᡹䝀ऴ↨೑⇥ѻߎⱘ↨䞡ᰃ䖛ԢⱘDŽ2008 ᑈˈ៥೑ࠊ䗴Ϯࢇࡼ࡯↣ᇣᯊᎹ䌘Ꮖ㒣ᖿ
䗳ϞछЎ 1.36 㕢‫ܗ‬DŽ಴Ў 2009 ᑈ੠ 2010 ᑈࠊ䗴Ϯࢇࡼ࡯៤ᴀⱘϞछᐙᑺϢ 2006-2008 ᑈᳳ䯈ⳌᏂϡ໻ˈ᥂
ℸ䅵ㅫ 2010 ᑈ៥೑ࠊ䗴Ϯⱘᑇഛࢇࡼ࡯៤ᴀৃ㛑Ꮖ㒣᥹䖥 1.6-1.8 㕢‫↣ܗ‬ᇣᯊDŽॄᑺⱘࢇࡼ࡯៤ᴀϞछ䗳ᑺ
ԢѢ៥೑ˈ2010 ᑈԄ䅵೼ 1.1-1.2 㕢‫↣ܗ‬ᇣᯊП䯈DŽ಴ℸˈ៥Ӏ䅸Ўᔧࠡ៥೑ⱘࠊ䗴ϮᎹҎᎹ䌘Ꮖ㒣ᰒ㨫催
ѢॄᑺDŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 39
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 100˖Ё೑ⱘࢇࡼ࡯বᕫ䌉䞡䍋ᴹ

2006 2010
2

1.5

0.5

0
Ё೑ ॄᑺ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖㕢೑ࢇᎹ䚼ˈ2010 ᑈ᭄᥂ЎԄ䅵ؐ

䗮ᐌⱘⳟ⊩ᰃˈ䱣ⴔӕϮⱘࢇࡼ࡯៤ᴀϞछˈ៥೑ѻક೼೑䰙ᏖഎϞⱘӋḐゲѝ࡯ᇚ䗤⏤ϟ䰡ˈҢ㗠ϡ
߽Ѣߎষ੠㒣⌢๲䭓DŽԚ៥Ӏⱘⳟ⊩᳝ᕜ໻ϡৠDŽӕϮᬃҬⱘࢇࡼ៤ᴀᇍᎹҎᴹ䇈ህᰃࢇࡼᬊܹDŽ㒣⌢থሩ
ⱘ᳔㒜Ⳃⱘᰃᅲ⦄ҎⱘӋؐ੠ᇞϹˈ㗠ࢇࡼবᕫ᳈᳝Ӌؐᰃ䖭ϔⳂⱘ䞡㽕ⱘԧ⦄DŽࢇࡼ࡯᡹䝀ⱘϞछᇚᬍ䖯
೑‫ݙ‬ᬊܹߚ䜡ˈ֗䖯‫ݙ‬䳔ˈ֗䖯䌌ᯧᑇ㸵ˈᡞ㒣⌢Ң催乎ᏂԢ⽣߽ⱘ⢊ᗕ䕀৥ᑇ㸵䌌ᯧ催⽣߽ⱘ⢊ᗕDŽ

԰ЎϔϾ䖬≵᳝ᅠ៤ᎹϮ࣪ⱘথሩЁ೑ᆊˈ៥೑ᰃ䌘ᴀⳌᇍंУⱘ೑ᆊDŽԚᰃ៥೑ै೼䖥޴ᑈ៤ЎܼϪ
⬠䌘ᴀ䕧ߎ໻೑DŽ៥೑ߎষଚકӋḐ䕗Ԣˈ≵᳝ᅠܼড᯴೑‫⫳ݙ‬ѻⱘ⼒Ӯ⦃๗៤ᴀDŽ೼䖭⾡ᚙ‫މ‬ϟˈ䖛໻ⱘ
䌌ᯧ乎Ꮒ೼ᶤ⾡⿟ᑺϞᰃᇍϔѯথ䖒೑ᆊⱘ㸹䌈ˈϡ߽Ѣᦤ催Ё೑㒣⌢ⱘ⽣߽∈ᑇDŽ‫ޣ‬ᇥ乎Ꮒ∈ᑇгᰃᦤ催
៥೑㒣⌢๲䭓䋼䞣੠⽣߽∈ᑇⱘ㽕∖DŽ៥೑ⱘĀकѠѨā㾘ߦ㒆㽕ᯢ⹂ᣛߎˈ៥೑㽕䗤⏤‫ࠄخ‬㒣ᐌ乍Ⳃᬊᬃ
ᑇ㸵DŽҢ᭄᥂Ϟⳟˈ䌌ᯧ乎Ꮒϟ䰡ⱘ䖯⿟Ң 2008 ᑈᏆ㒣ᓔྟњDŽ៥೑ⱘ䌌ᯧ乎Ꮒ೼ 2008 ᑈ䖒ࠄњ 2981 ғ
㕢‫ⱘܗ‬ዄؐDŽℸৢˈ೼ 2009 ᑈˈ៥೑ⱘ䌌ᯧ乎Ꮒϟ䰡ࠄњ 1957 ғ㕢‫ܗ‬DŽ2010 ᑈ៥Ӏ乘䅵䌌ᯧ乎ᏂӮ䖯ϔ
ℹ䰡Ԣࠄ 1880 ғ㕢‫ܗ‬ᎺেDŽ೼೑䰙㒣⌢⦃๗෎ᴀ〇ᅮⱘ⦃๗ϟˈЎњ䙓‫ܡ‬៥೑㒣⌢ⱘ໻䍋໻㨑ˈ៥Ӏ乘⌟
䌌ᯧ乎Ꮒᬊじⱘ䖛⿟ᇚᰃ↨䕗ᑇ㓧ⱘDŽ

೒ 101˖Ё೑ⱘ䌌ᯧ乎Ꮒ ˄ғ㕢‫˅ܗ‬

3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

4.4.2 䌌ᯧ㒧ᵘᇚᬍ୘
᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧߎষᇚ៤Ў៥೑໪䌌ⱘᮄ๲䭓⚍DŽ2009 ᑈ៥೑ⱘଚϮ᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧߎষӑ乱ऴϪ⬠ᘏ䞣ⱘ↨䞡Ў
3.8%DŽ䖭Ͼ↨䞡䖰䖰ԢѢ៥೑Ϫ⬠㄀ϔⱘ䋻⠽䌌ᯧӑ乱˄9.6%˅DŽ៥೑ⱘĀकѠѨā㾘ߦ㒆㽕ᦤߎ㽕໻࡯থ
ሩ᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧˈ֗䖯ߎষ᳡ࡵ䕀ൟछ㑻DŽଚࡵ䚼೼䖥ᳳথᏗⱘljৢॅᴎᯊҷЁ೑໪䌌থሩ៬⬹NJⱘ᡹ਞЁˈг
ᔎ䇗ᬓᑰᬓㄪᇚ೼᳾ᴹ໻࡯ᡊᣕ᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧDŽ៥೑ 2009 ᑈⱘ᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧߎষ乱Ў 1290 ғ㕢‫ܗ‬DŽ៥Ӏ䅸Ў៥೑᳡
ࡵ䌌ᯧߎষ乱೼ 2020 ᑈᇚ䖒ࠄ 4500-5000 ғ㕢‫ܗ‬ᎺেˈऴϪ⬠↨՟䍙䖛 7%ˈሙϪ⬠㄀ 2 ԡDŽ᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧⱘߎ
ষᑈഛ๲䗳ᇚ䖒ࠄ 13%ᎺেDŽৠᯊˈ៥೑ⱘ᳡ࡵߎষ㒧ᵘ⬅ࢇࡼᆚ䲚ൟ੠䌘⑤ᗻ᳡ࡵϮ䗤ℹ䕀৥䞥㵡ǃ䅵ㅫ

40 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

ᴎ੠੼䆶ㄝ催䰘ࡴؐ᳡ࡵϮˈ㓽ᇣϢথ䖒೑ᆊⱘᏂ䎱DŽ䖭ᇚᵕ໻ⱘᬍ୘៥೑ⱘ䌌ᯧ㒧ᵘDŽϢℸৠᯊˈ៥Ӏ乘
⌟៥೑ⱘ᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧ䖯ষⱘ㾘῵੠๲䗳гᇚৠߎষ໻㟈ⳌᔧDŽ
೒ 102˖2009 ᑈ৘೑ଚϮ᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧߎষ乱ऴϪ⬠ᘏ䞣ⱘ↨䞡 ˄%˅
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
㽓⧁⠭

ᛣ໻߽

⠅ᇨ݄

ᮄࡴവ

↨߽ᯊ
㕢೑

㣅೑

ᖋ೑

⊩೑

Ё೑

᮹ᴀ

㥋݄

ॄᑺ

佭␃

⨲຿
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WTOˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

៥ӀᇍЁ೑᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧⱘথሩࠡ᱃‫ܙ‬⒵ֵᖗˈ᳔䞡㽕ⱘॳ಴ᰃЁ೑㒣⌢䕀৥᳡ࡵൟ㒣⌢ⱘ໻ᐩℷ೼᜶᜶ᓔ
ਃDŽ䗮䖛䖥कᑈⱘ催ᡩ䌘ˈ៥೑㒣⌢ⱘ⠽䋼෎⸔Ꮖ㒣Ⳍᔧ䲘८DŽҢᎹϮ࣪೑ᆊⱘথሩग़⿟ᴹⳟˈ೼䞡࣪ᎹϮ
෎ᴀᅠ៤ৢˈҎӀ䳔∖ⱘ䞡ᖗᇚҢ⠽䋼ѻક䕀৥᳡ࡵѻકˈҢ㗠ᇐ㟈᳡ࡵϮऴ㒣⌢↨䞡䗤⏤ϞछDŽ䖭ᰃ㒣⌢
থሩ䏃ᕘⱘᖙ⬅П䏃DŽ঺໪ˈ៥೑ⱘ催ㄝᬭ㚆Ꮖ㒣Ў᳡ࡵϮⱘথሩ෍‫ݏ‬њ‫ܙ‬䎇ⱘ催㋴䋼ࢇࡼ࡯DŽ䱣ⴔ᳡ࡵ䌌
ᯧߎষⱘࡴ䗳๲䭓ˈ催ⶹ䆚∈ᑇҎ㕸ⱘህϮ⢊‫މ‬ᇚᬍ୘DŽ

Ңথሩग़৆ⳟˈ䱣ⴔ៥೑᳡ࡵϮᇍ໪ᓔᬒ⿟ᑺ੠᳡ࡵӕϮ㒣㧹ㅵ⧚∈ᑇⱘᦤ催ˈ᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧ㾘῵੠㒧ᵘᏆ
㒣ᕫࠄњϡᮁᬍ୘DŽ1982-2009 ᑈˈ៥೑᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧߎষᥦৡ⬅Ϫ⬠㄀ 28 ԡϞछ㟇㄀ 5 ԡ˗᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧߎষ㒧ᵘ
Ёˈ䞥㵡ǃֱ䰽ǃ㟾ぎǃ੼䆶ㄝᮄ݈᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧߎষᖿ䗳ϞछDŽ乘䅵᳾ᴹ 5-10 ᑈˈЁ೑᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧ催㑻࣪䍟࢓
Ӯࡴ䗳ˈЏ㽕᳝ϝϾᮍ䴶ॳ಴˖ ˄1˅᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧᖿ䗳থሩ᳝ᳯᕫࠄᬓㄪ᥼ࡼDŽ՟བଚࡵ䚼೼䖥ᳳljৢॅᴎᯊҷ
Ё೑໪䌌থሩ៬⬹NJⷨお᡹ਞЁᯢ⹂ᦤߎ᳾ᴹ᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧ㽕‫خ‬໻‫خ‬ᔎDŽ ˄2˅ҹ᳡ࡵϮЎЏⱘᮄϔ䕂೑䰙ѻϮ䕀
⿏ࡴ䗳ˈϪ⬠৘೑๲ࡴњ催ᡔᴃ৿䞣ǃ催䰘ࡴؐ᳡ࡵϮⱘ೑䰙䕀⿏ˈ䖭ЎЁ೑᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧᦤկњᑓ䯨থሩぎ䯈DŽ
˄3˅䱣ⴔЁ೑᳡ࡵϮ೑䰙ゲѝ࡯ⱘϡᮁᦤछˈЁ೑᳡ࡵϮᇍ໪ᡩ䌘㾘῵ϡᮁᠽ໻DŽ

ҢϪ⬠᳡ࡵϮѻϮ䕀⿏ⱘ㾦ᑺⳟˈ៥೑г໘೼ϔϾ᳝߽ᯊᳳDŽ㞾ϞϪ㑾 90 ᑈҷ㄀Ѩ⃵ᑊ䌁⌾╂ҹᴹˈ
Ϫ⬠ᑊ䌁੠ᡩ䌘ⱘ䞡⚍Ꮖ㒣⬅ࠊ䗴Ϯ䕀ࠄњ᳡ࡵϮᇸ݊ᰃᮄ݈᳡ࡵϮDŽḍ᥂Ϫ⬠䌌ᯧ㒘㒛㒳䅵ˈ᳡ࡵϮ໪ଚ
Ⳉ᥹ᡩ䌘ऴܼ⧗໪ଚⳈ᥹ᡩ䌘ⱘᘏ䞣⬅ 20 Ϫ㑾 70 ᑈҷ߱ 1/4ˈᦤ催ࠄ 2/3˗᳡ࡵϮ䎼๗ᑊ䌁Ḝ՟᭄ऴᑊ䌁Ḝ
՟ᘏ᭄ⱘ↨՟⬅ 1987 ᑈⱘ 38.8%Ϟछ㟇 2006 ᑈ 64%˗೑䰙᳡ࡵϮ䕀⿏⍝ঞ㸠Ϯ䍞ᴹ䍞໮ˈЏ㽕ҹ䕃ӊǃ⬉
䆃ǃ䞥㵡᳡ࡵϮǃㅵ⧚੼䆶ǃ⬉ᄤ㢃⠛䆒䅵ㄝⶹ䆚ᗻ᳡ࡵϮЎЏˈ݊Ёˈ䫊㸠ǃֱ䰽ঞ݊Ҫ䞥㵡᳡ࡵϮǃ⬉
ֵ᳡ࡵǃ݀⫼џϮㄝ᳡ࡵ㸠Ϯⱘ䎼๗ᑊ䌁Ḝ՟ऴ↨䗤ᑈϞछDŽ䖭ѯব࣪Ў៥೑ⱘ᳡ࡵϮछ㑻ˈᢧሩ᳡ࡵ䌌ᯧ
ᠧϟњ㡃དⱘ෎⸔DŽ

催ᡔᴃǃԢ㛑㗫ǃⶹ䆚ᆚ䲚ൟѻકⱘ↨䞡ᇚᦤछDŽ೼䋻⠽ⱘߎষ㒧ᵘᮍ䴶ˈ៥೑ⱘᎹϮࠊ៤કऴ䋻⠽ߎ
ষᘏ䞣ⱘ↨䞡Ꮖ㒣᥹䖥 95%ˈ䖭Ͼ↨䞡㒻㓁ᦤ催ⱘぎ䯈Ꮖ㒣ϡ໻DŽԚᰃˈ೼ᎹϮࠊ៤કЁˈ催ᡔᴃǃԢ㛑㗫ǃ
ⶹ䆚ᆚ䲚ൟѻકⱘ↨䞡ᇚ㒻㓁ᦤछˈ㗠ࢇࡼᆚ䲚ൟǃ催㛑㗫ൟѻકⱘߎষ↨䞡ᇚϟ䰡DŽҢ䖯ষ੠ߎষⱘѻક
㒧ᵘϞⳟˈ៥೑ⱘଚક䌌ᯧ㒧ᵘᬍ୘छ㑻Ꮖ㒣পᕫᰒ㨫䖯ሩDŽ䖭ѯ䖯ሩᦤछњЁ೑㒣⌢ⱘ⽣߽∈ᑇDŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 41
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 103˖߱㑻ѻકǃⷓѻકऴ៥೑䖯ষ乱↨䞡 ˄%˅ ೒ 104˖Ё೑㊂亳䖯ষߎষऴϪ⬠ᘏ䞣ⱘӑ乱 ˄%˅

߱㑻ѻક↨䞡 ⷓѻક↨䞡 䖯ষӑ乱 ߎষӑ乱

35 5
30
4
25
20 3

15 2
10
1
5
0 0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1980 1990 2000 2009

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WTOˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

Ѩǃ᳝⽣߽๲䭓ϟⱘѻϮᮄḐሔ
䱣ⴔЁ೑㒣⌢ࡴ䗳Ϣ೑䰙ⱘ᥹䔼ˈܼ⧗࣪䖯⿟੠໪䚼಴㋴ᇍЁ೑㒣⌢ⱘᕅડ᮹⏤ᰒ⦄DŽ೑䰙ߚᎹഄԡⱘ
ᦤ催ҹঞ೑䰙ゲѝՓᕫЁ೑ᎹϮথሩⱘ‫ݙ‬໪䚼⦃๗থ⫳њϔ㋏߫ᮄⱘব࣪DŽ䞥㵡ॅᴎৢˈܼ⧗㒣⌢๲䗳ᬒ㓧ˈ
䖭ᇍЁ೑ᎹϮ⡍߿ᰃᎹϮߎষ䗴៤Ϲ䞡‫ˈߏކ‬Ԛৠᯊгᢝᓔњܼ⧗㒣⌢๲䭓῵ᓣ੠೑䰙ゲѝḐሔ䇗ᭈⱘᑣ
ᐩDŽᕜ໮থ䖒೑ᆊЎњᨚ㜅ॅᴎˈ⹂ゟ݊೼೑䰙ゲѝḐሔЁⱘ乚‫ܜ‬ഄԡˈ䛑ࠊᅮњᮄⱘѻϮথሩ៬⬹੠ᡊᣕ
ᬓㄪDŽ䗖ᑨ೑‫ݙ‬೑໪থሩ⦃๗ব࣪੠៬⬹থሩⱘ䳔㽕ˈЁ೑ᬓᑰҢ៬⬹催ᑺࠊᅮњথሩ㾘ߦ,ᇚࡴᖿ䕀ব㒣
⌢থሩᮍᓣ԰Ў᳾ᴹ 5-10 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢থሩЏ乬ˈ⏅࣪㽕㋴ᬊܹߚ䜡ԧࠊᬍ䴽ǃᬓᑰㅵ⧚ࠊᑺᬍ䴽ǃ䞥㵡ԧ
ࠊㄝ໮乚ඳ⏅ሖ⃵ᬍ䴽ˈҹ᥼ࡼЁ೑ѻϮ㒧ᵘⱘ䕀ൟDŽ៥Ӏ乘ᳳˈ᳾ᴹѨᑈЁ೑ѻϮ㒧ᵘ䇗ᭈ᳝ᳯপᕫᅲ䋼
ᗻ䕀ব˖

z ᳡ࡵϮ๲ࡴؐऴGDP↨䞡ঞ݊ᇍGDP䋵⤂⥛ߚ߿⬅2009᳿ᳳ43.4%ǃ42.9%ᦤछࠄ2015ᑈⱘ48.4%੠
53%˗

z 2011-2015ᑈ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮऴGDP↨䞡⬅5%ᦤछࠄ8%ˈ2020ᑈᎺেᦤछࠄ㑺15%˗

z 2015ᑈᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ⥛⬅Ⳃࠡ26.5%ᦤछࠄࠄ30%Ꮊে˗

z 2011-2015ᑈऩԡGDP㛑㗫ϟ䰡17.3%ˈ2016-2020ᑈᳳ䯈ᇚϟ䰡16.6%DŽ

೒ 105˖᳾ᴹ 5 ᑈѻϮ䇗ᭈḐሔሩᳯ
೑‫⫳ݙ‬ѻᘏؐᵘ៤ ˄%˅ ऩԡ GDP 㛑㗫Ⳃᷛ˄ৼᷛ‫✸ޚ‬/ϛ‫˅ܗ‬

㄀ϔѻϮ ㄀ѠѻϮ ㄀ϝѻϮ ऩԡGDP㛑㗫:ܼ೑˄ৼᷛ‫✸ޚ‬/ϛ‫˅ܗ‬

100% 1.40
24 22 29 1.30
80% 32 33 39 41 42 46
1.20
60% कϔѨऩԡ GDP㛑㗫䰡Ԣ20%
48 48 1.10
43 41
40% 47 1.00
46 47 48 46 कѠѨ䰡Ԣ17.3%
20% 0.90
28 30 28 27 20 15 12 0.80
0% 10 7
0.70
1978

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

42 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

ᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ⥛⬅ 26.5%ᦤछ㟇 30%Ꮊে ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ๲ࡴؐऴ GDP ↨䞡⬅ 3%ᦤछ㟇 8%

ᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ⥛:ܼ೑ᘏ䅵 ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ๲ࡴؐऴGDP↨䞡ˈ%
31 ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ๲ࡴؐ˄েˈғ‫˅ܗ‬

