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Phân tích kỹ thuật cơ bản
Phân tích kỹ thuật cơ bản
4/14/12
Ni dung chnh
Phn 1: 1. C bn v th trng ti chnh 2. C bn v kinh t 3. Phn tch u t: phn tch c bn VS phn tch k thut v cc xu hng phn tch mi trn th trng. Phn 2: 1. Phn tch k thut nhng vn c bn 2. Cc cu hi c bn trong phn tch k thut pht sinh trong qu trnh u t 3. Cc cng c c bn trong phn tch k thut 4. Tng kt 4/14/12
Phn tch ti chnh v phn tch k thut mt s im cntrlng ti chnh l ni giao dch mua bn u . Th
cc sn phm ti chnh. Th trng ti chnh chu s chi phi t cc yu t ca nn kinh t ni chung, v quan trng hn l k vng ca cc c nhn tham gia trn th trng. Nhng iu ny nh hng n gi c hng ha giao dch. Phn tch k thut l mt h thng t duy phn tch th trng. Phn tch k thut phn tch gi, khi lng t hiu v tm l th trng v d bo cc xu hng gi c.
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trng ti chnh: Trn phng din th trng l ni cc bn tham gia trao i mua bn cc sn phm ti chnh. V vy, yu t cung cu vn l yu t quyt nh. Cc sn phm ti chnh: tri phiu, c phiu, sn phm phi sinh i vi doanh nghip: y l mt trong cc knh huy ng vn qua cc hnh thc c phiu, tri phiu - n, cc cng c phi sinh chuyn i. i vi nh u t: y l mt hnh thc to thu nhp, li nhun, l mt knh u t. 4/14/12 i vi c quan chnh ph: L mt hn th
trc ca th trng: c bn c th k n th trng do gi (price driven) ch huy v th trng do lnh t mua ch huy (order driven). Trn gc pht hnh: th trng s cp v th trng th cp. Mua bn c phiu cha nim yt v ln u tin sau khi c phn ha s cp, mua bn trn OTC hoc trn th trng CK th cp. Trn gc th t: Th trng nim yt v th trng cha nim yt. Cc yu t quan trng khi u t trn tng 4/14/12 th trng:
tch k thut ch p dng vi th trng chng khon bi v th trng chng khon c yu t thanh khon, thng tin d dng cp nht. tch k thut cha th p dng i vi cc th trng khc nh tri phiu, hay c phiu upcom.
Phn
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C bn v kinh t
Li sut: Li sut l yu t c bn nht ca th trng ti chnh. Li sut l cng c qun l ti chnh ca chnh ph. Thng thng li sut c mi tng quan nghch vi s tng trng tn dng, v cc ch s trn th trng chng khon, nhng li c mi tng quan thun i vi th trng hng ha. Kim ch lm pht: chnh sch tht cht tin t, gim chi tiu cng. V d: tng t l d tr bt buc, tng li sut c bn, gim tng trng tn dng Pht trin kinh t: chnh sch ni lng, tng chi tiu cng, u t. V d: gim t l d tr bt buc, gim li sut c bn, tng tng trng tn dng.
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C bn v kinh t
Chu k kinh t: l cc giai on m nn kinh t phi tri qua: tch ly, tng trng, nh suy thoi, y, phc hi. Rt kh c th on v nhn bit c mt nn kinh t ang trong giai on no. Theo nhng phn tch gn nht cho thy: khong cch gia cc t khng hong kinh t cng ngn, v c xu hng cho thy mt chu k kinh t c khong thi gian b thu hp li
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Ngun:http
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Phn tch k thut da vo cung cu, gi, gi tr giao dch. Xc nh xu th gi c vi gi nh mi thng tin v k vng c th hin vo gi. Nhc im: i khi gi trn th trng b y kh xa so vi gi tr thc khi m k vng nh u t qu cao. Ph thuc vo tng loi th trng v tnh thanh khon th mi p dng c. u im: Cn c vo nhng yu t th
Phn tch c bn da trn bo co ti chnh, kt qu kinh doanh, chin lc. Xc nh gi tr ni ti ca doanh nghip, gi tr tim nng da vo vic xc nh dng tin kh thi. Nhc im: i khi tp trung qu vo gi tr thc v qun i c phiu thc ra cng l mt loi hng ha phi trao i. C kh nng mt i c hi u t. u im: Cn c vo cc bo co ti chnh, nhng cng ph thuc 4/14/12 vo tin cy.
trng c xu hng hay khng? Th trng c thanh khon hay khng? Th trng c dao ng hay khng? Gi cn tng c khong bao xa? Gi rt mc no v tng mc no? Khi no th th trng o chiu Khi no mua v khi no bn? Lm th no xc nh nh v y? p dng chin lc mua vo v bn ra lin tc nh th no?
