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BI 1. GII THIU CHUNG

Ni dung Tip cn h thng Khi nim v h h tr quyt nh (HHTQ) Cc dng h thng tin lin quan Qu trnh ra quyt nh Vi cch phn loi HHTQ V chiu hng cng ngh Lc s HHTQ

I. TIP CN H THNG
Gii thiu v h thng 2 cch nhn v h thng Cch nhn ngoi: m hnh ngoi, m hnh vo/ra; hp en; quan im tng tc; h thng l mt c cu c mt u vo, mt u ra c phn hi t u ra n u vo Cch nhn trong: m hnh trong, m hnh trng thi; hp trng; quan im cu trc; h thng l tp cc thc th v cc mi lin h gia chng Tip cn h thng Cch xem xt vn trn c s cc c im h thng ca i tng Th gii thc c 3 lp vn Cu trc cht nh lng, hnh thc ha vn tr hc: cch gii tiu biu Phi cu trc nh tnh, kh hnh thc ha kinh nghim + trc gic Cu trc yu nh lng + nh tnh, khng hnh thc ha hon ton tip cn h thng Cng c: vn tr hc; l thuyt iu khin; k thut my tnh in t 3 khu: m hnh ha m t cc thuc tnh ca i tng phn tch tm hiu ng thi v hnh vi ca i tng ti u ha theo mt s tiu thc tm ra h thng tt nht 6 c im ca tip cn h thng 1. h thng l tp cc thc th vi cc mi tng tc ln nhau v vi mi trng (tn ti ranh gii h thng) 2. cc i tng khc nhau cng c th c nhng c trng h thng ging nhau (nn cc quy lut tng qut c th p dng ln cc h thng c th trong kinh t, x hi, sinh vt ..) ng thi mi h thng c th c tnh cht v quy lut vn ng ring ca n 3. t trng tm vo vn ng ca h thng: pht sinh, pht trin, tai bin, cn bng.. 4. tha nhn tnh bt nh (khng thng tin) l tt yu tm cch khai thc thng tin tt nht

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5. s cn thit phi quyt nh chn trong nhiu phng n c th - dng cc th tc phn tch da vo ton hc v th tc phi hnh thc tm ra tp cc li gii 6. nhn mnh tnh lin ngnh, s cn thit phi hnh thnh v s dng cc nhm chuyn gia thuc nhiu lnh vc khc nhau 3 dng chy/qu trnh: l thuyt (theory, t ton hc), tru tng (abstraction, m hnh ha, modeling, t khoa hc t nhin/thc nghim) v thit k (design, t cng ngh) l thuyt 4 bc: tin v nh ngha; nh l; chng minh; phn gii kt qu tru tng 4 bc: tp hp d liu v cng thc gi nh; m hnh ha v tin on; thit k thc nghim; phn tch kt qu thit k - 4 bc: yu cu; c t; thit k v hin thc; th nghim v phn tch l thuyt lin quan n kh nng m t v chng minh mi quan h gia cc i tng tru tng lin quan n kh nng dng cc mi quan h ny a ra cc d on c th so snh vi th gii ngoi thit k lin quan n kh nng ci t cc th hin c bit ca nhng mi quan h v dng chng thc hin cc yu cu Chun L nhng ng /thng nht, thng n gin v thun nht 2 phm tr: cng nghip (thc t, de facto, industrial) khng c ch s hu, cng cng, thng m chnh thc (hc thut, de jure, official) c ch s hu, ring t, khng phi tt c u ng T chc xy dng chun Vi t chc in hnh: ISO (The International Standard Organization) ANSI (The America National Standard Institute) IEEE (The Institute of Electrical & Electronic Engineers) CCITT (Comitte Consultatif Internationale de Telegraphique et Telephonique) Vi chun: UNIX: open system, proprietary, de facto standards TCP/IP: The Department of Defenses Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol H thng m C cc c im: (i) chun cng nghip (industrial standard) (ii) kh chuyn (portability) (iii) co gin hiu nng (scalability) (iv) lin tc (interoperability)

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Bn thm [1]. Cach nhn ngoai va trong ve he thong

au vao
He thong

au ra

Moi trng ngoai Hnh : Cach nhn ngoai va trong ve he thong

Phan t

Phan t Quan he

Phan t Phan t Phan he

Phan t

Phan t

[2]. Tiep can he thong co the c coi ong thi la (i) cach suy ngh, (ii) phng phap hay ky thuat phan tch va (iii) phong cach quan ly.

Triet ly he thong Quan ly he thong

Phan tch he thong

Hnh: Tch hp cac khai niem he thong trong tiep can he thong Nguon: Johnson R. A. & others, The Theory and Management of Systems, 1963
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[3]. Mo hnh ngoai cho hai dang he thong ong va m: au vao Xac nh Qua trnh bien oi xac nh au ra Xac nh

Hnh: He thong ong/on nh/c gii (tng oi) Nguon: Wetherbe James C., Systems Analysis & Design, 1994 au vao Xac nh + Bat nh Qua trnh bien oi tuy thuoc cac tng tac cha c xac nh au ra Xac nh + Bat nh

Hnh: He thong m/thch nghi/hu c (tng oi) Nguon: Wetherbe James C., Systems Analysis & Design, 1994 [4]. To chc nh la mot he thong m TO CHC au vao X LY
PHAN HOI

au ra

Bo kch hoat

Bo so sanh

Bo cam bien

Muc tieu Hnh: Cach nhn ien hnh ve he thong - to chc

Phan hoi am to chc can bang, on nh va phat trien theo tinh than tien hoa Phan hoi dng to chc tai bien, chao ao va phat trien theo tinh than cach mang

