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AM#1 02:07 02-18-2010
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Senior Member

Nov 2009

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.(3
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GDP
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(PP (Phillips and Perron-1988

) (4
.E-views 3.1

 :
) **GDPG) = -0.029- 0.194**(GDPGt- 1)+ 1.028*** (GDPCG)+ 0.412
((CONG) - 0.171* (UN
][0.072] [0.018] [0.0.000] [0.017] [0.741
[U = 0.038 R2 = 0.91 F =40.554*** [0.000
*** % 1
** % 5
* % 01
[] P
:
) H0) P value F
Bresch -Godfrey Serial 1.453 0.267
Corrlation LM Test
ARCH (1) Test 0.282 0.602
Ramsey RESET Test 0.022 0.883
Jarque - Bera 1.852 0.396
: .
:
-1 .
-2
.
-3
.
-4 F
.%1
-5 R2
.%91
-6 Langrange Multiplier
[(Test of Residual [Breusch Godfery(BG .
-7 Autoregressive
(Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH
Homoscedasticity
-8 (Ramsey Test (DESET

9 (Jarque Bera (JB

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10 ) (3 CUSUM )
(4 CUSUMSQ

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.
:
)(
2001
)( " "
1994
)( )( )( "
" 1996
" 1980 " 2004
:English
Andersen, B., Corley, M " The Theoretical, conceptual, and empirical impact
of services economy: A critical review UNU WIDER Discussion paper No 22
-2003
Applebaum, E., Bailey ,T., Bereg, Kallenberg, A (eds) "Manufacturing
advantage :Why high-performance work systems pay off (Ithaca,Cornell
University Press) 2000
Arora, A., Arunichalam V.v.s., Asunoi ,Jai , fersndes ,Ronald "The Indian
software services industry " in research policy No 30 2001
Aurer ,P "Employment revivel in Europe : Labor market success in Austria
,Denmark,Ireland and Netherland (Geniva ILO) 2000
?Aurer ,P ,Bereg,J Coulibaly " Is a more stable work force good for economy
)Insights into the tenure productivity employment relationship (Geniva ILO
Employment strategy working paper No 15 2004
Ghose,AS.K. "Jops and incomes in a globalizing world" (Geniva ILO) 2003
Kucera,D.,Milberg,w"Deindustralization and changes in the manufacturing
trade:factor content calcukation for 1978-1995 " Review of world economics
No 2 2003
Landmann,M., Stehere, R " The European unemployment problems : A
structure lapproach" in P.Petit and L.Soete.(eds) Tchnology ana future of
European unemployment (Cheltenham,Edward Elagar) 2001
Landmann,O"Employment productivity and output growth " background
paper for the world employment report 2004-2005
Lawrebce M,Kahan "The impact of employment protection Mandates on

demographic temporarary employment patterns: International

Microeconomic EvidenceIza No: 1548, March 2005
Little ,I ,Mazumdar ,D Page ,J "Small manufacturing enterprises : Analysis of
India and others economics" (New York ,Oxford University press ) 1987
Patrick A.Puhani "Transatlationtic Difference in labor markets " change in
wages and non-employment structure,William Davidson Institite Working
paper No: 762, March 2005
Tomas Cool,"Unemployment solved : An answer to Krugman, Phelps,Ormerdo
and heilbroner , April 1997
Gulen ,S ,G "Is OPEC a Cartel? Evidence from cointegration and Caslity
tests" .Retreved from http:// fmwww.bc.edu/Ec-P/EP318
Johanson ,S" Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors" Jornal of Economic
Dynamics and controal ,1988
World Employment Report "Employment , productivity and poverty reduction"
2004-2005
(1)
( )
03/2004 191/1992
% %
21.1 9.00 1.40 14.4 15.8 53.5 91/1992
11.2 10.90 1.80 14.7 16.5 54.6 92/1993
9.00 11.10 1.90 14.9 16.8 55.8 93/1994
9.30 11.30 1.90 15.1 17 56.9 94/1995
7.30 9.60 1.60 15.3 16.9 58.1 95/1996
6.20 8.80 1.40 15.8 17.3 59.4 96/1997
4.90 8.50 1.53 16.2 17.6 60.7 97/1998
3.70 8.20 1.52 16.8 18.2 62.0 98/1999
2.80 7.90 1.50 17.6 18.9 63.3 99/2000
2.40 7.60 1.49 17.6 19.3 64.6 00/2001
6.60 9.00 1.89 17.9 19.7 66.0 01/2002
13.00 9.90 2.00 18.2 20.2 67.3 02/2003
17.00 9.85 2.00 18.7 20.7 68.6 03/2004
:
( 2 )


1993 19921993
1994 1994
1995 1995
1996 1996
20022003 20012002 20002001 19992000 19981999 19971998 1997

20032004
) ( 139.6 134.3
146.1
153.4
240.5
257.0
271.0
287.0
354.6 269.8
400.1 381.0
4.3 3 3.1 3.3 5.1 6.1 7.1 5.3 5.0 4.7 3.9 2.5 %

) 276 257.2 163.5 155.5 148.8 143.1
427.0 390.7 407.0 320.2 309.3 293.5
4.1 3.1 3 3.5 5.1 6 7.4 5.9 5.1 4.6 3.9 2.9 %
16.6 16.8 16.6 16.5 16.5 16 16 15.7 16 16.3 16.5 16.5 %
3.3 4.9 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.4 7.5 7.7 4.2 2.9 %

)(3


GDPG GDP
GDPCG GDP/Percapita
CONG Consumption
UN Unemployment
:
)(4
PP
PP
1% 5% 10%
GDPG 3.971419- 3.7667- 3.0038 2.6417GDPCG 3.172773- 3.7667- 3.0038 2.6417CONG 3.054450- 3.7667- 3.0038 2.6417UN 2.415368- 3.7667- 3.0038 2.6417
GDPG 7.564667- 3.7856- 3.0114- 2.6457GDPCG 5.344411- 3.7856- 3.0114- 2.6457CONG 6.750551- 3.7856- 3.0114- 2.6457UN 8.51487- 3.7856- 3.0114- 2.6457-

 )(5
)(13
E-views
(Dependent Variable: D(GDPG
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/27/05 Time: 05:14
Sample(adjusted): 1984 2004
Included observations: 21 after adjusting endpoints
.Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob
D(GDPG(-1)) -0.194052 0.072690 -2.669586 0.0168
D(GDPCG) 1.027642 0.127090 8.085951 0.0000
D(CONG) 0.412345 0.155740 2.647641 0.0176
D(UN) -0.171022 0.088627 -1.929684 0.0716
C -0.029244 0.086849 -0.336722 0.7407
R-squared 0.910222 Mean dependent var -0.057143
Adjusted R-squared 0.887778 S.D. dependent var 1.151938
S.E. of regression 0.385895 Akaike info criterion 1.137751
Sum squared resid 2.382633 Schwarz criterion 1.386447
Log likelihood -6.946389 F-statistic 40.55445
Durbin-Watson stat 2.262380 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
)(1
US Department of Labor , Bureau of Labor Statistics:
)(2
US Department of Labor , Bureau of Labor Statistics:
) :(3
.1 CUSUM

) :(4
.2 of Squares CUSUM
)(1


)










__________________
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AM#2 05:40 02-18-2010

dusty rose

Junior Member

Jan 2009

48

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