Professional Documents
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Paper number
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Paper title
A comparison of re-offending by adults between 2005 and 2008 who had received different types of sentences, including imme
A comparison of re-offending by adults between 2005 and 2008 who had received different types of sentences, other than imm
Hazards of different types of re-offending
Table 1: Proven re-offending rates of matched pairs of offenders where one sentencing type is an immediate
England and Wales
Males
2005
2006
Matched pairs
Immediate custody (less than 12 months)
Community orders
Difference (percentage points)
2,391
50.2%
44.2%
6.0
3,618
54.5%
48.6%
5.9
Matched pairs
Immediate custody (less than 12 months)
Suspended sentence orders
Difference (percentage points)
343
34.7%
31.5%
3.2
1,595
42.1%
37.7%
4.5
Matched pairs
Immediate custody (1 year or more but less than 2 years)
Immediate custody (less than 12 months)
Difference (percentage points)
491
30.5%
40.7%
-10.2
425
32.7%
35.5%
-2.8
359
378
32.6%
31.5%
35.4%
-2.8
36.5%
-5.0
Matched pairs
Immediate custody (2 years or more but less than 4 years)
Immediate custody (1 year or more but less than 2 years)
Difference (percentage points)
1
Community orders and suspended sentence orders were introduced in the Criminal Justice Act 2003 and came into force from April 2005.
Includes offenders with no recorded gender.
Italics means less than or equal to 50 offenders - treat the data with caution.
*
Data based on 10 or fewer offenders are removed as they make the data unreliable for interpretation.
2
Table 2: Frequency of proven re-offending rates of matched pairs of offenders where one sentencing type is a
England and Wales
Males
2005
2006
Matched pairs
Immediate custody (less than 12 months)
Community orders
Difference in re-offences per 100 matched offenders
2,391
226.3
165.5
60.9
3,618
247.2
171.1
76.1
Matched pairs
Immediate custody (less than 12 months)
Suspended sentence orders
Difference in re-offences per 100 matched offenders
343
130.0
100.9
29.2
1,595
170.8
112.3
58.5
Matched pairs
Immediate custody (1 year or more but less than 2 years)
Immediate custody (less than 12 months)
Difference in re-offences per 100 matched offenders
491
92.3
136.7
-44.4
425
100.2
120.7
-20.5
Matched pairs
Immediate custody (2 years or more but less than 4 years)
Immediate custody (1 year or more but less than 2 years)
359
95.0
88.6
378
92.3
108.5
6.4
-16.1
Community orders and suspended sentence orders were introduced in the Criminal Justice Act 2003 and came into force from April 2005.
Italics means less than or equal to 50 offenders - treat the data with caution.
*
Data based on 10 or fewer offenders are removed as they make the data unreliable for interpretation.
Table 3: Proven re-offending custody rates of matched pairs of offenders where one sentencing type is an im
England and Wales
Males
2005
2006
Matched pairs
Immediate custody (less than 12 months)
Community orders
Difference (percentage points)
2,391
31.0%
20.3%
10.7
3,618
35.6%
23.3%
12.3
Matched pairs
Immediate custody (less than 12 months)
Suspended sentence orders
Difference (percentage points)
343
17.8%
20.4%
-2.6
1,595
23.9%
23.1%
0.8
Matched pairs
Immediate custody (1 year or more but less than 2 years)
Immediate custody (less than 12 months)
Difference (percentage points)
491
13.6%
18.7%
-5.1
425
14.4%
18.1%
-3.8
Matched pairs
Immediate custody (2 years or more but less than 4 years)
Immediate custody (1 year or more but less than 2 years)
Difference (percentage points)
359
16.7%
15.3%
1.4
378
17.5%
18.3%
-0.8
Community orders and suspended sentence orders were introduced in the Criminal Justice Act 2003 and came into force from April 2005.
Italics means less than or equal to 50 offenders - treat the data with caution.
*
Data based on 10 or fewer offenders are removed as they make the data unreliable for interpretation.
Table A1: Number of offenders in original datasets and number of matched pairs, 2005 1 to 2008
England and Wales
Males
Females
2
All offenders
2005
2006
Offenders receiving immediate custody (less than 12 m
11,718
12,154
1,271
1,383
12,989
13,537
Males
Females
2
All offenders
Males
Females
2
All offenders
Males
Females
2
All offenders
Community orders and suspended sentence orders were introduced in the Criminal Justice Act 2003 and came into force from April 2005.
Italics means less than or equal to 50 offenders - treat the data with caution.
Table A2: Re-offending comparisons of matched pairs of offenders who have received an immediate custodia
England and Wales
One-year re-offending rate
Immediate custody
Number of matched
(less than 12
pairs of offenders
months)
All offenders2
Males
Females
16,302
15,259
1,043
56.3%
55.9%
61.4%
Age
18 - 20
21 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 49
50 and over
3,381
3,489
3,470
2,491
1,721
1,501
249
54.0%
54.0%
62.2%
63.9%
56.9%
44.4%
26.5%
5,353
3,096
1,745
1,081
852
571
84.3%
43.4%
27.4%
68.0%
28.2%
11.6%
1,144
1,423
2,205
1,766
1,527
8,237
10.9%
18.7%
34.2%
46.1%
55.1%
77.3%
1
2
3
Community orders and suspended sentence orders were introduced in the Criminal Justice Act 2003 and came into force from April 2005.
Includes offenders with no recorded gender.
Refers to burglary both in a dwelling and not in a dwelling.
Italics means less than or equal to 50 offenders - treat the data with caution.
*
Data based on 10 or fewer offenders are removed as they make the data unreliable for interpretation.
Table A3: Re-offending comparisons of matched pairs of offenders who have received an immediate custodia
England and Wales
One-year re-offending rate
Number of matched
pairs of offenders
2
Immediate custody
(less than 12
months)
All offenders
Males
Females
6,822
6,489
333
44.9%
45.0%
42.0%
Age
18 - 20
21 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 49
50 and over
1,768
1,705
1,278
859
583
531
98
46.0%
43.5%
50.8%
49.6%
44.6%
29.2%
16.3%
1,431
1,424
1,094
603
512
284
43.3%
28.8%
87.0%
29.2%
65.8%
10.6%
801
893
1,229
878
623
2,398
9.6%
17.5%
31.4%
40.7%
49.4%
74.1%
1
2
3
Community orders and suspended sentence orders were introduced in the Criminal Justice Act 2003 and came into force from April 2005.
Includes offenders with no recorded gender.
Refers to burglary both in a dwelling and not in a dwelling.
Italics means less than or equal to 50 offenders - treat the data with caution.
*
Data based on 10 or fewer offenders are removed as they make the data unreliable for interpretation.
Table A4: Re-offending comparisons of matched pairs of offenders who have received an immediate custodia
England and Wales
One-year re-offending rate
Immediate custody
Number of matched
(more than 1 year
pairs of offenders
but less than 2)
1
All offenders
Males
Females
Age
18 - 20
21 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
2,028
1,996
32
35.0%
35.3%
*
761
633
328
138
110
41.8%
30.8%
32.3%
33.3%
32.7%
40 - 49
50 and over
53
5
*
*
640
376
284
274
113
60
26.4%
60.9%
19.4%
32.1%
41.6%
18.3%
295
287
420
228
172
626
8.5%
16.4%
26.4%
32.9%
43.6%
60.2%
Refers to wounding with intent to do grievous bodily harm and wounding or inflicting grievous bodily harm.
