Cc phng php d bo kinh t v kh nng p dng cho thnh ph H Ch Minh

Th.S.Nguyn Vn Phc D bo kinh t v m l mt cng vic v cng phc tp. Trong nhiu thp k qua, vi vic ng dng ngy cng nhiu cc cng c ton hc vo nghin cu kinh t, cc phng php d bo kinh t pht trin khng ngng. Cc m hnh ton v kinh t lng c vn dng mt cch trit trong cng tc d bo. Tuy nhin, cho n nay, tnh chnh xc ca cc m hnh d bo kinh t cn nhiu gii hn. Cc c quan nghin cu ln nh Ngn hng Th gii (WB), Qu Tin t Quc t (IMF) u c cc m hnh d bo rt phc tp v t m nhng cc kt qu d bo ca h lun sai bit so vi thc tin kh xa. iu ny c th nhn thy qua vic so snh cc ch tiu d bo ca h vi cc ch tiu thc t din ra sau (xem De Masi, 1996; Beach v cc tc gi, 1999). Mc d cng tc d bo l kh khn, cc c quan chnh ph, cc nh hoch nh chnh sch, nh doanh nghip, lun cn n cc d bo kinh t lm c s cho vic iu hnh chnh sch, thit lp k hoch kinh doanh. Cc d bo khng mang tnh chnh xc hon ton nhng cng phn nh c xu hng ca cc bin ng kinh t. TP.HCM v trn phm vi c nc, d bo kinh t thng c th hin thng qua cc k hoch pht trin kinh t - x hi hng nm, 5 nm v cc quy hoch, chin lc pht trin kinh t - x hi di hn hn. Tuy nhin, c s ra cc ch tiu kinh t cho cc k hoch trn thng mang nng tnh ch quan v cm tnh l nhiu, thng thiu cc c s khoa hc lun gii cho cc ch tiu ra. iu ny c th nhn thy qua s khc bit ln ca cc s liu thc t din ra sau so vi cc s liu d bo. Do , vic nghin cu tm kim cc phng thc d bo thch hp cho TP.HCM l mt vic quan trng. Di y xin tm lc mt s phng php d bo kinh t chnh c p dng rng ri trn th gii v qua xem xt kh nng p dng vo iu kin ca TP.HCM. D bo kinh t c th phn thnh: nh tnh, nh lng v s kt hp c hai phng php trn. D bo nh lng thng lin quan n vic s dng cc m hnh kinh t nh lng (nh kinh t lng, I/O, cn bng tng th) d bo. Cc phng php d bo nh lng Mc d cc m hnh nh lng tng i a dng, nhng v c bn c cc loi sau: (ngoi ra c th m rng phn loi theo tnh v ng, nn kinh t m v ng,): M hnh kinh t lng (econometric model): M hnh c th hin bng h thng cc phng trnh. Cc phng trnh ny m t mi quan h gia cc bin s kinh t vi nhau. Mt phng trnh s bao gm mt bin ph thuc v mt hoc nhiu bin gii thch. S tc ng ca mt bin gii thch ln bin ph thuc c o lng bng h s ca n v hnh thc hm ca phng trnh. Mt phng trnh tiu biu nh sau: Y(t) = f{x1(t), x2 (t), ... xn(t), u(t)}

