"!$#&%'(*)
+ ,.0/214357698$.:5<;>='576?14@A5.CBDBE,F1G@A=H62,JI$5K8MLH58B9BE6258B2@A5.CBN=H62,>O<5/2/P,.QBE6SR0O2TVU458WX/E=06S14.Y/7Z
[ L5DL58BXBE6258B2@A5.CBX\]LH14OSL^W_,$6?@*/`B2L5PO78$@ba'57614.cU(58Wd/E=H6S1G.Y/`O<,.H/21G/EB2/e,$W]L58B214.Yf14.^8gLH1(YL
BE5@A=h576S8B2R6S5iWjR6?.H8$O<5$k=H6S,lO<5/2/S14.YmaCn8mWj,$6S@*14.HYm@o8$OSLH14.H5"8$.H3`plR5.HOSL014.Yq14.8$.,14Ua08B2LZ [ L5sr0I$5
W
8$O<BE,$6S/`U414/2BE53f1G.gB2LH5AB28a0U(5ah5U(,\t\-57625*OSLH,/E5.u8$O<62,/2/`Iv86S14,RH/w/EB28Y$5/`,$W B2L5A=H62,>O<5/2/7xyWjRH6S.H8$O<5
BE5@A=h576S8B2R6S5{z
|}?kqL58B214.Y~B214@A5Mz
d}?kqBE6S8$.H/EWj576PB214@A5~z+&}gzB214@*5f1(BDB28T$5/PB2L5O<,.CI$57n$576NBE,
BE6S8$.H/2=',$6SByB2LH6`/E=H6S14.HY/]Wj62,@B2L5AW
R6S.08$O<5XBE,B2L5AW_,$6?@*14.YP@*8$OSL014.5J}?kL,UG3>3,\].gB21G@A5z
`}w8$.H3
plR5.HOSLN,14UhBE5@A=h576S8B2R625Dz`}?Z [ L5625/2=',.0/E5Iv86?148a0U(514/mB2L5bL51(YLCBq,$WB2LH5`RH.HU(,8$3539/2=H6S14.YZ
|

8$O<BE,$6
+

C Z
lZ4
CZ
CZ$
CZv
CZ$
CZ$
CZ$
CZ
CZ$
CZ
CZ$
CZ$
CZ$
CZ4
CZ>

&51(YLCB
CZ
lZ4
CZ$
CZ$
lZ$
lZ
CZ$
CZ>
CZ$
CZ$
CZ$
CZ
CZ$
CZ$
CZ4
CZ

CZ>
CZ$
CZ
CZ
CZ$
lZ
CZ$
CZ$
CZ4
CZ$
CZ
CZ$
CZ$
CZ$
CZ$
CZ$

$
CZ$
lZv$
CZ$$
CZ$$$
CZv$
CZv
CZv$
CZ$$
CZ$$
CZ$$
CZ$$
CZv
CZ$$
CZ$$$
CZ$
CZ$$$


>Z$$
>Z
>Z$
>Z7
>Z$$
>Z$
>Z$v
>Z$
>Z
>Zv
>Z$
>Z$$
>Z$
>Z$
>Z$
>Z$v

j z  }
lZ4$$
lZ$
lZ$v
Z$$
lZ$$$
lZ$>
Z$$
Z4$$
lZ$$$
lZJ
lZ$v
Z$v
lZ$$>
lZv
lZHl
lZl

[ LH5*35/21(Y.14/L08$U(W"Wj6S8$O<B21(,.,$Wm89W
RHU4UsWj8$O<BE,$6S1G8$U"35/21(Y.Z],$B214O<5*B2L08BB2L5*O<,U4RH@*.O<,$6S625<
/E=h,.H3H1G.YBE,oB2L5`W
8$O<BE,$6w1G/qB2L5e=062,l30RHO<Bq,$WsB2L5eO<,U4RH@o.H/dO<,$62625/2=',.03H14.YBE,bkDk08$.03fZql,
B2L5`O<,.CBE6S8$/EB2/]8$.H39y*t8625`8$UG148$/E53uz
35.,$BE53y*k,$6&y*:l}?Z [ L5wW_6S8$O<B214,.H8$U
35/214Y.^14/e,$Wq625/E,U4RB214,.ulah5O78$RH/25*B2L5P35<r.H14.HY9625U48B21(,.c]*KO<,.H/S14/EB2/`,$WqB2LH5o\-,$6S3
yA`\]LH14OSL91G/q,$WU45.Y$B2L9Wj,R6Z

P0_j
QChl$7'J$
H0JH l0ClHi>HC$$ SCCHH?iEi2iEiSH
lHvl>>vi2lChEl>CvhlC'2$S>$
>$0l$0$h'E$$>'m-h
>H->H

