411.

Thc lc sc mnh qun s Trung Quc

ng bi anhbasam on 24/03/2011

Thc lc sc mnh qun s Trung Quc

Mnh Kim Ngy 24-3-2011

Bi 1: Hin i ha qun s
Trung Quc ngy nay, khng nh thi ng Tiu Bnh vi phng chm Thao quang dng hi (n mnh khng l thc lc), sn sng ph din sc mnh qun s v thm ch khng che y tham vng tranh b vng vi M. S ph by nhng con tu chin mang tnh e da bo v lun im ng li b ca h ti bin ng l mt c th. Tuy nhin, liu qun s Trung Quc tht s mnh hc lm anh siu cng nh c miu t v mong mun, hay tt c ch l nhng cng iu thi qu, vi mc ch g ; v l mc ch g? Tn thi k quc gia qun s chin lc phng chm th hin iu g? Trung Quc khin gii chc qun s phng Ty bt ng khi em khoe hn 25 mu my bay khng ngi li (UAV) ti cuc trin lm hng khng Chu Hi (Qung ng) gia thng 11-2010 (1). Mt s mu UAV th h mi c th bn tn la v c mt mu (WJ-600) hot ng bng ng c phn lc c ngha v l thuyt, c th bay nhanh hn cc loi UAV Predator v Reaper (chy bng cnh qut) m qun i M s dng ti Iraq, Afghanistan v Pakistan. Cha ht, cui thng 12-2010, lot tin r r cho thy Trung Quc ch to thnh cng my bay tng hnh th h th t J-20 (vi ngun khc ghi th h th nm). Mt tun sau khi nhng bc nh J-20 l ln mng, Ph c David Dorsett (gim c Cc tnh bo hi qun Hoa K) di by lo ngi rng Trung Quc tin nhanh trong kh nng hin i ha qun s v rng M lu nay nh gi thp sc mnh Trung Quc (nm 2009, B trng quc phng M Robert Gates tng nhn nh, Trung Quc khng th c my bay th h th nm, tng ng M, vo trc nm 2020). Ngoi J-20, Trung Quc ang sa li mt hng khng mu hm hn 50.000 tn (chic Varyag mua ca Ukraine vi gi 20 triu USD vo nm 1998) v ln k hoch ng mi hai chic 50.000 tn na ti mt nh my Thng Hi (chic u tin d kin h thy trc nm 2014 v cc chic khc vo trc nm 2020). V kho v kh ht nhn, gii chuyn gia nh gi Trung Quc c khng di 160 u n ht nhn, c lp trong tnh trng sn sng tc chin vo cc dn phng di ng v tu ngm t nm 2008 (2). S pht trin qun s Trung Quc song hnh vi vic trin khai hi qun ti nhiu vng bin chin lc, c bit nhng ni giu ti nguyn v nm trong khu vc tranh

chp (hi qun Trung Quc c u t ng k, chim hn 1/3 ngn sch quc phng). Cui thng 3-2010, c Robert F. Willard, tng t lnh B ch huy Thi Bnh Dng Hoa K, bo co Quc hi M rng s trin khai hi qun Trung Quc hin mc ng ngi (3). Trung Quc cng th nghim tn la n o tm xa DF21/CSS-5 vi kh nng trit h hng khng mu hm (4), v rng s hin i ha qun s Trung Quc c thit k thch thc s t do hnh ng ca chng ta khu vc tng Willard ni. V chuyn Vnh Yalong ( Long loan) ti o Hi Nam, vi b ngoi l trung tm ngh mt nm sao nhng ngm bn di l mt cn c tu ngm, nay chng cn l mt b mt qun s. Ph t lnh Hm i bin ng ca Trung Quc, Trng Hoa Thn, chng d dt khi ni vi chin lc hi qun ang thay i, chng ta ang i t vic bo v b bin n bo v vng bin. Tin trnh hin i ha qun s Trung Quc ni chung c th hin trong k hoch Tn thi k quc gia qun s chin lc phng chm, c tung ra khong nm 1993, phn nh nhng nh hng, tc ng v kh nng thch ng i ph vi nhng s kin t cuc chin Vng Vnh nm 1991 v s sp Lin X, v c cp nht lin tc theo tnh hnh tng thi k. Nm 2003, B chnh tr Trung Quc chun y thm khi nim Tam chng chin php (Ba loi chin php) gm chin tranh tm l, chin tranh thng tin v chin tranh php l (s dng cng c php l tranh chp cc vn lin quan ch quyn bin o), nh c k trong Bo co v pht trin qun s Trung Quc ca B quc phng Hoa K trnh Quc hi nm 2010 (5). M bt u rt trc sc mnh qun s Trung Quc? Trong ngun (5), bo co Lu nm gc cho bit, Trung Quc hin c chng trnh tn la hnh trnh v tn la n o t i khng hot ng mnh nht th gii, vi nhng nghin cu v th nghim lin tc (chng hn tn la DH-10, hoc YJ-62 c trang b cho khu trc hm Luyang II, tc L Dng II). Tn la lin lc a DF-31A vi tm xa 11.200km c th bn n nhiu khu vc thuc M. n thng 12-2009, qun i Trung Quc trin khai t 1.050-1.150 tn la n o tm ngn CSS-6 v CSS-7 hng n i Loan. V hi qun, Trung Quc hin c lc lng vi dn tu chin cng tu ngm hng hu nht chu v ng nh th gii-ch sau M (vi khong 75 tu chin, hn 60 tu ngm, 55 thit hm li nc v 85 tim kch c c trang b tn la). V khng qun, Trung Quc c 490 chin u c Vic hin i ha qun s cng th hin vic Trung Quc u t cho i ng chin binh o vi kh nng tn cng cc mng my tnh ton cu (thng 3-2009, gii nghin cu Canada pht hin mt h thng gin ip trc tuyn tinh vi t ti Hoa lc tng t chc cc chin dch thm nhp vo h thng my tnh ca Chnh ph n cng nh nhiu chnh ph th gii; hn 1.300 my tnh ti 103 quc gia b t nhp c ghi nhn). Ngy 4-3-2010, Bc Kinh cho bit ngn sch cho quc phng Trung Quc tng 7,5% ln 78,6 t USD (gii chuyn gia quc phng M tin rng con s thc c th khong gp i). Trong thc t, phn tch d liu ti chnh 2000-2009 cho thy ngn sch Trung Quc tht ra tng trung bnh 11,8%, so vi t l tng 9,6% ca GDP trong cng thi gian Cui nm 2010, James Kraska nguyn c vn chnh sch ca gim c Cc hoch nh chnh sch chin lc thuc B tng tham mu lc qun Hoa K v hin l gio s lut