V vay, viec quan tr he thong thong qua tap muc tieu va phan hoi e xay dng c che cung nh bien phap kiem tra, kiem soat - ong vai tro het sc quan trong oi vi to chc.
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II. KHI NIM V H H TR QUYT NH

0. Cc khi nim cn bn v quyt nh Th d v h h tr quyt nh (HHTQ) Nghin cu v hoch nh tip th: chnh sch gi cho khch hng, d bo sn phm tiu th .. Hoch nh chin lc v vn hnh: theo di, phn tch v bo co v xu hng th trng .. H tr bn hng: chi tit v tng hp tnh hnh bn hng, so snh v phn tch xu hng bn hng .. Quyt nh l g ? l mt la chn v ng li hnh ng (Simon 1960; Costello & Zalkind 1963; Churchman 1968), hay chin lc hnh ng (Fishburn 1964) dn n mt mc tiu mong mun (Churchman 1968) Ra quyt nh l g ? Mt qu trnh la chn c thc gia hai hay nhiu phng n chn ra mt phng n to ra c mt kt qu mong mun trong cc iu kin rng buc bit Quyt nh c th l nhn thc dng s kin, Chi $10,000 cho qung co vo qu 3 Quyt nh c th l nhn thc dng qu trnh, Trc tin thc hin A, sau B hai ln v nu c p ng tt hy thc thi C Quyt nh c th l mt hot ng giu kin thc, Quyt nh c kt lun no th hp l/hp l trong hon cnh no ? Quyt nh c th l nhng thay i trng thi kin thc Quyt nh c chp nhn mt kin thc mi khng ? Ti sao phi h tr ra quyt nh ? Nhu cu h tr ra quyt nh Ra quyt nh lun cn x l kin thc Kin thc l nguyn liu v thnh phm ca ra quyt nh, cn c s hu hoc tch ly bi ngi ra quyt nh Gii hn v nhn thc (tr nh c hn ..) Gii hn v kinh t (chi ph nhn lc ..) Gii hn v thi gian p lc cnh tranh Bn cht ca h tr ra quyt nh cung cp thng tin, tri thc c th th hin qua tng tc ngi my, qua m phng

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Cc yu t nh hng n ra quyt nh Cng ngh - thng tin my tnh Tnh cnh tranh s phc tp v cu trc Th trng quc t - n nh chnh tr - ch ngha tiu th Cc thay i bin ng 1. T chc, vai tr ca nh qun l v vn ra quyt nh Theo cch nhn lin quan n quyt nh, trong t chc c th c 3 vai tr sau (Ngi) ra quyt nh (Ngi) chp hnh quyt nh (Ngi to dng thng tin) h tr quyt nh Nh vy, thng tin h tr quyt nh nm kha cnh trung gian/truyn dn v c th hin cc hot ng lin i: lu tr, x l, truyn a thng tin i php ngh trong t chc v quyt nh: i php v qun l: c th chn vai tr/khu thng tin trong t chc hay khng ? nu c s cn n cc h tr nh my tnh hnh thnh nn cc h thng h tr quyt nh/h tr qun l (DSS/MSS) i php v qun l ? c th chn vai tr/khu ngi ra quyt nh/ngi chp hnh quyt nh/thc hin tc v hay khng ? nu c xu hng s ra sao ? i php v qun l ? c th chn vai tr/khu v kt cu, tng tc trong t chc hay khng ? nu c xu hng s ra sao ? Trong t chc, cng cn phn bit gia lnh o v qun l, khc bit 2 kha cnh sau: xc nh ng cng vic (do the right thing) v thc hin tt cng vic xc nh (do the thing right) tnh hiu dng (effectiveness) v tnh hiu qu (efficiency) Cch nhn chc nng trong t chc (phn ban chc nng trong t chc) Ban lnh o

Hnh chnh Ti chnh

Sn xut Vn hnh

Tip th Phn phi

Nghin cu Pht trin bt nh, phi cu trc kh t ng ha

Vai tr ca nh qun l (Mintzberg, 1980): Giao t (interpersonal) Thng tin (informational) Quyt nh (decisional)
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kinh doanh (entrepreneur) x l pht sinh (disturbance handler) cp pht ti nguyn (resource allocator) thng ngh (negotiator) Nh vy, nh qun l v c bn l ngi ra quyt nh. Ngi ra quyt nh cp qun l thp hay t chc quy m nh: chnh c nhn l ngi ra quyt nh. i vi mt c nhn cng c th c nhiu mc tiu xung t T chc va v ln: thng l nhm ra quyt nh, nh vy thng hay c nhiu mc tiu xung t Nhm c th c kch c khc nhau, c th t nhiu phng/ban hay t cc t chc khc nhau dn n nhiu phong cch nhn thc, c tnh, phong cch quyt nh khc nhau ng thun l vn chnh tr, kh khn nn qu trnh nhm ra quyt nh rt phc tp, thng cn my tnh h tr hnh thnh cng tc trc tuyn mc ton t chc v hn na Cc h tr my tnh thng thy: h thng tin t chc (enterprise information system - EIS), cc dng h h tr nhm (group support system - GSS), cc h qun l ti nguyn t chc (enterprise resource management - ERM), hoch nh ti nguyn t chc (enterprise resource planning - ERP)..

