Country Industry Forecast

Report Service
1996 - 2006
The Indian Telecom Industry

The Indian Telecom Industry

Structural Reforms to Accelerate Economic Growth The Indian economy is on the path of resurgence. The gradual opening up of the economy ensured steady growth even at a time when other countries were in the grip of a massive slowdown. Progressive reforms such as the removal of restrictions on foreign investment and industrial delicensing are responsible for this growth. Tailoring the EXIM policy to promote exports and aligning the import duties to meet WTO commitments further contributed to this development. This trend is expected to continue in the next five years, driven by a favorable business policy environment in terms of tax cuts, broadening tax base, and reduced interest rates on borrowings. Such structural changes have had a positive impact on the telecommunications sector and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.42 per cent is estimated for 2002-2006. The future of the industry lies in the mainline and cellular segments and constant technological innovations such as Internet Protocol (IP)-based services. Revenues from voice services

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will experience sustained growth even as those from data services are expected to increase sharply due to a surge in usage. The telecommunications industry in India is likely to see consolidation among major operators and privatization of many Government companies. The Country Industry Forecast for the Indian telecom industry studies the country-specific factors such as politics, business policy, and macroeconomic indicators that have an impact on this sector and its main segments. This report provides incisive analysis of the industry for 1996-2001 as well as forecasts for 2002-2006. Proactive Policies: Key to Future Growth Indias move toward globalization, especially in the telecom sector, has to be driven by transparent policies and better market conditions to attract foreign investments. According to this report, The recent policy stance of opening of the international long distance (ILD) segment and legalization of Internet telephony should result in huge investment in the industry. However, the Government, on its part, should ensure an environment conducive to foreign participation by increasing the FDI limit and following transparent policies. Cellular Subscribers and Revenues for Robust Growth The entry of new operators and the introduction of novel services coupled with the increasing importance of wireless communication are factors that are likely to contribute to the growth in the number of subscribers in the cellular segment. As the report says, In the last quarter of 2001, the number of subscribers had reached the 5 million mark due to the continuous fall in airtime rates, achieving 0.5 percent mobile penetration in India. Revenues from cellular phones are expected to grow at a CAGR of 37.29 percent during the forecast period with higher data usage and multimedia services.

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Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary 1.1. Introduction and Segment Analysis A. Introduction B. Segment Analysis 1.2. Summary of Major Findings A. Country Trends and Forecasts B. Industry Trends and Forecasts

D. Summary of Political Implications on the Economy and the Industry

6.4. Trends and Forecasts for the Economic Indicators : Prices and GDP A. Prices B. GDP

5. Business Policy Analysis and its Implications for the Telecommunications Industry 5.1. Domestic and External Policies A. Domestic Policies B. External Policies 5.2. Industry Acts and Multilateral Agreements A. Industry Acts and Multilateral Agreements B. Summary of Implications of the Business Policy on the Economy and the Industry

6.5. Summary of the Implications on the Telecommunications Industry A. Telecommunication Prices B. Investment

2. Overview of the Telecommunications Industry 2.1. Industry Definition and Global Overview A. Industry Definition B. Global Overview 2.2. Regional and Country Overviews A. Regional Overview B. Country Overview

7.Trends and Forecasts for the Telecommunications Industry 7.1. Trends and Forecasts for Telecommunication Services A. Mainline Subscribers B. Domestic Mainline Segment C. International Mainline Segment D. Cellular Segment

6. Economic Analysis and its Implications on the Telecommunications Industry 6.1. Trends and Forecasts for the Economic Indicators : Consumption and Investment A. Consumption B. Investment 6.2. Trends and Forecasts for the Economic Indicators : External Markets and Foreign Investment A. Exports and Imports B. Current Account Deficit and Foreign Exchange Reserve C. Foreign Investment D. Exchange Rate Interest Rate and Capital Market 6.3. Trends and Forecasts for the Economic Indicators : Labor Markets A. Population Employment and Earnings B. Labor Laws and Regulations

E. Radio Paging Segment 7.2. Trends and Forecasts for the Telecommunication Equipment Segment A. Introduction B. Production Exports and Imports 7.3. Total Telecommunications Services and Equipment Segments A. Telecommunications Services Segment B. Telecommunications Equipment Segment

3. Industry Structure and Key Parameters 3.1. Segments and Parameters A. Industry Segments B. Parameters 3.2. Growth Determinants and Country-Industry Linkage A. Growth Determinants B. Country-Industry Linkage

4. Political Analysis and its Implication for the Telecommunications Industry 4.1. India Political System A. Political System B. Political Parties 4.2. Government Policies and Agendas A. Government Agenda B. Foreign Policies and International Relations C. Telecommunication Policies