30 20% 140,000
120,000
29
2011-2015ᑈᎹϮ๲ࡴ 15% 100,000
28 ؐ⥛ᦤ催㑺4Ͼⱒߚ⚍
80,000
27 10%
60,000
26 15%
5% 40,000
25 8% 20,000
3%
24 0% 0
1998 2000 2002 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2010 2015 2020

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

5.1 ѻϮ䕀ൟⱘ⦄ᅲ㚠᱃

㒣ग़ܼ⧗࣪থሩ㒭Ё೑㒣⌢ᏺᴹⱘ咘䞥থሩᯊᳳˈЁ೑㒣⌢䖙䗳๲䭓ᑊ៤ЎϪ⬠ࠊ䗴Ϯ໻೑Пϔˈ೼ࠊ
䗴Ϯ㸠Ϯ 30 ໮Ͼ໻㉏Ёˈ᳝ञ᭄ҹϞ㸠Ϯ⫳ѻ㾘῵ሙϪ⬠㄀ϔDŽԚৠᯊ៥Ӏⳟࠄˈ៥೑ॳ᳝ⱘѻϮ๲䭓Ḑ
ሔᏺᴹњϔ㋏߫㒣⌢੠⼒Ӯ䯂乬ˈ↨བ䌘⑤⍜㗫䖙䗳ᦤछǃ⦃๗ᙊ࣪ǃࢇࡼ࡯ӋḐԢԄǃ䌌ᯧѝッ੠ᨽ᪺๲
໮ㄝㄝˈ䖭ѯᴹ㞾೑‫ݙ‬೑໪᮹Ⲟさߎⱘ⶯ⳒՓᕫॳ᳝๲䭓῵ᓣ䲒ҹЎ㒻DŽ

5.1.1 ѻϮ㒧ᵘᓩথ催㗫㛑ঞ催∵ᶧ⦄䈵
2002 ᑈҹᴹˈ៥೑㒣⌢ᓔྟ䖯ܹњᮄϔ䕂ᖿ䗳๲䭓ᳳˈᎹϮ㒧ᵘߎ⦄ᰒ㨫ⱘ䞡࣪ᎹϮ࣪䍟࢓DŽ⬅Ѣ䞡
࣪ᎹϮ࣪ⱘ᥼䖯ᮍᓣ‫݋‬᳝ᯢᰒⱘ㉫ᬒൟ੠໪ᓊᗻ⡍⚍ˈᇐ㟈䌘⑤ᗻѻકⱘ催⍜㗫੠կ㒭㋻ᓴǃ⦃๗⸈ണϹ䞡
ㄝᮍ䴶ᕅડ㹿䖙䗳ᬒ໻DŽ催㗫㛑੠催∵ᶧⱘ㉫ᬒᓣ㒣⌢๲䭓ᮍᓣϡҙ䰡Ԣњ๲䭓ⱘৃᣕ㓁ᗻˈ㗠ϨϹ䞡䰡Ԣ
ሙ⇥⦃๗⽣߽∈ᑇDŽ㗠䗴៤ᔧࠡ䌘⑤⦃๗⫊乜㑺ᴳ᮹ⲞϹ䞡ⱘḍᴀॳ಴೼ѢѻϮ㒧ᵘˈ㗠ϡᰃᘏ䞣ᖿ䗳๲䭓
䯂乬DŽ᳾ᴹ 5-10 ᑈˈ⬅Ѣᴹ㞾Ё೑ජ䬛࣪᥼䖯Ё෎⸔䆒ᮑᓎ䆒ᡩ䌘ˈᎹϮ࣪छ㑻Ёᡔᴃ㺙໛⫳ѻˈሙ⇥⍜
䌍㒧ᵘछ㑻Ё≑䔺੠ԣ᠓ˈ೑䰙੠೑‫ݙ‬ѻϮ䕀⿏ㄝᮍ䴶ᇍ䞡࣪ᎹϮѻકⱘ䳔∖ҡӮ䕗催ˈᬙ䞡࣪ᎹϮҡ✊ᄬ
೼ᕜ໻থሩぎ䯈DŽ㽕㾷‫އ‬㒣⌢থሩϢ䌘⑤⦃๗㑺ᴳП䯈ⱘ⶯ⳒˈѻϮछ㑻៤Ў៥೑ৃᣕ㓁থሩⱘᖙ✊䗝ᢽDŽ

㸼 11˖៥೑ᎹϮ㛑⑤⍜㗫䞣ԡሙϪ⬠㄀ϔ˄ⱒϛৼ⊍ᔧ䞣˅ ೒ 106˖៥೑∈䌘⑤⫳ѻ⥛ᯢᰒ‫أ‬Ԣ
ᘏ䞣 ᎹϮ Ѹ䗮 ݊Ҫ
㕢೑ 1,572.16 441.72 648.83 481.61
∈⫳ѻ⥛˄GDP/∈ˈ2000㕢‫ܗ‬/ゟᮍ㉇˅
180
Ё೑ 1,201.85 625.89 126.48 449.47 160
֘㔫ᮃ 431.73 175.2 96.97 159.56 140
ॄᑺ 378.49 146.4 39.04 193.04 120
᮹ᴀ 351.79 139.36 91.9 120.53 100
ᖋ೑ 253.57 81.77 63.67 108.13 80
ࡴᣓ໻ 201.51 78.92 56.68 65.91 60
⊩೑ 173.95 46.8 51.23 75.92 40
㣅೑ 158.73 41.52 56.24 60.98 20
䶽೑ 145.08 71.68 32.87 40.54 0
᮹ᴀ

ᖋ೑

▇໻߽Ѯ

Ё೑

ॄᑺ
㣅೑

⊩೑

㕢೑

ࡴᣓ໻

֘㔫ᮃ

㽓⧁⠭ 103.93 37.03 41.17 25.73

▇໻߽Ѯ 77.73 30.25 29.5 17.98
㥋݄ 61.25 23.7 15.68 21.87
⨲‫݌‬ 34.99 14.33 8.77 11.89
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖OECDˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WDIˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 43
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 107˖৘೑ CO2 ᥦᬒ䞣ऴ↨ ˄%˅ 㸼 12˖៥೑ CO2 ᥦᬒᘏ䞣ԡሙϪ⬠㄀Ѡ

ᘏ䞣 ব࣪⥛(%) CO2/GDP Ҏഛ CO2
೑߿
ⱒϛৼ 2006/1990 a b
23.3 20.3% 㕢೑ 5,696.8 17.1 0.51 19
US Russia Ё೑ 5,606.5 153.6 2.68 4.3
China India ֘㔫ᮃ 1,587.2 -27.2 4.25 11.1
1.2% Germany Japan ॄᑺ 1,249.7 112.1 1.78 1.1
Total
1.4% UK Canada ᮹ᴀ 1,212.7 13.2 0.24 9.5
28,003 million
1.5% tons Italy Korea ᖋ೑ 823.5 -13.4 0.41 10
1.7% France Mexico
1.9% ࡴᣓ໻ 538.8 24.7 0.64 16.5
4.3% 20.0% EU Australia 㣅೑ 536.5 -3 0.32 8.9
14.2
4.5% Others Indonesia ᛣ໻߽ 448.0 12.6 0.39 7.6
5.7% Others 䶽೑ 476.1 107.6 0.71 9.9
1.9% 2.9%
6.5% 1.3% 1.6% ๼㽓હ 416.3 42.1 0.63 4
▇໻߽Ѯ 394.4 51.8 0.82 19
⊩೑ 377.5 7.2 0.26 6
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖OECDˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WDIˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼
⊼ a ग‫ܟ‬/2000 㕢‫˗ܗ‬b˖ৼ/Ҏഛ

೒ 108˖ѻϮ㒧ᵘᰃᇐ㟈䌘⑤㑺ᴳ⫊乜᮹Ⲟࡴ࠻ⱘЏ㽕ॳ಴ ˄%˅

Ё೑ ᮹ᴀ 㕢೑ 䶽೑ ᖋ೑ 㣅೑

᳝㡆䞥ሲ‫⚐ފ‬ঞय़ᓊࡴᎹϮ
⷇⊍ࡴᎹǃ⚐⛺ঞḌ➗᭭ࡴᎹ ៥೑催㗫㛑ǃ催∵ᶧ㸠Ϯ
䴲䞥ሲⷓ⠽ࠊકϮ ऴGDP↨䞡ᯢᰒ䍙䖛OECD
‵㛊Ϣล᭭ࠊકϮ ㄝ5೑ᑇഛ∈ᑇ
咥㡆䞥ሲ‫⚐ފ‬ঞय़ᓊࡴᎹϮ
࣪ᄺॳ᭭ঞ࣪ᄺࠊકࠊ䗴Ϯ
䞛ⷓϮ
ᴎẄ䆒໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ
⬉࡯ǃ➗⇨੠∈⫳ѻ੠կᑨϮ
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖OECDˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

5.1.2 Ԣッࢇࡼ࡯Ꮉ䌘Ϟछ᥼ࡼѻϮ㒧ᵘछ㑻
ࢇࡼ࡯䌘⑤ЄᆠǃӋḐԢᒝϔⳈᰃ៥೑ࠊ䗴Ϯ೼೑䰙㒣⌢ゲѝЁⱘӬ࢓ПϔDŽ߁‫࡯ࡼࢇ׳‬៤ᴀӬ࢓ˈ⹂
ゟњ៥೑ࢇࡼᆚ䲚ൟѻક೼೑䰙ᏖഎⱘゲѝഄԡˈϨ໻䞣໪䌘⌕৥៥೑ࢇࡼᆚ䲚ൟ㸠Ϯ੠催ᡔᴃ乚ඳⱘࡴᎹ
䌌ᯧ㸠ϮDŽ㗠⦄೼ˈ⬅Ѣࢇࡼ࡯կ∖݇㋏ব࣪ᇐ㟈៥೑ࠊ䗴Ϯℷ䴶Јⴔࢇࡼ࡯៤ᴀϞ⍼ⱘᣥ៬DŽ⬅ᆠ຿ᒋ੠
ᑓᎲᴀ⬄᠔ᓩ乚ⱘĀࡴ㭾╂āᓔྟ㫧ᓊ˗Ϟ⍋ǃ⏅ഇǃ࣫ҀㄝഄⳌ㒻ᅷᏗϞ䇗᳔ԢᎹ䌘ᷛ‫ˈޚ‬ĀकѠѨā㾘
ߦᦤߎሙ⇥ᬊܹ㽕Ϣ㒣⌢থሩৠℹˈ䖭乘⼎᳾ᴹࢇࡼ࡯Ꮉ䌘Ϟछᰃ໻࢓᠔䍟DŽ

ࢇࡼ࡯៤ᴀ↨䕗Ӭ࢓ⱘࠞᔅᇚࡴ䗳᮹ᴀǃ㕢೑ㄝথ䖒೑ᆊᇚ⍋໪ᡩ䌘ҢЁ೑䕀⿏ࠄ䍞फǃ⋄೑ㄝࢇࡼ࡯
᳈ࡴᒝӋⱘ೑ᆊDŽ䖭ᛣੇⴔˈ催ᑺձ䌪ࢇࡼ࡯㽕㋴ᡩܹⱘ㒣⌢๲䭓ᮍᓣ೼ᶤ⾡⿟ᑺϞ៪ᇚ䖒ࠄ乊⚍ˈ䖿ߛ䳔
㽕ᇚ๲䭓ᮍᓣҢऩ㒃ձ䴴⫳ѻ㽕㋴ⱘᡩܹ䕀৥ձ䴴⫳ѻ⥛ⱘᦤ催ˈᬍব㽕㋴ᡩܹ↨՟੠ᡔᴃѻક㒧ᵘˈ๲ࡴ
䌘ᴀǃᡔᴃ੠ㅵ⧚ᡩܹˈ֗䖯ѻϮ㒧ᵘ⬅ࢇࡼᆚ䲚ൟѻϮ䕀৥䌘ᴀᆚ䲚ൟ㸠ϮDŽৠᯊˈࢇࡼ࡯ᬊܹⱘᦤ催ᇚ
ࠎ▔⍜䌍੠᳡ࡵϮ䳔∖ˈ֗Փ䌘⑤⬅ᡩ䌘ક੠䌌ᯧકѻϮ৥⍜䌍ࠊ䗴Ϯ੠⍜䌍᳡ࡵϮ䜡㕂DŽ

44 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 109˖᮹ᴀࢇࡼ࡯Ꮉ䌘Ϟछ֗䖯⍜䌍᳡ࡵϮ ೒ 110˖᮹ᴀࢇࡼ࡯Ꮉ䌘Ϟछ֗䖯⍜䌍ࠊ䗴Ϯ

᮹ᴀࠊ䗴ϮᎹ䌘ᣛ᭄ ⍜䌍㉏ࠊ䗴Ϯऴࠊ䗴Ϯѻؐ↨䞡
᮹ᴀ᳡ࡵϮѻؐऴGDP↨䞡˄ে˅ ᮹ᴀ᳡ࡵϮѻؐऴGDP↨䞡˄ে˅
140 75 16 70
120 70 15
65
100 65 14
2005=100

2005=100
60
80 60 13
55
60 55 12
11 50
40 50
20 45 10 45
0 40 9 40
55

61

67

73

79

85

91

97

03

09

55
59
63
67
71
75
79
83
87
91
95
99
03
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖᮹ᴀ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖᮹ᴀ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

5.1.3 ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮᢧሩᡔᴃ䖯ℹᮄࠡ⊓
ᡔᴃ߯ᮄ੠ᑨ⫼ᰃ᥼ࡼ㒣⌢ᮄ๲䭓ⱘЏ㽕ࡼ࡯DŽϪ⬠䖥ҷ৆㸼ᯢˈ↣ϔ⃵ᎹϮ䴽ੑৢᳳˈ䱣ⴔ⾥ᡔ߯ᮄ
ࡼ࡯ⱘ‫ޣ‬ᔅˈ䛑Ԉ䱣ⴔ㒣⌢๲䭓䗳ᑺⱘᬒ᜶੠Ꮦഎⱘࡼ㤵DŽ2009 ᑈ⟚থⱘܼ⧗䞥㵡ॅᴎৃ㛑гϡ՟໪DŽҢ
㸼䴶Ϟⳟᰃ᠓ഄѻֵ䌋䞥㵡ѻક⊵≿࣪᠔ᓩথˈԚ⏅ሖḍ⑤ϔᅮ⿟ᑺϞᴹ㞾Ѣ 90 ᑈҷҹѦ㘨㔥Ўҷ㸼ⱘֵ
ᙃѻϮ䖯ܹ៤❳ᳳˈᇍᅲԧ㒣⌢ⱘᢝࡼ࡯‫ޣ‬ᔅˈ᳔㒜ᓩথњॅᴎDŽℷ಴Ўℸˈ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ៤Ў৘೑Āৢ
ॅᴎᯊҷāⱘᅴ‫ˈܓ‬㕢೑ǃ᮹ᴀǃ⃻ⲳㄝ䛑ᇚ⊼ᛣ࡯䕀৥ᮄ݈ѻϮˈᑊ㒭ќࠡ᠔᳾᳝ⱘᔎ࡯ᬓㄪᬃᣕDŽҢ᳾
ᴹܼ⧗㒣⌢๲䭓ᮍᓣⓨব䍟࢓ǃᡔᴃব䴽ᮍ৥ҹঞ೑䰙ゲѝⱘ⛺⚍ⳟˈೈ㒩㡖㛑⦃ֱǃথሩԢ⺇㒣⌢ǃ㟾໽
ㄝ㸠Ϯ᠔ᔶ៤ⱘᮄ݈ѻϮ㕸ᇚ៤Ўϟϔ䕂㒣⌢਼ᳳ๲䭓ⱘᬃᩥ⚍DŽ᳾ᴹϪ⬠ゲѝ᳈໻⿟ᑺϞᰃᡔᴃゲѝDŽ

㸼 13˖Ԣ⺇㒣⌢ㄝᮄ݈ѻϮᰃ᳾ᴹϪ⬠৘೑ゲѝⱘᮄ⛺⚍
㕢೑ ᮹ᴀ 䶽೑
lj᳾ᴹᓔᢧ៬⬹NJ㽕䞡㾚೑⇥‫ع‬ᒋˈࡴᔎि
⫳⠽ᡔᴃ
⫳ֱ‫ع‬ᡔᴃⷨথǃѻϮ࣪
lj㄀ϝᳳᮄ㛑⑤੠ৃ‫⫳ݡ‬㛑⑤෎ᴀ䅵ߦ
(2008-2030)NJ
˖2012ᑈ៤Ўܼ⧗㄀5໻⾥ᡔ
2009ᑈ߱ˈᘶ໡2006ᑈ‫ذ‬ℶⱘ໾䰇㛑ѻϮ㸹 ᔎ೑˗ᇚ⇶➗᭭⬉∴ǃ໾䰇㛑⬉∴ǃ亢㛑
lj㕢೑໡݈Ϣ‫ݡ‬ᡩ䌘䅵ߦNJ˖ࠊᅮৃ‫⫳ݡ‬㛑
䌈ᬓㄪˈ㒭ќ㸹 㸹䌈ǃԢᙃ䌋ℒㄝӬᚴᬓㄪ ੠✸⇨࣪㘨ড়ᕾ⦃থ⬉߫ЎӬ‫ܜ‬乚ඳ˗ᇚ
⑤ǃᮄ㛑⑤䖰ᳳথሩ䅵ߦ
ᮄ㛑⑤ 2009ᑈ6᳜ˈথᏗlj‫ܝ‬ ‫ܝ‬ӣথ⬉䏃㒓೒2030ׂ ⫳⠽㛑ǃ໾䰇⛁㛑ǃൗഒ㛑ǃഄ⛁㛑ǃ∈
lj2009ᑈᘶ໡Ϣ‫ݡ‬ᡩ䌘⊩NJ㾘ᅮᇚߦᢼ㑺
䅶⠜NJ ˈ䖯ϔℹᯢ⹂᳾ᴹᡔᴃ䞡⚍ˈᦤ催໾ ࡯੠╂∤ㄝ6Ͼᮄ㛑⑤੠ৃ‫⫳ݡ‬㛑⑤乚ඳ
500ғ㕢‫⫼ܗ‬ᴹᓔথ㓓㡆㛑⑤੠ᦤ催㛑ᬜ
䰇㛑থሩⳂᷛ ߫Ў䖥ᳳ᳝ଚϮ┰࡯ⱘ䞡⚍˗೼2011ᑈࠡ
䅵ߦᡩ䌘94.75ғ㕢‫⫼ܗ‬Ѣᮄ㛑⑤੠ৃ‫ݡ‬
⫳㛑⑤ⱘⷨথ
lj᳾ᴹᓔᢧ៬⬹NJ˖ᓎ៤Ϫ⬠㄀ϔ⦃ֱ㡖㛑
lj㕢೑⏙⋕㛑⑤ᅝܼ⊩ḜNJ˖2020ᑈˈ⺇ᥦ ljĀ㓓㡆Ꮉ⿟ā䅵ߦNJ䅵ߦ೼᳾ᴹ4ᑈᡩ䌘
⦃๗ ೑ᆊˈ೼Ԣ⺇ᡔᴃⳌ݇ѻϮⱘᏖഎϞ⹂ֱ᠔
ᬒ䞣↨2005ᑈ‫ޣ‬ᇥ17%ˈ2050ᑈ‫ޣ‬ᇥ 83% 㑺380ғ㕢‫ܗ‬
ऴӑ乱㄀ϔ
ljIT䶽೑᳾ᴹ៬⬹NJ䅵ߦ᳾ᴹ5ᑈᡩ䌘
Āi-Japan៬⬹2010ā
ࠊᅮĀ
lj㕢೑ᘶ໡Ϣ೼ᡩ䌘⊩NJ 0.152ϛ㕢‫ˈܗ‬ᇚֵᙃᭈড়ǃ䕃ӊǃЏ࡯
ֵᙃᡔᴃ lj᳾ᴹᓔᢧ៬⬹NJথሩҹ㓓㡆ֵᙃᡔᴃЎҷ
Ā᳈ᮄ㕢೑ⱘֵᙃ催䗳݀䏃ā䅵ߦ ֵᙃǃᑓ᪁ֵᙃǃѦ㘨㔥ㄝ5Ͼ乚ඳ⹂ᅮ
㸼ⱘ⦃๗ᡔᴃ੠ᱎ㛑Ѹ䗮㋏㒳ㄝ䞡໻乍Ⳃ
ЎֵᙃḌᖗ៬⬹ѻϮ
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ḍ᥂lj৘೑ࠊᅮ⾥ᡔথሩ೑ᆊ៬⬹ ᡶऴᮄϔ䕂๲䭓ࠊ催⚍NJ˄Ҏ⇥᮹᡹˅ㄝⳌ݇䌘᭭ᭈ⧚ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

