Homework 9, Statistics 512, Spring 2005

This homework is due Thursday, March 31st at the beginning of class. 1. Hogg, McKean and Craig, 6.5.3. Note: For this two sample problem, the test statistic 2 log converges in distribution to a chi-squared distribution under the null hypothesis when both sample sizes m and n converge to infinity (where the degrees of freedom equals the number of extra free parameters in the alternative hypothesis compared to the null hypothesis). 2. In a classic genetics study, Geissler (1889) studied hospital records in Saxony and compiled data on the gender ratio. The table below shows the number of male children in 6115 families with 12 children. Let X i denote the number of male children the i th family has. Suppose that the probabilities of a family of 12 children having 0, 1, 2, ..., 12 male children are the same for each family and that the number of male children had by each family is independent. Then we can regard X 1 ,K , X 6115 as 6115 iid multinomial random variables with probabilities p0 = P ( X i = 0),K , p12 = P( X i = 12) . (a) Consider the model that the number of male children born to a family with 12 children is a binomial random variable with p = 0.5 and 12 trials. What multinomial probabilities p0 ,K , p12 are implied by this model? (b) Test the goodness of fit of the model in (a) using a likelihood ratio test, i.e., test the null hypothesis that p0 ,K , p12 equal the values you found in (a) versus the general multinomial alternative hypothesis that p0 ,K , p12 are not equal to the values from (a). (c) Consider the model that the number of male children born to a family with 12 children is a binomial random variable with unknown p and 12 trials. Test the goodness of fit of this model using a likelihood ratio test statistic. Number of Male Frequency Number of Male Frequency Children Children 0 7 7 1033 1 45 8 670 2 181 9 286 3 478 10 104 4 829 11 24 5 1112 12 3 6 1343 3. Hogg, McKean and Craig, 7.2.2. Hint: See Theorem 3.2.1. 4. Suppose X 1 , X 2 , X 3 are iid Bernoulli random variables with success probability p . In class we showed that Y = X 1 + X 2 + X 3 is a sufficient statistic for p . Show that Y ' = X 1 + 2 X 2 + 3 X 3 is not a sufficient statistic for p .