i hc Chin tranh Hi qun M hnh dung rng, vo nm 2015, s thng tr hng thp nin ca M v kh nng hi chin c th kt thc bng v chic hng khng mu hm tr gi 9 t USD USS George Washington (chy bng ht nhn) b Trung Quc nh chm ti bin ng! S kin khng ch cho thy bc tranh thay i cn cn v sc mnh hi qun ti chu m cn a n mt giai on mi v trt t quc t mi trong Bc Kinh bt u ni ln thay th M (6). a ra mt s kin kh c kh nng xy ra, James Kraska mun nhn mnh rng Trung Quc hon ton c th trit h M trong cc cuc hi chin trong tng lai gn, bi vi nhiu thp nin u t sau Chin tranh lnh, Trung Quc ngy cng tin gn M v nng lc hi qun v thm ch qua mt mt s lnh vc chng hn xy dng lc lng tu ngm chy in v du diesel. Cn nhc li, thng 10-2006, mt tu ngm chy bng diesel, Type 039 (Song class), ca Trung Quc ln l gn nh ngay trc mi hng khng mu hm USS Kitty Hawk ri tri ln cch ch bn dm m n lc hi qun M mi bt u bit! (Lu nm gc khng xc nhn chnh thc thng tin trn). Trong cc bo co trnh Quc hi v Nh trng cng nh trn nhng trang nht bo ch M, ngi ta cn thy nhiu kin bo ng , lin tc, vi mt dy c, t nhng gng mt tn tui tng t James Kraska. Trong mt bi vit (7), cy bt lo lng ngi M gc Do Thi Robert D. Kaplan (m vo nm 2009 c B trng quc phng Robert Gates mi vo Hi ng chnh sch quc phng Hoa K) nhn mnh vic M b lng khu vc bin ng khin Trung Quc c c hi tri dy, rng 66 chic tu ngm ca Trung Quc hin hn gp i s tu chin ca ton b lc lng Hi qun Hong gia Anh; v nu kinh t M tip tc tr tr trong khi kinh t Trung Quc vn tng trng gip ngn sch quc phng nc ny tng n nh trung bnh gn 10%/nm, cn cn sc mnh hi qun gia M v Trung Quc chc chn thay i. Kaplan nhc li rng trung tm a chnh tr v cuc chin cnh tranh sc mnh cng vi Trung Quc s l bin ng, ni lun chuyn 1/3 tt c giao dch thng mi hng hi th gii. l vng bin m Bc Kinh c th tip cn n Dng qua eo Malacca; v t tin n ton b vng cung Hi gio, t Ty Phi n ng Nam . Vit rng anh bn quc ny ang c xy v pht trin ngay trn lng chng ta (M), Kaplan ni thm, tng t vic M thng tr Carib khi con knh Panama c o trong sut thi gian di sau M lm trm khu vc Ty bn cu, Trung Quc cng ang mun thng tr khu vc bin ng trong tng lai gn h lm trm khu vc ng bn cu Vic Trung Quc u t hin i ha qun s, tm li, l iu ai cng c th thy v thm ch c nghe i nghe li n mc c nh Trung Quc nghim nhin l mt cng quc qun s tht s. Tuy nhin, iu t c cp l Trung Quc tng cng sc mnh bng nng lc v thc lc ca mnh hay nh n ngoi lc? Ni cch khc, Trung Quc c th t mnh lm nn mt qun i mnh vi kho tim lc v kh nguy him lm b ch p o th gii?

Bi 2: Con cp giy!
Vn ang t ra l sc mnh qun s Trung Quc c tng thch vi kh nng pht trin k thut qun s ca h hay khng. Ni cch khc, Trung Quc luyn cng

