/nne Stenersen |s a researcb jellou at tbe Norueg|an Dejence Researcb Establ|sbnent (|||) |n Oslo. Noruay.

Sbe bas uorked u|tb |||'s

Terror|sn Researcb Group s|nce :oo6 and conducted researcb on terror|sn |n|ol||ng ueapons oj nass destruct|on. al-Oaeda's use oj tbe
|nternet. and n|l|tant |slan|sn |n /jgban|stan and Pak|stan. Sbe bas an M Pb|l. |n /s|an and /jr|can stud|es jron tbe Un||ers|ty oj Oslo.
najor|ng |n /rab|c language. Sbe |s pursu|ng a doctorate about tbe relat|onsb|p betueen al-Oaeda and tbe Tal|ban.

C6u)rv)rvv6visu S)vt)rcv Ii)it)ivr P6iicv Ptvrv C6u)rv)rvv6visu S)vt)rcv Ii)it)ivr P6iicv Ptvrv C6u)rv)rvv6visu S)vt)rcv Ii)it)ivr P6iicv Ptvrv C6u)rv)rvv6visu S)vt)rcv Ii)it)ivr P6iicv Ptvrv
A-Q\\`s As
Exlaining tho Rolationshi Botwoon Al-Qaoda and Vaiious
Factions ol tho Talilan Altoi zooi

Ar S)rrvsr, Avvii :oo
Whilo al-Qaoda lightois continuo to coooiato with tho Talilan on a tactical lovol, al-Qaoda and tho
Quotta Shuia havo divoigod stiatogically sinco zooi. This dovolonont can lo asciilod to al-
Qaoda`s iolocation to tho Fodoially Adninistoiod Tiilal Aioas (FATA in zooizoozhundiods
ol nilos lion tho Quotta Shuia`s laso in Baluchistanand its alignnont with Pakistani tiilal
nilitants.

Executlve Summary

Fragmented alliances. This aoi oxaninos tho natuio
ol tho iolationshi lotwoon al-Qaoda and tho Talilan altoi
zooi, which is conlox locauso noithoi tho Talilan noi al-
Qaoda is a honogonous actoi. Rathoi, oach is a notwoik ol
liko-nindod gious and individuals that answoi, to sono
dogioo oi othoi, to a contializod loadoishi.

Al-Qaeda operations in AFghanistan. Al-Qaoda`s
contiilution to tho Alghan insuigoncy sinco zooi has loon
highly localizod, taking laco nostly in tho southoastoin
and oastoin iovincos ol tho countiy. This concontiation is
duo to loth googiahic lactois and al-Qaoda`s long-standing
tios to local nilitants in thoso iogions.

Al-Qaeda and the Quetta Shura. Whilo al-Qaoda
lightois continuo to coooiato with tho Talilan on a tactical
lovol, al-Qaoda and tho Quotta Shuia havo divoigod
stiatogically sinco zooi. This dovolonont can lo asciilod
to al-Qaoda`s iolocation to tho Fodoially Adninistoiod
Tiilal Aioas (FATA in zooizoozhundiods ol nilos
lion tho Quotta Shuia`s laso in Baluchistanand its
alignnont with Pakistani tiilal nilitants.

Fighting on two Fronts. Initially, tho allianco lotwoon al-
Qaoda and its tiilal hosts was lasod on a shaiod dosiio to
light U.S. and NATO loicos in Alghanistan. Howovoi,
zoo saw tho iiso ol a violont canaign against tho
Pakistani stato, which was intonsiliod altoi tho Lal Masiid
(Rod Mosquo siogo in Islanalad in July zoo;. Militants in
tho FATA, such as tho notwoik ol Baitullah Mohsud,
aiticiatod in tho canaign, whilo tho Alghan Talilan
oosod it. Al-Qaoda docidod to lond vocal suoit to tho
canaign, although it ossontially contiadictod tho Quotta
Shuia`s olicy ol lighting insido Alghanistan only.
Nw A&c\ Foun\ron



nw \&c\ oun\ron counrros&.nw\&c\.nr
v\c z

Pakistan as a likely recruiting ground For al-Qaeda.
In a lundanontal shilt in al-Qaoda`s stiatogy, al-Qaoda`s
loadois aio sooking to lo noio inlluontial in tho Pakistani
nilitant onviionnont. This is iolally not a conscious
chango, lut tho iosult ol tho notwoik`s dovolonont ovoi
tino altoi loing iolocatod to Pakistan in zooizooz. Whilo
tho iihad in Alghanistan is still al-Qaoda`s to iioiity,
Pakistan is onoiging as a likoly iociuiting giound in tho
lutuio.

Introductlon

Tho natuio ol al-Qaoda`s iolationshi with tho Talilan altoi
zooi ionains a contontious issuo in tho Wost. Sono
analysts aiguo that tho londs aio as stiong as ovoi, othois
that tho Talilan is ioady to alandon al-Qaoda il givon
onough incontivo to do so.
i
In ioality, loth thooiios aio
gioss sinlilications ol ioality. Thoio is no singlo way to
chaiactoiizo tho al-QaodaTalilan" iolationshi altoi zooi,
locauso noithoi al-Qaoda noi tho Talilan is a honogonoous
and contially contiollod oiganization. Rathoi, thoy consist
ol notwoiks ol liko-nindod gious and individuals that
answoi, to sono dogioo oi othoi, to a contializod
loadoishi, lut at tho sano tino havo autonony to act on
thoii own.

Why was al-Qaoda allo to ostallish a salo
havon in FATA altoi zooi? And what is tho
natuio ol tho iolationshi lotwoon al-Qaoda
and tho insuigont novononts in Alghanistan
and Pakistan today?

To iosont a noio nuancod undoistanding ol tho al-Qaoda
Talilan iolationshi, this aiticlo locusos on two quostions:
Why was al-Qaoda allo to ostallish a salo havon in FATA
altoi zooi? And what is tho natuio ol tho iolationshi
lotwoon al-Qaoda and tho insuigont novononts in
Alghanistan and Pakistan today?
Most aiticlos that discuss al-Qaoda`s iolationshi with tho
Talilan tond to locus on tho iolo and inlluonco ol al-Qaoda
in tho local nilitant onviionnont.
z
Tho gonoial linding is
that al-Qaoda lunctions as a loico nultilioi" loi local
gious, suoiting thon with nanowoi, socialist
knowlodgo, and ioaganda, and acting as an advisoi and
nogotiatoi. Moioovoi, al-Qaoda`s iosonco in tho aioa is
said to havo stiongthonod tho link lotwoon local
insuigoncios in Alghanistan and Pakistan and tho glolal
iihadist cuiiont. Howovoi, thoso olsoivations do littlo to
claiily why coitain lactions ol tho Talilan novonont soon
to lo noio closoly alignod with al-Qaoda than othois.
Tho gioatost challongo to conducting such a study is tho
lack ol accuiato and dotailod inloination on tho gious in
quostion. This aiticlo sooks to lill tho inloination ga ly
oxanining oiiginal souicos lion tho al-Qaoda notwoik,
including naityi liogiahios" (shoit, liogiahical stoiios
ullishod ly al-Qaoda altoi a nilitant`s doath, lattlo
lootago, and ollicial and unollicial statononts lion al-
Qaoda nilitants who woio lasod in Alghanistan and
Pakistan altoi zooi.

A Meetlng 8etween 8rothers

Tho nooting lotwoon tho Egytian al-Qaoda loadoi Mustala
Alu al-Yazid and tho Alghan Talilan connandoi Mansoui
Dadullah in zoo; was caiolully diioctod and lilnod loi
ioaganda uiosos. Suiioundod ly gunnon, tho two
loadois aio soon giooting oach othoi liko old liionds. Tho
novio titlo, A Mooting Botwoon Biothois, llashos ovoi tho
scioon. Latoi, thoy aio soon soatod togothoi outsido,
soaking ol tho liothoily iolations lotwoon al-Qaoda and
tho Talilan. Tho tios lotwoon tho liothois in al-Qaoda and
liothois in tho Talilan havo incioasod. Tho alloction
lotwoon thon has incioasod. Tho Inan |laith|-lasod
liothoihood has incioasod," al-Yazid statos. To dato, it is
tho nost high-lovol nooting lotwoon al-Qaoda and tho
Talilan catuiod on tao.

Yot, tho signilicanco ol tho nooting is haid to gaugo.
Mansoui Dadullah and his liothoi, Mullah Dadullah, woio



nw \&c\ oun\ron counrros&.nw\&c\.nr
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two ol tho nost vocal suoitois ol al-Qaoda within tho
Talilan`s loadoishi ianks. At tho sano tino, thoy woio
known to havo dilloioncos with othoi Talilan loadois,
including Mullah Muhannad Onai hinsoll. Thoso
dilloioncos woio cloaily shown whon Mansoui Dadullah
was disnissod lion tho Talilan in Doconloi zoo;,
iooitodly locauso ho had iolusod to lollow Mullah Onai`s
oidois. Duo to thoso intoinal disagioononts, tho Dadullah
liothois` viow ol al-Qaoda is not nocossaiily ioiosontativo
ol tho iolationshi lotwoon al-Qaoda and othoi lactions ol
tho Talilan loadoishi.