Y(t) l bin ph thuc ti thi im t, biu trng cho ch tiu cn nghin cu hay d bo (v d nh GDP, vic lm, lm pht,). x1(t), x2 (t), ... xn(t) l cc bin gii thch ti thi im t, biu trng cho cc nhn t tc ng ln bin ph thuc. S thay i ca mt hay nhiu bin ny s dn ti s thay i ca bin ph thuc. u(t) l sai s ngu nhin, biu trng cho cc nhn t khng xc nh c tc ng ln bin ph thuc ti thi im t. Mt m hnh kinh t lng s bao gm nhiu phng trnh dng trn (v cc ng thc). M hnh ny khng i chi tit vo cc ngnh kinh t nh m hnh I/O v m hnh cn bng tng th (CGE). Cc bin thng l tng hp cho ton b nn kinh t, th hin cc mi quan h kinh t v m. M hnh n gin bao gm hm s ca cc khi cu, khi cung v khi tin t. Vic c lng cc h s ca cc phng trnh ny i hi phi c chui s liu thi gian (time-series data) di. y cng l mt hn ch c bn ca m hnh ny khi p dng vo iu kin ca Vit Nam. Cc chui s liu thi gian Vit Nam nhn chung l ngn (dui 15 nm) bi v h thng s liu thng k ca Vit Nam mi c chun ha theo thng l quc t vo u nhng nm 1990s khi chng ta chuyn t h thng MPS sang h thng SNA ca Lin Hip quc. Vic xy dng h thng cc phng trnh, vi cc bin gii thch la chn, c da trn nn tng ca l thuyt kinh t. V d nh hm tiu dng phi da trn l thuyt v tiu dng, hm u t phi da trn l thuyt v u t, iu ny dn n h qu l cc nh m hnh khc nhau c th s xy dng cc phng trnh vi cc bin gii thch khc nhau, ty thuc vo vic p dng l thuyt kinh t no. iu cng l gii v s a dng ca cc m hnh kinh t lng hin nay. Sau khi xy dng xong h thng cc phng trnh, nh nghin cu phi tp hp cc chui s liu thi gian cho cc bin v tin hnh c lng cc h s ca cc phng trnh. K thut hi quy (regression) c p dng c lng cc h s ca cc phng trnh. Sau khi c lng xong ton b cc phng trnh ca m hnh, nh nghin cu s tin hnh m phng (simulation) tc ng ca cc thay i chnh sch trong tng lai ln cc bin kinh t m mnh quan tm (v d nh tng trng, vic lm, lm pht,). Trn c s , cc kch bn d bo s c xut. Nh nghin cu cng c th tham mu cho lnh o v vic p dng chnh sch no l ti u nht da trn kt qu ca m phng. M hnh cn i lin ngnh (gi tc l I/O, Input-output): u im ca m hnh I/O so vi m hnh kinh t lng l n phn nh c mi quan l lin ngnh trong nn kinh t. Nn kinh t c phn thnh nhiu ngnh v bng I/O th hin mi lin h a ngnh ny (v d nh bng I/O ca Vit Nam v TP.HCM nm 1996 c 97 ngnh). Bng I/O c xy dng cho mt nm nht nh no . V mt hnh thc, bng I/O c dng nh sau:

Ngnh 1

Ngnh 2

Ngnh 3

Ngnh n

Zi

YI

Xi

Ngnh 1 Ngnh 2 Ngnh 3 Ngnh n Zj Vj=Wj+Rj

X11 X21 X31 X41 Z1 V1

X12 X22 X32 X42 Z2 V2

X13 X23 X33 X43 Z3 V3

X1n X2n X3n X4n Zn Vn

Z1 Z2 Z3 Zn

Y1 Y2 Y3 Yn

X1 X2 X3 Xn

Nn kinh t c phn ra thnh n ngnh. Bng trn c hiu nh sau: Xij: l gi tr sn phm ca ngnh i cung ng cho ngnh j

Zi: l tng gi tr sn phm ca ngnh i cung ng cho cc ngnh sn xut khc. Zj: l tng gi tr sn phm ca cc ngnh cung ng cho ngnh j. Yi: l gi tr sn phm ca ngnh i cung ng cho nhu cu tiu dng cui cng. Ta c v Y = C + I + G + X l GDP. Vi G : tiu dng chnh ph I : u t ca nh sn xut C : tiu dng dn c X: l xut khu rng (xut khu tr i nhp khu) Xi: l tng gi tr sn xut ca ngnh i

Vj : l gi tr tng thm ca ngnh j (thc t bao gm c khu hao v thu gin thu) Wj : thu nhp ca lao ng trong ngnh j Rj: thu nhp v vn ca ngnh j.