MQQ
MQ
FtFQ
QFQ
FQM
MM
tM
QM
Qt
vtMt
lQFtFt
:QFt
FQQ
MQ
tQ
QQ
>ll>l->$0CsH C
{]0$>HC>  C
>H-l>ll> J's]0>$>lH>Hl
>H-lHll"&HH$$'?i>H '
>H-lH$l
7>0h

m
ll C C C  lv C  ' >l < l  ' C v

m

m
E--
Em

q

 l ClC  l C  l  C l v C > llC

- Q--
-EFmm
m
q E-q-qE-Em 

> l
  lClV l




CH$-H l 2C$H>$

0.5

0.4

D
Effects
0.3

D:Q

0.2

0.0

0.1

A:Q

C:Q

0.0

0.5

1.0
1.5
Half-normal Quantiles

2.0

|y.,$B2L576d=h,/2/S1(a014U414Bn*14/qBE,RH/E5`8*35/S1(Y.P,$WB2LH5`Bnl=h5e]*`PQHZ
>H->Hl>il0$l>HvHSsSSi2H
lHvl>>vi2lChEl>CvhlC'2$S>$
>$0l$0$h'E$$>hvl
>H-l>ll> J's]0>$>lH>Hl
>H-lHll"&HH$$'?i>H '
>H-lH$l
7>0h

m
-
ll C C l C<Cv  l v  ll <v C C> C >>

E




q
E
m
 l l  C l  C Cll  l l C' l  v
E

 > ClC
l$0$m7>J-lS$0l

0.5

0.4

D
Effects
0.3

D:Q

0.2

B:Q

0.1

A:Q

0.0

0.5

C:Q

1.0
Half-normal Quantiles

1.5

2.0



 

   "!$#&%'(A
+-,.0/EBE6SRHO<By8gJDW_6?8$O<B21(,.,$W"8P`W
8$O<BE,$6S148$URH/21G.Y*B2L5bY$5.576S8BE,$6S/`Xd]*

Z


8$.03f

 [ L5`O<,.BE6?8$/EB]/2RHaHY$62,R=N14/2]*`?`
2]

 14.03H14.YXB2L5`o/257B2/q,$W"BE6258B2@A5.CB2/]O78$.Na'5`3H,.5aCnD5.lRH@A576S8B214.HY*8$U4UB2L5BE6258B2@*5.B2/7Z(Z(Z
[ 6258B2@A5.CB
z}
8
a
O
3
5
8a
O73
8$35

$8 O735
8aO735

+m

5
5
5
,
,
,
5
5
5

y
5
,
,
5
5
,
5
5
5

(Z Z(Z,$6alnfr.H3H14.HYN14.H3H57='5.035.BwY$5.576?8BE,$6S/X,$WqB2L58=H=062,$=H6S148BE5*/SRaHY$62,R=c8$.H3uY$5.576?8BE5
B2LH59625@*8$14.H1G.YKf5U45@A5.B2/*aCn~6257=h58BE53F@XRHU(B21(=0UG14O78B21(,.Z ,$6o5<;8$@A=0U(5$k \ 5NO78$.FO?L,l,/E5
   8$.03AY$5.576S8BE
5 Cz}        Z [ L5d,$B2L576q/E57B2/-O78$.oah5
,$B28$1G.Wj62,@ B2L014/d,.5X8$/]O<,/257B2/7khB2LH8B]14/k8625b,$aHB28$14.53aCnN@XRHU(B21(=U414O78B21(,.P\&14B2LN8o3H"1 !'57625.CB
BE6S58B2@A5.B7Z

# Wq\-5O<,.H/21G3576eB2L5O<,/E57BA357BE576S@*14.H53aCnu@XRHU(B214=0U414O78B21(,.f\&14B2L$vksB2L5.^8g8$.,$B2L576/E57Bb,$W
BE6S58B2@A5.B2/y14/q,$a0B28$14.53x%&&   Z
 [ L5&/E57B ,$Wh8$UG148$/E5/1G/",$aHB28$14.H53AaCnA@XRHU(B21(=U(nl1G.Y]B2LH5&=0862B21GO7RHU486"O<,.CBE6S8$/EB-\&1(B2LAB2L5]5U(5@A5.CB2/
,$WB2LH5O<,.BE6?8$/EBD/SRaHY$62,R=Z ,$6D5<;>8$@*=0U(5 14/o8$U4148$/E53\&1(B2LF*'2 
2
km14/
8$UG148$/E539\&14B2L9w`2 *
2
kH8>Z/Z,Z



 