In gonoial, tho iolationshi lotwoon tho oiganizations'
loadois is said to lo coidial lut suoilicial duo to
googiahic distancos and tho socuiity iisks involvod in
nooting. Tho Talilan loadoishi is loliovod to lo lasod in
Quotta, in tho Baluchistan iovinco ol Pakistan, whilo al-
Qaoda`s hoadquaitois is lasod in oi aiound FATA. This
noans that tho loadois ol tho two notwoiks noot only on
iaio occasions, and thoy othoiwiso connunicato via
nossongois and ioiosontativos.

Foinally, al-Qaoda`s loadois havo swoin an oath ol
allogianco (lay`a to Mullah Onai. Osana lin Ladon liist
swoio allogianco to hin in ioo8, and al-Yazid ionowod tho
lodgo in a vidootaod sooch in zoo;.

This noans, in
ossonco, that al-Qaoda`s loadois iocognizo Mullah Onai as
tho suiono connandoi ol tho iihad in Alghanistan.
Aynan al-Zawahiii ut it liko this in zoo8: Mullah
Muhannad Onai, nay God iosoivo hin, is tho Enii ol
tho Islanic Eniiato in Alghanistan and thoso anong tho
nuiahodin who ioinod it. Shoikh Osana lin Ladon . . . is
ono ol his soldiois."

Howovoi, in iactico tho iolationshi lotwoon al-Qaoda and
tho Quotta Shuia is not nocossaiily ono ol connand and
contiol. Rathoi, it is a olitical iolationshi, whoio al-Qaoda
has agiood not to ostallish a conoting oiganization to that
ol Mullah Onai`s. This asoct ol tho iolationshi has also
loon onhasizod ly Mullah Baiadai. Whon askod why tho
Talilan allowod loioignois to light in its ianks, ho said that
thoy woio voluntoois who had cono to light loi tho sako ol
Islan: thoy had not cono to Alghanistan to ostallish
olitical aitios and oiganizations."
o


In iactico tho iolationshi lotwoon al-Qaoda
and tho Quotta Shuia is not nocossaiily ono ol
connand and contiol. Rathoi, it is a olitical
iolationshi.

By sulnitting to tho authoiity ol Mullah Onai, tho al-
Qaoda loadoishi in Pakistan is avoiding sono ol tho
nistakos ol Alu Mus`al al-Zaiqawi in Iiaq, whoio tho local
al-Qaoda lianch ho was loading tiiod to conoto loi owoi
with othoi Iiaqi insuigont gious. This was ono ol tho
ioasons why al-Qaoda in Iiaq locano incioasingly
unoulai with othoi insuigont lactions, and in tho ond
lailod to naintain a stiong iosonco in tho countiy.

Tho stiatogy ol sulnitting to Mullah Onai nay aitly
oxlain al-Qaoda`s iosilionco in tho Alghanistan-Pakistan
loidoi aioas. This doos not nocossaiily noan that al-Qaoda
and tho Quotta Shuia havo locono noio closoly alignod
sinco zooi. On tho contiaiy, thoy soon to havo novod
luithoi aait. Ono indication ol this is that thoio is
iolativoly littlo tactical coooiation lotwoon al-Qaoda
lightois and Talilan gious in southoin Alghanistan,
whoio tho Quotta Shuia is loliovod to oxoiciso nost
inlluonco ovoi tho insuigoncy. Anothoi indication is that
sinco zooi, al-Qaoda has locono noio closoly alignod with
Pakistani nilitant loadois, duo to its doondonco on a
sanctuaiy in FATA.

1actlca| Cooperatlon

Anong iank-and-lilo Talilan nonlois, tho attitudo towaid
al-Qaoda iangos lion adniiation and iaiso to outiight
hostility. A local Talilan connandoi intoiviowod in
Nowswook in zooo oxiossod a iathoi doiogatoiy attitudo



nw \&c\ oun\ron counrros&.nw\&c\.nr
v\c

towaid Aials and othoi loioignois": As lai as I know, Al
Qaoda is woak, and thoy aio low in nunlois. Now that wo
contiol laigo anounts ol toiiitoiy, wo should havo a stiict
codo ol conduct loi any loioignois woiking with us. . . . Wo
cannot allow thon to ioan liooly."
;
Accoiding to a U.S.
intolligonco iooit ullishod in zooo, catuiod Talilan
lightois told intoiiogatois that Talilan loadois soo al-
Qaoda as a handica."
8


On tho othoi hand, al-Qaoda`s coooiation with tho Talilan
gious in Alghanistan on a tactical lovol soons to continuo
as loloio.
o
This is not a contiadiction, lut it iollocts tho lact
that ovoi sinco zooi, al-Qaoda`s contiilution to tho Alghan
insuigoncy has loon highly localizod, taking laco nostly in
tho southoastoin and oastoin iovincos ol tho countiy.

An indication ol tho googiahical sioad ol al-Qaoda`s
activity can lo lound ly looking at lattlo lootago ioducod
ly tho al-Qaoda alliliatod nodia instituto al-Sahal. Fion
zoo thiough zooo, al-Sahal issuod alout oo lilns in its
soiios Pyio loi tho Anoiicans in tho Land ol Khuiasan
(Alghanistan. Tho lilns show gious ol lightois caiiying
out iockot attacks, anlushos, and attacks with iniovisod
oxlosivo dovicos (IEDs, nainly on Alghan toiiitoiy. Tho
lilns do not nocossaiily noan that Aial oi othoi loioign
lightois took ait in tho attacks, lut thoy do inly a
connoction lotwoon tho lighting giou and al-Qaoda`s
nodia ooiation, which dissoninatos tho lootago thiough
al-Qaodaalliliatod discussion loiuns on tho Intoinot.

Al-Sahal logan ioducing thoso lilns in zoo whon tho
insuigoncy staitod icking u sood. Tho yoai zooo saw
tho laigost ioduction, with 8 lilns in total. Tho
ioduction docioasod in sulsoquont yoais, and only thioo
lilns woio ioloasod in zooo. Sinco noaily all tho lilns
contain inloination on whoio tho liln was shot (and il wo
assuno this is accuiato, wo can assonllo tho lollowing
iovinco distiilution (soo Figuio i:
Figuio i: Piovinco distiilution ol al-Sahal`s ooiational lilns, zoo-zooo. Tho ii
Alghan iovincos woio tho only onos nontionod in al-Sahal`s ooiational lilns.
Additionally, two lilns woio shot in Pakistan: an additional liln was shot in an
uncloai location.

Tho high concontiation ol lilns lion Khost and
noighloiing Paktika ( lilns in total and Kunai (iz lilns
is woith noting. Thoso aioas loidoi tho agoncios in FATA
whoio Aials aio loliovod to havo thoii nain sanctuaiios
Waziiistan and Baiaui. It suggosts that al-Qaoda has
ostallishod low lasos doo insido Alghan toiiitoiy itsoll,
and that cioss-loidoi iaids soon to lo tho ioloiiod tyo ol
activity. Moioovoi, thoio is a disiooitionato nunloi ol
lilns lion southoastoin Alghanistan givon tho high lovol ol
insuigoncy-iolatod violonco in this aioa. In othoi woids, al-
Sahal`s covoiago ol tho insuigoncy soons to lo liasod
towaid coitain aioas.

This ioloionco is conliinod ly othoi iihadist souicos, such
as naityi liogiahios" ol loioign lightois. Tho nost
connon tyo ol ooiation nontionod in thoso liogiahios
is cioss-loidoi iaids lion Waziiistan into southoastoin
Alghanistan. Howovoi, tho liogiahios also dosciilo toans
ol Aials who woio sont into oastoin Alghanistan to suoit
insuigont activitios. Foi oxanlo, a Syiian lightoi wont to
Jalalalad aiound zoo to ostallish a iihadi coll in tho aioa.
Allogodly, ho took ait in constiucting tho lonl that killod
tho city`s socuiity chiol, Aial Shah, on Juno i, zoo.
io

Foioign lightois woio also activo in tho notwoiks that
oiganizod and oxocutod suicido attacks in vaiious aits ol
tho countiy, including Kalul and noithoin Alghanistan. In



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contiast, loioign lightois aoai to havo loon nuch loss
activo in tho Talilan`s hoaitland, tho southoin iovincos ol
Alghanistan.

Sinco zooi, al-Qaoda`s contiilutions to tho
insuigoncy in Alghanistan havo loon highly
localizod: Aials havo nostly lought in coitain
iovincos and loi coitain connandois.

Tho iihadist souicos soon to conliin that sinco zooi, al-
Qaoda`s contiilutions to tho insuigoncy in Alghanistan
havo loon highly localizod: Aials havo nostly lought in
coitain iovincos and loi coitain connandois. This inlios
that tho tactical coooiation lotwoon al-Qaoda lightois and
local insuigont gious in Alghanistan is lasod on
googiahy and histoiical, oisonal tios, iathoi than on a
closo iolationshi with tho Talilan loadoishi in Quotta.

A Paklstanl A|-Qaeda?