Thng tin v cu trc t chc 3 yu t chnh ca cu trc t chc: cp pht quyn quyt nh h thng khuyn khch (v pht) c ch gim st v o lng Cc bin s thng tin l quan trng: Cht lng quyt nh c xc nh bi cht lng thng tin cung cp cho ngi ra quyt nh Tnh cng ch (ngc vi tnh cng lc !) ca thng tin v quyn quyt nh cho php ngi ra quyt nh ra c quyt nh ti u Ch : Vic ci t tnh cng ch ty thuc bn cht ca thng tin thch hp (kin thc c th, c th ngc vi kin thc chung, tng qut) 2 cch hin thc tnh cng ch: (i) gii php h thng tin qun l (MIS solution): a thng tin cn cho quyt nh n ngi ra quyt nh thng qua h thng tin ca t chc (c th khng t ng ha) (ii) gii php ti thit k t chc (organizational redesign solution): ti kt cu t chc quyn ra quyt nh t ti ch ca thng tin thch ng

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Bi cnh chung ca qun l hin ti 2 tro lu: ton cu ha (nht l v kinh t) & cng ngh thay i nhanh (c bit l cng ngh thng tin truyn thnginformation communications tech - ICT) hin tng Internet: tc ng kinh t - x hi ca tnh ton Thch thc i vi ra quyt nh qun l Ra quyt nh: qu trnh chn la trong tp phng n nhm t mc tiu Ra quyt nh qun l = ton b qu trnh qun l (Simon, 1977) p lc cnh tranh, cc ngun lc kinh t v thi gian tnh -> ra quyt nh tt v/hay nhanh hn Tin : ra quyt nh hp l - phn tch logic bi ton -> p dng khoa hc vo kinh doanh (thng k, xc sut, kinh t hc ..) > my tnh h tr ra quyt nh Phng thc ra quyt nh: ra quyt nh mt/nhiu thnh vin Quyt nh lm bi nhm; c cc thi v suy ngh khc nhau trong nhm Cc mc tiu c th xung t C th c nhiu phng n/gii php Cc kt cc c th xy ra tng lai C tinh thn chp nhn ri ro Qu nhiu thng tin; cn thng tin; thu thp thng tin tn km v tn thi gian i hi phn tch what-if Tip cn th v sai trn h thng thc c th nguy him Thc hnh trn h thng thc c th ch lm c mt ln Thay i mi trng xy ra thng xuyn v nhanh p lc thi gian Khung cnh ca quyt nh Qu trnh quyt nh hp l: (Olson, 1998) Nhn din vn Xy dng m hnh v thu thp d liu To sinh gii php nh gi gii php Quyt nh Hin thc Kim sot Simon (1960): phn loi cu trc bi ton cu trc, na cu trc v phi cu trc Anthony (1965): phn loi mc quyt nh vn hnh, qun l v chin lc

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Khung H Tr Quyt nh (Gorry & Scott Morton, 1971) Kiu kim sot (Anthony) Vn hnh Qun l Kiu quyt nh (Simon) tc nghip chin thut Cu trc Cc khon Phn tch ngn phi thu, nhp sch, d bo ngn hn, nh n hng .. gi nhn s, quyt nh lmhay-mua, .. Na cu trc K hoch sn nh gi tn xut, kim dng, chun b sot tn kho, ngn sch, h thng tng .. thng Phi cu trc Chn ba tp Thng ngh, ch, mua phn vn ng hnh mm, cho vay lang .. .. H thng tin Khoa hc qun qun l, khoa l, h h tr H tr quyt nh, h hc qun l cng ngh chuyn gia, h thng tin lnh o, h qun l nh cung cp Hoch nh chin lc Qun l u t, a im t nh kho, cc h phn phi, .. H tr cng ngh H thng tin qun l, cc m hnh vn tr hc, h x l giao tc

Xy nh mi H h tr quyt mi, st nhp nh, h qun v thu np, k tr kin thc hoch m bo cht lng .. Hoch nh R&D, pht trin cng ngh mi .. H thng tin lnh o, h chuyn gia, mng thn kinh, h qun tr c s tri thc

M hnh ha quyt nh M hnh: tru tng ca thc ti, theo mt cch nhn 2 dng m hnh ha quyt nh trong kinh doanh (theo th t trin khai !) M hnh nhn thc (mental model) v bi cnh kinh doanh nh l l thuyt ca ngi ra quyt nh v kinh doanh tt/xu M hnh khoa hc qun l (management science - MS): m t ton hc v mt s bi cnh kinh doanh tng ca cc m hnh DSS: kt hp cc m hnh dng MS (ph hp t nhiu, vi cc gi thit khc nhau v bi ton nghip v) vi phn gii ca ngi ra quyt nh Mc tiu ca DSS & EIS: cung cp cc cng c tr gip vic pht trin v ci thin cc m hnh nhn thc (v nhn&qu) ca ngi ra quyt nh bng cch cung cp d liu nhanh, ng & p dng cc m hnh ton hc Cc h chuyn gia (ES) thng dng cc m hnh nhn thc phc tp hn

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Bn thm [5]. Cac phan he lien quan en quyet nh To chc

He ieu khien

HE THONG TIN

He tha hanh

Hnh: Cac phan he cau thanh to chc He ieu khien la he lanh ao/quan tr, co trach nhiem ra quyet nh mc to chc. He tha hanh la he b lanh ao/b quan ly, co nhiem vu thc hien cac quyet nh. Va he thong tin ong vai tro truyen dan va la cau noi gia hai he va neu. Do vay, he thong tin co chc nang ho tr va am bao viec ra quyet nh cua to chc. ieu can chu y la, cau truc nay van co the c dung moi chc nang/bo phan cua to chc cac cap thap hn mot cach phu hp.

