.

2008


.

2011

 : .

1985
.
/
,

" "

" ".
7

,
' .
2
2008. ,
. ,

. 10

,

.

 : .

1: 2008
.
1.1 ......................4
1.2 1: (Fiat money)........12
1.3 2: .................................................................................................15
1.4 3: boom
.....................................................................20
1.5 4: ...............27
1.6 5: ..............................................32

2: -
.
2.1 ...........................................................41
2.2 ..................................................46
2.3 ....................49
2.4 .........................51
2.5 ............................54
2.6 - ...................57

 : .

1
2008
.

1. 1
.

2007-8, ,
,


.

,
, 1929.
'29,
,
-.
,
( )
,
,
(double dip recession),


( ) ,

.
,
.

 : .

,
(;).
,
2007-8.
,
, 1960 .
,

, ,
,
, - ,
.
ICT ,

.

. ,
25 ,
- ,
. ,
, , ,
.. ,

(financial globalization) . M
,
,
,
.
,

,

. . Arun Motianey, RGE
Monitor, Super Cycles(2010) : "
-
. ,
(boom) (bust)."

25, "
( ,
), ,

 : .

,

.
,
, ." [1].
Krugman
:
"

,
-.
,
" " (transmission
mechanism),
.
(BNP
Paribas), ...

.."[2].
,
,
,

- .
,
-,
. ;
,
, ;

.
:
) ,

.
,
,
.
) ,
"" ,
2000

 : .

2008.
,
, .
) , ,

. ,
,
2007-8.
Lewitt, "
financialization (:
)
,
"*3]. Braudel "
(financialization: )
"*4].
Motianey,
, '70,

. "
, .
(13.4% 1974
) ,
" *5+, Nixon
Shock.
Bretton-Woods,
( ..)
.

,
,
Fiat money . ,
,
,
.
,
. , ,
(
),
, .
, ,

 : .

,
.
Motianey, Fiat
money ,
'70 (
), "
" ( -)
,
. : "
,
(confidence-backed currency),

.
.." *6+.
,
. ,
2007-8
2009, ,
.
(FED) Ben S. Bernanke, 2009, "
1930
." FED Alan
Grinspan, : " ,
,
" *7+

.
.

,
. ,
2009,
18 .
,
, FED ,

.
,

,

 : .

double-dip recession( W).

1.1
2007-11.

:
1) ,
, ,

, ,
,
2000.
Motianey: "
(:
)

,
. ,
"[8].
,

.
2) ,

.

 : .

,
, , ,

.
, ,
.
,
-,
,
.

.
3) , ,
,
.
,
,
( ),
-
.
,
, ,
.

1.2
2003-2009.

10

 : .

4) ,
FED,
, 4
,
.
, ,

.
5) ,
(double-dip recession),
,
. ,
, ,

,
.
,
,

,
.
,
.


. ,
8 .

11

 : .

1.2 1 :
(Fiat money).

.

,
1973 Nixon shock,

2008.
*9+ *10+,
boom,
,
,
1944, 44 3 ,
Bretton Woods.
,
( ),
,
,
.
Bretton Woods, ,

. , '70
.
,
, ,

.

(
, ),
'73 ( )
Bretton Woods
fiat money,
,
.

12

 : .

1.3 1973.

.
.
Motianey : "
1973. 8%
1974, 13.4%.
,
.
1973 1979 2.4%,
1950 '70.
'70,
, 1870" [11].
Bretton Woods,
.
, , ,

,
.
,

fiat money.
Volcker,
.
, boom
,
,
1983 ( :

13

 : .

).
Volcker, .
'73 '74,
. ,
.
'73
,
Yom Kippur.
( ),
. ,
, ,
.
Bretton Woods, ,

.
,
, '71 ( Nixon shock)
.

'74,
.

1.4 fiat money, Paul Volcker.

14

 : .

,
,
fiat money.
financialization, ,
,
(
). (
, , , ..), :
,
:
2008.

1.3 2 :
.

,

(Krugman, Gorton, Motianey, Lewitt
..) . boom ,

,
.



.
3 , : "

.
, ,
,
, ,
".
,
,

. , ,

15

 : .

:
,

,
.