 c mt ni lc thm hu v cng nghip quc phng v chng cn bt c ai h tr vn c th xng hng mt ci? K thut qun s Trung Quc tin b n u? Mt phn trong cu tr li c th tm thy mu my bay tng hnh J-20 m Trung Quc mi tit l. Trong thc t, cng ngh ch to my bay tng hnh ngy nay chng l b mt g gh gm v cng chng l th cng ngh k thut cao m ch vi nc tin tin mi c th s hu. Khng ch M, Nga, Anh, Php v c nhng nc c b dy ln kinh nghim trong cng nghip v kh, m Hn Quc, n , Thy in v thm ch Serbia cng ch to thnh cng t lu chin u c c kh nng tc chin cao (8). K thut tng hnh cng chng b mt nt. Yu t gip my bay tng hnh tc khng b radar pht hin l (k thut thit k) hnh dng (gip trit tiu sng radar). Trong khi , nh nh bo chuyn ti hng khng qun s Bill Sweetman (bin tp chuyn san Defense Technology International) cho bit, bt c ai cng c th bit c cng ngh trn bng cch vo bt k ca hng chi no ca hng Testors (M) mua m hnh my bay qun s tng hnh c thit k (vi t l thu nh) ging tht 100%! (9). Mt trong nhng l do khin c t nn cng nghip quc phng u t cho my bay tng hnh l chi ph. Vic ch to my bay tng hnh tn km n mc Nga khng th u t sn xut th h T-50 mi nht nu khng c s hn vn t n . Chnh yu t chi ph nn, nm 2009, Lu nm gc rt li chng trnh sn xut th h F-22 ch cn 187 chic sau khi chi hn 64 t USD trong 20 nm (chng trnh nghin cu-sn xut my bay tng hnh B-2 ngn ngn sch khng qun M n gn 45 t USD). Ngoi chi ph cao, vn quan trng nht y l ng c. l th m n nay Trung Quc vn cha t lm c! Gn nh tt c chin u c m Trung Quc ch to u phi lp ng c AL-31F ca Nga, cho d h tng nhiu ln c my m nghin cu sao chp (10). Gn y nht, cui nm 2010, Trung Quc tip tc t mua ng c t hai nh my Salyut v Chernyshev (Nga) lp cho loi my bay chin u mi ch to J-11B (phin bn lai t chic Su-27 ca Nga); dng J-10 (c tin l c s gip ca Israel); v FC1 m phng theo mt thit k b d ca Nga (11). Khng ch chin u c, oanh tc c H-6 ca h cng phi s dng ng c D-30KP ca Nga Richard Aboulafia, nh phn tch qun s thuc tp on US Teal Group, ni vi t Defense Tech rng, mt chin u c hin i cn t nht 11 h thng h tr c th hot ng hiu qu trong c vic hoch nh s mng k lng, phi cng gii, i ng k s bo tr tt, v kh tinh vi, h thng radar hon ho, cc h thng in t khc Trong tt c h thng cn c ni trn, Trung Quc ch mi lm c duy nht mt theo Aboulafia l ch to phn thn cho my bay. Thiu ng c, my bay (hoc bt k h thng no khc) ch nh mt ci xc rng v tch s! Ni nh John Pike, nh phn tch ca trang web ni ting Globalsecurity.com, k thut qun s Trung Quc d c ro rit hin i ha vn cn thua M khong hai thp nin (12). Nhng g gii k s qun s Trung Quc t c vi nm gn y tht s l mt chuyn bin t ph, mt qu trnh dy cng, so vi chnh bn thn h, nhng hon ton khng th so vi bc tin kinh khng ca cng nghip quc phng th gii ni chung, bi nhng g Trung Quc ch to c trong kh nng gii hn ca h c ngi ta lm ra t lu (nu khng

nh tha hng di sn t cc cuc hp tc trong qu kh vi Lin X, cng nghip khng gian Trung Quc chc cn lu mi c c nhng chic Thn Chu!). Thi im hin ti, Trung Quc l nc duy nht trong cc thnh vin thng trc Hi ng bo an l khng c hng khng mu hm (trong khi cc nc nh hn nh Thi Lan, n , Brazil u c!). Cn nhc li, trc khi bc vo Th chin th hai, Hi qun Hong gia Nht s hu mt hm i khng vi 10 hng khng mu hm (so vi 7 ca M v 8 ca Anh). iu cho thy k thut hng hi ni ring v k thut qun s ni chung ca Nht, nc tng ng c hng khng mu hm t Th chin th nht, pht trin c no! Ly thm v d my bay khng ngi li (UAV). D trong cuc trin lm Chu Hi (xin xem k 1), Trung Quc lm ngc nhin v bt ng vi hn 25 mu UAV qun s nhng c th nhng chic UAV trn chng l g so vi th h UAV mi nht ca M m in hnh l RQ-4B Global Hawk do hng Northrop Grumman sn xut. So vi RQ-4B, UAV Predator cng ch ng mt l con co co, bi RQ-4B to gn bng my bay dn dng di 13,45m; si cnh 35,41m; cao 4,62m; nng 3,8 tn. iu khin hon ton t xa, RQ-4B l th h UAV mnh nht hin nay, c s dng chuyn do thm, c th kho st 100km2 a hnh/ngy (ngy ln m) vi h thng d tn hiu cc nhy v h thng vin thng v tinh truyn d liu cho trm ch huy mt t cng nh chin u c. RQ-4B c th quan st mi ng tnh ca tu chin v tu ngm i phng Lu nm gc hin c 3.000 UAV vi kch c, t loi nh nh chic Raven (AeroVironment) ch to bng my bay m hnh chi lp rp n Predator ( c nng cp nhn xuyn tng) v Reaper (u ca General Atomics) di t 8-11m. Ngoi ra cn c RQ-170 (Lockheed Martin) vi kh nng tng hnh v c trang b thit b c th phng virus ph hy v lm t lit b no iu khin ca h thng in t i phng. Ngoi cc loi UAV thng thng, cc hng v kh M cng tung ra (v ang c s dng) th h UAV ln thng (trc thng khng ngi li), chng hn RQ-8A Fire Scout (Northrop Grumman-Ryan Aeronautical), A160 Hummingbird (Boeing) ang c nghin cu cn l chic Phantom Eye (Boeing) vi phin bn to hn, bay cao hn v thm ch mnh hn RQ-4B, c thit k lm chin u c v oanh tc c khng ngi li (ngy 5-10-2010, Boeing cho trnh din mu chin u c-do thm khng ngi li Phantom Ray). Lu nm gc cng s hu hng trm v tinh qun s trong khi qun i Trung Quc ch mi hn 10 chic (ngun 12). Ch mt gc nh ca bc tranh, c th thy mc tng quan lc lng nh th no, m cng ch mi cp lnh vc nghin cu ch cha ni n ng dng thc t (chin trng). Khng ch i vi M, nhiu lnh vc cng nghip v kh Trung Quc vn lc hu so vi cc nc khc, chng hn n , Pakistan, Israel hay Thy in ni xut khu s v kh tr gi 13,5 t kronor (1,9 t USD) nm 2009, n cc khch hng c, Nam Phi, Hn Quc, Singapore, Pakistan, thm ch Anh v c M (14). Ln ln bng sc mnh ngi khc Trong gn hai thp nin, khch hng Trung Quc chim t n doanh s v kh Nga, vi cc thng v nhiu hn tt c nc khc cng li. Thp nin 1990, gi tr s thng v v kh Trung Quc mua t Nga t khong 1 t USD/nm; v tng hn 2 t USD vo