Thoio aio othoi indications that al-Qaoda is noving luithoi
away lion tho "tiaditional" Talilan loadoishi. Al-Qaoda
has locono noio closoly alignod with Pakistani nilitant
gious sinco zooi, duo to its doondonco on sanctuaiy in
FATA. In tho loginning ol tho insuigoncy this did not
iosont nuch ol a iollon, locauso Pakistani gious
ooiatod in a sulsoiviont iolo to tho Quotta Shuia-lod
insuigoncy in Alghanistan.

Howovoi, zoo saw tho iiso ol a violont canaign against
tho Pakistani stato, which intonsiliod altoi tho Lal Masiid
(Rod Mosquo siogo in Islanalad in July zoo;. Tho
canaign was caiiiod out ly vaiious Pakistani gious
lasod nainly in FATA and tho Noith-Wost Fiontioi
Piovinco. Sono ol thon, such as tho Baitullah Mohsud
Giou, had ly that tino luilt a closo iolationshi to al-
Qaoda ly acting as al-Qaoda`s "hosts" in South Waziiistan.
A liont viow ol tho lullot-iiddlod losiogod nilitant Rod Mosquo, Islanalad,

July
zoo; {{ AAMIR QURESHI{AFP{Gotty

In zoo;, al-Qaoda`s loadois locano incioasingly vocal in
thoii suoit loi violonco against tho Pakistani stato.
ii
Al-
Qaoda`s hostility towaid tho Pakistani iogino is not in itsoll
now, lut loloio zoo; it was nostly linitod to caiiying out
toiioiist attacks on Wostoin taigots and naking
assassination attonts on Pakistani loadois. Tho now locus
is thoioloio intoiosting as it ossontially contiadicts tho
Quotta Shuia`s stiatogy ol lighting insido Alghanistan only.

A lundanontal shilt in al-Qaoda`s stiatogy also soons to
havo occuiiod with al-Qaoda`s loadois sooking to lo noio
inlluontial in tho Pakistani nilitant onviionnont. This is
iolally not a conscious chango ol iioiitios, lut tho iosult
ol tho al-Qaoda notwoik`s dovolonont ovoi tino altoi
loing iolocatod to Pakistan in zooizooz.

In tho FATA, al-Qaoda soons to havo lound a noio
iocotivo onviionnont loi its glolal iihadi idoology. Whilo
tho Alghan Talilan stiivos to iocovoi owoi lost in
Alghanistan, al-Qaoda`s tiilal allios in tho FATA havo novoi
iun a stato. Howovoi, sinilai to al-Qaoda, thoy havo a long
tiadition ol lighting othoi oolo`s wais, osocially in
noighloiing Kashnii and Alghanistan. Whilo tho iihad in
Alghanistan is still al-Qaoda`s to iioiity, Pakistan is
onoiging as a likoly iociuiting giound in tho lutuio.




nw \&c\ oun\ron counrros&.nw\&c\.nr
v\c o

Hlstorlca| 8ackground

Fion iooo to zooi, vaiious gious ol loioign nilitants
(iinaiily lion tho Middlo East, Noith Aliica, Contial Asia,
and Pakistan onioyod sanctuaiy in Alghanistan undoi tho
Talilan iogino. Thoy includod lin Ladon`s al-Qaoda
notwoik lut also a host ol othoi gious that coooiatod
with al-Qaoda whilo uisuing soaiato agondas. Al-Qaoda`s
toiioiist attacks on Now Yoik and Washington on
Sotonloi ii, zooi, iocoivod nixod ioactions lion tho Aial
and Contial Asian nilitants in Alghanistan and tho Talilan.
Whilo nany ol al-Qaoda`s allios did not ooso tho idoa ol
attacking Anoiicans, thoio woio loais that tho attacks
would iovoko tho Unitod Statos to invado Alghanistan and
dostioy tho sanctuaiy tho loioign lightois onioyod thoio.
Tho Talilan shaiod this loai, though nany ol tho loadois
woio ioluctant to loliovo that lin Ladon was iosonsillo loi
tho attacks.

Dosito tho contiovoisy ol o{ii, thoio was no lundanontal
slit lotwoon tho naioi loioign lightoi gious in
Alghanistan and tho Talilan loadoishi at that oint.
Instoad, thoy ioinod hands to conliont tho U.S.-lod invasion
ol tho countiy, which staitod on Octoloi ;, zooi. Fion tho
outsot, tho al-Qaoda loadoishi was involvod in oiganizing
tho loioign lightois. High-ianking al-Qaoda connandois
such as Sayl al-Adl and Ald al-Hadi al-Iiaqi stayod in
Alghanistan and lought tho U.S.-lod invasion, until tho
Talilan docidod to withdiaw lion tho naioi citios and stait
a guoiiilla wai. In tho woids ol Ald al-Hadi al-Iiaqi, who
was intoiviowod ly tho iihadist Wol sito al-Noda in zooz:
Tho oidoi to withdiaw cano lion Mullah Onai. . . . A
iogulai wai would not hain tho onony, so that`s why thoio
was a docision to switch to guoiiilla wailaio, which huits
tho onony nuch noio than whon wo woio holding on to
tho citios."
iz
This indicatos that thoio was a iolativoly high
dogioo ol cooidination lotwoon al-Qaoda and tho Talilan at
tho tino.

Tho Talilan`s lightois and connandois would oithoi
quiotly iotuin to thoii villagos and llond in with tho Alghan
oulation, oi withdiaw acioss tho loidoi to Pakistan,
whoio thoy had oxtonsivo notwoiks ol suoitois. Aials,
Uzloks, and othoi loioignois who could not llond in so
oasily had no choico lut to loavo tho countiy. Tho
ovacuation ol loioign lightois and thoii lanilios lion
Alghanistan to Pakistan took laco ovoi sovoial nonths, in
coooiation with Talilan connandois and tiilal loadois in
southoastoin and oastoin aits ol tho countiy.

It was haidly a coincidonco that tho nain withdiawal ioutos
ol tho loioign lightois wont lion oastoin Alghanistan
thiough FATA. Evoi sinco tho io8os, al-Qaoda nilitants
havo had tios to nilitant notwoiks in this iogion. Bin
Ladon`s liist laso on Alghan soil was ostallishod in Jaii, in
southoastoin Alghanistan, at tho hoight ol tho Alghan-
Soviot wai, in coooiation with Jalaluddin Haqqani. Whon
lin Ladon iotuinod to Alghanistan lion Sudan in iooo, ho
did so at tho invitation ol Yunus Khalis, an old ally lion tho
nuiahodin oiiod lasod in Nangaihai, in oastoin
Alghanistan.
i


Dosito tho contiovoisy ol o{ii, thoio was no
lundanontal slit lotwoon tho naioi loioign
lightoi gious in Alghanistan and tho Talilan
loadoishi at that oint.

Altoi tho Talilan cano to owoi, al-Qaoda`s hoadquaitois
novod to Kandahai at tho ioquost ol Mullah Onai, lut al-
Qaoda continuod to ooiato tiaining cans in tho
southoastoin and oastoin aits ol tho countiy. Altoi tho
U.S.-lod canaign against Alghanistan in lato zooi, al-
Qaoda`s last lattlos woio stagod in tho sano iogionstho
lattlo ol Toia Boia in Nangaihai (Doconloi zooi, and tho
lattlo ol Shah-i-Kot in Khost, also known as Ooiation
Anaconda" (Maich zooz. Militants connoctod with oastoin
Alghan Talilan lactions (including Haqqani, Khalis, and
othois aoai to havo holod tho Aials to lloo acioss tho
loidoi to FATA.
i




nw \&c\ oun\ron counrros&.nw\&c\.nr
v\c ;

FATA did not innodiatoly onoigo as tho now hoadquaitois
ol al-Qaoda's loadoishi. In tho yoais lollowing zooi, al-
Qaoda was googiahically disoisod. Although nost loioign
nilitants llod to FATA, othois sottlod in salo housos in
Pakistani citios such as Kaiachi and Rawalindi whoio thoy
continuod thoii activitios. A giou ol high-ianking al-Qaoda
loadois also took iolugo in Iian.
i
Fion zoo, tho sanctuaiy
in FATA incioasod in inoitanco as it locano haidoi loi
al-Qaoda ooiativos to hido olsowhoio in tho iogion. Aiound
zoo, thoio was a ciackdown on al-Qaoda nonlois lasod
in Iian, and tho sano yoai sovoial high-ianking al-Qaoda
nonlois woio aiiostod in Pakistani citios, including tho
o{ii nastoinind, Khalid Shoikh Mohannod. Altoi this, al-
Qaoda`s ooiational hoadquaitois olloctivoly novod to
FATA.
io
In sulsoquont yoais, FATA would locono known
as a staging giound loi a nunloi ol al-Qaodalinkod
toiioiist lots and attacks in tho Wost, including tho
toiioiist attacks in London on July ;, zoo.