T bng trn, chng ta xy dng c ma trn h s A theo cng thc: Xij = aij Xj

Ma trn d bo dng n gin c th biu th nh sau: x = ( I - A ) -1 y

Vi x l vec t tng sn phm ca cc ngnh sn xut {X1, X2, X3, Xn} v y l vec t sn phm s dng cui cng ca cc ngnh sn xut {Y1, Y2, Y3, Yn}, A l ma trn h s, I l ma trn n v. T cng thc trn, chng ta thy rng c th d bo gi tr sn xut v GDP ca tng ngnh khi bit c s thay i ca nhu cu cui cng. V d nh khi tng u t cng cng vo ngnh i mt lng l q, chng ta s tnh ton c s thay i sn lng ca tt c cc ngnh cn li l bao nhiu. Nh vy, nu chng ta d bo c s thay i ca cc thnh phn ca nhu cu cui cng, chng ta s d bo c s thay i sn lng ca tt c cc ngnh kinh t. y l m hnh I/O n gin. M hnh ny c th m rng bng cch a vo mt s phng trnh hnh vi hay hm sn xut nh Vin Kinh t p dng trc y (xem Nguyn Th Cnh v cc tc gi, 1998). M hnh cn bng tng th (CGE-Computable General Equilibrium): M hnh cn bng tng th pht trin trn nn ca bng I/O nhng m rng ra cho nhiu khu vc khc ngoi khu vc sn xut. V d nh cc dng thu nhp v chi tiu ca cc h gia nh, dng duy chuyn vn, Trn c s bng I/O s xy dng bng SAM (social accounting matrix) v qua xy dng m hnh cn bng tng th. Nhiu bin l ngoi suy (exogenous) trong m hnh I/O gi l ni suy (endogenous) trong m hnh cn bng tng th. Ngoi ra, m hnh cn bng tng th cn bao gm c cc phng trnh hnh vi ca m hnh kinh t lng. Do , trong cc loi m hnh trn th m hnh cn bng tng th l ton din nht, phc tp nht v phn nh gn vi nn kinh t thc hn. M hnh c gi l cn bng tng th v n c xy dng trn gi nh cn bng ng thi ca cc loi th trng v khu vc trong nn kinh t. Gi c v sn lng iu chnh sao cho khng cn cu qu mc (excess demand) hay cung qu mc (excess supply). M hnh th hin s cn bng ng thi trn tt c cc loi th trng. Gi nh ca m hnh l nh sn xut ti a ha li nhun, ngi tiu dng ti a ha hu dng. Thng tin v th trng l hon ho. Trong iu kin cn bng, li nhun kinh t s bng khng; cc nhn t sn xut c hu dng ha hon ton (fully utilised). V m hnh m t mt cch tng th quan h ca cc bin kinh t vi nhau trong nn kinh t, do m hnh d dng nh gi tc ng ca mt bin no ln tt c cc bin cn li ca m hnh. y l c s thun li s dng m hnh vo cng tc d bo. D bo c thc hin da trn kch bn ci g nu (what if?). Vi tnh cht tng th v chi tit nh vy, cc m hnh cn bng tng th c th c hng ngn phng trnh v bin s. Cc phng php d bo nh tnh D bo nh tnh l cc d bo khng s dng cc m hnh nh lng nh trn. Phng php ph bin hin nay l phiu thm d v thu thp kin chuyn gia. i vi phiu thm d, v d nh d bo nhu cu tiu dng sp ti, nh d bo s pht phiu thm d n ngi tiu dng (v d nh iu tra v consumers confidence). Qua cc phiu thm d ny, nh d bo s phng on v mc thay i nhu cu tiu dng trong tng lai. i vi thu thp kin chuyn gia, nh d bo s tp hp kin chuyn gia am hiu su v lnh vc cn d bo. Ch tiu d bo c a ra l ch tiu c nhiu chuyn gia tn thnh nht. Ngoi ra, d bo c th cn c vo yu t ma v (seasoning) hoc yu t chu k kinh t (business cycle). D bo nh tnh cng c th kt hp vi cc phng php thng k theo di cc ch tiu nh lng nh (s trung bnh, trung bnh di ng, phn tch xu hng,).