gia thp nin u th k 21 (13). Cng theo ngun ny, Vin nghin cu ha bnh quc t Stockholm cho bit, Trung Quc nhp v kh qui c nhiu hn bt k quc gia no t 2005-2009. Theo bo co ca B quc phng Hoa K nm 2010 (ANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS, trang 33-36-45-46-48), Trung Quc hin s dng h thng phng th tn la t i khng SA-10, SA-20 PMU1/PMU2 cng nh dng cc chin u c th h th t Su-27, Su-30, Su-30MK2 ca Nga. Qun i Trung Quc cng s dng h thng nh v ton cu GPS ca M, GLONASS ca Nga; bi h thng Bc u (Beidou-1 v Beidou-2) ca h hot ng km. Tng qut, trong hu ht lnh vc then cht ca cng nghip quc phng, Trung Quc u phi da vo k thut nc ngoi, t h thng iu khin, ng c turbine n cc thit b chnh xc cao. T nm 2003 n nay, Trung Quc lin tc vn ng hnh lang Lin minh chu u EU xa lnh cm cc nc thnh vin bn v kh cho Trung Quc, c p dng k t s kin Thin An Mn 1989. V trong khi ch EU m ca cho xut khu v kh sang Trung Quc, qun i nc ny vn tip tc da ch yu vo nh cung cp truyn thng l Nga. Tuy nhin, s nng vi trong th hin bn thn ca Trung Quc khin Nga bt u d chng. Anatoly Isaikin tng gim c Rosoboronexport d bo doanh s v kh Nga bn cho Trung Quc trong vi nm ti ch chim khong 10%. S lo ngi kh nng Trung Quc chm cha k thut khin Chnh ph Moscow xt li vic bn tim kch c hin i Su-33 c th c dng cho hng khng mu hm tng lai ca Trung Quc (mi nghi ng xut pht t vic Trung Quc ch t mua vn vn hai chic Su-33 bay th). Cn nhc li, quan h thng mi qun s Nga-Trung tng c lc cng thng, bt u t nm 2004 vi hai s kin. Th nht, l v Trung Quc sao chp k thut chin u c Su-27 trong khi h ch c php nhn lp rp theo hp ng gia cng cho Nga. Th hai, l v Nga chi tr n bng vic k hp ng giao cho Trung Quc mt l vn ti c qun s IL-76 nhng cui cng khng h sn xut! V vic khin Trung Quc ni gin. Sau khi nhn 105 trong 200 chic Su-27 trong thng v k, Trung Quc hy hp ng v ngng cc cuc m phn thng v v kh trong vi nm. Tuy nhin, sau loi tht bi vic nghin cu-ch to ng c cho chin u c, Trung Quc li lm ha vi Moscow, ct mua h thng phng th S-300 v c bit l ng c cho my bay chin u. Cn bit, ng c m Trung Quc ch to cho chic Su-27 ch chy tt c 30 ting (!) trong khi ng c Nga hot ng n 400 ting mi cn c bo tr. Khi cc cuc m phn c ni li nm 2008, Nga ln ny bt u chi rn. H khng cn (dm) nh Trung Quc lp rp (theo kiu gia cng sn phm) chin u c na. Thng 11-2010, Nga ni h ch c th cung cp chin u c Su-35 cho chng trnh hng khng mu hm Trung Quc nu anh bn ny chu mua 48 chic s lng Nga hon vn v c t li trc khi b k s Trung Quc chm cha k thut! Nga cn ni, Trung Quc phi rng kin nhn ch thm t lu qun i Nga nhn trc dn tn la phng th S-400 ri mi n lt h c mua (ngun 11)! S l thuc nc ngoi tht ra phn nh ng thc lc v trnh k thut trong cng nghip ni chung ca Trung Quc, ni m by gi vn cn km xa Nht v cng nghip in t dn dng; ni ni ting th gii vi nhng v nh cp bn quyn cng nh gin ip kinh t (v c quc phng tt nhin!).

Bi 3: Mt trn gin ip
Mt khi nng lc c nhn cn hn ch, cch tt nht i tt ca cng nghip quc phng Trung Quc l chm cha k thut quc phng nc ngoi Mt v in hnh Trong tt c v n tnh bo quc phng lin quan Trung Quc b l vi nm gn y, v Ko-Suen Bill Moo l s kin gy ch nhiu nht (15) Vo mt ngy nng bc Florida nm 2005, Ko-Suen Bill Moo bt u chun b kt thc tr chi tim m mnh thc hin sau gn hai nm. 5g sng ngy 7-11-2005, doanh nhn Hn Quc Bill Moo n thnh ph Fort Lauderdale, ng k phng ti Harbor Beach Marriott Resort & Spa. Theo k hoch, vi ngy ti, Bill Moo s n sn bay quc t Hollywood, thu my bay ch mt kin hng c bit. Sau , Bill Moo p ring chuyn bay thng mi n Thm Dng n hng. Mn hng khin Bill Moo tn n gn 4 triu USD nhng cng ng cng v ng s c th b ti 1 triu USD tin li, sau khi giao n cho khch hng l gii chc qun s cp cao Trung Quc. Mn hng ca Bill Moo l chic ng c cnh qut F110-GE-129 do General Electric ch to lp cho F-16 nhm gip chin u c ny c th phng n vn tc hn Mach 2 (tc khong 2.400km/gi). a im chnh xc m Bill Moo s n l Cng ty phi c Thm Dng, ni Trung Quc ch to ng c my bay ni a u tin Lyulka AL31 (nhng vi s gip ca Nga) Trong mt ba tra ti khch sn Marriott, Bill Moo (lc 58 tui) cn ni vi khch hng rng mnh s kim thm vi ng c my bay na hoc thm ch c nguyn chic F-16! Tuy nhin, khch hng ni ci m h ang thm nh di l AGM-129A (tn la hnh trnh c th lp u n ht nhn phng t khng trung ca Khng qun M). AGM-129A (trng t xa ht nh mt my bay) bay vi vn tc khong 1.287km/gi; c th mang u n W80 dit mc tiu cch n gn 3.000km. Nh tt c loi hng m Bill Moo rao bn, AGM-129A l th bo bi ca qun i M, c xp vo loi khng c php bn hoc chuyn giao (bn v) k thut cho nc ngoi. Tt nhin mt ngi lm vic lu nm cho ngnh hng khng-khng gian M nh Bill Moo khng th khng bit lut trn. Trong hn 10 nm, Bill Moo l nh t vn giao dch quc t cho Lockheed Martin v mt s cng ty quc phng M khc ti i Loan. Tuy nhin, Bill Moo khng bit rng nht c nht ng ca mnh u b theo di t nhm ca Anthony Mangione, thuc Lc lng Hi quan v Di tr Hoa K (ICE), vi n v iu tra k thut chin lc v v kh (ASTI) c nhim v theo di hot ng bun bn v kh ti 43 quc gia. Nm 2008, ASTI thc hin hn 2.500 v theo di khp th gii, trong c Trung Quc. V Bill Moo bt u c ASTI ch sau khi hai li bun vn cng l c tnh c M tr lng gii thiu nhn vin chm ca Mangione cho mt tay ngi Php tn Maurice Serge Voros. Trong mt cuc in thoi ngy 26-2-2004, Voros ngh bn nh cung cp (v bc ca nhn vin ASTI) gip mua ng c dng trong trc thng chin u Black Hawk do General Electric sn xut mt hng nm trong (danh sch) U.S. Munitions List (cc loi v kh-k thut qun s

