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    4 views9 pages

    Lua Chon Thanh Cong 5

    Uploaded by

    api-3738552

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
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    of 9
    Lya chon Thanh cong ‘Chuong tinh Vigt Nam. BH Harvard Thing giéng rm 2000 Trang 41/64 4, Hé théng tai chinh 4.1. Sw xuét hién Iai cia fam phat KG sr khi kidm ché duge lam phit phi mi vio gita nbimg nim 1980, Vigt Nam di thin, cong trong viéc dat duce mot tbe d0 tng trxong kinh té trong di cao va On din. qui trinh phit wiéa va hoi nhdp cua nen kinh #6, vibe duy tri mot moi rudng kinh 18 vi mo ink menh ted ngn Kh6 khin hon ahiéu. Sie ing ting ciia chinh phi trong vige di phé Jam phat thai gian qua chimg té ede nha dig hinh kinh 8 vi m6 eta Vist Nam cha sin sing, hoc chwa dice giao nhimg céng cu chinh sach va kj thuat can thiét. Mic div Viét Nam 6 nimg ahi kinh té hoc duce Gao tao bai bin o tinh dd cao, nhung su thiéu vang moi trudng thao ludn, plan tich chinh sich, su cham chap caa nhiéu vign nghien etm va ruong ai hoe trong vige dap ting nhu ciu cia hoat dng ra chinh sich Ta nhizng tr ngai thye sy cho no lige st dung ning lye o6 tinh ky thude dé hogch dinh chinh sich, KSt qua la khoding eich giita nhu clu cin phai c6 hig chinh sich tinh vi dé diéu inh nin kinh « nay di tro nén phire tap hon taude rit nhiéu va nang Ive thye sut eta céc nha hogeh dinh chinh sich ngay ang bi ndi rong. Lam phat gid day di tro thinh méi lo nggi cia ed ngudi dan Lin chinh phi, mét phan 1a do rite lym phat thye t# cao hen nhiéu so vii liu cng bd chinh thie. Chi tga trong nude di ting manh Khi gid tri xudt khidu diu lia ting cao nga, cic Kkhodn vién to phat trién chinh thic, FDI, vay ng vi kiéu héi vin viép we dn dn dé vao Vigt Nam. Ké tk nim 2003, doanh sb ban lé danh nghia cia Viét Nam lign tye ting voi tc d5 trén 20% méi nim, Dau tu ting eon hanh hon nia, trong khi leong cung thye (do bing san Iegng thye eg thim hut theong mai thye) chi ting diréi 10% mot nm. Néu nr chi tiéu ting hon 20%, trong khi long cumg, tave ting chua dén nia s6 dé, thi chénk iéch gitta hai dai krone ‘phai la lam phat"? Mac dit s6 Tigu lam phét eng b6 chinh thie thip hon do dya vio gid cia mt gié hing hoa nhdt dint, nhumg ti abimg tinh toi trén 6 thé Khing dinh ring trén thye t2, lam phit é@ len tdi mac hai com s6, vi dd day tri ¢ mie hai con sé trong may naim tr Iai dy. Diy khdng phai la mét did ding ngac nhign. Téc 49 ting cung tien lién tye & mie tén dud 25% méi nam ké tir nm 2003, va tin dung néi dia cing tang tren 35%. Trong khi nhap khan ‘ng d6t biéa tong miy nim gin day dé dap ting v6i luyng edu ni dia ting thi d6i voi moe 6 hing héa nhu khich san, vin phing, ign, lao dn, hang héa chit yéu duge sin xuit trong nude — khong thé tang mi gid cla nhimg hing hoa nay phai ting theo téc dé tang cung tien. Thé nhung tai sao tac 6, ‘ng mung cua Viét Nam lai chi ting c6 7-8% trong khi dau ur hang nim cua nén kinh 16 chiém (i 35% GDP? Luu J 1a Dai Loan da timg ting tradng t6i 10% liga tue trong 18 nim. ‘yéi mt lugng