Ton cnh th trng BS H Ni t

Bo co Qu ca CBRE

Thuyt trnh bi:

Richard Leech Gim c iu hnh

CBRE PHNG NGHIN CU & T VN

Trn Th T Thanh Qun l cp cao

Cng ty TNHH CB Richard Ellis Vit Nam 06/01/2011

TNG QUAN KINH T VIT NAM

TIU IM
GDP ln u tin vt mc 100 t USD trong nm 2010; tng trng 6,78%. GDP qu 4 tng 7,34% so vi cng k nm trc, v tng u hng qu . GDP bnh qun u ngi c t 1.160 USD; c coi l quc gia c thu nhp trung bnh FDI vn ng k t 17,2 t USD; vn thc hin t 11 t USD, tng 10% Kim ngch nhp khu t 84 t USD trong nm 2010, tng 20%; xut khu t 76,1 t, tng 25,5% so vi cng k nm ngoi. CPI tng 11,75%; Gi vng tng gn 35%; Gi USD tng 10% Li sut bin ng mnh, li sut cho vay t nh 20-22% ,sau gim cn 16-17%, li sut huy ng t nh 17%, dng li 14% vo cui nm

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TNG QUAN KINH T H NI

Tng trng GDP Q4: 11,5% so vi cng k 2009 Vt xa GDP trung bnh ton quc (7,34%) Trong tan nm 2010 tng trng GDP t 11% (c nc 7,68%) FDI nm 2010: 180,2 triu USD, 225 d n Du lch: 1,23 triu lt khch quc t, tng 20% so vi 2009 Tng mc bn l sn phm v dch v tng 31,2% so vi cng k 2009

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C S H TNG H NI
Cao tc Ha Lc Ha Bnh c chp thun u t, nng cao hiu qu hot ng ca i l Thng Long, gim ti cho Quc l 6. Quc l 6 (on H ng Xun Mai) ang chun b trin khai ci to v m rng D n Quc l 5 ko di c tin gii phng mt bng v thi cng kh tt.

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C S H TNG H NI
Vnh ai 1: ng Mc Nguyn Khoi ang c u tin trin khai gii phng mt bng trong nm 2011. D kin hon thnh trong nm 2012 Vnh ai 2: Cng ty Vincom xut xy dng cao tc trn cao on Vnh Tuy Ng T S Vnh ai 3: ng Phm Hng s c m rng. Cao tc trn cao ang c trin khai on Khut Duy Tin Linh m Vnh ai 4: Quy hoch chi tit ang c xut
D n ng st Ct Linh H ng c trin khai tt, d kin hon thnh trong nm 2015 ng Long Bin Bt Trng c hon thnh, tng cng giao thng gia H Ni v Hng Yn.

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TH TRNG CN H BN
TIU IM Ngun cung mi trong Q4/2010 tng 50% so vi Q3. Residential

Le Van Luong

Cleve

Mulberry Lane

Canal Park

Gi th cp tng tt trn c 4 phn khc th trng, sau 3 qu nhiu bin ng Nhu cu th trng tip tc nghing v cc sn phm trung cp & bnh dn. Hu ht sn phm cao cp & hng sang tc bn chm.

302 Cau Phn ng ca ch u t trc tnh hnh th trng bin ng: Giay

The Pride

Cc ch u t hiu r hn Ngh nh 71, Thng t 16 v tc ng ca hai vn bn lut ny. Nhng d n cao cp cha chnh thc cho bn vn gi thi quan st v ch i. Nhiu bin php c thc hin nhm tm hiu ng thi th trng v xc nh nhu cu. Nhng d n cao co cho bn tip tc a ra u i v a dng ha phng thc bn hng. Nhiu ch u t, bao gm ch u t nc ngoi, by t nh u t vo phn khc nh gi phi chng Li sut tng mnh trong qu, gim dng tin u t vo th trng bt ng sn. Th trng chng khon yu, gi vng v t gi VND/USD bin ng mnh, khin th trng bt ng sn l knh u t an ton.

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TH TRNG CN H BN

Ciputra L
THNG S CHUNG, Q4 2010 CHUNG C Tng cung (cn) Ngun cung mi (cn)

Royal City
HNG SANG 2.186 0 CAO CP 14.774 841 TRUNG CP 47.864 1.868

L Vn Lng Residentials
BNH DN 12.403 132 TON TH TRNG 77.227 2.841

Gi cho bn trung bnh trn th trng 3.234 1.978 1.455 1.090 1.939 th cp (USD/m) % thay i gi trn th trng th cp 4,4% 4,4% 8,7% 11,2% 6,1% (theo qu) % thay i gi trn th trng th cp 5,5% 8,0% 11,8% 20,7% 9,3% (theo nm) Phn loi cn h chung c hin ti ch yu da vo gi c v cn nhc thm v v tr, cht lng, thng hiu V d theo gi: Hng sang (>2.500 USD/m), Cao cp (1.300-2.500 USD/m), Trung cp (800-1.500 USD/m), Bnh dn (<800 USD/m) Thng k ca chng ti khng bao gm cc d n nh x hi.