c Ban qun s-chnh tr thuc B ngoi giao Hoa K lit k v qui nh cm bnchuyn giao cho nc ngoi m khng c s ng ca Chnh ph M). Nm 2005, ASTI bt u bit rng Voros ch l mt tn c trung gian. Sau lng hn l Bill Moo v sau lng Bill Moo l i din gii chc qun s Trung Quc. Thng 3-2005, Voros ni vi tay nh cung cp (ASTI) rng Bill Moo bt u thay i s quan tm hng ha. Th m y cn by gi l ng c F-16. Ngoi ra, cn c tn la ht nhn, ng c phn lc Sau lot cuc gp ti London v Orlando (Florida), Bill Moo, Voros v i din nh cung cp (ASTI) ng ci gi cui cng l 3,9 triu USD cho mt ng c F-16. Ngy 5-10-2005, Bill Moo chuyn tin vo mt ti khon ngn hng Thy S do hn ng tn. Ngy 8-11-2005, Bill Moo c nh cung cp ch n mt nh cha my bay xem hng lm tin. Trc , hn chuyn 140.000 USD t mt ti khon Singapore n mt ti khon do ASTI qun l, lm ph vn chuyn. Hn yu cu c chp hnh ng c F-16 nhng b t chi. D vy, hn vn ng thanh ton nt phn cn li ca 3,9 triu USD; v ni thm rng, sau khi tr li t Trung Quc, hn mun mua nguyn chic F-16. Khch hng t ra rt tin tng my ng. H d nh mua mt chic F-16 hai ch Bill Moo ni vi nh cung cp. Lc ny, ASTI quyt nh kt thc tr chi. Ngy 911-2005, h p n phng khch sn Marriott Resort v bt ng s T gin ip truyn thng n Vng in nht th chin Nhiu nh phn tch quc phng cho rng phin bn my bay tng hnh J-20 m Trung Quc mi tit l l mt bn sao lai tp t t nht hai ngun. N khng ch ging chic MIG-1.44 (ca hng Mikoyan-Nga) m cn hao hao chic F22-Raptor (Lockheed Martin/Boeing). Theo Cavin Dsouza (16), h thng my ch lin quan d n (tr gi 300 t USD) v chin u c th h mi JSF (Joint Strike Fighter) ca Lu nm gc tng b t nhp t nm 2007. Tt nhin y khng l ln u tin. Ngy 17-11-2010, k s gc Hoa Xiang Dong Yu lm cho hng xe hi Ford trong hn mt thp nin b kt ti nh cp cc k thut tr gi 50 triu USD bn cho Trung Quc. Nhiu k thut trong u c th c ng dng cho qun s. Trung tun thng 2-2011, nh chc trch Ukraine cng x 6 nm t i vi cng dn Nga Aleksandr Yermakov ti lm gin ip cho Trung Quc. Tnh bo qun i Trung Quc ch th Yermakov nh cp ti liu mt lin quan khu hun luyn-th nghim hng khng-hi qun (NITKA), tp trung vo nhng thng tin hu ch gip Trung Quc xy dng n cng nh c s o to nhn s chuyn bit cho hng khng mu hm ca h (trong tng lai). Cng tc vi Trung Quc mt thp nin qua, cng con trai, Yermakov cn c nhim v t chc sn lng cc cu gii chc quc phng Nga, Ukraine v vi nc khc a n Trung Quc, vi b ngoi l khch du lch, d cc hi tho chuyn v kh v k thut qun s. Yermakov c tr 1.500 USD cho mi du khch m ng s r c n Trung Quc theo SBU (C quan tnh bo Ukraine). Tnh bo Trung Quc cng ha tr cho cha con Yermakov 1 triu USD vic giao ti liu lin quan NITKA cng nh mi hot ng ca n, di dng bn v, nh k thut s, thng tin lu trn USB. Mi vic din ra gn nh trt lt v cha con Yermakov thu thp khong 1.500 trang ti liu, gi tr hng trm triu USD, nhng bt ng b thp khi chun b chuyn