Italics means less than or equal to 50 offenders - treat the data with caution.
*
Data based on 10 or fewer offenders are removed as they make the data unreliable for interpretation.
Table A5: Re-offending comparisons of matched pairs of offenders who have received an immediate custodia
England and Wales
One-year re-offending rate
Immediate custody
Number of matched
(2 years or more but
pairs of offenders
less than 4 years)
All offenders1
Males
Females
1,518
1,495
23
32.9%
33.3%
*
Age
18 - 20
21 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 49
50 and over
552
488
235
133
61
38
11
33.7%
32.0%
33.2%
35.3%
37.7%
*
*
527
393
383
90
29
24
34.3%
21.9%
53.3%
16.7%
*
*
171
6.4%
1-2
3-6
7 - 10
11 - 14
15 or more
211
267
174
137
558
15.2%
25.1%
28.7%
33.6%
52.5%
Refers to wounding with intent to do grievous bodily harm and wounding or inflicting grievous bodily harm.
Italics means less than or equal to 50 offenders - treat the data with caution.
*
Data based on 10 or fewer offenders are removed as they make the data unreliable for interpretation.
Table B1: Logistic regression model output showing the statistically significant offender and offence character
Immediate custody <12M (1) compared with
community orders (0)
Offender characteristics
Male
Age
Age (Squared)
Age of First Offence
Age of First Offence (Squared)
Number of previous offences
Number of previous offences (Squared)
Number of previous convictions
Number of previous convictions (Squared)
Number of previous custodial sentences
Number of previous custodial sentences (squared)
Copas rate
Offence Category
Violence
Robbery
Public order or riot
Sexual
Sexual (child)
Domestic burglary
Other burglary
Theft
Handling
Fraud and forgery
Absconding or bail offences
Taking and driving away and related offences
Theft from vehicles
Other motoring offences
Drink driving offences
Criminal or malicious damage
Drugs import/export/ production/supply
Drugs possession/small scale supply
Other
Ethnicity
Unknown
White North European
White Sourth European
Black
Asian
Chinese, Japanese or SE Asian
Coefficient
0.316
0.142
0.024
0.059
-0.030
0.368
-0.057
-0.853
0.066
0.510
-0.038
1.066
SE
0.021
0.013
0.006
0.016
0.005
0.027
0.005
0.034
0.004
0.017
0.003
0.019
1.271
-0.278
0.529
1.293
0.024
-0.169
-0.311
-0.442
0.533
0.271
-0.068
-0.326
0.217
-0.470
-0.892
-0.552
-1.004
0.573
reference category
0.111
0.030
0.065
0.081
0.045
0.035
0.019
0.048
0.036
0.035
0.042
0.052
0.025
0.031
0.038
0.070
0.036
0.037
-0.080
0.592
0.386
0.310
1.746
reference category
0.056
0.072
0.059
0.062
0.104
Middle Eastern
Constant
0.925
-1.244
0.093
0.060
e one sentencing type is an immediate custodial sentence in England and Wales by gender, 2005 1 to 2008
Males
Females
2007
2008
2005
2006
2007
3,986
56.6%
49.8%
6.8
5,264
58.9%
50.6%
8.3
166
53.6%
41.6%
12.0
218
55.0%
49.1%
6.0
287
65.2%
51.9%
13.2
2,002
45.8%
38.9%
6.8
2,549
47.6%
38.8%
8.8
22
*
*
*
85
50.6%
44.7%
5.9
108
36.1%
34.3%
1.9
463
35.4%
42.1%
-6.7
617
40.7%
45.1%
-4.4
6
*
*
*
8
*
*
*
3
*
*
*
330
428
10
33.0%
35.7%
36.7%
-3.6
43.0%
-7.2
*
*
*
*
*
*
ffenders where one sentencing type is an immediate custodial sentence in England and Wales by gender, 2005 1 to 2008
Number of matched pa
Males
2007
2008
2005
Females
2006
218
283.5
169.3
114.2
2007
3,986
262.1
187.4
74.8
5,264
272.0
190.8
81.2
166
225.3
136.7
88.6
2,002
182.2
122.0
60.2
2,549
187.9
122.8
65.1
22
90.9
*
*
85
230.6
144.7
85.9
108
198.1
129.6
68.5
463
101.7
147.5
-45.8
617
109.1
153.8
-44.7
330
82.4
100.0
428
107.7
135.0
10
*
*
*
*
*
*
9
*
*
287
340.1
227.5
112.5
*
*
*
3
*
*
*
*
-17.6
-27.3
ers where one sentencing type is an immediate custodial sentence in England and Wales by gender, 2005 1 to 2008
Males
2007
2008
2005
3,986
36.3%
23.8%
12.5
5,264
37.4%
23.1%
14.3
166
29.5%
15.1%
14.5
2,002
26.3%
24.8%
1.5
2,549
25.2%
24.9%
0.3
22
*
*
*
463
15.1%
20.5%
-5.4
617
19.3%
21.9%
-2.6
330
15.5%
18.5%
-3.0
428
23.8%
21.3%
2.6
10
Females
2006
218
30.7%
20.6%
10.1
287
46.3%
23.3%
23.0
85
28.2%
24.7%
3.5
108
20.4%
23.1%
-2.8
*
*
*
*
*
*
9
*
*
*
2007
*
*
*
3
*
*
*
*
*
*
2007
2008
receiving immediate custody (less than 12 months)
13,165
17,274
1,533
1,972
14,698
19,248
2005
2006
2007
Offenders receiving community orders
19,664
44,304
48,447
3,384
7,756
8,705
23,067
52,118
57,220
17,274
1,972
19,248
4,333
354
4,690
3,720
238
3,959
ho have received an immediate custodial sentence of 12 months or less or a community order, 2005 1 to 2008
One-year re-offending rate
Community orders
Difference
(percentage points)
Frequency of re-offending
Immediate custody
(less than 12
Community orders
months)
Difference
49.1%
48.9%
51.6%
7.2
7.0
9.8
259.2
256.4
299.6
182.9
181.3
206.5
76.3
75.1
93.1
50.4%
48.8%
56.3%
54.4%
46.7%
30.6%
11.2%
3.5
5.2
5.9
9.5
10.3
13.9
15.3
215.1
241.7
315.2
315.6
267.8
193.7
92.8
172.7
178.2
229.2
212.2
166.0
105.3
34.1
42.4
63.5
86.1
103.3
101.8
88.5
58.6
75.2%
33.9%
24.0%
57.0%
27.7%
13.3%
9.2
9.6
3.4
11.0
0.5
-1.8
486.3
134.7
70.9
277.6
72.8