໻䞣ߚᵤ䆕ᅲˈ䖛এ᭄कᑈ䯈Ё೑ܼ㽕㋴⫳ѻ⥛˄TFP˅催䗳๲䭓ˈᑊᇍᢝࡼ㒣⌢๲䭓থ᣹њ䞡㽕ⱘ԰
⫼DŽԚᰃˈᔧ៥Ӏᇚ⫳ѻ㽕㋴⫳ѻ⥛๲䭓ߚ㾷៤ᡔᴃᬜ⥛੠ᡔᴃ䖯ℹϸ⾡ᴹ⑤ᯊˈথ⦄Ё೑ܼ㽕㋴⫳ѻ⥛ⱘ
ᦤ催Џ㽕㞾Ѣ䌘⑤䜡㕂ᬜ⥛ᬍ୘ᏺᴹⱘᡔᴃᬜ⥛˄TE˅ব࣪ˈ㗠Ϩ㱑✊݊๲䭓䕗ᖿˈԚ㒱ᇍ∈ᑇ೼೑䰙↨
䕗Ёҡ໘䕗Ԣⱘ∈ᑇDŽⳌ↨䕗ˈথ䖒೑ᆊܼ㽕㋴⫳ѻ⥛ⱘᦤ催߭Џ㽕ᴹ㞾ᡔᴃ䖯ℹˈ䖭гᰃᅗӀ໘ѢϪ⬠ᡔ
ᴃࠡ⊓ⱘॳ಴DŽЁ೑㽕ֱᣕܼ㽕㋴⫳ѻ⥛ⱘ๲䭓ˈ㽕᳈催ሖ⃵ϞখϢ೑䰙ߚᎹˈ᳔䞡㽕ⱘህᰃࡴ䗳ᡔᴃ䖯ℹ
˄TP˅ᏺᴹⱘ⫳ѻࠡ⊓ⱘᠽሩDŽ಴ℸˈথሩᮄ݈ѻϮᰃЁ೑೼೑䰙ߚᎹЁᡶऴ៬⬹ࠊ催⚍ⱘ៬⬹䗝ᢽˈᅗৠ
ᯊᇚЎЁ೑᳾ᴹѻϮछ㑻ᦤկњ᳈໮ⱘ䗝ᢽDŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 45
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 111˖ܼ㽕㋴⫳ѻ⥛˄TFP˅ߚ㾷 ೒ 112˖6 ໻㒣⌢ԧᡔᴃᬜ⥛ব࣪˄TE˅

US PRC Japan
ѻߎ Germany France UK
0.040
y 22 f2
0.030
y2 B
0.020
y 21
0.010
y 12 ᡔᴃ䖯ℹ˄TP˅ f1
0.000
y 11
-0.010
y1
-0.020

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002
0 x1 x2 ᡩܹ -0.030

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ѯ⌆ᓔথ䫊㸠ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼
⊼˖ܼ㽕㋴⫳ѻ⥛๲䭓ߚ㾷Ўᡔᴃᬜ⥛੠ᡔᴃ䖯ℹDŽ ⊼˖ᡔᴃᬜ⥛Џ㽕ᰃࠊᑺᬍ䴽ㄝᓩ䍋ⱘᬜ⥛ᦤ催(䘐䖥⫳ѻৃ㛑ᗻ䖍
⬠)ⱘ㒧ᵰˈ೼ϔᅮ䌘⑤ᴵӊϟ໮໻⿟ᑺϞৃҹᕫࠄ᳔໻ৃ㛑ѻߎDŽ

೒ 113˖ᡔᴃ䖯ℹ˄TP˅ব࣪ ೒ 114˖ܼ㽕㋴⫳ѻ⥛˄TFP˅ব࣪
US PRC Japan US PRC Japan
Germany France UK Germany France UK
0.011 0.050
0.009 0.040
0.007 0.030
0.020
0.005
0.010
0.003 0.000
0.001 -0.010
-0.001 -0.020
-0.000 -0.030
1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ѯ⌆ᓔথ䫊㸠ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ѯ⌆ᓔথ䫊㸠ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼
⊼˖ᡔᴃ䖯ℹᰃ߯ᮄ៪ᓩ䖯‫ܜ‬䖯ᮄᡔᴃⱘ㒧ᵰˈᓩ䍋⫳ѻৃ㛑ᗻ䖍⬠
ⱘ໪⿏DŽ

೒ 115˖Џ㽕೑ᆊܼ㽕㋴⫳ѻ⥛˄TFP˅ব࣪੠ᡔᴃ䖯ℹ˄TP˅ ˄%˅

TP TFP
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
Kong,
United

United

Korea,

Hong
Philippines

Singapore
Italy

Thailand
Kingdom

Switzerland
Spain

Austria
PRC

France
Germany

Brazil

Belgium

Sweden
Rep. of
Canada
Japan

Mexico

Malaysia
States

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ѯ⌆ᓔথ䫊㸠ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

46 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

5.1.4 ᇍ໪䌌ᯧ⦃๗‫צ‬䘐ѻϮछ㑻
ᇍ໪ᓔᬒϝकᑈˈЁ೑ᇍ໪䌌ᯧᅲ⦄њ䎼䍞ᓣথሩDŽ៥೑䖯ߎষᘏ乱 1980-2009 ᑈᑈഛ๲䭓 23.8%DŽ䖯
ߎষᘏ乱ऴϪ⬠䌌ᯧᘏ乱ⱘ↨䞡⬅ 1978 ᑈ 0.78%Ϟछࠄ 2009 ᑈⱘ 8%DŽ៥೑ᇍϪ⬠䌌ᯧ๲䭓ⱘ䋵⤂⥛Ңϡ
ࠄ 1%ᠽ໻ࠄ 11%ˈ៤ЎϪ⬠Ϟ㒎㒛ǃ᳡㺙ǃ䵟ǃ㞾㸠䔺ㄝࢇࡼᆚ䲚ൟѻકⱘ㄀ϔߎষ೑DŽৠᯊˈ໪ଚᡩ䌘
㾘῵੠໪∛‫ټ‬໛ᘏ䞣ֱᣕ〇ᅮ催䗳๲䭓DŽ䖭ѯথሩ೼䖛এ 10 ᑈ䯈ᇍ᥼ࡼ㒣⌢থሩѻ⫳њ⿃ᵕⱘ԰⫼DŽ

Ԛᰃˈ䞥㵡ॅᴎৢ䱣ⴔܼ⧗㒣⌢๲䗳ⱘᬒ㓧ˈ䖭ѯ಴㋴ᇍЁ೑㒣⌢ⱘᕅડℷ೼থ⫳ᙘ✊ⱘব࣪˖㒣⌢๲
䭓䴶Јⱘ໪䚼䳔∖ࡼ࡯‫ޣ‬ᔅ˗䩜ᇍ៥೑ߎষԢ䰘ࡴؐࢇࡼᆚ䲚ൟѻક䌌ᯧᨽ᪺䗤⏤๲໮˗Ꮌ乱ⱘ໪∛‫ټ‬໛ࡴ
໻њ䗮㚔੠छؐय़࡯˗ҹ໻䞣ࡴᎹ催∵ᶧǃ催㛑㗫ǃԢ䰘ࡴؐࡴᎹ䌌ᯧѻકЎЏ㽕ᡩ䌘ᮍ৥ⱘ໪ଚᡩ䌘ࡴ࠻
њ䌘⑤⦃๗ⱘᙊ࣪DŽ

㕢೑੠᮹ᴀথሩⱘ㒣偠੠ᬭ䆁㸼ᯢˈձ䴴ߎষᢝࡼ㒣⌢ᰃϔϾ೑ᆊ೼㒣⌢䍋亲ⱘ߱ྟ䰊↉䴲ᐌ᳝ᬜⱘᮍ
ᓣˈԚᰃϡৃᣕЙDŽ೑‫ݙ‬Ꮦഎ䳔∖ᠡᰃᬃᩥ㒣⌢ᣕ㓁๲䭓ⱘḍ෎DŽЁ೑㒣⌢㽕ֱᣕৃᣕ㓁থሩᇚϡᕫϡᬍব
ߎষᇐ৥ⱘ๲䭓῵ᓣ੠ѻϮ㒧ᵘˈҹ‫ݙ‬䳔ҷ᳓䚼ߚߎষˈᑊ᥼ࡼѻϮ㒧ᵘⱘछ㑻ᤶҷDŽ㱑✊ᮄⱘѻϮ㒧ᵘӮ
‫ޣ‬ᇥ䌌ᯧ乎ᏂˈԚै㛑໳߯䗴ߎ᳈໮催Ꮉ䌘ህϮⱘቫԡˈᦤ催ӕϮ߽⍺⥛ˈᬍবᔅ䋻ᏕǃԢᎹ䌘ǃԢ߽⍺থ
ሩ῵ᓣˈⳳℷՓᕫҎ⇥ѿফࠄ㒣⌢๲䭓ⱘᵰᅲDŽ

೒ 116˖៥೑䌘⑤ᆚ䲚ൟ㸠Ϯⱘ䌌ᯧゲѝӬ࢓䗤ℹࠞᔅ˄%˅ ೒ 117˖៥೑ࠊ䗴Ϯ䌌ᯧゲѝ࡯ᣛ᭄䗤ℹᦤछ ˄%˅

ଚકߎষ㒧ᵘ˄%˅ ‫ݰ‬ѻક ➗᭭Ϣⷓ⠽ѻક ࠊ䗴Ϯ
䞛ⷓϮ 亳ક佂᭭⚳㤝 㒎㒛㉏ ᶧ᭭㉏ 1.0
࣪Ꮉ㉏ 䞥ሲ㉏ ᴎẄ㺙໛㉏ ݊Ҫ
0.5
2010 11.6 6.2 58.9 10.9
0.0
2009 12.6 5.3 58.2 11.2

2008
-0.5
11.8 8.7 56.0 11.1

2007 9.0 8.6 63.5 9.3

-1.0
1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё೑ᎹϮ㒳䅵ᑈ䡈ˈWindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WTOˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 118˖ডؒ䫔ゟḜ䇗ᶹ੠᳔㒜㺕‫އ‬᭄䞣〇Ё᳝๲˄䍋˅ ೒ 119˖᮹ᴀᴎẄ㸠Ϯ‫ݙ‬䳔ऴܼ䚼䳔∖↨䞡䍙䖛 60%

ডؒ䫔ゟḜ᭄䞣 ডؒ䫔᳔㒜㺕‫އ‬᭄䞣 ᮹ᴀᴎẄ㸠Ϯ‫ݙ‬䳔ऴᘏ䳔∖↨䞡ˈ%
400 0.75

300
0.70
200

0.65
100

0 0.60
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WTOˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖᮹ᴀ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 47
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

5.2 ѻϮ㒧ᵘϝ㓈䇗ᭈ˖ᎹϮব㓓ˈѻϮব䕏ˈᡔᴃᱎ㛑࣪

5.2.1 ᮄ៬⬹᪀ࡼѻϮ䕀ൟ
ҢĀकѠѨā㾘ߦ㒣⌢থሩⳂᷛ੠ѻϮথሩ䍟࢓ⳟˈ᳾ᴹѨᑈ៥೑ѻϮথሩ䞡⚍ᇚ⬅ᠽ໻կ㒭㾘῵䕀৥
ᦤ催կ㒭ᬜ⥛ˈ䗮䖛Āϸ໻䕀বāˈᅲ⦄ѻϮ៬⬹ⳂᷛDŽ

㄀ϔˈѻϮ㒧ᵘ䕀বüü䞡ลѻϮԧ㋏ˈᦤछѻϮ೑䰙ゲѝ࡯

ĀकѠѨāᯊᳳˈ៥೑ᇚⴔ࡯ᵘᓎϔϾᮄⱘѻϮԧ㋏DŽᅗ䫒᥹┰೼Ӭ࢓ѻϮˈৠᯊ‫ݐ‬乒ᮄ݈ѻϮ੠Ӵ㒳
ѻϮDŽӴ㒳ѻϮ䞡೼ᦤछ೑䰙ゲѝ࡯ˈᅲ⦄⬅໻৥ᔎⱘ䕀ব˗៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ䞡೼෍㚆থሩˈᅲ⦄⬅ᇣࠄ໻
ࠄᔎⱘথሩⳂᷛˈ⫼कᑈᎺেᯊ䯈䗤ℹᇚথሩ៤೑⇥㒣⌢ⱘᬃ᷅ѻϮ੠‫ܜ‬ᇐѻϮDŽᘏԧⳟˈ᳾ᴹѨᑈ៥೑ѻ
Ϯ㒧ᵘ䇗ᭈᮍ৥ᇚヺড়བϟϝ⾡ᗱ䏃˖ ˄1˅ѻϮԧ㋏⬅ᎹϮЏᇐ䕀৥ϝ⃵ѻϮण䇗ᢝࡼ˗
˄2˅ᦤछѻϮ೑䰙
ゲѝ࡯੠ᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ⥛˗˄3˅ѻϮথሩ᳈ࡴ⊼䞡݇⊼䌘⑤⦃๗ǃҎষㄝ಴㋴ⱘᮄ݈ѻϮDŽ៥೑ѻϮথሩⱘ
䞡⚍乚ඳབϟ೒᠔⼎DŽ

೒ 120˖ѻϮ㒧ᵘ䕀ব˖ᵘᓎᮄⱘѻϮԧ㋏

᳾ᴹ䞡⚍থሩѻϮ乚ඳ

⬅ᎹϮЏᇐ䕀৥ϝ⃵ѻϮ
ण䇗থሩ
· ᮄ㛑⑤ǃ㡖㛑⦃ֱǃᮄ㛑⑤≑䔺

· 催ッ㺙໛ࠊ䗴ϮǃᮄϔҷֵᙃѻϮǃᮄᴤ᭭ǃ⫳⠽

ᦤ催ᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ⥛ · 㟾ぎ㟾໽ǃ⍋⋟ǃᅛᅭ

· Ӵ㒳ࠊ䗴Ϯछ㑻ᬍ䗴

· ⷨথ䆒䅵ǃ⦄ҷ⠽⌕ǃ䕃ӊ᳡ࡵϮǃ⬉ᄤଚࡵǃ
䗖ᑨ㒣⌢⼒Ӯথሩ䳔∖˄䌘
ֵᙃ᳡ࡵǃᡔᴃㅵ⧚੼䆶ǃ᭛࣪߯ᛣㄝ⫳ѻᗻ᳡ࡵϮ
⑤⦃๗ঞ⇥⫳ㄝ˅
· ᮙ␌Ϯǃ᭛࣪ǃ⼒Ӯ‫ݏ‬㗕᳡ࡵㄝ⍜䌍ᗻ᳡ࡵϮ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㄀ѠˈӕϮ㒣㧹῵ᓣ䕀বüüথሩ㛑໳ࠊ㚰ⱘᡔᴃ੠Ϯࡵ

ҢϪ⬠ѻϮ䫒ⳟˈⷨথǃ⫳ѻǃ⌕䗮䇌⦃㡖ⱘ䰘ࡴؐ᳆㒓ਜ⦄ϸッ催㗠Ё䯈Ԣⱘᔶᗕˈेⷨথ੠⌕䗮⦃
㡖䰘ࡴؐ催ǃࠊ䗴ࡴᎹ⦃㡖䰘ࡴؐԢˈ໻ԧਜĀᖂュ᳆㒓āDŽℷ಴ЎℸˈӕϮ䯈ⱘゲѝ῵ᓣ㒣ग़њㅔऩゲѝ
ė῾৥໮‫࣪ܗ‬ėൖⳈᭈড়ėḌᖗ䕤ᇘⱘⓨব䔼䗍DŽ݊ЁˈㅔऩゲѝᯊҷˈӕϮゲѝᣐⱘᰃࢇࡼ࡯DŽ῾৥໮‫ܗ‬
࣪ᯊҷˈӕϮձ䴴໮‫࣪ܗ‬ᡩ䌘প㚰ˈӕϮゲѝᣐⱘᰃ䌘ᴀᅲ࡯˗῾৥໮‫࣪ܗ‬ᠽᓴࣙᣀ㒉৥‫ݐ‬ᑊᬊ䌁Ϟϟ␌ӕ
Ϯ੠῾৥ᡩ䌘䴲݇㘨ӕϮϸ⾡῵ᓣDŽൖⳈᭈড়ᯊҷˈӕϮձ䴴䜡㕂Ϟϟ␌䌘⑤ˈӕϮゲѝᣐⱘᰃϞϟ␌ᭈড়
㛑࡯DŽḌᖗ䕤ᇘᯊҷˈӕϮゲѝᣐⱘᰃḌᖗᡔᴃ੠ϮࡵDŽҢ೑䰙ӕϮゲѝ῵ᓣⱘ䖯࣪䍟࢓ˈ៥Ӏ乘䅵ˈথሩ

1
ᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ⥛=˄ᎹϮᘏѻߎ-ᎹϮЁ䯈ᡩܹ+ᑨѸ๲ؐ⿢˅/ᎹϮᘏѻߎ*100

48 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

㛑໳ࠊ㚰ⱘḌᖗᡔᴃ੠ϮࡵᇚᰃӕϮ᳾ᴹゲѝⱘᯢᰒ䍟࢓DŽेӕϮᇚ䴲Ḍᖗ៪㦋߽㛑࡯䕗ԢⱘϮࡵ࠹⾏ˈ䕀
৥䗑∖ᥠᦵḌᖗ䚼ӊঞḌᖗᡔᴃࠊ催⚍ˈҹℸᅲ⦄ᇍᭈϾѻϮⱘḌᖗ䕤ᇘ੠᥻ࠊDŽ

೒ 121˖ѻϮᖂュ᳆㒓

ᦤछᡔᴃሖ⃵
䖜৥߯ᮄⷨথ ᦤ催䰘ࡴӋؐ
ᓔሩܼ⧗䖤ㅍ
䰘
ࡴ ߯ᮄⷨথ ܼ⧗䖤ㅍ
Ӌ
ؐ ᡔᴃछ㑻

ѻϮ
߯ ⷨ 䆒 ݇㒘 ࠊ 㺙 ⠽ 㸠 ક
Ӌؐ䫒 ᮄ থ 䅵 䬂ӊ 䗴 䜡 ⌕ 䫔 ⠠
䳊

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖MBA ᱎᑧˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

Ⳃࠡˈ៥೑ѻϮ໻䚼ߚ໘ѢѻϮ䫒ⱘԢッˈϪ⬠䌌ᯧЁϔѯࡴᎹ䌌ᯧӕϮ㦋ᕫⱘ߽⍺া᳝ 1%-2%ˈ㗠
೼ܼ⧗ѻϮ䫒Ё催ッ⦃㡖㦋ᕫⱘ߽⍺ऴᭈϾѻક߽⍺ⱘ 90%-95%ˈԢッ⦃㡖ऴ 5%-10%DŽ෎Ѣℸˈ៥Ӏ䅸Ў˖
៥೑ѻϮথሩ㽕ᅲ⦄‫خ‬໻‫خ‬ᔎⱘ៬⬹ⳂᷛˈӕϮ㒣㧹῵ᓣǃゲѝϮᗕгᇚ䴶Јᵕ໻ᣥ៬DŽҢ೑䰙㒣偠੠䍟࢓
ⳟˈӕϮৃҹ䗝ᢽ໮⾡῵ᓣˈ↨བᥠᦵḌᖗᡔᴃǃ߯ゟ㞾Џક⠠ҹঞѝপ೑䰙⌕䗮⏴䘧Џࡼᴗǃ㒜ッᏖഎ᥻
ࠊᴗˈ৥ѻϮ䫒催ッᓊԌछ㑻ˈᑊ䗮䖛߯ᮄᗻᭈড়ˈ᳔㒜ᓎゟҹᴀ೑䎼೑݀ৌЎḌᖗⱘᮄⱘܼ⧗ѻϮ䫒ᴵˈ
Ң㗠᳈དഄ߽⫼೑‫ݙ‬೑໪ϸ⾡䌘⑤ǃϸϾᏖഎˈ᳔໻䰤ᑺഄ๲ࡴᴀ೑⽣߽DŽ

5.2.2 ᬍ䗴Ӵ㒳ࠊ䗴Ϯ˖⬅㉫ᬒ๲䭓䕀৥㓓㡆๲䭓
䖛এ 30 ᑈˈ೼㉫ᬒൟথሩ῵ᓣϟЁ೑ᎹϮᖿ䗳থሩˈᑊ៤䭓Ў‫݋‬᳝ܼ⧗ᕅડ࡯ⱘϔϾࠊ䗴Ϯ໻೑DŽԚ
ᰃˈ䖭⾡䌘⑤催⍜㗫ǃ∵ᶧᥦᬒ໻ǃᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ⥛ԢⱘӴ㒳ѻϮḐሔℷ䴶Јⴔ᮹ⲞϹ䞡থሩ⫊乜DŽ ĀकѠѨā
㾘ߦᇚᬍ䗴छ㑻ࠊ䗴Ϯ԰ЎѻϮ㒧ᵘ䇗ᭈⱘ佪ԡӏࡵˈᑊࠊᅮњⳌ݇ѻϮᬓㄪⴔ࡯䗮䖛˄1˅ᡔᴃ䖯ℹ˗ ˄2˅
‫ݐ‬ᑊ䞡㒘˗˄3˅⎬≄㨑ৢˈ䰤ࠊ催㗫㛑੠ѻ㛑䖛࠽㸠Ϯ˗ ˄4˅㡖㛑‫ޣ‬ᥦ˗
˄5˅᥼䖯ֵᙃ࣪˗
˄6˅ᦤछѻક䋼
䞣ᷛ‫ޚ‬ㄝ䗨ᕘᅲ⦄ѻϮछ㑻ˈさ⸈䌘⑤⦃๗⫊乜㑺ᴳDŽ