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Biu gi
theo di din bin gi c Thng thng s c 4 loi: - Line chart : biu din bng cc ng ni thng ch theo di bng gi ng ca. - Bar chart: biu din bng nhng on thng vi di ngn ty thuc vo bin trong 1 phin giao dch v cc vch th hin gi ng ca m ca. - Candle stick: biu din bng nhng thanh hnh nn, gn ging vi bar chart l cho bit bin ng cao nht thp nht trong ngy. - Point and figure : im v con s, thng k
Gip
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Line chart
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Bar chart
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th gii hin nay, cc chuyn vin phn tch thng dng loi biu ny trong phn tch l ch yu, l do chnh v tnh u vit ca n. l s phn nh r nt s bin ng ca gi chng khon. Hai k t m dng biu ny s dng l:
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Candle stick
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Candle stick
y l dng biu ci tin ca biu dng then chn (Bar chart) c ngi Nht khm ph v p dng trn Th trng chng khon ca h u tin. C u im l th hin rt nhiu thng tin, v c th gip nh u t hiu r hn v th trng thng qua cc mu hnh gi c sn, hoc cc mu nn.
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Cc mu hnh nn d bo o chiu
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nn ngn, v bng nn di. i vi hammer gi ng ca phi l gi cao nht. i vi Hanging man gi m ca phi l gi cao nht trong ngy. Hiu qu hn nu hammer i vi khi lng cc thp v hanging man i vi khi lng giao dch cc cao.
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Cc mu hnh nn o chiu
Ba
ngc (inverted hammer) v sao chi (shooting star): i vi ba ngc gi m ca l gi thp nht trong ngy, khi lng giao dch thp. i vi sao chi, gi ng ca l gi thp nht trong ngy km theo khi lng giao dch t bin.
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Cc mu hnh nn o chiu
Hnh
nn doji l mu hnh c gi ng ca bng gi m ca, bng nn di. Nn doji thng cho tn hiu o chiu tt khi kt hp vi cc nn giao dch trc. Ch n yu t tm l ca th trng c th hin qua thn nn v bng nn. Kt hp vi khi lng giao dch v ngng h tr
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Cc mu hnh nn o chiu
Mt
s mu hnh khc ca nn Doji, nhng c im ca Doji vn l bng nn di, gi m ca v gi m ca rt gn nhau. Doji Dragon v Grave Doji cho tn hiu o chiu tin cy hn. Doji kt hp vi cc mu hnh nn khc cho du hiu mua bn.
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Cc mu hnh nn o chiu
pattern: bao gm 2 cy nn, nn u tin bao gi cng ngn hn nn th 2 v thn nn th nht bao gi cng nm trong thn nn th 2. Nn u tin cho thy xu hng ca trend hin ti v nn th 2 cho thy xu hng mi. Nn engulfing bao gm 2 dng cho tnh hiu mua v bn. Hiu qu ca Engulfing cng cn nh gi bin i ca khi lng, cc ngng cn v h tr.
Engulfing
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Engulfing, bao gm 2 nn, nn th nht c thn nn lun di hn nn th 2, thng nn th nht biu th xu hng hin ti ca gi. Harami thng xy ra trng hp nn th 2 l doji. Harami pattern bao gm 2 dng l bullish v bearish Harami pattern hiu qu hn khi kt hp vi khi lng giao dch, cc ngng cn v ngng h tr.
