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Methodology The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll is based on live telephone interviews with a national sample of 912 registered voters, and was conducted June 5-7, 2011 in the evenings. Landline and cell phone telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state. Results based on the full sample have a margin of error of 3%. Results among subgroups have larger sampling errors, including: Democrats (n = 402) 5% Republicans (n = 333) 5.5% Independents (n = 154) 8% GOP Primary Voters (n = 338) 5.5% LV = likely voters Results from Fox News polls before February 2011 were conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corp.
1.
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? *** President Obama Job Ratings Summary ***
Approve Disapprove (Dont know)
Latest (5-7 Jun 11) High (27-28 Jan 09) Low (14-15 Dec 10) Average 5-7 Jun 11 15-17 May 11 25-27 Apr 11 3-5 Apr 11 14-16 Mar 11 7-9 Feb 11 18-19 Jan 11 14-15 Dec 10 26-28 Oct 10 RV 26-28 Oct 10 LV 11-13 Oct 10 RV 11-13 Oct 10 LV 28-29 Sep 10 14-16 Sep 10 1-2 Sep 10 10-11 Aug 10 27-28 Jul 10 13-14 Jul 10 29-30 Jun 10 8-9 Jun 10 18-19 May 10 4-5 May 10 20-21 Apr 10 6-7 Apr 10 16-17 Mar 10 23-24 Feb 10 2-3 Feb 10 12-13 Jan 10 8-9 Dec 09 17-18 Nov 09 27-28 Oct 09 13-14 Oct 09 29-30 Sep 09 15-16 Sep 09 11-12 Aug 09 21-22 Jul 09
48% 65% 40% 49% Approve 48% 55% 47% 49% 49% 51% 47% 40% 41% 40% 43% 43% 42% 42% 46% 43% 43% 43% 47% 46% 45% 48% 46% 43% 46% 47% 46% 50% 50% 46% 50% 49% 50% 54% 53% 54%
43 16 51 42 Disapprove 43 41 47 47 44 43 44 51 50 55 47 52 49 52 48 49 50 48 45 45 46 43 46 48 48 45 47 42 44 46 41 45 42 39 40 38
8 19 9 8 (Dont know) 8 4 5 5 7 6 8 9 9 5 9 5 9 6 6 8 7 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 6 8 7 8 7 8 10 6 8 8 7 8
9-10 Jun 09 12-13 May 09 22-23 Apr 09 31 Mar-1 Apr 09 3-4 Mar 09 17-18 Feb 09 27-28 Jan 09 Questions 2 15 released separately Moving on 16.
Disapprove 31 30 29 32 26 26 16
(Dont know) 8 9 8 9 11 14 19
If the 2012 presidential election were held today, would you definitely vote to re-elect Barack Obama, probably vote to re-elect Obama, probably vote for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else? Vote to - Re-elect Obama Total Def Prob 44% 28 16 42% 23 19 39% 19 20 43% 23 20 43% 26 17 52% 37 15 Vote for - Someone else Total Prob Def 49 13 36 51 15 36 54 14 40 47 11 36 48 14 34 31 8 23 (Dont (Too (Not know/ soon) vote) refused) 4 1 2 5 2 6 1 9 2 7 2 14 1 1
5-7 Jun 11 18-19 Jan 11 28-29 Sep 10 12-13 Jan 10 13-14 Oct 09 22-23 April 09
17.
If you could be guaranteed that either the economy would stay in a slump but your favorite candidate would win the next presidential election, or that the economy would turn around and grow stronger than ever but your candidate would lose, which would you choose? Favorite candidate winning the presidency The economy growing stronger than ever (Dont know) 15% 77 8
18.