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TH TRNG CN H BN
NGUN CUNG MI

Ngun cung mi trong Q4/2010: 2.850 cn, tng 50% so vi Q3

Q4 thng l thi im th trng si ng Sau mt thi gian ch i do tc ng ca Ngh nh 71 v Thng t 16, cc ch u t sn sng tung sn phm ra th trng

Theo qun:
Qun H ng (L Vn Lng Residentials, Hanoi Times Towers) Qun Cu Giy (Green Park Tower) tip tc gi th phn quan trng.

Theo hnh thc bn hng:

Mt na s d n cho bn mi trong qu l di hnh thc Hp ng Gp vn, b gii hn cho bn 20% tng s cn h ca d n. Ngun cung mi ln trong nm 2011, khi nhng d n ny hon thin phn mng v c th bn 80% sn phm cn li ra th trng.

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TH TRNG CN H BN
GI BN TH CP Q4: Gi tng trn c 4 phn khc, sau 3 qu gi khng c nhiu bin ng Phn khc Trung cp v Bnh dn: tc tng gi 11% & 9% Hng sang & Cao cp: tng 4,5% Ch yu t cc d n i vo hot ng hoc mi bn giao Mt s d n cao cp gi gim Nguyn nhn: Nhiu d n c bn giao trong Q4. Gi ti nhng d n ny c th tng ti 20%. Q4 thng l thi im si ng nht trong nm: ngi dn mun n nh nh ca trc nm mi. NHU CU Nhu cu ln i vi sn phm Trung cp & Bnh dn. T l bn ca mt s d n c th ln ti 100%. L Vn Lng Residentials: 836 cn, bn ht sau 1-2 ngy cho bn. Ch yu l cn 50-60 m, gi khong 1-1,5 t VND/cn. Nhu cu i vi mt s sn phm cao cp cng kh tt (Royal City, Ciputra L) Kinh nghim v danh ting ca ch u t v ca d n

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TH TRNG NH T
TIU IM

Cleve

Mulberry Lane

Canal Park

Gi nh t tng trong c nm 2010 ti tt c cc qun trn a bn H Ni. Ch ring trong Qu 4, gi nh t tng trung bnh khong t 12%-15% so vi Qu 3. Cc khu vc tng mnh nht: 302 Cau Giay The Pride

Cc khu th mi ti qun Long Bin Gia Lm (trung bnh tng ~25% so vi qu trc) Cc khu th mi ti khu vc pha Ty nh qun H ng (trung bnh tng ~18% so vi qu trc) Cc d n tng gi so vi qu trc nh D n Vn Ph v D n Vn Kh tng ti 30%++.

Th trng nh t l knh u t mang li li nhun cao trong nm 2010 so vi cc knh u t khc nh kinh doanh ngoi t/vng v u t vo th trng chng khon.

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VN PHNG CHO THU

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VN PHNG CHO THU

TIU IM
Hai d n i vo hot ng trong Qu 4: Khu Trung tm: Sentinel Place (Hng A) 7.000 m2 NLA Khu pha Ty: Lilama 10 Tower (Hng B) 12.700 m2 NLA
Sentinel Place Lilama 10

Gi cho thu trung bnh n nh c hai phn khc Hng A & B Nhng ta nh ang c ci to c gi cho thu tng (Central Building, Vincom) Gi cho thu gim hu ht cc d n cn li

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VN PHNG CHO THU

T L TRNG Hng A: gim t ~25% xung ~18% so vi qu trc, ch yu t hai d n Charm Vit Tower v BIDV Tower
Nu khng tnh BIDV Tower & Charm Vit Tower, t l trng ca vn phng Hng A n nh mc 3% trong 2 nm qua.

Hng B: n nh mc 15% (qu trc: 16%) DIN TCH CHO THU Din tch thc cho thu thm t 32,600 m2 ca Hng A&B.
Hng A 58% 2 Hng B 42%

32.600 m l con s ln nht t nm 2007

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VN PHNG CHO THU

NGUN CUNG TNG LAI
V s lng: Ti khu vc ng a,Ba nh & khu vc pha Ty, ngun cung tip tc tng
Crown Complex (Q1 2011) Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower (Q4 2011)

V cht lng: Ti khu vc Trung tm, cc hot ng ci to ln ang din ra (Vincom City Towers, Central Building)

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VN PHNG CHO THU

NHU CU
Chuyn ng ca khch thu
Nhu cu v din tch ln ngy cng mnh M rng sang pha Ty

Nhng khch thu ln ti khu vc pha Ty

Ngn hng: Shinhan Bank, HSBC, First Bank Bo him: Korea Life Insurance, Ace Life Insurance Gio dc: Concordia Intl School Hanoi Cng ngh: FPT, S-Telecom

Yu cu thu
Hu ht yu cu thu vn tp trung din tch di 250 m2 Ngy cng nhiu yu cu thu din tch t 500 m2 tr ln.