   "!$#&%'()(
[ L014/q5<;>='576?14@A5.CBd\-8$/yO78626S14539,RB]1G.9B2L5*14.>;148$.P=H62,JIl1G.HO<5b14.f+mLH14.H8A8$.031(B2/&=0R62=h,/E5\m8$/
BE,g1G.I$5/EB214Y8BE5B2L5o62,U(5*,$Wd3H1457B2862nf/SR=H=0U(5@*5.B28B21(,.u\&1(B2Lu/E=h5O71r'OIl1(B28$@o14.H/`8$.H3c@*14.576?8$U4/w,.
B2L5914.HO71G35.HO<5D,$Wy8$.H3{@A,$6SB28$U41(BncW_6S,@ 5/E,$=0LH8Y$58$Ud8$.03M/EBE,@*8$OSLO78$.HO<576S/7k-8U(58$3H14.YKO78$RH/E59,$W
@A,$62B28$UG1(BnP14.PB2L+
5 *14.>;148$.D=H62,JIl14.0O<5$Z
[ LH57625N\-57625.H14.H5N/E=h5O71rOP.CRHBE6S1(5.CB2/*,$W14.CBE57625/EB7kma0RB*8~- ,PWj8$O<BE,$6S1G8$Ud5<;>='576?14@A5.CBA\-8$/D.,$B
O<,.H/21G3576253KWj58$/21(a0U(5$Z [ L5A/2RH=H=0U(5@A5.CB2/y\ 576S5*14.H/EBE58$38$3H@o14.H14/EBE576S53f1G.fO<,@ba014.08B21(,.u8$.H3K58$O?L
Wj,R6iWj8$O<BE,$6?/i\-8$/1435.CB21r053XaCn8w=0862B21GO7RHU486i/E57Bi,$Wh.CRBE6?1(5.B2/s8$/"3014/E=0U48n$53A14.XB2L5qWj,U4U(,\]14.YyB28a0U(5$Z
8$O<BE,$6
|


.f14O<62,.lRBE6S1(5.CB2/ y ,/E5Jv3H8n
/&57B214.,U
 $$ #10
$ lZ@AY
2 1G.HO
/ 1(ah,-3 8Il14.
&
l Z@AY
1G8$O714.
]
4w1(B28$@*14.+
.g,U(nla35.CR0@
-57B28O7862,$BE5.5
l5U(5.H14R0@
4y1(B28$@o146
.

 $@*Y
$@AY
- 5Y
@*Y
- 5Y
$@*Y

[ LH5B28a0U(5,$Wi@A,$62B28$U414BnD6S8BE5/&14/q/SL,\&.Na'5U4,\`x
yRH@ba'576q,$W
58B2LW_62,@
y
7 576S/E,.>n$586?/&,$W
$8 UGUO78$RH/E5/
[ 6258B2@A5.CB ,$a0/E5762I8B21(,.k 98 7O 8$.HO<576]358B2L0/7k 8
z}
8a
8$O
aO
8$3
a3
O73
8ahO73

$$$
$
v
$$$
J
$
$
$

7
v
>
7
>
7

$

$
$$
$$
$$
$
$$
v
$$

[ LH5qBE6258B2@A5.CB5 !h5O<B2/ 8625&5/EB214@*8BE53RH/214.YU(,$YUG14.586"@A,>35UWj,$6"B2L5d6?8BE5/",$WO78$.HO<576 3H58B2LH/

14.KB2L5A514YLB`Y$6S,R=0/7Z # WB2L5O<,RH.B2/e8625*6257Y86S3H53u8$/`8=H=H6S,;14@*8BE5U(n 7 ,14/2/E,.u3014/EBE6S1(aRBE53k'B2L5.
B2L5DIv86?148$.HO<5D,$WdB2L5PU(,$Yg,$W]8f/S14.YU(5*6S5/E=h,.H/E51G/b8=H=062,;14@*8BE5U(nV:5V\&LH57625;514/bB2L5 7 ,14/S/E,.
@A58$.Z

Chl=<<2?>>l>>@>><
$$q>HC>i>0$$ l>s2sSSsS
A >>>>lv"2l>C$'>$'C'>Cvh>0vHhvCH
HCHC$$
uJ Q QJ' Qv Q

BClC$$ 
C
u l ClC C ' lCl lC

QCC>llCCCsSHB>l'>

l l Cl

dllliCC>>s$dC
{'>l>$0C07$$dl BHC7>ClHJ'0$

D :C>>$>CllHv'

"S  { sEm~ "2m

 l v CC l   > C  Cl VC l > <  C lC

l$0$m<dC2vl0 <v2$>

0.20

A:C

Effects
0.10

0.15

0.0

0.05

A:B

C:D

B
0.5

1.0
Half-normal Quantiles

1.5