In the presidential primary election or caucus in your state next year, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican primary for president, or are you unlikely to participate in either? Democratic Primary Republican Primary Neither (Other/Dont know) 41% 37 15 7
(REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY) 19. Im going to read a list of potential candidates for the 2012 Republican nomination. Please tell me which one you would like to see as the Republican presidential nominee. (RANDOMIZE LIST) 338 GOP Primary Voters Mitt Romney 23% Rudy Giuliani 13 Sarah Palin 12 Herman Cain 7 Newt Gingrich 7 Tim Pawlenty 5 Ron Paul 5 Michele Bachmann 4 Rick Santorum 4 Jon Huntsman 2 Buddy Roemer 1 Roy Moore Fred Karger Gary Johnson (Mike Huckabee - vol.) 2 (Chris Christie - vol.) 1 (Jeb Bush - vol.) 1 (Donald Trump - vol.) 1 (Someone else) 1 (Too soon to say) 5 (Don't know) 7
(ROTATE ORDER OF THE NEXT TWO QUESTIONS) (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY) 20. How important is it to you that the Republican nominee agrees with you on most major issues? Very important 53% Somewhat important 43 Not very important 2 Not at all important 2 (Dont know) (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY) 21. How important is it to you that the Republican nominee can beat Barack Obama? Very important 73% Somewhat important 19 Not very important 3 Not at all important 3 (Dont know) 2
(RESUME ALL) Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the election were held today (RANDOMIZE Q22 - 27) 22. How would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE NAMES) Democrat Barack Obama 48% 48% 41% 47%
(Other) 1 2 7 5
(Wouldnt vote) 3 3 2 3
(Dont know) 7 5 11 10
For reference: Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 general election were held today and the candidates were Democrat [NAME] and Republican [NAME], for whom would you vote? (ROTATE CHOICES) Democrat Barack Republican (Other/Dont Obama Mitt Romney know) 30-31 Jan 08 51% 33 16 23. How would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE NAMES) Democrat Barack Obama 56% 56% 48% 55%
(Other) 1 2 7 4
(Wouldnt vote) 5 4 3 4
(Dont know) 3 3 8 5
How would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE NAMES) Democrat Barack Obama 53% 55% 53% Republican Newt Gingrich 34 35 29
(Other) 2 3 5
(Wouldnt vote) 5 3 4
(Dont know) 7 4 9
25.
How would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE NAMES) Republican Democrat Rudy Barack Giuliani (Other) Obama 5-7 Jun 11 47% 43 1
(Wouldnt vote) 4
(Dont know) 6
For reference: Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 general election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rudy Giuliani, for whom would you vote? Barack Rudy (Other/Dont Obama Giuliani know) 25-26 Sep 07 41% 40 19 17-18 Jul 07 45% 41 14 5-6 Jun 07 41% 46 14 27-28 Mar 07 43% 43 14 13-14 Feb 07 39% 45 16 5-6 Dec 06 35% 46 19 26. How would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE NAMES) Republican Democrat Tim Barack Pawlenty (Other) Obama 5-7 Jun 11 50% 32 1 How would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE NAMES) Democrat Republican Barack Chris Obama Christie (Other) 5-7 Jun 11 49% 34 1 28-29 Sep 10 42% 30 7
(Wouldnt vote) 3
(Dont know) 14
27.
(Wouldnt vote) 3 2
(Dont know) 12 19
28. 32. Regardless of how you might vote, how qualified do you think [NAME] is to be president of the United States? (RANDOMIZE LIST) SCALE: 1. Very qualified 2. Somewhat qualified 3. Not very qualified 4. Not at all qualified 5. (Dont know) --- Qualified ----- Not qualified --Not Not TOTAL Very Somewhat TOTAL Very At All (Dont know) Mitt Romney 68% 27 41 21 11 10 11 Newt Gingrich 58% 21 37 33 12 21 9 Tim Pawlenty 43% 10 33 25 12 13 32 Sarah Palin 41% 14 27 56 14 42 3 Herman Cain 32% 7 25 24 11 13 43 Past Trend: Mitt Romney 9-10 Oct 07 54% 16 38 26 13 13 20
33.