[6]. Chat lng thong tin

Chat lng thong tin

Chnh xac

Hnh: Cac thuoc tnh cua chat lng thong tin Nguon: John Burch, 1989

ung viec

Kp thi

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[7]. Cac dong chay trong to chc He thong tin ong mot vai tro het sc co y ngha oi vi to chc, o la anh hng en khau ra quyet nh, nh c the hien di ay.

Quan ly

He thong tin

au vao

X ly san pham

au ra

Hnh: Cac luong chay trong to chc

luong vat lieu luong thong tin luong d lieu luong quyet nh Nguon: Stair R. M., 1992

[8]. Cau truc to chc va ra quyet nh ng vi van e ra quyet nh, to chc co the co vai dang ket cau ien hnh sau. Ket cau phan cap Ket cau phang Ket cau mang li

Ap at quan ly

Nhan vien t chu

Hnh: Ra quyet nh theo ket cau to chc Nguon: Wetherbe James C., 1994
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[9]. Cac dang he thong tin va oi sanh A. Theo cong dung ho tr: He ho tr ra quyet nh
Chien lc

Cao

He thong tin quan ly Chien thuat Thap He x ly giao tac

Tac nghiep

Trach nhiem

Anh hng

ac thu

Hnh: Cac dang he thong tin va pho ap dung Nguon: Stair R.M, Principles of Information Systems, 1992 ac iem nghiep vu X ly cac hoat ong hang ngay Tnh t ong hoa cao ng dung rong rai nhat Cung cap thong tin bao cao nh ky, theo yeu cau, ngoai le Nang cao hieu qua cong tac quan ly Pho bien Cung cap c s e phan tch va chon la Nang ve tnh hieu dung cua cong tac ieu hanh Cha c pho bien Cho li khuyen, li giai t kho tri thc xay dng trc va ca t qua trnh t hoc trong khi van hanh Tnh hieu dung va hieu qua cua cong tac ieu hanh va quan ly Con hiem

He x ly giao tac

He thong tin quan ly

He ho tr ra quyet nh

He chuyen gia

Bang : Cac dang he thong tin va oi sanh

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B. Theo chc nang nghiep vu: Hanh chanh & Tai chanh

Ket hp ngang San xuat & Van hanh

Tiep th & Ban hang

Nghien cu & Phat trien

Quan ly cap cao Ket hp ng

Quan ly cap trung

Quan ly cap thap

Hnh: Cac dang he thong tin trong ket hp ng va ngang cua to chc Nguon: Wetherbe James C., 1994 Ket cau ong/on nh/c gii Ket cau trung gian Ket cau m/thch nghi/hu c

Ket hp ng trong to chc co the thay ro hn qua bang sau Mc quan ly Quan ly cap cao Quan ly cap trung Chc nang Xac nh muc tieu chnh, hoach nh chien lc va chnh sach Cap phat tai nguyen nhan lc va tai chanh theo ket hp ngang Xay dng, ieu khien va kiem soat muc tieu bo phan va phng thc ieu hanh Lien ket va phoi hp gia cac bo phan theo ket hp ngang Van hanh viec cung cap san pham va dch vu nh c giao Quan ly tac nghiep rieng le Bang: Ket hp ng trong to chc Nguon: Wetherbe James C., 1994

Quan ly cap thap

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[10]. Cac phan he thong tin trong to chc Hanh chanh & Tai chanh

TO CHC Tiep th & Ban hang Nghien cu & Phat trien

HE THONG TIN NGHIEP VU

San xuat & Van hanh

Phan he hanh chanh & tai chanh

Phan he san xuat & van hanh

Quan ly cap cao

Quan ly cap trung

Phan he tiep th & ban hang Phan he nghien cu & phat trien

Quan ly cap thap

Hnh: Dang he thong tin tch hp cua to chc Nguon: Wetherbe James C., 1994 [11]. Lien he gia thong tin va quyet nh trong to chc HE THONG TIN NGHIEP VU + Khong cau truc Ca biet D bao V mo Dai han Trung dung Kha thi Trung han Pho quat Hien thc Vi mo Ngan han

Tnh cau truc cua quyet nh

ac iem cua thong tin

Quan ly chien lc Quan ly chien thuat

Ban cau truc

Co cau truc

Quan ly tac nghiep

Hnh: Thong tin va quyet nh trong to chc he tch hp Nguon: Louis G. Garceau, 1995
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2. H h tr ra quyt nh l g ? HHTQ l cc h da trn my tnh, c tnh tng tc, gip cc nh ra quyt nh dng d liu v m hnh gii quyt cc bi ton phi cu trc (S. Morton, 1971) HHTQ kt hp tr lc ca con ngi vi nng lc ca my tnh ci tin cht lng ca quyt nh. y l cc h da vo my tnh h tr cho ngi ra quyt nh gii cc bi ton na cu trc (Keen and Scott Morton, 1978) HHTQ l tp cc th tc da trn m hnh nhm x l d liu v phn on ca con ngi gip nh qun l ra quyt nh (Little, 1970) Thay i ty theo ng cnh, cha c nh ngha c chp nhn rng ri i snh gia HHTQ v EDP (electronic data processing) (Alter 1980):
Kha cnh Cch dng Ngi dng Mc tiu Thi gian tnh Hng ch HHTQ Ch ng Qun l Hiu dng Hin ti v tng lai Linh hot EDP B ng Th k Hiu qu Qu kh Nht qun