29.1
343.1
85.9
54.7
193.0
62.3
24.0
143.2
48.8
16.2
84.6
10.4
5.1
9.4%
18.7%
30.3%
39.0%
48.9%
67.1%
1.5
0.0
3.9
7.1
6.2
10.2
21.0
45.7
97.0
153.5
202.4
405.7
17.0
38.6
68.6
112.7
150.2
282.6
4.0
7.2
28.3
40.7
52.2
123.2
ho have received an immediate custodial sentence of 12 months or less or a suspended sentence order, 2005 1 to 2008
One-year re-offending rate
Frequency of re-offending
Suspended
sentence orders
Difference
(percentage points)
Immediate custody
(less than 12
months)
Suspended
sentence orders
Difference
38.1%
38.2%
36.0%
6.8
6.8
6.0
180.3
178.9
208.4
119.2
118.8
126.7
61.1
60.1
81.7
40.6%
37.0%
44.0%
42.4%
33.6%
22.8%
*
5.4
6.5
6.8
7.2
11.0
6.4
*
154.4
169.3
232.7
222.2
178.9
125.8
92.9
112.4
110.0
155.6
148.9
117.3
55.7
20.4
41.9
59.3
77.2
73.3
61.6
70.1
72.4
33.6%
23.9%
77.2%
26.7%
56.1%
8.5%
9.7
4.9
9.8
2.5
9.8
2.1
129.0
73.5
512.9
66.0
272.7
24.6
77.9
48.1
344.4
60.4
181.6
14.8
51.1
25.4
168.5
5.6
91.0
9.9
7.2%
16.2%
25.1%
34.2%
40.8%
63.9%
2.4
1.2
6.3
6.5
8.7
10.2
18.7
32.8
74.8
108.4
147.5
378.1
11.9
25.1
50.4
78.5
99.4
245.3
6.9
7.7
24.3
30.0
48.2
132.8
ho have received an immediate custodial sentence of 12 months or an immediate custodial sentence of more than one year but
One-year re-offending rate
Immediate custody
(less than 12
months)
Frequency of re-offending
Difference
(percentage points)
Immediate custody
(more than 1 year
but less than 2)
Immediate custody
(less than 12
months)
Difference
41.0%
41.3%
*
-6.0
-6.0
*
100.8
101.4
65.6
140.2
141.1
87.5
-39.4
-39.7
-21.9
44.8%
37.8%
43.0%
38.4%
38.2%
-3.0
-7.0
-10.7
-5.1
-5.5
111.0
86.1
103.4
102.9
135.5
139.8
124.8
160.4
140.6
190.0
-28.8
-38.7
-57.0
-37.7
-54.5
24.5%
*
*
*
43.4
*
92.5
*
-49.1
*
35.8%
71.3%
19.0%
34.7%
43.4%
21.7%
-9.4
-10.4
0.4
-2.6
-1.8
-3.3
60.2
197.3
34.9
71.5
145.1
35.0
93.8
304.5
39.1
90.5
134.5
41.7
-33.6
-107.2
-4.2
-19.0
10.6
-6.7
7.5%
19.9%
31.7%
39.9%
50.6%
70.4%
1.0
-3.5
-5.2
-7.0
-7.0
-10.2
14.6
24.7
57.4
68.4
136.6
207.3
16.3
38.0
72.1
99.6
137.8
306.7
-1.7
-13.2
-14.8
-31.1
-1.2
-99.4
ho have received an immediate custodial sentence of more than one year but less than two years or an immediate custodial sen
One-year re-offending rate
Immediate custody
(more than 1 year
but less than 2)
Frequency of re-offending
Difference
(percentage points)
Difference
37.5%
38.1%
*
-4.7
-4.8
*
94.0
95.2
*
107.8
109.4
*
-13.8
-14.2
*
38.0%
36.7%
35.7%
44.4%
39.3%
31.6%
*
-4.3
-4.7
-2.6
-9.0
-1.6
*
*
84.4
94.9
107.7
112.0
121.3
55.3
*
100.9
96.3
122.6
144.4
144.3
92.1
*
-16.5
-1.4
-14.9
-32.3
-23.0
-36.8
*
39.3%
20.9%
61.9%
21.1%
*
*
-4.9
1.0
-8.6
-4.4
*
*
86.1
61.3
172.8
34.4
*
*
105.1
42.7
211.7
51.1
51.7
*
-19.0
18.6
-38.9
-16.7
*
*
9.4%
-2.9
18.7
14.6
4.1
14.2%
27.0%
28.2%
47.4%
60.6%
0.9
-1.9
0.6
-13.9
-8.1
30.8
53.6
90.2
92.0
162.0
24.2
53.2
63.2
129.9
202.5
6.6
0.4
27.0
-38.0
-40.5
gnificant offender and offence characteristics that affect offenders receiving a custodial sentencing outcome, 2008
P-Value
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
Coefficient
-0.324
-0.089
-0.016
-0.048
0.022
-0.146
0.047
0.625
-0.063
-0.423
0.032
-0.807
SE
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.588
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.107
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.338
0.034
-0.728
-0.791
0.404
-0.186
-0.472
0.043
-0.422
-1.230
-0.309
-0.322
-0.242
0.029
-0.315
0.846
0.310
-0.583
reference category
0.091
0.034
0.079
0.087
0.046
0.043
0.024
0.057
0.040
0.053
0.053
0.069
0.028
0.037
0.052
0.072
0.042
0.042
< 0.001
0.322
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.452
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.436
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.154
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.021
-0.578
-0.349
-0.185
-1.717
reference category
0.064
0.085
0.067
0.071
0.132
0.737
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.009
< 0.001
0.025
0.015
0.007
0.018
0.006
0.034
0.006
0.044
0.007
0.022
0.004
0.022
P-Value
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.026
0.008
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
-0.864
0.436
0.112
0.068
< 0.001
< 0.001
All offenders
2008
2005
2006
2007
2008
372
65.6%
57.3%
8.3
2,557
50.4%
44.0%
6.4
3,836
54.5%
48.6%
5.9
4,273
57.2%
50.0%
7.2
5,636
59.4%
51.1%
8.3
118
43.2%
34.7%
8.5
365
34.5%
30.7%
3.8
1,680
42.6%
38.0%
4.5
2,110
45.3%
38.7%
6.6
2,667
47.4%
38.6%
8.8
15
*
*
*
497
30.2%
40.4%
-10.3
433
32.8%
35.3%
-2.5
466
35.4%
42.1%
-6.7
632
40.0%
44.5%
-4.4
369
387
333
429
31.7%
31.0%
32.7%
35.7%
*
*
34.4%
-2.7
35.7%
-4.7
36.3%
-3.6
42.9%
-7.2
365
127.7
97.3
30.4
1,680
173.8
113.9
59.9
2,110
183.0
122.4
60.6
2,667
189.5
122.9
66.5
497
91.1
135.2
-44.1
433
100.7
119.6
-18.9
466
101.7
148.5
-46.8
632
107.8
152.2
-44.5
369
92.4
86.2
387
91.2
105.9
333
81.7
99.1
429
107.5
134.7
6.2
-14.7
-17.4
-27.3
2008
372
43.0%
25.8%
17.2
118
23.7%
20.3%
3.4
365
17.5%
19.7%
-2.2
1,680
24.2%
23.2%
1.0
2,110
26.0%
24.7%
1.3
2,667
25.1%