Tho locus on al-Qaoda`s intoinational toiioiist activitios
tonds to ovoishadow tho lact that altoi zooi, tho nain
concoin loi loioign lightois who consolidatod thoii laso in
this aioa was to iogiou and ioaio loi guoiiilla wai in
Alghanistan, in coooiation with local insuigonts on loth
sidos ol tho loidoi. This is an inoitant lackdio loi
undoistanding how al-Qaoda nanagod to ostallish and
sustain its tios with tho local nilitants in this aioa.

Deve|oplng the Front Llnes

In nid-zooz, Alu al-Layth al-Lili was soaking on a
sciatchy hono lino lion tho loidoilands lotwoon
Alghanistan and Pakistan: Wo aio now dovoloing tho
lionts along all linos to nako it a laigo-scalo waitho wai
ol anlushos, assassinations, and ooiations that tako laco
in tho nost unoxoctod lacos loi tho onony," ho
conlidontly doclaiod.
i;
Tho hono intoiviow with al-Lili was
iocoidod and ullishod as an audio lilo on iohad.not, al-
Qaoda`s nain nodia outlot at tho tino. Fow had hoaid ol al-
Lili lack thon, lut ho would tuin out to lo ono ol tho nost
inlluontial Aial connandois in tho Waziiistan aioa, until
his doath in an aiistiiko in Noith Waziiistan on Januaiy zo,
zoo8.
i8


Al-Lili`s doclaiation ol a guoiiilla wai against U.S. tioos in
Alghanistan in tho sunnoi ol zooz illustiatos tho
iioiitios ol nany ol tho Aial lightois who had sottlod in
Waziiistan altoi zooi. Al-Liliwho was associatod with tho
Lilyan Islanic Fighting Giou (LIFG loloio ho ollicially"
ioinod al-Qaoda in zoo;lolongod to a notwoik ol
oxoiioncod loioign nilitants who woio disaointod ly tho
iaid lall ol tho Talilan iogino in Alghanistan and
dotoininod to continuo tho wai against U.S. occuation"
ol tho countiy. Accoiding to local nilitants, tho loioignois
who cano to tho aioa soon staitod oiganizing tiaining
cans loi voluntoois, ioachod to tho local oulation, and
caiiiod out cioss-loidoi attacks on U.S. loicos in
Alghanistan.
io


A ioading ol naityi liogiahios" ol alout izo (nostly
Aial lightois who woio killod in Alghanistan oi Pakistan
in zoozzooo conliins this ictuio. Altoi thoy sottlod in
tho tiilal aioas, oo oicont ol tho nilitants iooitodly woio
involvod in guoiiilla wailaio (iockot attacks, anlushos, and
lanting ioadsido lonls, i oicont woio involvod in
tiaining and instiuction, i oicont woio involvod in
adninistiativo{nodia woik, and ii oicont woio involvod in
oiganizing and{oi oxocuting suicido attacks in Alghanistan.
Howovoi, only oicont woio involvod in activitios iolatod
to intoinational toiioiisn.
zo
Tho ovoiall activitios ol tho
loioign lightois in Waziiistan, thoioloio, soonod to lo
contoiod on lighting U.S. tioos in Alghanistan,
coiiosonding with tho al-Qaoda loadoishi`s anlitions at
tho tino.

Tho Aial loioign lightois woio unitod ly tho light in
Alghanistan iathoi than ly alliliation with any aiticulai
giou. Foi oxanlo, al-Lili was a votoian ol tho LIFG who,
liko nany nilitant Islanists lacing oisocution in tho Aial
woild, novod to Alghanistan and lound iolugo undoi tho
Talilan iogino in tho iooos. Altoi tho withdiawal to
Waziiistan, ho woikod as an indoondont connandoi



nw \&c\ oun\ron counrros&.nw\&c\.nr
v\c 8

Alu Layth al-Lili

{{ As-Sahal scioon shot, Aiil z;, zoo;.


suoiting tho wai against U.S. loicos in Alghanistan.
Sono souicos havo indicatod that his iolationshi with tho
al-Qaoda loadoishi was stiainod at tinos and that ho
ioloiiod to woik diioctly with tho Talilan.
zi
Howovoi, this
did not iovont hin lion coooiating with tho othoi Aial
connandois in Waziiistan.

In zoo, al-Lili was iooitod to havo shaiod hoadquaitois
with sovoial al-Qaoda connandois in Wana, including Alu
Khalal al-Masii and Hanza Ralia al-Masii.
zz
Ho also had
a closo iolationshi with Alu Yahya al-Lili, aoaiing with
hin in sovoial ioaganda vidoos.
z
His allianco with al-
Qaoda locano loinalizod" in oaily zoo;, whon al-Qaoda`s
ollicial nodia ain, al-Sahal, staitod iosonting hin as an
al-Qaoda connandoi" in its ioductions.
z
An ollicial
noigoi" lotwoon Alghan-lasod LIFG and al-Qaoda also
took laco in zoo;, though it had low iactical
ianilications loi al-Qaoda`s glolal iihadist canaign. Altoi
his doath, Alu al-Layth al-Lili was oulogizod ly sovoial
high-ianking al-Qaoda loadois, including al-Zawahiii, al-
Yazid, and Alu Yahya al-Lili, as woll as vaiious iogional al-
Qaoda lianchos and nodia outlots,
z
indicativo ol tho high
statuio ho had in tho al-Qaoda notwoik ly thon.

Anong nilitants on tho giound, Alu al-Layth al-Lili`s
soldiois woio known as nainu`at Alu al-Layth (Alu al-
Layth`s giou. This was not unconnonthoio woio othoi
connandois also dosciilod as having thoii own gious"
ol lightois, such as tho Egytian Alu Ald al-Rahnan al-
Misii.
zo
Whilo tho nost ioninont Aial connandois woio
olton Egytian, Lilyan, oi Saudi, tho nonloishi ol thoii
gious aoaiod to lo nixod. Alu al-Layth al-Lili`s giou
consistod ol a nunloi ol nationalitios, including Alghans
and Pakistanis.
z;
It is likoly that othoi Aial-lod gious also
had nixod conosition, including Pakistanis and Alghans
who had tiainod in thoii cans. A local nilitant oxlainod
what haonod altoi ho giaduatod lion an Aial tiaining
can in Waziiistan along with aiound ioo Pakistani tiilal
nonlois and o Alghans: Wo woio dividod into io
gious. Each had two oi thioo Aials assignod to it as
connandois and instiuctois. Wo slit u: Sono gious
wont to Khost and Paktiya iovincos, and othois to Ghazni
and Kandahai."
z8


Tho non-Aial nilitant gious in FATAin aiticulai, tho
Islanic Movonont ol Uzlokistan (IMU, tho Islanic Jihad
Union (IJU, and tho East Tuikostan Islanic Movonont
(ETIMdilloiod lion tho Aial onos in that thoy ionotod
thoii giou idontitios" noio activoly and had thoii own
ioaganda canaigns in thoii nativo languagos.
zo
Aials
and Contial Asians also had soaiato tiaining cans, lut
this was connon loloio zooi and was not nocossaiily a
sign ol conotition oi othnic tonsion.

Altoi noving to Waziiistan, tho Aials and
Uzloks ol tho IMU aoai to havo dovolood
in dilloiont diioctions.

Howovoi, altoi noving to Waziiistan, tho Aials and
Uzloks ol tho IMU aoai to havo dovolood in dilloiont
diioctions.
o
Tho Aials naintainod thoii locus on unilying
tho ianks and lighting tho Unitod Statos in Alghanistan,
whilo tho IMU locano ontionchod in lattlos against tho



nw \&c\ oun\ron counrros&.nw\&c\.nr
v\c o

Pakistan Ainy in South Waziiistan. This dovolonont
iolally had noio to do with tiilal local dynanics than
with othnic tonsion lotwoon Aials and Uzloks. Aial
connandois continuod to coooiato closoly with othoi
Uzlok gious in Waziiistan altoi zooi, in aiticulai tho
IMU ollshoot, tho IJU, which was loinod in zooz.

Tho IJU aoaiod to lo noio closoly alignod with al-
Qaoda`s idoology than tho IMU, and it ovon oxiossod
willingnoss to suoit toiioiist ooiations in Wostoin
countiios.
i
Howovoi, noio inoitant in tho local contoxt is
iolally tho lact that tho IJU iotainod closo links with
Alghan-locusod local gious, such as tho Haqqani notwoik,
iathoi than loconing ontanglod in local owoi stiugglos oi
lighting Pakistani socuiity loicos.
z
In this way, it continuod
to lo an attiactivo allianco aitnoi loi tho Aials.

A|-Qaeda's 1rlba| Hosts

A nadiassa studont lion Wana, in South Waziiistan,
witnossod tho changos in his distiict altoi tho lall ol tho
Talilan. I watchod as woundod, disallod, and doloatod
Talilan lightois stiagglod into Wana and tho suiiounding
villagos, along with Aials, Chochons, and Uzloks. Evoiy
noining as I wont to school I could soo thon wandoiing
aiound town, alnost liko honoloss loggais. Littlo ly littlo,
tho tiilal oolo staitod holing thon, giving thon lood."