Cc nim c s ca cc nh ngha v HHTQ: Kiu bi ton, chc nng h thng Gorry & Scott-Morton (1971) Chc nng h thng, c tnh giao tip Little (1970) Mc tiu h thng, khun mu s dng Alter (1980) Nng lc h thng, khun mu s dng Moore and Chang (1980) Thnh phn h thng Bonczek et al. (1989) Qu trnh pht trin Keen (1980) L do dng HHTQ Nhu cu v HHTQ Vo cc nm 1980, 1990 iu tra cc cng ty ln cho thy: Kinh t thiu n nh Kh theo di vn hnh ca doanh nghip Cnh tranh gay gt Xut hin thng mi in t (e-commerce) B phn IT qu bn, khng gii quyt c cc yu cu qun l Cn phn tch li nhun, hiu qu v thng tin chnh xc, mi, kp thi Gim gi ph hot ng + Xu hng tnh ton ca ngi dng (end-user computing) L do s dng HHTQ Ci thin tc tnh ton Tng nng sut ca c nhn lin i

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Ci tin k thut trong vic lu tr, tm kim, trao i d liu trong v ngoi t chc theo hng nhanh v kinh t Nng cao cht lng ca cc quyt nh a ra Tng cng nng lc cnh tranh ca t chc Khc phc kh nng hn ch ca con ngi trong vic x l v lu cha thng tin Thun li ca h DSS (Keen, 1981) Tng s phng n xem xt Hiu nghip v tt hn p ng nhanh trc cc tnh hung khng mong i C th thc hin cc phn tch phi chnh quy Hc tp v hiu bit Ci thin truyn thng Kim sot Tit kim chi ph Quyt nh tt hn Tinh thn ng i tt hn Tit kim thi gian Dng cc ngun d liu tt hn Cc h tr mong i t HHTQ HHTQ cung cp Thng tin trng thi v d liu th Kh nng phn tch tng qut M hnh biu din (cn i ti chnh), m hnh nhn qu (d bo, chn on) ngh gii php, nh gi Chn la gii php Tr li cu hi Ci g .. ? What is .. ? Ci g ..? Ti sao .. ? What is/why .. ? S l g ..? What will be ..? Ti sao .. ? Why .. ? Nu nh ..? What if .. ? Ti sao ..? Why .. ? Ci g tt nht/ tt .. ? What is best/what is good enough .. ? Phn tch nhy nhanh v hiu qu hn p ng nhanh hn Thy c cc quan h nghip v ca ton h thng D hiu chnh m hnh D xem xt cc thay i Nhn din cc ti nguyn cha tn dng Vch ra cc tip cn mi Gii thch tnh hp l Nhiu k hoch kin nh Tiu chun ha cc th tc tnh ton Gim cng vic hnh chnh, tit kim chi ph hnh chnh

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III. CC DNG H THNG TIN LIN QUAN

C cc dng h thng tin sau: TPS transaction processing system: h x l giao tc MIS management information system, GIS geographic information system: h thng tin qun l, h thng tin a l DSS decision support system, MSS management support system, MDS management decision system: h h tr quyt nh, h h tr qun l, h quyt nh qun l GDSS group decision support system, ODSS organizational decision support system: h h tr quyt nh nhm, h h tr quyt nh t chc IDSS intelligent decision support system: h h tr quyt nh thng minh EIS executive information system: h thng tin lnh o ES expert system: h chuyn gia KMS knowledge management system: h qun tr kin thc Enterprise application systems (ERP, SCM, CRM ..): h ng dng (quy m) x nghip (t chc) (h hoch nh ti nguyn x nghip, h qun tr chui cung ng, h qun tr quan h khch hng) ANN artificial neural networks: mng thn kinh nhn to V c bn, cn ch : Phn bit gia h x l giao tc (TPS) vi h h tr quyt nh (DSS) H h tr quyt nh cng l mt dng h thng tin da vo my tnh (CBIS computer based information system) Cc dng h thng tin ngy nay (t CBIS n HSS) u c my tnh h tr Mt s cng ngh/cng c khc nhau (tc mt s h thng tin) tch hp li theo vi kiu sau: Dng mi cng c c lp cho mi kha cnh ca bi ton Dng mt vi cng c kt hp lng, thng l chuyn d liu t cng c ny sang cng c khc Dng cc cng c tch hp cht ch, nh mt h hn hp i vi ngi dng Vn l gii php ca bi ton qun l ch khng phi cng c k thut H h tr hn hp (HSS) c coi l h h tr qun l (MSS) tch hp vi cc cng c ca khoa hc qun l (nh lng/vn tr hc) (management science/operation research MS/OR) v thng k (statistics) cng nh mt s cng c my tnh ha khc. Cc cng c c th c cung cp bi nhiu ngi khc nhau Vn lin kt trn mng my tnh ca cc h thng dn tr thnh ph qut

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Thuc tnh ca cc h thng tin c my tnh h tr Hng mc TPS MIS

