Bo co cp nht

Cng ty C phn Sa Vit Nam (m c phiu VNM - HOSE)

Biu 1: M hnh thu nhp

Biu 1A - Gi
VNM (104.000, 106.000, 104.000, 105.000, +0.00)

205
200
195
190
185
180
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
55000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
x10

Volume (92,170)

August

September

October

November

July10
14h
2008
Ngy 1 thng
nm
2008

December

2008

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

Ngun: HSC
Biu 1B - Thng tin c phiu

Gi

KLCP ang lu hnh

175,275,670

Thng tin c phiu

95,000

KLCP NTNN cn
c php mua

1,895,183

Gi cao nht 52 tun

200,000

Gi thp nht 52 tun

89,000

Thay i gi 52 tun

-49.42%

Gi tr vn ha th
trng (triu ng)

16,651,189

(triu ng)

FY2005A

yoy

Doanh thu thun

LN trc thu
LN sau thu
LN bin trc thu
LN bin sau thu
EPS (VND)
BVPS (VND)
P/E
P/B
ROE
(triu ng)

5,638,784
602,600
605,484
10.7%
10.7%
3,808
14,132
24.9
6.7
29.5%

49.4%
30.6%
31.2%
-12.6%
-12.2%
NA
NA
NA
NA
22.4%

(triu ng)
Doanh thu thun
LN trc thu
LN sau thu
LN bin trc thu
LN bin sau thu
EPS (VND)
BVPS (VND)
P/E
P/B
ROE

Ngun: HSC

2006

2007

Tng ti sn

3,600,533

5,425,117

Vn ch s hu

2,738,383

4,315,937

Doanh thu
Li nhun trc
thu
Li nhun sau thu

6,245,619

6,648,193

662,774

955,381

659,890

963,448

Ngun: Vinamilk
Biu 1D - Cc ch s ti chnh c bn
Ch s

2006

2007

- H s thanh ton hin ti

2.6

3.4

- H s thanh ton nhanh

1.4

1.6

Kh nng thanh khon

Kh nng sinh li
- LN bin gp

26.5% 27.3%

- LN bin rng

10.6% 14.5%

- ROE

26.5% 27.3%

- ROA

17.6% 21.3%

Hiu qu hot ng
- Vng quay khon phi
thu
- Vng quay hng tn kho
- Vng quay tng ti sn
- Vng quay vn CSH

10.3

11.4

4.6

3.7

1.7

1.5

2.6

1.9

Ngun: HSC

Analyst
Trn Hng M
(84 8) 823 3299
my.th@hsc.com.vn

yoy

yoy

FY2007A

FY 2010F

yoy

FY 2011F

FY2008F

yoy

6.4% 8,200,810
44.1% 1,397,508
46.0% 1,201,856
35.4%
17.0%
37.2%
14.7%
34.6%
6,800
43.0%
30,977
-25.7%
14.0
-30.1%
3.1
3.2%
24.7%

yoy

23.4%
46.3%
24.7%
18.6%
1.1%
21.8%
25.8%
-17.9%
-20.5%
-9.7%

FY2012F

yoy

16.0% 10,880,492 14.4% 12,454,260 14.5% 14,113,222

6.4% 1,658,148 11.6% 1,773,961 7.0% 2,007,977
-7.2% 1,243,611 11.6% 1,330,471 7.0% 1,505,983
-8.3%
15.2%
-2.5%
14.2% -6.5%
14.2%
-20.0%
11.4%
-2.5%
10.7% -6.5%
10.7%
-10.9%
6,757 11.6%
7,229 7.0%
8,183
-2.8%
31,120
3.4%
32,418 4.2%
34,283
12.3%
14.1 -10.4%
13.1 -6.5%
11.6
2.9%
3.1
-3.3%
2.9 -4.0%
2.8
-17.6%
22.1%
8.6%
22.8% 3.1%
24.5%

yoy

13.3%
13.2%
13.2%
-0.1%
-0.1%
13.2%
5.8%
-11.7%
-5.4%
7.8%

Vinamilk - Mua vo

Biu 1C - Cc ch tiu chnh

(triu ng)

FY2009F
9,513,814
1,486,309
1,114,732
15.6%
11.7%
6,057
30,103
15.7
3.2
20.3%

FY2006A

6,245,619 10.8% 6,648,193

662,774 10.0%
955,381
659,890
9.0%
963,448
10.6% -0.7%
14.4%
10.6% -1.6%
14.5%
4,150
NA
5,585
17,223
NA
24,624
22.9
NA
17.0
5.5
NA
3.9
26.5% -10.4%
27.3%

VNM khng dnh vo v b bi sa bn ca Trung Quc v cng ty c th

bt ln do hng li t vic ginh thm th phn. Doanh s ngnh sa s
gim trong ngn hn nhng mt khi ngnh sa trong nc chng minh
c s trong sch ca mnh, doanh s s phc hi nhanh chng.