Do you think people should be required to show a valid form of state or federally issued photo identification to prove U.S. citizenship before being allowed to vote? Yes, should No, should not (Dont know) 85% 14 1
For reference: Do you think people should be required to show photo identification or a social security card to prove U.S. citizenship before being allowed to register to vote? 9-10 Jun 09 Yes, should 91% No, should not 8 (Dont know) 1 On another topic 34. In general, do you think voters need to know about a candidates past sexual relationships or infidelities because they reflect on the candidates character, or do you think this information should make no difference to elections and that the threat of exposure keeps too many good leaders out of office? Voters need to know about past relationships or infidelities This focus on past relationships keeps good leaders out of office (Dont know) 35. 36%
58 6
Lets say there was a candidate for president who you thought had excellent leadership skills and shared your views on all the issues, but who also had some sexual indiscretions in the pastwould you support that candidate or not? Yes No (Dont know) 65% 21 13
36.
This is graduation season and occasionally a small number of attendees are offended by the inclusion of prayer during the graduation ceremony. In cases like this, what do you think should happen? The small number of people offended by including prayer should be tolerant of the wishes of the larger group The large number of people who want to include prayer should be tolerant and not include it (Dont know) 79%
16 5
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? Tea Party 12% 85% 3% Nonwhite 74% 22% 4% College Degree 50% 45% 5% No College 47% 42% 11%
16. If the 2012 presidential election were held today, would you definitely vote to re-elect Barack Obama, probably vote to reelect Obama, probably vote for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else? Tea Party 5% 1% 9% 81% 2% 2% 6% 90% Nonwhite 53% 19% 7% 15% 3% 1% 2% 72% 23% College Degree 28% 20% 13% 35% 2% 1% 2% 48% 47% No College 28% 14% 14% 37% 5% 1% 2% 42% 51%
Definitely vote to re-elect Obama Probably vote to re-elect Obama Probably vote for someone else Definitely vote for someone else (Too soon to say) (Would not vote for anyone) (Don't know/Refused) OBAMA SOMEONE ELSE
Definitely vote to re-elect Obama Probably vote to re-elect Obama Probably vote for someone else Definitely vote for someone else (Too soon to say) (Would not vote for anyone) (Don't know/Refused) OBAMA SOMEONE ELSE
17. If you could be guaranteed that either the economy would stay in a slump but your favorite candidate would win the next presidential election, or that the economy would turn around and grow stronger than ever but your candidate would lose, which would Tea Party 14% 76% 10% Nonwhite 21% 70% 9% College Degree 15% 78% 7% No College 15% 76% 10%
Favorite candidate winning the presidency The economy growing stronger than ever (Don't know)
Favorite candidate winning the presidency The economy growing stronger than ever (Don't know)
18. In the presidential primary election or caucus in your state next year, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican primary for president, or are you unlikely to participate in either? Tea Party 7% 77% 8% 7% Nonwhite 65% 17% 11% 6% College Degree 42% 40% 13% 5% No College 41% 35% 16% 9%
Dem 86% 3% 8% 4%
Rep 2% 85% 9% 4%
22. How would you vote if the candidates were: Tea Party 10% 80% 1% 4% 5% Nonwhite 74% 20% 2% 4% College Degree 49% 43% 1% 1% 5% No College 47% 40% 1% 4% 9%
Democrat Barack Obama Republican Mitt Romney (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)