Kim sot sn xut, theo di v d bo bn hng Thng tin

DSS

ES

EIS

NC
Quyt nh phc tp, lp; chn on

KBM

p dng K ton, tn kho, thng tin bn hng, sn xut Giao tc d Kha cnh tp liu trung

C s d n nht i vi mi liu ng dng, cp nht theo l

Lp trnh vin truy t tng tc

X l

Dng s

Dng s

Lp k K hoch H tr cc hoch chin chin lc, qun l cao lc .. chn on, cp, nghin cu mi trng Quyt nh, Suy din, Theo di, chuyn kim sot, tnh linh hot, thn giao kin dn xut thc thin s dng H qun tr Kin thc Truy xut n mi CSDL, truy theo s t tng kin v th CSDL mc tc; c s ton t tc, kin thc theo kin thc chc (s kin, s kin quy tc) Dng s Dng k Ch yu l hiu dng s, c dng k hiu

Quyt nh phc tp trong mi trng thay i Cng nhn Tnh kh mu dng li ca cc thc t u vit Cc trng Kho kin hp lch s; thc t cung cp chc hun luyn

Dng s cn x l trc

Dng s, nh tnh, k hiu Phc tp, bao gm c mc t chc

Nng lc Khng c Bi ton quyt nh th tc c quyt cu trc nh dng cc cng c vn tr hc

Cc quyt Bi ton nh phc na cu tp, khng trc, m hnh vn tr c cu trc, dng cc tch hp, quy tc kt hp (heuristics) gia m hnh v ng x con ngi Bo co Bo co Thng tin Khuyn Loi h tr cc ngh v gii thng tin tng hp, nh k, quyt nh thch sn sinh c tnh vn theo nhu hnh cu, ngoi c th l Qun l Cc nh Cc nh Mc t Qun l chc cao mc thp mc trung phn tch qun l v v qun l chuyn gia nht Lc y Tnh thc t thch hp Hiu qu

Ch khi kt Ch yu l hp vi d bo, da DSS trn cc trng hp lch s

Bo co D bo, tnh hnh, phn loi ngoi l, mu cc ch s chnh Qun l cp Cc chuyn cao gia, nh qun l

Khuyn ngh, kin thc, b quyt Cc nh qun l v chuyn gia

Hiu dng Hiu dng Tnh ng Tnh thc Hiu dng v thc t lc t thch hp v thc t thch hp thch hp

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IV. QU TRNH RA QUYT NH

Qu trnh ra quyt nh gm c 3 giai on (Simon 1977) Tm hiu (intelligence): bi ton dn n quyt nh Thit k (design): phn tch v xy dng cc din trnh hnh ng Chn la (choice): chn mt din trnh trong tp din trnh + tip theo giai on chn la l giai on hin thc (implementation) Ch : cng c my tnh c th h tr tt c cc giai on trn ! Giai on tm hiu Xc nh mc tiu t chc Tm kim v tp hp d liu Nhn din, xc nh ch th bi ton, phn loi v pht biu vn

n gin ha cc gi nh

Pht biu vn Giai on thit k Thit lp m hnh Lp bng tiu chun chn la Tm kim cc phng n Tin on v o lng cc kt cc Phng n Giai on chn la Gii php cho m hnh Phn tch nhy Chn (cc) phng n tt nht Hoch nh vic hin thc Gii php Hin thc gii php Tht bi Thnh cng Kim chng, kim th gii php xut Hp thc m hnh Thc ti

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Ra quyet nh va giai quyet van e Nhng lam the nao e cai thien viec giai quyet van e ? Hnh sau cho thay mot giai oan quan trong trong viec giai quyet van e o la ra quyet nh. Phan tch Ra quyet nh Thiet ke Chon la Thi cong Kiem soat Giai quyet van e Hnh: Tam quan trong cua viec ra quyet nh. Nguon: H. A. Simon, 1960

Giai on Tm hiu Ch cc ni dung sau Nhn din vn (c hi): cc mc tiu t chc c lin quan Phn loi vn : c th theo tnh c cu trc ca bi ton (Simon, 1977: ph lin tc vi 2 cc l bi ton lp trnh c v khng) Phn r vn : chia ra cc bi ton con (nh trong AHP Satty, 1999) Xc nh ch th vn : trch nhim gii quyt v nng lc gii quyt Pht biu vn chnh thc

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Giai on Thit K Ch cc ni dung sau Bn cht: ngh thut + khoa hc M hnh nh lng (ton, ti chnh ..) Cc thnh phn ca m hnh Cu trc ca m hnh Tiu chun dng nh gi Xy dng cc gii php Tin on cc kt cc o lng cc kt cc Phn tch tnh hung M hnh nhn thc gip xc nh tnh hung ra quyt nh tt hn, thng c xy dng trong tnh hung quyt nh b p lc thi gian Bn thm v G thit k c tnh chung ca cc HHTQ l m hnh ha. Thnh phn lun c mt trong h thng l m hnh (model) t vic thc hin phn tch quyt nh s trn m hnh thay v trn thc ti. M hnh l biu din/tru tng ca thc ti (thng n gin ha) theo mt cch nhn nht nh. C cc dng m hnh khc nhau: t l (scale/iconic), tng ng (analog), ton/nh lng (mathematical/quantitative) Ch s nh i gia chnh xc ca m hnh v gi ph xy dng tng ng Bin ngoi