៥Ӏ䅸Ў˖᳾ᴹ 5-10 ᑈˈ೼ᮄ݈ѻϮ੠ᬓㄪ᥼ࡼϟˈৃҹᳳᕙ៥೑Ӵ㒳ࠊ䗴Ϯ೼㒘㒛㒧ᵘǃ⎬≄㨑ৢ

੠ֵᙃ࣪∈ᑇϞ᳝ᅲ䋼ᗻᦤ催ˈⳳℷᅲ⦄⬅ࠊ䗴Ϯ໻೑৥ࠊ䗴Ϯᔎ೑ⱘ䕀বDŽ೼ѻϮ๲䭓ḐሔϞˈӴ㒳ࠊ䗴
Ϯᇚ⬅㉫ᬒ๲䭓䕀৥㓓㡆๲䭓ˈ㸠Ϯ㛑㗫੠ᥦ∵∈ᑇǃᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ⥛ᇚᯢᰒᬍ୘˗Ԣ㛑㗫ǃ催ᬜ⥛㸠Ϯѻؐ
↨䞡ऴᎹϮѻؐⳌᇍϞछDŽ乘䅵ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈ˈᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ㛑㗫↨ĀकϔѨā᳿䰡Ԣ 20%ˈᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ⥛
ᦤ催㟇 30%DŽ

㸼 14˖᳾ᴹ 5-10 ᑈӴ㒳ࠊ䗴Ϯᭈড়ᇚӮࡴ䗳ˈ᳝ᳯপᕫᅲ䋼ᗻさ⸈

㸠Ϯ कѠѨⳂᷛ Ⳃࠡ⢊‫މ‬
䍙䖛ғৼ㑻ⱘ✸⚁ӕϮ䲚ಶҙ᳝⼲ढ੠Ё✸ㄝ 2
✸⚁ ᔶ៤ 8-10 Ͼғৼ㑻੠ 8-10 Ͼ 5000 ϛৼ㑻⡍໻ൟ✸⚁ӕϮ䲚ಶ
ᆊ˗䍙䖛 5000 ϛৼ㑻ⱘ᳝ 6 ᆊӕϮ
ᔶ៤㢹ᑆϾ 2000 ϛৼ㑻ⱘ⚐⊍Ꮦഎ෎ഄˈܼ೑⚐ॖᑇഛ㾘῵䍙䖛 600 2000 ϛৼ㑻ⱘ⚐⊍෎ഄҙ᳝䬛⍋ǃ㣖ৡ੠໻䖲⷇⊍
⷇࣪
ϛৼ/ᑈˈЭ䝛㺙㕂ᑇഛ㾘῵䖒ࠄ 60 ϛৼ/ᑈҹϞ 3 ᆊ⚐⊍෎ഄˈܼ೑⚐ॖᑇഛ㾘῵㑺Ў 570 ϛৼ/ᑈ
෎ᴀ㥃⠽Џ㽕ક⾡䫔䞣ሙࠡ 20 ԡӕϮᏖഎӑ乱䖒ࠄ 80%˗ए㥃ⱒᔎӕ ࠡ 3 ᆊए㥃ӕϮ䫔ଂᬊܹऴܼ㸠Ϯ䫔ଂᬊܹ↨䞡ҙ
ए㥃
Ϯ䫔ଂᬊܹऴࠄܼ㸠Ϯ䫔ଂᬊܹ 50%ҹϞ 7%˗ࠡ 10 ᆊӕϮ䲚Ёᑺ䖒ࠄ 13%-14%
೑‫ ࠡݙ‬5 ৡ䩶䪕ӕϮѻ㛑ऴܼ೑ѻ㛑↨՟䖒ࠄ 45%ˈ⊓⍋⊓∳䩶䪕ӕ ࠡ 5 ᆊ䩶䪕ӕϮѻ㛑ऴܼ೑ѻ㛑↨䞡㑺ऴ 30%Ꮊ
Ϯѻ㛑ऴܼ೑ѻ㛑ⱘ↨՟䖒ࠄ 40%˗2011 ᑈˈᔶ៤޴Ͼѻ㛑೼ 5000 ϛ েˈ⊓⍋⊓∳Џ㽕䩶䪕ӕϮѻ㛑ऴܼ೑ѻ㛑ⱘ↨䞡
䩶䪕
ৼҹϞˈ‫݋‬᳝䕗ᔎ೑䰙ゲѝ࡯ⱘ⡍໻ൟ䩶䪕ӕϮˈᔶ៤㢹ᑆϾѻ㛑೼ 㑺ऴ 15%˗1000-5000 ϛৼⱘ䩶䪕ӕϮ㑺᳝ 10 ໮ᆊ˗
1000-3000 ϛৼ㑻ⱘ໻ൟ䩶䪕ӕϮ 5000 ϛৼҹϞ䩶䪕ӕϮᇮ᮴DŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 49
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

㸠Ϯ कѠѨⳂᷛ Ⳃࠡ⢊‫މ‬
Ⳃࠡᇮ≵᳝䍙䖛 400 ϛ䕚ⱘ໻ൟ≑䔺ӕϮ䲚ಶˈ᳝
ᔶ៤ 2-3 ᆊѻ䫔㾘῵䍙䖛 400-500 ϛ䕚ⱘ໻ൟ≑䔺ӕϮ䲚ಶˈ㢹ᑆᆊѻ
5 ᆊ䫔ଂ㾘῵䍙䖛 100 ϛ䕚ⱘӕϮ˗ࠡ 5 ᆊӕϮѻ
≑䔺 䫔㾘῵䍙䖛 100 ϛ䕚ⱘ≑䔺ӕϮ䲚ಶ˗ѻ䫔㾘῵ऴᏖഎ㾘῵ 90%ҹϞ
䫔㾘῵ऴᏖഎ㾘῵↨՟㑺Ў 70%ˈࠡ 10 ᆊӕϮ㑺
ⱘ≑䔺ӕϮ䲚ಶ᭄䞣⬅Ⳃࠡⱘ 14 ᆊ‫ޣ‬ᇥ䖒 10 ᆊҹ‫ݙ‬
ऴ 85%
ᴎẄ Ꮉ⿟ᴎẄⱒᔎӕϮ䫔ଂ㾘῵䖒ࠄܼ㸠Ϯ 85%ҹϞ ࠡ 5 ᆊᎹ⿟ᴎẄӕϮ䫔ଂᬊܹऴܼ㸠Ϯ↨䞡㑺 30%
ᔶ៤㢹ᑆϧϮ࣪⍋⋟Ꮉ⿟㺙໛ࠊ䗴෎ഄ˗⦃⏸⍋⑒ǃ䭓∳ষ੠⦴∳ষ៤
㠍㠊
ЎϪ⬠㑻䗴㠍෎ഄ
ᔶ៤㢹ᑆᆊ‫݋‬᳝೑䰙ゲѝ࡯ⱘ⾥Ꮉ䌌ϔԧ࣪໻ൟӕϮ䲚ಶˈᔶ៤ϔᡍখ
㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ
Ϣ೑䰙ߚᎹⱘ“ϧǃ㊒ǃ⡍“ϧϮ࣪䳊䚼ӊ⫳ѻӕϮ
⿔ೳ ᔶ៤ 2-3 Ͼ‫݋‬᳝೑䰙ゲѝ࡯ⱘ໻ൟ᳝㡆䞥ሲ䲚ಶ
ࠡ 10 ᆊӕϮ∈⊹ѻ䞣䖒ࠄܼ೑∈⊹ѻ䞣ⱘ 35%ˈࠡ 10 ᆊⱘᑇഛ㾘῵ ࠡ 10 ᆊӕϮ∈⊹ѻ䞣ऴܼ೑∈⊹ѻ䞣ⱘ 25%Ꮊে˗
∈⊹
໻Ѣ 7000 ϛৼѻ㛑
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖থᬍྨˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㸼 15˖ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈ᵘᓎ⎬≄㨑ৢѻ㛑ⱘ䭓ᬜᴎࠊˈᔎ࣪㑺ᴳᗻᷛ‫ࠊⱘޚ‬ᅮ੠ᅲᮑ
Џ㽕㸠Ϯ
∈⊹ lj∈⊹㸠Ϯ‫ܹޚ‬ᴵӊNJ
䩶䪕 lj䩶䪕㸠Ϯ⫳ѻ㒣㧹㾘㣗ᴵӊNJ
≑䔺 ljᎹֵ䚼 20 乍≑䔺㸠Ϯᷛ‫ޚ‬NJ
䗮ֵ ljᎹֵ䚼 12 乍䗮ֵ㸠Ϯᷛ‫ޚ‬NJǃlj㔥㒰Ѧ㘨Ѧ䗮ᡔᴃᷛ‫ޚ‬NJ
䕏Ꮉ lj䕏Ꮉ㸠Ϯᷛ‫ޚ‬䅵ߦ乍ⳂNJǃlj⬉ᄤᴳ⛞᥹Ꮉ㡎ᣛफᷛ‫ޚ‬NJǃlj㒎㒛㸠Ϯᷛ‫ޚ‬NJ
ᴎẄ lj⬉ᄤᴳ⛞᥹Ꮉ㡎ᣛफᷛ‫ޚ‬NJǃljᴎẄ㸠Ϯᷛ‫ޚ‬NJǃ
ࣙ㺙 lj⬉ᄤᴳ⛞᥹Ꮉ㡎ᣛफᷛ‫ޚ‬NJ
⫳⠽ lj⫳⠽⡍ᕕ䆚߿ᷛ‫ޚ‬NJ
lj໮᱊⸙㸠Ϯ‫ܹޚ‬ᷛ‫ޚ‬NJǃlj䪐㸠Ϯ‫ܹޚ‬ᴵӊᛣ㾕NJǃlj㗤☿㉬ೳ˄催䪱㉬ೳ˅㸠Ϯᷛ‫ޚ‬NJǃlj㧸⷇㸠Ϯ㸠Ϯ‫ܹޚ‬ᷛ‫ޚ‬NJǃljञᇐ
ᴤ᭭
ԧ✻ᯢ⬉ᄤ㸠Ϯᷛ‫ޚ‬NJ
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖থᬍྨˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 122˖៥೑ᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ⥛Ў 26.5%ˈ䖰ԢѢথ䖒೑ᆊ 35%-40%ⱘᑇഛ∈ᑇ ˄%˅

Ё೑ᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ⥛˄2007˅ ᮹ᴀᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ⥛˄2007˅
70
60 50
48 46 45
50 38 38 39 36 43 35 39 42 43 39 42 39
40 31 32 31 33
28 29
30 57
20
10 29 29 28 29 29 27 28 33 26 28 28 26 31 27 25 26 28 26 25 20 27
17 4
0
᳼ᴤࡴᎹঞ᳼ǃネǃ㮸ǃẩǃ

᭭ࡴᎹϮ

Ҫ⬉ᄤ䆒໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ

⫼ᴎẄࠊ䗴Ϯ
Ⲃ䴽ǃ↯Ⲃǃ㖑↯(㒦)

࣪ᄺঞࠊકࠊ䗴Ϯ

‵㛊ࠊકϮ

ล᭭ࠊકϮ

䴲䞥ሲⷓ⠽ࠊકϮ

䗮ֵ䆒໛ǃ䅵ㅫᴎঞ݊

Ҿ఼Ҿ㸼ঞ᭛࣪ǃࡲ݀
ܼ೑ᘏ䅵

亳ક

佂᭭⚳㤝

㒎㒛᳡㺙Ϯ

ᆊ‫ࠊ݋‬䗴Ϯ

䗴㒌ঞ㒌ࠊકϮ

ॄࠋϮ੠䆄ᔩၦҟⱘ໡ࠊ

᭛ᬭԧ㚆⫼કࠊ䗴Ϯ
⷇⊍ࡴᎹǃ⚐⛺ঞḌ➗

咥㡆䞥ሲ‫⚐ފ‬ঞय़ᓊࡴᎹϮ

᳝㡆䞥ሲ‫⚐ފ‬ঞय़ᓊࡴᎹϮ

䞥ሲࠊકϮ

䗮⫼䆒໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ

Ѹ䗮䖤䕧䆒໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ

⬉⇨ᴎẄঞ఼ᴤࠊ䗴Ϯ
ঞ݊ࠊકϮ

㤝ࠊકϮ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈ᮹ᴀ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

50 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 123˖ᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ⥛⬅ 26.5%ᦤछ㟇 30%Ꮊে 㸼 16˖ֵᙃ࣪᱂ঞ⥛ᦤ催üüᎹϮ⫼ᴎ఼Ҏ᭄

ᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ⥛:ܼ೑ᘏ䅵 2003 2004 2005 2006 %

31 Ϫ⬠ 800,473 849,603 922,838 950,974 100

30 ᮹ᴀ 348,734 356,483 373,481 351,658 37

29 ᖋ೑ 112,393 120,544 126,294 132,594 13.9

2011-2015ᑈᎹϮ๲ࡴ
28 ؐ⥛ᦤ催㑺4Ͼⱒߚ⚍ 䶽೑ 47,845 51,302 61,576 68,420 7.2

27 Ё೑a 12,333 18,977 27,021 36,531 3.8

26 ⊩೑ 26,137 28,133 30,236 32,110 3.4

25 㣅೑ 14,015 14,176 14,948 15,082 1.6

24 ܼ㕢⌆b 107,047 126,961 143,634 154,680 16.3

1998 2000 2002 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 ࣫㕢⌆c 112,390 123,663 139,984 150,725 15.8

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖World RoboticˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

⊼˖a ࣙᣀৄ⑒˗b ࣙᣀ࣫ǃЁǃफ㕢⌆˗c ࣙᣀ๼㽓હǃࡴᣓ໻੠㕢೑DŽ

೒ 124˖Ӵ㒳ࠊ䗴Ϯऩԡѻؐ㛑㗫ᯢᰒϟ䰡ˈ乘䅵 2015 ᑈᎹϮ๲ࡴؐ㛑㗫䕗 2010 ᑈϟ䰡 20%

ᎹϮᘏѻؐ㛑㗫˄ϛৼᷛ‫✸ޚ‬/ғ‫˅ܗ‬
ᣝ✻ᎹϮᘏѻؐ㛑㗫⬅Ԣࠄ催乎ᑣᥦ߫
2.2 2005 2009 2015
1.7
1.2
0.7
0.2
-0.3
ᑳᓗ䌘⑤੠ᑳᮻᴤ
䗮ֵ䆒໛ǃ䅵ㅫᴎ
⚳㤝ࠊકϮ
ᆊ‫ࠊ݋‬䗴Ϯ
⬉⇨ᴎẄঞ఼ᴤࠊ
Ҿ఼Ҿ㸼ঞ᭛࣪ǃ
Ⲃ䴽ǃ↯Ⲃǃ㖑↯
Ѹ䗮䖤䕧䆒໛ࠊ䗴
㒎㒛᳡㺙ǃ䵟ǃᐑ
᭛ᬭԧ㚆⫼કࠊ䗴

㒎㒛Ϯ
‫ࡃݰ‬亳કࡴᎹϮ
ϧ⫼䆒໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ
䗮⫼䆒໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ
ॄࠋϮ੠䆄ᔩၦҟ
ए㥃ࠊ䗴Ϯ
佂᭭ࠊ䗴Ϯ
ล᭭ࠊકϮ
亳કࠊ䗴Ϯ
᳼ᴤࡴᎹঞ᳼ǃネ
䞥ሲࠊકϮ

‵㛊ࠊકϮ
Ꮉ㡎કঞ݊Ҫࠊ䗴
࣪ᄺ㑸㓈ࠊ䗴Ϯ
ࠊ䗴Ϯ
ܼ೑ᘏ䅵
䗴㒌ঞ㒌ࠊકϮ
䞛ᥬϮ
᳝㡆䞥ሲ‫⚐ފ‬ঞय़
⬉࡯⛁࡯੠∈
⷇⊍ࡴᎹǃ⚐⛺ঞ
࣪ᄺॳ᭭ঞ࣪ᄺࠊ
䴲䞥ሲⷓ⠽ࠊકϮ
咥㡆䞥ሲ‫⚐ފ‬ঞय़
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

5.2.3 Ԣ⺇ൟǃᱎ᜻ഄ⧗ൟᮄ݈ѻϮᇚᅲ⦄䎼䍞ᓣথሩ
Ⳃࠡˈ៥೑៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈๲ࡴؐऴ GDP ↨䞡㑺 3%DŽᣝ✻៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮϝℹ䍄ᗱ䏃ˈĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈៬
⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ๲ࡴؐऴ GDP ↨䞡࡯ѝ䖒ࠄ 8%ˈ2020 ᑈᎺেˈ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ๲ࡴؐऴ GDP ↨䞡䖒ࠄ 15%
ᎺেDŽ᥂ℸԄㅫˈ2015 ᑈᮄ݈៬⬹ѻϮⱘѻؐ㾘῵ᇚ⬅Ⳃࠡ 1.1 ϛғ‫ܗ‬Ꮊেᦤ催㟇㑺 4.5 ϛғ‫ˈܗ‬2020 ᑈ䖒
ࠄ㑺 12 ϛғ‫ܗ‬DŽ2011-2020 ᑈ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ๲ࡴؐᑈഛ໡ড়๲䗳㑺Ў 26%Ꮊেˈᰒ㨫䍙䖛ৠᳳ GDP ๲䗳DŽ

Ң㸠Ϯ乚ඳⳟˈ៥೑ܹ߫៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮⱘϗ໻ѻϮϡҙヺড়೑䰙ѻϮᡔᴃথሩᮍ৥ˈϨ㛑໳ЎӴ㒳ѻ
Ϯⱘछ㑻ᬍ䗴ᦤկ䞡㽕ⱘᡔᴃᬃᩥˈᬙ᳾ᴹᬓᑰᇍ䖭ѯ㸠Ϯⱘᡩ䌘㾘῵ৃ㛑Ӯᕜ໻DŽᕫⲞѢᬓㄪᡊᣕǃජ䬛
࣪ǃᮄ㒣⌢ⱘথሩ䍟࢓ˈ䚼ߚѻϮ៪䞡⚍乚ඳ᳝ᳯপᕫ䎼䍞ᓣথሩDŽϟ㸼ᦤկњⳌ݇㸠Ϯথሩࠡ᱃ⱘὖ㾜ˈ
‫݋‬ԧⱘߚᵤ㾕䰘ᔩDŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 51
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

