Schooloftrade.com Market Commentary 7.12.

11

News comes out early this morning, we are hoping to see some early volume off this news. We have news from CAD as well, so crude oil futures will be on our radar. All eyes are on the FOMC Meeting minutes later this morning. Get in early, get your profit early, and exit early ahead of the news. US Dollar Index: At highs of the channel Overbought momentum BMT is below us (price magnet) Short term bear price channel

This tells us we have reversed off the new highs and now we look to break back to the lows of the range were in. We speculate by saying the dollar will need to break below 76.400 to really start moving down. Crude Oil is in the middle of its larger price channel, so use caution for longer term trading. Strong bear channels tell us to keep selling new lower lows with retracements, and as price rises look to sell at overhead resistance. Inside/Outside day on crude oil chopping around the PLOD. You can easily see the PLOD is very sloppy, most likely because traders lack confidence of where price is going next. The lack of movement back to the HIGHS on crude oil after testing above the PLOD tells us the buyers are very weak, the sellers are still in control, but there is very little conviction at this moment.

What is a High Percentage Trade? High % Pattern High % Location High % Time of Day

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Schooloftrade.com Market Commentary 7.12.11

2. I give you the exact entry details so it proves this method works to my guests.

845am est We review the dollar index and we see a strong bear price channel taking the DX off the highs into the transitional area of 76.400. I will be watching this US Dollar to see where it goes from here. If the dollar bounces off support im then looking for selling opportunities. If the dollar trades sideways I then look for sideways ranges and trade them on gold and crude oil. If the dollar keeps moving down through support we now look for buying opportunities.

Gold Futures are in a wait and see situation right now. We are at the highs of the wedge so I want to sell the highs, but if we drop to the lows the lows are in the middle and the BMT/Middle of the range will be higher risk. My plan of attack on gold will be to use the inside day trading range first, and then look for breakouts/failures to go from there. Buying the lows, selling the highs, avoiding the middles and the fake-out breakouts. If we make new highs I will consider buying a pullback, and if we make new lows selling a retracement. Inside day tells me to beware the fake-out breakouts. If price falls: Im buying at support first, then selling retracements. Im buying the PLOD (inside day) as support Im selling below the PLOD (outside day) as resistance Buying at support because of the long term bull price channel Buying at 41.6, 40.2, 39.0, 36.7, 33.5, 25.5, 22.2 Avoid the BMT at 1530.4 but the BMT makes a great final profit target. Swing trade short sets up if price breaks below the 22.2 area (144range chart)

If price rises: Im selling at resistance first, then buying pullbacks as resistance turns to support. Bull price channel says to buy pullbacks once we make new highs, but the inside day tells me to beware the fake-out breakouts at the highs. Selling the HOD 54.4, selling the PHOD 57.6 Selling overhead resistance at 56.1, 59.0, 60.30, 62.0 Above 62.0 we are in the lows of the bull channel so look to buy a pullback.

900am est My next trade on gold will be to sell the highs of the day at 54.4 or to buy the PLOD at 42.1.

Schooloftrade.com Market Commentary 7.12.11

We need to wait for price to move higher or lower into that area. We hear from tim geithner, the debt ceiling will be increased, and tax reform will be a part of it. 930am est We review crude oil futures and not much has changed since our first look at 745am est this morning. Were in the middle of the major bear price channel At the lows of the major sideways range Strong bear price channel coming off the highs with the BMT overhead as a price magnet. (side notethe US Dollar Index is now trading sideways, not the strong bear trend channel we saw earlier this morning) 34range chart shows us an inside day, above the PLOD after price sat on the PLOD for an hour this morning trying to find direction. We also have a strong bear price channel BMT is above us, a price magnet. Lets plan our attack on crude oil If price rises: Im selling at resistance first, then buying pullbacks with new higher highs I will not buy at the highs Selling the channel highs at 94.76 Buying pullbacks above 94.76 (bull channel now in play) Avoid the big round number of 95.00 Selling 95.22, 95.42, 95.52

950am est We now have a strong bullish price channel on crude oil, and its trying to prove its worth by breaking the highs of the longer term bear price channel. We need to get price above the swing high (resistance) at 94.76 to make sure this bear channel is officially broken. Above 94.76 we have price moving in the new bullish price channel. 1010am est We saw new HOD on crude oil and we bought pullbacks all the way up to the highs Now those new highs, and the 95.00 even are failing and we sell the highs of this bull price channel. US Dollar Index trading flat now, so we treat the markets were trading like sideways ranges, selling the highs, buying the lows, avoiding the fake-out breakouts.

Schooloftrade.com Market Commentary 7.12.11

1040am est We see speed and momentum concerns on the crude oil We took our last two trades as scratches on crude oil, and after seeing price bounce me out of my last trades only to fill the target where it should have been. We call this lack of follow through which means we get the trade to trigger, but the price action simply doesnt know where to go, so it sits there. 1120am est The markets we trade most are slowing down ahead of the 2pm EST FOMC news this afternoon. This is also a summer trading day, so expect the lunchtime session to be less volume, which means you need to beware the transition into lunch. We are sitting on hands, waiting for market personality to show its face after 1130am European close. Lets plan our attack for the rest of the morning on crude oil: If price rises: Selling resistance first, then buying pullbacks Selling the PHOD 95.94, Avoiding the big round number 96.00 for en entry Selling resistance at 96.09, 96.40, and 96.75 As price breaks thru resistance it becomes support and I begin to look for a pullback to buy with new highs. Once we get above the .94 PHOD we then start looking for pullbacks b/c it becomes an outside trading day.

If price falls: Im buying at support first, then selling new lower lows with retracements. Im buying support at 95.42, .22, .18, avoid the big round number 95.00 Buying 94.76, 94.46, 94.30

Another profitable day of trading, lets prep for tomorrow!

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