Bin quyt nh

M hnh = tp cc quan h

Bin kt qu

Rng buc

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1. Cc thnh phn ca m hnh Gm c: bin quyt nh (1), bin kt qu (2) v bin khng kim sot c v/hay thng s (3) Th d: Lnh vc Bin quyt nh Bin kt qu Bin khng kim sot/thng s T l lm pht Cnh tranh

u t ti Phng n v tng mc chnh u t Khi no v bao lu Tip th Ngn sch tip th a im qung co Sn xut Sn phm v sn lng Mc tn kho

Li nhun, ri ro Sut thu li Li theo c phiu Thu nhp ca khch Th phn Tha mn ca khch hng Hnh ng ca i th hng Tnh nng ca my mc Tng chi ph Cng ngh Mc cht lng Tha mn ca nhn Gi vt liu vin

2. Cu trc m hnh nh lng Biu thc ton hc: thng dng nht l Quy hoch tuyn tnh v quy hoch nguyn Quy hoch phi tuyn Quy hoch ng Quy hoch mc tiu Phn cng (tm so khp tt nht) u t (ti a ha sut thu li) M hnh mng (hoch nh, lp thi biu) M hnh tn kho n gin (EOQ) Vn ti (ti thiu ha ph vn chuyn) Cp pht (cn i ngn sch) 3. Tiu chun nh gi Nguyn l chn la: tiu chun m t tnh kh chp nhn ca tip cn ca gii php (trong giai on thit k ch khng phi chn la) Cc m hnh c tnh danh nh (normative): chn phng n tt nht trong ton b Ti u (optimization): kt qu cao nht theo tp ngun lc sn c, t s kt qu/chi ph cao nht (nng sut cao nht) chi ph t nht vi tp kt qu cho Ti u b phn (sub-optimization): ti u ha theo b phn + tch hp cc b phn khc: tip cn thc t C s: ch thuyt ra quyt nh hp l theo cc gi nh: Con ngi l ch th kinh t nhm ti a ha cc mc tiu mong mun

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tnh hung ra quyt nh, cc din trnh thc hin v kt cc hoc t nht l cc xc sut ng vi cc kt cc c bit Ngi ra quyt nh c sn u tin/thin hng cho php sp hng cc kt cc Cc m hnh c tnh m t (descriptive): chn phng n ph hp mc tiu trong tp cho chp nhn c/tha mn (xem thm tnh hp l trong rng buc (bounded rationality) ca Simon) Thng da vo ton hc: M phng (simulation): ph bin nht; computer,virtual reality, video games Dng thng tin (information flow) Phn tch tnh hung (scenario analysis) Hoch nh ti chnh (financial planning) Quyt nh tn kho phc tp (complex inventory decisions) Phn tch Markov (Markov analysis (d bo)) Phn tch tc ng mi trng (environmental impact analysis) D bo cng ngh (technological forecasting) Qun l hng i (waiting line (queuing) management) Khng da vo ton hc: S nhn thc (cognitive map): ch ra cc yu t nh tnh v cc quan h nhn qu ca tnh hung ra quyt nh Din kch (narratives): gip hiu r tnh hung ra quyt nh qua vic nhn din cc kha cnh quan trng, thch hp cho ra quyt nh nhm 4. Xy dng gii php/phng n C hai tip cn: T ng bi m hnh (nh quy hoch tuyn tnh) H h tr qun l (MSS): a s l th cng, u c lin quan n d tm, sng to, heuristics 5. Tin on kt cc ca phng n Da vo kin thc/nim tin v cc kt qu d on: Chc chn (certainty) Ri ro (risk): bi ton phn tch ri ro Bt nh (uncertainty) 6. o lng kt cc ca phng n 7. Phn tch tnh hung (scenario analysis) Bn v mi trng vn hnh ca h thng, cc thng s cho quyt nh v cc bin khng kim sot c, cc th tc v rng buc trn m hnh Cc bi cnh cn ch : tt nht c th, xu nht c th, trung bnh v hu nh chc chn c bit hu ch trong m phng v phn tch what-if

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Giai on Chn la Ch cc ni dung sau Hot ng tm kim (search) M hnh danh nh: tip cn phn tch/ti u: cng thc ton hc; gii thut thng p dng cho cc bi ton c cu trc, c bn cht vn hnh hay chin thut K thut phn tch SMART (Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique, Edwards, 1971) K thut phn tch AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process, Saaty, 1980) M hnh m t: tm kim m (blind)/tm kim heuristics - thng p dng cho cc bi ton phc tp, t c tnh cu trc Hot ng nh gi (evaluation) a mc tiu Phn tch nhy Phn tch what-if D tm mc tiu (goal seeking) ngh gii php cho m hnh Bn thm v G chn la: tc v nh gi a mc tiu: y l tnh hung thng xy ra cho cc phng n phng php gii thng dng: l thuyt v li (utility theory) quy hoch mc tiu (goal programming) quy hoch tuyn tnh (linear programming) xem mc tiu l rng buc h thng chm im Phn tch what if xc nh iu g s xy ra i vi gii php nu mt bin no thay i ? ph bin trong cc h chuyn gia (expert system - ES) D tm mc tiu (goal seeking) tnh ton gi tr nhp lng cn thit t c mc mc tiu mong mun dng gii php hng v pha sau (backward solution approach)

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Cng ngh h tr quyt nh theo giai on ((Sprague, R.H, 1980, A Framework for the development of DSS)

