The Dempster-Shafer Theory

KR Chowdhary,
Associate Professor,
Department of Computer Science 8
Engineering, NBN Engineering College, JNv
University, Jodhpur, kr_chowdhary@acm.org
Characteristics of D-S
D-S assigns the part of the probability to the entire universe to
make the aggregate of all events to 1. This part is called
ignorance level.
As more and more evidence is added the ignorance level
reduces
Assigns belief to individual elements of the hypothesis set as
well as their subsets
Evidence is combined using a combination rule
Evidence against a hypothesis is considered to be evidence for
its negation.
Characteristics of D-S..
A particular characteristic of the D-S framework (one
which makes it different from probability theory) is
that if Bel() < 1 then the remaining evidence 1 -
Bel() need not necessarily disprove (i.e.,
supports its negation). !n other words, in D-S there is
no rule like Bel() + Bel() =1.
Some of the remaining evidence may be assigned to
propositions, which are not disjoint from , and thus
could be plausibly transferable to in light of new
information.
Example of D-S Application
Following are
evidences:
E1: against disease A = 30
E2: for Y = 60,!.e. for the set
{A,B)
evidence against A= evidence for
the complement of A, !.e.
{B,C,D)
evidence for y = for set {A,B)
X
Z
Y
D
C
B
A
When assigning evidences for a set of diagnoses, the remaining
probability(the difference to 100) is always applied to the set of
all the diagnoses, in this case {A,B,C,D).
When evidences are coupled, the probabilities are multiplied
and the intersection sets are formed.
Coupled Evidences E1 and E2:
{A,B,C,D) = 0.+ {A.B) = 0.6 E1 E2
{A,B,C,D) =0.28 {A,B) = 0.+2 {A,B,C,D)=0.7
{B,C,D) = 0.12 {B) = 0.18 {B,C,D) = 0.3
Combining Evidences
The total probability of a set of diagnoses is an
uncertainty interval [a, b|, which is estimates of
upper and lower probabilities
a= sum of the probabilities of set and all its subsets
b= the difference between 100 and the sum of
probabilities of the complement of the set and
subsets of the complement
Computing Probabilities
For {A) and {B) diagnoses it is computed as:
{A)=[{A), 1-({B,C,D)+..+{B))|=[0,.70|
{B)=[{B), 1-({A,C,D)+{A,C)+{A,D)+.)|
=[0.18,1|
!f a further evidence E3 of 50 for {D) is added, the
distribution of probabilities is changed as follows.
Computing Probabilities..
Distribution for E1, E2, and E3
{A,B,C,D)=0.1+ {D)=0.1+ {A,B,C,D)=0.28
{B,C,D)=0.06 {D)=0.06 {B,C,D)=0.12
{A,B)=0.21 {)=0.21 {A,B)=0.+2
{B)=0.09 {)=0.09 {B)=0.18
{A,B,C,D|=0.5 {D)=0.5 E3
(E18E2)
The {), empty set signifies that no diagnosis applies. Under the
assumption that set of diagnoses are complete, the empty set
can be eliminated by dividing the other probabilities by (1 - sum
of probability of empty sets), i.e., 1-{.09+.21)=0.7.
{B)=0.09f.7=.13,
{D)=0.2f0.7=28.5
{A,B)=0.21f0.7=30
{B,C,D)=0.06f0.7=8.5
{A,B,C,D)=0.1+f0.7=20
{A)=[{A), 1-({B,C,D+.)|=[0,0.5|
{B)=[{B), 1-([A,C,D)+.)|
=[0.13,0.715|
Note:
1.The uncertainty interval which was very broad with little
information, become narrower with additional information
2. Representation of diagnoses hierarchies
3. !gnorance is lowered as more information(evidence) is added.
Disadvantages
Computation effort is high as 2**n sets are to be
considered.
Subsets of the Frame of
Discernment
Each subset of the hypotheses in = {uw, ua, us, uf} is considered to
be its own hypothesis
{uw, ua, us, uf}
{uw, ua, us} {uw, ua, uf} {uw, us, uf} {ua, us, uf}
{uw, ua} {uw, us} {ua, us} {uw, uf} {ua, uf} {us, uf}
{uw} {ua} {us} {uf}
This group of all possible subsets is denoted 2