8. Industry Progression Index 8.1. Methodology for the Industry Progression Index A. Index Methodology B. Weights Assigned to the Key Parameters of the Industry

8.2. Progression Index for the Telecommunications Industry in India A. Progression Index for the Segments of the Industry B. Industry Progression Index

Summary of the Key Features of the Parliament (India) Position of the Political Parties in the Parliament (India), 2002 Chronology of Governments (India), 1990-2001

Trends and Forecasts for Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Portfolio Investment (India), 1996-2006 Indian Rupee Against the Dollar, 1996-2001. Bank Rate of the Reserve Bank (India), 1996-2001 Population and Unemployment Rate (India), 1996-2006 Wholesale Price Index, Consumer Price

Fact Sheet
1. Country Fact Sheet A. Geography Demography and Infrastructure B. Economic Indicators 2. Regional and Industry Fact Sheets A. Asia Pacific: Regional Fact Sheet B. India: Telecom Industry Fact Sheet

Total Revenues and Expenditure for the Government (India), Fiscal Year 1996-97 2001-02 Central Plan Expenditure for Various Sectors by the Government (India), Fiscal Year 1996-97 -2001-02 General Peak Tariff Rate (India), August 1, 1998

Index, and Inflation (India), 1996-2006 Summary of Impact of Important Macroeconomic Indicators on the Future Course of the Economy (India), 2002-2006 Trends and Forecasts for GDP (India),

Status of Foreign Direct Investment Policy in Selected Sectors (India), 2001

1996-2006 Call Rates for the Subscribers in the Rural

List of Figures Appendix

Trends and Forecasts for the Key Economic Indicators (India), 1996-2006 Trends and Forecasts for the Telecommunications Industry (India), 1996-2006

Sector-Wise Share of Foreign Direct Investment Approved (India), 1991-2001

and Urban Areas (India) Composition of Subscribers and Revenue

Trends and Forecasts for Consumption Expenditure and its Components (India), 1996-2006

Generated by Various Categories (India), 2000 Segment-Wise Cumulative Foreign Direct

Trends and Forecasts for Gross Savings and Trends for the Telecommunications Markets (World), 1996-2000 Trends for the Telecommunications Market (Asia Pacific), 2000 Contribution of the Telecommunications Industry to the GDP (India), 1996-2000 Share of the Telecommunications Industry in Total Exports and Imports (India), 1996-2000 Trends for the Telecommunications Industry as a Percentage of its Segments (India), 1996-2000 Trends and Forecasts for Current Account Deficit and Foreign Exchange Reserves (India), 1996-2006 Trend and Forecasts for Exports and Imports (India), 1996-2006 its Components and Household Savings Rates (India), 1996-2001

Investment Inflow in the Telecommunications Industry (India), 1991-2001 Trends and Forecasts for Foreign Direct

Trends and Forecasts for Gross Domestic Investment and its Components (India), 1996-2006

Investment in the Telecommunications Industry (India), 1996-2006 Waiting List for Mainline Connections (India), 1996-2000 Trends and Forecasts for the Number of Subscribers in the Mainline Segment (India), 1996-2006 Trends for the Number of Internet Subscribers of the Internet (India), 1996-2001

Trends and Forecasts for Capital Expenditure in the Domestic Mainline Segment (India), 1996-2006 Trends and Forecasts for Revenues from the Domestic Mainline Segment (India), 1996-2006 Trends and Forecasts for Paid Minutes in the International Mainline Segment (India), 1996-2006 Trends and Forecasts for Capital Expenditure in the International Mainline Segment (India), 1996-2006 Trends and Forecasts for Revenues in the International Mainline Segment (India), 1996-2006 Trends and Forecasts for Average Revenue per User in the International Mainline Segment (India), 1996-2006 Trends and Forecasts for the Number of Subscribers and Revenues of the Cellular Segment (India), 1996-2006 Trends and Forecasts for the Number of Subscribers and Revenues of the Radio Paging Segment (India), 1996-2006 Trends and Forecasts for Revenues of the Telecommunications Services Segment (India), 1996-2006 Trends and Forecasts for Production in the Telecommunications Equipment Segment (India), 1996-2006 Trends and Forecasts for Exports and Imports of the Telecommunications Equipment Segment (India), 1996-2006

Trends and Forecasts for the Telecommunications Equipment Segment (India), 1996-2006 Weights Assigned to the Key Parameters and Segments of the Telecommunications Industry (India) Progression Index for the Telecommunications Industry and its Segments (India), 1996-2006

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