㸼 17˖Ԣ⺇ൟǃᱎ᜻ഄ⧗ൟᮄ݈ѻϮᅲ⦄䎼䍞ᓣথሩ
ĀकѠѨā㾘ߦ 䞡⚍乚ඳ੠ᮍ৥ 2011-2015 ᑈথሩሩᳯ˄Ԅ䅵˅
g‫ܜ‬䖯⦃ֱᡔᴃঞѻક˖∵∈ǃൗഒ໘⧚ǃ㜅⸿㜅䫔ǃ催⌧
ᑺ᳝ᴎᑳ∈⊏⧚ㄝ
㡖㛑⦃ֱϮѻؐᇚ⬅㑺 1 ϛғ‫ܗ‬๲㟇 5.3 ϛғ‫ˈܗ‬ѻ
g催ᬜ㡖㛑ᡔᴃ㺙໛ঞѻક⫳ѻ˖䫙♝づ♝ǃ⬉ᴎঞᢪࡼ䆒
ؐᑈഛ໡ড়๲䗳䍙䖛 30%DŽ
໛ǃԭ⛁ԭय़߽⫼㺙໛ǃ㡖㛑ⲥ⌟ᡔᴃ੠㺙໛ǃ䞡⚍⼎㣗ᡔ
㡖㛑⦃ֱ 㡖㛑᳡ࡵϮѻؐ⬅ 2009 ᑈ 588 ғ‫ᦤܗ‬छ㟇 3557 ғ
ᴃㄝ
‫ˈܗ‬໡ড়๲䗳䍙䖛 30%-40%˗݊Ёˈᓎㄥ㡖㛑᳡ࡵ
g䌘⑤ᕾ⦃߽⫼ᡔᴃ੠㺙໛˖ᎹϮᑳᓗ⠽ಲᬊ߽⫼ǃᑳᓗⷓ
Ϯ๲䗳䍙䖛 50%DŽ
ѻ䌘⑤ǃԭ⛁‫⫼߽ݡ‬ᡔᴃǃ‫ࠊݡ‬䗴ѻϮ
g㡖㛑⦃ֱ᳡ࡵϮ
2015 ᑈˈֵᙃ㔥㒰ঞᑨ⫼Ꮦഎ㾘῵㟇ᇥ䖒ࠄ᭄ϛғ‫ˈܗ‬
gֵᙃ㔥㒰෎⸔䆒໛˗ᮄϔҷ⿏ࡼ䗮ֵǃϟϔҷѦ㘨㔥Ḍᖗ ݊Ё
䆒໛੠ᱎ㛑㒜ッ g᭄ᄫ⬉㾚㒜ッ੠᳡ࡵ᳾ᴹ 6 ᑈ㌃䅵ৃᏺࡼ 2 ϛғ
ᮄϔҷֵᙃᡔᴃ gϝ㔥㵡ড়ǃ⠽㘨㔥ǃѥ䅵ㅫ ‫ⱘܗ‬ѻؐ˗
ѻϮ g䲚៤⬉䏃ǃᮄ݈ᰒ⼎ǃ催ッ䕃ӊǃ催ッ᳡ࡵ఼ㄝḌᖗ෎⸔ѻ g⠽㘨㔥ᭈԧᏖഎ㾘῵ᇚ䖒ࠄ 7500 ғ‫ˈܗ‬ᑈഛ໡
g䕃ӊ᳡ࡵǃ㔥㒰๲ؐ᳡ࡵㄝֵᙃ᳡ࡵ ড়๲䭓⥛䍙䖛 30%˗
g᭄ᄫ㰮ᢳㄝᡔᴃǃ᭛࣪߯ᛣѻϮ gѥ䅵ㅫᏖഎ㾘῵ᇚ䖒ࠄ 422 ғ‫ˈܗ‬ᑈഛ໡ড়๲䗳
䖒ࠄ 28.8%DŽ
2015 ᑈˈ䴲࣪⷇㛑⑤ऴϔ⃵㛑⑤⍜䌍↨䞡⬅Ⳃࠡ
7.9%ᦤछ㟇 11%DŽ݊Ёˈ
gḌ㛑˖ᮄϔҷḌ㛑ᡔᴃ੠‫ܜ‬䖯ডᑨේ g໽✊⇨߽⫼㾘῵⬅ 875 ғゟᮍ㉇ᦤ催ࠄ 2600 ғ
g໾䰇㛑˖໾䰇㛑‫ܝ‬ӣ‫⛁ܝ‬থ⬉Ꮦഎ ゟᮍ㉇˗
ᮄ㛑⑤
g亢⬉ᡔᴃ㺙໛˖ᱎ㛑⬉㔥ঞ䖤㸠ԧ㋏ g∈⬉⬅㑺 2 ғग⪺ᦤ催ࠄ 2.5 ғग⪺˗
g⫳⠽䋼㛑 gḌ⬉⬅ 653.2 ᦤ催㟇 3900 ϛग⪺DŽ
2011-2020 ᑈˈ亢㛑ǃ໾䰇㛑੠Ḍ㛑ѻؐ໡ড়๲䗳ৃ
㛑ߚ߿䖒ࠄ 17%ǃ29%ǃ25%ᎺেDŽ
g⫳
⫳⠽ए㥃˖⫳⠽ᡔᴃ㥃⠽ǃᮄൟ⭿㢫੠䆞ᮁ䆩ࠖǃ࣪ᄺ㥃
⠽ǃ⦄ҷЁ㥃
g⫳⠽एᄺᎹ⿟ѻક˖‫ܜ‬䖯ए⭫䆒໛ǃए⫼ᴤ᭭ㄝ
2015 ᑈᎺেˈ⫳⠽ए㥃ѻϮѻؐ⬅ 2009 ᑈ㑺 1 ϛғ
⫳⠽ g⫳⠽㚆⾡ѻϮ˖㓓㡆‫⫳⫼ݰ‬⠽ѻકǃ⫳⠽‫ݰ‬Ϯǃ⍋⋟⫳⠽
‫ܗ‬Ϟछࠄ 3 ϛғ‫ˈܗ‬ᑈഛ໡ড়๲䭓⥛䍙䖛 20%DŽ
䌘⑤ᓔথ
g⫳⠽ࠊ䗴Ϯ݇䬂ᡔᴃ
g⍋⋟⫳⠽ᡔᴃঞѻક
g㟾ぎ˖ҹᑆᬃ㒓亲ᴎ੠䗮⫼亲ᴎЎЏⱘ㟾ぎ㺙໛ gⳂࠡˈ៥೑㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ๲ࡴؐऴ GDP ↨䞡㑺 11%DŽ
gぎ䯈෎⸔䆒ᮑ˖ि᯳ঞ݊ᑨ⫼ѻϮ g乘䅵 2020 ᑈˈ催ッ㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ䫔ଂѻؐऴ㺙໛ࠊ
催ッ㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ g䔼䘧Ѹ䗮㺙໛˖ᅶ䖤ϧ㒓ǃජᏖ䔼䘧Ѹ䗮 䗴Ϯ䫔ଂѻؐⱘ 30%ҹϞˈ೑‫ݙ‬Ꮦഎ⒵䎇⥛䍙䖛
g⍋⋟Ꮉ⿟㺙໛ 25%˗催ッ㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯऴ GDP ↨䞡㑺 7%DŽ
gᱎ㛑ࠊ䗴㺙໛˖᭄ᄫ࣪ǃᶨᗻ࣪ঞ㋏㒳䲚៤ᡔᴃ g乘䅵᳾ᴹѨᑈᑈഛ໡ড়๲䗳䍙䖛 20%DŽ
gᮄ݈ࡳ㛑ᴤ᭭˖⿔ೳࡳ㛑ᴤ᭭ǃ催ᗻ㛑㝰ᴤ᭭ǃ⡍⾡⦏⩗ǃ
ࡳ㛑䱊⫋ǃञᇐԧ✻ᯢᴤ᭭
2015 ᑈˈ࣪Ꮉᮄᴤ᭭ѻؐ⬅ 2010 ᑈ㑺 823 ғ‫ᦤܗ‬催
g‫ܜ‬䖯㒧ᵘᴤ᭭˖催ક䋼⡍⅞䩶ǃᮄൟড়䞥ᴤ᭭ǃᎹ⿟ล᭭
ᮄᴤ᭭ ࠄ 2600 ғ‫ˈܗ‬ᑈഛ໡ড়๲䭓⥛㑺 21%ˈ࣪Ꮉᮄᴤ᭭
g催ᗻ㛑㑸㓈ঞ໡ড়ᴤ᭭˖⺇㑸㓈ǃ㢇㒊ǃ䍙催ߚᄤ䞣㘮Э
㞾㒭⥛⬅ 56%ᦤ催ࠄ 65%DŽ
⛃㑸㓈
g݅ᗻ෎⸔ᴤ᭭˖㒇㉇ǃ䍙ᇐǃᱎ㛑
g2015 ᑈˈ⏋ড়ࡼ࡯ᮄ㛑⑤≑䔺ֱ᳝䞣䍙䖛 100 ϛ
䕚ˈ㒃⬉ࡼ≑䔺䖒ࠄ 30 ϛ䕚DŽ
g݇䬂Ḍᖗᡔᴃ˖ࡼ࡯⬉∴ǃ偅ࡼ⬉ᴎǃ⬉ᄤ᥻ࠊ乚ඳ
g乘䅵᳾ᴹѨᑈ⏋ড়ࡼ࡯≑䔺ǃ㒃⬉ࡼ≑䔺ǃ➗᭭
ᮄ㛑⑤≑䔺 g᥼ᑓᑨ⫼੠ѻϮ࣪˖ᦦ⬉ᓣ⏋ড়ࡼ࡯≑䔺ǃ㒃⬉ࡼ≑䔺
⬉∴≑䔺ⱘѻ䫔䞣ᑈഛ๲䗳ߚ߿㑺Ў 59%ǃ37%
g➗᭭⬉∴≑䔺Ⳍ݇ࠡ⊓ᡔᴃ
੠ 10%DŽ
g2015 ᑈˈ⏋ড়ࡼ࡯≑䔺䫔䞣ऴ↨䖒ࠄ 10%ᎺেDŽ
g⍋⋟៬⬹ᮄ݈ѻϮ˖⍋⋟⫳⠽ǃ⍋⋟㛑⑤੠⏅⍋䌘⑤ᓔথǃ
2011-2015 ᑈˈ⍋⋟ѻϮ๲ࡴؐ⬅㑺 1.8 ϛғ‫ᦤܗ‬催
⍋⋟ѻϮ ⍋⋟ᮄᴤ᭭ǃ催ッ㠍㠊ঞ⍋⋟Ꮉ⿟㺙໛ǃ⍋⋟⦄ҷ᳡ࡵϮ
ࠄ 5.6 ϛғ‫ܗ‬Ꮊেˈ ᑈഛ๲䭓⥛ϡԢѢ 20%DŽ
g⍋⋟⊍⇨ǃ⍋ϞѸ䗮䖤䕧ǃⒼ⍋ᮙ␌ㄝ
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ˈথᬍྨˈᎹֵ䚼ㄝⳌ݇䚼ྨ

52 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

5.2.4 ᳡ࡵϮথሩ䖯ܹᖿ䔺䘧
ᕫⲞѢජ䬛࣪੠ࠊᑺ㑶߽䞞ᬒˈĀकѠѨā㾘ߦᇚ᳡ࡵϮ԰ЎѻϮ㒧ᵘӬ࣪छ㑻ⱘ៬⬹䞡⚍ˈᑊᯢ⹂ᦤ
ߎ㽕໻࡯থሩ⫳ѻᗻ᳡ࡵϮ੠⫳⌏ᗻ᳡ࡵϮDŽ‫݋‬ԧ㸠Ϯሖ䴶ⳟˈ䰸њ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮЁ⍝ঞࠄⱘ㡖㛑⦃ֱ᳡
ࡵϮǃֵᙃ᳡ࡵϮㄝᮄ݈ѻϮ乚ඳᓊԌߎⱘ⫳ѻᗻ᳡ࡵϮ໪ˈ䖬䞡⚍ᣛߎ㽕Ā⿃ᵕথሩᮙ␌Ϯā˗㽕Ā⊼䞡
থ᣹ᆊᒁ੠⼒ऎࡳ㛑ˈӬ‫ܜ‬থሩ⼒Ӯ‫ݏ‬㗕᳡ࡵāǃ㽕Ā᥼ࡼ᭛࣪ѻϮ៤Ў೑⇥㒣⌢ᬃ᷅ᗻѻϮāǃ㽕Āᣝ✻
䗖ᑺ䍙ࠡॳ߭ˈ㒳ㅍ৘⾡䖤䕧ᮍᓣথሩāˈ䞡⚍ࡴᔎ催䗳݀䏃ǃ催䗳䪕䏃੠䗮⫼㟾ぎϮথሩDŽ

Ў᥼ࡼ᳡ࡵϮ๲ࡴؐऴ GDP ↨䞡ǃ᳡ࡵϮህϮ↨䞡䖯ϔℹᦤछˈ乘ᳳĀकѠѨāᯊᳳᬓᑰӮࡴᖿᬓㄪ

ⱘ㒚࣪੠㨑ᅲˈ᥼䖯⿢ᬊԧࠊǃㅵ⧚ԧࠊⱘᬍ䴽ˈ㨑ᅲlj݇Ѣ⏅࣪៥೑Ԣぎぎඳㅵ⧚ᬍ䴽ⱘᛣ㾕NJǃᓎゟ֗
䖯ϝ㔥㵡ড়催ᬜ᳝ᑣᓔሩⱘᬓㄪ੠ᴎࠊ˗ࠊᅮ೼ೳഄկᑨǃ䌘䞥ᡩܹǃ⿢䌍‫ܡޣ‬ǃ䋶ᬓ㸹䌈ǃ⼒Ӯ㵡䌘ǃկ
∈կ⬉կ⛁ㄝᮍ䴶ⱘӬᚴᬓㄪ˗᥶㋶䗖ড়ᮄ݈᳡ࡵϮᗕথሩⱘᏖഎㅵ⧚ࡲ⊩ㄝDŽ

៥Ӏ䅸ЎˈĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈᳡ࡵϮ๲ࡴؐऴ GDP ↨䞡੠᳡ࡵϮऴ GDP ↨䞡থሩⳂᷛৃ㛑ᇚϡԢѢĀक

ϔѨā㾘ߦˈԄ䅵ᦤ催 4%-5%DŽফⲞѢᬓㄪ᥼ࡼˈ᳾ᴹѨᑈ᳡ࡵϮᑈഛ๲䗳೼ 17%ᎺেDŽ݊Ёˈଚࡵ᳡ࡵ
Ϯǃᮙ␌Ϯǃ᭛࣪߯ᛣѻϮǃ⼒Ӯ‫ݏ‬㗕᳡ࡵǃᆊᬓ᳡ࡵϮǃ催䪕੠催䗳݀䏃䖤䕧Ϯㄝ᳡ࡵ㸠Ϯ᳝ᳯপᕫᖿ䗳
๲䭓DŽ

೒ 125˖2011-2015 ᑈ᳡ࡵϮ๲ࡴؐऴ GDP ↨䞡ᦤ催 4% ೒ 126˖2011-2015 ᑈ᳡ࡵϮህϮ↨䞡ᦤ催㑺 5%

GDPᵘ៤˄%˅ ህϮҎਬ:㄀ϔѻϮऴ↨ ህϮҎਬ:㄀ѠѻϮऴ↨

㄀ϔѻϮ ㄀ѠѻϮ ㄀ϝѻϮ ህϮҎਬ:㄀ϝѻϮऴ↨
100%
100%
24 22 29 19
80% 32 33 39 41 42 25 28
46 80% 31 35 40
60% 21
48 48 60% 23 23
43 41 24
40% 47 29
46 47 48 40% 33
46
20% 60
28 30 28 27 52 50 45
20 15 20% 36
0% 12 10 7 28
0%
1978

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

1991 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 127˖Ё೑⾳䌕੠ଚࡵ᳡ࡵϮࡴ䗳থሩ ˄%˅ ೒ 128˖೑‫ݙ‬ሙ⇥䳔∖ᢝࡼᮙ␌Ϯ㸠Ϯᖿ䗳থሩ

Џ㽕ᣛᷛ๲䭓⥛˄%˅ ᮙ␌ᬊܹ๲䗳 ೑䰙ᮙ␌ᬊܹ๲䗳 ೑‫ݙ‬ᮙ␌ᬊܹ๲䗳

⾳䌕੠ଚࡵ᳡ࡵϮ ㄀ϝѻϮ 40
20
15.6 35
15.4
13.9 30 26
15 12.6
25
18 18
10 20
6.9
15 11
27
5 3.5 10 18 17
5 11
0 0
ҢϮҎ᭄ ⊩Ҏऩԡ᭄ ๲ࡴؐ 1993-1995 1995-2000 2001-2005 2006-2009

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖㄀ϝѻϮ㒳䅵ᑈ䡈ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 53
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 129˖᭛࣪߯ᛣѻϮ๲䗳䍙䖛 20% ˄%˅

GDP๲䗳 ߯ᛣѻϮ๲䗳
30%
26%
25% 22%
19%
20%
15%
15% 12% 13%

10%

5%

0%
࣫Ҁ Ϟ⍋ ⏅ഇ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ϟ⍋Ꮦ߯ᛣѻϮणӮˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

䰘ᔩ˖៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ 2015 ᑈࠡ᱃ሩᳯ

˄1˅㡖㛑⦃ֱ

៥೑೼䖛এ 30 ᑈ催䗳㒣⌢๲䭓Ёˈ⬅Ѣ⠛䴶ഄ䗑∖㒣⌢๲䭓㗠ᔅ࣪њᇍ䌘⑤⦃๗䯂乬ⱘ㗗㰥ˈ⬅ℸᇐ
㟈催๲䭓ϟ໻䞣ᑳᓗ⠽ⱘѻ⫳DŽ䖥ᑈˈ䱣ⴔ⦃๗⫊乜㑺ᴳⱘ᮹Ⲟࡴ໻ˈ៥೑ᇍ⦃ֱⱘ݇⊼ᑺ᳝᠔ᦤछDŽĀक
ѠѨā㾘ߦᇚ㡖㛑⦃ֱѻϮᬒ೼៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮⱘ佪ԡˈߌᰒњᬓᑰᇍ㡖㛑⦃ֱѻϮⱘ݇⊼ˈ䖭ᇚ᥼ࡼ㡖㛑
⦃ֱѻϮᖿ䗳থሩDŽḍ᥂lj݇Ѣࡴᖿ෍㚆੠থሩ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮⱘ‫އ‬ᅮNJˈ⦃ֱѻϮᇚ䞡⚍থሩ催ᬜ㡖㛑ᡔ
ᴃ㺙໛ঞѻકǃ‫ܜ‬䖯⦃ֱᡔᴃঞѻકǃ䌘⑤ᕾ⦃߽⫼ᡔᴃ੠㺙໛ǃᑳᮻଚકಲᬊ߽⫼ǃ㡖㛑⦃ֱ᳡ࡵϮㄝDŽ
݊ЁˈĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈㡖㛑⦃ֱѻϮ㾘ߦᇚ䞡⚍݇⊼བϟᄤ㸠Ϯ˄៪乚ඳ˅ ˖

˄1˅ජ䬛∵∈ǃൗഒ໘⧚䆒ᮑᓎ䆒Ꮉ⿟ㄝӴ㒳⦃ֱѻϮDŽ乘䅵ĀकѠѨāᯊᳳܼ೑ᮄ๲∵∈䜡༫ㅵ㔥
ᓎ䆒㛑࡯ 20 ϛৼˈᮄ๲∵∈໘⧚㾘῵ 9000 ϛৼˈछ㑻ᬍ䗴∵∈໘⧚㾘῵ 5000 ϛৼ˗ᮄ๲∵⊹᮹໘⧚㛑࡯
4.7 ϛৼDŽ∵∈໘⧚㛑࡯䕗ĀकϔѨā㾘ߦⱘ 4500 ϛৼ/᮹ᯢᰒᦤ催DŽ
ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈ᮄ๲ൗഒ฿ඟ᮹໘⧚㛑
࡯ 25 ϛৼ˗ᮄ๲ൗഒ⛮⚻᮹໘⧚㛑࡯ 15 ϛৼˈ䕗ĀकϔѨāᮄ๲᮹໘⧚ජᏖ⫳⌏ൗഒ๲ࡴ 16 ϛৼDŽ

˄2˅ᇍ䞡⚍㸠Ϯǃ䞡⚍∵ᶧ⑤ⱘ䰆⊏੠⊏⧚Ꮉ⿟ˈ↨བˈ䭓ϝ㾦ǃ⦴ϝ㾦ഄऎঞ䞡⚍ජᏖࡴᖿ➗✸⬉
ॖ㜅䫔ⱘᓎ䆒ˈ乘䅵 2010-2015 ᑈᮄ๲➗✸⬉ॖ㜅䫔䆒ᮑ 1.8 ғग⪺˗ҹ␬∳⌕ඳЎ䞡⚍ˈᓔሩ䞡䞥ሲ∵ᶧ
⊏⧚⼎㣗䆩⚍˗ࡴ໻䞡䞥ሲ∵ᶧǃॅ䰽ᑳ⠽໘㕂ǃए⭫ᑳ⠽੠ሒⷓᑧ䱤ᙷ㓐ড়⊏⧚DŽ

˄3˅೼䩶䪕ǃ᳝㡆ǃ⷇࣪ǃ䕏Ꮉㄝ䞡⚍㸠Ϯᓎ䆒ϔᡍ⏙⋕⫳ѻⱘ⼎㣗Ꮉ⿟DŽ

˄4˅ࡴᖿ㡖㛑⦃ֱ᳡ࡵϮথሩˈ᳾ᴹ 5 ᑈᑈഛ໡ড়๲䗳㑺 22%DŽ

54 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 130˖乘䅵 2010-2015 ᑈජᏖൗഒ໘⧚⬅ 69%ᦤ催㟇 ೒ 131˖乘䅵 2010-2015 ᑈ∵∈໘⧚⥛⬅ 70%ᦤ催ࠄ

80%ˈ㜅⸿ǃ㜅∂ㄝ໻⇨∵ᶧ໘⧚ѻϮᑈഛ๲ 80% ˈ ∵ ∈ ໘ ⧚ ಲ ᬊ ߽ ⫼ ⥛ ⬅ 8.5% ᦤ छ ࠄ
䭓⥛ 15%-20% 10%ˈ∵∈໘⧚ѻϮᑈ๲䭓⥛ 20%

ජᏖൗഒ⏙䖤䞣ˈⱒϛৼ˄ে˅ ජᏖ⫳⌏∵∈ᥦᬒ䞣ˈғৼ˄ে˅
ൗഒ໘⧚⥛ˈ% ᎹϮᑳ∈ᥦᬒ䞣ˈғৼ
80 200 ජᏖ⫳⌏∵∈໘⧚⥛ˈ%
70 580 ජᏖ∵∈໘⧚⥛ˈ% 80
60 150 480 70
50 60
380 50
40 Ⳃࠡ៥೑ජᏖ⫳⌏ൗഒҹᑈഛ 100
5%-8%䗳ᑺ๲䭓DŽ 280 40
30
180 30
20 50 20
10 80 10
0 0 -20 0
1985

