James A. Winnefeld ‘Mary E. Morris Where Environmental Concerns and Security Strategies Meet Green Conflict in Asia and the Middle EastThis research was supported by RAND using its own research funds. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Winnefeld, James A, 1929 ‘Where environmental cancers and security strategies meet green conflict in Asia and the Middle East James A. Winnefeld, Mary E. Mortis pom. “MR-378:RC. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0.8330-1536-2 1. War—Eavironmental aspects. 2. Environmental Alogradation—Social aspects. 3. National security Middle East. 4. National securiy—Asia, TL. Moris, Mary E, 1941 Tl RAND. — Ill. Tide TDI95 29351995 368731220 9414598 ce RAND is a nonprofit institution that seeks to improve public policy through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors Cover design: Alisha Pitts Cover photograph: John F. Peterson RAND Copyright ©1904 Published 1994 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 ‘To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet: order@rand.org.This report was developed in response to a perceived gap in national security planning between environmentalists and national security planners. Simply put, the authors believe these two groups tend 10 either talk past one another or not listen to each other. Part of the problem is that the medium of exchange between their interests is only imperfectly understood. That medium has two focal points: (1) the objectives of all public policy to advance the security and welfare of the citizenry (whether national or global), and (2) the role of envi- ronmental degradation in causing acute conflict and the role of acute conflict in causing environmental degradation. The intent of this re- port is to provide an expanded perspective of this medium of ex- change, to show where the environmental and traditional security concerns meet, and to suggest their implications for the objectives of both communities. ‘We were unsuccessful in getting government funding for this project, and turned to RAND's management for corporate support. That support was both forthcoming and sufficient to the task at hand, and ‘we are grateful for it and the spirit in which it was provided. We should also point out that neither of us is a “green,” that is, we are not working environmental scientists, advocates, or policy analysts. Rather, we are regional national security analysts who have been struck by the degree to which environmental concerns are starting to intrude on the customarily closed domains of national security and strategy planning. During the course of our research on the topic addressed in this report, we gradually came to better understand ‘those concems (while not accepting what we consider the more ex- ‘treme positions of some in those communities) and agree with the