Littlo is known alout how tho loioign lightois cano to lo
hostod ly local tiilosnon and nilitants in tho tiilal aioas
ol Pakistan. Sono accounts, liko tho ono alovo, indicato
that tho iolocation to Pakistan was ly no noans snooth
and that tho loioign guosts" woio not guaiantood sanctuaiy
in tho lacos thoy cano to. Instoad, thoy had to ioly on tho
chaiity ol tho local oulation, whilo giadually ostallishing
tios with local tiilal loadois. Il this is indood tho caso, it
noans that tho iolationshi with locals was dotoininod ly
googiahy, iathoi than ly oxisting tios and notwoiks. Sinco
Waziiistan was on ono ol tho nain withdiawal ioutos ol tho
Aials lion Alghanistan, it also locano tho laco whoio
loioignois would ostallish tios with local tiilos.

Howovoi,
othoi nilitants nay havo iolocatod to Waziiistan locauso
thoy alioady had tios with local tiilal loadois thoio, dating
lack to tho oiiod loloio zooi.

1he vazir 1ribes

Tho stoiy ol Nok Muhannad, in aiticulai, soons to
illustiato that thoio woio indood histoiical tios lotwoon
loioign lightois and tho Pakistani tiilosnon who hostod
thon altoi zooi. Nok Muhannod, an Ahnadzai Wazii
lion South Waziiistan, was ono ol tho liist tiilosnon to
host loioign nilitants in Waziiistan altoi thoii withdiawal
in zooizooz. Accoiding to iihadist souicos, Nok
Muhannod ioinod tho Talilan iogino in Alghanistan in
tho iooos and lought alongsido Alghan and loioign lightois
against tho Noithoin Allianco aiound Kalul. Duiing this
oxoiionco, ho loliiondod sovoial ol tho Aial nilitants in
tho aioa. Altoi tho lall ol tho Talilan, ho wont lack to
Waziiistan and, accoiding to ono unconliinod account,
oisonally ovoisaw tho Aials` llight lion Alghanistan to
noio socuio aioas.

Anothoi account says that onco in

South Waziiistan, ho gavo tho Aials lacos to tiain and
accoss to woaons and othoi sulios," and in tho siing ol
zoo ho locano involvod in cooidinating cioss-loidoi
attacks with tho Aial connandois.
o


Anothoi Wazii tiilosnan, Mullah Nazii, shaios a sinilai
lackgiound, although littlo is known ol his oxact tios with
Aials iioi to zooi. Ho was a nadiassa studont in Wana
who ioinod tho Talilan in Alghanistan in ioo, and ho thon
lought in its ianks loi sovoial yoais. Altoi tho U.S.-lod
invasion ol Alghanistan, ho iotuinod to South Waziiistan
and soon locano involvod in cioss-loidoi attacks against
U.S. lasos in Alghanistan.
;
Ho was latoi aointod Talilan
chiol loi tho Wazii tiilos in South Waziiistan, indicativo ol
his continuod closo tios with tho Alghan Talilan.

Tho natuio ol tho oisonal tios lotwoon tho Wazii tiilal
loadois and Aial nilitants loloio zooi ionains oaquo.
Howovoi, tho accounts ol Nok Muhannad and Mullah
Nazii illustiato that tho loioign lightois and tho tiilosnon



nw \&c\ oun\ron counrros&.nw\&c\.nr
v\c o

who initially suoitod thon in Waziiistan woio tiod
togothoi ly a shaiod uioso, nanoly a dosiio to wago iihad
in suoit ol tho Talilan in Alghanistan.


Tho stoiios ol Nok Muhannad and Mullah Nazii aio ly no
noans uniquo. Rooitodly, thousands ol tiilosnon lion
FATA lought in Alghanistan loi shoitoi oi longoi oiiods,
loth in tho Alghan-Soviot wai in tho io8os and undoi tho
Talilan novonont lion ioo thiough zooi. Tho Talilan
continuod to wolcono tho contiilution ol tiilal allios altoi
loing doosod in zooi. Accoiding to ono souico, tho
Talilan shuia lod ly Mullah Baiadai woikod activoly to
onlist tiilal suoit lion tho Pakistani sido lion tho oaily
stagos ol tho insuigoncy.
8


Tho tiilos in FATA havo a contuiy-long tiadition ol
suoiting violont uiisings in Alghanistan oi Pakistan,
osocially whon ioligious oisonalitios havo callod loi iihad
against loioign occuiois.
o
This aiticulai local contoxt
nado FATA a iocotivo onviionnont loi loioign lightois
who cano to tho aioa altoi zooi, and who woio intont on
suoiting tho wai in Alghanistan lion tho voiy loginning.
Diioct, oisonal tios lotwoon tiilal loadois and Aials nay
havo layod a loss inoitant iolo. This loconos cloaioi
Mullah Nazii, contoi {{ STRDEL{AFP{Gotty Inagos
whon looking at tho allianco that cano into laco lotwoon
al-Qaoda and Baitullah Mohsud.

1he Mehsud 1ribes

Altoi tho assassination ol Nok Muhannod in zoo, tho
Mohsud tiilo cano to doninato nuch ol South Waziiistan,
iinaiily thiough tho loadoishi ol Baitullah Mohsud and
his lollow tiilosnan, Aldullah Mohsud. Accoiding to
iihadist souicos, tho Mohsud tiilo staitod hosting loioign
lightois aiound zoo, whon tho loioign lightois woio
loicod to loavo Nok Muhannod`s toiiitoiy duo to hoavy
clashos with Pakistani socuiity loicos. Accoiding to al-
Yazid, Altoi |tho loioign lightois`| oxit lion tho Ashkay
and Wana iogion |ol Nok Muhannod`s Wazii tiilo|, thoy
wont with tho aioval and wolcono ol Enii Baitullah to
tho Mohsud tiilos."
o
Al-Yazid doos not socily oxactly who
tho loioign liothois" who sottlod with Mohsud woio, lut
thoy includod at loast Uzloks lion tho IMU and iolally
Aials.
i
Howovoi, as tho Pakistan Ainy`s ooiation in
South Waziiistan continuod thioughout zoo, tho Aials
woio said to havo llod to Noith Waziiistan, to avoid
conliontation with tho Pakistan Ainy.
z
Thoy wantod to
iotain thoii locus on lighting tho ioal onony, nanoly tho
U.S. loicos in Alghanistan. Many Uzloks, on tho othoi
hand, stayod on in South Waziiistan to dolond local tiilos
against tho Pakistan Ainy`s incuisions.

Littlo is known alout Baitullah Mohsud`s iovious tios to
tho Talilan iogino, oi to tho Aials. Al-Yazid indicatod that
Mohsud ioinod tho Talilan novonont oaily on" altoi tho
Islanic Eniiato ol Alghanistan was ostallishod, and
assistod tho giou in its wai against its ononios in noithoin
Alghanistan.

Anothoi souico statod that duiing tho ioign

ol tho Talilan iogino, Mohsud . . . lioquontly wont to
Alghanistan as a voluntooi to ioin in tho Talilan's
onloiconont ol shaiia and to olloi his soivicos."

Thoio is
iolally sono tiuth to this. Altoi zooi, Mohsud was said to
havo closo tios with tho Alghan Talilan novonont and
allogodly was aointod as Mullah Onai`s social
ioiosontativo" loi tho Mohsud tiilo in Waziiistan.
o




nw \&c\ oun\ron counrros&.nw\&c\.nr
v\c

Mohsud hinsoll statod in an intoiviow with al-Jazooia in
zoo8 that ho had yot to noot oithoi lin Ladon oi al-
Zawahiii. Howovoi, ho did clain to havo had a stiong
iolationshi" with al-Zaiqawi loloio tho lattoi wont to Iiaq
sonotino in zooizooz.
;
Al-Zawahiii, who soko at
longth alout Mohsud altoi tho lattoi`s doath in zooo, did
not nontion any iovious tios lotwoon Mohsud and Aial
nilitants. Instoad, ho dosciilod Mohsud as a nadiassa
studont who intoiiutod his studios to ioin tho iihad altoi
tho U.S. invasion ol Alghanistan in zooi. Al-Zawahiii
cioditod hin with gathoiing a laigo giou ol lollowois to
light tho Ciusadois and thoii aostato agonts in
Alghanistan and Pakistan," and loi woiking activoly loi tho
unity ol Pakistani nuiahodin. Ho also ioloiiod to Mohsud's
iolo in tho ostallishnont in zoo; ol tho Tohiik-i-Talilan
Pakistan (TTP, an unliolla oiganization loi Pakistani
nilitant gious, and said that a good iolationshi was
ostallishod lotwoon tho TTP and loioign nuiahodin.
8
Tho
iolationshi lotwoon Mohsud and al-Qaoda that onoigod
lion zoo onwaid was lasod on a connon causo and
idoology, noio than long-standing oisonal liiondshis.