Cho n nay cc kt qu kim nghim s b u cho thy khng c

melamine trong hu ht cc sn phm c sn xut trong nc c
s dng nguyn liu sa, v chng ti tin rng ngnh sa trong nc
khng b dnh dng nhiu. VNM khng nh rng h khng s dng bt k
loi sa nguyn liu no t Trung Quc.

Trn c s chng ti iu chnh cc d bo trc y ca chng ti v

tc tng trng ngnh, t 18.1% xung 17% cho nm nay v t 16.9%

xung 16.8% cho nm ti. Do , chng ti d bo doanh thu ca VNM nm

2008 v 2009 ln lt l 8,200 t ng v 9,513 t ng, gim ln lt 6%

v 4% so vi mc d bo trc y.

Mc d bo v li nhun sau thu nm nay v nm sau ch gim nh so

vi d bo trc, ln lt mc 0.2% v 1%. Do nhng d phng ban

u ca chng ti v EPS gn nh khng thay i.

Do cc t gim gi gn y, gi c phiu VNM tr nn r vi P/E nm

2008 mc 13.9 ln. C phiu ny ang c giao dch mc gi thp
hn 31% mc trung bnh cc cng ty tng ng trong khu vc.

Thi gian gn y nh u t nc ngoi l ngi bn rng c phiu VNM.

p lc bn ny to c hi cho cc nh u t nc ngoi khc mua vo.
Khi lng c phiu m nh u t nc ngoi cn c php mua vo 1
khong 0.9% tng ng 1,600,000 c phiu.

Bo co cp nht
Cng ty C phn Sa Vit Nam (m c phiu VNM - HOSE)
Vinamilk cng b kt qu kim nghim ca 35 mu sa
nguyn liu v thnh phm ca cng ty v kt qu cho
thy tt c cc mu ny u khng b nhim melamine.
Vic kim nghim c thc hin bi Trung Tm Dch V
Phn Tch Th Nghim thuc S Khoa Hc v Cng Ngh
Tp. H Ch Minh.
Kt qu kim nghim ca cc mu cn li vn cha c
nhng chng ti d on cc mu ny cng s m tnh vi
melamine. Vinamilk m bo vi chng ti rng cng ty
khng s dng nguyn liu Trung Quc. Ti H Ni, B Y
T ang tin hnh kim nghim cc mu khc ca Vinamilk
v kt qu s c cng b vo tun ti.

Vinamilk s dng hai ngun nguyn liu chnh, sa b ti

sn xut trong nc v bt sa nhp khu. Xc sut sa
b ti ca Vit Nam nhim melamine l thp do hu ht
cc cng ty ch bin sa khng o lng protein khi kim
tra cht lng sa thu mua, m trn thc t cc cng ty
ny kim tra hm lng cht kh, bo v mt s ch tiu
sinh ha ca sa b ti.
Phng php ny s gip pht hin nhng ngi pha
thm nc vo sa bn c nhiu hn, do khi pha
thm nc th hm lng cht kh v bo cng gim.
V vy nng dn v cc trm thu mua sa khng c ng
c thm melamine vo sa ti.
i vi bt sa, Vinamilk nhp khu trc tip t hai nh
cung cp l Fonterra New Zealand v Hoogwegt H
Lan. Tnh hnh ang kh thun li cho Vinamilk khi hin ti
mt s i th cnh tranh ca h b pht hin s dng
nguyn liu sa Trung Quc, nh Hanoimilk, mt cng
ty nim yt trn sn H Ni v Anco, mt cng ty sa t