(financial innovation),

. , ,
, (marketing)
,
,

. Robert Kuttner [12],
,
'20 ,
.
,
, ,
ICT,
. ,
, 2000-10,
'20, leverage
( /, ),

. ,



.
,
Guttner,
1:50. :
(capital structure)
,
.
leverage
, 2 ,

,
.

16

 : .

Bank

Assets

Bank of America
Citigroup
JPMorgan
Wells Fargo

$1,715B
$2,187B
$1,562B
$575B

Shareholder
Equity
$146.8B
$113.6B
$123.2B
$47.6B

Ratio
11.7
19.2
12.7
12.0

1.1 leverage /
(2010).

40% .
Bank
Deutsche Bank
UBS
Credit Suisse
Fortis
Dexia
BNP Paribas
Barclays
RBS

Assets

Shareholder
Equity
2,020B 38.5B
Fr2,272B Fr42.5B
Fr1,360B Fr59.88B
871B
34.28B
604B
16.4B
1,694B 59.4B
1,227B 32.5B
1,990B 91.48B

Ratio
52.0
53.4
22.7
25.5
36.8
28.5
37.8
21.7

1.2 leverage /
(2010).

,

.



,
,
.


. FED Alan Grinspan
2004 : "

,

17

 : .

"[13].

.
,
.

.
,
Glass-Steagal '32,
,
.
:
16 1933: GlassSteagall Act,

.
: " : ,
,
.
.
FED ( discount window), ,
, .


(bank runs)" [14].
,
,
, 2000
.
1970 : , Freddie Mac,
(GSE),
,
,
.
,
mortgage asset securities.
1977: Community Reinvestment Act

.

18

 : .

,
.
1986: Tax Reform Act (TRA) 1986

,
.
,
.
705 . 1974( 60%
), 7.4 . 2000 14.5 . 2008,
134% .

.
1994: Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act,
1994 (IBBEA),
.
1999:
,
Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act ( "Financial Services Modernization Act").

Glass-Steagall Act 1933. ,
,

. Phil
Gramm, Jim Leach Thomas J. Bliley.
,

.

,
. ICT,
,

.
,
,
.
*15+,
,

19

 : .

,
boom,
.

1.4 3 : boom
.

(boom),
,
,
.
,
,
,

.

,
,
. 2000 dot-com
(dot-com bubble). , 2007-8
subrime crisis.
,
FED,
.

,

. 1990,


..

20

 : .

, ,

.
ICT, .
,
, 2000
4%, . '00
,
,
.
-,
. ,
, ,
,
, 24
. 2000,
- (
dot-com )
. ,


.

1.5 .
.
FED,

2000,
,

21

 : .

, 2000.
.
,
, Zandi
: " / (ratio Price/Earnings)
. ' ,
P/E S&P 500 ( 500
),
15... 2000, P/E
S&P 500, 45.
, ." [16]

1.6 / 500
.
,

,

.
. ,
ENRON 2001,
.
, ,
,
.
,

22

 : .

ENRON,
11 . ,
3 90 1 .
- 2008,
.
FED
2000 2001,
,
.
: "
12 1 2000, $148.3 .
$145.
1995-2000.
: " ,
, 90 (there
were no after '90s) " [17].
,

( 1840,
1920, 1950).

.
,
'73
'08.
, 200001, ,
2000
. , , .
.
'97 (
'97),
'98, '90 .
,

.
,
.
2000
2008:

23

 : .

) ,
, .
) ,
, .
)
. ,
.
)
FED, ,
,
.

1.7 /
/R .

,
.
,
.

24

 : .

/ ,
,
-,

.
'95-'00
,

*18+.
,

. , ,
,
,
.

, ,
, , FED,
2000-01.
6.5% 2000 11 ,
FED
1,75% 2000,
.
,
,
,
2008. ,
.
, ,
, ,
, .
, '29
, .

, ,
. FED
" ,

".
,

25

 : .

,
.

2000, ,
. ,
,
,
. , ,
(
)
.
.
, ,
( )
,

. 1993,
FED, ,
.
, G.W. Bush 2002,
5.5
Fannie Mae 440 .$ .
2003 FED
1%,
. ,
, ,
: 2003-07
292%,
332.$ 1.3$.
Fannie Mae,
,
. ,
,
, ,
.

26

 : .

1.5 4 :
.

