Germantown Demographic Trends

Germantown
Demographic
Germantown
Trends
Montgomery County, MD
Research & Technology Center

Montgomery County Planning Department, M-NCPPC
Planning Areas
Montgomery County, MD.
,.-
270
g%
97
Germantown
/(29
Major Roads
Germantown PA ,.-
495
Planning Areas

Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
Montgomery County’s Population Size
Ranks in Top 2% of All Counties in 2005
Rank County Population % Change*
1 Los Angeles County, CA 9,935,475 4.4%
2 Cook County, IL 5,303,683 -1.4%
3 Harris County, TX 3,693,050 8.6%
>
36 Contra Costa County, CA 1,017,787 7.3%
37 Fairfax County, VA 1,006,529 3.8%
38 St. Louis County, MO 1,004,666 -1.1%
>
43 Pinellas County, FL 928,032 0.7%
44 Montgomery County, MD 927,583 6.1%
45 Pima County, AZ 924,786 9.6%
>
56 New Haven County, CT 846,766 2.8%
57 Prince George's County, MD 846,123 5.7%
58 Macomb County, MI 829,453 5.2%
>
65 Baltimore County, MD 786,113 4.2%
* Percent change from April 2000 to July 2005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, July 2005 County Population Estimates
Where the Greater Washington Area
Population Lives in 2005
Fairfax* 21%
Calvert 2%
Montgomery 19% Stafford 2%
Alexandria 3%
Charles 3%
Arlington 4%
Frederick 4%
Prince George’s 17% Loudoun 5%
Prince William* 8%
District of Columbia 11% * Includes independent cities
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, July 2005 County Population Estimates

Five Most Populous Planning Areas in 2005
Total Household Population
140,000 130,500
120,000
100,000 92,600
79,580 78,065
80,000
62,865
60,000
40,000
20,000
14.0% 9.9% 8.5% 8.4% 6.8%
0
Gaithersburg Bethesda/ Germantown Kensington/ Aspen Hill
& Vicinity Chevy Chase Wheaton
2005 Montgomery County Household Population: 931,000
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
Annual Population Gains in this Decade
Approach High Numbers Last Seen in 1980s
Total County Population
873,341 942,000
757,027
Gained 68,659
579,053 Up 7.9%
Gained 116,314
Up 15.4%
Gained 177,974
Up 30.7%
18,000/year 12,000/year 13,000/year Annual growth Rate
1980 1990 2000 2005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census; COG Round 7.0 Forecast
High Percentage Growth in 1980s,
Annual Growth Higher Now than in the 90s
Gained 21,695
79,580
Up 37%
Gained 25,840
57,885
Up 81%
Gained 21,645
32,046
Up 208%
10,400
3,090/year 2,585/year 2,712 year Annual growth rate
1980 1987 1997 2005

Germantown Household Population
By 2015, Jobs Are Expected to
Exceed Housing in Germantown
100,000
90,000 population
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000 jobs
40,000
30,000
households
20,000
10,000
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Germantown Round 7.0 Cooperative Forecast

County’s Population Is Growing
and Becoming More Diverse
Annual Growth Rate Minority Share of
24,000 Population Growth
140%
121%
18,000 17,585 120% 112%
100%
13,080
12,000 11,630 80%
60% 52%
6,000 5,680 40%
20%
0 0%
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2005
Minority population gained 59,923 compared to 53,418 increase
in total population between 2000 and 2005.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Adjusted Race Population Estimates (8/06)
Germantown’s Growing
Minority Population Since 1987
45%
NonHisp White 52%
86%
20%
NH Black or African Am. 17%
6%
18%
NH Asian & Pacific Isl. 14%
4% 2005
2% 1997
NH Other Race 2% 1987
0%
15%
Hispanic 15%
4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Percent of population
Greater Diversity Found in Germantown
Compared to the County in 2005
56%
NonHisp White
45%
16%
NH Black or African Am.
20%
13%
NH Asian & Pacific Isl.
18%
County
2%
NH Other Race Germantown
2%
14%
Hispanic
15%
0% 20% 40% 60%