24.7%
0.4
15
*
*
*
497
13.5%
18.5%
-5.0
433
14.1%
17.8%
-3.7
466
15.0%
20.6%
-5.6
632
19.0%
21.5%
-2.5
*
*
*
369
16.3%
14.9%
1.4
387
17.3%
17.8%
-0.5
333
15.3%
18.3%
-3.0
429
23.8%
21.2%
2.6
52,020
9,588
61,669
15,664
2,541
18,222
2008
mmunity orders
22.9%
22.9%
22.3%
13.1
12.8
16.9
30.9%
32.2%
42.2%
44.6%
37.1%
29.0%
16.5%
22.1%
21.9%
28.9%
26.5%
21.3%
12.2%
*
8.8
10.3
13.3
18.1
15.8
16.9
*
64.2%
22.5%
8.9%
42.0%
7.9%
3.3%
42.4%
11.1%
6.0%
27.5%
6.2%
*
21.8
11.5
2.9
14.5
1.6
*
3.1%
5.2%
13.3%
23.0%
31.4%
55.5%
1.1%
3.6%
7.4%
12.7%
17.7%
36.5%
1.9
1.6
5.9
10.2
13.7
19.0
Immediate custody
(less than 12
months)
Suspended
sentence orders
Difference
(percentage points)
24.7%
24.8%
23.1%
24.1%
24.2%
21.6%
0.7
0.6
1.5
21.9%
22.2%
31.3%
30.3%
28.3%
16.4%
*
22.5%
21.1%
30.6%
31.7%
23.8%
14.1%
*
-0.6
1.1
0.7
-1.4
4.5
2.3
*
21.1%
10.5%
65.0%
7.6%
39.3%
*
20.4%
10.5%
63.2%
10.9%
35.7%
*
0.7
0.0
1.8
-3.3
3.5
*
1.7%
2.9%
10.8%
16.9%
25.4%
50.4%
1.7%
5.2%
10.1%
18.3%
24.1%
47.8%
0.0
-2.2
0.7
-1.5
1.3
2.6
sentence of more than one year but less than two years, 2005 to 2008
Number of matched pairs of offenders and different measures of re-offending
Re-offending custody rates
Immediate custody
(more than 1 year
but less than 2)
Immediate custody
(less than 12
months)
Difference
(percentage points)
15.7%
15.9%
*
19.8%
20.0%
*
-4.1
-4.1
*
15.2%
14.8%
19.5%
15.2%
16.4%
21.8%
16.4%
20.7%
18.8%
23.6%
-6.6
-1.6
-1.2
-3.6
-7.3
*
*
*
*
*
*
10.2%
34.6%
4.9%
8.8%
19.5%
*
12.2%
47.3%
*
11.3%
18.6%
*
-2.0
-12.8
*
-2.6
0.9
*
*
*
8.3%
9.2%
18.6%
35.6%
*
*
7.6%
13.6%
25.6%
44.4%
*
*
0.7
-4.4
-7.0
-8.8
years or an immediate custodial sentence of more than two years but less than 4 years, 2005 to 2008
Number of matched pairs of offenders and different measures of re-offending
Re-offending custody rates
Immediate custody Immediate custody
(2 years or more but (more than 1 year
less than 4 years)
but less than 2)
Difference
(percentage points)
18.4%
18.7%
*
18.2%
18.5%
*
0.3
0.2
*
17.4%
17.2%
19.6%
24.1%
26.2%
*
*
18.5%
16.2%
18.3%
25.6%
21.3%
*
*
-1.1
1.0
1.3
-1.5
4.9
*
*
16.7%
11.2%
35.2%
*
*
*
17.6%
6.9%
37.9%
*
*
*
-0.9
4.3
-2.6
*
*
*
6.2%
11.2%
16.1%
19.7%
31.5%
*
7.1%
10.3%
21.9%
35.5%
*
4.1
5.7
-2.2
-3.9
SE
0.048
0.022
0.010
0.027
0.007
0.048
0.009
0.054
0.006
0.037
0.007
0.028
P-Value
< 0.001
0.171
0.159
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.058
0.006
0.158
< 0.001
0.136
< 0.001
2.582
0.218
0.265
1.145
1.838
0.054
-1.313
0.169
-0.214
-3.506
-0.094
-1.151
-0.790
-3.070
-0.383
1.649
0.711
-0.598
reference category
0.083
0.050
0.092
0.088
0.048
0.058
0.049
0.081
0.063
0.269
0.076
0.141
0.052
0.216
0.085
0.083
0.055
0.072
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.004
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.353
< 0.001
0.037
0.001
< 0.001
0.217
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
-0.065
-0.517
-0.325
-0.108
-1.500
reference category
0.098
0.138
0.104
0.110
0.215
0.510
< 0.001
0.002
0.325
< 0.001
-1.552
-1.424
0.236
0.110
< 0.001
< 0.001
37,983
57.7%
52.1%
5.6
Additional
randomly
generated factor
37,960
57.5%
53.1%
4.4
27,663
52.4%
43.8%
8.6
27,500
50.8%
44.8%
6.0
915
43.0%
41.6%
1.3
9,285
39.4%
50.0%
-10.6
9,276
39.7%
47.1%
-7.4
32
*
*
*
.
.
.
.
.
.
matched offenders
High/low
probability courts
1,431
46.8%
43.7%
3.1
er of matched pairs
offending
offending
offending
offending
Table 1: Proven re-offending rates of matched pairs of offenders for sentences other than custodial in En
England and Wales
Males
2005
2006
Matched pairs
Fines
Conditional discharges
Difference (percentage points)
18,587
37.9%
36.0%
1.9
17,059
39.2%
35.6%
3.6
Matched pairs
Community orders
Conditional discharges
Difference (percentage points)
6,638
37.2%
33.8%
3.5
10,915
37.6%
32.4%
5.2
Matched pairs
Community orders
Fines
Difference (percentage points)
9,395
30.2%
29.0%
1.3
15,115
31.0%
29.9%
1.1
Matched pairs
Suspended sentence orders
Community orders
Difference (percentage points)
568
25.9%
27.8%
-1.9
4,418
28.5%
30.7%
-2.2
Community orders and suspended sentence orders were introduced in the Criminal Justice Act 2003 and came into force from April 2005.
Table 2: Frequency of proven re-offending rates of matched pairs of offenders for sentences other than c
England and Wales
Males
2005
2006
Matched pairs
Fines
Conditional discharges
Difference in re-offences per 100 matched offenders
18,587
131.6
118.0
13.6
17,059
133.0
113.4
19.7
Matched pairs
Community orders
Conditional discharges
Difference in re-offences per 100 matched offenders
6,638
123.6
111.2
12.4
10,915
119.3
102.7
16.6
Matched pairs
Community orders
Fines
Difference in re-offences per 100 matched offenders
9,395
98.9
97.1
1.8
15,115
93.8
95.8
-2.0
568
4,418
Matched pairs
80.3
71.3
9.0
81.0
89.9
-8.9
Community orders and suspended sentence orders were introduced in the Criminal Justice Act 2003 and came into force from April 2005.
Italics means less than or equal to 50 offenders - treat the data with caution.