1994

1998

2000

2003

2005

2007

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ⦃ֱ䚼DŽ㒳䅵ሔDŽЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ⦃ֱ䚼DŽ㒳䅵ሔDŽЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 132˖ܼ⧗⦃ֱѻϮᏖഎ㾘῵๲䭓䍟࢓ঞ㸠Ϯ㒧ᵘ ೒ 133˖㡖㛑⦃ֱ᳡ࡵᬊܹ䍙䖛⦃ֱѻકᬊܹ๲䭓
˄10 ғ㕢‫˅ܗ‬ ˄%˅
By Segment ⦃ֱ᳡ࡵϮᬊܹ ⦃ֱѻકᬊܹ
⏙⋕㛑⑤㋏㒳 ᳝ᆇൗഒ໘⧚
⫳ᗕ䌘⑤ᘶ໡ ೎ԧൗഒ໘⧚ 800
∈߽⫼ ⌕⿟᥻ࠊϢ乘䰆ᡔᴃ 700
∈໘⧚ ᑳᓗ⠽໘⧚䆒໛
⦃๗ߚᵤ᳡ࡵ Ҿ఼Ϣֵᙃ㋏㒳 600
ᎹϮ∵ᶧׂ໡᳡ࡵ ໻⇨∵ᶧ᥻ࠊ
⦃๗੼䆶ϢᎹ⿟᳡ࡵ ∈䆒໛Ϣ㥃ક 500 ⦃ֱ᳡ࡵϮᑈഛ໡ড়๲
$ billions

800 䗳䍙䖛22%
400
600
300
400
200
200
100
0
0
1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

1993 1997 2000 2004 2008

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖EBIDŽЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ᑈᑺ䇗ᶹ㒳䅵᭄᥂ 䕀ᓩ㞾lj៥೑⦃ֱѻϮথሩ⦄⢊Ϣ

ሩᳯNJЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㡖㛑⦃ֱѻϮᰃ‫݌‬ൟⱘᬓㄪ⊩㾘偅ࡼൟѻϮˈᵘㄥᬓㄪ⊩㾘ᬃᩥԧ㋏ˈᔶ៤㡖㛑⦃ֱѻϮথሩⱘ⊩ࠊᔎ
ࠊ੠ᬓㄪ偅ࡼˈᰃ㡖㛑⦃ֱѻϮথሩⱘᖙ㽕ᴵӊDŽ៥Ӏ乘䅵ˈᬓᑰᇚӮ䖯ϔℹࠊᅮ੠ᅠ୘Ⳍ݇ᡊỡᬓㄪˈ↨
བ˖㒭ќࡴ໻䋶ᬓ䌈ᙃᡊᣕ࡯ᑺˈ᥼䖯੠ᬃᣕӕϮᡔᬍˈ䰡Ԣ㛑㗫˗ࠊᅮӋḐᬊ䌍ᬓㄪҹঞ䞥㵡ㄝӬᚴᬓㄪ˗
ᓎゟ㡖㛑⦃ֱ੠ᮄ㛑⑤ѻϮⱘӋḐᔶ៤ᴎࠊ˗㒻㓁ᅲ㸠ᔎࠊ⎬≄ࠊᑺˈᓎゟ੠ᅠ୘Џ㽕∵ᶧ⠽੠⺇ᥦᬒѸᯧ
ࠊᑺˈࡴᔎ䌃ᕏĀᦤᷛछ㑻āᎹϮ‫ޣ‬ᥦㄝˈ↨བᦤ催Ѡ⇻࣪⸿ᥦᬒᷛ‫ޚ‬ǃᮄ๲ᇍ➗✸⚳⇨⬉ॖ㜅∂ᅲ㸠ᘏ䞣
᥻ࠊ㑺ᴳㄝ˗᥼䖯㡖㛑ѻકᚴ⇥Ꮉ⿟ˈ䗮䖛䋶ᬓ㸹䌈᥼ᑓ㡖㛑⬉఼˗ࠊᅮljĀकѠѨā㡖㛑⦃ֱ㺙໛ϧ乍㾘
ߦNJˈᓩᇐ㡖㛑⦃ֱ㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ᳝ᑣথሩDŽ

乘䅵 2010-2015 ᑈ㡖㛑⦃ֱϮѻؐᇚ⬅㑺 1 ϛғ‫ܗ‬๲㟇 5.3 ϛғ‫ˈܗ‬ѻؐᑈഛ໡ড়๲䗳䍙䖛 30%˗ܼ⼒

Ӯ⦃ֱᡩ䌘Ѩᑈ㌃䅵䖒ࠄ㑺 3.1 ϛғ‫ˈܗ‬䕗ĀकϔѨāᯊᳳᡩ䌘乱Ϟछ 125%DŽ݊ЁˈජᏖ∵∈໘⧚ǃ∵⊹
໘⧚ǃ㜅⸿㜅䫔ㄝ䞡⚍乚ඳ⦃ֱᡩ䌘㑺 1.3 ϛғ‫ˈܗ‬ᇚᢝࡼ⦃ֱѻϮѻؐ㑺Ў 1.4 ϛғ‫ֱ⦃ˈܗ‬䆒ᮑ䖤㸠䌍
⫼ 0.3 ϛғ‫ܗ‬DŽ乘ᳳ 2015 ᑈ⦃ֱѻϮऴ GDP ↨䞡ᇚ䖒ࠄ 7%-8%ˈ䗤ℹ៤Ў೑⇥㒣⌢ⱘᬃ᷅ѻϮDŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 55
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

೒ 134˖
ĀकѠѨāܼ೑⼒Ӯ⦃ֱᡩ䌘ᘏ乱㑺Ў 3.1 ϛғ‫ˈܗ‬ऴ GDP ↨䞡ᦤ催㟇 1.6%Ꮊে

ܼ೑⦃ֱᡩ䌘˄ғ‫˅ܗ‬ ⦃ֱᡩ䌘ऴGDP↨䞡˄%˅
35000 1.8
30000
30000
25000 1.6

20000
13750 1.4
15000
1.6
10000 7000 1.2
1.4
3447.52 1.3
5000 1306.57
476.42
0 1
ϗѨ ܿѨ бѨ कѨ कϔѨ कѠѨ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ⦃ֱ䚼ˈ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

㸼 18˖䞡⚍㸠Ϯ乚ඳᡩ䌘䳔∖乘⌟ ˄ғ‫˅ܗ‬
䞡⚍乚ඳ ᮄᓎ乍Ⳃᡩ䌘䳔∖ ᮄᓎ乍Ⳃ䖤㸠䌍 ܼ䚼䆒ᮑ䖤㸠䌍
ϔǃජ䬛∵∈໘⧚ 4360 327 572
ᮄᓎ∵∈໘⧚䆒ᮑ 1350 183 625
∵∈໘⧚ॖ䜡༫ㅵ㔥ᓎ䆒 4000 - -
∵∈໘⧚ॖछ㑻ᬍ䗴 250 - -
∵∈‫⫼߽⫳ݡ‬ 110 75 75
ߚᬷᓣ∵∈໘⧚䆒ᮑᓎ䆒 200 150 150
Ѡǃ∵⊹ᅝܼ໘㕂 500 290 290
ϝǃᎹϮ∈∵ᶧ䰆⊏ 460 - -
ಯǃ䴲⚍⑤∈∵ᶧ᥻ࠊ 450 - -
Ѩǃ㜅⸿㜅䫔 1350 420 1033
⬉࡯㸠Ϯ⚳⇨㜅⸿ 600 100 553
⬉࡯㸠Ϯ⚳⇨㜅⸱ 520 300 440
䩶䪕㸠Ϯ⚻㒧⚳⇨㜅⸿ 100 10 30
∈⊹㸠ϮϢᎹϮ䫙♝㜅⸱⼎㣗 30 - -
݊Ҫ㸠Ϯ㜅⸿ 100 10 10
݁ǃᏗ㹟䰸ᇬ 400 10 10
ϗǃජᏖൗഒ໘⧚ 1550 125 572
ܿǃॅ䰽ᑳ⠽੠ए⭫ᑳ⠽໘⧚ 202 217 643
бǃ∵ᶧೳׂຸ໡ 3150 - -
कǃ⦃๗ⲥㅵϢᑨᗹ㛑࡯ 700 300 300
ড়䅵 13122 1689 3420
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖⦃๗䚼⦃๗㾘ߦ䰶ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

˄2˅ᮄ㛑⑤

ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈ˈᮄ㛑⑤ѻϮᇚ䞡⚍থሩḌ㛑ǃ亢㛑ǃ໾䰇㛑੠⫳⠽䋼㛑ㄝ䴲࣪⷇㛑⑤ˈ㗠Ϩ䖬ࣙᣀIGCCǃ
⏙⋕✸߽⫼ǃ✸ሖ⇨ǃ义ች⇨ㄝ৘㉏㛑⑤DŽ

Ў᥼䖯ᮄ㛑⑤ѻϮথሩˈĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈ᬓᑰ䰸೼䞥㵡ǃ䋶ᬓ੠⿢ᬊᮍ䴶ᦤկᬃᣕᬓㄪ໪ˈ䖬᥼䖯䞡⚍
乚ඳᴎࠊᬍ䴽ˈབ⏅࣪⬉࡯ԧࠊᏖഎ࣪ᬍ䴽ǃᅲ㸠ᮄ㛑⑤䜡乱ࠊǃ㨑ᅲᮄ㛑⑤থ⬉ܼ乱ֱ䱰ᗻᬊ䌁ࠊᑺDŽ乘
䅵2010-2020ᑈ䯈೑ᆊᇚ㌃䅵Ⳉ᥹๲ࡴᡩ䌘5ϛғ‫ˈܗ‬ᑈ๲ѻؐ1.5ϛғ‫ܗ‬DŽ

56 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

ḍ᥂㾘ߦˈ2015ᑈ䴲࣪⷇㛑⑤ऴ ೒ 135˖2009 ᑈЁ೑㛑⑤㒧ᵘ˄%˅ ೒ 136˖2015 ᑈЁ೑㛑⑤㒧ᵘሩᳯ˄%˅

ϔ⃵⍜䌍↨䞡ᦤ催ࠄ11%ˈ2020ᑈ䖒 2009年中国能源结构 2015年中国能源结构
ࠄ15%DŽ2015ᑈ᳿ˈ✸⚁⍜䌍↨䞡ϟ 7.0 0.8 9.0 2.6
3.9
䰡7.4Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈḌ㛑ǃ亢㛑ǃ໾䰇 ⫳⠽䋼㛑ㄝ 8.3 ⫳⠽䋼㛑ㄝ
17.9
㛑੠⫳⠽䋼㛑ߚ߿ᦤ催4Ͼⱒߚ⚍ǃ2 ॳ✸ ॳ✸
ॳ⊍ ॳ⊍
Ͼⱒߚ⚍੠1.8Ͼⱒߚ⚍DŽ 17.1
໽✊⇨ ໽✊⇨
∈⬉&Ḍ⬉ ∈⬉&Ḍ⬉
70.4 63.0

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

᥂ Ԅ ㅫ ˈ 2010 ᑈ ೒ 137˖2010-2015 ᑈ䴲⷇࣪㛑⑤⍜䌍ᑈഛ๲䗳 12.9%ˈ亢㛑ǃ໾䰇㛑੠⫳⠽䋼㛑ᑈഛ

-2015ᑈ៥೑䴲࣪⷇㛑⑤ ๲䗳ᇚ᥹䖥 29% ˄%˅
⍜䌍ᑈഛ໡ড়๲䗳ᇚ䖒 ϔ⃵㛑⑤⍜䌍๲䗳 ॳ✸ ॳ⊍ ໽✊⇨
ࠄ12.9%ˈ݊Ёˈ亢㛑ǃ ∈⬉ঞৃ‫⫳ݡ‬㛑⑤ ∈⬉੠Ḍ⬉ 亢⬉ǃ໾䰇㛑੠⫳⠽䋼㛑
໾䰇㛑੠⫳⠽䋼㛑ⱘ๲ 30
亢⬉ǃ໾䰇㛑੠⫳⠽䋼㛑, 28.7
䗳᥹䖥29%DŽ໽✊⇨⍜䌍 25

гӮਜ⦄䕗ᖿ๲䭓ˈᑈ 20
15
ഛ๲䭓㑺20%DŽ 12.7 12.9
10 ∈⬉੠Ḍ⬉, 10.2
8.6
5
0
2000-2005 2005-2009 2009-2015

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖থᬍྨˈWindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

೒ 138˖2011-2020 ᑈ໾䰇㛑Ḍ㛑੠亢㛑ѻؐ㾘῵˄ϛग⪺˅ ೒ 139˖Ё೑䴲⷇࣪㛑⑤↨䞡ᯢᰒԢѢথ䖒೑ᆊ˄%˅

2011 2020 ॳ✸ ॳ⊍ ໽✊⇨
16000 ∈⬉੠Ḍ⬉ 亢⬉ǃ໾䰇㛑੠⫳⠽䋼㛑
100% 0.8 6.0 5.0 2.0 7.0 7.0
14000 ໡ড়๲䗳 7.0 8.0 9.0
4 10.0 9.0 10.0
12000 ໡ড়๲䗳 17.6% 80% 11.0
18 18 23 39 43.0 22
10000 24.5% 23
60%
໡ড়๲䗳
8000
29.2% 15000 40% 44 39 15 32
6000 70 33 47
20% 32
4000 8600
22 24 18 25
0% 3 14
2000
2000
Ё೑

᮹ᴀ

㕢೑

㣅೑

⊩೑

ᖋ೑

㽓⧁⠭

0
໾䰇㛑 Ḍ㛑 亢㛑

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖থᬍྨˈWindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ˈথᬍྨˈIEA

˄3˅ᮄ㛑⑤≑䔺

ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈ˈᮄ㛑⑤≑䔺ѻϮᇚ䞡⚍থሩ乚ඳࣙᣀ˄1˅ࡼ࡯⬉∴ǃ偅ࡼ⬉ᴎǃ⬉ᄤ᥻ࠊ乚ඳㄝ݇
䬂Ḍᖗᡔᴃ˗
˄2˅᥼ࡼᦦ⬉ᓣ⏋ড়ࡼ࡯≑䔺੠㒃ࡼ࡯≑䔺ⱘᑨ⫼੠ѻϮ࣪˗
˄3˅➗᭭⬉∴≑䔺Ⳍ݇ࠡ⊓ᡔᴃDŽ
ḍ᥂lj݇Ѣ෍㚆੠থሩ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮⱘ‫އ‬ᅮNJˈ೼᳾ᴹথሩ䏃ᕘϞˈᦦ⬉ᓣ⬉ࡼ≑䔺੠㒃⬉ࡼ≑䔺ৃ㛑៤
Ў䖥ᳳথሩ៬⬹ⱘЏ⌕˗➗᭭⬉∴≑䔺៤Ў᳾ᴹऴ᥂ܼ⧗Ꮦഎⱘࠊ催⚍DŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 57
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

Ў᥼ࡼЁ೑ᮄ㛑⑤≑䔺ⱘথሩˈ೑ᆊᇚߎৄϔ㋏߫ᡊᣕᮄ㛑⑤≑䔺থሩⱘᬓㄪDŽ݊Ёˈ೼ljѻϮ㒧ᵘ䇗
ᭈ੠ᣛᇐⳂᔩ˄2010 ᑈᴀ˅
NJ哧ࢅ㉏ѻકЁˈᮄ๲њᮄ㛑⑤≑䔺݇䬂䳊䚼ӊ˗ׂ䅶lj≑䔺ѻϮথሩᬓㄪ˄2004˅NJ
ˈ
ࠊ䅶lj㡖㛑Ϣᮄ㛑⑤≑䔺থሩ㾘ߦ˄2011 ᑈ㟇 2020 ᑈ˅
NJ˗䗮䖛໮⾡⏴䘧哧ࢅӕϮᓩ䖯Ϣᮄ㛑≑䔺Ⳍ݇ⱘ‫ܜ‬
䖯䆒໛ᡔᴃ੠݇䬂䳊䚼ӊ˗ࠊᅮlj⬉ࡼ≑䔺⾥ᡔথሩĀकѠѨāϧ乍㾘ߦNJ˗Ё༂ᇚ䆒ゟϧ乍㸹ࡽ䌘䞥ᑊ㒭
ќ⿢ᬊ‫ܡޣ‬㸹䌈DŽ乘ᳳ᳾ᴹ 10 ᑈЁ༂䋶ᬓᇚᣓߎ 1000 ғ‫⫼ܗ‬Ѣᡊỡ㡖㛑Ϣᮄ㛑⑤≑䔺ѻϮ䫒থሩˈ䞡⚍⫼
Ѣᬃᣕ݇䬂ᡔᴃⷨথ੠ѻϮ࣪ǃ⼎㣗᥼ᑓǃᠽ໻݀݅᳡ࡵ乚ඳ੠⾕Ҏ⫼䔺乚ඳ⬉ࡼ≑䔺⼎㣗᥼ᑓⱘ䆩⚍῵ᓣˈ
ࡴᔎᡔᴃ߯ᮄ੠ଚϮ῵ᓣ߯ᮄⱘ㒧ড়DŽ

ফⲞѢ㡖㛑⦃ֱᛣ䆚ǃሙ⇥Ѹ䗮䳔∖ᦤछǃҹঞᬓᑰᡊᣕㄝ໮䞡಴㋴ⱘ᥼ࡼˈ᳾ᴹ 5 ᑈᮄ㛑⑤≑䔺ᇚࡴ
䗳偊ܹᇏᐌⱒྦྷ⫳⌏DŽḍ᥂lj㡖㛑Ϣᮄ㛑⑤≑䔺থሩ㾘ߦ˄2011-2020˅NJˈ2015 ᑈ⏋ড়ࡼ࡯ᮄ㛑⑤≑䔺ⱘֱ
᳝䞣䅵ߦ䍙䖛 100 ϛ䕚ˈ㒃⬉ࡼ≑䔺੠ᦦ⬉ᓣ⏋ড়ࡼ࡯≑䔺Ꮦഎֱ᳝䞣ᇚ䍙䖛 50 ϛ䕚˗2020 ᑈ⏋ড়ࡼ࡯Ь
⫼䔺䫔䞣䍙䖛 300 ϛ䕚ˈ㒃⬉ࡼ≑䔺੠ᦦ⬉ᓣ⏋ড়ࡼ࡯≑䔺Ꮦഎֱ᳝䞣ᇚ䍙䖛 500 ϛ䕚DŽ᥂ℸԄㅫˈ乘䅵
2010-2015 ᑈᡔᴃⳌᇍ៤❳ⱘ⏋ড়ࡼ࡯≑䔺ǃ㒃⬉ࡼ≑䔺ѻ䞣ᑈഛ໡ড়๲䗳ߚ߿Ў 58%੠ 37%Ꮊেˈ➗᭭⬉
∴≑䔺থሩⳌᇍ㓧᜶ˈѻ䞣໡ড়๲䗳㑺 10%DŽ

೒ 140˖⏋ড়ࡼ࡯≑䔺ᑈഛ๲䗳 58% ೒ 141˖㒃⬉ࡼ≑䔺ᑈഛ๲䗳 37% ೒ 142˖➗᭭⬉∴≑䔺໡ড়๲䗳 10%

⏋ড়ࡼ࡯≑䔺˄ϛ䕚˅ 㒃⬉ࡼ≑䔺˄ϛ䕚˅ ➗᭭⬉∴≑䔺˄ϛ䕚˅
100 35 2.5
30 ໡ড়๲䗳37% ໡ড়๲䗳10%
80 ໡ড়๲䗳58% 2
25
60 20 1.5
100
40 15 30 1 2
50 10 1.5
20 15 0.5 1
5
10 3
0 0 0
2010 2013 2015 2010 2013 2015 2010 2013 2015

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼⌟ㅫ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼⌟ㅫ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼⌟ㅫ

˄4˅ᮄϔҷֵᙃᡔᴃ

ᮄϔҷֵᙃᡔᴃᇚ䞡⚍݇⊼བϟ乚ඳ˖˄1˅Ḍᖗ෎⸔ѻϮˈࣙᣀҢ 2000 ᑈᓔྟ೑ᆊ໻࡯থሩⱘ催ッ䕃

ӊǃ䲚៤⬉䏃ѻϮ੠䖥ϸᑈ೑ᆊ催ᑺ䞡㾚੠ᡩܹⱘᮄൟᑇᵓᰒ⼎ѻϮDŽ˄2˅⦄ҷֵᙃ㔥㒰ѻϮˈࣙᣀ៥೑Ꮖ
㒣ᓔྟᏗሔⱘϟϔҷ⿏ࡼ䗮ֵѻϮˈҹঞҢএᑈࠄҞᑈᣕ㓁छ⏽ⱘ⠽㘨㔥੠ϝ㔥㵡ড়ᏺࡼⱘⳌ݇ѻϮ˗ ˄3˅
⦄ҷֵᙃ᳡ࡵѻϮˈࣙᣀ෎Ѣ㔥㒰ⱘᑨ⫼ˈབѥ䅵ㅫǃ䕃ӊⱘ᳡ࡵǃ㔥㒰๲ؐ᳡ࡵϮㄝDŽ