 d bo nh tnh c c s khoa hc hn, vic thit lp khung phn tch (analytical framework) l rt cn thit. Khung phn tch s gip nhn din cc nhn t quan trng nh hng n nhn t cn d bo. Khung phn tch ny phi c thit lp trn nn tng vng chc ca cc l thuyt kinh t. Cc kt qu nghin cu trc cng l c s quan trng thit lp khung phn tch ny. Sau khi thit lp xong khung phn tch, nh d bo s cn c vo theo di v tin liu cc din bin chnh sch, th ch, nh hng ln cc nhn t ca khung phn tch v dng d bo tng lai. u v nhc im ca cc m hnh d bo: Cc m hnh nh lng Cc m hnh nh lng c u im l khc phc c s ch quan v cm tnh trong cng tc d bo. Cc ch tiu d bo thng c th hin bng cc con s c th, chnh xc. Bng cch s dng cc cng c ton hc v thng k, m hnh c th x l c cc mi quan h phc tp, nhiu chiu ca cc bin kinh t vi nhau m khng mt nh kinh t ti ba no c th c lng nh tnh trong u mnh c. Cc m hnh phc tp hin nay thng ln n hng ngn phng trnh v hng ngn bin, do phn nh hu ht cc ch tiu quan trng trong nn kinh t. i vi bng I/O v m hnh CGE cn c th nh gi tc ng lin ngnh v cho tng ngnh kinh t. iu ny rt quan trng i vi vic ra chnh sch pht trin tng ngnh v vn chuyn dch c cu trong nn kinh t. Ngy nay, vi s h tr ca my tnh, vic x l cc m hnh nh lng tr nn thun li hn rt nhiu so vi trc y. Do , cc m hnh nh lng ngy cng c p dng rng ri. Tuy nhin, cc m hnh d bo nh lng cng c rt nhiu nhc im. Th nht, cc m hnh c xy dng trn gi nh l lch s lp li. Ngha l h thng cc hm (v bng) c c lng s dng s liu trong qu kh, nhng c dng phng on cho tng lai. Vn l tng lai cha chc ging vi qu kh v hin ti. Cc iu kin c th thay i, cc mi quan h v ln ca chng c th thay i, Th hai, cc m hnh nh lng hu ht a ra cc gi nh khng ph hp vi thc t. Cc gi nh nh k thut (technology) v gi tng i (relative prices) khng thay i ca m hnh I/O r rng l v l. Nhng gi nh nh th trng hon ho, thng tin han ho, tt c th trng trong trng thi cn bng, ca m hnh cn bng tng th l hon ton khng ng v phn nh sai thc t. Th ba, v mt l thuyt kinh t, c nhng cuc tranh lun trong sut th k th 20 v kh nng tnh ton k hoch ha kinh t (thc cht l d bo v phn b ti nguyn), ni ting l cuc tranh lun gia Lange vi Mises v Hayek1 v tnh kh thi ca k hoch ha trong cc nn kinh t x hi ch ngha. Sau ny, Stiglitz2 cng c cng s hoi nghi v vai tr ca cc m hnh cn bng tng th tn c in trong vic d bo v gii thch cc hin tng th trng cc nc theo nn kinh t th trng. C hai m hnh k hoch ha tp trung v m hnh cn bng tng th tn c in u da trn nn tng gi nh l thng tin hon ho v kin thc hon ho (perfect information and perfect knowledge). Vi thng tin hon ho v kin thc hon ho th vic lp k hoch v iu phi nn kinh t t c kt qu cn bng ti u l hon ton kh thi. Nhng Hayek cho rng bn cht ca thng tin v kin thc l khng han ho. Kin thc v thng tin lun gn vi cc c nhn c th, nm ri rc trong tt c cc thnh vin tham gia th trng, khng d dng truyn t ngi ny sang ngi khc, lun lun bin i v c tnh bt nh. Do , khng mt nh k hoch hay d bo no c th bit y cc thng tin v kin thc ny c mt k hoch hay d bo chnh xc. Trong iu kin thng tin v kin thc khng hon ho, Hayek cho rng th trng khng bao gi trng thi cn bng, nu c, ch l tm thi. Bi v cn bng i hi phng on (foresight) ca bt c ngi tham