Table 3: Proven re-offending custody rates of matched pairs of offenders for sentences other than custod
England and Wales
Males
2005
2006
Matched pairs
Fines
Conditional discharges
Difference (percentage points)
18,587
11.5%
10.5%
1.0
17,059
12.2%
10.6%
1.6
Matched pairs
Community orders
Conditional discharges
Difference (percentage points)
6,638
14.4%
10.7%
3.7
10,915
14.2%
10.6%
3.6
Matched pairs
Community orders
Fines
Difference (percentage points)
9,395
11.1%
8.9%
2.2
15,115
10.7%
9.1%
1.7
Matched pairs
Suspended sentence orders
Community orders
Difference (percentage points)
568
16.0%
7.9%
8.1
4,418
16.0%
11.3%
4.7
Community orders and suspended sentence orders were introduced in the Criminal Justice Act 2003 and came into force from April 2005.
Italics means less than or equal to 50 offenders - treat the data with caution.
*
Data based on 10 or fewer offenders are removed as they make the data unreliable for interpretation.
Table C1: Number of offenders in original datasets and number of matched pairs, 2005 1 to 2008
England and Wales
2005
Males
Females
All offenders2
108,067
15,920
124,387
2006
Offenders receiving fines
104,553
15,283
120,222
Males
Females
All offenders2
19,664
3,384
23,067
Males
Females
All offenders2
Males
Females
All offenders2
19,664
3,384
23,067
Community orders and suspended sentence orders were introduced in the Criminal Justice Act 2003 and came into force from April 2005.
Table C2: Re-offending comparisons of matched pairs of offenders who have received a fine or condition
England and Wales
One-year re-offending rate
Number of matched
pairs of offenders
Fines
All offenders1
Males
Females
80,431
70,583
9,762
38.7%
39.8%
30.9%
Age
18 - 20
21 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 49
50 and over
20,352
17,556
13,290
9,617
8,475
8,795
2,346
44.1%
37.9%
39.3%
39.9%
36.4%
32.4%
21.1%
15,813
11,406
10,129
10,077
6,310
4,384
60.3%
38.4%
41.5%
18.1%
50.7%
38.8%
12,152
16,656
17,905
8,785
5,467
19,466
10.9%
26.4%
35.8%
43.7%
50.0%
63.7%
Table C3: Re-offending comparisons of matched pairs of offenders who have received a community orde
England and Wales
One-year re-offending rate
Number of matched
pairs of offenders
Community orders
All offenders2
Males
Females
48,192
40,647
7,524
37.6%
38.9%
31.0%
Age
18 - 20
21 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 49
50 and over
11,634
9,591
8,189
6,070
5,499
5,778
1,431
43.7%
38.9%
41.9%
40.1%
34.1%
23.8%
14.0%
15,091
11,044
4,067
3,086
1,838
1,255
21.6%
66.8%
46.9%
27.1%
41.5%
12.5%
7,736
9,198
10,321
5,423
3,362
12,152
9.5%
21.6%
33.5%
44.0%
49.4%
65.1%
1
2
Community orders and suspended sentence orders were introduced in the Criminal Justice Act 2003 and came into force from April 2005.
Includes offenders with no recorded gender.
Italics means less than or equal to 50 offenders - treat the data with caution.
Table C4: Re-offending comparisons of matched pairs of offenders who have received a community orde
England and Wales
One-year re-offending rate
Number of matched
pairs of offenders
All offenders2
Males
65,930
57,554
Community orders
30.8%
32.1%
Females
8,353
22.5%
Age
18 - 20
21 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 49
50 and over
12,353
12,476
11,185
8,420
7,754
9,858
3,884
43.3%
35.6%
33.9%
31.4%
26.6%
17.6%
8.3%
19,961
10,868
10,229
4,020
3,811
1,721
10.9%
22.9%
67.5%
29.9%
46.9%
41.6%
14,512
13,615
13,774
7,107
4,193
12,729
7.8%
17.3%
29.6%
39.8%
47.2%
62.5%
1
2
Community orders and suspended sentence orders were introduced in the Criminal Justice Act 2003 and came into force from April 2005.
Includes offenders with no recorded gender.
Italics means less than or equal to 50 offenders - treat the data with caution.
Table C5: Re-offending comparisons of matched pairs of offenders who have received a suspended sent
England and Wales
One-year re-offending rate
Number of matched
pairs of offenders
All offenders2
Males
Females
Age
18 - 20
21 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 49
50 and over
Suspended
sentence orders
19,140
17,342
1,794
28.5%
29.4%
19.4%
4,528
4,283
3,245
2,148
1,961
2,363
612
34.9%
29.6%
32.6%
29.8%
23.9%
16.5%
7.4%
4,159
3,951
2,101
1,608
1,534
1,184
28.3%
19.5%
9.2%
21.8%
74.1%
47.8%
3,448
3,820
4,074
2,307
1,400
4,091
7.0%
14.5%
23.2%
33.2%
42.5%
57.4%
1
2
3
Community orders and suspended sentence orders were introduced in the Criminal Justice Act 2003 and came into force from April 2005.
Includes offenders with no recorded gender.
Refers to burglary both in a dwelling and not in a dwelling.
Italics means less than or equal to 50 offenders - treat the data with caution.
Table D1: Logistic regression model output showing the statistically significant offender and offence char
Conditional discharges (1) compared with fines (0)
Offender characteristics
Male
Age
Age (Squared)
Age of First Offence
Age of First Offence (Squared)
Number of previous offences
Number of previous offences (Squared)
Number of previous convictions
Number of previous convictions (Squared)
Number of previous custodial sentences
Number of previous custodial sentences (squared)
Copas rate
Offence Category
Violence
Robbery
Public order or riot
Sexual
Sexual (child)
Domestic burglary
Other burglary
Theft
Handling
Fraud and forgery
Absconding or bail offences
Taking and driving away and related offences
Theft from vehicles
Coefficient
-0.647
0.057
0.020
.
.
0.165
-0.008
0.040
-0.003
-0.046
.
-0.190
0.083
-0.677
-0.328
0.938
0.765
0.376
0.190
0.111
-0.141
-1.768
-0.665
0.355
SE
0.015
0.008
0.005
.
.
0.022
0.003
0.025
0.002
0.010
.