᥂⌟ㅫˈ2015 ᑈֵᙃ㔥㒰ঞᑨ⫼Ꮦഎ㾘῵㟇ᇥ䖒ࠄ᭄ϛғ‫݊ˈܗ‬Ёˈ᭄ᄫ⬉㾚㒜ッ੠᳡ࡵ᳾ᴹ 6 ᑈ㌃
䅵ৃᏺࡼ 2 ϛғ‫ⱘܗ‬ѻؐ˗⠽㘨㔥ᭈԧᏖഎ㾘῵ᇚ䖒ࠄ 7500 ғ‫ˈܗ‬ᑈഛ໡ড়๲䭓⥛䍙䖛 30%ˈᏖഎࠡ᱃䖰
䍙䖛䅵ㅫᴎǃѦ㘨㔥ǃ⿏ࡼ䗮ֵㄝऩϾᏖഎ˗ѥ䅵ㅫᏖഎ㾘῵ᇚ䖒ࠄ 422 ғ‫ˈܗ‬ᑈഛ໡ড়๲䗳䖒ࠄ 28.8%

೒ 143˖ܼ⧗ѥ䅵ㅫᏖഎ㾘῵ᑈഛ๲䭓 26% ೒ 144˖ѥ䅵ㅫᏖഎᇚ៤Ў䕃ӊѻϮ๲䭓᳔ᖿⱘ㒚ߚᏖഎПϔ

ܼ⧗Ꮦഎ㾘῵˄ғ㕢‫˅ܗ‬ Ё೑᭄᥂Ёᖗ˄ғ‫˅ܗ‬ ѥ䅵ㅫᏖഎ㾘῵˄ғ‫˅ܗ‬

450 2500

350 2000 ໡ড়๲䗳17.9%

ᑈഛ໡ড়๲䗳䖒26% 1500
250
442
1000 ѥ䅵ㅫ໡ড়๲䗳28.8%
150
172 500
50

0
-50
2009 2013 2010 2015

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖IDCˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖䌯䖾㔥ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

58 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

˄5˅催ッ㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ

催ッ㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯᰃ催ッࠊ䗴ϮⱘЏ㽕䚼ߚˈᰃѻϮ䫒ⱘḌᖗ⦃㡖DŽথሩ催ッ㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯᰃᅲ⦄Ё೑ࠊ䗴
৥Ё೑߯䗴䕀বⱘ䞡㽕䗨ᕘDŽĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈ˈ催ッ㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯৃ㛑ᇚ䞡⚍থሩᱎ㛑ࠊ䗴ǃ㓓㡆ࠊ䗴੠᳡ࡵ
ᗻࠊ䗴ˈ䗖ᑨ៥೑ᎹϮ䕀ൟछ㑻੠៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮথሩⱘ䳔∖DŽ‫݋‬ԧ⍝ঞⱘѻϮ乚ඳࣙᣀ㟾ぎ㺙໛ǃि᯳ѻ
Ϯˈ䔼䘧Ѹ䗮㺙໛ǃ⍋⋟Ꮉ⿟㺙໛ㄝˈ䖭ᇚᏺࡼ㟾ぎǃ催䪕ǃᅛᅭ੠⍋⋟ㄝⳌ݇㸠Ϯࡴ䗳থሩDŽḍ᥂㾘ߦˈ
催ッ㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯᇚ䗤ℹ෍㚆៤Ў೑⇥㒣⌢ᮄⱘᬃ᷅ѻϮˈ䖭ড᯴㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ೼᳾ᴹ 5-10 ᑈ‫ݙ‬೼៥೑ѻϮ㒧
ᵘЁҡऴ㒱ᇍӬ࢓DŽ

⬅Ѣ㺙໛ࠊ䗴ヺড়⦄᳝ѻϮᬍ䗴छ㑻ˈҹঞ៬⬹ᮄ݈ѻϮさ⸈ⱘঠ䞡Փੑˈ乘䅵ᇚ೼Ҟৢᕫࠄᬓㄪⱘ䞡
⚍ᬃᣕDŽҢᎹֵ䚼Ꮖ㒣݀ᏗⱘᮄൟᎹϮ࣪⼎㣗෎ഄৡऩᯧ㾕ˈ㄀ϔᡍ݀Ꮧ 62 ӕϮৡऩЁ᳝ 25 㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ෎
ഄ˗㄀Ѡᡍ݀Ꮧ 66 Ͼ⼎㣗෎ഄৡऩЁ᳝ 14 ᆊ㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ෎ഄˈԡሙ᠔᳝ѻϮП佪DŽ乘ᳳĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈ᬓ
ᑰӮࡴᔎᡔᴃᬍ䗴࡯ᑺˈᡩ䌘㾘῵໻㑺 600 ғ‫˄ܗ‬䖲㓁ϝᑈ↣ᑈᅝᥦ 200 ғ˅ˈ䖭ᇚ᳝ᳯᏺࡼ 5000 ғ‫⼒ܗ‬Ӯ
ᡩ䌘੠ 2000 ғ‫ܗ‬䆒໛䞛䌁ᡩ䌘DŽ঺ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈ৃ㛑ᇚ೼Ё೑ⱘ䖥⍋໻䰚ᶊ੠໻䰚വ‫ݡ‬ᓎ䆒 5000 ϛৼⱘ
ѻ㛑ˈ䖭ᇚᏺࡼⱘ⍋⋟Ꮉ⿟㺙໛ᘏᡩ䌘ᇚ䍙䖛 2500 ғ‫ܗ‬DŽ

㸼 19˖催ッ㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ哧ࢅ㉏㒚ߚ㸠Ϯ៪乚ඳ
ᄤ㸠Ϯ 乚ඳ៪ᮍ৥
ҹᑆᬃ㒓亲ᴎ੠䗮⫼亲ᴎЎЏⱘ㟾ぎ㺙㕂ˈ໻ൟ亲ᴎⷨࠊǃᬃ㒓亲ᴎǃ䗮⫼亲ᴎ੠Ⳉछᴎǃথࡼᴎ䞡㽕ᴎ䕑㋏㒳
㟾ぎ
੠݇䬂䆒໛ǃ㟾ぎ໻䚼ӊぎЁѸ䗮ㅵ⧚㋏㒳ǃ‫ܜ‬䖯㟾ሩ䆒໛
㟾໽ ぎ䯈෎⸔䆒ᮑᓎ䆒ǃि᯳ঞ݊ᑨ⫼
থሩࢬ᥶ǃᓔথǃ⫳ѻǃࡴᎹǃ‫ټ‬䖤㺙໛˗⍋Ϟ԰ϮϢ䕙ࡽ᳡ࡵ㺙໛ǃ⡍⾡䌘⑤ᓔথ㺙໛ǃ໻ൟ⍋Ϟ㒧ᵘ⠽ǃ⍋
⍋⋟
ϟ㋏㒳ҹঞ݇䬂䆒໛Ϣ㋏㒳˗⍋⋟ৃ‫⫳ݡ‬㛑⑤߽⫼㺙໛ǃ⍋ᑩⷓѻ䌘⑤㺙໛ǃ⍋⋟ⲥ⌟䆒໛ⷨথ੠߯ᮄ
䪕䏃 䔼䘧Ѹ䗮㺙໛ˈⷨথ催䗳߫䔺ǃЁϧ߫䔺ǃජ䰙੠ජᏖᖿ᥋䔼䘧䔺䕚߫䔺䖤㸠᥻ࠊ㋏㒳
ᱎ㛑㺙໛ࠊ䗴 ㊒ᆚ੠ᱎ㛑Ҿ㸼Ϣ䆩偠䆒໛ǃᱎ㛑᥻ࠊ㋏㒳ǃ݇䬂෎⸔䳊䚼ӊǃ催ḷ᭄᥻ᴎᑞ
ᱎ㛑⬉㔥ঞ݊䆒໛ ⡍催य़䕧䜡⬉䆒໛ǃᱎ㛑⬉㔥䆒໛ǃߚᏗᓣ⬉㔥䆒໛ǃᱎ㛑䜡⬉䆒໛ǃᱎ㛑⫼⬉䆒໛ঞᎼൟ‫ټ‬㛑䆒໛
݊Ҫ ᮄ㛑⑤থ⬉䆒໛ǃ⠽㘨㔥ঞ݊䆒໛ǃ㡖㛑⦃ֱϢ䌘⑤㓐ড়߽⫼䆒໛
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

Ⳃࠡˈ៥೑㺙໛ࠊ ೒ 145˖Ё೑㺙໛㸠Ϯ๲ࡴؐϡᮁ๲䭓ˈऴ GDP ↨䞡ᦤछ

䗴Ϯ๲ࡴؐऴGDP↨䞡 㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯѻؐˈⱒϛ‫˄ܗ‬ে˅ 㺙໛ࠊ䗴ϮѻؐऴGDP↨䞡ˈ%
㑺11%DŽ2005ᑈҹᴹᑈഛ
14 20,000,000
๲䗳25%DŽ乘䅵2020ᑈˈ
13
催ッ㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ䫔ଂѻ 15,000,000
ؐऴ㺙໛ࠊ䗴Ϯ䫔ଂѻ 12
10,000,000
ؐⱘ30%ҹϞˈ೑‫ݙ‬Ꮦഎ 11
⒵䎇⥛䍙䖛25%˗催ッ㺙 5,000,000
10
໛ࠊ䗴ϮऴGDP↨䞡㑺
7%DŽ 9 0
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

˄6˅ᮄᴤ᭭

ᮄᴤ᭭ѻϮ⏫䗣ࠄ೑⇥㒣⌢৘㸠Ϯˈᰃ⒵䎇㸠Ϯথሩ⡍߿ᰃ㛑⑤ǃ⫳⠽ǃֵᙃǃ㟾໽ㄝ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ
থሩⱘ䞡㽕෎⸔ˈЁ೑ℷ೼ⴔ࡯᥼䖯ⱘ໻亲ᴎǃ催䗳߫䔺ǃ⬉ࡼ≑䔺ǃ⬉ᄤֵᙃ੠㡖㛑⦃ֱㄝӫ໮ѻϮথሩ
䛑ᇚձ䌪ᮄᴤ᭭ⱘথሩDŽᤶ㿔Пˈ᳾ᴹ㡖㛑‫ޣ‬ᥦǃԢ⺇ᡔᴃথሩ䛑⾏ϡᓔᮄᴤ᭭ѻϮⱘথሩDŽĀकѠѨāᯊ
ᳳᴤ᭭ѻϮথሩᗱ䏃⬅ĀकϔѨāᯊᳳᡔᴃᇐ৥䕀৥ѻϮ੠㒣⌢䳔∖ᇐ৥ˈᇚ䞡⚍݇⊼ࠡ⊓ᡔᴃǃ៬⬹ᗻᮄ
݈ѻϮǃ䞡⚍ѻϮㄝϝ㉏ᮄᴤ᭭থሩDŽЎࡴᖿᮄᴤ᭭催ᡔᴃѻϮ࣪থሩˈϝ㉏ᴤ᭭থሩߚ߿ܹ߫ 863 Џ乬䅵
ߦǃ863 䞡໻䅵ߦ੠ᬃᩥ䅵ߦDŽ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 59
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

㸼 20˖ᮄᴤ᭭哧ࢅ㉏㒚ߚ㸠Ϯ៪乚ඳ
ᄤ㸠Ϯ 乚ඳ៪ᮍ৥
ࠡ⊓ᡔᴃ ‫ܜ‬䖯䍙ᇐᴤ᭭ǃᱎ㛑Ϣ⡍⾡ࡳ㛑ǃ㒇㉇ᴤ᭭Ϣ఼ӊǃ‫⬉ܝ‬ᄤǃᖂ⬉ᄤǃ催ᗻ㛑㒧ᵘᴤ᭭ǃ催ᬜ㛑⑤ᴤ᭭ǃ⫳ᗕ⦃๗ᴤ᭭
៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ ञᇐԧ✻ᯢᴤ᭭ǃᮄൟᰒ⼎ᴤ᭭ǃ催ᗻ㛑⬉∴ᴤ᭭ǃ⿔ೳࡳ㛑ᴤ᭭ǃ催ᗻ㛑㑸㓈ঞ໡ড়ᴤ᭭ǃ‫⇥ݯ‬ϸ⾡ᴤ᭭
催ᗻ㛑⬉∴ᴤ᭭˖໾䰇㛑⬉∴ǃ➗᭭⬉∴ㄝথ⬉⬉∴ˈ䫖⾏ᄤ⬉∴ㄝࡼ࡯⬉∴ˈ⬉㾷䋼ǃℷᵕᴤ᭭ǃ⾏ᄤѸᤶ㝰ㄝᡔᴃ
⿔ೳࡳ㛑ᴤ᭭˖থ‫ܝ‬ᴤ᭭ǃ⺕ᗻᴤ᭭ǃ‫࣪ڀ‬ᴤ᭭ㄝ
催ᗻ㛑㑸㓈ঞ໡ড়ᴤ᭭˖⺇㑸㓈ǃ㢇㒊ǃ䍙催ߚᄤ䞣㘮Э⛃㑸㓈ㄝ
䞡⚍㸠Ϯ ⷇࣪ǃ䩶䪕ǃ㒎㒛ǃ᳝㡆ǃ䕏Ꮉǃᓎᴤ
࣪Ꮉᮄᴤ᭭ Ꮉ⿟ล᭭ǃ催ᗻ㛑㑸㓈ঞ໡ড়ᴤ᭭ǃ⦃ֱ㡖㛑ᴤ᭭ǃᮄൟ㝰ᴤ᭭
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

Ў᥼ࡼᮄᴤ᭭ѻϮ࣪੠䲚㘮࣪ⱘথሩˈ೑ᆊᇚࠊᅮϔ㋏߫ᬓㄪˈࣙᣀljᮄᴤ᭭ѻϮĀकѠѨāথሩ㾘ߦNJǃ
lj⷇࣪㸠ϮĀकѠѨā㾘ߦПᮄᴤ᭭㆛NJ
ǃlj⿔ೳ㸠ϮĀकѠѨā㾘ߦNJǃ
lj⇳࣪Ꮉ㸠ϮĀकѠѨā㾘ߦNJǃ
ljĀक
ѠѨā䩦䩯䌘⑤߽⫼ѻϮ෎ഄ㾘ߦNJㄝᮄᴤ᭭㸠Ϯϧ乍㾘ߦˈᑊ䅵ߦ೼ܼ೑䆒ゟ໮Ͼᮄᴤ᭭ᎹϮುऎˈЏ㽕
ߚᏗ೼⦃⏸⍋㒣⌢ऎǃ䭓ϝ㾦੠⦴ϝ㾦㒣⌢ऎҹঞЁ㽓䚼ഄऎⱘЁᖗජᏖDŽ↨བˈᑓϰᑓᎲᏖǃ⊇फⳕߚ߿
䆒ゟĀᮄᴤ᭭ѻϮ೑ᆊ催ᡔᴃѻϮ෎ഄāǃĀ䍙⹀ᴤ᭭೑ᆊ催ᡔᴃѻϮ෎ഄāˈ೼ᑓϰṙᎲᏖǃঢ়ᵫঢ়ᵫᏖǃ
䖑ᅕ䖑䰇Ꮦǃ៤䛑ߚ߿䆒ゟĀ⿔ೳѻϮುāǃĀ೑ᆊ⺇㑸㓈催ᡔᴃѻϮ࣪෎ഄāǃĀ೑ᆊ㢇⚗ঞ㊒㒚࣪Ꮉ催
ᡔᴃѻϮ࣪෎ഄāǃĀ೑ᆊ催ᗻ㛑㑸㓈催ᡔᴃѻϮ࣪෎ഄāㄝDŽ

乘䅵 2010 ᑈᑩܼ⧗ᮄᴤ᭭Ꮦഎ㾘῵ᇚ䍙䖛 8000 ғ㕢‫ܗ‬DŽ៥೑ⱘᮄᴤ᭭ѻϮথሩ䍋ℹ䕗ᰮˈ2010 ᑈᮄ

ᴤ᭭Ꮦഎ㾘῵໻㑺೼ 823.7 ғ‫ˈܗ‬乘䅵 2012 ᑈ䍙䖛 1300 ғ‫ˈܗ‬ᑈഛ๲䗳ֱᣕ೼ 20%ҹϞDŽ

˄7˅⫳⠽ѻϮ

ḍ᥂lj݇Ѣࡴᖿ෍㚆੠থሩ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮⱘ‫އ‬ᅮNJˈ
ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈៥೑⫳⠽ѻϮথሩ䞡⚍䲚Ё೼⫳⠽ए
㥃ǃ⫳⠽‫ݰ‬Ϯǃ⫳⠽ࠊ䗴ǃ⫳⠽㛑⑤ǃ⫳⠽⦃ֱㄝ乚ඳDŽ⬅Ѣ⫳⠽ᡔᴃѻϮথሩ‫݋‬᳝Ԣ⺇ᗻˈ᳾ᴹ⫳⠽ᡔᴃѻ
Ϯথሩᇍᬍব⍜㗫㞾✊䌘⑤ⱘӴ㒳থሩ῵ᓣǃᵘᓎ㓓㡆ৃ‫⫳ݡ‬ѻϮԧ㋏ˈ֗䖯Ҏ㉏‫ع‬ᒋᇚѻ⫳䴽ੑᗻᕅડDŽ

ᣝ✻ljĀकϔѨā⫳⠽ѻϮথሩ㾘ߦNJЁϝℹ䍄៬⬹ˈ2010 ᑈᎺেᔶ៤ 5000-8000 ғ‫ܗ‬㾘῵ⱘ⫳⠽ѻϮ˗

2015 ᑈᎺে⫳⠽ѻϮѻؐ䖒ࠄ 1.5 ϛғ‫݊ˈܗ‬Ё⫳⠽ѻϮѻؐ䖒ࠄ 8000 ғ‫˗ܗ‬2020 ᑈᎺে䖒ࠄ 2.5-3 ϛғ
‫ˈܗ‬ᔶ៤೑⇥㒣⌢ᬃ᷅ѻϮПϔDŽҢⳂࠡ៥೑ᅲ䰙๲䭓ⳟˈ2003 ᑈ៥೑⫳⠽ѻϮ㾘῵ 3500 ғ‫ˈܗ‬2009 ᑈѻ
ؐ㾘῵䖒ࠄ 10048 ғ‫ˈܗ‬さ⸈Ꮖ᳝ⱘ㾘ߦⳂᷛDŽফᬓㄪᡊỡˈ乘䅵ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈⫳⠽ѻϮ䖯ܹᖿ䗳থሩ䔼
䘧ˈ2015 ᑈ⫳ѻ㾘῵ৃ㛑䍙䖛㾘ߦ乘ᳳDŽҢ៥Ӏᬊ䲚ࠄⱘֵᙃⳟˈ ĀकѠѨā㾘ߦৃ㛑Ӯᇚ 2015 ᑈ๲䭓Ⳃ
ᷛϞ䇗㟇 3 ϛғ‫ˈܗ‬᳾ᴹ 5 ᑈᑈഛ໡ড়๲䭓⥛䖒ࠄ 20%Ꮊেˈ䖭ৠĀकϔѨāᳳ䯈៥೑ए㥃ѻϮ๲䗳᥹䖥DŽ
Ԛ᳝݇ϧᆊ䅸Ўˈ2015 ᑈ⫳⠽ए㥃ѻؐ䖒ࠄ 3 ғ‫ܗ‬㾘ߦⳂᷛⳌᇍ↨䕗ֱᅜˈϧᆊ乘⌟ए㥃ѻϮ೼ĀकѠѨā
ᳳ䯈ᇚᅲ⦄㑺 24%ⱘᑈഛ๲䗳ˈࠄ 2015 ᑈᇚᅲ⦄ᘏѻؐ᥹䖥 4 ϛғ‫ܗ‬DŽ

乘䅵ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈೑ᆊᇚᡩ䌘䍙䖛 100 ғ‫ܗ‬ᬃᣕ䞡໻ᮄ㥃߯ࠊˈᡩ䌘㾘῵ᰃĀकϔѨā䞡໻ᮄ㥃߯ࠊ

⾥ᡔϧ乍ⱘᡩܹ˄66 ғ‫ ⱘ˅ܗ‬1.5 ‫ס‬DŽ䖭ѯ䌘䞥ᇚ䞡⚍⫼Ѣ෎಴㥃⠽ǃ㲟ⱑ㥃⠽ǃऩᡫ‫ܟ‬䱚㥃⠽ǃ⊏⭫ᗻ⭿
㢫ǃᇣߚᄤ࣪ᄺ㥃⠽ㄝ䞡⚍乚ඳDŽৠᯊˈ ĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈೑ᆊ䖬Ӯࡴᔎए㥃ᷛ‫ࠊޚ‬ᅮ੠ㅵ⧚ˈᦤछ෎ᴀ㥃⠽
੠催亢䰽㥃⠽ⱘ䋼䞣ᷛ‫ޚ‬DŽ