dau tu ichiém ton hon nhieu, chi chiém khong GDP ma thé 1 ning ~ hay néi chung la nhimg ich twong img. Két qui 1A Chinh pha Vit Nam da quyét dinh tang cung tién nhim duy tii téc d6 ting truémg cao trong. mt thoi gian dai, Tuy nhién, khi su mét cin déi gia te do tang cung tien va téc 5 tang trudng GDP tri nén ngiy mot lén thi sitc ép lam phat bat diu xuat hign, Nhu duge minh hoa trong Hinh 8, trong hai nm 2005 va 2006, GDP cia Vit Nam ting 17%, trong khi d6 M2 (gbm tiga mit trong liu théng vi ti8n giti ngin hang) ting tdi 73%, Trai Iai trong eimg giai doan nay, GDP cia Trang Quée ting 22% trong khi M2 chi ting e6 36%. Chénh léch givin © Didu tra mite séng ho gia dinb nm 2002 vi 2004 cho thei oan ry, cung ting khoding 8,504/rm nén teu dung va chi titu hue su ting mbanh 4é bige pita sh hi thang seu dong ting 17-18% mi nam, Vi rong giat I lam pit a vio khong 9%. Tuy ahién, du t tng chan hon 004, VI vay lam phit hal con sb Adibu hon tan e0 the. Sw Me in hie a he mt phn de bn Lu Liya chon Thanh cong CChuong tinh Vigt Nam, BH Harvard ‘Thang giéng nam 2008, Trang 42 64 ting truGng cung én va ODP 6 Théilan edn thép hon nti, Ting wycng ‘Nam thip hon ota Trung Quéc nhumg tic d6 ting cung tién Iei cao gin gap doi. Két qua la trong khi chi s6 gid tiéu ding & Trung Quéc trong nam 2007 chi khong 6,5% thi ¢ Viét Nam len 16H 12.6%, Hinh 7. Chénh ich gidia tée d6 tang cung tién va GOP, 2004-2007 Trung Quéc Thai-lan 100) 4 8 Tai sao cung tién ctia Vigt Nam Iai ting nhanh nhy vy M@t aguyén abn chink la do ahjp dO ting chi tiéu eta nha nude. ‘Tong chi tiéu cia nha nude trong nim 2006 1a 321 nghin ty ding, tng 221.8 nghin ty dong (hay 45%) so véi nm 2004, Nhu vay, toe d0 wing chi tiew hing ném ota nbi nude trong giai doan 2004-2006 Ta 20.3% niim (trong duong ‘voi te dS ting trudmg doanh si bin le), Cing trong giai dogn nay, thu ngin sich ting chit yéu khéng pbai tr ngudn thu néi dia ma la tir dau mo, ng va vien tro née ngoai, Thu noi dia trong nim 2004 chidat 119 nghin 3, va trong nam 2006 1a 190 nghin ty. ting co 71 nghin ty. Trong khi 6, chi tigu ciia nha nude ting 131 ngbin ty, tt 190 én t6i 321 nghin ty, tue 1A gin gap doi site ting thu ni dja. Khi chi tiéu cia nha mude ting nhanh hon nhiéu co véi eée ngudn tha ngoai diu mo (ngay ci kini ngudn thu ting nay in tir diu m6 hay vién trq) thi nhimg khodn chi tiéu nay sé lam tang téng cdu. Thé nhung néu cde khoan chi tien nay Igi khong duge sir dung mét cach higu qua, chi déng gép duge chit dinh cho san lugng (tire 1 khong 1am cho tong cung ting m$t cach tong ing) thi tat yéu s@ din téi lam phat. ‘Mot s6 quan chite ctia chirth phit 44 46 161 cho céc mhin té khach quan nu gid du, sit thép, va thyc phim thé gigi ting IA thiphom cia lam phat. Bting 14 cae cu séc vé phia cung la mot trong nhimg nguén gay nén lam phit 6 Vigt Nam. Cho dén nim 2004, nguvi tiéu ding Viet Nam néi chung, va dic bigt la ngudi nghéo, 4% diaye loi do gid gg0 thip. Tuy nhiéa, tron méy nim tre lai diy, bn canh vigo gia go ting thi gid xing du va gi phan h5a hoe eine

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