,
, ,
. ,
(fallacy of composition)
.
. ,
(
), ,
, .
subprime mortgages, ,
Lewitt "
(sic) ,
" *19+.
,
. ,
,
,
, ,
,
.
,
, , ,

. , ,
,
, 2007,
,
,
. ,
.
,
. ,
,
,
.

27

 : .

,
Ben Bernanke,
Independent Community Bankers of America, FED,
,
, Fannie Mae Freddie Mac,
,
*20+.
FED,
,
. , 12 5'.
,
.
1,3 .$
7 .$!
,
,

,
( )
.
,
, 1995 16% 30% .
2007
23% 63% ,
5 .

1.8
( )
.

28

 : .

2007,
,
, . ,
, . ,
,
, ,
.
,
:
2007
20 : Merill Lynch
800$,
.
:

,
, BNP Paribas
, . FED
100.$.
9 : BNP Paribas,
funds,
, ("complete evaporation of
liquidity"). ,
.
,

95. ,
.
10 : ,

260 . , , 215.
4 : FED
, Libor 1998,
6.8%, .

29

 : .

17 : FED, ,
, ,
, .
6 : ,

, Freddie Mac Fannie
Mae.
2008
2-21 : .
24 : (NAR) ,
25
. ,
.
16 : Bear Stearns JPMorgan Chase, 2
,
. FED,
30. Bear Stearn.
7 : FED Fannie Mae
Freddie Mac, ,
,
12 . ! ,
.
14 : Lehman Brothers
Merrill Lynch
Bank of America. , Lehman Brothers
,
, .
16-17 : Moody's Standard and Poor's AIG,
.
. FED ,
AIG 85 . .
1 : HR1424,
FED, 700.
.
.
6-10 :
75 , 40%

30

 : .

2007. Standard & Poor's 500, 500

42.5% 1 .
8 :
700. .

, Warren Buffett George Soros
.
24 : Citigroup,
,
, 60%.
20. ,
Citigroup, 45 . .
1 : (National Bureau of
Economic Research)
2007. 6.7%
.
22 2009:
2009 3% ' .
,
2008,
1929. ,
,
("too big to fail").
Lehman Brothers ,
,

. ,
, ,

.
,
,
Timothy Geithner,
, Club . 2008:
"
boom,
...
2007,
4.$...
10$...

31

 : .

(bank run),
,
."
,
. ,

,
, , ,
,
. (
) ,
,
( ) ""

. 2008,
, ,

, -
.

1.6 5 :

,
, (

Timothy Geithner ). ,

. ,

,
. ,
,

.
,
. , ,

32

 : .

.
( )
2008,
,

. ,
.
, -

.

1.9 leverage
.
2007-10,

. Paul
De Grauwe *21+, ,
10. , 16
,
.
,
. -
,
-
. ,
PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain),

33

 : .

,
,
.
, PIIGS, ,
15 100%.
,
,
.
3%,
,
, . 2007,
,
,
. , (
),
, ,

.
, , (spread)
700 ,
1000 . ,

,
.
,
, ..
,
. ,
..,
,
.
,
,
:
) : ,

. ,
(
), .

34

 : .

) ,
, ,
.
) ,
,
.
,
,
.
,
, , ,
.
, PIIGS,
2000-10, ,
.
,
,
.
,

.
,
,
,
,
, ( ), .

.
, .

.
,
.
,
,
,
. , ,
, .
,
,
,

35

 : .

, 3%.
,
,
, ,
.
"greek statistics" ,

.
, , -
,
.
,
, .
,
: ,
15% [22].
,
,
.
2009, ,
6% 12,7%,

. 2010,
120% , 70%
. 2010,
Standard & Poor's , ,
,
junk,
. ,
, 30-50%
. 2 2010, ,
,
110. .
,
( , )
.
,
2010. ,

( ),
2008,

36

 : .

. ,
. 2010,
,
.
, 77 . ,

. ,

,
,

.
,

. , ,
,
,
, .
, - , ,
. ,
- ,

, . ,
,
,
,
.
,
, ,
.
, ,
.
, ,
.. ,
.
.
,
de Grauwe[23]: "
.
. ,
- ,

37

 : .

(
) ."
.
,
. ,
,

.

.
, ,

.
.
,
,
, ,
,
.
, .
, Forbes 2010,
"
(PIGS) 353. $, 17% 2 .$
" *24+. Chinapost
[25] " 1,1 .
. 38% 3,1 .
,
." ,
,
.
,
.
,
.
2009 2010,
22%,
,
.