0.013
reference category
0.637
0.018
0.085
0.350
0.159
0.069
0.019
0.056
0.034
0.034
0.073
0.073
-2.827
-4.965
0.371
-0.780
-0.865
-0.794
0.247
0.137
0.124
0.043
0.252
0.236
0.351
0.035
0.050
0.022
0.077
0.021
0.026
reference category
0.033
0.053
0.038
0.042
0.096
0.077
0.037
ntences other than custodial in England and Wales by gender, 2005 1 to 2008
Males
Females
2007
2008
2005
2006
2007
17,187
40.6%
36.3%
4.4
17,750
41.6%
37.8%
3.7
2,592
30.4%
28.0%
2.3
2,271
30.7%
24.7%
6.0
2,392
30.0%
26.2%
3.8
11,629
38.9%
33.9%
5.0
11,465
41.0%
35.4%
5.7
1,044
35.5%
30.7%
4.9
1,918
28.8%
25.5%
3.3
2,265
28.6%
23.8%
4.8
16,084
32.1%
31.1%
1.0
16,960
34.0%
32.2%
1.8
1,309
25.8%
22.8%
3.0
2,120
20.3%
19.6%
0.8
2,371
21.9%
20.5%
1.4
5,949
29.3%
31.2%
-1.9
6,407
30.5%
33.3%
-2.7
54
*
*
*
429
21.9%
20.3%
1.6
632
18.2%
22.3%
-4.1
fenders for sentences other than custodial in England and Wales by gender, 2005 1 to 2008
Males
Females
2007
2008
2005
2006
2007
17,187
139.6
115.8
23.8
17,750
146.3
121.8
24.5
2,592
102.0
91.1
10.9
2,271
97.3
75.3
22.0
2,392
102.4
77.4
25.0
11,629
123.8
110.7
13.1
11,465
139.0
112.6
26.5
1,044
113.0
99.1
13.9
1,918
83.2
79.5
3.8
2,265
97.7
70.9
26.8
16,084
99.7
103.8
-4.0
16,960
109.0
106.2
2.8
1,309
76.3
79.6
-3.3
2,120
57.6
63.1
-5.4
2,371
68.3
65.9
2.4
5,949
6,407
54
429
632
80.1
90.0
-9.9
83.9
95.7
-11.8
61.1
55.6
5.6
59.4
56.9
2.6
59.3
78.6
-19.3
ers for sentences other than custodial in England and Wales by gender, 2005 1 to 2008
Males
Females
2007
2008
2005
2006
2007
17,187
12.7%
10.7%
2.0
17,750
13.2%
11.4%
1.8
2,592
6.6%
5.2%
1.4
2,271
6.4%
4.4%
1.9
2,392
5.7%
4.7%
1.0
11,629
14.9%
11.2%
3.7
11,465
15.6%
11.4%
4.3
1,044
9.6%
6.4%
3.2
1,918
7.6%
5.9%
1.7
2,265
7.9%
4.7%
3.3
16,084
11.2%
9.8%
1.5
16,960
12.2%
10.2%
2.0
1,309
5.9%
5.2%
0.7
2,120
4.8%
4.7%
0.1
2,371
5.3%
4.0%
1.3
5,949
16.3%
11.1%
5.2
6,407
17.4%
11.5%
5.9
54
*
*
*
429
11.0%
6.5%
4.4
632
10.8%
5.9%
4.9
2007
Offenders receiving fines
104,695
16,171
121,238
2008
2005
105,898
16,471
122,822
2006
2007
Offenders receiving conditional discharges
41,905
40,031
41,218
11,711
10,913
11,377
53,848
51,151
52,790
52,020
9,588
61,669
52,020
9,588
61,669
108,067
15,920
124,387
15,664
2,541
18,222
19,664
3,384
23,067
Frequency of re-offending
Difference
(percentage points)
Conditional
discharges
Fines
Difference
35.2%
36.4%
26.7%
3.5
3.4
4.2
133.0
137.6
101.0
112.8
117.3
81.4
20.2
20.3
19.5
40.4%
35.2%
35.7%
37.5%
32.0%
27.8%
17.6%
3.7
2.7
3.6
2.4
4.4
4.6
3.5
136.4
117.6
144.3
151.4
132.0
131.1
89.9
121.1
108.9
120.3
127.4
105.0
96.0
60.4
15.3
8.7
24.1
24.0
27.0
35.2
29.5
54.1%
34.9%
36.7%
17.3%
47.4%
36.4%
6.2
3.5
4.8
0.9
3.2
2.5
266.5
104.1
143.4
36.9
201.5
102.3
212.5
93.3
112.8
34.9
180.2
94.7
53.9
10.8
30.6
2.1
21.3
7.6
9.7%
24.2%
32.8%
40.0%
44.2%
58.0%
1.1
2.1
3.0
3.8
5.8
5.7
23.1
62.3
95.8
130.7
163.8
288.7
20.1
56.5
85.6
115.1
139.2
235.5
2.9
5.8
10.2
15.6
24.6
53.2
Frequency of re-offending
Difference
(percentage points)
Community orders
Conditional
discharges
Difference
32.7%
33.9%
26.4%
4.9
5.0
4.7
122.8
126.9
101.5
104.7
109.2
81.1
18.1
17.7
20.4
38.4%
34.5%
36.8%
34.9%
28.1%
20.0%
11.2%
5.3
4.4
5.1
5.2
6.1
3.9
2.8
137.4
125.9
148.6
140.9
107.9
69.9
31.2
115.3
111.1
132.8
116.9
87.3
56.6
25.5
22.1
14.7
15.8
24.0
20.7
13.3
5.7
18.4%
58.6%
41.1%
23.6%
37.6%
12.7%
3.2
8.2
5.9
3.5
3.9
-0.2
46.3
280.8
140.9
62.0
125.0
24.5
39.2
238.8
119.4
56.2
115.8
23.2
7.1
42.1
21.6
5.8
9.2
1.4
6.9%
18.9%
29.8%
37.1%
42.2%
57.6%
2.7
2.7
3.7
6.9
7.2
7.6
17.9
46.4
87.0
128.5
156.0
266.3
12.9
38.8
77.1
105.3
127.9
229.9
5.0
7.6
10.0
23.2
28.1
36.4
Frequency of re-offending
Difference
(percentage points)
Fines
29.6%
30.8%
1.3
1.3
Community orders
96.6
100.8
Fines
Difference
97.2
101.3
-0.5
-0.5
21.4%
1.1
68.2
68.9
-0.7
42.1%
33.9%
32.2%
30.8%
25.1%
16.9%
6.7%
1.2
1.6
1.7
0.6
1.5
0.8
1.6
134.2
108.8
112.7
105.0
81.7
50.5
20.2
130.1
107.1
113.0
113.4
82.0
55.1
16.6
4.1
1.7
-0.3
-8.4
-0.3
-4.5
3.7
11.0%
20.3%
65.5%
29.0%
45.6%
44.0%
-0.1
2.6
2.0
0.8
1.4
-2.4
23.1
49.2
282.5
68.2
139.8
124.4
24.6
42.9
298.1
66.8
131.7
133.6
-1.5
6.3
-15.5
1.4
8.1
-9.2
6.6%
16.9%
28.4%
38.1%
43.6%
61.2%
1.2
0.4
1.2
1.7
3.6
1.3
15.4
36.5
74.2
113.5
145.0
252.5
13.1
36.4
72.6
109.8
134.4
265.3
2.3
0.1
1.6
3.7
10.6
-12.8
Frequency of re-offending
Difference
(percentage points)
Suspended
sentence orders
Community orders
Difference
30.7%
31.7%
21.3%
-2.3
-2.3
-2.0
79.9
81.7
61.9
89.6
91.5
71.7
-9.7
-9.7
-9.8
38.6%
33.4%
34.6%
31.1%
24.5%
16.5%
6.9%
-3.7
-3.8
-2.0
-1.3
-0.7
0.0
0.5
93.2
79.4
99.4
92.1
68.0
43.4
17.5
107.7
93.8
111.0
96.1
74.5
43.7
15.5
-14.4
-14.5
-11.6
-4.1
-6.5
-0.3
2.0
29.6%
21.5%
12.8%
22.9%
74.1%
51.2%
-1.3
-2.0
-3.5
-1.1
-0.1
-3.4
63.8
38.1
19.8
45.1
322.6
136.8
72.8
45.5
26.7
49.9
337.7
166.8
-9.0
-7.4
-6.9
-4.8
-15.2
-30.0
8.5%
16.9%
26.8%
36.5%
42.4%
59.0%
-1.5
-2.5
-3.6
-3.3
0.1
-1.6
11.5
26.3
49.4
80.0
111.0
207.2
14.2
31.6
60.1
96.4
120.1
222.3
-2.7
-5.4
-10.7
-16.5
-9.1
-15.1
nificant offender and offence characteristics that affect offenders receiving a sentencing outcome other than custody
P-Value
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
.