Tho caso ol Aldullah Mohsud nay lo slightly dilloiont,
though tho accuiacy ol tho souicos is haid to voiily. An
unconliinod account ol Aldullah Mohsud`s lilo statos that
ho staitod his nilitant caiooi as a tiainoo in a can iun ly
Enii Khattal (tho Saudi-loin Chochon iolol loadoi in
Kunduz iovinco in Alghanistan in tho oaily iooos,
togothoi with Taiiks, Aials, and sono Alghans.
o
In ioo
ho ioinod tho Talilan novonont, and iight loloio
Sotonloi ii, zooi, ho was said to havo lought with sono
Aial lightois in Noithoin Alghanistan. Accoiding to tho
liogiahy, ho dovolood a doo iosoct loi tho Aials and
tho othoi loioign lightois in Alghanistan duiing this oiiod.
In zooizoo ho was iniisonod in Guantanano, whoio
ho aaiontly continuod to dovolo iolations with lollow
Aial innatos. Littlo is known alout his actual iolationshi
to loioign lightois in South Waziiistan altoi ho iotuinod
thoio in zoo, and until his doath in July zoo;. Duo to a
oisonal conllict with Baitullah Mohsud, ho giadually
locano isolatod lion tho Mohsud tiilo, and ho allogodly
wont to Noith Waziiistan instoad to coooiato diioctly with
tho Alghan Talilan. Again, tho liogiahy soons to dosciilo
an individual who was connittod to suoiting tho Talilan
in Alghanistan, and who had dovolood an adniiation and
iosoct (lut not nocossaiily diioct oisonal tios with tho
Aials and othoi loioign nilitants who sottlod in Waziiistan
altoi zooi.

Bonds oF Matrimony

In addition to histoiical and idoological tios, tho stiatogy"
ol naiiying into local Pashtun tiilos is anothoi, connon
oxlanation ol why al-Qaoda nanagod to ostallish a
sanctuaiy in FATA and adioining aioas altoi zooi.
o

Dosito this loing a oulai clain, thoio aio low studios
that can toll us how widosioad tho honononon actually
has loon.

Al-Qaoda`s own souicos nay givo us sono hints. Tho
authoi oxaninod io liogiahios ol loioign nilitants
(oxcluding Alghan and Pakistani-loin individuals who
woio killod in Alghanistan oi Pakistan lotwoon zooz and
zooo.
i
Tho souicos havo sono linitations. Ol tho io
liogiahios, only i stato that tho individual was naiiiod,
whilo tho iost (aiound ;o oicont contain no inloination
on tho individual`s naiital status. This could noan oithoi
that ho was unnaiiiod oi that thoio was not sulliciont
inloination to toll. It can lo assunod, thoioloio, that tho
actual liguios nay lo sonowhat highoi than thoso givon
hoio.

Tho honononon ol naiiiago into tiilos is
not unconnon.

Ol thoso io individuals, oight woio iooitod to havo
naiiiod Pashtun oi Pakistani wonon, and at loast livo ol
thoso naiiiagos took laco altoi zooi. Although tho
nunlois aio snall and iolally inconloto, thoy indicato
that tho honononon ol naiiiago into tiilos is not



nw \&c\ oun\ron counrros&.nw\&c\.nr
v\c z

unconnon: At loast 8 oicont ol tho loioign nilitants
dosciilod in thoso liogiahios woio iosunally tiod to
Alghan oi Pakistani lanilios thiough intoinaiiiago.

Tho liogiahios also indicato that naiiiago into Alghan oi
Pakistani tiilos oi lanilios aoais to havo loon nuch loss
connon loloio zooi. Ol i naiiiagos taking laco loloio
zooi, only ono was to an Alghan, whilo tho naioiity ol
naiiiagos woio to Aial wonon (soo Figuio z. This nay lo
asciilod to a gioatoi nolility ol tho loioign lightois in this
oiiod. Many ol tho naiiiagos took laco whilo tho lightois
iosidod in tho Aial woild oi Contial Asia. As loi thoso who
iosidod in Alghanistan undoi tho Talilan iogino (iooo
zooi, nany iolally took thoii lanilios with thon, as this
was iolativoly connon loloio zooi. This soons to lo
conliinod ly gonoial accounts ol tho al-Qaoda notwoik`s
histoiy in Alghanistan. Maiiiago ol Aials into Alghan
lanilios doos not soon to havo loon a widosioad
honononon, at loast not anong thoso who nigiatod to
Alghanistan undoi tho Talilan iogino. It night havo loon
noio connon anong thoso who sottlod in Alghanistan
altoi tho Soviot-Alghan wai (whilo al-Qaoda`s hoadquaitois
novod to Sudan in this oiiod, sono nilitants also
ionainod in Alghanistan oi Pakistan. Howovoi, this giou
is undoiioiosontod in tho liogiahios ioviowod alovo.

Figuio z: Maiiiagos ol loioign lightois who woio killod in
Alghanistan oi Pakistan altoi zooi: Yoai ol naiiiago and wilo's
countiy ol oiigin
z


Altoi zooi, tho conditions loi lanily lilo locano nuch
noio iostiictod and dillicult, and this nay oxlain why a
highoi iooition ol loioign lightois aoai to havo
naiiiod Alghan and Pakistani wonon.

Whilo naiiiago into local tiilos indood soons to havo takon
laco, it is uncloai whothoi this has actually locono a
doliloiato stiatogy ol al-Qaoda sinco zooi. Tho nost high-
ianking al-Qaoda nonloi allogod to havo naiiiod into a
local tiilo is al-Zawahiii, who naiiiod a wonan lion tho
Mohnand tiilo in Baiaui altoi zooi. In Baiaui, al-Zawahiii
is said to havo loon iotoctod ly tho local Talilan loadoi
and Mohnand tiilosnan Maulana Faqii Muhannad.

Tho al-Qaoda connandoi Alu Ikhlas al-Misii, who
ooiatod in Kunai iovinco loi nany yoais, has also loon
dosciilod as woll ontionchod in tho local connunity.
Accoiding to tho BBC, ho is ono ol nany ol Bin Ladon's
Aial lightois who naiiiod a local wonan, soaks tho
languago and onioys tho iotoction ol tho local tiilos
against all outsidois."

Whilo naiiiago into local tiilos indood soons
to havo takon laco, it is uncloai whothoi this
has actually locono a doliloiato stiatogy ol al-
Qaoda sinco zooi.

Anocdotal ovidonco suggosts, at loast, that intoinaiiiago
nay havo stiongthonod tho tios lotwoon loioign and local
nilitants, and in sono casos, socuiod thon iotoction
undoi tiilal laws. Howovoi, in nany casos it is haid to say
whothoi intoinaiiiagos aio noioly an oxiossion ol, iathoi
than a causo ol, stiong iolationshis lotwoon al-Qaoda
nilitants and thoii local hosts.

Ioined by a Common Cause . . . and U.S. Dollars?

Tho alovo accounts oxlain tho iolationshis lotwoon
Aials and tiilal loadois in South Waziiistan altoi zooi.



nw \&c\ oun\ron counrros&.nw\&c\.nr
v\c

Tho study is only aitial, yot idontilios a shaiod dosiio to
wago iihad in suoit ol tho Talilan in Alghanistan altoi
zooi. Poisonal tios lotwoon tiilal nilitants in FATA and
Aials iolally also oxistod iioi to zooi, lut thoio is voiy
littlo voiiliallo inloination on thoso tios.

Thoio is a host ol ioasons why coitain tiilal constituoncios
in tho FATA docidod to suoit oi ooso tho iosonco ol
loioign lightois in thoii aioa altoi zooi. It has loon aiguod,
loi oxanlo, that tho tiilal loadois who hostod al-Qaoda and
Uzloks in FATA woio notivatod ly nonotaiy incontivos
and tho iosoct ol using loioign lightois to loost thoii
own nilitaiy standing. A iouinalistic souico statod in zoo
that Nok Muhannad`s notivation loi hosting tho loioign
lightois was lasod on tho nonotaiy and natoiial lonolit
tho Aials would givo hin.

Sono ol tho loioign nilitants

who tiainod in FATA altoi zooi also iooitod that thoy had
to ay tho local nilitants iolativoly laigo suns ol nonoy in
oidoi to gain accoss to tiansoitation, lodging, lood, and
aianilitaiy tiaining.
o
Yot, nonotaiy incontivos alono
cannot oxlain why sono ol tho Wazii and Mohsud
tiilosnon dosciilod alovo docidod not only to suoit
loioign lightois in thoii aioa, lut also to tako an activo iolo
in tho lighting in Alghanistan altoi zooi. This act aoais
to lo notivatod noio ly idoological and ioligious ioasons
than ly uioly natoiial incontivos.

In tho allianco lotwoon loioign lightois and
local nilitants in FATA, connon causo
soons a noio inoitant notivation than U.S.
dollais.

Thoio havo also loon conllicts lotwoon loioign nilitants
and thoii tiilal hosts in Waziiistan. Thoso conllicts tyically
tako laco at a local lovol, lotwoon sulclans oi villagos
iathoi than lotwoon laigo tiilal coalitions. Conllicts nay
aiiso duo to a nunloi ol ioasons, including intoinal tiilal
squalllos and oisonality clashos. Tho lohavioi ol tho
loioign guosts thonsolvos nay also lay a iolo. In zooo, a
coalition ol Wazii tiilosnon callod loi tho oviction ol
Contial Asian nilitants lion Waziiistan. Tho conllict
aoaiod to lo iootod in tho Contial Asians` intoiloionco
in tho local allaiis ol tho iogion," iathoi than aiising lion
lioad-lasod local oosition to all loioign nilitants in tho
aioa.
;
Whilo tho Wazii tiilosnon callod loi tho oviction ol
Contial Asians, thoy continuod to naintain a good
iolationshi with tho Aials, who had nanagod to avoid
noddling in local tiilal allaiis.
8
Hoio iolally lios sono ol
al-Qaoda`s koy to succoss in ostallishing a sanctuaiy in tho
aioa altoi zooi.