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TH TRNG MT BNG BN L
THNG S CHUNG, Q4 2010 DEPARTMENT STORE Tng ngun cung (Din tch cho thu thc tnh, m) Ngun cung mi (Din tch cho thu thc tnh, m) T l trng (%) Gi cho thu trung bnh (USD/m/thng) Khu trung tm % thay i (theo nm) % thay i (theo qu) Ngoi khu trung tm % thay i (theo nm) % thay i (theo qu) $54,00 0,00% 0,00% $54,52 0,04% 0,00% $34,00 12,53% -5,81% $65,64 14,58% 0,00% $19,00 5,56% 0,00% 11.000 0 0,00% TTTM 97.171 0 13,62% SNH BN L 10.310 0 8,73%

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TH TRNG MT BNG BN L
TIU IM

Tng mc bn l tng trng mnh trn 30% so vi cng k nm trc Khng c ngun cung mi, tng cung gi nguyn mc 118.500 m2 Cc hot ng tiu biu: Hng Da Galleria kt thc vic cho thu di hn v bt u giai on cho thu ngn hn. D kin s m ca vo thng 4/2011 Pico Mall: cho thu 70% din tch, d kin m ca thng 3/2011 Vincom City Towers ang trong qu trnh nng cp ci to ton din Cc thng hiu tip tc m rng mt bng kinh doanh Thi trang : Aldo, Dr. Martens, Guciano, Chopard Thc phm : KFC, BBQ Chicken, SumoBBQ Siu th in my : Pico Plaza, E-Best, Hng Anh Rp chiu phim : Platinum Cinema (The Garden) T l trng tng nh do nhiu khch thu ri khi TTTM Grand Plaza Gi cho thu trung bnh ton th trng 45,58 USD/m2/ thng; khu vc ngoi trung tm: 36,60 USD/m2/ thng, gim 3,8% so vi qu trc (Grand Plaza p dng chnh sch h tr gi thu c thi hn cho khch thu)

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TH TRNG MT BNG BN L
TRIN VNG
Ngi tiu dng v thi quen ti trung tm thng mi Cc ca hng mt ph vn rt ph bin khu trung tm Cc trung tm thng mi pha Ty cn c tm nhn kinh doanh di hn v cc p dng chin lc marketing v cho thu mnh m hn Vi ngun cu tng nhanh lin tc v s xut hin ca thm nhiu d n chung c, khu th ln, m hnh trung tm thng mi quy m ln c d on s ngy cng ph bin trong tng lai Ngnh hng n ung v cc chui siu th in my d on s tip tc k hoch m rng mt bng kinh doanh mt cch mnh m. Thm vo , cc thng hiu thi trang trung cp quc t s l mt tro lu mi

Xuan Thuy Tower

Bac Ha Plaza

Grand Plaza

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CN H DCH V CHO THU

THNG S CHUNG Q4 2010

Tng Ngun cung (cn) Ngun cung mi (cn) T l phng trng (%) T l phng trng (%), khng k Grand Plaza Gi cho thu trung bnh (khng bao gm ph dch v v VAT) ti Q4 2010 % thay i (theo qu) % thay i (theo nm) Qun l nc ngoi 685 0 6% 6% $41,35 0,3% 4,2% T Qun l 1.436 231 23% 12% $27,86 5,2% 7,2% Tng 2.121 231 15% 7% $31,15 2,8% 4,9%

Ch : Ngun cung ch tnh cc d n t 30 phng tr ln.

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CN H DCH V CHO THU

TIU IM
Grand Plaza Serviced Residence khai trng Q4/2010 vi 180 phng. T l trng trung bnh gim trong Qu 4/2010: T l trng trung bnh l 7% (khng k Grand Plaza) (gim t mc 9% trong Q3/2010) T l trng cc d n quc t l 6% (gim t 12% trong Q3/2010) Tnh c Grand Plaza, t l trng mc 15% Gi cho thu trung bnh 31,15 USD/m2/thng, t thay i so vi qu trc. Xu hng cnh tranh ca th trng cn h cao cp cho thu thuc cc d n ln (nh Vincom Park Place, Golden Westlake, Sky City Tower). S lng khch hi thu tng trong nm 2010. Khch thu quan tm nhiu nht n a im, c s vt cht, cng ng dn c.