.
< 0.001
0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
.
< 0.001
Coefficient
-0.389
0.095
0.057
.
.
0.094
-0.007
0.100
0.005
0.013
-0.004
-0.316
0.897
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.007
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.046
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
-2.439
1.599
-0.343
-2.245
-1.524
-0.503
0.840
0.226
0.220
0.413
-0.969
0.264
SE
0.014
0.008
0.005
.
.
0.026
0.004
0.029
0.003
0.014
0.002
0.014
reference category
0.453
0.019
0.075
0.181
0.095
0.049
0.017
0.045
0.030
0.036
0.063
0.057
P-Value
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
.
.
< 0.001
0.054
< 0.001
0.157
0.350
0.009
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
-0.889
-2.376
1.643
-0.571
1.116
0.990
< 0.001
0.010
0.001
0.304
0.008
0.002
< 0.001
-0.154
-0.024
-0.159
-0.314
0.148
0.026
-0.641
0.036
0.051
0.021
0.069
0.022
0.029
reference category
0.037
0.057
0.041
0.046
0.105
0.082
0.040
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.672
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.158
0.748
< 0.001
Number of matc
All offenders
2008
2005
2006
2007
2008
2,507
32.5%
27.7%
4.8
21,197
37.0%
35.0%
2.0
19,356
38.2%
34.3%
3.9
19,603
39.3%
35.0%
4.3
20,275
40.4%
36.5%
3.9
2,297
33.3%
27.7%
5.5
7,685
37.0%
33.3%
3.7
12,838
36.2%
31.3%
4.9
13,904
37.2%
32.3%
4.9
13,765
39.7%
34.1%
5.6
2,553
23.2%
23.0%
0.2
10,709
29.7%
28.2%
1.5
17,241
29.7%
28.6%
1.1
18,463
30.8%
29.7%
1.1
19,517
32.6%
31.0%
1.6
679
19.1%
21.4%
-2.2
622
25.1%
27.0%
-1.9
4,848
27.9%
29.8%
-1.9
6,583
28.2%
30.3%
-2.1
7,087
29.4%
32.1%
-2.7
Number of matched pairs of offenders and number of offences per 100 matched offenders
All offenders2
2008
2005
2006
2007
2008
2,507
21,197
19,356
19,603
20,275
101.8
127.9
128.7
134.8
140.7
80.9
114.6
108.8
110.9
116.7
20.9
13.3
19.9
23.9
24.0
2,297
115.2
84.4
30.8
7,685
122.2
109.5
12.6
12,838
113.9
99.2
14.7
13,904
119.4
104.1
15.3
13,765
135.0
107.8
27.2
2,553
72.8
71.1
1.7
10,709
96.1
94.9
1.2
17,241
89.4
91.8
-2.4
18,463
95.7
98.9
-3.2
19,517
104.2
101.6
2.7
679
622
4,848
6,583
7,087
66.0
75.8
-9.9
2008
2,507
6.6%
5.0%
1.6
78.6
69.9
8.7
79.1
86.9
-7.8
78.1
88.9
-10.8
82.2
93.8
-11.6
2,297
9.2%
5.6%
3.6
7,685
13.7%
10.1%
3.6
12,838
13.2%
9.9%
3.3
13,904
13.7%
10.1%
3.6
13,765
14.6%
10.4%
4.2
2,553
5.4%
4.7%
0.7
10,709
10.4%
8.4%
2.0
17,241
10.0%
8.5%
1.5
18,463
10.5%
9.0%
1.5
19,517
11.3%
9.5%
1.8
679
9.6%
7.1%
2.5
622
15.8%
7.7%
8.0
4,848
15.6%
10.9%
4.7
6,583
15.8%
10.6%
5.2
7,087
16.6%
11.1%
5.5
2008
2005
al discharges
39,584
10,991
50,747
al discharges
39,584
10,991
50,747
11,465
2,297
13,765
ines
16,960
2,553
19,517
6,407
679
7,087
105,898
16,471
122,822
nity orders
52,020
9,588
61,669
9,395
1,309
10,709
Fines
Difference
(percentage points)
11.7%
12.4%
6.3%
10.1%
10.8%
4.8%
1.6
1.6
1.5
11.4%
10.6%
14.2%
14.2%
11.4%
9.5%
5.3%
11.0%
10.2%
11.1%
12.1%
8.9%
7.0%
3.2%
0.5
0.4
3.2
2.1
2.5
2.5
2.2
26.2%
9.5%
12.1%
2.5%
13.4%
9.1%
20.6%
9.0%
10.1%
2.4%
11.9%
8.7%
5.6
0.5
2.0
0.0
1.5
0.4
1.1%
3.5%
6.5%
10.4%
15.7%
29.5%
1.1%
3.1%
5.7%
9.3%
13.0%
25.2%
0.0
0.3
0.7
1.1
2.7
4.3
Conditional
discharges
Difference
(percentage points)
13.8%
14.8%
8.5%
10.1%
11.0%
5.5%
3.7
3.9
2.9
15.2%
14.1%
17.6%
16.3%
12.3%
6.8%
3.3%
11.1%
10.9%
13.1%
12.0%
8.1%
4.6%
1.9%
4.1
3.2
4.5
4.3
4.2
2.2
1.4
4.8%
32.8%
16.7%
5.0%
13.9%
2.2%
3.0%
24.1%
12.3%
4.5%
11.6%
1.8%
1.7
8.7
4.4
0.5
2.2
0.5
1.1%
3.8%
8.3%
13.3%
18.1%
33.3%
0.8%
2.3%
5.4%
8.8%
12.4%
26.0%
0.3
1.5
2.9
4.5
5.8
7.3
10.6%
11.3%
Difference
(percentage points)
Fines
8.9%
9.6%
1.7
1.8
5.3%
4.6%
0.8
14.9%
12.1%
13.0%
11.5%
9.1%
4.4%
1.4%
12.1%
9.7%
11.0%
11.3%
7.4%
4.1%
0.7%
2.8
2.4
2.1
0.2
1.7
0.3
0.7
1.7%
5.2%
32.8%
6.3%
17.2%
13.4%
1.1%
3.1%
30.6%
5.3%
13.2%
12.4%
0.6
2.1
2.2
1.0
4.0
1.0
0.8%
2.8%
7.0%
12.0%
17.0%
31.1%
0.5%
1.9%
4.8%
9.3%
13.9%
28.7%
0.3
0.9
2.2
2.6
3.1
2.4
Community orders
Difference
(percentage points)
16.0%
16.6%
10.4%
10.8%
11.2%
6.5%
5.3
5.4
4.0
17.8%
15.8%
20.1%
18.9%
14.5%
9.0%
4.9%
12.9%
11.2%
14.2%
11.0%
9.2%
4.4%
1.8%
4.9
4.6
5.9
7.9
5.3
4.7
3.1
15.8%
7.6%
4.2%
7.6%
59.1%
28.6%
8.7%
4.3%
1.9%
4.5%
43.0%
24.5%
7.1
3.3
2.4
3.2
16.0
4.1
1.6%
4.9%
10.0%
17.6%
25.1%
40.6%
0.8%
2.5%
6.2%
11.2%
14.0%
30.0%
0.8
2.4
3.8
6.4
11.1
10.6
2.624
-2.345
-0.053
3.259
2.274
0.845
-0.724
-0.133
-0.337
-2.249
0.372
0.040
SE
0.013
0.008
0.005
0.011
0.005
0.017
0.002
0.017
.