In tho allianco lotwoon loioign lightois and local nilitants
in FATA, connon causo soons a noio inoitant
notivation than U.S. dollais. Howovoi, thoio aio oxcotions
whoio individuals nay lo notivatod noio ly iagnatic
ioasons, and tho suoit is also not unconditional. In
thooiy, thoioloio, it would lo ossillo to diivo a wodgo
lotwoon loioign lightois and thoii local allios. Howovoi,
givon tho localizod natuio ol thoso alliancos, this would lo
an oxtionoly challonging task. Foi ono thing, oxoiionco
has shown that oaco agioononts lotwoon tho Pakistani
govoinnont and tiilal loadois havo had littlo inact on
thoii iolationshi with loioign lightois. And ovon il ono
succoods in oisuading a tiilal laction to alandon tho
loioign lightois in his aioa, thoy can sinly novo to a
dilloiont villago in tho sano aioa. Dosito highly ullicizod
attonts ly tiilal loadois thonsolvos to ovict Contial Asian
nilitants in zooozoo;, thoy ionain alivo and activo
acioss Waziiistan today. This has loon dononstiatod, loi
oxanlo, in iocont vidoo lootago showing IMU nonlois
lighting loi Mohsud`s ainy in South Waziiistan.
o
It
soons, indood, that tho loioign lightois havo cono to FATA
to stay.

Conc|uslon

Al-Qaoda`s iosonco in tho Talilan`s ianks is sanctionod ly
tho Talilan loadoishi, nainly locauso tho Aials do not
oso a thioat to Mullah Onai`s olitical loadoishi. On tho



nw \&c\ oun\ron counrros&.nw\&c\.nr
v\c

tactical lovol thoio is anlivalonco towaid loioignois," lut
al-Qaoda soons to havo stoadily oxandod its activitios in
Alghanistan. To do this, al-Qaoda aoais to havo ioliod
nainly on its histoiical and oisonal notwoiks with
nilitants in southoastoin and oastoin Alghanistantho
Haqqanis, tho Yunus Khalis laction, Salali gious in
Kunai, and Hizl-o-Islani (HIG olononts. Al-Qaoda`s
involvonont in tho Talilan insuigoncy is localizod,
iollocting tho liagnontod natuio ol tho insuigont
novonont itsoll.

This inlios that al-Qaoda would lo allo to ooiato in
Alghanistan with oi without tho suoit ol tho Quotta
Shuia. Howovoi, as long as NATO loicos aio iosont in
Alghanistan, thoio is littlo incontivo loi tho Talilan
loadoishi to alandon al-Qaoda. Bosidos, this night
iooaidizo tho unity ol tho insuigont novonont, as al-
Qaoda ionains oulai with sono ol tho Talilan`s oastoin
Alghan lactions.

At tho nonont, Gulluddin Hoknatyai is noio likoly to
sovoi his tios with al-Qaoda thiough a owoi-shaiing
agioonont with tho Alghan govoinnont, locauso ho is in a
woak osition iolativo to tho Talilan. This would not
nocossaiily alloct tho coooiation lotwoon al-Qaoda and
HIG olononts at a tactical lovol. Il tho local HIG olononts
dosiio to continuo tho light, thoy nay sinly switch sidos
and ioin tho Talilan`s caiavan, as haonod in tho iooos
whon tho Talilan novonont was on tho iiso.

In tho lutuio, al-Qaoda`s alliancos with local nilitant gious
in Alghanistan and Pakistan nay dovolo in ono ol two
ossillo diioctions. Tho al-Qaoda nilitants could dissolvo
into tho local nilitant onviionnont and adat to tho agonda
ol local gious. This soons today to havo haonod with
olononts ol tho IMU, who aoai to havo locono ait ol
Mohsud`s tiilal nilitia in South Waziiistan.
oo
Il such a
dovolonont takos laco, al-Qaoda would giadually locono
iiiolovant as an intoinational toiioiist oiganization.

Altoinativoly, and ol noio concoin, al-Qaoda could succood
in insoiting its idoology into tho local nilitant onviionnont.
Al-Qaoda`s allianco with tho lato Baitullah Mohsud and tho
TTP nay lo soon as a dovolonont in this diioction. (In
zoo8, Mohsud was linkod to a toiioiist lot in Sain, loi
which ho ullicly clainod iosonsilility. Il this
dovolonont continuos, it will nako tho Alghanistan-
Pakistan iogion a hul loi anti-Anoiican Islanist nilitancy
loi yoais to cono. This is tho iinaiy ioason why tho
Unitod Statos and its allios should continuo tho olloit to
luild stallo ioginos in tho iogion.


-----



i Soo, loi oxanlo, Thonas Joscolyn and Bill Roggio, Analysis: Al Qaoda is tho ti ol
tho iihadist soai," Tho Long Wai Jouinal, Octoloi 8, zooo,
htt:{{www.longwaiiouinal.oig{aichivos{zooo{io{analysisalqaodais.h:
Stohon M. Walt, Tho 'salo havon` nyth," Foioign Policy, August i8, zooo,
htt:{{walt.loioignolicy.con{osts{zooo{o8{i8{thosalohavonnyth.
z Sono iocont aiticlos includo: Joiony Binnio and Joanna Wiight, "Conllict ol
intoiost: Tho Talilan`s iolationshi with al-Qaoda," Jano`s Intolligonco Roviow zz, no.
i (Januaiy zoio: Bailaia Sudo, Al-Qaoda Contial: An assossnont ol tho thioat osod
ly tho toiioiist giou hoadquaitoiod on tho Alghanistan-Pakistan loidoi,"
Countoitoiioiisn Stiatogy Initiativo Policy Paoi, Now Anoiica Foundation
(Doconloi zooo: Don Rassloi, Socuiing Sanctuaiy: Undoistanding Al-Qaoda`s
stiatogy in Pakistan," in Al-Qaoda`s sonioi loadoishi (AQSL," Jano`s Stiatogic
Advisoiy Soivicos (Novonloi zooo: Potoi Boigon, Tho Fiont: Tho Talilan-Al Qaoda
noigoi," Now Roullic, Octoloi io, zooo, htt:{{www.tni.con: Sani Yousalzai and
Ron Moioau, Tho Talilan in Thoii Own Woids," Nowswook, Sotonloi zo, zooo.
Tho souicos havo loon accossod via al-Qaoda-alliliatod Wol sitos on tho Intoinot
and woio downloadod lotwoon zoo and tho iosont.
"A nooting lotwoon liothois," al-Sahal (zoo;.
Oon nooting with Shoikh Aynan al-Zawahiii, Pait z, al-Sahal (izo h.{zoo8.
o Intoiviow with Mullah Baiadai," al-Sunud (zoo8.
; Yousalzai and Moioau, Tho Talilan in thoii own woids."
8 Potoi Boigon, U.S. intolligonco liioling: Talilan incioasingly olloctivo," CNN, z
Januaiy zoio.
o Ilid.



