FX DAILY REPORT

FRIDAY JUNE 17TH 2011

Bell FX Currency Outlook

The AUD is slightly stronger today, recovering some of its overnight losses as the market waits for further developments on the Greece debt crisis.
Australia: The AUD had weakened back towards USD1.0500 yesterday as the market worried that Greeces debt woes could spread to other European economies. Overnight the AUD initially dipped to an overnight low of USD1.0478 before recovering to around USD1.0550. With no major economic data being released today, the AUD is expected to trade within a narrow range until Sunday when Euro-zone finance ministers meet to decide on the next round of emergency loans for Greece. A confidence vote for the Greek cabinet is also expected on Sunday which again will be critical for the market.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 Aug-06

Aug-07

Aug-08

Aug-09

Aug-10

Aug-11

Todays Forecast Range

USD 1.0525-1.0625
Majors: Fears of a Greek default dominated the market Thursday night, sending the EUR lower against most of the major currencies. Mixed data out of the US was overshadowed as Greece moved closer to political chaos and European leaders moved no closer to a long-term debt solution. US equities ended the session higher in volatile trade while European equities were down on poor sentiment. Slightly better than expected US labour and housing data helped to give the USD a lift; however the Philadelphia Fed index was disappointing as it continued its sharp decline. Gold was lower, declining 0.1% to USD1529.23, while Oil finished the session slightly higher after the IEA forecast that global crude demand would rise in the third quarter. As mentioned above, the market will be watching any outcomes out of Sundays meetings in Europe for direction with pressure likely to continue to weigh down the EUR during overnight trade.
Currencies AUD / USD USD / JPY EUR / USD GBP / USD NZD / USD AUD Crosses AUD / JPY AUD / EUR AUD / GBP AUD / NZD AUD / CAD Australian Rates Official Cash 3 Month Bill 10 Year Bond Economic Calendar 17 JUNE US Rates EU ECBs Trichet speaks in NY EU Euro-zone Trade Balance APR US Uni of Michigan Confidence JUNE Fed Funds 3 Month Libor 10 Year Bond Commodities
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Last 1.0559 80.55 1.4201 1.6158 0.8055 Last 85.10 0.7430 0.6530 1.3103 1.0360 Last 4.75 4.98 5.205 Last 0.25 0.247 2.927 Last 1529.23 94.95 336.89 Last 4479 11962 5699 21953 9411

High 1.0593 81.03 1.4221 1.6225 0.8072 High 86.69 0.7464 0.6545 1.3170 1.0392 Previous

Low 1.0478 80.48 1.4074 1.6079 0.7973 Low 84.62 0.7325 0.6510 1.3096 1.0311

5.02 5.23 Previous

0.245 2.969 - / + (%) -0.1 +0.1 -0.61 - / + (%) -1.9 +0.5 -0.8 -1.7 -1.7

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