cho Trung Quc. Theo mt s vin chc quc phng M, cn c hun luyn khng qun ti Hng Thnh (Liu Ninh) c nhiu c im thit k ht nh phin bn gc NITKA ca Ukraine (17). u nm 2010, lot gin ip Trung Quc cng b l. Thng 22010, k s gc Hoa Dongfan Greg Chung lm vic cho Boeing t nm 1973 b bt qu tang vi hn 200.000 trang ti liu giu ti nh ring cng 3 triu USD m ng s khng th gii thch ngun gc (18). Trc vi nm, thng 8-2005, nh bun v kh Hn Quc Kwonhwan Park b x ti bn thit b knh nhn m v ng c trc thng Black Hawk cho Trung Quc; ri v Ting-Ih Hsu (cng dn M gc Hoa) v Hai Lin Nee (cng dn Trung Quc) bun lu 25 con chip vi ng dng dng cho tn la Hellfire c trang b cho trc thng chin u Apache v Cobra u thng 2-2010, mt cu k s my bay tng hnh B-2 ti Hawaii b qui ti (v b kt n 32 nm t) vic bn ti liu mt lin quan k thut tn la hnh trnh cho Trung Quc. Gn y hn, u nm 2011, Zhen Zhou Wu b M x 8 nm t ti mua thit b dng cho radar v tn la ri bn cho Trung Quc qua ng Hong Kong. Ton cnh, hot ng gin ip Trung Quc nhm vo cng nghip quc phng M tr nn nhn nhp vi mc ro rit vi nm gn y, song song vi vic Trung Quc p ga tng cng k hoch hin i ha qun s. t nht 44 ngi b truy t ch trong hai nm 2008-2009 (20). Khng ch tin hnh cc phi v gin ip truyn thng (sn lng, chiu d, thu mn nhng k s gc Hoa v gc lm vic trong ngnh cng nghip quc phng M v chu u), Trung Quc cn t chc cc chin dch gin ip trc tuyn. Vn t ra ngy cng nghim trng n mc nhiu cng ty quc phng M gi bo co cnh bo Quc hi. Thng 10-2009, tp on Northrop Grumman thc hin mt bo co t m v ci gi l Vng in nht th chin Integrated Network Electronic Warfare), tc hnh thi cuc chin trn mng trong Trung Quc hoch nh v tin hnh cc chin dch thu thp ti liu cng nh ph ri h thng quc phng M. Bo co cho bit gii ip vin mng Trung Quc chm cha cc ti liu k thut tr gi 4050 t USD/nm t cc t chc M. Trong mt v nm 2007, ip vin mng Trung Quc tin hnh chin dch do thm, rnh m v nhn bit c trng mc my tnh ca nhn vin ti cc cng ty mc tiu ti M. Mt s trng mc my tnh thm ch c thm thng xuyn n gn 150 ln! T , h c th nh cp mt m cng ty m vo h thng my ch cha cc ti liu c mc nhy cm cao. Cc nhm c nhim mng Trung Quc cn c tng thm nhp vo mng NIPRNet ca Lu nm gc (ni cha cc thng tin nhy cm nhng khng thuc loi ti liu mt). Theo tng William Lord, Trung Quc truy xut t 10-20 terabyte d liu t NIPRNet (21) Vi cc chin dch gin ip ro rit, c bit bng k thut gi con nga thnh Troy (mt s sinh vin-cng dn Trung Quc hc v lm vic ti M v chu u) tm thi c nh cp k thut, Trung Quc t khng t bc tin trn con ng hin i ha quc phng. Thc t l h bit h yu ch no v do h ra sc rt ngn khong cch vi trnh tin tin ca k thut quc phng phng Ty. Tuy nhin, sc mnh qun s Trung Quc, d cn nhiu hn ch, vn lin tc c phng i. V sao?

Bi 4: Ti sao sc mnh qun s Trung Quc c cng iu?

Vi thc lc v khong cch cn km xa phng Ty v hu ht phng din, qun i Trung Quc vn c cng iu nh mt sc mnh ang dn to th cn bng vi M. Nhng kin v bnh lun ngy th ny vn c nhai i nhai li hng ngy trn cc mt bo M ln th gii. Hn l c mc ch g? Tm ci gt chn ca Achilles Ruslan Pukhov gim c Trung tm phn tch k thut chin lc, c vn B trng quc phng Nga ni rng Trung Quc cn mt thp nin na mi c th hon thin c ng c my bay chin u cng nh nhng k thut then cht khc ca cng nghip v kh; v thi im hin nay th Trung Quc vn l thuc vo chng ti v tip tc nh th trong tng lai gn. Nhn nh v th h tu ngm Jin (Tn cp tim nh), Phng tnh bo hi qun Hoa K cho bit Jin gip hi qun Trung Quc ln u tin c kh nng tn cng bng v kh ht nhn vi dn tn la tm xa 6.400km nhng Jin li chy n tng t cc th h tu ngm ht nhn m Lin X ng cch y 30 nm (!) v do chng d dng b pht hin ngay va khi n my khi hnh khi cng. Vn quan trng na i vi hi qun Trung Quc ni ring (v qun i nc ny ni chung) l thiu kinh nghim thc t chin trng. Ton b hm i hn 60 chic tu ngm Trung Quc ch mi thc hin vi cuc tun dng nm 2009. H thiu hn thc t nh m. Gio s Th n Hong, gim c Trung tm nghin cu M ti i hc Nhn Dn (Trung Quc), nhn nh: T nm 1980 n nay, khng c mt binh lnh qun i Trung Quc no v khng mt v kh qun i Trung Quc no l c th nghim thc t. Tt c chng ta phi bnh tm li v nhn ra thc t rng nhng loi v kh (hin i) nh vy vn cn mt con ng di phi i, trc khi tt c c sn sng (22). Ngay c tim lc tn la Trung Quc, gii chuyn gia vn khng tht s nh gi cao. Tn la DF-21 c miu t l t ch bi chin lc c th tn cng hng khng mu hm (anti-ship ballistic missile ASBM) nhng liu Trung Quc tht s s hu loi v kh nguy him nh vy? Lin X tng nghin cu ASBM nhiu thp nin nhng u tht bi. V M th cha bao gi. V tinh M c th pht hin tc thi ngay khi ASBM c phng v do hng khng mu hm (mc tiu) c th di chuyn cch xa hng dm trc khi b trng n. tn cng mt hng khng mu hm ang di chuyn, gii chuyn gia qun s cho bit, Trung Quc cn c h thng xc nh mc tiu siu ti tn, tt hn c ng cp th gii. Cn bit, t thn tn la khng th hot ng. N cn mt h thng phc tp gm trm ch huy, kim sot, do thm xy dng h thng h tr cho ASBM, vi Trung Quc, hin vn l iu ngoi kh nng! Vic Trung Quc dn hi qun n Vnh Aden vo nm 2009 vi mc ch chng hi tc c din gii l mt bc tin ln trong vic trin khai qun i ra khi phm vi bin cng quc gia. Tuy nhin, iu cng v hnh trung lm l ra im yu ca qun i Trung Quc nh phn tch ca Christopher Yung (nguyn vin chc Lu nm gc, hin l ging vin i hc quc phng quc gia Hoa K) l vic thiu cc cn c qun s nc ngoi. iu c ngha Trung Quc khng th tc chin v duy tr lu di mt o qun nc ngoi. Vic thiu c s trc thng thnh phn khng th thiu i vi tc chin hi qun cng khin hi qun Trung Quc cha dng mnh tung hong ngang dc trong cc trn ng hi chin. Christopher Yung thm ch cung cp thm thng tin rng, h thng lm lnh bo qun thc phm trn cc tu Trung Quc km n

