PERT PERT Steps 1.

1. Break down a given project into various jobs or tasks and identify each of these jobs or tasks. 2. Determine the sequence of these jobs or tasks and develop a network. 3. Estimate the duration time of each activity. 4. Obtain each activitys expected duration time. 5. Determine the time variance of each activity. 6. Determine the sequence of these jobs or tasks and develop a network. 7. Calculate the probability of project completion on a given time or date

Break down a project into individual jobs or task Arrange the jobs or tasks into a logical network Estimate each job or tasks duration time Develop a schedule

Identify jobs or tasks controlling the project completion Redistribute resources or funds to improve the schedule

Three Time estimate

OADT is the optimistic activity duration time. More specifically, this is the minimum time for completing an activity PADT is the pessimistic activity duration time. More specifically, this is the maximum time for completing an activity MLADT is the most likely activity duration time. More specifically, this is the most likely time that it will take to complete an activity

EADT= EADT is the expected activity duration time V= V is the measure of variability in the activity completion time The larger V, the less reliable

,the higher the likelihood the activity will be .

completed much earlier or much later than

PROBABILITY OF Finishing by a target completion date

Where DT- is the due time or date for completing the project EEC - is the earliest expected completion time of the last network activity y is the total sum of variances of activity duration times along the network critical path ( i. e., )

Sample Problem: What is the probability of completing the project in 27 days? What is the latest likely date by which the project will be completed? Solution:

The probability of completing the project within 27 days is equal to the area under the normal curve to the left of z= -0.82. Referring to the table of Three time estimate, the probability is 0.207 or about 21% To answer the second question, suppose we rephrase it to ask: At what date is there a 95% probability that the project will have been completed? Again, using the table and interpolating, a probability of .95 is seen to have a z value of approximately 1.645

= 33.03 days