Statistical Hydrology

March-23-11
3:38 PM
Instead of exceedance probabilities, we usually refer to the
recurrence interval of floods/storms - more intuitive

Recurrence interval:
○ The average interval of time between events as rare or rarer
than the given event
 For floods, recurrence interval is the average interval of
time between floods equalling or exceeding 'q', where 'q'
is the discharge value under consideration

For annual floods, the recurrence interval is the inverse of the

exceedence probability

Note: 100 year floods do not occur every 100 years

The average interval between annual floods equalling or exceeding

the 100 year flood is 100 years

Actual interval is highly variable

○ 5% of time interval > 300 years
○ 5% of time interval < 5 years

Analytical techniques
○ Curve-fit the cumulative frequency distribution of the data
using statistical methods
 Similar to the empirical method, but fancier

Statistical distribution
○ Several statistical distributions can be used to fit the data
 Normal - used in lab/annual precipitation follows this
 Log-normal - daily stream discharge
 Quasi-exponential - daily precipitation
 Gumbel - peak annual floods
 Log-Pearson Type III - flood frequency analysis

Highest flow od the year is the annual flood which often follows
Gumbel/extreme value distribution
○ f(x) = exp{exp(-alpha[n-beta])}

In designing a culvert for a highway, you are willing to risk flooding on

average once every 20 years.
How do you figure out the necessary size of the culvert?
○ Need to determine the 2- year flood event
○ What data do you need?
○ What do you do with these data

FINAL EXAM
○ 2 hours long
○ April 13th IWC
○ 8 short answer questions (may/may not include calculations)
○ Final thinking question: worth 20

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