Ch.

4: Financial Forecasting, Planning, and Budgeting

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Tujuan Pembelajaran
Mahasiswa mampu untuk:
Menggunakan metode persentase penjualan untuk meramal kebutuhan pembiayaan perusahaan Menjelaskan ketrbatasan metode persentase penjualan Menghitung tingkat pertumbuhan perusahaan yang berkelanjutan Membuat anggaran kas dan menggunakannya untuk mengevaluasi jumlah dan waktu yang kebutuhan pembiayaan perusahaan Memahami jenis-jenis anggaran dan proses penyusunan anggaran
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Pokok Bahasan
Peramalan keuangan Keterbatasan Metode Peramalan Persentase Penjualan Tingkat Pertumbauhan Berkelanjutan Perencanaan Keuangan dan Pengaanggaran

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Financial Forecasting
1) Project sales revenues and expenses.

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Financial Forecasting
Project sales revenues and expenses. Estimate current assets and fixed assets necessary to support projected sales.
Percent of sales forecast

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Percent of Sales Method

Suppose this years sales will total $32 million. Next year, we forecast sales of $40 million. Net income should be 5% of sales. Dividends should be 50% of earnings.
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This year

% of $32m 25% 50%

Assets Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Assets Liab. and Equity Accounts Payable Accrued Expenses Notes Payable Long Term Debt Total Liabilities Common Stock Retained Earnings Equity Total Liab. & Equity
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$8m $16m $24m $4m $4m $1m $6m $15m $7m $2m $9m $24m

12.5% 12.5% n/a n/a n/a

Next year

% of $40m 25% 50%

Assets Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Assets Liab. and Equity Accounts Payable Accrued Expenses Notes Payable Long Term Debt Total Liabilities Common Stock Retained Earnings Equity Total Liab. & Equity
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12.5% 12.5% n/a n/a n/a

Next year

% of $40m 25% 50%

Assets Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Assets Liab. and Equity Accounts Payable Accrued Expenses Notes Payable Long Term Debt Total Liabilities Common Stock Retained Earnings Equity Total Liab. & Equity
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$10m $20m $30m $5m $5m $1m $6m $17m $7m

12.5% 12.5% n/a n/a n/a

Predicting Retained Earnings

Next years projected retained earnings = last years $2 million, plus: projected sales

net income sales

x(1
x

cash dividends) - net income )

$40 million x

.05

(1 - .50)

= $2 million + $1 million = $3million

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Next year

% of $40m 25% 50%

Assets Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Assets Liab. and Equity Accounts Payable Accrued Expenses Notes Payable Long Term Debt Total Liabilities Common Stock Retained Earnings Equity Total Liab. & Equity
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$10m $20m $30m $5m $5m $1m $6m $17m $7m $3m

12.5% 12.5% n/a n/a n/a

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Next year Assets Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Assets Liab. and Equity Accounts Payable Accrued Expenses Notes Payable Long Term Debt Total Liabilities Common Stock Retained Earnings Equity Total Liab. & Equity IIS

% of $40m

$10m $20m $30m

$5m $5m $1m $6m $17m $7m $3m $10m $27m

25% 50%

12.5% How much 12.5% n/a Discretionary n/a Financing will we n/a Need?

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Next year Assets Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Assets Liab. and Equity Accounts Payable Accrued Expenses Notes Payable Long Term Debt Total Liabilities Common Stock Retained Earnings Equity Total Liab. & Equity IIS

% of $40m

$10m $20m $30m

$5m $5m $1m $6m $17m $7m $3m $10m $27m

25% 50%

12.5% How much 12.5% n/a Discretionary n/a Financing will we n/a Need?

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Predicting Discretionary Financing Needs

Discretionary Financing Needed = projected total assets $30 million projected total liabilities projected owners equity

$17 million - $10 million

= $3 million in discretionary financing

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Sustainable Rate of Growth

g* = ROE (1 - b)
where

b = dividend payout ratio (dividends / net income) ROE = return on equity (net income / common equity) or

ROE = net income x sales

sales
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assets

assets common equity

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Budgets
Budget: a forecast of future events.

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Budgets
Budgets indicate the amount and timing of future financing needs. Budgets provide a basis for taking corrective action if budgeted and actual figures do not match. Budgets provide the basis for performance evaluation.
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