Year Quarters PIECES MA(2) MA(3) EWA Winter(W) ME MAD

2008 1 46709 46709.00 64628.69 -17919.69 17919.69

2 129643 46709.00 87840.27 41802.73 41802.73
3 22556 88176.00 98507.28 11965.67 10590.33 10590.33
4 8626 76099.50 66302.67 51070.22 4062.47 4563.53 4563.53
2009 1 41386 15591.00 53608.33 24560.74 30871.94 10514.06 10514.06
2 123090 25006.00 24189.33 35069.33 138809.47 -15719.47 15719.47
3 25330 82238.00 57700.67 90044.60 21881.66 3448.34 3448.34
4 8266 74210.00 63268.67 49625.65 7567.35 698.65 698.65
2010 1 45079 16798.00 52228.67 23793.56 34638.60 10440.40 10440.40
2 167814 26672.50 26225.00 37087.86 162288.01 5525.99 5525.99
3 33450 106446.50 73719.67 118735.78 35942.43 -2492.43 2492.43
4 9245 100632.00 82114.33 65468.65 11233.67 -1988.67 1988.67
2011 1 31909 21347.50 70169.67 30352.92 40832.75 -8923.75 8923.75
Tổng 3118.46 10356.00

Bảng so sánh các MAD và ME của pp hồi quy sử dụng gộp mô hình dự báo của Charle NealSon
 4 mo hinh ME MAD MA2+W ME MAD MA3+W

14460.09 8095.91 8095.91

5145.43 3480.57 3480.57 7333.61 1292.39 1292.39 6628.71
33943.75 7442.25 7442.25 34708.95 6677.05 6677.05 32199.04
135878.57 -12788.57 12788.57 136943.79 -13853.79 13853.79 136461.61
19803.03 5526.97 5526.97 24066.76 1263.24 1263.24 23614.31
8196.23 69.77 69.77 10722.56 -2456.56 2456.56 9888.33
37406.27 7672.73 7672.73 38248.89 6830.11 6830.11 35816.06
159881.70 7932.30 7932.30 159193.91 8620.09 8620.09 159651.76
35133.30 -1683.30 1683.30 36659.77 -3209.77 3209.77 38398.95
13869.98 -4624.98 4624.98 13371.87 -4126.87 4126.87 14632.02
47027.75 -15118.75 15118.75 43989.32 -12080.32 12080.32 42988.45
-209.10 6634.02 -268.05 6227.83

arle NealSon
 ME MAD EWA+W ME MAD SS Linear ME MAD
72486.33 -25777.33 25777.33 37271.14 9437.86 9437.86
94565.57 35077.43 35077.43 137515.92 -7872.92 7872.92
21561.73 994.27 994.27 24445.59 -1889.59 1889.59
1997.29 1997.29 14804.80 -6178.80 6178.80 6045.92 2580.08 2580.08
9186.96 9186.96 40731.53 654.47 654.47 39937.55 1448.45 1448.45
-13371.61 13371.61 143234.98 -20144.98 20144.98 140182.33 -17092.33 17092.33
1715.69 1715.69 31129.69 -5799.69 5799.69 27112.00 -1782.00 1782.00
-1622.33 1622.33 18161.86 -9895.86 9895.86 8712.33 -446.33 446.33
9262.94 9262.94 44326.74 752.26 752.26 42603.95 2475.05 2475.05
8162.24 8162.24 165535.79 2278.21 2278.21 142848.74 24965.26 24965.26
-4948.95 4948.95 44044.43 -10594.43 10594.43 29778.41 3671.59 3671.59
-5387.02 5387.02 21395.26 -12150.26 12150.26 11378.74 -2133.74 2133.74
-11079.45 11079.45 50113.53 -18204.53 18204.53 45270.36 -13361.36 13361.36
-608.42 6673.45 -5306.86 11423.27 0.00 6858.20

SS Linear=Mô hình hồi quy có tính mùa

Viết tắt SS
 5 mo hinh ME MAD SS+W ME MAD SS+w(a)
48579.33 -1870.33 1870.33 47067.06
123796.19 5846.81 5846.81 123986.59
19769.27 2786.73 2786.73 20623.66
13044.52 63054.98 63054.98 4556.93 4069.07 4069.07 5288.26
39271.76 -23680.76 23680.76 37308.11 4077.89 4077.89 37628.90
123390.21 -98384.21 98384.21 145237.79 -22147.79 22147.79 142854.71
25851.66 56386.34 56386.34 25360.16 -30.16 30.16 25776.23
19178.38 55031.62 55031.62 7672.48 593.52 593.52 8298.93
43562.94 -26764.94 26764.94 40524.74 4554.26 4554.26 40727.02
167659.44 -140986.94 140986.94 156065.20 11748.80 11748.80 152538.42
33143.65 73302.85 73302.85 32551.35 898.65 898.65 32313.53
-1122.69 101754.69 101754.69 10850.36 -1605.36 1605.36 11363.53
35337.27 -13989.77 13989.77 44678.62 -12769.62 12769.62 44636.15
4572.38 65333.71 -295.96 5615.31

uy có tính mùa SS+W = Hồi quy tính mùa và Winter SS+W(a) có trọng số Weight
 ME MAD SS+W(a=0) ME MAD
-358.06 358.06 49270.3097261 -2561 2561.31
5656.41 5656.41 123737.1935 5906 5905.807
1932.34 1932.34 20589.6643315 1966 1966.336
3337.74 3337.74 5517.43711553 3109 3108.563
3757.10 3757.10 38002.2912626 3384 3383.709
-19764.71 19764.71 145124.930215 -22035 22034.93
-446.23 446.23 26154.3413278 -824 824.3413
-32.93 32.93 8611.09404652 -345 345.094
4351.98 4351.98 41196.8434743 3882 3882.157
15275.58 15275.58 155916.996818 11897 11897
1136.47 1136.47 33316.5381155 133 133.4619
-2118.53 2118.53 11766.9743375 -2522 2521.974
-12727.15 12727.15 45327.0200571 -13418 13418.02
0.00 0.00 -879.13 5537.13

W(a) có trọng số Weight SS+W sau khi kiểm định bước 3

Hệ số a=0 có mô hình SS+w
Year Quarters PIECES SS+W(a=0) ME MAD
2008 1 46709 49270.31 -2561 2561.31
2 129643 123737.2 5906 5905.807
3 22556 20589.66 1966 1966.336
4 8626 5517.437 3109 3108.563
2009 1 41386 38002.29 3384 3383.709
2 123090 145124.9 -22035 22034.93
3 25330 26154.34 -824 824.3413
4 8266 8611.094 -345 345.094
2010 1 45079 41196.84 3882 3882.157
2 167814 155917 11897 11897
3 33450 33316.54 133 133.4619
4 9245 11766.97 -2522 2521.974
2011 1 31909 45327.02 -13418 13418.02
-879.13 5537.13