National Association of Home Builders - SURVEY May 2011

NAHB National Survey
Key findings from a national survey of 2,000 likely voters, conducted May 3-9, 2011.
#11190
Methodology
METHODOLOGY
On behalf of the National Association of Home Builders, Public Opinion Strategies and Lake Research Partners conducted a national survey of N=2,000 likely 2012 voters. The survey was conducted May 3-9, 2011 and has a margin of error of +2.19%. Due to the large sample size of our survey, we are able to show key data among both homeowners and renters. Fully 73% of voters in our survey identified themselves as homeowners, which is slightly higher than recent public polls among adults. However, this is not surprising as voters tend to be a higher educated, higher income audience than the adult population. In addition, due to the large sample size of our survey, we are able to show key data among key political swing areas. Throughout this presentation, we have broken out the data by seats held by House Republican freshmen, Charlie Cooks Swing House & Senate seats, as well as among Washington Post Reporter Chris Cillizzas Presidential Swing states.
NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011
METHODOLOGY
House GOP Freshman Seats:
Alabama, 2nd Alabama, 5th Arizona, 1st Arizona, 3rd Arizona, 5th Arkansas, 1st Arkansas, 2nd Arkansas, 3rd California, 19th Colorado, 3rd Colorado, 4th Florida, 12th Florida, 22nd Florida, 24th Florida, 25th Florida, 2nd Florida, 5th Florida, 8th Georgia, 7th Georgia, 8th Idaho, 1st Illinois, 10th Illinois, 11th Illinois, 14th Illinois, 17th Illinois, 8th Indiana, 4th Indiana, 8th Indiana, 9th Kansas, 1st Kansas, 3rd Kansas, 4th Louisiana, 3rd Maryland, 1st Michigan, 1st Michigan, 2nd Michigan, 3rd Michigan, 7th Minnesota, 8th Mississippi, 1st Mississippi, 4th Missouri, 4th Missouri, 7th Nevada, 3rd New Hampshire, 1st New Hampshire, 2nd New Jersey, 3rd New Mexico, 2nd New York, 13th New York, 19th New York, 20th New York, 24th New York, 25th North Carolina, 2nd North Dakota, At-Large Ohio, 15th Ohio, 16th Ohio, 18th Ohio, 1st Ohio, 6th Oklahoma, 5th Pennsylvania, 10th Pennsylvania, 11th Pennsylvania, 3rd Pennsylvania, 7th Pennsylvania, 8th South Carolina, 1st South Carolina, 3rd South Carolina, 4th South Carolina, 5th South Dakota, At-Large Tennessee, 3rd Tennessee, 4th Tennessee, 6th Tennessee, 8th Texas, 17th Texas, 23rd Texas, 27th Virginia, 2nd Virginia, 5th Virginia, 9th Washington, 3rd West Virginia, 1st Wisconsin, 7th Wisconsin, 8th
METHODOLOGY
Cook Report House and Senate Swing Seats:
U.S. House
Arkansas, 2 th California, 11 th California, 20 th California, 26 rd California, 3 th Connecticut, 5 nd Florida, 22 th Georgia, 12 nd Georgia, 2 th Illinois, 10 th Illinois, 13 th Illinois, 17 th Illinois, 8 nd Indiana, 2 rd Iowa, 3 th Iowa, 4 th Michigan, 9 th Minnesota, 8 rd Missouri, 3 Montana, At Large nd Nevada, 2 st New Hampshire, 1 nd New Hampshire, 2
nd
U.S. Senate
rd
New Jersey, 3 th New Jersey, 7 rd New York, 23 th New York, 25 th North Carolina, 11 th North Carolina, 13 nd North Carolina, 2 th North Carolina, 7 th North Carolina, 8 th Ohio, 13 th Ohio, 6 th Pennsylvania, 11 th Pennsylvania, 12 th Pennsylvania, 4 th Pennsylvania, 7 th Pennsylvania, 8 rd Texas, 23 th Texas, 27 nd Utah, 2 th Washington, 8 th Wisconsin, 7
New Mexico
North Dakota
West Virginia Missouri New England Montana
Virginia
Massachusetts Nevada Ohio Florida
METHODOLOGY
Chris Cillizzas Presidential Swing States:
Swing States Colorado Florida Indiana Iowa Minnesota Nevada New Hampshire New Mexico North Carolina Ohio Virginia
The Value of Home Ownership
Despite the housing crisis, ups and downs in the market and the decline in the value of homes, owning a home is still very much a part of the American dream. Even in this weak housing market that some may describe as risky, those Americans who do not currently own a home, especially those under the age of 50, overwhelmingly say they want to buy a home. Americans consider their homes as their single best investment.
What Americans are saying is that despite the ups and downs of the housing market and the risks, home ownership is worth the risk clear and simple.
Americans believe that owning their own home is as important as being successful at their job or being able to pay for a family members education.
%One of Most/Very Important
Staying out of debt or getting out of debt.