gia th trng no v cc k hoch ca nhng ngi khc tham gia th trng phi ng. Th trng ch cn bng khi tt c cc phng on ny v k hoch trng khp nhau. iu ny l khng th trong iu kin thng tin v kin thc khng hon ho. Do , th trng lun trong trng thi mt cn bng (disequilibrium) v lun lun thay i. Cc m hnh d bo da trn khi nim cn bng s khng phn nh chnh xc bn cht ca qu trnh th trng. Th t, cho d cc m hnh c phc tp n my i na th cng khng th phn nh ht c cc nhn t nh hng vo trong m hnh. Hn na, rt nhiu nhn t quan trng i vi nn kinh t nhng khng th no o lng bng con s c th c nh cc bin v th ch, lut php, vn ha, V khng th o lng c nn chng khng c a vo m hnh. Th nm, s liu khng y v khng chnh xc lun l nhng cn tr ln cc m hnh cho cc kt qu d bo chnh xc. Do cc nhc im trn, cc m hnh d bo nh lng thng cho khc kt qu khng chnh xc. Cc c quan nh Ngn hng Th gii v Qu Tin t Quc t s dng cc m hnh phc tp nht d bo, nhng kt qu d bo ca h sai bit kh ln so vi thc t. Theo De Masi (1996), dn t mt s nghin cu thng k, cho thy l trong giai on 1973-1994, cc ch tiu d bo mt nm trong bo co Trin vng Kinh t Th gii (World Economic Outlook) ca IMF c cc sai s nh sau: cho cc nc cng nghip pht trin, ch tiu tng trng GDP sai s l 1% im so vi tc tng GDP trung bnh cho c giai on l 2,75% (ngha l sai s hn 35%); ch tiu lm pht c sai s l 0,75% im so vi tc lm pht trung bnh l 5,75% cho c giai on. i vi cc nc ang pht trin, d bo ca IMF cng khng kh hn. iu quan trng na l tnh chnh xc trong cc d bo ca IMF khng h c ci thin qua cc nm. Nghin cu ca Beach v cc tc gi (1999) cho thy l sai s trong d bo ca IMF i vi tng trng GDP ca cc nc ang pht trin trong giai on t nm 1971 n 1998 l 0,57% im so vi tc tng GDP trung bnh cho c giai on l 3% (ngha l sai s gn 20%). IMF phng i tng trng GDP ca chu Phi ln hn 1,05% im so vi tc tng GDP trung bnh cho c giai on l 2,29% v ca Ty bn cu ln hn 0,51% im so vi tc tng GDP trung bnh cho c giai on l 2,11%. Cc tc gi ny cng cho thy l tnh chnh xc ca cc d bo ca IMF khng ci thin my theo thi gian. D bo nh tnh D bo nh tnh c u im l khng i hi cc s liu tnh ton phc tp. Do , vic d bo c th c tin hnh trong thi gian ngn. u im khc ca phng php ny l c th d liu c c cc yu t khng o lng c vo trong d bo nh thay i th ch, lut php, y l cc bin s m m hnh nh lng khng a vo c. Ngoi ra, v khng ph thuc vo b s liu hay h cc phng trnh nht nh no nn d bo c th c iu chnh linh hot, ph hp vi cc bin ng ca nn kinh t. Nhc im ca phng php ny l mang nng tnh ch quan v cm tnh. Nu cc nh d bo v cc chuyn gia c tham kho c trnh hiu bit thp km th cc d bo s cho kt qu rt xa ri thc tin. Kh nng vn dng cc phng php d bo nghin cu v lp k hoch cho kinh t TP.HCM Mc d c nhiu nhc im nhng d bo kinh t l cn thit gip lnh o iu hnh, pht trin nn kinh t. i vi TP.HCM, hng nm cc c quan s ngnh u c lp k hoch v d bo cho cc ch tiu kinh t - x hi nm sau v tng hp thnh k hoch pht trin kinh t - x hi hng nm do UBND TP ban hnh. Cc k i hi ng b Thnh ph u c cc k hoch v cc ch tiu pht trin 5 nm. Di hn hn l quy hoch pht