July10
14h
2008
Ngy 1 thng
nm
2008

nhn. Hn na cc sn phm ca Dutch Lady v Nestle

Trung Quc b pht hin c melamine v thng
hiu ca cc cng ty ny ang b nh hng quy m
ton cu.
Vinamilk c th tn dng c hi ny y mnh bn
hng. Trong ngn hn chng ti ngh rng doanh thu
s b nh hng, v vy chng ti iu chnh d bo v
tng trng ngnh cho nm 2008 t 18.1% xung 17%.
Chng ti c c con s ny bng cch iu chnh gim
2% i vi tng trng sa nc v 1% i vi tng
trng sa bt.
Chnh sch tht cht tn dng ang tc ng xu n nhiu
cng ty sa cng nh cc ngnh khc nhng dng nh
Vinamilk khng c g phi lo lng. Chi ph li vay 9 thng
u nm d bo ch vo khong 25 t ng do cng ty
vay ngn hng t hn, l do l vn lu ng ang c
qun l tt hn.
Cho n nay th tnh hnh kinh doanh vn kh tt. Trong
8 thng u nm 2008, doanh thu t 5,466 t ng tc
67% k hoch c nm v li nhun sau thu t 932 t
ng tc 82% k hoch c nm. Chng ti tin n cui
nm cng ty s vt k hoch. V ch thp hn mt cht
so vi d bo ban u ca chng ti.
Mc d tng trng ngnh c iu chnh gim cn c
vo mc tng trng thp hn ca sa nc v sa bt,
iu ny cng khng nh hng nhiu n m hnh thu
nhp ca Vinamilk do chng ti lp, do i vi mng sa
chua v kem, Vinamilk c doanh s cao hn chng ti
mong i. Do , tng trng chm li ca sa nc v
sa bt s c b p phn no.

Biu 2: nh gi
Cng ty

Sn giao
dch

Vn ha
(triu USD)

P/E 2008F

P/E 2009F

EPS 2008F
(USD)

EPS 2009F
(USD)

Tng trng
EPS

Dutch Lady (Malaysia) Bhd

Malaysia

203

15.8

13.5

0.2

0.2

12.2%

Nestle (Malaysia) Bhd

Malaysia

1,770

18.9

17.6

0.4

0.4

16.1%

Singapore

3,432

11.1

9.7

0.2

0.3

35.2%

Meiji Dairies Corporation

Nht Bn

1,753

20.0

19.5

0.2

0.3

46.0%

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd

Nht Bn

718

33.0

28.3

0.1

0.1

16.5%

Snow Brand Milk Products

Nht Bn

980

14.3

13.1

0.2

0.2

9.7%

Maeil Dairy Industry

Hn Quc

115

11.3

7.8

0.8

1.1

43.9%

NamYang Dairy Products Co.

Hn Quc

349

6.3

77.2

NA

NA

3,505

30.5

1.2

NA

NA

12,824

20.1

15.1

8.93

0.38

26%

1,002

13.9

0.41

0.37

22.4%

Fraser & Neave

Nestle India Limited

TRUNG BNH
Vinamilk

Vit Nam

2
Ngun: Bloomberg, HSC

Bo co cp nht
Cng ty C phn Sa Vit Nam (m c phiu VNM - HOSE)
Theo m hnh thu nhp c iu chnh ca chng ti,
doanh thu nm 2008 s t 8,200 t ng v li nhun sau
thu nm 2008 s t 1,201 t ng, thp hn mt cht so
vi d bo trc y ca chng ti.
C phiu VNM dao ng kh mnh thi gian qua do p
lc bn t cc nh u t nc ngoi. Chng hn vo
ngy 24/9/2008, Dragon Capital Markets Limited thng
bo bn 105,000 c phiu Vinamilk t ngy 25/9/2008 n
25/12/2008, gim t l nm gi ca h trong Vinamilk xung
0%. Thng bo ny lm th trng xn xao v cc nh
u t c nhiu hnh ng khc nhau i vi c phiu
Vinamilk. Tuy nhin, trn thc t, n ngy 24/9/2008,
nhm cng ty c lin quan n Dragon Capital Markets
Limited vn nm gi 15,599,070 c phiu Vinamilk, tng
ng 8.9%

Thng tin trn c Ban Kim Sot ca Vinamilk xc

nhn cch y t ngy. Hn na mt lng bn ra 105,000
c phiu cng s khng gy ra tc ng ln. Tr li hi
thng 7, Vietnam Dragon Fund Limited, mt qu u t
do Dragon Capital qun l, cng thng bo bn ra
1,150,000 c phiu Vinamilk.