Saving enough for retirement.
Being successful at your job.
Owning your own home.

Being able to pay for yours or a family member's education. Being able to provide your family with more than you had when you were younger. NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011
Home ownership and a retirement savings program are considered by voters to be their best investments.
Which ONE of these would you say is your best investment?
A home A retirement savings program like an IRA or 401 (K) A savings account Stock market investments Ownership of a business Rental property
10
An overwhelming number of Americans say owning a home is worth the ups and downs of the housing market.
Some people say that owning a home is the best long-term investment they can make and is worth the risk of ups and downs in the housing market. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
+52
43% Strongly
Agree
9% Strongly Disagree
11
That sentiment is strong among renters and those who currently owe more than their home is worth.
By Residence Type
Among Those Who Owe More On Their Home Than It Is Worth
+53
+64
+36
+46
+31
42% Strgly
50% Strgly
39% Strgly 15% Strgly DisAgree agree
40% Strgly 29% Strgly 13% Strgly DisAgree agree 13% Strgly DisAgree agree
DisAgree agree
DisAgree agree
12
And, there is agreement across age groups.

By Age
+59
+46
+50
+49
+61
41% Strgly
41% Strgly
45% Strgly
42% Strgly
50% Strgly
DisAgree agree
DisAgree agree
DisAgree agree
DisAgree agree
DisAgree agree
13
Attitudes of Homeowners
Almost every homeowner is happy with their decision to own a home.

How happy would you say you are with your decision to own a home? (N=1,460)
Among Those "Under Water"
82% Very
Happy Unhappy
83% 17%
Happy
Unhappy
15
Fully 80% of homeowners would advise a close friend or family member just starting out to buy a home. (Thats true even among those homeowners under water on their mortgage.)
And, would you advise a member of your family or a close personal friend just starting out to buy a home in order to build long-term assets, or do you think owning a home is too risky of an investment? (N=1,460)
Total and Among Those Who Owe More On Their Home Than It Is Worth
Yes, Would Advise to Buy
No, Too Risky
Yes, Would Advise to Buy
No, Too Risky
16
Attitudes of Non-Homeowners
Nearly three-fourths of voters who do not currently own a home say that it is a goal of theirs to eventually buy one.
Is one of your goals to eventually buy a home, or is that NOT a goal of yours? (N=517)
+48
Yes
No
18
Younger voters (those most likely to be in the market for a home in the next few years), overwhelmingly say buying a home is a goal of theirs.
Is one of your goals to eventually buy a home, or is that NOT a goal of yours? (N=517)
By Age
18-54 55+ 83%-14% 33%-66%
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
19
The biggest barrier for those who want to own a home is money for a down payment and closing costs.
And, which one of the following would you say is your biggest barrier to buying a home? Is it... (N=376) Saving for a down payment and closing costs
Job uncertainty
Your credit score
Inability to get a loan
Your current debt Concerns that if home prices drop, your investment could be worth less than what you paid NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011
20
The Politics of Housing: Encouraging Home Ownership
There is a consensus across party lines and among voters in all swing areas that it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal government to provide tax incentives to promote homeownership. Voters message to Washington: Leave the mortgage interest deduction alone. By a two-to-one margin, voters say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who voted to eliminate the MID.
Americans across party lines believe it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal government to provide tax incentives to encourage home ownership.
Now, as you may know, since the federal income tax was introduced in 1913, the federal government has used the tax code to encourage home-ownership. In general, do you think it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal government to provide tax incentives to promote home-ownership or do you think that is not a good idea?
Total
By Party
By Tea Party Support
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
23
This sentiment shows little variation by ethnicity.