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CN H DCH V CHO THU

TRIN VNG
Ngun cung mi trong nm 2011:
u nm 2011: Crown Complex135 cn v Hoa Binh Green Apartments40 cn, d kin i vo hot ng trong Q1/2011 (d kin ban u Q4/2010). Cui nm 2011: Ngun cung mi ng ch bao gm Keangnam Hanoi LMT378 cn v Elegant Tay Ho 100 cn.

Cnh tranh gia tng t th trng thay th. Gi thu trung bnh th trng d kin din bin theo chiu hng gim do ngun cung gia tng t khu vc pha Ty, nhng gi thu c th khng i ti khu vc trung tm v cc qun Ty H, Ba nh trong ngn hn.
TON CNH TH TRNG T BO CO HNG QU CA CBRE |01/2011

Cn h dch v cho thu ti Sedona Suites

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TH TRNG KHCH SN
THNG S CHUNG, Q4 2010
5 SAO Tng cung n cui Qu 4 2010 (s phng) Ngun cung mi (s phng) Gi thu phng trung bnh (US$/m) % thay i (theo nm) % thay i (theo qu) Cng sut s dng phng trung bnh (%) % thay i (theo nm) % thay i (theo qu) Doanh thu phng trung bnh (US$/m) % thay i (theo nm) % thay i (theo qu) 3.130 0 $126,22 0,98% 6,31% 68,24% 5,76% 10,24% $85,50 9,28% 25,11% 4 SAO 1.510 106 $67,57 -9,97% -1,03% 64,55% 10,13% 4,70% $43,13 5,51% 6,09% 3 SAO 1.978 0 $38,55 -6,88% 0,78% 63,79% 2,31% 2,40% $24,46 -3,21% 4,29% TNG CUNG 6.618 106 $77,45 -3,77% 3,15% 65,53% 6,07% 5,78% $51,03 6,03% 15,58%

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TH TRNG KHCH SN
TIU IM
Chnh thc xp hng 5 sao cho Grand Plaza (300 phng, ng Trn Duy Hng) v 4 sao cho Silk Path (106 phng, ph Hng Bng); Sofitel Legend Metropole Hanoi c bnh chn l mt trong nhng khch sn tt nht ca khu vc chu v th gii. Lng khch du lch ti H Ni trong nm 2010: Khch quc t: 1,23 triu lt, tng 20% so vi nm trc. H Ni ng gp 24% lng lt khch quc t n Vit Nam trong nm 2010 Khch ni a: 7,39 triu lt, tng 10% so vi nm trc Cng sut phng v Doanh thu trn phng (RevPAR) tng. Sofitel Plaza Hanoi & Sheraton Hanoi ghi nhn mc tng ln nht, trn 20% so vi cng k nm trc Gi cho thu phng trung bnh: Khch sn 5 sao: tng nh so vi cng k nm trc. Khch sn Hanoi Horison v Hanoi Sofitel Plaza c mc tng cao nht (19% v 16%) Khch sn 4 sao v 3 sao c gi thu phng trung bnh gim so vi cng k nm trc

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TH TRNG KHCH SN
TRIN VNG
Ngun cung mi ln trong nm 2011: 184 phng khu vc trung tm, trn 1.000 phng khu vc pha Ty Hotel de lOpera Hanoi (khu trung tm, 107 phng) Oriental Pearl (khu trung tm, 87 phng) Crowne Plaza West Hanoi Grand Plaza Hanoi Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower Hot ng ca khch sn Grand Plaza Hanoi s gip nh gi trin vng cho cc khch sn hng sang khu vc Phm Hng Th trng hnh thnh 2 phn khc r rt hn: i tng khch thng gia s la chn cc khch sn mi khu vc pha Ty; khch du lch la chn khch sn trong khu vc Hon Kim Cc tp on qun l khch sn ang cnh tranh tm kim nhng v tr p D n phc hp Crown Plaza

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Cc khch sn cha c thng hiu s phi i mt vi cnh tranh gay gt

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Xin vui lng lin h vi a ch email bn di c thm chi tit.

quarterlyreports@cbrevietnam.com

XIN CM N!!!

2008 CB Richard Ellis, Inc. Chng ti thu thp nhng thng tin trn t cc ngun thng tin m chng ti cho l ng tin cy. Tuy nhin, chng ti khng kim chng tnh chnh xc ca cc thng tin v s khng bo m, oan chc hay i din cho cc thng tin ny. Cc thng tin ny c a ra vi gi thuyt l c kh nng c sai st, b st, thay i gi bn, gi thu v cc iu kin khc trc khi c bn, cho thu hay ti tr vn, hoc b thu hi m khng c thng bo. Chng ti ch a ra cc d on, quan im, gi nh hay nh gi ca mnh lm v d dn chng v cc thng tin ny c th s khng th hin c cc hot ng hin thi v tng lai ca ti sn. Qu v cng nh cc chuyn vin t vn v thu v php l ca qu v cn t mnh tin hnh iu tra kho st v ti sn v giao dch.

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