ni khng th gip hi qun duy tr vic lnh nh v ct lin lc vi t lin nhiu ngy (ngun 11; xin xem ch thch ngun k 2). ng sau vic phng i sc mnh qun s Trung Quc Trong cuc phng vn vi New York Times, chuyn gia hng u Trung Quc v qun s, Chu Phong (thuc i hc Bc Kinh), thnh tht ni rng mt s bo co chnh ph (Trung Quc) v s tin b nhanh v v kh hin i chng hn my bay tng hnh tht ra chng g khc hn l tr qung co Sn ng mi v (ngun 2, xin xem ch thch ngun k 1). V Nht Cng, ngi tng lm vic cho tp on cng nghip-khoa hc khng gian Trung Quc trong su nm vi t cch nh thit k tn la, ni rng mnh cha bao gi tht s bit n ASBM! Lm th no m mt qun i nh vy vn c miu t nh mt sc mnh vi tim nng kinh khng s sm lm ch th gii trong tng lai khng xa? Ai thi phng sc mnh qun s Trung Quc? Chnh Trung Quc l ni xut pht nhng thng ip trn! Th nht, h mun cho phng Ty thy kh nng qun s ln mnh tng ngy tng gi ca h, rng h by gi khng d b n hip, rng h ang tim cn n ngng ca ca mt cng quc ton din, t kinh t n qun s, rng Washington ng c tip tc h hin din qun s bin ng lm nh hng n quyn lc v quyn li Trung Quc Nh vy, vic nhn mnh sc mnh bt u tr thnh mt chin lc ca Trung Quc. H da v k thut h da cng l mt n binh php thi ton cu, nh lo gia Tn T tng dy trong Tam thp lc k: V trung sinh hu (Khng c m lm thnh c; k th 8 ) v H trng thanh th (Thi phng thanh th; k th 26). n ct li ca vic ph din c bp qun s l thng ip hin hin rng Trung Quc by gi hon ton lc i ph bt c mi e da no lm nh hng quyn li (kinh t) Trung Quc. iu ny khng nh trong cc kin c nu trn cc phng tin truyn thng nc ny vi nm qua. Gii hc thuyt qun s Trung Quc tin rng Trung Quc ngy nay chng cn phi e d v che giu vic biu dng sc mnh qun s v l hnh ng cn lm khng nh sc mnh nhm t mc tiu cui cng l bo v li ch kinh t. Tng Trng Triu Ngn ni rng qun i Trung Quc phi b ngay th hc thuyt c rch li thi v vic xy dng mt qun i hng n mc tiu ha bnh trong thi bnh v rng vic chun b chin tranh v thng trn phi lun l nhim v c bn thit yu ca qun i. Cy bt bnh lun ca t Gii phng qun bo Hong Cn Ln thm ch cn a ra khi nim mi v bin gii li ch quc gia trong li ch quc gia Trung Quc nm ngoi khun kh lnh th, t ai, hi phn v khng phn m n phi hm cha c nhng vng rng ln, chng hn i dng ni ghi du cc cuc hi hnh ca nhng con tu du Trung Quc, v thm ch khng gian. Bt c ni no quyn li quc gia ca chng ta m rng, s mng qun i chng ta phi i theo h Hong vit Xt n s mng lch s mi ca chng ta, qun i (Trung Quc) by gi khng ch phi bo v bin cng m cn phi bo v c nhng ng bin gii li ch quc gia (23). Mt phn trong nhng ng bin gii li ch quc gia ca Trung Quc c th hiu l khu vc bin ng, ni mt ng li b ang thm lim vo 100 t thng du v 210 t m3 kh t, ni 80% du nhp khu ca Trung Quc c vn chuyn qua eo bin Malacca