July10
14h
2008
Ngy 1 thng
nm
2008

So snh mc P/E 2008 trung bnh ca cc cng ty trong

danh sch c iu chnh, Vinamilk ang giao dch
mc gi thp hn 31%. Vinamilk cng r hn 12% so vi
top 25 cng ty nim yt (khng tnh VIC do P/E ca cng
ty ny qu cao), xt v P/E nm 2008. Gn y c phiu
Vinamilk ang c giao dch trong khong t 90,500
n 97,500 ng/c phiu v chng ti thy c hi mua
vo mc gi thp nht trong khong gi ny.
Trong khi t l s hu nc ngoi gn chm trn (ch
cn li 0.9%, tng ng khong 1.6 triu c phiu),
phn nm gi ca nh u nc ngoi c giao dch rt
tch cc, to c hi cho cc t chc mua vo. Trong trung
hn ti di hn, Vinamilk s tip tc tng trng cng vi
ngnh sa v thm ch cn c th ginh thm th phn.
L mt c phiu blue chip thuc ngnh thc phm v
ung, c h tr bi mt thng hiu tt nht ti Vit
Nam,theo chng ti Vinamilk nn l mt c phiu ch cht
trong danh mc u t.

Do cng ty China Mengniu Dairy ca Trung Quc ang b

nh hng trm trng bi v b bi melamine, nn chng
ti cho rng cng ty ny khng tng ng so snh
v nh gi Vinamilk trong thi im hin ti. V vy chng
ti loi cng ty ny ra khi danh sch cc cng ty tng
ng Vinamilk trong khu vc chu .

Bo co cp nht
Cng ty C phn Sa Vit Nam (m c phiu VNM - HOSE)

July10
14h
2008
Ngy 1 thng
nm
2008

Khuyn co
Bo co ny c vit v pht hnh bi HSC hoc mt trong cc chi nhnh phn phi ti Vit Nam v nc ngoi. Cc thng tin
trong bo co c HSC xem l ng tin cy v da trn cc ngun thng tin cng b ra cng chng c xem l ng tin cy. Tuy
nhin, ngoi nhng thng tin v chnh Cng ty, HSC khng chu trch nhim v chnh xc ca nhng thng tin trong bo co ny.
Cc kin, d bo v c tnh ch th hin quan im ca ngi vit ti thi im pht hnh, khng c xem l quan im ca HSC
v c th thay i m khng cn thng bo. HSC khng c ngha v phi cp nht, sa i bo co ny di mi hnh thc cng nh
thng bo vi ngi c trong trng hp cc quan im, d bo v c tnh trong bo co ny thay i hoc tr nn khng chnh xc.
Thng tin trong bo co ny c thu thp t nhiu ngun khc nhau v chng ti khng m bo v s hon chnh cng nh chnh
xc ca thng tin.

Gi c v cc cng c ti chnh c th thay i m khng bo trc. HSC c th s dng cc nghin cu trong bo co ny cho hot
ng mua bn chng khon t doanh hoc mua bn chng khon cho cc qu m HSC ang qun l. HSC c th giao dch cho chnh
cng ty theo nhng gi v giao dch ngn hn ca cc chuyn gia phn tch trong bo co ny v cng c th tham gia vo cc giao
dch chng khon tri ngc vi kin t vn v quan im th hin trong bo co ny.
Cc thng tin cng nh kin trong bo co khng mang tnh cht mi cho mua hay bn bt c chng khon, quyn chn, hp ng
tng lai hay cng c phi sinh no. Cn b ca HSC c th c cc li ch ti chnh i vi cc chng khon v cc cng c ti chnh c
lin quan c cp trong bo co. Bo co nghin cu ny c vit vi mc tiu cung cp nhng thng tin khi qut. Bo co ny
khng nhm ti nhng mc tiu u t c th, tnh trng ti chnh c th hay nhu cu c th ca bt k ngi no nhn c hoc c
bo co ny. Nh u t phi lu rng gi chng khon lun bin ng, c th ln hoc xung. Nhng din bin trong qu kh, nu
c, khng hm cho nhng kt qu tng lai.
Cc cng c ti chnh c cp trong bo co c th s khng ph hp vi tt c nh u t. Nh u t phi c quyt nh ca ring
mnh bng cch tham kho cc nh t vn ti chnh c lp nu cn thit v da trn tnh hnh ti chnh v mc tiu u t c th ca
mnh. Khng ai c php sao chp, ti sn xut, pht hnh cng nh ti phn phi bo co v bt k mc ch no nu khng c vn
bn chp thun ca HSC. Xin vui lng ghi r ngun khi trch dn cc thng tin trong bo co ny.

Trn Hng M
my.th@hsc.com.vn
in thoi: 84 (0) 913 960 879

Cng ty C phn Chng Khon TPHCM

Lu 1,2,3, Ta nh Capital Place
6 Thi Vn Lung, Q. 1, TPHCM
Tel: (84 8) 823 3299
Fax: (84 8) 823 3301
www.hsc.com.vn