trin kinh t - x hi (nh Quy hoch Pht trin Kinh t - x hi trn a bn TP.HCM t nm 1996 n nm 2010 do Vin Kinh t thc hin). Nhn chung, cng tc d bo ca Thnh ph hin nay ch yu mang tnh nh tnh, s dng kin chuyn gia l ch yu. Cc phng php nh lng hu nh khng c p dng. Phng Nghin cu Pht trin ca Vin Kinh t vo cc nm 1997-1998 c tin hnh thc hin cc ti nghin cu p dng m hnh I/O vo trong cng tc d bo kinh t ca Thnh ph. Kt qu ca ti sau s dng gp vo iu chnh quy hoch kinh t Thnh ph n nm 2010 v k hoch 5 nm 2001-2005. Tuy nhin tnh chnh xc ca m hnh cng cn nhiu hn ch do iu kin v s liu v cc yu t khc thuc nhc im ca m hnh nh lng nh cp trn. Trong cc m hnh nh lng k trn, trong tng lai Thnh ph c th nghin cu vn dng m hnh I/O v m hnh kinh t lng. M hnh cn bng tng th i hi s liu qu phc tp vt qu kh nng ca cc c quan thng k ca Thnh ph. Mt c im trong nghin cu kinh t Thnh ph l ngoi s liu quan h vi nc ngoi (nh trng hp ca c nc) cn phi c s liu th hin mi quan h ca Thnh ph vi cc tnh, thnh khc ca Vit Nam. Nhng s liu nh vy hin nay hu nh khng c. Trc mt Vin Kinh t s tip tc p dng m hnh I/O vo d bo kinh t Thnh ph. Hin nay Thnh ph c c 2 bng I/O, mt do Vin Kinh t lp nm 1996 v mt do Cc Thng k Thnh ph lp nm 2000. Thnh ph cn phi tip tc duy tr vic xy dng bng I/O, nh k 4-5 nm mt ln phc v cho cng tc ny v nhng phn tch khc. u im ca bng I/O l cho thy mi lin h a ngnh, rt cn cho vic nghin cu chuyn dch c cu kinh t ca Thnh ph. Nu c iu kin, Vin Kinh t s xut vi Thnh ph tin hnh xy dng m hnh kinh t lng (dng n gin) th nghim d bo cho kinh t Thnh ph. Song song vi vic pht trin cc m hnh d bo nh lng, Vin Kinh t, cng cc c quan lin quan ca Thnh ph s tip tc p dng cc phng php nh tnh lu nay nh ly kin chuyn gia trong vic d bo v lp k hoch. iu quan trng hin nay l cn thit lp khung phn tch (analytical framework) theo di mt cch tng th cc nhn t tc ng n tng trng, pht trin ca Thnh ph. Khung phn tch s gip cho cc cn b nghin cu kp thi nhn din cc vn quan trng tc ng ln kinh t Thnh ph v qua a ra cc d bo st hp hn, cng nh xut vi lnh o nhng gii php kp thi thc y pht trin kinh t Thnh ph. i vi phng php thm d phc v d bo, nu c iu kin, Thnh ph nn tin hnh hng nm iu tra v lng tin tiu dng v u t, lm c s cho d bo tng cu v tng trng. y l nhng cuc iu tra m cc nc pht trin tin hnh rt thng xuyn. Ti liu tham kho 1. Beach, W. W., Schavey, A. B., and Isidro, I. M. (1999), How Reliable Are IMF Economic Forecasts?, Center for Data Analysis, Heritage Foundation, Report #99-05. De Masi, P. R. (1996), The Difficult Art of Economic Forecasting, Finance and Development, December, pp. 29-31. Hayek, F. A. (1937), Economics and Knowledge, Enonomica, New Series, Vol. 4, pp. 33-54.

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Hayek, F. A. (1948), Individualism and Economic Order, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Hayek, F. A. (1974), The Pretence of Knowledge, Nobel Memorial Lecture, delivered at Stockholm, 11 December 1974, reprinted in Littlechild (1990). Lange, O. 1936A. On the Economic Theory of Socialism, Review of Economic Studies, volume 4, no. 1(October, 1936), reprinted in Morris Bornstein (ed.)(1979), Comparative Economic Systems Models and Cases, Illinois: Richard D. Irwin, INC. Lange, O. 1936B. The Computer and Market, Review of Economic Studies, vol. 4, no. 1 (October 1936), reprinted in Morris Bornstein (ed.)(1979), Comparative Economic Systems Models and Cases, Illinois: Richard D. Irwin, INC. Mises, L. V. (1949), Human Action: A Treatise on Economics, New Haven: Yale University Press. Nguyn Hu Tn v cc tc gi (2001), Nghin Cu C S L Lun v Thc Tin Trong vic Xy Dng K Hoch Pht Trin Kinh T - X Hi 5 Nm 20012005 ca Thnh Ph H Ch Minh, ti Vin Kinh t TP.HCM.

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10. Nguyn Th Cnh v cc tc gi (1998), Vn Dng Cc M Hnh Ton Nghin Cu Quy Lut Tng Trng v Pht Trin Ca TP.HCM Trong Giai on Nn Kinh T Chuyn i, ti Vin Kinh t TP.HCM. 11. Stiglitz, J. E. (1985), Information and Economic Analysis: A Perspective, Economic Journal, Vol. 95, pp. 21-41. 12. Stiglitz, J. E. (1999), Wither Reform? Ten Years of the Transition, Paper presented at the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics, April, Wahsington, D.C. 13. Stiglitz, J. E. (2000), The Contribution of The Economics of Information to Twenthieth Century Economics, Quarterly Journal of Economics, November, pp. 1441-1478. 14. y Ban Nhn Dn TP.HCM (1996), Quy Hoch Tng Th Pht Trin Kinh TX Hi n Nm 2010. ___________________ 1. Cn gi l Economic calculation debate. Lange l nh kinh t hc Ba Lan v l gio s ti i hc Chicago. Mises v Hayek l hai nh kinh t hc o ni ting. Hayek tng ging London School of Economics v i hc Chicago, ng ot gii Nobel kinh t nm 1974. 2. Ngi i tin phong trong nghin cu v kinh t hc thng tin (thng tin khng hon ho). ng ot gii Nobel kinh t nm 2001.