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Sng Elliot
s nguyn tc ca sng Elliot Ty theo thi gian ln ca sng s c phn theo th t sau Grant Supercycle: sng ko di nhiu thp k, i khi c th k Supercycle: ko di t vi nm n vi thp k Cycle: ko di t 1 n vi nm Primary: ko di t vi thng n vi nm Intermediate: ko di t vi t tun n vi thng Minor: ko di trong vi tun 4/14/12
Mt
Quy tc nhn din sng Nhng nguyn tc ny ch nhm gip vic m sng hon chnh hn, vic khng p ng mt trong cc nguyn tc ny i hi ngi phn tch cn thm thng tin iuu chnh phn tch sng. Sng 1,3,5 thng l nhng sng bin ng, tuy nhin sng 3 v 5 l sng thng bin ng nht. Sng bin ng l sng c chia thnh nhiu sng nh hn. Sng 3 khng bao gi l sng ngn nht trong 3 sng 1,3,5 v thng l sng di nht. Sng s 5 thng kt thc v to nh ti im tip xc vi ng xu hng ni t nh ca sng 1 v 3. Sng s 5 thng di 1.618 - 2.618 so vi sng s 1. Sng 2 v 4 l sng hi i vi xu hng chnh. Nu sng s 2 t bin ng th sng s 4 thng s bin ng. Sng s 2 thng ch dao ng t 20% - 80% ca sng s 1, v sng 4/14/12 s 4 thng dao ng trong khong 24% - 50% ca sng s
Sng Elliot
Sng Elliot
Sng A: thng thng s ri vi dc ln, trng hp sng 5 c dc tng ln th sng A s c dc ln hn sng 5. im cui ca sng A s nm trong khong sng 3. Sng B thng nm trong khong 50% - 70% ca sng A. Sng C c di thng l t 1.618 - 2.618 ca sng A. Nhiu trng hp cho thy sng C l sng di nht nhng cha c trng hp no cho thy sng C vt qua 7 ln ca sng A. dc ca sng C thng t dc hn sng A. Sng C cng ko di hn sng A.
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Sng Elliot
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L thuyt Dow
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L thuyt Dow
2. Ngoi 3 loi trends trn, Dow cn gii thch cho vic hnh thn cc xu th bng cch cho rng xu th lun c 3 k: k tch ly ( accumulation stage), k tham d chung ( public participation) v cui cng l k phn pht ( distribution stage) 3. V ch s Dow trung bnh c bn bao gm cc c phiu t nhng mng khc nhau phn tip theo ca l thuyt Dow ni v vic ch s trung bnh ca nhng mng khc nhau phi khng nh ln nhau.
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xu hng l ng th hin xu hng ca mt knh bng cch ni cc y ca cc bar hay nn gi, hoc ni t cc nh ca bar hay nn gi. ng xu hng tt nht l ng ni qua nhiu nh hoc y nht. ng xu hng cho php d bo xu th thay i. Khi im tim cn ca cc bar hay nn gi cng cao vt qua cc ng xu hng, cho thy kh nng o chiu rt cao. Khi gi nm di ng xu hng, th im tim cn k tip s l ngng cn. Ngc li khi gi nm trn ng xu hng, th l ngng h tr.
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Dy s Fibonanci
Dy s do nh tan hc ngi Leonardo Fibonacci (1175-1250) pht minh ra. Bt u l s 0 v s 1, sau l nhng s k tip c to ra bng cch cng 2 s ng trc. V d 1 = 1+0, 5 = 3+2, 34=21+13. iu k diu hn l c ly s ln chia cho s nh hn mt bc , v d 89/55 ta s c 1.618; ly s nh chia cho s ln hn 1 bc, v d 21/34 ta s c 0.6180, ly s nh chia cho s ln hn 2 bc, v d 13/34 ta s c 0.382. ng dng trong Fibo
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Trong bt k mt th no ta u thy sau mt giai on gi chuyn ng theo xu th ca th trng th gi s hon li mt cht trc khi quay tr li chuyn ng theo xu th c. Nhng chuyn ng ngc xu th ny thng c ln vo nhng khon c th d on c v c gi l mc thoi lui (hon li).
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Fibonacci Retracement Levels (Cc mc thoi lui Fibonacci Retracement Level VNIndex ang trong Fibonacci).
xu hng gim v hi v n mc Fibo 50% ri tip tc theo xu hng gim.