By Ethnicity
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
24
And, voters in Americas key "swing areas" also agree.

Among GOP Freshman Seats
Among Cillizza Presidential Swing States
Among Cook Report Senate
Among Cook Report House
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
25
The Politics of Housing: Raising the Down Payment Requirement
Few voters have heard anything about proposals to raise the down payment requirements when buying a home.
Have you seen, read or heard anything about proposals being considered in Washington regarding raising down payment requirements when purchasing a home?
-62
Yes
No
27
But, fully 92% of those who have heard believe that will make it more difficult to buy a home.
And, do you believe these proposed changes will make it easier or more difficult to buy a home? (N=188)
-87
38% Much More
Easier
More Difficult
28
Opinions are divided on this issue; those most opposed tend to be Americans who would be in the market to purchase a home in the future.
Now, Id like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one Requiring that home buyers put a (minimum) of twenty percent down when they purchase a home.
Total
By Residence Type/Age
-0-
-17
+6
+16
+32
-20
+13
28% 29% Strg Strg
Fav Opp
Fav Opp
Fav Opp
Fav Opp
Fav Opp
Fav Opp
Fav Opp
29
The Politics of Housing: The Mortgage Interest Deduction
All proposals to change the home mortgage interest deduction are opposed by a majority of Americans.
% Strongly Oppose
Eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on their tax returns. Lowering the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on their tax returns. Eliminating the deduction for interest paid on home equity loans. Limiting the mortgage interest deduction for those earning over $250,000 per year. Scaling back the mortgage interest deduction for homeowners with mortgages of $500,000 or more. Eliminating the deduction for interest paid for a second or vacation home.
%Total Oppose
31
A strong majority of voters oppose eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction.
Now, Id like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one Eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on their tax returns.
Total
By Party
53% Strongly
58% Strongly
52% Strongly
50% Strongly
Favor
Oppose
Favor
Oppose
Favor
Oppose
Favor
Oppose
32
And, lowering the mortgage interest deduction is also rejected by voters across party lines.
Now, Id like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one Lowering the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on their tax returns.
Total
By Party
39% Strong 15% Strong 11% Strong
45% Strong
38% Strong
12% Strong 21% Strong
35% Strong
Favor
Oppose
Favor
Oppose
Favor
Oppose
Favor
Oppose
33
Americans also reject eliminating the deduction for interest paid on home equity loans.
Now, Id like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one Eliminating the deduction for interest paid on home equity loans.
Total
By Party
36% Strong
42% Strong
36% Strong
30% Strong
Favor
Oppose
Favor
Oppose
Favor
Oppose
Favor
Oppose
34
And, a majority oppose eliminating the deduction for interest paid for a second or vacation home.
Now, Id like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one Eliminating the deduction for interest paid for a second or vacation home.
Total
By Party
22% Strongly Favor
29% Strongly 17% Strongly Oppose Favor
33% Strongly
27% 26% Strongly Strongly Favor Oppose
23% Strongly Favor
28% Strongly
Oppose
Oppose
35
A majority even oppose scaling back the home mortgage interest deduction for homeowners with large mortgages or those with higher incomes.
Now, Id like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one Scaling back the mortgage interest deduction for homeowners with mortgages of $500,000 or more. Limiting the mortgage interest deduction for those earning over $250,000 per year.
19% Strongly Favor
30% Strongly
22% Strongly Favor
33% Strongly
Oppose
Oppose
36
When voters are read two opposing points of view on eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction...
Now, Id like to read you two different opinions on eliminating the mortgage interest deduction...
Those who favor this proposal say that the benefits of this deduction go disproportionately to high income Americans and that eliminating it will help reduce the deficit by increasing government revenue.
while
Opponents of this proposal say that the mortgage interest deduction helps families achieve home ownership, which helps owners build assets for the middle class and provides stability to families.
37
Nearly two-thirds of voters oppose eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction, with strong intensity in opposition.
Do you favor or oppose a proposal to eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction?
Total
By Party
44% Strongly 13% Strongly Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose
38
A majority of voters across party lines say they would be less likely to support a candidate for Congress who wanted to eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction.
Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who proposed to eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction?
Total
By Party
By Tea Party Support
33% Much
More Less
More Less
More Less
More Less
More Less
More Less
39
And, voters in Americas swing seats would be less likely to support a candidate who wanted to eliminate the mortgage interest deduction.
Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who proposed to eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction? Among GOP Freshman Seats Among Cillizza Presidential Swing States Among Cook Report Senate Among Cook Report House
More
Less
More
Less
More
Less
More
Less
40
Voter Beliefs
Owning a home is part of the American dream. A strong housing industry means more jobs and more money in our communities.
Voters link homeownership to retirement security.
Homeownership as part of the American Dream and the housing industry's linkage to jobs resonates strongly with voters.
%Total Convincing
For many people, owning a home is part of their American Dream: It creates a stronger community, a place to raise a family, and is their most valued stable investment for their childrens college education and their own retirement and well-being. We need to strengthen the housing market so that more Americans can achieve homeownership.
A strong housing industry means more jobs and more money in our communities. Every new single-family home built creates three full-time jobs and increases the property tax base that supports local schools. We need to strengthen the housing market to keep our local economies growing and creating jobs.
43
Homeownership as an investment and as a middle class value also touch voters.