38

 : .

1.10 -
.

, ,
,
,
, ( )
.
,
,
.

,
,
,
,
. ,
,
.
,

.
, ,
, -
.

,
, ()
. ,
,

39

 : .

,
. ,
,
,
.

40

 : .

2
-
.

2.1 .

,
,
.

,
,

, ,
, ,
.


.
,
, booms
busts, ,
.
,

.
1929,
,

41

 : .

.
,
2
.
,
.

.
.

.

() .
,

.
,
,

.


.
,
.

Modern Money Mechanics FED.

.

.

.
10%,


(bank run).
, 10%
,

42

 : .

. 90%
,
.
10- (
) .
, ,
, / .


.
, .
, ,

.
, ,
.
, ,


.
,
.
, ( 10)
.

. ,
, .
,
.
.
,
( ,
..)
,
.
.
,
.
, .
,

43

 : .

( )
.

.
,
,
.

,

.
( ) .
,
.
.

.

.
.

.

.
-
.
,
.
. ,


.
,
,
. ,

.

,
.

44

 : .

- ,
:
) .
,

fiat money.
)
.
,
,

. ,
,

.

2.1 / .

45

 : .

2.2 .

,
.

.
,

.
,
1 ,
.

,

.
,
. ,
,
.
.
:

,
,
,
.
,
.
,
.
,
,

46

 : .

,
.
, ,
, ,

,
() .
,
,
. ,

, ,
.
, --, ,
,
, -
, .
, ,
,

.
,
, ,
( ), .
, , ,
, ,
(
).
( ,
),
() ,
.
, , ,
,
,
.
,
.

47

 : .

Case1:
H .

Price: undefined

Case 2:
Price: Labour(hours)
.
Case 3:

Price: Labour(hours)*(1+ - ).

E , .
,
Labour(hours)< max money given by consumer.
,
(
),

, .
,

.
, ,

,

,
.
,
.
, ,
, ,

. .
, ,
,

, ,

48

 : .

. ,
.
,
,

.

2.3 .

2008,
.
financialization, "

, ..
"[26]. Lewitt
[27]: " Financialization, ,
".
Financialization,
, ,

.
financial globalization (
),


. Braudel, "

". ,
financialization,
,
, .
financialization,
,

49

 : .

,

. Motianey *28+ "
,
(Progressive Era),

.
. Financialization
,
". Motianey,

financialization,
.
Financialization, ,
,
Lewitt [29].

2.2

.

FIRE (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate)
,
, 1985

50

 : .

FIRE. 1985

,
.
,
.

, ,
.

"
, ,
. ,
" *30+.

.
( ) ,
.
2008,


.
,
.
- ,

, .

2.4 .

,
-

. ,
,
,
.

51

 : .

,
,

.
,
.
: "

. ,

,
,
, "[31].
,
( )
(;).
,
2008,
,

.
,
,
,
. ,
( ) .
,
,
.


.
,
,
,
.
,
.
,

52

 : .

,
:
) H
.
) H
,
,
. ,
,
,
.
) ,
,
.


.
, .

,

.
.

,
-
.
.
.
,
,


.
, ,
.

53

 : .

, ,
,

,
.

,
.
,
,

,
. ,
, ,

.

,

fiat money ;
.

2.5 .

,
- .
:

.
.
.
.
.
.
.

54

 : .

.
.
,
,
.
- ,
,
,

. ,
,
.

,
.
,

.
,

.
,

.
,
: ) , )
)
.
,
leverage
() .

. ,
, .
;
;
,
;
,
,
..;

55

 : .

, fiat money,
.
.
,
.

, ,

.
, Detlev Schlicther [32]:
"
,

.
. ,
,
..
..

.
fiat money . ,
.
; ,
."

,
,


fiat money.
,
.

,

. ,
.

,

56

 : .

.

.
, ,
.

.


272 . !
, ..

!
,

. ,

,
. .

. .

2.6 - .

, :
.
, ,
:
,
, ,
.
,
, ,
, 2000 ,

, -.
,
, ,

57

 : .

.

.
(
),

,
.
,
,
,

, .
,
,
( ).
,
. ,
,
,

.
(
, ..),
,
(),
. ,
.

,
,
.
,
,
.
(
),
,
,
.

58

 : .

,
,
, ,
, .