(s liu t bo co Lu nm gc 2010 ANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS, trang 17 v 20) Li bt cp hi Nhng lp lun tng t tip tc c nhn mnh v c nng ln tm chnh sch i ngoi. Thng 9-2009, gii phn tch chnh tr v bo ch n mt phen lo lng khi xut hin bi bo ca nh phn tch Trung Quc L Thu Lm vi ni dung ku gi qun i Trung Quc m rng phm vi hot ng bng cch hin din qun s ti Nam (24). V trong bi vit 17-8-2010 trn Nhn dn nht bo, cy bt bnh lun L Hng Mai cng khuyn rng Vit Nam khng nn chi vi la khi quc t ha vn Bin ng Tuy nhin, s ln gn qu sm ca Trung Quc, i ngc vi lun thuyt Thao quang dng hi (n mnh ch thi) ca ng Tiu Bnh tht ra ch khin Trung Quc gp bt li. S bnh trng hi qun v khng che giu vic t cho mnh c quyn lm ch v quyn sinh st khu vc bin ng khin h, cui cng, li b vy bi mt quan im ngoi giao ph bin hin nay l s cnh bo v mi e da Trung Quc. Him ha Trung Quc khin cc nc ng Nam nhch li gn nhau to th cn bng quyn lc vi Trung Quc (c bit quan h qun s gia Hn Quc v Nht). V cng bi xut pht t ni lo lng v mi e da Trung Quc, c nh ng lin tc trn cc mt bo M, m Washington mi c th g ca yu cu Quc hi rng tay m hu bao cho ngn sch an ninh-quc phng khu vc chu hoc bn v kh cho cc nc ng minh. Cn nhc li, ch mt nm sau khi vo Nh trng, Tng thng Barack Obama k xot quyt nh bn s v kh tr gi hn 6 t USD cho i Loan (gm 114 tn la Patriot, 60 trc thng Black Hawk, thit b vin thng cho chin u c F-16). Nu khng t m thm bc tranh, vn c chnh tay Trung Quc v, v sc mnh qun s Trung Quc, lm sao cc hng v kh kim n c? Cuc chy ua v trang ang nng dn ti khu vc cho thy iu . u nm 2011, n va hon thnh chic u tin trong d n su tu ngm chin u (loi Scorpne). Thng 12-2010, Nht bt u xem xt li chnh sch quc phng v c k hoch mua nm tu ngm, ba khu trc hm, 12 chin u c, 10 my bay tun tra v 39 trc thng (Nht d tnh chi 284 t USD hin i ha qun i, t nm 2011-2015). Doanh s nhp khu v kh cng ang tng ti Malaysia. Singapore, d nh mua thm hai tu ngm, hin l mt trong 10 nc nhp v kh nhiu nht th gii! c cng d tnh chi 279 t USD trong 20 nm ti cho tu ngm, khu trc hm v tim kch c. S chy ua v trang ti khu vc hin mc v tc cha tng c k t thi chy ua v trang gia M v Lin X thi Chin tranh lnh (25). N din ra song song v t l thun vi cc liu lng m c cc cnh bo v mi e da ca (con h giy) Trung Quc. H tun thng 2-2011, T chc Kokoda ti c tung ra bo co, nhn mnh rng s e da Trung Quc ang lm kch n mt nhu cu khn cp v vic ti nhn nhn s pht trin qun s, nhm lp k hoch cng nh kh nng ngn chn thi bnh trng cc nhanh ca Qun i Nhn dn Trung Quc (PLA), rng c khng th th trc mc , cch thc v tc ca s pht trin PLA; iu ang thay i an ninh Ty Thi Bnh Dng. Ti Washington, ngy 8-22011, bo co Chin lc qun s quc gia ca Lu nm gc mt ln na li nhc rng

u tin v quan tm chin lc ca M s tng dn ti khu vc chu -Thi Bnh Dng ng l s bnh trng sc mnh Trung Quc ang to ra ngi n tht s, v qun s ln ngoi giao, dn n nhng ng thi mi trong nhn thc mi v chnh sch i ngoi ca cc nc khu vc. H ng l nn nhn li th kh x m h to ra khi cao qu mc v qu sm sc mnh qun s nh nhn nh ca gio s Vng Tp T, khoa trng Khoa nghin cu quc t thuc i hc Bc Kinh; gim c Vin nghin cu chin lc quc t thuc Trng ng trung ng Trung Quc (26). Trung Quc by gi c mun dng li cng khng kp na ri! Trung Quc i qu xa (trong vic t sng v thi phng sc mnh qun s ca h) n mc khng th quay u li. Ti nghip cha, con h giy khng bit rng n ang t la t thiu mnh! (1) Chinas New Drones Raise Eyebrows, Jeremy Page, Wall Street Journal (18-112010) (2) Chinas Push to Modernize Military Is Bearing Fruit, Michael Wines v Edward Wong, New York Times (5-1-2011) (3) Chinese Military Seeks to Extend Its Naval Power, Edward Wong, New York Times (23-4-2010) (4) China Testing Ballistic Missile Carrier-Killer, Andrew Erickson, Wired (29-32010) (5) ANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS. Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China. 2010 (74 trang) (6) How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015, James Kraska, chuyn san Orbis (thuc Vin nghin cu chnh sch i ngoi Hoa K), Winter 2010 (11 trang) (7) While US is Distracted, China Develops Sea Power, Robert D. Kaplan, Washington Post (26-9-2010) (8) At What Cost Stealth, David Axe, The Diplomat (1-2-2011) (9) Did Shot-Down F-117 Aid J-20 Development, Bill Sweetman, Aviationweek.com (241-2011) (10) Chinas Over-Hyped Stealth Jet, David Axe, The Diplomat (7-1-2011) (11) Military Strength Is Eluding China, John Pomfret, Washington Post (25-12-2010) (12) US Drones Trump China Theatrics, David Axe, The Diplomat (7-2-2011)

(13) Why China Snubs Russia Arms, Richard Weitz, The Diplomat (5-4-2010) (14) Swedish weapons exports on the rise, Paul OMahony, The Local (3-3-2010) (15 ) How China Steals U.S. Military Secrets, Simon Cooper, Popular Mechanics (10-72009) (16) Did China steal stealth technology from US and Russia for Chengdu J-20?, Cavin Dsouza, Defence Aviation (27-1-2011) (17) Russian sold secrets for Chinas first carrier, Reuben F. Johnson, Washington Times (14-2-2011) (18) Another Chinese Spy Goes Down, strategypage.com (13-2-2010) (19) Capability of the Peoples Republic of China to Conduct Cyber Warfare and Computer Network Exploitation, Northrop Grumman Corporation, October 9, 2009 (88 trang) (20) Chinas Spy Games, Investors.com (17-8-2010) (21) Trojan Dragon: Chinas Cyber Threat, John Tkacik Jr., The Heritage (8-2-2008) (22) China Flexes Weapons Muscles Military Superpower? Not so fast, Peh Shing Huei (Bch Thng Huy, chnh vn phng Bc Kinh ca t Straits Times), The Straits Times (14-1-2011) (23) Beijing Learns to be a Superpower, Willy Lam-gio s i hc quc t Akita, FEER (1-5-2009) (24) Its not time to panic. Yet, Drew Thompson, Foreign Policy (MARCH/APRIL 2010) (25) Asias New Arms Race, Amol Sharma, Jeremy Page, James Hookway, v Rachel Pannett, Wall Street Journal (12-2-2011) (26) Chinas Search for a Grand Strategy, Wang Jisi (Vng Tp T), Foreign Affairs (March/April 2011)