Belief
The belief in a particular hypothesis is denoted by a
number between 0 and 1
The belief number indicates the degree to which the
evidence supports the hypothesis
Evidence against a particular hypothesis is considered to
be evidence for its negation (i.e., evidence against {uw)
is considered to be evidence for {ua, us, uf), and belief
will be allotted accordingly)
Basic Probability Assignment
The basic probability assignment (bpa), represented as m,
assigns a belief number [0,1| to every member of 2
0
such that
the numbers sum to 1
m(A) represents the belief assigned to an individual element A
Any unassigned belief remaining after commitment of belief to
proper subsets is denoted m(0) - it is assigned to the entire
set, rather than the negation of the subsets.
BPA Examples
Example 1:
No evidence is available concerning the diagnosis
of a patient with jaundice. What is the bpa?
m(0) = m({uw, ua, us, uf)) = 1, and 0 is assigned
to every other subset
BPA Examples
Example 2:
!n some case ({uw, ua)) is supported to the
degree 0.6. No evidence is given to support a
choice between other two. What is the bpa?
m({uw, ua)) = 0.6, and
m(0) = m({uw, ua, us, uf)) = 1 - 0.6 = 0.+
BPA Examples
Example 3:
Evidence disconfirms the diagnosis of hepatitis to
the degree 0.7. What is the bpa?
Evidence against hepatitis is considered evidence
for not(uw). Therefore,
m({ua, us, uf)) = 0.7,
and m(0) = 0.3
BPA Examples
Example +:
Evidence confirms the diagnosis of hepatitis to the
degree 0.8. What is the bpa?
m({uw)) = 0.8, m(0) = 0.2
Belief Function
The belief function (Bel) corresponds to a
specific bpa (m)
!t measures the total amount belief in an
element A
Bel({uw, ua, uf)) = m({uw, ua, uf)) + m({uw, ua))
+ m({uw, uf)) + m({ua, uf)) + m({uw)) + m({ua))
+ m({uf))
Belief Function
What is Bel(0) ?
Bel(0) = 1 by definition of bpa
m({uw)) = 0.6. What is Bel({uw)) ?
For singletons, Bel(A) = m(A). Therefore,
Bel({uw)) = 0.6
Combining Belief Functions
As new evidence is gathered, belief functions may
need to be combined
For two existing belief functions Bel
1
and Bel
2
, a new
belief function, Bel
1
(+) Bel
2
is computed from the
combination of the related bpas (m
1
and m
2
)
m
1
(+) m
2
= m
1
(X) m
1
(Y)
Combining Belief Functions
Example 5:
The physician performs two tests on a patient with
jaundice. The first test supports intrahepatic
cholestasis ({uw, ua)) to degree 0.6. The second
test disconfirms hepatitis to degree 0.7. What are
the associated belief functions?
Combining Belief Functions
m
2

{0.4)
{uw, ua}
{0.6)

{0.3)
{ua, us, uf} {0.7)
m
1
(0.6 x 0.7)=0.42
{ua}
{uw, ua}
(0.6 x 0.3)=0.18
{ua, us, uf}
(0.28)

(0.12)
The total belief associated is always 1. In this case:
[m1(X) (+) m2(Y) ] = 0.42 + 0.18 + 0.28 + 0.12 = 1
Combining Belief Functions
Now we can compute the belief functions the
same way we did before:
Bel
1
(+) Bel
2
({uw, ua)) = m
1
(+) m
2
({uw, ua)) +
m
1
(+) m
2
({uw)) + m
1
(+) m
2
({ua))
= 0.18 + 0 + 0.+2
= 0.60
.and so on
Combining Belief Functions
!f a third test were administered by the
physician, it could be combined with the
previous two tests in exactly the same way.
Any number of belief functions can be
combined.
Belief !ntervals
Bel(A) gives the total amount of belief in a subset, A
Bel(A
c
), or the belief in the complement of A, is also
useful information
1- Bel(A
c
) is called the plausibility of A
1- Bel(A
c
) > Bel(A) , or,
Bel(A) + Bel(A
c
) < 1
Belief !ntervals
The width of the belief interval [Bel(A), 1- Bel(A
c
)|, !.e., [belief,
plausibility| is the sum of the belief committed to elements that
intersect A, but are not subsets of A
!f A={uw), the interval would be
1 - Bel(A
c
)= 1 - Bel({ua, us, uf))
= 1 - [m({ua, us, uf)) + m({ua, us)) +
m({ua, uf)) + m({us, uf)) + m({ua))
+ m({us)) + m({uf))|
The width of the interval therefore represents the amount of
uncertainty in A, given the evidence
Summary
Dempster-Shafer theory allows updating of beliefs
based on evidence gathered
Since hypotheses are not limited to singletons, more
freedom is allowed
Uncertainty is included in the model