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Retracement Level VNIndex ang trong xu hng tng v hi v n mc Fibo 50% ri tip tc theo xu hng chnh l tng
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Fibonacci Retracement Level VNIndex ang trong xu hng tng v hi v n mc Fibo 100% v o chiu xu hng gim.
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Fibonacci Extension.
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Fibonacci Extension.
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Fibonanci fan
ng
xu hng gia hai im cc. ng thng ng n c v ra thng qua im cc th hai. Ba ng xu hng sau c v t im cc u tin chng chy ngang qua ng thng ng n ti cc mc Fibonacci 38,2%; 50%; 61,8%.
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Fibonanci fan
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Trong bt k mt th no ta u thy sau mt giai on gi chuyn ng theo xu th ca th trng th gi s hon li mt cht trc khi quay tr li chuyn ng theo xu th c. Nhng chuyn ng ngc xu th ny thng c ln vo nhng khon c th d on c v c gi l mc thoi lui (hon li).
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Fibonacci Retracement Levels (Cc mc thoi lui Mc hon li trung Fibonacci).bnh thng gp nht l 50%.
Bn
cnh cn c cc mc hon li thng thy khc l cc mc 1/3 (33%) v 2/3 (66%). C ngha l giai on iu chnh ca xu th gi s hon li nm trong khong 1/3 - 2/3 mc tng (hay gim) trc t c. Nu mc hon li cao hn: s xy ra s o chiu th trng - gi s chuyn ng theo xu th o ngc xu th trc m khng quay li chuyn ng theo xu th .
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Xu th v thanh khon
Th -
trng c xu hng v thanh khon hay khng? Dng ng xu hng, knh xu hng xc nh xu th hin ti ca th trng, tng gim. Dng ngng h tr v support xc nh kh nng xu hng tng hay gim c th tip tc hay khng? Vic xc nh r xu hng s gip cho vic u t an ton, v p dng cc cng c phn tch k thut khc hiu qu hn. Tnh thanh khon ca th trng c th 4/14/12 hin qua khi lng giao dch. Nguyn tc:
Xu th v thanh khon
nh xu th: - ng xu hng knh xu hng - Chui bollinger - Zigzag - C th quan st mt ca cc ngng h tr v ngng cn. Mt cng ln th ngng cn i vi mua hoc bn cng ln. Xc nh thanh khon - Khi lng giao dch - Trung bnh khi lng giao dch - Cc ch s OBV, MFI.
Xc
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Mua v bn ti mc gi no?
lu tnh trng thanh khon ca th trng. Lun cn phi xc nh nhng im m gi to nh hoc y v s nhng ngng h tr hoc cn i vi xu th. Vic ph v ngng cn hoc ngng h tr u cho php nh u t nh gi v lc mua hoc bn ti thi im hin ti. Mua ti ngng c mc h tr mnh v bn ti ngng cn mnh trong iu kin th trng r rng v c thanh khon tt. Khng nn mua 100% ti khon khi gi 4/14/12 tng v chm ngng cn
Lun
Mua v bn ti mc gi no?
C -
th xc nh ngng cn v h tr bng Fibo extension Fibo c bn ng trung bnh ng Bollinger Cc mc gi to y to nh ng xu hng trend line, knh xu hng (channel line)
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hiu r th trng c th tng hoc gim. V khng tng hoc gim, th trng i ngang. Vic xc nh c kh nng o chiu tt s gip ch cho vic: - Khng mua ng nh - Khng bn ng y - Mua ng y - Bn ng nh
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c: Nguyn tc khi gi ph v ng xu hng hoc knh xu hng. Mu hnh nn Cc loi m hnh VD: 2 nh, 2 y, u vai Sng Elliot Cc ch s khc: RSI, P-SAR ng trung bnh
Cn
Tng kt
1.Trc khi quyt nh mua: - Xc nh th trng hay c phiu c thanh khon hay khng? - Xc nh liu c phiu mua c xu hng tng tip tc c? - Xc nh liu c mua ng nh v y? - c lng khong thi gian gi tng ? 2. Qun l ri ro: - Khi gi tim cn vi cc ngng ngng cn iu quan trng l phi nh gi c kh nng xu hng cn tip tc tng c hay 4/14/12