Percent of population

County’s Foreign Born Percentage
Surpasses the State, Region, and Nation
Foreign born percent of population
35% 1980
29% 1990
30% 27% 2000
25% 2005
21%
19%
20%
16%
15% 12% 12% 12% 12%
11%
10% 9%
10% 7% 8%
5% 6%
5%
0%
Montgomery Maryland Washington United States
County Region
Source: U.S. Census, 2005 American Community Survey
3 Out of 10 Residents
Are Foreign Born in Germantown
Foreign Born % of Population
40%
34%
35% 32% 33%
30%
30% 27%
25%
20%
15%
9% 9%
10%
5%
0%
Takoma Fairland Rockville German- County Damascus Poolesville
Park town

Planning Areas
Family Types in Germantown
Similar to the County
Percent of Households by Type
70%
61% 62% Germantown
60%
County
50%
40%
30%
22% 24%
20%
12% 10%
10%
2% 2%
0%
Married- Single Parent Living Alone Other
Couple Nonfamily
Younger Population
Characterizes Germantown
Percent of Population
35% 33% 32%
29%
30% 26% 25%
25% 23%
20%
20% 18%
15% 11%
10% 6% 6%
4%
5%
0%
Upper Rock Darnestown German- County Aspen Hill Bethesda/
Creek town CC
Age < 18 Age 65+

Planning Areas
In 2000, Germantown’s Age Profile is
Younger than the County’s
Percent of Household Population
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0 to 4 5 to 19 20 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 64 65+
Germantown County
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
By 2020, Germantown’s Age Profile is
Becoming Similar to the County’s
Percent of Household Population
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0 to 4 5 to 19 20 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 64 65+
Germantown County
Source: Round 7.0 Cooperative Forecast
Well Educated, But Fewer Advanced
Degrees Found in Germantown
Percent of Adults Age 25 and Older
40%
Germantown County
35%
30% 30% 30% 29%

26%
22%
20%
10% 8% 9%
6% 6%
0%
Less than High School Associate/ Bachelor's Master's or
High School Diploma Trade School Degree Higher

Most Employed Germantown Residents
Live and Work in the County
Percent of Employed Residents Working in the County
80% 75% 74% 73%
70%
60%
60%
50% 42% 40%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Clarksburg Poolesville German- County Takoma Silver
town Park Spring
Planning Areas
Germantown Workers are More Likely to
Drive Alone & Less Likely to Take Transit
Percent of Employed Residents
100%
80% 75% 72%

Germantown County
60%
40%
20% 12% 16%

8% 5%
1% 3% 3% 4%
0%
Drive Alone Carpool Public Transit Other Work at Home
Commuting Mode

Potomac & Takoma Park Exhibit the
Extremes in Household Income
2004 Median Household Income
180,000
$156,245
160,000 $142,420
140,000
120,000
100,000 $83,880
$76,655
80,000
$59,925
60,000 $48,675
40,000
20,000
0
Potomac/ Travilah County Germantown Aspen Hill Takoma
Cabin John Park
Planning Areas
Germantown Has Highest Percent
of Townhouse Housing
0%
Poolesville 11%
89%
31%
% of Households
County 18% Multi-Family
51%
29% Townhouse
Germantown 45%
26%
38%
Single-Family
Fairland 33% Detached
29%
66%
Silver Spring 3%
31%

Planning Areas
Shifting Population Shares Across
Single Family Housing Types
Number & Percent of Population by Structure Type
40,000
46%
35,000
30,000 Single Family
25,000 Detached
33%
Townhouse
20,000
58% 21%
15,000 Garden Apt
10,000
22%
5,000 20%
0
1987 1994 1997 2005

Higher Average Household Size Reflects
Large Families & Fewer Single 65+
3.00 Average Household Size
2.80
2.60
2.40
County
Germantown
2.20
2.00
1987 1994 1997 2005

Less than Half of Germantown’s Households
Lived in the Same House in 2000
% of HH at Same Address in 2000