Tm hiu

ANN MIS Data mining, OLAP EIS

Thit k GDSS Management Science ANN DSS ES

Chn la

Hin thc GDSS

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Cc m hnh quyt nh khc Paterson decision-making process Kotters process model Pounds flow chart of managerial behavior Kepner-Tregoe rational decision-making approach Hammond, Kenney, and Raiffa smart choice method Cougars creative problem solving concept and model Pokras problem-solving methodology Bazermans anatomy of a decision Harrisons interdisciplinary approaches Beachs naturalistic decision theories Cc tip cn quyt nh theo phong cch nhn thc (G.B. Davis, 1974) Yu t gii quyt vn Tip cn hc tp Tm kim Tip cn phn tch Phm vi phn tch C s suy din Heuristic Hnh ng quan trng hn phn tch tnh hung Nhn mnh vo phn hi Th-v-sai; hnh ng tc thi Trc gic v cm quan Phn tch Phn tch tnh hung quan trng hn hnh ng t nhn mnh vo phn hi Phn tch hp l mt cch hnh thc M hnh tng minh, thng l nh lng v tnh hung Quy tnh hung v tp c s cc chc nng nhn qu

Tnh hung l tng th hu c ch khng l cu trc kt thnh t cc phn ring bit Tm kim cc khc bit theo tnh Xc nh cc tng ng hay im chung bng cch so snh hung r rt v thay i theo cc i tng thi gian

Quan h ngnh Khoa hc ng x Trit hc, tm l hc, x hi hc, tm l x hi hc, lut, nhn chng hc, khoa hc chnh tr .. Khoa hc khc Kinh t hc, thng k, ton hc, vn tr hc, khoa hc my tnh .. Cc ngnh u tc ng n kh nng quyt nh ca cc c nhn v s h tr tng ng Cc vn lin i trong xy dng h thng C tnh (personality) Quan h cht ch gia c tnh v ra quyt nh Kiu c tnh gip gii thch cch thc tip cn vn Kiu c tnh ch ra cch thc to quan h vi cc kiu c tnh khc cn thit xy dng nhm nh hng n phong cch nhn thc v phong cch quyt nh
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Phi (gender) Mt s kim nghim thc t cho thy khng c khc bit ng k trong ra quyt nh lin quan n phi Nhn thc (human cognition) Nhn thc: hot ng ca c nhn gii quyt s khc bit gia quan im/hiu bit ni ti v mi trng vi nhng g thc s tn ti trong mi trng Kh nng lnh hi v hiu thng tin Cc m hnh nhn thc l cc c gng nhm gii thch hay hiu cc qu trnh nhn thc khc nhau Phong cch nhn thc nh hng ln tng tc ngi my Phong cch quyt nh (decision styles) Heuristic Phn tch (analytic) c ti (autocratic ) Dn ch (democratic) Thin v t vn vi c nhn/nhm (consultative) Cc kt hp v bin th khc Cn c xem xt khi tin hnh thit k h h tr qun l (MSS)

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V. VI CCH PHN LOI H H TR QUYT NH

Theo cc tiu thc khc nhau, c th c vi phn loi h h tr quyt nh nh sau: communications/data/document/model/knowledge-driven DSS h h tr quyt nh hng v truyn thng/d liu/t liu/m hnh/kin thc text/geographic/database/spreadsheet/solver/ rule - oriented and compound DSS (Holsapple & Whinston) h h tr quyt nh hng v vn bn/a l/c s d liu/bng tnh/b gii quyt bi ton/quy tc v h h tr quyt nh hn hp intelligent DSS: h h tr quyt nh thng minh descriptive/procedural/reasoning/linguistic/ presentation/assimilative (prime) sybiotic, expert-systems-based, adaptive and holistic organizational/group/personal support system: h h tr c nhn/nhm/t chc individual DSS/group support system (Keen, 1980): h h tr quyt nh c nhn/h h tr nhm WEBbased DSS: h h tr quyt nh trn nn WEB institutional DSS ngc vi ad hoc DSS (Donovan and Madnick, 1977) - h h tr quyt nh thng thng ngc vi h h tr quyt nh c th: cc bi ton ging nhau, thng xuyn ngc vi cc bi ton d bit, c th, kh on trc Khc: pht trin/xy dng h h tr quyt nh (DSS development) ngc vi khai thc thu h h tr quyt nh (DSS hosting) h h tr quyt nh theo nhu cu (custom-made DSS) ngc vi h h tr quyt nh lm sn (ready-made DSS)

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VI. V CHIU HNG CNG NGH

c im k thut ca HHTQ: C ch d liu m hnh tng tc (DDM - data-dialog-model), nng lc trch xut bin i thu np (ETL - extraction-transformation-loading) a phng tin (multimedia), d liu khng gian (spatial data), hng t liu (document-centric), k thut nh kho d liu (data warehousing), k thut x l phn tch trc tuyn (online analytic processing - OLAP) Kin trc h thng theo kiu khch hng ngi phc v trn nn WEB (web client-server) Tnh ton cho ngi dng cui (end-user computing)

Cc nh hng hin ti v cng ngh Cng ngh WEB (Internet/intranet/extranet ..), WEB services Cng ngh khng dy (wireless/mobile computing ..) H qun tr kin thc (knowledge management system) Phn mm mc x nghip/t chc (ERP, CRM, SCM ..) Lu vn pht trin h thng & s dng h thng Cc nh cung cp dch v ng dng (ASP - application service provider)

VII. LC S H H TR QUYT NH
c thm (A brief history of decision support systems)

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