0.011
0.001
0.011
reference category
0.454
0.018
0.066
0.305
0.132
0.055
0.017
0.047
0.030
0.026
0.047
0.062
P-Value
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.001
< 0.001
0.006
< 0.001
.
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.420
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.004
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.519
-1.775
-2.501
-1.342
-0.286
-2.069
-1.859
0.407
0.146
0.240
0.314
0.007
0.195
0.937
0.018
0.016
0.022
0.052
0.019
0.026
reference category
0.030
0.046
0.033
0.035
0.083
0.067
0.033
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.002
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.929
0.004
< 0.001
offenders
53,305
39.6%
36.7%
2.9
53,303
39.4%
37.0%
2.4
3,020
35.8%
30.8%
5.0
68,911
35.4%
36.3%
-0.9
68,907
35.5%
36.3%
-0.9
4,065
26.3%
23.7%
2.5
39,209
36.0%
39.2%
-3.2
39,215
36.0%
37.7%
-1.8
1,242
31.4%
32.9%
-1.4
y rates (%)
ched pairs
1.563
-0.168
-0.155
0.465
0.442
-0.406
-0.681
-0.354
0.219
-0.901
-0.525
-0.704
SE
0.018
0.011
0.006
0.014
0.005
0.026
0.004
0.021
.
0.017
0.002
0.014
reference category
0.092
0.026
0.067
0.070
0.038
0.038
0.020
0.046
0.030
0.049
0.045
0.063
P-Value
0.047
0.029
0.079
0.002
0.038
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
.
< 0.001
0.103
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.021
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
-0.064
-0.628
-1.165
0.504
-0.441
0.039
-0.044
0.029
0.076
0.140
0.085
0.067
-0.756
0.024
0.026
0.040
0.044
0.029
0.036
reference category
0.044
0.066
0.048
0.050
0.122
0.093
0.047
0.008
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.286
0.309
0.655
0.111
0.006
0.485
0.472
< 0.001
Table 1: Bands for OASys Violence Predictor (OVP) and OASys General re-offending Predictor (OGP) sc
Band
OVP 2-year
predicted
re-offending rate
Low
Medium
High
Very High
0% 29%
30% 59%
60% 79%
80% 99%
Table 2: Offender groups based on criminal history and OGP and OVP scores
Group label
Percentage of
sample
Description
Sexual
offenders
Low risk
Non-violent
specialists1
Violent
specialists
Versatile
High-risk
versatile
6%
30%
20%
6%
30%
8%2
The term specialists is used here to refer to specialisation in the very broad offence classes covered by OGP and OVP. It is likely that some offenders will
Sexual
6.7%
5.4%
4.5%
3.9%
3.7%
3.3%
3.1%
2.7%
2.6%
2.4%
2.1%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.6%
Burglary
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.5%
1.1%
0.9%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
46 to 48
1.5%
0.0%
0.2%
0.6%
Figure 2: Hazards for six offender groups: violent & sexual re-offending
Months
Sex offenders
(sexual/complian
ce)
1 to 3
4 to 6
7 to 9
10 to 12
13 to 15
16 to 18
19 to 21
22 to 24
25 to 27
28 to 30
31 to 33
34 to 36
37 to 39
40 to 42
43 to 45
46 to 48
5.1%
3.8%
3.1%
2.7%
2.8%
2.0%
2.0%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.1%
0.8%
0.7%
0.9%
1.1%
0.7%
2.0%
1.2%
1.1%
0.9%
1.1%
0.9%
0.8%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
Low risk
2.1%
2.0%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.3%
1.1%
1.0%
1.1%
1.0%
0.9%
1.0%
Nonviolent
specialists
4.2%
4.1%
3.2%
3.0%
2.9%
3.0%
2.8%
2.6%
2.6%
2.2%
2.3%
2.1%
2.4%
1.9%
1.7%
1.7%
Months
1 to 3
4 to 6
7 to 9
10 to 12
13 to 15
16 to 18
19 to 21
22 to 24
25 to 27
28 to 30
31 to 33
34 to 36
37 to 39
40 to 42
43 to 45
46 to 48
Sex offenders
Low risk
8.1%
4.7%
3.9%
3.1%
3.0%
2.4%
2.0%
1.8%
1.4%
1.6%
1.2%
1.0%
0.7%
1.1%
0.5%
0.8%
2.8%
2.5%
2.2%
1.9%
1.8%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.0%
1.1%
Nonviolent
specialists
19.3%
13.3%
10.3%
9.3%
7.7%
6.8%
6.3%
5.4%
5.1%
4.4%
4.5%
4.3%
3.7%
3.5%
3.5%
2.6%
Violent
specialists
3.2%
3.1%
2.9%
2.6%
2.6%
2.2%
2.2%
1.7%
1.9%
2.1%
1.4%
1.3%
1.5%
1.5%
2.2%
0.8%
s likely that some offenders will specialise further within those classes, tending to commit particular crimes such as acquisitive offences, drink driving or criminal damage offe
Drugs
1.8%
1.6%
1.5%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
Violent
specialists
6.5%
5.5%
4.6%
4.4%
4.1%
3.5%
3.5%
3.3%
3.2%
2.6%
2.2%
3.3%
2.3%
3.0%
2.8%
1.8%
Versatile
18.1%
12.7%
10.2%
8.3%
7.4%
6.8%
6.4%
5.9%
5.3%
4.6%
4.1%
4.1%
3.7%
3.3%
2.7%
3.2%
Versatile
10.0%
8.4%
7.7%
6.6%
6.4%
5.9%
5.8%
5.0%
5.0%
4.5%
3.9%
3.5%
3.9%
3.8%
3.0%
3.0%
High-risk
versatile
22.9%
14.7%
12.1%
10.0%
8.9%
8.1%
7.3%
5.9%
6.4%
5.8%
5.5%
3.7%
3.2%
3.2%
4.2%
4.3%
High-risk
versatile
20.3%
15.4%
13.2%
11.6%
10.8%
9.5%
9.4%
8.5%
8.7%
7.5%
7.4%
7.5%
3.9%
4.5%
3.8%
4.1%