nw \&c\ oun\ron counrros&.nw\&c\.nr

v\c

io Alu 'Ulayda al-Maqdisi, shuhada` li zanan al-ghuila," 88oo.
ii Don Rassloi, Socuiing sanctuaiy: Undoistanding Al-Qaoda`s stiatogy in Pakistan,"
in Al-Qaoda`s Sonioi Loadoishi (AQSL," Jano`s Stiatogic Advisoiy Soivicos (Nov
zooo: i.
iz Intoiviow with tho liold connandoi Ald al-Hadi al-Iiaqi, nay God iotoct hin,"
Al-Noda z8 July zooz (stoiod oloctionically ly authoi.
i Connandoi Alu al-Hasan. Jihad and Maityidon," al-Sahal (izo h.{zoo8,
downloadod via al-Ikhlas, www.al-okhlaas.not (accossod o July zoo8.
i Foi tho iolo ol Jalaluddin Haqqani: Soo Ahnod Rashid, Doscont into chaos: Tho
Unitod Statos and tho lailuio ol nation luilding in Pakistan, Alghanistan, and Contial
Asia (London: Viking Books, zoo8: oo. Foi tho iolo ol Yunus Khalis: Soo Phili
Snuckoi, Al Qaoda`s gioat oscao: Tho nilitaiy and tho nodia on toiioi`s tiail (Now
Dolhi: Manas Pullications, zoo.
i Rohan Gunaiatna and Andois Niolson, Al Qaoda in tho tiilal aioas ol Pakistan
and loyond," Studios in Conllict and Toiioiisn i, no.o (Sot zoo8:;8i;8z.
io Ilid., ;8z.
i; Alu al-Layth al-Lili, in liqa` la`d suqut talilan," audio lilo, downloadod via al-
Ikhlas, htt:{{www.alokhlaas.not{loiun{showthioad.h?t=izo;o (accossod z Fol
zoo8. An English tianslation can also lo lound at Maiio`s Cyloisaco Station,
htt:{{niolaca.cio.not{alu-laith.htnl (accossod ii Maich zoio.
i8 To al-Qaoda connandoi 'killod'," BBC, i Fol zoo8,
htt:{{nows.llc.co.uk{z{hi{southasia{;zzo8z.stn (accossod ii Maich zoio.
io Sani Yousalzai and Ron Moioau, Tho Talilan in thoii own woids," Nowswook,
zo Sot zooo, www.nowswook.con{id{zioz (accossod ii Maich zoio.
zo Anno Stonoison, 'Al-Qaoda`s loot soldiois`: A study ol tho liogiahios ol loioign
lightois killod in Alghanistan and Pakistan lotwoon zoozzooo," loithconing zoio.
Tho study is lasod on tho lollowing colloction ol liogiahios: Alu 'Ulayda al-
Maqdisi, shuhada` li zanan al-ghuila," Al-Faii Modia Contoi, accossod via al-Ekhlas
htt:{{www.alokhlaas.not{loiun{showthioad.h?t=izozz (z Foliuaiy zoo8
zi Guido Stoinloig Tho iotuin ol al-Qaoda," SWP Connonts zz (Doconloi zoo;
htt:{{www.sw-loilin.oig{on{connon{gotdocunont.h?assotid=oio (accossod
ii Maich zoio.
zz Yousalzai and Moioau, Tho Talilan in thoii own woids."
z Jaiiot Biachnan Rotaining iolovanco: Assossing Al-Qaoda`s gonoiational
ovolution," in Al-Qaoda`s sonioi loadoishi (AQSL," Jano`s Stiatogic Advisoiy
Soivicos (Novonloi zooo: z8.
z Intoiviow with Shoikh Alu al-Layth, ono ol tho loadois ol al-Qaoda in Khuiasan,"
al-Sahal (Ralia` al-Akhai iz8 h.{Aiil zoo;, downloadod via al-Fiidaws,
www.alliidaws.oig{vl (accossod o Aiil zoo;.

z Thoso includod al-Qaoda in tho Islanic Maghiol, Ansai al-Islan (Iiaq Young
Muiahidin Movonont (Sonalia, Nasoi Salahuddin Biigados (Palostino, Jaysh al-
Islan (Palostino, al-Faii Modia Contoi and Glolal Islanic Modia Fiont
zo Soo, loi oxanlo, tho liogiahy ol Alu Baki al-Iiaqi, in Alu 'Ulayda al-Maqdisi,
shuhada` li zanan al-ghuila," ooo.
z; Soo, loi oxanlo, tho liogiahios ol Ahnod al-Hassan Dawii (. z;z8, and
Aldallah Jan al-Alghani (. i;i;8, in Alu 'Ulayda al-Maqdisi, shuhada` li zanan
al-ghuila."
z8 Yousalzai and Moioau, Tho Talilan in thoii own woids."
zo This ioaganda includos: IJU`s wolsito Shohadot Zanani in Tuikish
(www.sohadotvakti.con, www.sohadotzanani.con and its associatod nodia
conany Elil Modya: IMU`s wolsito Fuiqon in Uzlok (www.luiqon.con and its
associatod nodia conany Jundullah Studios: and ETIM`s nodia wing Islan Awazi.
o Gunaiatna and Niolson, Al Qaoda in tho tiilal aioas ol Pakistan and loyond,"
;8.
i Einai Wigon, Islanic Jihad Union: al-Qaoda's koy to tho Tuikic woild?" FFI
Rooit zooo{ooo8;,
htt:{{www.nil.no{nultinodia{aichivo{ooizz{ooo8;izzoooa.dl (accossod i
Maich zoio.
z Ilid.
Yousalzai and Moioau, Tho Talilan in thoii own woids."
Accoiding to a study ol tho liogiahios ol izo loioign lightois who woio killod in
Alghanistan oi Pakistan in zoozzooo, tho nost connon withdiawal iouto out ol
Alghanistan altoi o{ii wont lion KandahaiKhostBoinal and thon into South
Waziiistan. Stonoison, Al-Qaoda`s loot soldiois."
Alu 'Ulayda al-Maqdisi, shuhada` li zanan al-ghuila," zzo.
o Yousalzai and Moioau Tho Talilan in thoii own woids"
; Intoiviow with Mullah Nazii Ahnod" al-Sahal (zooo.
8 Mustala Hanid, ikhtital nulla Baiadai: 'analiyya istikhlaiiyya naiiha tatahawwal
ila lashal istiatiii," (in Aialic Mawqi`a adal al-nataiid,
htt:{{nala.naktoolllog.con{;o{kidnaing-nullah-loiadoi-nostala-hanod{
(accossod ii Maich zoio

o Mustala Alu al-Yazid, " Condoloncos and Congiatulations to tho Islanic Unnah
loi tho Maityidon ol tho Enii, Baitullah Mohsud, May Allah havo Moicy on Hin,"
Al-Sahal, Sotonloi zooo.
i Baitullah Mohsud: Who is ho?" Dawn, i Maich zooo,
www.dawn.con{ws{wcn{connoct{dawn-contont-
liliaiy{dawn{nows{akistan{laitullah-nohsud-who-is-ho-ss (accossod zz Foliuaiy
zoio.



nw \&c\ oun\ron counrros&.nw\&c\.nr

v\c o

z Sadia Sulainan and Syod Adnan Ali Shah Bukhaii, Haliz Gul Bahadui: A iolilo
ol tho loadoi ol tho Noith Waziiistan Talilan," Toiioiisn Monitoi ;, no.o (io Aiil
zooo.
Gunaiatna and Niolson Al Qaoda in tho tiilal aioas ol Pakistan and loyond," ;8;.
Mustala Alu al-Yazid, Condoloncos and congiatulations to tho Islanic Unnah
loi tho naityidon ol tho Enii, Baitullah Mohsud, May Allah havo noicy on hin,"
Al-Sahal (Sotonloi zooo.
Sohail Aldul Nasii, Baitullah Mohsud: South Waziiistan's unollicial Anii,"
Toiioiisn Focus , no.zo (o July zooo,
www.ianostown.oig{iogians{gta{singlo{?txttnows|ttnows|=8zo&txttnows|lackP
id|= zo&nocacho=i (accossod zz Foliuaiy zoio.
o Ilid.
; Ahnod Zaidan, Intoiviow ol tho Day," al-Jazooia z Jan zoo8, downloadod via al-
Ikhlas, www.okhlaas.oig{loiun (accossod z8 Jan zoo8.
8 Aynan al-Zawahiii, Eulogy loi tho nodol young Enii, tho Maityi, Baitullah
Mohsud, May Allah havo noicy on hin," Al-Sahal (Sotonloi zooo.
o Kalul. Guantanano. Waziiistan. Stos on tho Way ol Jihad loi tho Maityi
Aldullah Mohsud," Ma`aiik Islanic Notwoik, zi Maich zooo, htt:{{n-
l.con{loiun{showthioad.h?t=iz (accossod Foliuaiy zoio.
o Soo, loi oxanlo, Bailaia Sudo, Al-Qaoda Contial: An assossnont ol tho thioat
osod ly tho toiioiist giou hoadquaitoiod on tho Alghanistan-Pakistan loidoi,"

Countoitoiioiisn Stiatogy Initiativo Policy Paoi, Now Anoiica Foundation
(Doconloi zooo.
i Stonoison Al-Qaoda`s loot soldiois."
z Tho total nunloi ol individuals is i, whilo tho total nunloi ol naiiiagos is ,
locauso two individuals woio iooitod to lo naiiiod twico.
Gunaiatna and Niolson Al Qaoda in tho tiilal aioas ol Pakistan and loyond," ;;o.
Paul Danahai Alghanistan livo yoais altoi o{ii," BBC, ii Sotonloi zooo,
htt:{{nows.llc.co.uk{z{hi{southasia{ooo.stn (accossod z Fol zoio.
M. Ilyas Khan, Piolilo ol Nok Mohannad," Dawn, io Juno zoo,
htt:{{www.dawn.con{zoo{oo{io{latost.htn (accossod ii Maich zoio.
o Paul Ciuickshank Tho nilitant iolino: Botwoon tho Alghanistan-Pakistan
loidoi iogion and tho Wost," Now Anoiica Foundation, Foliuaiy zoio,
htt:{{countoitoiioiisn.nowanoiica.not{sitos{nowanoiica.not{
lilos{olicydocs{ciuickshank.dl (accossod ii Maich zoio: i.
; Sulainan and Bukhaii, Haliz Gul Bahadui."
8 Ilid.
o "Soldiois ol Allah z," Jundullah Studio (Januaiy zoio, downloadod via Ansai al-
Jihad Notwoik, htt:{{as-ansai.con{vl (accossod io Januaiy zoio.
oo Ilid.






nw \&c\ oun\ron counrros&.nw\&c\.nr
v\c ;















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