80% 75%
71%
70%
60% 58%
50% 47% 46%

40%
29%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Poolesville Potomac County Silver German- Clarksburg
Spring town
Planning Areas
Majority are Homeowners
in Germantown
% of Households
96% 97%
100%
80%
80% 74%
61%
60% 55%
45%
39%
40%
26%
20%
20%
4% 3%
0%
Silver Takoma County German- Olney Darnestown
Spring Park town
Owner Renter
Planning Areas
Germantown’s Average Homeowner Cost
Below the County’s Average
Average Monthly Homeowner Costs
3,000
$2,599 $2,509
2,500
2,000
$1,687
$1,507
1,500 $1,342 $1,276
1,000
500
0
Travilah Potomac County Germantown Kemp Mill Aspen Hill
Planning Areas
Bethesda/Chevy Chase & Takoma Park
Show the Extremes in Rental Costs
Average Monthly Renter Costs
1,800
$1,606 $1,553
1,600
1,400
$1,167
1,200 $1,034
1,000 $914
$800
800
600
400
200
0
Bethesda- Clarksburg County Germantown Kemp Mill Takoma
Chevy Chase Park
Selected Planning Areas with > 5% rental housing
Percent of Households Where Monthly
Housing Costs Exceed 30% HH Income
2004 Average Housing Cost
Own: $1,507
Percent of Households
Rent: $1,034
45% 41%
39%
40%
35%
30%
25%
19%
20% 17%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Owner Occupied Renter Occupied
Germantown County
Germantown
Development
Germantown
Trends
Montgomery County, MD

Montgomery County Planning Department, M-NCPPC
Leased Office Space
i Germantown has about 2.7 million square feet of
rentable office space in 46 buildings.
i Currently Germantown’s office vacancy rate is
17% compared to a 8% vacancy rate countywide.
i Germantown’s office vacancy rate peaked at
almost 28% in late 2003.
i Since the first quarter of 2005, Germantown’s
office vacancy rate has been between 12% and
19%.
Source: CoStar Group

Office Space Under Construction
i 58,000 square feet at 19785 Crystal Rock Dr
– Delivering August 2007
– 100% leased, but 15,500 sq. ft. available for
sale
i 218,000 square feet on Century Blvd.
– Delivering June 2008
– 100% leased

Flex Space
i Germantown has about 591,000 square feet of flex
space, about 14% of the County’s inventory.
i The vacancy rate in Germantown is 15% compared
to 13% countywide.
i All of Germantown’s vacant space is in 1 building
that was delivered in 2006.
i A 15,000 sq. ft. building is under construction to
be delivered in March 2007.

Germantown is in Housing 2nd
Production 2000-2005
Housing Units Built 2000-2005
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
ty n ity sd
a rg an
d
sd
a
la
h
Ci ow C e u l e i
e nt rg th ks
b ir th av
v ill m
a u Be r F a
Be T r
k r b la
oc e e rs C th
R G th or
ai N
G
Source: MD Dept. of Assessments and Taxation
Germantown’s Housing Production Has
Slowed in the Past 3 Years
Housing Units Built
1,400
30% 22%
1,200
23% Percent of the County’s units
1,000
built in Germantown
800
600
8% 12%
400
200 4%
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Germantown is in Commercial 2nd
Construction 2000-2005
Gross Floor Area in Sq. Ft.
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
ity
ity
n
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ty
da
in
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w
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ill
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kv
la
sb
g
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lv
C
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oc
Si
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R
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Source: MD Dept. of Assessments and Taxation

Germantown’s Pipeline of
Approved Development
i There are 1,360 units in Germantown’s
housing pipeline, 56% are multi-family
units.
i There are 4.1 million sq. ft. of non-
residential gross floor area in Germantown’s
commercial pipeline.

Existing (2005) + 2030 Forecast
57% of Employment Capacity
93% of Housing Capacity
Existing 2030 Forecast Master Plan Capacity
90,000
80,000 78,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000 36,783
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Employment Housing
COG Round 7.0 Forecast


Germantown Demographic Trends

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* Percent change from April 2000 to July 2005

Prince George’s 17% Loudoun 5%

District of Columbia 11% * Includes independent cities

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, July 2005 County Population Estimates

18,000/year 12,000/year 13,000/year Annual growth Rate

1980 1990 2000 2005

1980 1987 1997 2005

Germantown Round 7.0 Cooperative Forecast

Research & Technology Center

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Research & Technology Center

Research & Technology Center

Age < 18 Age 65+

30% 30% 30% 29%

Research & Technology Center

80% 75% 72%

20% 12% 16%

Research & Technology Center

Research & Technology Center

Research & Technology Center

Research & Technology Center

% of HH at Same Address in 2000

50% 47% 46%

Research & Technology Center

Source: CoStar Group

Source: CoStar Group

Source: CoStar Group

Research & Technology Center

Source: MD Dept. of Assessments and Taxation

Research & Technology Center

COG Round 7.0 Forecast

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