Dem 86% 7% 1% 1% 5%
Rep 8% 83% 1% 2% 5%
Democrat Barack Obama Republican Mitt Romney (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)
23. How would you vote if the candidates were: Tea Party 16% 77% 1% 2% 3% Nonwhite 80% 15% 1% 3% 2% College Degree 59% 32% 3% 4% 2% No College 54% 37% *% 5% 4%
Democrat Barack Obama Republican Sarah Palin (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)
Dem 89% 8% 1% 1% 1%
Democrat Barack Obama Republican Sarah Palin (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)
24. How would you vote if the candidates were: Tea Party 12% 74% 3% 4% 7% Nonwhite 75% 16% 1% 2% 5% College Degree 56% 35% 1% 3% 6% No College 51% 33% 2% 6% 8%
Democrat Barack Obama Republican Newt Gingrich (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)
Dem 90% 4% 1% 2% 4%
Democrat Barack Obama Republican Newt Gingrich (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)
Lib 83% 9% 1% 3% 4%
25. How would you vote if the candidates were: Tea Party 12% 79% 3% 3% 4% Nonwhite 76% 18% 3% 3% College Degree 48% 45% 1% 2% 3% No College 46% 41% 2% 4% 7%
Democrat Barack Obama Republican Rudy Giuliani (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)
Rep 9% 81% 1% 4% 4%
Democrat Barack Obama Republican Rudy Giuliani (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)
26. How would you vote if the candidates were: Tea Party 11% 70% 4% 2% 12% Nonwhite 74% 17% 1% 8% College Degree 51% 35% 2% 1% 11% No College 50% 29% 1% 4% 16%
Democrat Barack Obama Republican Tim Pawlenty (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)
Dem 88% 5% *% 1% 6%
Democrat Barack Obama Republican Tim Pawlenty (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)
27. How would you vote if the candidates were: Tea Party 12% 76% 2% 2% 7% Nonwhite 76% 17% 1% 2% 4% College Degree 52% 36% 1% 2% 10% No College 48% 33% 2% 4% 13%
Democrat Barack Obama Republican Chris Christie (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)
Dem 87% 4% 1% 1% 7%
Democrat Barack Obama Republican Chris Christie (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)
28. Regardless of how you might vote, how qualified do you think Mitt Romney is to be president of the United States? Tea Party 55% 26% 6% 5% 7% 82% 11% Nonwhite 16% 38% 16% 16% 15% 54% 32% College Degree 33% 43% 10% 8% 7% 75% 17% No College 23% 39% 12% 12% 14% 62% 24%
Very qualified Somewhat qualified Not very qualified Not at all qualified (Don't know) QUALIFIED NOT QUALIFIED
Very qualified Somewhat qualified Not very qualified Not at all qualified (Don't know) QUALIFIED NOT QUALIFIED
29. Regardless of how you might vote, how qualified do you think Sarah Palin is to be president of the United States? Tea Party 33% 47% 6% 13% 1% 80% 19% Nonwhite 10% 19% 19% 50% 3% 29% 68% College Degree 12% 22% 16% 47% 2% 35% 63% No College 16% 31% 12% 38% 3% 46% 51%
Very qualified Somewhat qualified Not very qualified Not at all qualified (Don't know) QUALIFIED NOT QUALIFIED
Very qualified Somewhat qualified Not very qualified Not at all qualified (Don't know) QUALIFIED NOT QUALIFIED
30. Regardless of how you might vote, how qualified do you think Tim Pawlenty is to be president of the United States? Tea Party 26% 34% 6% 7% 27% 60% 13% Nonwhite 5% 31% 17% 20% 28% 35% 37% College Degree 14% 36% 11% 11% 28% 50% 22% No College 7% 31% 13% 14% 35% 38% 27%
Very qualified Somewhat qualified Not very qualified Not at all qualified (Don't know) QUALIFIED NOT QUALIFIED
Very qualified Somewhat qualified Not very qualified Not at all qualified (Don't know) QUALIFIED NOT QUALIFIED
31. Regardless of how you might vote, how qualified do you think Newt Gingrich is to be president of the United States? Tea Party 46% 38% 6% 5% 5% 84% 11% Nonwhite 13% 32% 15% 28% 12% 45% 43% College Degree 23% 39% 11% 22% 5% 63% 33% No College 20% 34% 13% 21% 12% 54% 34%