㸼 21˖⫳⠽ѻϮ哧ࢅ㉏㒚ߚ㸠Ϯ៪乚ඳ
ᄤ㸠Ϯ 乚ඳ៪ᮍ৥
⫳⠽ᡔᴃ㥃⠽ǃᮄൟ⭿㢫੠䆞ᮁ䆩ࠖǃ࣪ᄺ㥃⠽ǃ⦄ҷЁ㥃ㄝ߯ᮄ㥃⠽˗‫ܜ‬䖯ए⭫䆒໛ǃए⫼ᴤ᭭ㄝ⫳⠽एᄺᎹ⿟ѻક
⫳⠽ए㥃
ⱘⷨথ੠ѻϮ࣪˗෎಴㥃⠽ǃ㲟ⱑ㥃⠽ǃऩᡫ‫ܟ‬䱚㥃⠽ǃ⊏⭫ᗻ⭿㢫ǃᇣߚᄤ࣪ᄺ⠽ㄝ
⫳⠽‫ݰ‬Ϯ ⫳⠽㚆⾡ǃᵫϮᮄક⾡ǃ㓓㡆‫⫳⫼ݰ‬⠽ѻકǃ⍋⋟⫳⠽䌘⑤ᓔথ
⫳⠽ࠊ䗴 ⫳⠽ࠊ䗴݇䬂ᡔᴃⷨথǃ⼎㣗੠ᑨ⫼˗⫳⠽෎ᴤ᭭Ḍᖗᡔᴃⷨথǃ⫳⠽ᴤ᭭ǃᖂ⫳⠽ࠊ䗴
⍋⋟⫳⠽ ⍋⋟⫳⠽ࠊ䗴ǃ⍋⋟⫳⠽㚆⾡
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

60 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈЁ೑㒣⌢ሩᳯ

˄8˅⍋⋟ѻϮ

ⳂࠡˈϪ⬠⍋⋟ѻϮᘏѻߎ೼ 1 ϛғ⃻‫ܗ‬Ꮊেˈऴܼ⧗⫳ѻᘏؐⱘ 3.5%DŽ݊Ёˈҹ⍋⋟ᮙ␌ǃ⊍⇨ᓔ

䞛ǃ䆒໛ࠊ䗴ǃ⍋∈‫ݏ‬ⅪㄝЎҷ㸼ⱘ⍋⋟ᮄѻϮᘏѻߎऴ↨᥹䖥 50%ˈ㗠ҹ⍋⋟ৃ‫⫳ݡ‬㛑⑤ǃ⍋⋟⫳⠽ǃ⍋
⋟Ꮉ⿟ⷓѻㄝЎҷ㸼ⱘ⍋⋟ᮄ݈ѻϮ↨䞡ϡࠄ 20%ˈਜ⦄ߎᎼ໻ⱘ๲䭓ぎ䯈DŽৠḋˈ៥೑԰ЎϪ⬠Ϟ⍋ኌ㒓
᳔䭓ⱘ೑ᆊПϔˈᬍ䴽ᓔথҹᴹ⍋⋟㒣⌢гਜ⦄ߎᖿ䗳থሩᗕ࢓ˈᔶ៤ҹ⦃⏸⍋ǃ䭓ϝ㾦੠⦴ϝ㾦ഄऎ੠⊓
⍋ഄऎЎҷ㸼ⱘĀ3+Nā⍋⋟㒣⌢䲚㘮ऎඳDŽ2001-2009 ᑈЁ೑⍋⋟⫳ѻᘏؐᑈഛ๲䭓 20%ˈ䖰催ߎৠᳳ GDP
๲䗳DŽ݊Ёˈ៥೑⍋⋟乚ඳ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮऴ⍋⋟⫳ѻᘏѻؐ↨䞡ϡ䎇 6%DŽ

೒ 146˖2009 ᑈ⍋⋟ѻϮѻؐऴ GDP ↨䞡䍙䖛 9.55% ೒ 147˖⍋⋟乚ඳ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ

⍋⋟㄀ϝѻϮ
˄ғ‫˅ܗ‬ ⍋⋟㄀ѠѻϮ ˄%˅
45000 ⍋⋟㄀ϔѻϮ 12 ⍋⋟⫳⠽ए㥃 ⍋⋟ৃ‫⫳ݡ‬㛑⑤
40000 ⍋⋟⫳⠽ᘏؐऴ೑‫⫳ݙ‬ѻᘏؐ↨䞡
35000 9.60 10
30000 9.37 9.64 10.03 9.74 8.53
9.17 8 ⍋⋟Ꮉ⿟
25000 8.68 8.80 ⍋⋟乚ඳ
⍋⋟ֵᙃ࣪
20000 ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ
6
15000
10000 ⍋⋟ࢬ᥶
4
5000 ⍋⋟᳡ࡵϮ
0 2 ⍋⋟ि᯳䘹ᛳ
2001ᑈ

2002ᑈ

2003ᑈ

2004ᑈ

2005ᑈ

2006ᑈ

2007ᑈ

2008ᑈ

2009ᑈ

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ⍋⋟ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ⍋⋟ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

থሩ⍋⋟㒣⌢ᰃ៥೑ৃᣕ㓁থሩⱘ៬⬹䗝ᢽˈᅗ᳝ࡽѢ㾷‫އ‬ᔧࠡ៥೑䌘⑤㋻㔎ⱘさߎ⶯ⳒDŽ2003 ᑈ៥
೑ࠊᅮњ֗䖯⍋⋟㒣⌢থሩⱘ㄀ϔϾ‫݋‬᳝ᅣ㾖ᣛᇐᗻⱘ᭛ӊljܼ೑⍋⋟㒣⌢থሩ㾘ߦ㒆㽕˄2003˅NJˈĀकѠ
Ѩā㾘ߦᇚ⍋⋟ѻϮ㾘ߦ佪⃵㒇ܹ៥೑⦄ҷѻϮথሩԧ㋏DŽ᥂ᙝˈᬓᑰᇚࠊᅮljĀकѠѨā⍋⋟㒣⌢੠⍋⋟
џϮথሩ㾘ߦNJǃ
ljĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈⍋⋟Ꮉ⿟㺙໛থሩ㾘ߦNJ˗㓪ࠊ⍋⋟ѻϮথሩᣛᇐⳂᔩ˗ࠊᅮᬃᣕ⍋⋟㒣⌢
থሩⱘ䋶ᬓǃ⿢ᬊǃᡩ㵡䌘ǃ⫼⍋ㄝ᳝݇ᬓㄪҹঞᡊᣕ៬⬹ᗻ⍋⋟ᮄ݈ѻϮⱘᬓㄪ˗ࠊᅮ⍋⋟ѻϮᏗሔ੠ऎ
ඳথሩᬓㄪ˗᥼䖯lj⍋⋟෎ᴀ⊩NJⱘࠊᅮ੠lj⍋ඳ⊩NJǃlj⍋ቯ⊩NJǃlj⍋⋟⦃๗ֱᡸ⊩NJⱘᅲᮑDŽ

ḍ᥂ljܼ೑⍋⋟㒣⌢থሩ㾘ߦ㒆乚˄2003˅NJ
ˈ2005 ᑈ⍋⋟ѻϮ๲ࡴؐऴ೑‫⫳ݙ‬ѻᘏؐⱘ↨䞡䖒ࠄ 4%˗
2010 ᑈ䖒ࠄ 5%ҹϞˈ䗤ℹ៤Ў೑⇥㒣⌢ⱘᬃ᷅ѻϮDŽҢᅲ䰙๲䭓ⳟˈ2009 ᑈ៥೑⍋⋟ѻϮ๲ࡴؐऴ GDP
↨䞡Ꮖ㒣䖒ࠄ 5.5%ˈᅲ⦄ĀकϔѨā㾘ߦⳂᷛDŽĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈ˈ೼മᣕ䰚⍋㒳ㅍॳ߭ϟˈফⲞѢѻϮϧ
乍㾘ߦ੠⫳⠽ǃ⷇࣪ǃ㠍㠊ㄝⳌ݇ѻϮ㾘ߦⱘ᥼ࡼϟˈ⍋⋟ѻϮؐᕫ݇⊼ˈᅗᇚ៤ЎЁ೑㒣⌢ᮄⱘ๲䭓⚍DŽ

೒ 148˖Џ㽕⍋⋟ѻϮথሩᚙ‫މ‬ ˄%˅ 㸼 22˖⍋⋟ѻϮথሩ㾘ߦ

㸠Ϯথሩᗱ䏃
19.3% ⍋⋟⏨Ϯ ࡴᖿথሩ ⍋⋟⊍⇨ǃ⍋ϞѸ䗮䖤䕧ǃⒼ⍋ᮙ␌ㄝ
28.7% ⴔ࡯ᦤछথሩ∈ᑇ ⍋⋟⏨Ϯǃ⍋⋟‫ݏ‬Ⅺǃ⍋⋟࣪Ꮉㄝ
⍋⋟⊍⇨Ϯ
⍋⋟ⷓϮ ⍋⋟⫳⠽ए㥃ǃ⍋∈߽⫼ǃ⍋⋟ৃ‫⫳ݡ‬䌘⑤ǃ
᥼ࡼ᳝ᑣথሩ
⍋⋟ⲤϮ ⍋⋟Ꮉ⿟ㄝ
5.8% ⍋⋟⫳⠽ǃ⍋∈߽⫼ǃ⍋⋟㛑⑤੠⏅⍋䌘⑤ᓔ
⍋⋟࣪ᎹϮ
0.2% ⿃ᵕ෍㚆 থǃ⍋⋟ᮄᴤ᭭ǃ催ッ㠍㠊ঞ⍋⋟Ꮉ⿟㺙໛ǃ
⍋⋟⫳⠽ए㥃Ϯ
0.4% ⍋⋟⬉࡯Ϯ ⍋⋟⦄ҷ᳡ࡵㄝ⍋⋟乚ඳ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ
4.7%
0.4% ⍋⋟߽⫼Ϯ ࡴᔎ ⏨␃ㄝ␃ষᓎ䆒
6.4% ⍋⋟㠍㠊ᎹϮ ᧲ད⍋⋟෎⸔䆒ᮑ
⍋ᑩ䱻䘧ǃ䎼⍋ḹṕǃ⍋ᑩ‫ܝ‬㓚ǃկ∈㺙㕂ㄝ
0.1% 0.1% ⍋⋟Ꮉ⿟ᓎㄥϮ ᓎ䆒
28.8% 5.1% ⿃ᵕ᥼䖯 ⍋⋟⦃๗ֱᡸǃ⍋⋟䌘⑤㓐ড়߽⫼ᓔথ
⍋⋟Ѹ䗮䖤䕧Ϯ
⍋⋟ᮙ␌Ϯ ໻࡯থሩ⍋⋟ࠡ⊓ ⏅⍋ࢬ᥶ǃ෎಴Ꮉ⿟ǃि᯳䘹ᛳ੠⍋⋟ৃ‫⫳ݡ‬
ᡔᴃ 㛑⑤߽⫼˗⍋⋟ֵᙃ࣪

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ⍋⋟ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ⍋⋟ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 15 ᮹ 61
‫ܡ‬䋷ໄᯢ
ℸ᡹ਞᑊ䴲䩜ᇍ៪ᛣ೒䗕থ㒭៪Ўӏԩህ䗕থǃথᏗǃৃᕫࠄ៪Փ⫼ℸ᡹ਞ㗠ՓЁֵ䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌঞ݊䰘ሲᴎ
ᵘ˄ҹϟ㒳⿄ĀЁֵ䆕ࠌā
˅䖱ডᔧഄⱘ⊩ᕟ៪⊩㾘៪ৃ㟈ՓЁֵ䆕ࠌফࠊѢⳌ݇⊩ᕟ៪⊩㾘ⱘӏԩഄऎǃ೑ᆊ៪݊ᅗㅵ
䕪ऎඳⱘ݀⇥៪ሙ⇥DŽ䰸䴲঺᳝㾘ᅮˈᴀ᡹ਞЁⱘ᠔᳝ᴤ᭭⠜ᴗഛሲЁֵ䆕ࠌDŽ᳾㒣Ёֵ䆕ࠌџ‫ܜ‬к䴶ᥜᴗˈϡᕫҹӏ
ԩᮍᓣׂᬍǃথ䗕៪㗙໡ࠊᴀ᡹ਞঞ݊᠔ࣙ৿ⱘᴤ᭭ǃ‫ݙ‬ᆍDŽ᠔᳝Ѣℸ᡹ਞЁՓ⫼ⱘଚᷛǃ᳡ࡵᷛ䆚ঞᷛ䆄ഛЎЁֵ䆕
ࠌⱘଚᷛǃ᳡ࡵᷛ䆚ঞᷛ䆄DŽ

ᴀ᡹ਞᰃᴎᆚⱘˈা᳝ᬊӊҎᠡ㛑Փ⫼DŽᴀ᡹ਞ᠔䕑ⱘֵᙃǃᴤ᭭៪ߚᵤᎹ‫݋‬াᦤկ㒭䯕ϟ԰খ㗗П⫼ˈϡᰃ៪ϡ
ᑨ㹿㾚Ўߎଂǃ䌁ф៪䅸䌁䆕ࠌ៪݊ᅗ䞥㵡Ꮉ‫ⱘ݋‬㽕㑺៪㽕㑺䙔䇋DŽЁֵ䆕ࠌгϡ಴ᬊӊҎᬊࠄᴀ᡹ਞ㗠㾚݊ЎЁֵ䆕
ࠌⱘᅶ᠋DŽ

ᴀ᡹ਞ᠔䕑䌘᭭ⱘᴹ⑤ঞ㾖⚍ⱘߎ໘ⱚ㹿Ёֵ䆕ࠌ䅸Ўৃ䴴ˈԚЁֵ䆕ࠌϡֱ䆕݊‫⹂ޚ‬ᗻ៪ᅠᭈᗻDŽ䰸⊩ᕟ៪㾘߭
㾘ᅮᖙ乏ᡓᢙⱘ䋷ӏ໪ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌϡᇍ಴Փ⫼ℸ᡹ਞⱘᴤ᭭㗠ᓩ㟈ⱘᤳ༅䋳ӏԩ䋷ӏDŽᬊӊҎϡᑨऩ㒃ձ䴴ℸ᡹ਞ㗠প
ҷϾҎⱘ⣀ゟ߸ᮁDŽᴀ᡹ਞ᠔ᣛⱘ䆕ࠌ៪䞥㵡Ꮉ‫ⱘ݋‬ӋḐǃӋؐঞᬊܹৃ䎠ৃछDŽҹᕔⱘ㸼⦄ϡᑨ԰Ў᮹ৢ㸼⦄ⱘᰒ⼎
ঞᢙֱDŽᴀ᡹ਞ᠔䕑ⱘ䌘᭭ǃᛣ㾕ঞ᥼⌟ড᯴Ёֵ䆕ࠌѢ᳔߱থᏗℸ᡹ਞ᮹ᳳᔧ᮹ⱘ߸ᮁˈৃ೼ϡথߎ䗮ⶹⱘᚙᔶϟ‫خ‬
ߎ᳈ᬍˈѺৃ಴Փ⫼ϡৠ‫؛‬䆒੠ᷛ‫ޚ‬ǃ䞛⫼ϡৠ㾖⚍੠ߚᵤᮍ⊩㗠ϢЁֵ䆕ࠌ݊ᅗϮࡵ䚼䮼៪ऩԡ᠔㒭ߎⱘᛣ㾕ϡৠ៪
㗙ⳌডDŽᴀ᡹ਞϡᵘ៤⾕Ҏ੼䆶ᓎ䆂ˈг≵᳝㗗㰥ࠄϾ߿ᅶ᠋⡍⅞ⱘᡩ䌘Ⳃᷛǃ䋶ࡵ⢊‫៪މ‬䳔㽕DŽᬊӊҎᑨ㗗㰥ᴀ᡹ਞ
Ёⱘӏԩᛣ㾕៪ᓎ䆂ᰃ৺ヺড়݊⡍ᅮ⢊‫މ‬DŽ

೼⊩ᕟ䆌ৃⱘᚙ‫މ‬ϟˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⱘϔԡ៪໮ԡ㨷џǃ催㑻㘠ਬ੠/៪ਬᎹ(ࣙᣀখϢ‫ޚ‬໛៪থ㸠ℸ᡹ਞⱘҎ)ৃ㛑(1)Ϣ
ℸ᡹ਞ᠔ᦤࠄⱘӏԩ݀ৌᓎゟ៪ֱᣕ乒䯂ǃᡩ䌘䫊㸠៪䆕ࠌ᳡ࡵ݇㋏ˈ(2)Ꮖ㒣৥ℸ᡹ਞ᠔ᦤࠄⱘ݀ৌᦤկњ໻䞣ⱘᓎ䆂
៪ᡩ䌘᳡ࡵDŽ೼⊩ᕟ䆌ৃⱘᚙ‫މ‬ϟˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⱘϔԡ៪໮ԡ㨷џǃ催㑻㘠ਬ੠/៪ਬᎹৃ㛑ᢙӏℸ᡹ਞ᠔ᦤࠄⱘ݀ৌⱘ㨷
џDŽ೼⊩ᕟ䆌ৃⱘᚙ‫މ‬ϟˈЁֵ䆕ࠌৃ㛑খϢ៪ᡩ䌘ℸ᡹ਞ᠔ᦤࠄⱘ݀ৌⱘ䞥㵡Ѹᯧˈ৥᳝݇݀ৌᦤկ៪㦋প᳡ࡵˈঞ/
៪ᣕ᳝݊䆕ࠌ៪ᳳᴗ៪䖯㸠䆕ࠌ៪ᳳᴗѸᯧDŽ

㢹Ёֵ䆕ࠌҹ໪ⱘ䞥㵡ᴎᵘথ䗕ᴀ᡹ਞˈ߭⬅䆹䞥㵡ᴎᵘ⣀㞾Ўℸথ䗕㸠Ў䋳䋷DŽ䆹ᴎᵘᅶ᠋ᑨ㘨㋏䆹ᴎᵘҹѸᯧ
ᴀ᡹ਞЁᦤঞⱘ䆕ࠌ៪㽕∖㦋ᙝ᳈䆺㒚ֵᙃDŽᴀ᡹ਞϡᵘ៤Ёֵ䆕ࠌ৥থ䗕ᴀ᡹ਞ䞥㵡ᴎᵘПᅶ᠋ᦤկⱘᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂ˈЁ
ֵ䆕ࠌⱘ㨷џǃ催㑻㘠ਬ੠ਬᎹѺϡЎࠡ䗄䞥㵡ᴎᵘПᅶ᠋಴Փ⫼ᴀ᡹ਞ៪᡹ਞ䕑ᯢⱘ‫ݙ‬ᆍᓩ䍋ⱘⳈ᥹៪䖲ᏺᤳ༅ᡓᢙ
ӏԩ䋷ӏDŽ

Ёֵ䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌঞ݊䰘ሲঞ㘨㧹݀ৌ 2010 ⠜ᴗ᠔᳝DŽֱ⬭ϔߛᴗ߽DŽ

䆘㑻䇈ᯢ

1. ᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂ⱘ↨䕗ᷛ‫ޚ‬  䆘㑻 䇈ᯢ
ᡩ䌘䆘㑻ߚЎ㙵⼼䆘㑻੠㸠Ϯ䆘㑻DŽ фܹ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300 ᣛ᭄⍼ᐙ 20%ҹϞ˗
ҹ᡹ਞথᏗৢⱘ 6 Ͼ᳜‫ⱘݙ‬Ꮦഎ㸼⦄Ў↨䕗ᷛ‫ˈޚ‬ ๲ᣕ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300 ᣛ᭄⍼ᐙҟѢ 5%̚20%П䯈˗
᡹ਞথᏗ᮹ৢⱘ 6 Ͼ᳜‫݀ⱘݙ‬ৌ㙵Ӌ˄៪㸠Ϯᣛ᭄˅ 㙵⼼ᡩ䌘䆘㑻
ᣕ᳝ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300 ᣛ᭄⍼ᐙҟѢ-10%̚5%П䯈˗
ⱘ⍼䎠ᐙⳌᇍৠᳳⱘЁֵᷛ᱂ 300 ᣛ᭄ⱘ⍼䎠ᐙЎ
෎‫˗ޚ‬ पߎ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300 ᣛ᭄䎠ᐙ 10%ҹϞ˗

2. ᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂ⱘ䆘㑻ᷛ‫ޚ‬ ᔎѢ໻Ꮦ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300 ᣛ᭄⍼ᐙ 10%ҹϞ˗

᡹ਞথᏗ᮹ৢⱘ 6 Ͼ᳜‫݀ⱘݙ‬ৌ㙵Ӌ˄៪㸠Ϯᣛ᭄˅ 㸠Ϯᡩ䌘䆘㑻 Ёᗻ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300 ᣛ᭄⍼ᐙҟѢ-10%̚10%П䯈˗

ⱘ⍼䎠ᐙⳌᇍৠᳳⱘЁֵᷛ᱂ 300 ᣛ᭄ⱘ⍼䎠ᐙ˖ ᔅѢ໻Ꮦ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300 ᣛ᭄䎠ᐙ 10%ҹϞ˗

 ࣫Ҁ Ϟ⍋ ⏅ഇ Ёֵ䆕ࠌ೑䰙᳝䰤݀ৌ

Ё೑࣫ҀᏖᳱ䰇ऎᮄ⑤फ䏃 Ϟ⍋⌺ϰᮄऎϪ㑾໻䘧 1568 ⏅ഇᏖ⏅फ໻䘧 7088 ো᢯ 佭␃Ё⦃⏏㕢䘧 1 োЁ

ഄഔ:
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