[1] SuperCycles: The new economic force transforming Global Markets and
Investment Strategy, Arun Motianey (2010), .109.
[2] The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008 (2009), Paul Krugman
.177.
[3] The Death Of Capital; How Creative Policy Can Restore Stability (2010), Lewitt,
.118.
[4] Civilization and Capitalism (1979), Fernand Braudel.
[5] SuperCycles: The new economic force transforming Global Markets and
Investment Strategy, Arun Motianey (2010) , .150.
[6] SuperCycles: The new economic force transforming Global Markets and
Investment Strategy, Arun Motianey (2010), .155.
[7] Bloomberg, Scott Lanman and Craig Torres - September 15, 2009 21:42 EDT.

59

 : .

[8] SuperCycles: The new economic force transforming Global Markets and
Investment Strategy, Arun Motianey (2010), .180.
[9] The Age of Extremes: The Short Twentieth Century 1914-1991, Eric Hobsbawm,
Penguin 1994 .
[10] Boom, Bust and Echo: Profiting from the Demographic Shift in the 21st Century,
David Foot, 1997.
[11] SuperCycles: The new economic force transforming Global Markets and
Investment Strategy, Arun Motianey (2010), .151.
[12] estimony of Robert Kuttner before the Committee on Financial Services
Rep. Barney Frank, Chairman U.S. House of Representatives Washington, D.C.
October 2, 2007.
[13] Speech by Chairman Alan Greenspan at the American Bankers Association
Annual Convention, New York, New York October 5, 2004.
[14] The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008 (2009), Paul
Krugman .166.
[15] The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008 (2009), Paul
Krugman .77.
*16+ Financial Shock; A 360 Look at the Subprime Mortgage Implosion (2009), Mark
Zandi, .165.
[17] What is good for Goldman Sachs is good for America: The origins of the current
crisis, Robert Brenner, Center for Social Theory and Comparative History
UCLA, 18 April 2009.
[18] The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008 (2009), Paul
Krugman .157.
[19] The Death Of Capital; How Creative Policy Can Restore Stability (2010), Lewitt,
.63.
[20] GSE Portfolios, Systemic Risk, and Affordable Housing,
Independent Community Bankers of America's Annual Convention and Techworld,
(), FED Ben S. Bernanke, 6 2007.
[21] CEPS Policy Brief, What kind of governance for the eurozone?, Paul De Grauwe,
September 2010.
[22] Greeces Debt Crisis: Overview, Policy Responses, and Implications, CRS Report
for Congress, April 27, 2010.
[23] CEPS Policy Brief, What kind of governance for the eurozone?, Paul De Grauwe
(September 2010).
[24] http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlenzner/2010/12/14/piigs-owe-over-2-trillion-tou-s-and-european-banks/, December 2010.
[25] http://www.chinapost.com.tw/commentary/ap/2010/06/10/260101/Howmuch.htm, June 2010.
[26] Stock Market Capitalism: Welfare Capitalism: Japan and Germany versus the
Anglo-Saxons (Japan Business and Economics Series), Ronald Dore, 2002.
[27] The Death Of Capital; How Creative Policy Can Restore Stability (2010), Lewitt ,
.118
[28] SuperCycles: The new economic force transforming Global Markets and
Investment Strategy, Arun Motianey (2010), .130.
[29] The Death Of Capital; How Creative Policy Can Restore Stability (2010), Lewitt,

60

 : .

.128.
[30] , .15.
[31] John Maynard Keyns, The General Theory Of Employment Interest And Money
. 107
[32] Greece Should Return to a Gold Standard, http://papermoneycollapse.
com/2011/06/greece-should-return-to-a-gold-standard, by Detlev Schlichter on June
23, 2011.

61

 : .

1.1.
2007-11.......................................................................................................................9
1.2:
2003-2009...................................................10
1.3: 1973.

.
........................................13
1.4: fiat money, Paul Volcker........................................14
1.5: .
..........................21
1.6: / 500
...............................................................22
1.7: /
/R .............................................24
1.8:
( )
.....................................................................................................................28
1.9: leverage
........................................................................................................33
1.10: -
....................................................................................39
2.1: / ...45
2.2:

............................................................................................................50

62

 : .

1.1: leverage /
(2010).....................................................................................................17
1.2: leverage /
(2010).....................................................................................................17

63