Very qualified Somewhat qualified Not very qualified Not at all qualified (Don't know) QUALIFIED NOT QUALIFIED
Total Very qualified Somewhat qualified Not very qualified Not at all qualified (Don't know) QUALIFIED NOT QUALIFIED 21% 37% 12% 21% 9% 58% 33%
32. Regardless of how you might vote, how qualified do you think Herman Cain is to be president of the United States? Tea Party 20% 41% 8% 5% 26% 61% 13% Nonwhite 5% 22% 14% 18% 40% 27% 33% College Degree 7% 27% 12% 13% 41% 34% 25% No College 7% 24% 11% 13% 45% 31% 24%
Very qualified Somewhat qualified Not very qualified Not at all qualified (Don't know) QUALIFIED NOT QUALIFIED
Very qualified Somewhat qualified Not very qualified Not at all qualified (Don't know) QUALIFIED NOT QUALIFIED
33. Do you think people should be required to show a valid form of state or federally issued photo identification to prove U.S. citizenship before being allowed to vote? Tea NonCollege No Total Dem Rep Ind Party Men Women White white Degree College Yes, should 85% 75% 96% 86% 96% 84% 85% 88% 77% 85% 85% No, should not 14% 23% 4% 13% 4% 15% 14% 12% 22% 15% 14% (Don't know) 1% 1% *% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% *% 1% Under Age 35 85% 14% 1% Under $50k 82% 17% *%
Cons 92% 8% 1%
34. In general, do you think voters need to know about a candidates past sexual relationships or infidelities because they reflect on the candidates character, or do you think this information should make no difference to elections and that the threat of exposure keeps too many good leaders out of office? Tea Party 44% Nonwhite 36% College Degree 35% No College 37%
Voters need to know about past relationships or infidelities This focus on past relationships keeps good leaders out of office (Don't know)
Total 36%
Dem 33%
Rep 41%
Ind 36%
Men 37%
Women 35%
White 36%
58%
63%
52%
54%
50%
57%
58%
57%
61%
59%
57%
6%
4%
7%
10%
7%
5%
7%
7%
4%
6%
6%
Voters need to know about past relationships or infidelities This focus on past relationships keeps good leaders out of office (Don't know)
Total 36%
35-54 38%
55+ 41%
65+ 47%
$50k + 36%
Lib 33%
Mod 35%
Cons 39%
58%
68%
57%
51%
43%
58%
59%
62%
59%
54%
6%
6%
5%
8%
10%
5%
5%
5%
5%
7%
35. Lets say there was a candidate for president who you thought had excellent leadership skills and shared your views on all the issues, but who also had some sexual indiscretions in the past-would you support that candidate or not? Tea Party 66% 21% 14% Nonwhite 62% 28% 10% College Degree 68% 18% 13% No College 64% 23% 13%
36. This is graduation season and occasionally a small number of attendees are offended by the inclusion of prayer during the graduation ceremony. In cases like this, what do you think should happen? The small number of people offended by including prayer should be tolerant of the wishes of the larger group, or the large number of people who want to include prayer should be tolerant and not include it? Tea Party 87% Nonwhite 70% College Degree 78% No College 80%
The small number of people offended by including prayer should be tolerant The large number of people who want to include prayer should be tolerant (Don't know)
Total 79%
Dem 72%
Rep 85%
Ind 84%
Men 77%
Women 79%
White 81%
16%
21%
12%
12%
10%
16%
16%
14%
22%
16%
15%
5%
3%
4%
3%
6%
4%
8%
5%
5%
The small number of people offended by including prayer should be tolerant The large number of people who want to include prayer should be tolerant (Don't know)
Total 79%
35-54 79%
55+ 79%
65+ 77%
$50k + 80%
Lib 73%
Mod 70%
Cons 84%
16%
20%
14%
16%
18%
15%
16%
24%
15%
11%
5%
5%
7%
4%
5%
6%
4%
3%
15%
5%