%Total Convincing
Many Americans have planned their retirement by being able to live in the homes they have now paid off, and many others plan to use their investment in their homes to live on in retirement. To help ensure secure retirement for millions, we need to stabilize the housing market.
Home ownership is key to having a strong middle class and helping people build toward the American dream. The recent housing crisis threatened to keep that out of reach for too many Americans. We need policies that encourage home ownership if we want to rebuild the middle class.
44
Bottom Line
BOTTOM LINE
Owning a home is a core value and still part of the American dream. Voters want the government to develop policies that will encourage growth in the housing market.
And, they do NOT want the government to make it harder for people to achieve the American dream.
46
For More Information:

NAHB Communications communications@nahb.org 1-800-368-5242 x8409
214 North Fayette Street Alexandria, Virginia 22314 Phone: (703) 836-7655 Web: www.pos.org
1726 M St., NW, Suite 1100 Washington, DC 20036 Phone: (202) 776-9066 Web: www. lakeresearch.org #11190

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NAHB National Survey

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

The Value of Home Ownership

Staying out of debt or getting out of debt.

Being successful at your job.

Owning your own home.

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

Among Those Who Owe More On Their Home Than It Is Worth

39% Strgly 15% Strgly DisAgree agree

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

And, there is agreement across age groups.

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

Almost every homeowner is happy with their decision to own a home.

Among Those "Under Water"

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

Yes, Would Advise to Buy

No, Too Risky

Yes, Would Advise to Buy

No, Too Risky

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

Your credit score

Inability to get a loan

The Politics of Housing: Encouraging Home Ownership

By Tea Party Support

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

This sentiment shows little variation by ethnicity.

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

And, voters in Americas key "swing areas" also agree.

Among GOP Freshman Seats

Among Cillizza Presidential Swing States

Among Cook Report Senate

Among Cook Report House

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

The Politics of Housing: Raising the Down Payment Requirement

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

38% Much More

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

28% 29% Strg Strg

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

The Politics of Housing: The Mortgage Interest Deduction

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

39% Strong 15% Strong 11% Strong

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

22% Strongly Favor

29% Strongly 17% Strongly Oppose Favor

27% 26% Strongly Strongly Favor Oppose

23% Strongly Favor

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

19% Strongly Favor

22% Strongly Favor

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

By Tea Party Support

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

Voters link homeownership to retirement security.